Thursday, October 22, 2009

Week 7 Injury/Depth Chart Report

Arizona Cardinals - Anquan Boldin has missed some practices, and he's questionable to play this weekend.  It has already been reported that he'll probably be a game time decision, so make sure to check on game day as to whether or not he's active.

Atlanta Falcons - Jerious Norwood is likely out for a while, so Jason Snelling will take his role on passing downs.  Turner even caught a couple passes last week, so perhaps he'll see a couple more looks as well.

Baltimore Ravens - Bye week.

Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards is out at least one week, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will replace him as the starter.  As we saw with Cincy last year, it's not a good thing for the fantasy value of the wideouts.  Evans had a great game last week, but keep in mind he was facing a hobbled Lito Sheppard.  Fred Jackson was moved onto returns, so this is an indication that Marshawn Lynch is back as the lead RB.

Carolina Panthers - Steve Smith bitched about not getting the ball, which was poor timing on his part since his team had just picked up a win.  Regardless, expect him to respond with a good game this week.

Cincinnati Bengals - Benson gets a revenge game against the Bears, so this should be interesting.  Perhaps the Bears D will focus on him and allow Palmer to have his overdue breakout game.

Chicago Bears - None.

Cleveland Browns - Derek Anderson will continue to start for reasons unknown to any logical football fan.

Dallas Cowboys - Miles Austin has officially won the starting job opposite Roy Williams, so this is good news for Tony Romo and the entire offense.  Marion Barber claims he's alright, but his performance so far has indicated otherwise.  Expect Barber and Choice to continue sharing snaps moving forward.  Felix Jones is supposed to return, but don't expect him to play a major role.

Denver Broncos - Bye week.

Detroit Lions - Bye week.

Green Bay Packers - The offensive line continues to be a problem, and thanks to Clifton's re-injury and Tauscher's lack of readiness, no immediate help is on the way.  Luckily they play Cleveland this week.

Houston Texans - It's worth repeating that Owen Daniels has passed Kevin Walter as the secondary option of this passing game.  Walter is not a WR3, although he will have some good weeks mixed in.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzalez, in a disappointing bit of news, is still not ready to return.  Given how the Colts have handled news regarding knee injuries in the past, this isn't surprising in hindsight.  Continue to stash Gonzalez, however.  Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie will continue to play plenty, and both are WR3 options for bye weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Bye week.

Kansas City Chiefs - None.

Miami Dolphins - None.

Minnesota Vikings - Adrian Peterson nicked his ankle last week, but it is not a concern.  Sidney Rice has emerged as a fantasy force.

New England Patriots - With Sammy Morris likely out this week, Laurence Maroney returns as the featured runner, and he's a RB2 option this week in a great match up.  Understand that there's some downside to using him given the nature of this team, especially if he struggles early on, but the upside for this game is great.

New Orleans Saints - Pierre Thomas is still the featured RB early on, but Mike Bell is the goal line RB, and he's also considered the closer when the Saints are winding out the clock.  Thomas is a risky RB2 play, but he can be used as a bye week replacement.

New York Giants - Mario Manningham continues to hold off Hakeem Nicks for now, with Manningham remaining the starter, but both are splitting snaps.  Nicks has looked excellent when on the field.  Both are very risky WR3s thanks to the fact they don't play all game.

New York Jets - Jerricho Cotchery is still struggling with his hamstring injury, and while there's a chance he plays this week, I would not advise using him until he shows that he's close to 100%.  Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are a good RB2s this week against the Raiders run defense, especially since I think you'll see New York pass less with Sanchez's recent struggles.

Oakland Raiders - Justin Fargas seems to have passed Michael Bush as the starter, but using either against the Jets is a poor idea.

Philadelphia Eagles - Kevin Curtis is out indefinitely, so Jeremy Maclin will start the rest of the season.  He's a WR3.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Mendenhall was announced as the starter, and Parker is still battling the effects of his turf toe.  Mendenhall is a borderline RB1 moving forward.

