The San Francisco 49ers have hired former STL/DET OC Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator.
I'm not sure what the 49ers are doing here, at least on paper. Martz runs a downfield passing attack that requires a heady pocket QB, a RB who can catch passes out of the backfield, and quick WRs running precise routes. While Alex Smith is definitely an intelligent QB (he scored very high on the Wunderlich), he's more mobile than anyone Martz has coached before (Warner, Bulger, Kitna), and it remains to be seen how much he'll move Smith around. Frank Gore will play a big part in the passing game, but Martz often abandons the run. Perhaps the added scoring chances will make up for what is likely to be a downtick in carries, although it can't be much worse than this past year. The 49ers WRs are mostly a mess. Darrell Jackson doesn't look the same as he once did in Seattle, Arnaz Battle is alright, and they don't have much beyond that. Martz has never featured a TE in his offense, but Vernon Davis is easily the most talented pass catcher he has. Martz's scheme seems completely backwards from the personel that SF has, but he'll undoubtedly improve the offense's production.
Cam Cameron seemed like a far better choice, unless he wasn't interested, but I find that hard to believe. Cameron designed and engineered the prolific SD offense that featured a great all-around RB in LT and great TE in Gates before taking Miami's head coaching position last year. His scheme would seemingly fit perfectly into the personel that SF has with Gore and Davis.
Fantasy Impact: This is good news for Alex Smith. He's smart enough to run Martz's offense, and SF will upgrade their WR group in the offseason. Smith should easily post career highs all across the board next year. Frank Gore's value stays about the same. Think Kevin Jones of 2006, who posted RB1 numbers before busting his foot. Gore possesses great passing game skills, which will suit the new offense, and he'll likely receive more scoring chances. Darrell Jackson, if he's healthy, could be a sleeper, but that "if" I just mentioned is a big question mark. Opening up the offense will only mean good things for Vernon Davis, although like I mentioned above, Martz has never featured a TE before. He'll have to now. All in all, this is good news for all SF skill positions as Martz has featured a very good offense every year except in 2007.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Monday, January 7, 2008
Fantasy Football Lessons Learned
QB:
I've already posted my QB analysis, so that's covered.
RB:
1) Avoid overworked RBs from the previous year. Larry Johnson, as I warned readers prior to the regular season, was a huge risk of sustaining an injury this season. Now it's hard to take full credit for this as his injury was a bit flukish in nature as his leg was caught underneath him, but the history still holds true that RBs who receive 375 f/carries (carries + 1/2 receptions) are at high risk of breaking down the following season. Not only that, but the worries about his surrounding offensive situation and his holdout proved very valid and he started off horribly slow, then only managed a couple good games against bottom-of-the-barrel run Ds. Steven Jackson also falls into this catagory as he also surpassed the 375 f/carry mark last year. His torn hamstring costed his owners a lot of productoin during his absence. The third, LT, is pretty much the exception to all rules. Luckily no RB hit that magic number this year, although Willie Parker was well on his way until breaking his leg. Clinton Portis came the closest at 348.
2) Avoid the 30ish RBs early on. Those expecting resurgent seasons from Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were sorely disappointed, especially Alexander as he costed a much higher price tag. Not only did he get hurt for the 2nd straight year, but he absolutely fell off the map during the 2nd half of the season. Edgerrin James continued his durability, but his production also took a nose-dive in the 2nd half of the season. Alexander seems likely to get a chance as the featured back again next year, but I wouldn't bother wasting my time with him. There's no upside left. James is likely headed for a committee as he winds down his career. Jamal Lewis and Fred Taylor are both up there in age, but they were drafted as RB3s, and they represent a much safer draft choice in that range.
3) Strongly consider offensive situation. Frank Gore was the perfect example of this. His skills didn't go anywhere, and he's still young, but the offense fell apart and he was directly a victim of the 49ers inability to pass the football. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor were an exception this year thanks to their incredible offensive line, but expect defenses to adjust. If the Vikings don't add a reliable veteran WR somewhere along the line, Peterson could suffer from a production drop like Gore experienced this season. Top rushers like LT, Westbrook, Parker, and Jamal Lewis (what the hell?) were on offenses that were balanced enough to keep defenses honest. Rivers and McNabb struggled a bit this year, but the defense still had to respect the passing game, and the runners benefitted.
