The Detroit Lions placed RB Kevin Jones on PUP with an injured foot.
KJ still isn't healthy enough to play, and the Lions are doing the smart thing here by allowing him 6 additional weeks of rest and hoping he's available by week 6. KJ continues to mend from the Lisfranc foot fracture he suffered last year.
Fantasy Impact: None that wasn't expected. Tatum Bell will start and have the most fantasy value, and he'll continue to start until KJ returns unless he gets hurt. He's a solid RB3/Flex player with upside to be an RB2 depending on how many carries he'll get. Bell has had problems in short yardage and goal line situations, so the Lions also signed T.J. Duckett over the offseason to fill that role as he did for the Atlanta Falcons prior to his trade to the Redskins. Favor Duckett in TD-heavy leagues, although this just further confirms that the Lions will be throwing as much as any team in the NFL this season.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
RB Depth Chart Update
As we close in on week 1 of the NFL season, I wanted to run down the RB situation for each team again.
Buffalo Bills - Starter: Marshawn Lynch, Backup: Anthony Thomas
Marshawn Lynch has received solid work in the preseason, and while he definitely has some skills, his offensive line is really a problem. Plus, Jauron has talked about a committee. Lynch is nothing more than a RB3 as of right now, but I still expect him to receive more carries than Anthony Thomas.
Miami Dolphins - Starter: Ronnie Brown, Backup: Jesse Chatman
Ronnie Brown has looked impressive in spurts, but much like Buffalo, his offensive line is truly offensive. Cam Cameron seems intent on motivating Brown by publically claiming not to have chosen his starter yet. There's no doubt in m mind that it will be Brown, but this appears to be the third year in a row that he'll be held back by the talent around him. He could emerge as a buy-low candidate once the season gets going as the team acclimates itself to a new offensive system.
New England Patriots - Starter: Laurence Maroney, Backup: Sammy Morris
Laurence Maroney shed the non-contact jersey and also put in a nice workload in his first preseason game, carrying the ball 15 times. He's ready to roll and should put up good numbers in what appears to be an explosive offense. He better stay effective in the redzone as Morris is a powerful back who remains a threat to take the redzone carries in NE's share-the-wealth offensive system.
New York Jets - Starter: Thomas Jones, Backup: Leon Washington
Thomas Jones suffered a calf injury during the preseason, but he appears to be fine and should be ready for week 1. His all-around skills will keep him on the field for most of the game, and he was an effective redzone runner in his stay with the Bears. Washington remains an explosive backup, but should only be used as a change-of-pace RB.
Baltimore Ravens - Starter: Willis McGahee, Backup: Mike Anderson
Willis McGahee has reported been very impressive in redzone drills during the preseason, but Baltimore beat reporters say that he stills lacks explosiveness. If they're correct, then don't expect to see many big plays out of McGahee this year. Regardless of that fact, he remains the unquestioned starter on this team with reliable veteran Mike Anderson backing him up.
Cincinnati Bengals - Starter: Rudi Johnson, Backup: Kenny Watson
Rudi Johnson is in store for another large workload, although one must wonder if he can play yet another 16 game season of 325+ carries. However, the fact is that he has handled the large workload just fine so far in his career, and the offense around him should be great. Watson will be used as a 3rd down back, but he probably won't receive all the carries should Rudi get hurt.
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Jamal Lewis, Backup: Jason Wright/Jerome Harrison
This probably the most talent-bereft backfield in all of football. Lewis claims that he's over his ankle injury, but he looks just about done judging from his last 2 seasons of work. He remains the unquestioned starter, however. Should Lewis get hurt, a committee of Wright and Harrison would take his place.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Starter: Willie Parker, Backup: Najeh Davenport
Willie Parker should benefit from the new offensive system that spreads the field more, which plays to his strength of outrunning everyone. Plus, he'll probably be more involved in the passing game as new coordinator Bruce Arians loves to use all options on the field. Davenport is a fine backup who is talented in his own right, but often hurt. If Parker struggles again in goal line work this season, look for the Steelers to find an alternative goal line RB.
Houston Texans - Starter: Ahman Green, Backup: Ron Dayne
Ahman Green should remain a fairly valuable starter while healthy, but at age 30 with a fairly large workload and several injuries in his past, one has to wonder if he'll play 16 games this season. Odds are strong against that. The Texans' offense this year should play to his strength, although rumors about Dayne being used around the goal line persist. Dayne would be a fairly productive RB if Green went down.
Indianapolis Colts - Starter: Joseph Addai, Backup: DeDe Dorsey
Joseph Addai will put his all-around skills on display for 320+ touches this season, and only his durability remains a question. He'll be on the field the majority of the time, and when he's not, it sounds like DeDe Dorsey will spell him. Dorsey and Kenton Keith are battling for the backup spot, but it seems as though Dorsey will get that job. Should Addai go down, Dorsey should be a solid option.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Starter: Fred Taylor, Backup: Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jaguars didn't pay Fred Taylor $5 million to come back this year to sit on the bench, so he's being very overlooked in drafts this year, currently carrying a 7.11 ADP value. Taylor is still the starter of this team, and still a talented one at that. Jones-Drew will be used on 3rd downs, but his goal line role is undefined with the return of Greg Jones. Taylor should remain healthier than usual being spelled more often by Jones-Drew as evidenced by last season. If Taylor went down, Jones-Drew would become a fantasy stud, however.
Tennessee Titans - RBBC : LenDale White and Chris Brown
Jeff Fisher seemed impressed with Chris Brown's work so far in the preseason, and he has stated that this will be a committee with him and LenDale White. White is far more suited to be a 300 carry RB than Chris Brown is, but his conditioning and knack for minor injuries is holding him back. White will have every chance to win this job outright, but consider it RBBC to start the season. Chris Brown should be the 3rd down back regardless.
Denver Broncos - Starter: Travis Henry, Backup: Mike Bell
Travis Henry tweaked his knee in the preseason, but all signs point to him being 100% for week 1. Mike Bell also suffered an injury of his own to his hip, but he has also returned to practice and appears ready for the start of the season. Henry is the unquestioned starter of this team, but Bell will get more work than most backups due to Denver's love of running the ball. If Henry went down, Bell would be a very good fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs - Starter: Larry Johnson, Backup: Michael Bennett
Who really believed that Larry Johnson was going to holdout? He's signed and ready for a bit of action in the final preseason game, so he should be 100% ready to go for week 1. The Chiefs want to ease off of him a bit this year, and given his 416 carries last year, that obviously seems like a good idea. Bennett remains the backup for now, but given his incredibly unreliable he is, Kolby Smith should overtake him at some point. If LJ went down, it would probably be a RBBC until Smith outplayed Bennett enough to take the carries from him.
Oakland Raiders - Starter: LaMont Jordan, Backup: Justin Fargas (until week 6), Dominic Rhodes (after week 6)
LaMont Jordan has looked explosive in the preseason so far, so it appears that he's over the bcak injury that plagued him over the summer somewhat. It remains a bit of a concern going forward as most back injuries would, but he looks fine on the field. Jordan definitely has the talent to take this job over in the first 4 weeks while Rhodes is suspended, and as long as he stays healthy, I expect him to do so. Rhodes averaged 3.4 YPC in a great Indy offense last year (Addai posted a 4.8 YPC), so I fail to see how he'd be a superior option. He's an all-around back that should be on the field most of the game, and Rhodes would take over after his suspension if an injury would befall Jordan.