San Diego Chargers - None.

San Francisco 49ers - Gore has returned to a full practice and will resume his RB1 status.  Michael Crabtree will play plenty, but there are conflicting reports on whether or not he's starting, and there's a chance he'll split snaps with Josh Morgan.  The 49ers would be best served by starting both Crabtree and Morgan, but they don't appear to be interested in doing that.

Seattle Seahawks - Bye week.

St. Louis Rams - Donnie Avery is battling a hip injury that knocked him out of week 6, and he's questionable this week.  I wouldn't use him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is the featured Bucs runner, leaving high priced free agent acquisition Derrick Ward to clean up the scraps.  Earnest Graham was officially moved back to fullback with the season-ending injury to B.J. Askew, so he can safely be dropped in all leagues.

Tennessee Titans - Bye week.

Washington Redskins - Campbell will start again this week, but he's clearly on a short leash.  He is in no way a fantasy option.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Week 7 Waiver Wire

QB:

Vince Young - You can officially stash Vince Young.  The Titans go on bye in week 7, but there's little question that Kerry Collins is just about done as the starter.  The Titans have nothing to lose anymore, and they need to see what they have in Young to determine if they'll need to take a QB next year.  Young still has physical talent, and he's worth stashing to see how he does.  He'll have solid weapons around him.

RB:

Laurence Maroney - You probably shouldn't have dropped him off the end of your roster unless you really needed the spot, but now is the time for Maroney.  With Fred Taylor out indefinitely and Sammy Morris now out as well, Maroney is the lone dog for early down carries with Faulk replacing him on passing downs.  He tore up what was previously a stingy Titans run defense, so he has some upside moving forward.  If you need RB help, use your waiver spot on him.

Justin Fargas - I hesitantly write this, but he's seemingly passed Michael Bush as the starter.  He'll get a good number of carries, though, so he's worth owning.  He'd only be usable in the right match up for desperate owners.

WR:

Michael Crabtree - Not only has he signed, but he's already passed Josh Morgan on the depth chart, and he'll start in week 7.  Add him immediately...he's worth the #1 waiver priority on a team that badly needs someone to step up at WR.

Hakeem Nicks - Nicks is officially breaking out, although he did his serious damage in garbage time, connecting with David Carr on a 37 yard TD.  He can't be relied upon immediately as Manningham is still starting and sharing snaps with him, but Nicks could pass him soon enough as Manningham keeps getting banged up.  Stash him.

Lance Moore - Moore finally showed signs of life, posting his best game of the season in week 6.  He's worth adding to see if he can replicate his great stretch run last season.

TE:

Zach Miller - He's back!  Miller has posted back to back solid games, and has re-emerged as a viable TE1 possiblity despite Jamarcus Russell.  We're all aware of the downside, but he's playing well again and is worth using again.

Monday, October 19, 2009

The Sad Truth

I decided I wanted to write a small article called The Sad Truth this week.  One of the toughest things to do in fantasy football is swallow your pride and adjust the value of some of your players...downward.  Now that we are 6 weeks into the season, simple 1-2 week worries have emerged as true downward trends, and we must act accordingly in both our lineups and in our trade demands.  As I do with everything, I'm going to break it down by position and highlight the players that we drafted high, but are simply not the player that we thought we drafted.

QB:


Tony Romo - Romo had great weeks against poor defenses in weeks 1 and 5, but was horrible in the other three weeks.  The reason behind this is his weapons...the best talent on this team is at the RB position.  Jason Witten still remains an excellent TE, but losing Owens has really hurt this team.  Roy Williams hasn't looked any better this season, and nobody else stepped up until week 5.  Miles Austin provides some hope for Romo moving ahead, but as it stands right now, Romo is best used as a match up QB1 until he proves that he can post a good game against a good defense.