4) Beware first time feature RBs. Talented RBs like Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, and LenDale White all failed to play 16 games. None of them had been a feature NFL RB before, and it seems to have become a pattern that first timers either wear down like Addai and Lynch, or miss multiple games like Jacobs and White. All of these guys made solid draft choices, but as the season wears on, make sure to acquire an insurance policy in case you lose one when it matters most. Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and any rookie RB will likely fall into this catagory next season.
WR:
1) Identify potential breakout stars. These are guys in their 2nd or 3rd seasons that take the next step. Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Roddy White all qualify for this catagory this year. All were huge draft day steals who paid dividends to their owners. Braylon Edwards was a bit of a surprise, but he produced no matter what the previous year down the stretch despite the QB carosel. Brandon Marshall flashed impressive skills his rookie season, and Walker's injury allowed him to shine. Santonio Holmes battled some nagging injuries, but he turned into one of the NFL's best deep threats and will continue getting better. Anderson's stabilization of the CLE QB situation took Edwards into the fantasy elite. Roddy White was the biggest surprise, and he really blossomed down the stretch once Chris Redman took over and started looking downfield more often. If Atlanta adds a reliable veteran QB, he'll be one to target next year. Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, and Ronald Curry are all guys to keep in mind for next season.
2) Consider QB changes. Andre Johnson is the biggest beneficiary of this as Kubiak's system finally added a QB in Schaub that matched his offense, and AJ boomed into the fantasy elite while healthy. WRs can have tremendous talent, but if they don't have the proper system around them, they won't realize it. AJ should be a stud for years to come.
3) Marques Colston is for real. He suffered from a slight sophmore slump, but he really turned it on in the 2nd half, and he's here to stay. The Saints still need to find a more reliable secondary target to complement him, but he's a borderline WR1, and will be for a while.
4) Anquan Boldin gets hurt too much. I love this dude's skills, and I think he's very similar to T.O. The problem is that he's been banged up quite a bit. I think he's entering a catagory of player where you just can't expect 16 games from him, and you have to analyze his draft day value accordingly.
TE:
1) Don't reach. Gates is great, but he's not worth taking so far ahead of the others. Let's see if his ADP adjusts next year. I made a huge mistake by drafting Vernon Davis too early in several drafts, thinking that he would break out and become the next great TE. The skills are there, but guys like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten were available much later. Analyze the passing offense for the pass catchers and wait around for one. Winslow was a much better risk as he not only came much later, but he also had huge upside with health concerns. If you screw up and take a bust TE with the 9th or 10th pick, it's not a huge deal. If your 5th or 6th round TE busts, it's a much bigger deal.
K:
1) As I say every year, there's absolutely no reason to be picking a kicker above the last round. Find an offense that you think will score a lot, preferably one that plays in a dome or in warm weather come December so you don't have to worry about him the last month, and grab him in the last round.
D/ST:
1) How did that Baltimore pick treat you this year? Again, don't draft a defense before the last several rounds. Very few defenses are worth playing every week anyways.
All Positions:
1) A solid indicator of breakout stars lies in looking at 2nd half boomers. These are guys who picked up their play in the 2nd half of the previous year. They don't necessarily have to light the fantasy football world on fire, but guys who showed progress as the season went along. Tony Romo, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Chris Cooley, and Jason Witten all qualify for this year. Guys to keep an eye on for next year are Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Laurence Maroney (the Pats will run him more next year), Ryan Grant, Roddy White, and Tony Scheffler.
I hope you guys all enjoyed another season of fantasy football in 2007. I certainly did, and I aim to bring you more detailed preseason assessments, more accurate observations, and a full season's worth of player updates later on this year. I don't anticipate running into another work-related episode like I did this past season as I'm looking for a job that won't do that to me again. :)
I'll be posting soon with some preliminary fantasy baseball thoughts. Cheers!
I've already posted my QB analysis, so that's covered.