San Diego Chargers - Starter: LaDainian Tomlinson, Backup: Michael Turner
Any questions here? I didn't think so. Turner suffered what some believed to be the dreaded high ankle sprain in the last preseason game, but recent reports have given a more positive diagnosis. Turner is questionable for week 1, and should LT go down while Turner is not 100%, Darren Sproles would take over. Sproles is explosive, but he doesn't possess the size to be a 25 carry RB.
Dallas Cowboys - Starter: Julius Jones, Backup: Marion Barber III
Julius Jones is still the starter of this team with the new coaching staff, and he might actually get more work than under Parcells where he was pulled in 3rd down and goal line situations. Jones won't get all the touches like most unquestioned starters would as Barber will still play plenty on 3rd downs and around the goal line, but their roles don't seem to be as clearly defined as last year. If Jones were to get hurt, Barber would be a very valuable fantasy commodity.
New York Giants - Starter: Brandon Jacobs, Backup: Derrick Ward/Ryan Grant
If you didn't believe me before, you will now. Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter of this team, and the Giants are actually moving Reuben Droughns back to the fullback position that he played in Detroit. That should provide the Giants with some flexibility on their playcalling with both on the field. Should Jacobs go down, it appears as though some committee between Derrick Ward and Ryan Grant would form, although you can't rule out the possibility of the Giants moving Droughns back to RB at that point.
Philadelphia - Starter: Brian Westbrook, Backup: Correll Buckhalter
Brian Westbrook remains the multi-talented, unquestioned starter who will line up all over the field and be used in a variety of ways. The backup situation is a bit muddled, but the Eagles have stated that Buckhalter will resume his role as the primary backup RB. Rookie Tony Hunt should also be used as the Eagles like to do different things of offense, and Hunt also remains a candidate to take goal line carries this year. The goal line situation is a big question mark here.
Washington Redskins - Starter: Clinton Portis, Backup: Ladell Betts
Clinton Portis has been battling knee tendonitis for some time now, but the Redskins state that he could have played more in the preseason, and also that he's in line for a few carries in their last preseason game. Portis is the unquestioned starter if he's healthy, but that's a big if right now. We all saw what Betts could do last year as the starter, and he remains the unquestioned backup RB who would be very valuable if Portis goes down again. He'll probably receive more work than most backups depending on Portis' knee.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Cedric Benson, Backup: Adrian Peterson
Cedric Benson gets his wish as the unquestioned starter, but he'll give way on 3rd downs to a combination of Peterson and Wolfe depending on the play being called. He should get plenty of touches, but it remains a question what exactly he'll do with them. He's looked sluggish and unexplosive in my eyes, but perhaps he's saving himself for the regular season. I can only hope. Peterson has retained the backup position over rookie Garrett Wolfe, and he'd likely be a solid fantasy RB should Benson get hurt.
Detroit Lions - Starter: Tatum Bell, Backup: T.J. Duckett
Kevin Jones' health remains a mystery, and he's scheduled to see a doctor on Thursday to see if he'll be medically cleared. It would be a shock if he didn't start the year on PUP. Until he returns, Tatum Bell will be the primary ball carrier while Duckett steals short yardage and goal line carries. Once KJ returns, his role will be determined by exactly how healthy it is. As you can see, this situation is a bit of a mess.
Green Bay Packers - Starter: Brandon Jackson, Backup: Vernand Morency
Brandon Jackson has won the starting job if for no other reason than Morency hurting his knee very early in preseason. Jackson also hurt himself, suffering a concussion in the last preseason game. He'll be held out of the final preseason game, but appears ready to roll in week 1. Morency's status for week 1 is questionable, and Jackson will receive the majority of carries and a chance to win the job outright depending on how he performs. Morency would likely be at least a 3rd down back when he returns, which is what he's best suited for.
Minnesota Vikings - RBBC: Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson
Chester will technically remain the starter for the Vikings, but Peterson was clearly a very impressive runner and showed off his talent as well. They will split carries in some fashion with a slight edge to Chester to start the season, but if the Vikings season goes in the tank early, expect Peterson to start getting more carries. Peterson has obviously been medically cleared regarding his collarbone, but it's a smart move here to continue using Chester and breaking Peterson into the NFL game slowly. They'll have to run the ball a lot to stay in games and protect raw QB Tavaris Jackson.
Atlanta Falcons - Starter: Warrick Dunn, Backup: Jerious Norwood
Warrick Dunn will start week 1 as the coaching staff seems to prefer the veteran at this point. Dunn came back incredibly quick after back surgery, but he looked horrible in his first preseason game. He's not in shape yet, but that hasn't deterred Petrino from naming Dunn the week 1 starter. I just can't see that lasting very long, and I expect Norwood to take over at some point as the team's starter once he proves that he's better on the field. Dunn has been a great NFL RB, especially for his size, but I don't think he has it anymore, and he's not a good fit for this new offensive system.
Carolina Panthers - Starter: DeShaun Foster, Backup: DeAngelo Williams
Foster has run fairly well in the preseason and has maintained his starter's status. He should run for a higher YPC this year while he's healthy as the new zone-blocking technique that Carolina has implemented plays to his quickness. Williams is no doubt the better talent, but John Fox has remain loyal to his veteran, and just like Fred Taylor, he wasn't re-signed to sit on the bench. Williams will play more than most backups, especially on 3rd down, but unless he blows Fox's socks off while in the game, this is Foster's job.
New Orleans Saints - RBBC: Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush
This will be a full blown RBBC, but McAllister should take most of the goal line work, and Bush should take most of the 3rd down work. This is probably the most jumbled of all RBBCs as Bush will be involved around the goal line as well, McAllister is not a bad pass catching back, Bush will be lined up all over the field, and both will be on the field at the same time in certain packages. As I stated before, expect more of the same as last year, but also expect Bush to get more touches this year as McAllister should slowly give way to him. If one gets hurt, the other would gain a lot of value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Starter: Cadillac Williams, Backup: Michael Pittman
Cadillac has solidified the starting job here, and Tampa Bay hasn't used him much in the preseason, just like his rookie year. Gruden wanted Williams to become a 3 down back, but reports are that he's dropping too many passes in practice, and that Pittman will likely resume his role as the 3rd down back. Alstott has retired, so Williams will be used around the goal line far more often, giving his value a boost. Should Williams go down, Pittman would become a fairly solid fantasy RB.
Arizona Cardinals - Starter: Edgerrin James, Backup: Marcel Shipp
Edgerrin James is the unquestioned starter, but the questionable part of his role is the goal line work. There's been rumors that Wisenhunt prefers Marcel Shipp around paydirt, and Edgerrin's already depressed value given his age and career workload would take another hit if that plays out. It's something to monitor, and Shipp would like split 3rd down duties with J.J. Arrington if Edge were to go down. Edge remains the preferred 3rd down back due to his impressive passing game skills.