Kurt Warner - Thanks to a slow recovery to his offseason hip surgery, Warner is currently ranked as the 14th best QB in terms of FPPG (fantasy points per game).  He is simply not healthy enough to have the same velocity and distance on his throws, and his lack of big plays are a direct result of that.  As such, his fantasy value has plummeted.  His owners can hope that his hip feels better come stretch time, but odds are what you're seeing is what you'll get from him.

Matt Cassel - There's no secret as to why Cassel has not played well...his surrounding offensive situation is as bad as it gets in the NFL.  I do forsee some improvement in the 2nd half, and his 7:2 TD:INT is promising, but he will continue to be limited by his situation.  He can be a match up QB1, but nothing more.

Carson Palmer - Much to my dismay, Carson Palmer has not lived up to expectations.  Despite being taken on the fringe of a QB1, He's the 20th best QB in FPPG.  His offensive line was considered a weakness heading into the season, but he's only been sacked 11 times in 6 games.  I actually think part of the problem is the running game...Cedric Benson has been so good that they haven't felt the need to throw, and I bet very few people saw that coming.  Chad Ochocinco has bounced back and looks great, but Chris Henry has battled nagging injuries, and Coles has looked horrible.  Andre Caldwell has been solid, but he's not a game breaker.  The thing that gives me hope is that Palmer missed so much of last year and most of the preseason, so some rust should have been expected.

RB:

Michael Turner - Turner has not shown the same burst as last season, and he's only had 1 game with a YPC above 4.0.  Thanks to the surrounding offense, Turner has scored enough TDs to maintain solid fantasy value, but his YPC has crashed and I don't see this magically turning itself around.  If someone is willing to give top 5 value for him, do it.

Matt Forte - Forte also hasn't shown the same burst as last season, but his offensive line has been a major problem as well.  I imagine Forte is among the league leaders in being hit behind the line of scrimmage, and he's not a special enough RB to overcome that situation.  Few are.  His workload keeps his value reasonable, but he's seeing less receptions, and most importantly, he's struggling at the goal line.  He's going to be solid over the rest of the season, but he's not returning to elite.

Steven Jackson - Jackson has actually been pretty amazing given what's he's accomplished so far with his putrid surrounding offensive situation, but he hasn't scored yet, and that is murdering his fantasy value.  Much like Forte, his workload (and pure determination) keeps him valuable, but he's more of a RB2 until STL can get him on the goal line more often.

DeAngelo Williams - His value shot up in the last week or two before drafts thanks to Jonathan Stewart's lingering achillies problem, but after barely doing anything all offseason, Stewart went right back to his same role as last season.  Williams still looks good more often than not, but thanks to the struggles of the passing game and the presence of a healthy Stewart, his value is limited to a match up RB2...a far cry from his RB1 draft day value.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Disappointing RB #5 from this year's first round.  LT started off with a solid first performance, got hurt mid-game, and has barely done anything since.  He's 30, injury prone, lost several steps, and is replaced on 3rd downs and in the 2 minute drill.  Age has simply caught up to one of the NFL's best RBs in history.

Brian Westbrook - He's been serviceable when he's played, but he's been hurt more often than not, and it's clear that he's a part of a committee with LeSean McCoy moving forward.  His body is breaking down on him as he ages, and he's no longer the centerpiece of the Eagles offense.  He's a RB2 when he plays, but that's it.

Brandon Jacobs - For reasons completely unknown to anyone except maybe the Giants staff, Jacobs has NOT been the same RB this year.  There's nothing wrong with his team as Eli and his young WRs have taken a huge step forward this year, and Ahmad Bradshaw is running just fine behind the same line Jacobs.  He's admitted to a bit of a "knee thing" a few weeks ago, and it would not surprise me if he's hiding an injury.  As has become common on this list, his workload keeps him valuable, but he needs to start scoring more.

Clinton Portis - Portis has shown a few glimmers of hope on his runs, but he's mostly looked a step slow, and he's getting zero help from his surrounding offense.  He might have been drafted as a RB1 by owners who went QB or WR in the 1st round, and he's hardly lived up to that billing.  Portis is nearing the end, and his owners need to sell high while they can.