RB:
1) Avoid overworked RBs from the previous year. Larry Johnson, as I warned readers prior to the regular season, was a huge risk of sustaining an injury this season. Now it's hard to take full credit for this as his injury was a bit flukish in nature as his leg was caught underneath him, but the history still holds true that RBs who receive 375 f/carries (carries + 1/2 receptions) are at high risk of breaking down the following season. Not only that, but the worries about his surrounding offensive situation and his holdout proved very valid and he started off horribly slow, then only managed a couple good games against bottom-of-the-barrel run Ds. Steven Jackson also falls into this catagory as he also surpassed the 375 f/carry mark last year. His torn hamstring costed his owners a lot of productoin during his absence. The third, LT, is pretty much the exception to all rules. Luckily no RB hit that magic number this year, although Willie Parker was well on his way until breaking his leg. Clinton Portis came the closest at 348.
2) Avoid the 30ish RBs early on. Those expecting resurgent seasons from Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were sorely disappointed, especially Alexander as he costed a much higher price tag. Not only did he get hurt for the 2nd straight year, but he absolutely fell off the map during the 2nd half of the season. Edgerrin James continued his durability, but his production also took a nose-dive in the 2nd half of the season. Alexander seems likely to get a chance as the featured back again next year, but I wouldn't bother wasting my time with him. There's no upside left. James is likely headed for a committee as he winds down his career. Jamal Lewis and Fred Taylor are both up there in age, but they were drafted as RB3s, and they represent a much safer draft choice in that range.
3) Strongly consider offensive situation. Frank Gore was the perfect example of this. His skills didn't go anywhere, and he's still young, but the offense fell apart and he was directly a victim of the 49ers inability to pass the football. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor were an exception this year thanks to their incredible offensive line, but expect defenses to adjust. If the Vikings don't add a reliable veteran WR somewhere along the line, Peterson could suffer from a production drop like Gore experienced this season. Top rushers like LT, Westbrook, Parker, and Jamal Lewis (what the hell?) were on offenses that were balanced enough to keep defenses honest. Rivers and McNabb struggled a bit this year, but the defense still had to respect the passing game, and the runners benefitted.
4) Beware first time feature RBs. Talented RBs like Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, and LenDale White all failed to play 16 games. None of them had been a feature NFL RB before, and it seems to have become a pattern that first timers either wear down like Addai and Lynch, or miss multiple games like Jacobs and White. All of these guys made solid draft choices, but as the season wears on, make sure to acquire an insurance policy in case you lose one when it matters most. Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and any rookie RB will likely fall into this catagory next season.
WR:
1) Identify potential breakout stars. These are guys in their 2nd or 3rd seasons that take the next step. Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Roddy White all qualify for this catagory this year. All were huge draft day steals who paid dividends to their owners. Braylon Edwards was a bit of a surprise, but he produced no matter what the previous year down the stretch despite the QB carosel. Brandon Marshall flashed impressive skills his rookie season, and Walker's injury allowed him to shine. Santonio Holmes battled some nagging injuries, but he turned into one of the NFL's best deep threats and will continue getting better. Anderson's stabilization of the CLE QB situation took Edwards into the fantasy elite. Roddy White was the biggest surprise, and he really blossomed down the stretch once Chris Redman took over and started looking downfield more often. If Atlanta adds a reliable veteran QB, he'll be one to target next year. Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, and Ronald Curry are all guys to keep in mind for next season.
2) Consider QB changes. Andre Johnson is the biggest beneficiary of this as Kubiak's system finally added a QB in Schaub that matched his offense, and AJ boomed into the fantasy elite while healthy. WRs can have tremendous talent, but if they don't have the proper system around them, they won't realize it. AJ should be a stud for years to come.
3) Marques Colston is for real. He suffered from a slight sophmore slump, but he really turned it on in the 2nd half, and he's here to stay. The Saints still need to find a more reliable secondary target to complement him, but he's a borderline WR1, and will be for a while.
4) Anquan Boldin gets hurt too much. I love this dude's skills, and I think he's very similar to T.O. The problem is that he's been banged up quite a bit. I think he's entering a catagory of player where you just can't expect 16 games from him, and you have to analyze his draft day value accordingly.