Seattle Seahawks - Starter: Shaun Alexander, Backup: Maurice Morris
Shaun Alexander returns as the unquestioned stater, and Morris remains the boring but fairly reliable backup. Alexander's career workload and performance last season after he returned from the cracked foot (he simply put up good numbers via pure volume) make him a questionable bet to finish the season, so Morris will likely make at least one start during the season. Morris will also continue his work on 3rd down situations.
San Francisco 49ers - Starter: Frank Gore, Backup: Maurice Hicks
Frank Gore owners received a scare when he broke his hand in the offseason prior to the start of preseason, but he's continued working out as much as possible prior to the season and should be 100% by week 1. There were rumors that he'd play some in the preseason finale, but there's no reason for the 49ers to risk him in a meaningless game. If Gore were to miss time, Hicks is techincally the backup, but I imagine Michael Robinson would split work with him in some fashion.
St. Louis Rams - Starter: Steven Jackson, Backup: Brian Leonard
Steven Jackson barely saw the field in the preseason, much like LT does each season, and it's a good idea given the workload he took on last season. He remains the unquestioned starter and all-world talent on a great offense. If Jackson got hurt, Leonard would assume the starting position and likely post great numbers. He didn't have a big time college career, but he possesses great all-around skills and looked solid in the preseason.
Buffalo Bills - Starter: Marshawn Lynch, Backup: Anthony Thomas
Marshawn Lynch has received solid work in the preseason, and while he definitely has some skills, his offensive line is really a problem. Plus, Jauron has talked about a committee. Lynch is nothing more than a RB3 as of right now, but I still expect him to receive more carries than Anthony Thomas.
Miami Dolphins - Starter: Ronnie Brown, Backup: Jesse Chatman
Ronnie Brown has looked impressive in spurts, but much like Buffalo, his offensive line is truly offensive. Cam Cameron seems intent on motivating Brown by publically claiming not to have chosen his starter yet. There's no doubt in m mind that it will be Brown, but this appears to be the third year in a row that he'll be held back by the talent around him. He could emerge as a buy-low candidate once the season gets going as the team acclimates itself to a new offensive system.
New England Patriots - Starter: Laurence Maroney, Backup: Sammy Morris
Laurence Maroney shed the non-contact jersey and also put in a nice workload in his first preseason game, carrying the ball 15 times. He's ready to roll and should put up good numbers in what appears to be an explosive offense. He better stay effective in the redzone as Morris is a powerful back who remains a threat to take the redzone carries in NE's share-the-wealth offensive system.
New York Jets - Starter: Thomas Jones, Backup: Leon Washington
Thomas Jones suffered a calf injury during the preseason, but he appears to be fine and should be ready for week 1. His all-around skills will keep him on the field for most of the game, and he was an effective redzone runner in his stay with the Bears. Washington remains an explosive backup, but should only be used as a change-of-pace RB.
Baltimore Ravens - Starter: Willis McGahee, Backup: Mike Anderson
Willis McGahee has reported been very impressive in redzone drills during the preseason, but Baltimore beat reporters say that he stills lacks explosiveness. If they're correct, then don't expect to see many big plays out of McGahee this year. Regardless of that fact, he remains the unquestioned starter on this team with reliable veteran Mike Anderson backing him up.
Cincinnati Bengals - Starter: Rudi Johnson, Backup: Kenny Watson
Rudi Johnson is in store for another large workload, although one must wonder if he can play yet another 16 game season of 325+ carries. However, the fact is that he has handled the large workload just fine so far in his career, and the offense around him should be great. Watson will be used as a 3rd down back, but he probably won't receive all the carries should Rudi get hurt.
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Jamal Lewis, Backup: Jason Wright/Jerome Harrison
This probably the most talent-bereft backfield in all of football. Lewis claims that he's over his ankle injury, but he looks just about done judging from his last 2 seasons of work. He remains the unquestioned starter, however. Should Lewis get hurt, a committee of Wright and Harrison would take his place.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Starter: Willie Parker, Backup: Najeh Davenport
Willie Parker should benefit from the new offensive system that spreads the field more, which plays to his strength of outrunning everyone. Plus, he'll probably be more involved in the passing game as new coordinator Bruce Arians loves to use all options on the field. Davenport is a fine backup who is talented in his own right, but often hurt. If Parker struggles again in goal line work this season, look for the Steelers to find an alternative goal line RB.
Houston Texans - Starter: Ahman Green, Backup: Ron Dayne
Ahman Green should remain a fairly valuable starter while healthy, but at age 30 with a fairly large workload and several injuries in his past, one has to wonder if he'll play 16 games this season. Odds are strong against that. The Texans' offense this year should play to his strength, although rumors about Dayne being used around the goal line persist. Dayne would be a fairly productive RB if Green went down.
Indianapolis Colts - Starter: Joseph Addai, Backup: DeDe Dorsey
Joseph Addai will put his all-around skills on display for 320+ touches this season, and only his durability remains a question. He'll be on the field the majority of the time, and when he's not, it sounds like DeDe Dorsey will spell him. Dorsey and Kenton Keith are battling for the backup spot, but it seems as though Dorsey will get that job. Should Addai go down, Dorsey should be a solid option.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Starter: Fred Taylor, Backup: Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jaguars didn't pay Fred Taylor $5 million to come back this year to sit on the bench, so he's being very overlooked in drafts this year, currently carrying a 7.11 ADP value. Taylor is still the starter of this team, and still a talented one at that. Jones-Drew will be used on 3rd downs, but his goal line role is undefined with the return of Greg Jones. Taylor should remain healthier than usual being spelled more often by Jones-Drew as evidenced by last season. If Taylor went down, Jones-Drew would become a fantasy stud, however.
Tennessee Titans - RBBC : LenDale White and Chris Brown
Jeff Fisher seemed impressed with Chris Brown's work so far in the preseason, and he has stated that this will be a committee with him and LenDale White. White is far more suited to be a 300 carry RB than Chris Brown is, but his conditioning and knack for minor injuries is holding him back. White will have every chance to win this job outright, but consider it RBBC to start the season. Chris Brown should be the 3rd down back regardless.
Denver Broncos - Starter: Travis Henry, Backup: Mike Bell
Travis Henry tweaked his knee in the preseason, but all signs point to him being 100% for week 1. Mike Bell also suffered an injury of his own to his hip, but he has also returned to practice and appears ready for the start of the season. Henry is the unquestioned starter of this team, but Bell will get more work than most backups due to Denver's love of running the ball. If Henry went down, Bell would be a very good fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs - Starter: Larry Johnson, Backup: Michael Bennett
Who really believed that Larry Johnson was going to holdout? He's signed and ready for a bit of action in the final preseason game, so he should be 100% ready to go for week 1. The Chiefs want to ease off of him a bit this year, and given his 416 carries last year, that obviously seems like a good idea. Bennett remains the backup for now, but given his incredibly unreliable he is, Kolby Smith should overtake him at some point. If LJ went down, it would probably be a RBBC until Smith outplayed Bennett enough to take the carries from him.
