It's not official yet, but Brett Favre will be returning to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. It's hardly a surprise, but it gives some concrete information from which to draft Vikings' players. The Vikings will no doubt welcome him back with open arms as they're a Super Bowl contender with him.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
Buffalo's RB Situation
I wanted to sum up the mess that is Buffalo's backfield currently. Fred Jackson has broken a bone in his hand, and he is out for the rest of the preseason. He is also in danger of missing a regular season game or two. He was heading into the season as the lead back in this mess, but he is now in danger of losing that role. Marshawn Lynch sprained his ankle, but he is expected back as soon as the last preseason game. C.J. Spiller has a huge opportunity to seize the starting job the next couple weeks. I had originally ranked him as overrated because of all the veteran competition, but he is in complete control of his destiny. He's not going to be a goal line back, so his upside is limited, but he's comparable to someone like Jamaal Charles last season. His play-making ability would fit well into a team that does not have a solid offensive line nor a passing game. I would draft Spiller the first of the three now as I think his talent will win out, and he's got the best upside as a RB3. I wouldn't take Jackson as anything more than a RB4. Lynch is mostly an afterthought. I'm curious to see how Spiller does the next couple weeks.
49ers Sign RB Brian Westbrook
The 49ers signed RB Brian Westbook today. This was a bit surprising after hearing the Rams and Redskins were the front runners to sign Westbrook. Ultimately though, the Rams were a rough fit because they play on turf, which would have been hell on Westbrook's knees, and they are in no shape to contend. The Redskins were a better fit because the play on grass and are closer to contention, but they also have like 8 billion 30+ year old RBs on their team. The 49ers offered both a grass surface and are probably the preseason favorites to win the wide open NFL West.
Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.
Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
2010 Preseason Backfield Report
With the preseason underway and injuries already occurring, I want to go through each team's backfield situation and update things along the way. I will be skipping teams with settled backfields like Tennessee, Minnesota, etc. as their situation is obvious.
Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.
New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.
New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.
Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.
Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.
Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.
Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.
Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.
Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.
New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.
Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.
Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.
New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.
Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.
Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.
Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:
1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.
2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.
3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.
There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.
Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.
New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.
New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.
Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.
Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.
Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.
Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.
Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.
Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.
New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.
Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.
Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.
New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.
Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.
Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.
Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:
1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.
2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.
3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.
There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)