TE:
1) Don't reach. Gates is great, but he's not worth taking so far ahead of the others. Let's see if his ADP adjusts next year. I made a huge mistake by drafting Vernon Davis too early in several drafts, thinking that he would break out and become the next great TE. The skills are there, but guys like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten were available much later. Analyze the passing offense for the pass catchers and wait around for one. Winslow was a much better risk as he not only came much later, but he also had huge upside with health concerns. If you screw up and take a bust TE with the 9th or 10th pick, it's not a huge deal. If your 5th or 6th round TE busts, it's a much bigger deal.
K:
1) As I say every year, there's absolutely no reason to be picking a kicker above the last round. Find an offense that you think will score a lot, preferably one that plays in a dome or in warm weather come December so you don't have to worry about him the last month, and grab him in the last round.
D/ST:
1) How did that Baltimore pick treat you this year? Again, don't draft a defense before the last several rounds. Very few defenses are worth playing every week anyways.
All Positions:
1) A solid indicator of breakout stars lies in looking at 2nd half boomers. These are guys who picked up their play in the 2nd half of the previous year. They don't necessarily have to light the fantasy football world on fire, but guys who showed progress as the season went along. Tony Romo, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Chris Cooley, and Jason Witten all qualify for this year. Guys to keep an eye on for next year are Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Laurence Maroney (the Pats will run him more next year), Ryan Grant, Roddy White, and Tony Scheffler.
I hope you guys all enjoyed another season of fantasy football in 2007. I certainly did, and I aim to bring you more detailed preseason assessments, more accurate observations, and a full season's worth of player updates later on this year. I don't anticipate running into another work-related episode like I did this past season as I'm looking for a job that won't do that to me again. :)
I'll be posting soon with some preliminary fantasy baseball thoughts. Cheers!
Post-Season QB Value Analysis
My ranking are based on standard scoring of 1 pt/25 yards passing, 1 pt/10 yards rushing, 6 pts/TD, and -2 pts/turnover.
What I Said: 1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #3 QB this season. Given he went about a round and a half before the next QB on average, it was a steep price to pay for his yearly consistency, especially at the expense of a RB1 or top WR. I'd give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning.
What Happened: Palmer finished as the #9 QB this season. Rudi Johnson's heavy workload of the past several years caught up to him, and he was hampered by a hamstring injury all year. Rudi, the past several years, balanced out the offense and provided a reliable power running game to complement Palmer's downfield attack. Palmer continues to utilize CJ and TJ to their strengths, but shoddy protection this year led to way too many mistakes (20 INT). I'd give myself a poor grade here as Palmer was NOT worth a 3rd round pick.
What I Said: 3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year.
What Happened: Tom Brady finished as the #1 QB this season. He was the top fantasy football player this year. I did note that he had the best talent of his career surrounding him, which should have been obvious to everyone. Randy Moss found his motivation, Stallworth did well after-the-catch, and Welker owned the middle of the field. Brady wasn't just a decent value, he was arguably a steal. I'd give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Brees finished as the #5 QB this season. Brees got off to a dreadful start, and given he was likely a 3rd round pick, he probably hurt your team pretty bad in the first month. He rebounded and looked like the Brees of old down the stretch, but he was a much better buy-low candidate thanks to the slow start than he was a 3rd round pick. I'd give myself a solid grade here, although he definitely proved his worth in the 2nd half of the season.
What I Said: 4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year.
What Happened: Bulger finished as a disaster. The Rams offensive line was absolutely ravaged by injuries, and thanks to the poor protection, Bulger got hit early and often, and this led to numerous injuries and a lot of missed games. Bulger had not completed a 16 game season prior to his stellar 2006 season, and I should have factored that in, although nobody could have predicted the amount of injuries to the Rams offensive line. I'll give myself a poor grade here, but injuries aren't always predictable.
What I Said: 4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value.