Oakland Raiders - Starter: LaMont Jordan, Backup: Justin Fargas (until week 6), Dominic Rhodes (after week 6)
LaMont Jordan has looked explosive in the preseason so far, so it appears that he's over the bcak injury that plagued him over the summer somewhat. It remains a bit of a concern going forward as most back injuries would, but he looks fine on the field. Jordan definitely has the talent to take this job over in the first 4 weeks while Rhodes is suspended, and as long as he stays healthy, I expect him to do so. Rhodes averaged 3.4 YPC in a great Indy offense last year (Addai posted a 4.8 YPC), so I fail to see how he'd be a superior option. He's an all-around back that should be on the field most of the game, and Rhodes would take over after his suspension if an injury would befall Jordan.
San Diego Chargers - Starter: LaDainian Tomlinson, Backup: Michael Turner
Any questions here? I didn't think so. Turner suffered what some believed to be the dreaded high ankle sprain in the last preseason game, but recent reports have given a more positive diagnosis. Turner is questionable for week 1, and should LT go down while Turner is not 100%, Darren Sproles would take over. Sproles is explosive, but he doesn't possess the size to be a 25 carry RB.
Dallas Cowboys - Starter: Julius Jones, Backup: Marion Barber III
Julius Jones is still the starter of this team with the new coaching staff, and he might actually get more work than under Parcells where he was pulled in 3rd down and goal line situations. Jones won't get all the touches like most unquestioned starters would as Barber will still play plenty on 3rd downs and around the goal line, but their roles don't seem to be as clearly defined as last year. If Jones were to get hurt, Barber would be a very valuable fantasy commodity.
New York Giants - Starter: Brandon Jacobs, Backup: Derrick Ward/Ryan Grant
If you didn't believe me before, you will now. Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter of this team, and the Giants are actually moving Reuben Droughns back to the fullback position that he played in Detroit. That should provide the Giants with some flexibility on their playcalling with both on the field. Should Jacobs go down, it appears as though some committee between Derrick Ward and Ryan Grant would form, although you can't rule out the possibility of the Giants moving Droughns back to RB at that point.
Philadelphia - Starter: Brian Westbrook, Backup: Correll Buckhalter
Brian Westbrook remains the multi-talented, unquestioned starter who will line up all over the field and be used in a variety of ways. The backup situation is a bit muddled, but the Eagles have stated that Buckhalter will resume his role as the primary backup RB. Rookie Tony Hunt should also be used as the Eagles like to do different things of offense, and Hunt also remains a candidate to take goal line carries this year. The goal line situation is a big question mark here.
Washington Redskins - Starter: Clinton Portis, Backup: Ladell Betts
Clinton Portis has been battling knee tendonitis for some time now, but the Redskins state that he could have played more in the preseason, and also that he's in line for a few carries in their last preseason game. Portis is the unquestioned starter if he's healthy, but that's a big if right now. We all saw what Betts could do last year as the starter, and he remains the unquestioned backup RB who would be very valuable if Portis goes down again. He'll probably receive more work than most backups depending on Portis' knee.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Cedric Benson, Backup: Adrian Peterson
Cedric Benson gets his wish as the unquestioned starter, but he'll give way on 3rd downs to a combination of Peterson and Wolfe depending on the play being called. He should get plenty of touches, but it remains a question what exactly he'll do with them. He's looked sluggish and unexplosive in my eyes, but perhaps he's saving himself for the regular season. I can only hope. Peterson has retained the backup position over rookie Garrett Wolfe, and he'd likely be a solid fantasy RB should Benson get hurt.
Detroit Lions - Starter: Tatum Bell, Backup: T.J. Duckett
Kevin Jones' health remains a mystery, and he's scheduled to see a doctor on Thursday to see if he'll be medically cleared. It would be a shock if he didn't start the year on PUP. Until he returns, Tatum Bell will be the primary ball carrier while Duckett steals short yardage and goal line carries. Once KJ returns, his role will be determined by exactly how healthy it is. As you can see, this situation is a bit of a mess.
Green Bay Packers - Starter: Brandon Jackson, Backup: Vernand Morency
Brandon Jackson has won the starting job if for no other reason than Morency hurting his knee very early in preseason. Jackson also hurt himself, suffering a concussion in the last preseason game. He'll be held out of the final preseason game, but appears ready to roll in week 1. Morency's status for week 1 is questionable, and Jackson will receive the majority of carries and a chance to win the job outright depending on how he performs. Morency would likely be at least a 3rd down back when he returns, which is what he's best suited for.
Minnesota Vikings - RBBC: Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson
Chester will technically remain the starter for the Vikings, but Peterson was clearly a very impressive runner and showed off his talent as well. They will split carries in some fashion with a slight edge to Chester to start the season, but if the Vikings season goes in the tank early, expect Peterson to start getting more carries. Peterson has obviously been medically cleared regarding his collarbone, but it's a smart move here to continue using Chester and breaking Peterson into the NFL game slowly. They'll have to run the ball a lot to stay in games and protect raw QB Tavaris Jackson.
Atlanta Falcons - Starter: Warrick Dunn, Backup: Jerious Norwood
Warrick Dunn will start week 1 as the coaching staff seems to prefer the veteran at this point. Dunn came back incredibly quick after back surgery, but he looked horrible in his first preseason game. He's not in shape yet, but that hasn't deterred Petrino from naming Dunn the week 1 starter. I just can't see that lasting very long, and I expect Norwood to take over at some point as the team's starter once he proves that he's better on the field. Dunn has been a great NFL RB, especially for his size, but I don't think he has it anymore, and he's not a good fit for this new offensive system.
Carolina Panthers - Starter: DeShaun Foster, Backup: DeAngelo Williams
Foster has run fairly well in the preseason and has maintained his starter's status. He should run for a higher YPC this year while he's healthy as the new zone-blocking technique that Carolina has implemented plays to his quickness. Williams is no doubt the better talent, but John Fox has remain loyal to his veteran, and just like Fred Taylor, he wasn't re-signed to sit on the bench. Williams will play more than most backups, especially on 3rd down, but unless he blows Fox's socks off while in the game, this is Foster's job.
New Orleans Saints - RBBC: Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush
This will be a full blown RBBC, but McAllister should take most of the goal line work, and Bush should take most of the 3rd down work. This is probably the most jumbled of all RBBCs as Bush will be involved around the goal line as well, McAllister is not a bad pass catching back, Bush will be lined up all over the field, and both will be on the field at the same time in certain packages. As I stated before, expect more of the same as last year, but also expect Bush to get more touches this year as McAllister should slowly give way to him. If one gets hurt, the other would gain a lot of value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Starter: Cadillac Williams, Backup: Michael Pittman
Cadillac has solidified the starting job here, and Tampa Bay hasn't used him much in the preseason, just like his rookie year. Gruden wanted Williams to become a 3 down back, but reports are that he's dropping too many passes in practice, and that Pittman will likely resume his role as the 3rd down back. Alstott has retired, so Williams will be used around the goal line far more often, giving his value a boost. Should Williams go down, Pittman would become a fairly solid fantasy RB.
Arizona Cardinals - Starter: Edgerrin James, Backup: Marcel Shipp
Edgerrin James is the unquestioned starter, but the questionable part of his role is the goal line work. There's been rumors that Wisenhunt prefers Marcel Shipp around paydirt, and Edgerrin's already depressed value given his age and career workload would take another hit if that plays out. It's something to monitor, and Shipp would like split 3rd down duties with J.J. Arrington if Edge were to go down. Edge remains the preferred 3rd down back due to his impressive passing game skills.