WR:

Calvin Johnson - He was actually building some momentum with Matthew Stafford, but then Stafford got hurt, and so did he.  The bye week should fix what ails him, but Stafford's season is in question until we know more about exactly what's wrong with his knee.  He does the best he can, but he's clearly limited by the current state of his offense.

Steve Smith - Much like a RB with the same first name, Smith is also looking for his first TD of the year.  Delhomme has looked bad, and he's getting zero help from the receiving "threats" that line up opposite him.  A regressing QB, regressing offense, and no help have meant constant double teams, and there's no end in sight.

Anquan Boldin - He's posted fairly solid numbers in the games he's played, but he's been limited by his usual array of nagging injuries.  He simply cannot shake the injury bug, and it's had a big effect on his game thus far this season.  With Warner not looking the same and apparently another injury added onto his current ailments, Boldin is not going to live up to his draft value.

Terrell Owens - It's hard to tell if his age is catching up to him since he never gets the ball.  The Bills simply don't have the coaching staff or the quarterback to make use of Owens and Evans, and Owens is nothing more than a possible WR3 option this year.  Owners have to pray that a miraculous trade gets him out of Buffalo, but that seems highly unlikely.

Antonio Bryant - His offseason knee surgery combined with poor quarterback play are to blame.  All the warning signs were there before the season started, and unfortunately for those who still drafted him, they've all proven to be true.  He's a match up WR3 at best right now.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - He's had a 100 yard game and a 2 TD game so far, but 3 other games where he hasn't done much.  Their offensive line is the root of the problem, and that's not going away.  He's a solid WR3, but that's not what he was drafted to be.

Roy Williams - Outside of week 1, he's done almost nothing.  He was expected to replace T.O., and he hasn't come close to doing it.  Furthermore, Miles Austin might just be more talented than Williams is, and he's going to lose even more targets to Austin if he emerges.  He's not even a WR3 right now.

Eddie Royal - Heading into the season, Royal was expected to man the slot and play the Wes Welker role in this offense.  Instead, Royal has lined up wide and gone deep a lot.  While Royal undoubtedly has deep speed, he doesn't have the size to be a consistent deep threat, and with Marshall around, he's not going to score many TDs.  Week 5 provided some hope, but he's going to need to really break out to make it past being a possible WR3.

TE:

Jason Witten - Romo's struggles have hurt Witten, and Owens leaving has allowed defenses to play up closer and pay a lot more attention to the Cowboys' best receiving threat.  As mentioned above, if Miles Austin can emerge, it will give Witten more room to work with over the middle.  He does have some hope, but he's not going to re-emerge as the top TE in fantasy football.

Greg Olsen - After an offseason of hype, defenses were ready and Olsen has been doubled relentlessly.  Moving forward, Cutler is showing improved chemistry with Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Johnny Knox, so hopefully their work outside will give Olsen more room to work over the middle.  Also, the lack of a running game is hurting their play action, and those plays are often beneficial to getting the TE open.  He'll improve, but he's not taking that huge leap that many expected.

Week 6 Thoughts

Arizona Cardinals - Business as usual for the Cardinals.  Lots of passing, some running, and standard stat lines for just about everyone.  Steve Breaston is worth mentioning as a solid WR3 not getting a lot of press.  He's kinda like Wes Welker where he catches a good amount of passes but doesn't score a lot.

Atlanta Falcons - Ryan had a low yardage game, but the Bears defense played well and kept the Falcons offense a bit out of sync.  Turner is still not consistently churning out yardage whatsoever, but his scores are keeping his value afloat.

Baltimore Ravens - The conversion to a pass-first offense is officially in full effect, and despite minimal carries, Ray Rice is killing it right now with ridiculous efficiency per touch.  Rice has moved into RB1 territory, and he stands to become even more involved as the season moves along.