What Happened: McNabb finished as the #12 QB this season. He started off slow, as I mentioned, turned in a monster game against Detroit, which at the time looked like the start of his rebound, and then he regressed back to a very medicore QB1. He did finish the season strong, but it was too late for those who selected him in the 5th round. Westbrook rightfully became the focal point of the offense. I learned that these knee injuries are tricky, and given McNabb relies on his mobility to be an effective passer, it affected him more than Palmer. Once he got used to becoming more of a pocket passer, he settled in and looked very good. The injury forced him to change his style, and that took too long of an adjustment period. I'd give myself a poor grade here for not having the foresight to see that happening.
What I Said: 6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year.
What Happened: Kitna finished as the #14 QB this season. Everything seemed to be in place for him to repeat his 2006 success, but after a very strong start, things fell apart in a hurry. Calvin Johnson was overrated heading into the season, and he looked like most rookie WRs: lost. He dropped passes, ran wrong routes, and was hardly a reliable WR2 to keep attention off of Roy Williams. Shaun McDonald emerged as a decent WR2, but Mike Furrey disappeared. Once defense adjusted and only worried about Williams, Kitna looked lost. Martz refused to stay committed to the running game, and called for too many downfield routes, leaving Kitna in the pocket to get hammered all season long. It's amazing he lasted 16 games. I'd give myself a poor grade here, but Martz deserves part of the blame. :)
What I Said: 6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Hasselbeck finished as the #7 QB this season. Given he was taken 8th overall on average, he lived up to his draft position, and better yet, he closed the season very strong. Once Alexander predictably showed his age, Holmgren adjusted his offense to become very pass-happy, and Hasselbeck's fantasy owners were a huge beneficiary of that. Given I told everyone to stay away from Alexander this season, I should have realized that Hasselbeck would benefit from Alexander not scoring all the time. I'll apply that next year. I'll give myself a poor grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year.
What Happened: Romo finished as the #2 QB this season. I was money on this prediction. Romo was a stud the entire year, although he looked lost when Owens got hurt in week 15. Unfortunately that was the worst possible time for that to happen, but Romo most likely advanced his fantasy teams into the playoffs and should be a perenial top 5 option as long as Owens remains dominant. The Cowboys just don't have the WR depth behind Owens. I'll give myself a good grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Rivers finished as the #16 QB this season. Rivers was over-valued, and I was right on here. He did not take that next step this season, and he actually regressed. The Chargers did acquire Chris Chambers, but he still remained inconsistent afterwards, which was a problem for him all season. He ran his mouth too much and didn't back up any of it. I'm not sure what to think of him as a QB moving forward, although Norv Turner has a solid track record of developing young QBs. Perhaps it was an offensive scheme change that caused this. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Young finished as the #18 QB this season. Like Rivers, he also regressed as teams focused on stopping his rushing ability and giving him lanes to pass through. He didn't take advantage, although the disgusting lack of talent at WR and TE on the Titans doesn't do him any favors whatsoever. He can't do everything on his own. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value.
What Happened: A complete mess followed by season-ending collarbone break. I was way off on this one. News leaked out that Leinart was putting far more attention into partying and being "Hollywood" than he did studying the playbook, and the results sure proved that. He turned in 2 poor performances, he started splitting time with a far more effective Kurt Warner, and then he broke his collarbone. Warner showed what that offense can do with a solid QB, which is move the ball effectively. Leinart better get himself into the film room and out of the way of the cameras. I'll give myself a poor grade here as the injury was hardly the source of the problem.
What I Said: 9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value.
What Happened: Cutler finished as the #11 QB this season. He was drafted as a fringe starter, and while I stated that was his downside, that's how he ended up. Once Javon Walker proved unable to play through his ailing knee, Cutler found a new favorite target in Brandon Marshall. Once Tony Scheffler recovered from his broken foot, he finally added a secondary option. He again showed promise, but remained a much better matchup QB than a weekly option. I'll give myself a solid grade here as the lack of receiving targets stunted his development, and I did mention what his downside was.
What I Said: 9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #13 QB. Manning wasn't a "good" value as much as he was a "solid" value. He looked very good to start the season, but once Burress' injured ankle started slowing him down, Manning lost his deep threat. Steve Smith suffered his own injury, and then Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries before breaking his leg. The injuries to all his weapons certainly stunted his fantasy potential, and it shows how important the health of the weapons are to a QB's fantasy potential. I'll give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season.