Seattle Seahawks - Starter: Shaun Alexander, Backup: Maurice Morris
Shaun Alexander returns as the unquestioned stater, and Morris remains the boring but fairly reliable backup. Alexander's career workload and performance last season after he returned from the cracked foot (he simply put up good numbers via pure volume) make him a questionable bet to finish the season, so Morris will likely make at least one start during the season. Morris will also continue his work on 3rd down situations.
San Francisco 49ers - Starter: Frank Gore, Backup: Maurice Hicks
Frank Gore owners received a scare when he broke his hand in the offseason prior to the start of preseason, but he's continued working out as much as possible prior to the season and should be 100% by week 1. There were rumors that he'd play some in the preseason finale, but there's no reason for the 49ers to risk him in a meaningless game. If Gore were to miss time, Hicks is techincally the backup, but I imagine Michael Robinson would split work with him in some fashion.
St. Louis Rams - Starter: Steven Jackson, Backup: Brian Leonard
Steven Jackson barely saw the field in the preseason, much like LT does each season, and it's a good idea given the workload he took on last season. He remains the unquestioned starter and all-world talent on a great offense. If Jackson got hurt, Leonard would assume the starting position and likely post great numbers. He didn't have a big time college career, but he possesses great all-around skills and looked solid in the preseason.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Torry Holt's Knee
St. Louis Rams WR Torry Holt's knee is starting to become a serious problem. He estimates that he's only 70-80% healthy, and he also stated that he wasn't sure if it would ever heal all the way. This is a problem that he's been dealing with for about 2 years now. He had offseason surgery on it, but his knee clearly has not recovered yet.
Fantasy Impact: I would avoid taking him in the 2nd round as your WR1 as his ADP is 2.10. There are plenty of WR1s being taken in the same vicinity of Holt such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Terrell Owens. All have similar upside, and none of them have current health issues. Take any one of them before Holt and let someone else gamble that Holt will be his usual self this year. Holt might end up being fine, but why take the risk with your top WR?
The other person affected here is Marc Bulger. If Holt isn't 100%, Bulger loses big production from one of the best WRs in football and obviously his favorite target. Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett are quality options, but Bruce is aging, and Bennett is overrated as a true starter. The Rams offense won't be quite the same, and that leads me to believe that Bulger would suffer from it. More of the offense might go through Steven Jackson. Bulger will still have solid options, but he becomes a riskier pick, and you have to factor that in if you're going to use your 4th rounder on him. It might be wiser to use that on a WR2 instead, and go after a better value pick at the QB position a bit later in the draft.
Fantasy Impact: I would avoid taking him in the 2nd round as your WR1 as his ADP is 2.10. There are plenty of WR1s being taken in the same vicinity of Holt such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Terrell Owens. All have similar upside, and none of them have current health issues. Take any one of them before Holt and let someone else gamble that Holt will be his usual self this year. Holt might end up being fine, but why take the risk with your top WR?
The other person affected here is Marc Bulger. If Holt isn't 100%, Bulger loses big production from one of the best WRs in football and obviously his favorite target. Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett are quality options, but Bruce is aging, and Bennett is overrated as a true starter. The Rams offense won't be quite the same, and that leads me to believe that Bulger would suffer from it. More of the offense might go through Steven Jackson. Bulger will still have solid options, but he becomes a riskier pick, and you have to factor that in if you're going to use your 4th rounder on him. It might be wiser to use that on a WR2 instead, and go after a better value pick at the QB position a bit later in the draft.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Fantasy Football QB Analysis
I'm going to note the ADP for each QB that I believe are viable starting QBs in your standard 12 team, 1 starting QB league. Like I've said before, it's not about ranking players, but it's about analyzing where players are going and whether or not they're worth the price you have to pay to acquire them. The 1st number is the round, followed by a dot, and then the 2nd number is the pick in the round.
1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year. I'm not a fan of taking a QB this early, especially this year when there are less RBs with 300 carry potential due to the growing popularity of the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) strategy. This ADP might be inflated by people who take him very early, however. I would not want to take Manning over clearcut starters like Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs due to the reason I outlined above. All of those RBs have top 10 potential. I understand the certainty that you're paying for with him, but QB is usually deeper than most people think, and if you're starting only one QB versus 2 RBs (possibly 3 with a flex), you need those RBs to field a strong lineup. I would happily take Manning once you get down to the Shaun Alexander (although he goes way higher than I'd take him), Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson type RBs, however. Manning is a better bet than those guys who are available around the same time. I'd also take Manning over every WR. That being said, I won't own him in any league this year thanks to his high price tag.
3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning. If you want to take a QB this high, I'd happily take Palmer in the 3rd round. He's 100% this year after having that time to recover from the knee injury suffered in the 2005 playoffs, and his much stronger 2nd half last year proved it once he finally got comfortable again. Moving forward, I think it'll be hard to tell Palmer and Manning apart stats-wise, which makes Palmer a much better pick. His WRs are just as talented as Manning's are. Imagine having LT or Steven Jackson plus Palmer. Now that's a foundation.
3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year. Brady plays in a very spread-the-wealth offense, and given that he's surrounded by the best talent of his career with the additions of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, plus TE Ben Watson, he's never had so many weapons, especially downfield receivers. There's a good chance that he'll turn in one of the finest seasons of his career and he could give Manning and Palmer a run for their money, but he's going to have to finish #3 to warrant this pick. He's a solid option here, although I'd prefer him a bit better in the 4th round.
3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year. He had one of the most surprising rebound seasons in recent memory last year, including an incredible stretch of 5 straight 300+ yard passing games. He's going to have to repeat his career season in order to justify that ADP, and it's hard to ask someone to have 2 consecutive career seasons. Joe Horn is gone, and while he was injured last year and the Saints were in too much of a groove to notice, don't underestimate the savvy veteran's impact on the team. I know Colston filled in just fine for a while, but it's a lot to ask a 2nd year WR to become the focal point of the passing game and stay among the NFL's best. You're not getting any value here as his ceiling will be the only thing that makes him worth taking this high. Plus with Bush's better knowledge of how to run at the NFL level, the Saints should take advantage of their talented RBs to keep their suspect defense off the field a bit more.
4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year. He had a terrific year last year, finally staying healthy for 16 games, and he thrived in Linehan's offense. He didn't throw an INT until week 6. The Rams added Drew Bennett to the slot, and they also added Randy McMichael as a passing game presence at the TE position. The Rams were pass-happy in the redzone, although given the effectiveness of Steven Jackson down the stretch around the goal line, I don't expect them to throw quite so much around the goal line this year. Still, with a great pass catching RB, added weapons in the passing game, and a solid offensive system, Bulger looks set to repeat last season's numbers. A warning though...don't forget about Holt's troublesome knee. He's the key to this powerful offense, and Bulger would go from solid value to a bit over-valued if Holt continues to struggle with that injury.