What Happened: Roethlisberger finished as the #4 QB this season. This was my money pick, and I targeted him in every draft, acquiring him in all but 1. Big Ben proved that last season was a fluke and become just short of a fantasy stud. Holmes has emerged as one of the game's better deep threats, Ward is a steady possession receiver, and Heath Miller did well over the middle, but is still under-utilized. If you waited to nab your starting QB until the 10th round, you likely built up quite a roster before worrying about your QB. With the uncertainty ahead of him, Big Ben (and waiver picks like Warner and Anderson) prove that you do NOT need to waste a high pick on a starting QB when you can further your depth at other positions instead. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
Summary:
Solid Grades: 7
OK Grades: 2
Poor Grades: 6
9/15 isn't too bad. I of course learned even more this year about where to find the values, and what all to take into consideration when determining what a QB's value is. I still firmly believe that this value-based approach is far better than simply putting a top 15 list together for your draft day preparation.
What I Said: 1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #3 QB this season. Given he went about a round and a half before the next QB on average, it was a steep price to pay for his yearly consistency, especially at the expense of a RB1 or top WR. I'd give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning.
What Happened: Palmer finished as the #9 QB this season. Rudi Johnson's heavy workload of the past several years caught up to him, and he was hampered by a hamstring injury all year. Rudi, the past several years, balanced out the offense and provided a reliable power running game to complement Palmer's downfield attack. Palmer continues to utilize CJ and TJ to their strengths, but shoddy protection this year led to way too many mistakes (20 INT). I'd give myself a poor grade here as Palmer was NOT worth a 3rd round pick.
What I Said: 3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year.
What Happened: Tom Brady finished as the #1 QB this season. He was the top fantasy football player this year. I did note that he had the best talent of his career surrounding him, which should have been obvious to everyone. Randy Moss found his motivation, Stallworth did well after-the-catch, and Welker owned the middle of the field. Brady wasn't just a decent value, he was arguably a steal. I'd give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Brees finished as the #5 QB this season. Brees got off to a dreadful start, and given he was likely a 3rd round pick, he probably hurt your team pretty bad in the first month. He rebounded and looked like the Brees of old down the stretch, but he was a much better buy-low candidate thanks to the slow start than he was a 3rd round pick. I'd give myself a solid grade here, although he definitely proved his worth in the 2nd half of the season.
What I Said: 4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year.
What Happened: Bulger finished as a disaster. The Rams offensive line was absolutely ravaged by injuries, and thanks to the poor protection, Bulger got hit early and often, and this led to numerous injuries and a lot of missed games. Bulger had not completed a 16 game season prior to his stellar 2006 season, and I should have factored that in, although nobody could have predicted the amount of injuries to the Rams offensive line. I'll give myself a poor grade here, but injuries aren't always predictable.
What I Said: 4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value.
What Happened: McNabb finished as the #12 QB this season. He started off slow, as I mentioned, turned in a monster game against Detroit, which at the time looked like the start of his rebound, and then he regressed back to a very medicore QB1. He did finish the season strong, but it was too late for those who selected him in the 5th round. Westbrook rightfully became the focal point of the offense. I learned that these knee injuries are tricky, and given McNabb relies on his mobility to be an effective passer, it affected him more than Palmer. Once he got used to becoming more of a pocket passer, he settled in and looked very good. The injury forced him to change his style, and that took too long of an adjustment period. I'd give myself a poor grade here for not having the foresight to see that happening.
What I Said: 6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year.