4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value. Last year, we saw Carson Palmer start off cold until he became re-adjusted to the pocket. We also saw Daunte Culpepper look absolutely brutal before shutting it down, but his knee injury was a lot more serious than McNabb's. All preseason reports on McNabb have been good as he looks comfortable in the pocket and his throws look strong. He was the #1 fantasy player last year before going down, putting up a huge season like what happened to him back in 2002. I doubt he runs anywhere close to what he usually does, but even as just a passer, he's arguably a top 5 QB. Westbrook is amazing out of the backfield, Reggie Brown has another year of experience, and they replaced the injury-prone Stallworth with an equally fast, smarter, and more durable Kevin Curtis. Expecting a slow start isn't a bad idea, but he'll be just fine when it counts. Make sure to take a backup higher than the other top guys if you select him due to the injury history.
6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year. Kitna looked like a more injury-prone Marc Bulger last season. He makes too many stupid throws and is careless with the ball in the pocket at times, but he threw for a ton of yards and should find the endzone plenty this year. Kevin Jones is probably headed to the PUP list and is replaced by Tatum Bell. Bell is far less reliable out of the backfield, so expect even more passing. The Lions added Calvin Johnson, who is arguably the most physically gifted WR to come out of college. His blend of size and speed is unheard of, and he's a hard-working, smart player to boot. Expect a much smaller learning curve for him as compared to most rookies, and he'll immediately become a huge upgrade opposite the equally-talented Roy Williams. Furrey, a wonderful safety valve, was re-signed and moves to the slot which suits his skills much better. With the upgraded talent and the reliance on the passing game, only health with prevent Kitna from putting up a big year.
6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year. He's coming off a disasterous season, but fantasy owners obviously expect a rebound by drafting him as the 8th QB off the board. The Seattle system is very good for producing solid fantasy numbers. While having Deion Branch in their offense will definitely help improve the chemistry between him and Hasselbeck, he'll be flanked by D.J. Hackett. Branch and Hackett are good system receivers, but they just don't possess the type of talent that Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson had. Alexander is non-existant out of the backfield in the passing game, and Marcus Pollard is an aging, decent option at TE. I think Hasselbeck will be solid, but I don't see any upside here.
7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year. Fantasy owners must not think he was for real last season, or else he'd be going ahead of Hasselbeck. He easily put up top 10 numbers in the 12 weeks that he played, and he's only going to get better. Terrell Owens remains a bit of a risk as a #1 WR, but he should drop less passes this year after fixing the torn tendon in his finger. He's still a monster in the redzone. Glenn is a solid #2, and while he's a big health risk, I believe Patrick Crayton can easily fill his role in the offense if necessary. Witten provides a very good TE in the passing game, and Barber is great out of the backfield. The weapons are there, and Romo should capitalize with a solid season. He also provides a bit of value on the ground as he's a very mobile QB despite not being fast.
7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued. He had an incredible first season that exceeded all expectations, but I don't think he has the talent around him at the WR position that will allow him to take the next step. LT is incredible out of the backfield, and Norv Turner loves throwing to his RBs. Antonio Gates is the best TE in football. Vincent Jackson is an emerging deep threat, but his all-around game needs work and he doesn't have much on-field experience yet. Rookie Craig Davis flanks him, and while his speed is great, his hands remain suspect, and he's replacing the reliable, if unspectacular Eric Parker who's out at least 6 weeks with a broken foot. He's a fairly solid choice, but like with Hasselbeck, I don't see much further upside.
8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued. I question him as a starting fantasy QB this year, but that's exactly what he's being drafted as. His ceiling is higher than that of Michael Vick's thanks to his better work ethic and leadership qualities, but much like Vick, the weapons around him are subpar at best. He'll make up for the lack of passing yards with the rushing numbers, but exactly how much he'll be able to make up is the question. It should at least keep him fairly consistent from week to week. With a WR corp that includes the talented but struggling Brandon Jones, the aging Eric Moulds, and the inexperienced Roydell Williams, things don't look good. Bo Scaife is a solid TE and possibly the most reliable receiver on the team. Young has incredible upside for the future, but his surrounding cast will continue to limit his present upside. The only thing that holds me back from completely avoiding him is his incredible ability to prove all doubters wrong at every level.
8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value. He's being drafted as a fringe starter, and I think that's his downside this season. Arizona's new coaching staff is from the old Pittsburgh regime under Bill Cowher, so while they'll work to build around the running game, there's just too much offensive talent here in the passing game not to use it. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin form the most physically talented WR duo in the NFL, and Bryant Johnson has been an adequate 3rd WR. They don't have much in the way of TEs, but the Steeler's offense under Ken Wisenhunt severely under-used Heath Miller, so it's not much of a loss. Edgerrin James is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield. Leinart should take a step forward this year, and he has a smart offensive mind that's backing him. It remains to be seen how stubborn Wisenhunt will be with the running game this year given the questionable offensive line to see exactly how much Leinart will throw, which directly correlates to fantasy value. Still, there's a lot to like here.
9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value. He's also being drafted as a fringe starter, and I also believe that's his downside this season. Shanahan immediately trusted Cutler more than Plummer last year, and he threw for 2 TDs in his first 4 starts. Javon Walker is one of the game's best deep threats, and Cutler has a cannon for an arm. The only problem is the 2nd WR slot. Brandon Marshall is immensley talented, but he's raw and still learning the NFL game. Rod Smith will start the season on the PUP list, and that will hurt as having a savvy veteran WR as a safety valve is a great thing for a QB. The Broncos signed Daniel Graham, and while he's a blocking specialist, he's still a solid option as a receiver. Tony Scheffler will play plenty in 2 TE sets, and Cutler showed off his chemistry with Scheffler down the stretch last year. Shannahan has a great system and I'd be surprised if Cutler didn't finish in the top 12 QBs at least come year's end, with the possibility of a huge leap still an option.
9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value. His value fell from last year when many expected him to become among the fantasy elite. I believe last year is his The Giants remained among the biggest jokes in football this offseason as it was marred by Tiki's retirement and slams against the team, Burress and Shockey spending too much time training on their own instead of building a chemistry with their QB, and the loss of LT Luke Pettigout who arguably received more criticism than he deserved as he was solid protecting Manning's blindside. Eli returns with a new LT, a new RB in Brandon Jacobs who is underrated in the passing game, and hopefully a new attitude towards being a leader. Burress remains a tremendous deep option, although he's still not a well-rounded WR. Toomer returns from a torn ACL, but at his age it remains to be seen how well he'll recover. A underrated addition was the drafting of WR Steve Smith, who will eventually turn into a very good NFL receiver and a reliable target for Manning. Toomer and Smith will be the keys to what sort of upside Manning has the season, but it figures to continue getting better for Eli.
10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season. Throw last year out the window as it was ruined by his motorcycle accident. Former offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt and former line coach Russ Grimm stated that they believed the Steelers rushed Big Ben back onto the field when he wasn't ready, and I think his performance proves that. Given Roethlisberger was a very efficient QB his first two seasons, his performance last year as an interception-prone QB with a 75.4 QB rating was a complete anomaly. He had posted 2 straight seasons with a QB rating right at 98 prior to that, so it's painfully clear that his head was not in the game last season. Big Ben was a top 5 fantasy QB during the last 12 weeks of the 2006 season, amazingly enough. Mike Tomlin is the new head coach and Bruce Arians takes over as offensive coordinator. Gone are the grind-it-out days of the Cowher regime...Arians loves to spread the field and throw the ball. With the steady Hines Ward, the emerging Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington, and the under-utilized Heath Miller at TE, the Steelers have quality receiving options, and Willie Parker will be thrown to more as well. With a pick this late, there's nothing but upside here.
1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year. I'm not a fan of taking a QB this early, especially this year when there are less RBs with 300 carry potential due to the growing popularity of the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) strategy. This ADP might be inflated by people who take him very early, however. I would not want to take Manning over clearcut starters like Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs due to the reason I outlined above. All of those RBs have top 10 potential. I understand the certainty that you're paying for with him, but QB is usually deeper than most people think, and if you're starting only one QB versus 2 RBs (possibly 3 with a flex), you need those RBs to field a strong lineup. I would happily take Manning once you get down to the Shaun Alexander (although he goes way higher than I'd take him), Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson type RBs, however. Manning is a better bet than those guys who are available around the same time. I'd also take Manning over every WR. That being said, I won't own him in any league this year thanks to his high price tag.
3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning. If you want to take a QB this high, I'd happily take Palmer in the 3rd round. He's 100% this year after having that time to recover from the knee injury suffered in the 2005 playoffs, and his much stronger 2nd half last year proved it once he finally got comfortable again. Moving forward, I think it'll be hard to tell Palmer and Manning apart stats-wise, which makes Palmer a much better pick. His WRs are just as talented as Manning's are. Imagine having LT or Steven Jackson plus Palmer. Now that's a foundation.
3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year. Brady plays in a very spread-the-wealth offense, and given that he's surrounded by the best talent of his career with the additions of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, plus TE Ben Watson, he's never had so many weapons, especially downfield receivers. There's a good chance that he'll turn in one of the finest seasons of his career and he could give Manning and Palmer a run for their money, but he's going to have to finish #3 to warrant this pick. He's a solid option here, although I'd prefer him a bit better in the 4th round.
3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year. He had one of the most surprising rebound seasons in recent memory last year, including an incredible stretch of 5 straight 300+ yard passing games. He's going to have to repeat his career season in order to justify that ADP, and it's hard to ask someone to have 2 consecutive career seasons. Joe Horn is gone, and while he was injured last year and the Saints were in too much of a groove to notice, don't underestimate the savvy veteran's impact on the team. I know Colston filled in just fine for a while, but it's a lot to ask a 2nd year WR to become the focal point of the passing game and stay among the NFL's best. You're not getting any value here as his ceiling will be the only thing that makes him worth taking this high. Plus with Bush's better knowledge of how to run at the NFL level, the Saints should take advantage of their talented RBs to keep their suspect defense off the field a bit more.
4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year. He had a terrific year last year, finally staying healthy for 16 games, and he thrived in Linehan's offense. He didn't throw an INT until week 6. The Rams added Drew Bennett to the slot, and they also added Randy McMichael as a passing game presence at the TE position. The Rams were pass-happy in the redzone, although given the effectiveness of Steven Jackson down the stretch around the goal line, I don't expect them to throw quite so much around the goal line this year. Still, with a great pass catching RB, added weapons in the passing game, and a solid offensive system, Bulger looks set to repeat last season's numbers. A warning though...don't forget about Holt's troublesome knee. He's the key to this powerful offense, and Bulger would go from solid value to a bit over-valued if Holt continues to struggle with that injury.
4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value. Last year, we saw Carson Palmer start off cold until he became re-adjusted to the pocket. We also saw Daunte Culpepper look absolutely brutal before shutting it down, but his knee injury was a lot more serious than McNabb's. All preseason reports on McNabb have been good as he looks comfortable in the pocket and his throws look strong. He was the #1 fantasy player last year before going down, putting up a huge season like what happened to him back in 2002. I doubt he runs anywhere close to what he usually does, but even as just a passer, he's arguably a top 5 QB. Westbrook is amazing out of the backfield, Reggie Brown has another year of experience, and they replaced the injury-prone Stallworth with an equally fast, smarter, and more durable Kevin Curtis. Expecting a slow start isn't a bad idea, but he'll be just fine when it counts. Make sure to take a backup higher than the other top guys if you select him due to the injury history.
6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year. Kitna looked like a more injury-prone Marc Bulger last season. He makes too many stupid throws and is careless with the ball in the pocket at times, but he threw for a ton of yards and should find the endzone plenty this year. Kevin Jones is probably headed to the PUP list and is replaced by Tatum Bell. Bell is far less reliable out of the backfield, so expect even more passing. The Lions added Calvin Johnson, who is arguably the most physically gifted WR to come out of college. His blend of size and speed is unheard of, and he's a hard-working, smart player to boot. Expect a much smaller learning curve for him as compared to most rookies, and he'll immediately become a huge upgrade opposite the equally-talented Roy Williams. Furrey, a wonderful safety valve, was re-signed and moves to the slot which suits his skills much better. With the upgraded talent and the reliance on the passing game, only health with prevent Kitna from putting up a big year.
6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year. He's coming off a disasterous season, but fantasy owners obviously expect a rebound by drafting him as the 8th QB off the board. The Seattle system is very good for producing solid fantasy numbers. While having Deion Branch in their offense will definitely help improve the chemistry between him and Hasselbeck, he'll be flanked by D.J. Hackett. Branch and Hackett are good system receivers, but they just don't possess the type of talent that Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson had. Alexander is non-existant out of the backfield in the passing game, and Marcus Pollard is an aging, decent option at TE. I think Hasselbeck will be solid, but I don't see any upside here.
7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year. Fantasy owners must not think he was for real last season, or else he'd be going ahead of Hasselbeck. He easily put up top 10 numbers in the 12 weeks that he played, and he's only going to get better. Terrell Owens remains a bit of a risk as a #1 WR, but he should drop less passes this year after fixing the torn tendon in his finger. He's still a monster in the redzone. Glenn is a solid #2, and while he's a big health risk, I believe Patrick Crayton can easily fill his role in the offense if necessary. Witten provides a very good TE in the passing game, and Barber is great out of the backfield. The weapons are there, and Romo should capitalize with a solid season. He also provides a bit of value on the ground as he's a very mobile QB despite not being fast.
7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued. He had an incredible first season that exceeded all expectations, but I don't think he has the talent around him at the WR position that will allow him to take the next step. LT is incredible out of the backfield, and Norv Turner loves throwing to his RBs. Antonio Gates is the best TE in football. Vincent Jackson is an emerging deep threat, but his all-around game needs work and he doesn't have much on-field experience yet. Rookie Craig Davis flanks him, and while his speed is great, his hands remain suspect, and he's replacing the reliable, if unspectacular Eric Parker who's out at least 6 weeks with a broken foot. He's a fairly solid choice, but like with Hasselbeck, I don't see much further upside.