What Happened: Kitna finished as the #14 QB this season. Everything seemed to be in place for him to repeat his 2006 success, but after a very strong start, things fell apart in a hurry. Calvin Johnson was overrated heading into the season, and he looked like most rookie WRs: lost. He dropped passes, ran wrong routes, and was hardly a reliable WR2 to keep attention off of Roy Williams. Shaun McDonald emerged as a decent WR2, but Mike Furrey disappeared. Once defense adjusted and only worried about Williams, Kitna looked lost. Martz refused to stay committed to the running game, and called for too many downfield routes, leaving Kitna in the pocket to get hammered all season long. It's amazing he lasted 16 games. I'd give myself a poor grade here, but Martz deserves part of the blame. :)
What I Said: 6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Hasselbeck finished as the #7 QB this season. Given he was taken 8th overall on average, he lived up to his draft position, and better yet, he closed the season very strong. Once Alexander predictably showed his age, Holmgren adjusted his offense to become very pass-happy, and Hasselbeck's fantasy owners were a huge beneficiary of that. Given I told everyone to stay away from Alexander this season, I should have realized that Hasselbeck would benefit from Alexander not scoring all the time. I'll apply that next year. I'll give myself a poor grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year.
What Happened: Romo finished as the #2 QB this season. I was money on this prediction. Romo was a stud the entire year, although he looked lost when Owens got hurt in week 15. Unfortunately that was the worst possible time for that to happen, but Romo most likely advanced his fantasy teams into the playoffs and should be a perenial top 5 option as long as Owens remains dominant. The Cowboys just don't have the WR depth behind Owens. I'll give myself a good grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Rivers finished as the #16 QB this season. Rivers was over-valued, and I was right on here. He did not take that next step this season, and he actually regressed. The Chargers did acquire Chris Chambers, but he still remained inconsistent afterwards, which was a problem for him all season. He ran his mouth too much and didn't back up any of it. I'm not sure what to think of him as a QB moving forward, although Norv Turner has a solid track record of developing young QBs. Perhaps it was an offensive scheme change that caused this. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Young finished as the #18 QB this season. Like Rivers, he also regressed as teams focused on stopping his rushing ability and giving him lanes to pass through. He didn't take advantage, although the disgusting lack of talent at WR and TE on the Titans doesn't do him any favors whatsoever. He can't do everything on his own. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value.
What Happened: A complete mess followed by season-ending collarbone break. I was way off on this one. News leaked out that Leinart was putting far more attention into partying and being "Hollywood" than he did studying the playbook, and the results sure proved that. He turned in 2 poor performances, he started splitting time with a far more effective Kurt Warner, and then he broke his collarbone. Warner showed what that offense can do with a solid QB, which is move the ball effectively. Leinart better get himself into the film room and out of the way of the cameras. I'll give myself a poor grade here as the injury was hardly the source of the problem.
What I Said: 9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value.
What Happened: Cutler finished as the #11 QB this season. He was drafted as a fringe starter, and while I stated that was his downside, that's how he ended up. Once Javon Walker proved unable to play through his ailing knee, Cutler found a new favorite target in Brandon Marshall. Once Tony Scheffler recovered from his broken foot, he finally added a secondary option. He again showed promise, but remained a much better matchup QB than a weekly option. I'll give myself a solid grade here as the lack of receiving targets stunted his development, and I did mention what his downside was.
What I Said: 9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #13 QB. Manning wasn't a "good" value as much as he was a "solid" value. He looked very good to start the season, but once Burress' injured ankle started slowing him down, Manning lost his deep threat. Steve Smith suffered his own injury, and then Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries before breaking his leg. The injuries to all his weapons certainly stunted his fantasy potential, and it shows how important the health of the weapons are to a QB's fantasy potential. I'll give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season.
What Happened: Roethlisberger finished as the #4 QB this season. This was my money pick, and I targeted him in every draft, acquiring him in all but 1. Big Ben proved that last season was a fluke and become just short of a fantasy stud. Holmes has emerged as one of the game's better deep threats, Ward is a steady possession receiver, and Heath Miller did well over the middle, but is still under-utilized. If you waited to nab your starting QB until the 10th round, you likely built up quite a roster before worrying about your QB. With the uncertainty ahead of him, Big Ben (and waiver picks like Warner and Anderson) prove that you do NOT need to waste a high pick on a starting QB when you can further your depth at other positions instead. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
Summary:
Solid Grades: 7
OK Grades: 2
Poor Grades: 6
9/15 isn't too bad. I of course learned even more this year about where to find the values, and what all to take into consideration when determining what a QB's value is. I still firmly believe that this value-based approach is far better than simply putting a top 15 list together for your draft day preparation.
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