8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued. I question him as a starting fantasy QB this year, but that's exactly what he's being drafted as. His ceiling is higher than that of Michael Vick's thanks to his better work ethic and leadership qualities, but much like Vick, the weapons around him are subpar at best. He'll make up for the lack of passing yards with the rushing numbers, but exactly how much he'll be able to make up is the question. It should at least keep him fairly consistent from week to week. With a WR corp that includes the talented but struggling Brandon Jones, the aging Eric Moulds, and the inexperienced Roydell Williams, things don't look good. Bo Scaife is a solid TE and possibly the most reliable receiver on the team. Young has incredible upside for the future, but his surrounding cast will continue to limit his present upside. The only thing that holds me back from completely avoiding him is his incredible ability to prove all doubters wrong at every level.
8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value. He's being drafted as a fringe starter, and I think that's his downside this season. Arizona's new coaching staff is from the old Pittsburgh regime under Bill Cowher, so while they'll work to build around the running game, there's just too much offensive talent here in the passing game not to use it. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin form the most physically talented WR duo in the NFL, and Bryant Johnson has been an adequate 3rd WR. They don't have much in the way of TEs, but the Steeler's offense under Ken Wisenhunt severely under-used Heath Miller, so it's not much of a loss. Edgerrin James is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield. Leinart should take a step forward this year, and he has a smart offensive mind that's backing him. It remains to be seen how stubborn Wisenhunt will be with the running game this year given the questionable offensive line to see exactly how much Leinart will throw, which directly correlates to fantasy value. Still, there's a lot to like here.
9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value. He's also being drafted as a fringe starter, and I also believe that's his downside this season. Shanahan immediately trusted Cutler more than Plummer last year, and he threw for 2 TDs in his first 4 starts. Javon Walker is one of the game's best deep threats, and Cutler has a cannon for an arm. The only problem is the 2nd WR slot. Brandon Marshall is immensley talented, but he's raw and still learning the NFL game. Rod Smith will start the season on the PUP list, and that will hurt as having a savvy veteran WR as a safety valve is a great thing for a QB. The Broncos signed Daniel Graham, and while he's a blocking specialist, he's still a solid option as a receiver. Tony Scheffler will play plenty in 2 TE sets, and Cutler showed off his chemistry with Scheffler down the stretch last year. Shannahan has a great system and I'd be surprised if Cutler didn't finish in the top 12 QBs at least come year's end, with the possibility of a huge leap still an option.
9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value. His value fell from last year when many expected him to become among the fantasy elite. I believe last year is his The Giants remained among the biggest jokes in football this offseason as it was marred by Tiki's retirement and slams against the team, Burress and Shockey spending too much time training on their own instead of building a chemistry with their QB, and the loss of LT Luke Pettigout who arguably received more criticism than he deserved as he was solid protecting Manning's blindside. Eli returns with a new LT, a new RB in Brandon Jacobs who is underrated in the passing game, and hopefully a new attitude towards being a leader. Burress remains a tremendous deep option, although he's still not a well-rounded WR. Toomer returns from a torn ACL, but at his age it remains to be seen how well he'll recover. A underrated addition was the drafting of WR Steve Smith, who will eventually turn into a very good NFL receiver and a reliable target for Manning. Toomer and Smith will be the keys to what sort of upside Manning has the season, but it figures to continue getting better for Eli.
10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season. Throw last year out the window as it was ruined by his motorcycle accident. Former offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt and former line coach Russ Grimm stated that they believed the Steelers rushed Big Ben back onto the field when he wasn't ready, and I think his performance proves that. Given Roethlisberger was a very efficient QB his first two seasons, his performance last year as an interception-prone QB with a 75.4 QB rating was a complete anomaly. He had posted 2 straight seasons with a QB rating right at 98 prior to that, so it's painfully clear that his head was not in the game last season. Big Ben was a top 5 fantasy QB during the last 12 weeks of the 2006 season, amazingly enough. Mike Tomlin is the new head coach and Bruce Arians takes over as offensive coordinator. Gone are the grind-it-out days of the Cowher regime...Arians loves to spread the field and throw the ball. With the steady Hines Ward, the emerging Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington, and the under-utilized Heath Miller at TE, the Steelers have quality receiving options, and Willie Parker will be thrown to more as well. With a pick this late, there's nothing but upside here.
Gary Sheffield To The DL
The Detroit Tigers will place OF Gary Sheffield on the DL with shoulder soreness.
He's been battling problems on and off with it since injuring it while attempting a diving catch a while ago. He's been miserable since the AS break, hitting .220 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 19 R in 32 games.
Fantasy Impact: Sheffield was a fantasy monster in the 1st half prior to the injury, but he clearly has not been the same since. Given the value he's provided his owners, odds are your team is doing pretty well if you drafted him, so this is a big loss. He's been mostly DH'ing this year, which was helped keep his brittle body healthy for most of it, but unfortunately one of the 14 games in the field has led to his demise. Nobody knows if you'll get anything out of him if he does come back. Mike Cameron still isn't owned in as many leagues as he should be, so you could look to him for help. Jacque Jones has been on fire and might not be owned either, so take a look his way as well. Jonny Gomes and Aubrey Huff are other options, Gomes being underrated and Huff being very hot at the plate as of late. If you play Sheffield at first, you could try Kotchman, who would help you in AVG, R, and RBI.
He's been battling problems on and off with it since injuring it while attempting a diving catch a while ago. He's been miserable since the AS break, hitting .220 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 19 R in 32 games.
Fantasy Impact: Sheffield was a fantasy monster in the 1st half prior to the injury, but he clearly has not been the same since. Given the value he's provided his owners, odds are your team is doing pretty well if you drafted him, so this is a big loss. He's been mostly DH'ing this year, which was helped keep his brittle body healthy for most of it, but unfortunately one of the 14 games in the field has led to his demise. Nobody knows if you'll get anything out of him if he does come back. Mike Cameron still isn't owned in as many leagues as he should be, so you could look to him for help. Jacque Jones has been on fire and might not be owned either, so take a look his way as well. Jonny Gomes and Aubrey Huff are other options, Gomes being underrated and Huff being very hot at the plate as of late. If you play Sheffield at first, you could try Kotchman, who would help you in AVG, R, and RBI.
Goodbye Daily Baseball Updates, Hello Daily Football Updates
Well that's now two weekends in a row where I haven't posted anything, but I was hardly around a computer. I have decided that I will quit doing daily player updates for baseball over the rest of the season. First of all, I don't have the time I'd like to have to write about both sports simultaneously as in depth as I'd like to. I have to pick one to focus on. Given that, like I've mentioned before, everyone's fantasy basebally trading deadlines have kicked in, and the waiver wire doesn't produce much towards the end of the season. I will note September callups that might have value as Felix Hernandez was very valuable 2 years ago when he was called up, for example. I will still post injury news as it relates to baseball as well, but going through noting hot streaks and slumps won't do you much...you have to put your best lineup out there every day at this point and hope for a nice closing stretch from your team. Hopefully I helped get you into a position to win your league. With that being said, I'd rather help people prep for the football season.
Tomorrow I will start posting football depth chart and injury updates as necessary. It's time to get primed for the pigskin season as the baseball season comes into its final month, and I pledge to provide as much NFL FF knowledge and news analysis as I can.
Tomorrow I will start posting football depth chart and injury updates as necessary. It's time to get primed for the pigskin season as the baseball season comes into its final month, and I pledge to provide as much NFL FF knowledge and news analysis as I can.
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