Buffalo Bills - Lynch has taken over as the lead back of the committee, but Jackson is still plenty involved.  Both are hurt quite a bit by the offensive situation, but Lynch is more valuable right now.  The passing game continues to kill both Owens and Evans, although Evans showed good chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Carolina Panthers - The Panthers ran like it was 2008 thanks to the horrid Bucs rushing defense, but both RBs remain match up RB2s thanks to the putrid passing game.  Said passing game is killing Steve Smith, who's only a WR3 thanks to his situation.  Steve Smith is a reminder to never stay married to just talent...you have to analyze the team situation as it most certainly can kill elite talent (Steven Jackson and Lee Evans also come to mind).

Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer continues to disappoint.  Not even a great match up against Houston allowed him to turn in a breakthrough performance.  There's no question he has the talent and also the talent around him, so I still believe that he'll come through eventually this season.  Until then, he's only a very low end QB1.

Chicago Bears - The offensive line is killing Matt Forte.  He's constantly dodging defenders in the backfield on his carries and can never seem to truly get going.  Luckily he continues to get plenty of touches, so you can continue playing him on a weekly basis.

Cleveland Browns - Complete disaster.  I believe it's only a matter of time before Brady Quinn gets his job back, but nobody on this offense is worth thinking about right now.

Dallas Cowboys - Bye week.

Denver Broncos - Monday night game.

Detroit Lions - The offense was predictably impotent without both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.  Kevin Smith continues to do the best he can, but he's getting no help when his surrounding talent level is this depleted due to injuries.  He's still a RB2 thanks to his workload.

Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers lived off of the short passing game, and unfortunately with the re-injury of Chad Clifton, this will probably be their identity for the near future.  Given the favorable match ups against Detroit yesterday and Cleveland this upcoming Sunday, I don't know why Clifton was allowed back out there.  This will continue to hurt Greg Jennings as his specialty is getting down field.

Houston Texans - The Arizona Cardinals of the AFC.  With a horribly inefficient rushing attack, they will continue to go pass heavy, benefiting all owners of Schaub, AJ, Daniels, and Slaton (PPR leagues only).  Unfortunately for those who own Kevin Walter, we're seeing Daniels pass him as the #2 target.

Indianapolis Colts - Bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD got what he wanted and responded in a huge way, likely winning many fantasy match ups this weekend.  Sims-Walker also got back on track with a big game.  Those are the only two guys worth mentioning on this offense.

Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs got their first win against the Redskins this week, although it wasn't pretty on offense with Cassel throwing for less than 200 yards and taking 5 sacks.  Luckily he was locked onto Dwayne Bowe, who proved he was healthy with a nice showing.

Miami Dolphins - Bye week.

Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre continues to throw like a QB1.  Sidney Rice exploded with a week-high 176 yards, further cementing himself as one of the breakthrough WRs of 2009.  He's a weekly WR3 who's the top receiving target in an explosive offense.

New England Patriots - I think it's safe to say the passing attack rebounded yesterday.  Let's hope this jump starts them to a strong finish as the big three all had excellent games.  Laurence Maroney had his best game of the season, and there's a chance he could emerge as the primary ball carrier here thanks to Sammy Morris' injury.

New Orleans Saints - Brees rebounded in a big way, and Lance Moore finally posted a good game as well.  Thomas and Bell are officially in a committee, although Thomas is definitely the lead back as Bell got more of his carries when the game was out of hand.  However, Bell is the preferred goal line option now, and that kills Thomas' value as he'll have to score from distance.  Thomas is a solid RB2, but lacks upside with Bell taking the goal line carries.

New York Giants - This was an all-around ugly game that should be forgotten.  Luckily Bradshaw scored after Jacobs left with an injury, which allowed him to be quite useful as a RB2 this week.

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez had another meltdown, although this time it came against a mediocre Buffalo defense.  Thomas Jones and Leon Washington did their best to save him, but it was to no avail.  Take this opportunity to sell high on Thomas Jones...he's had 2 huge games sandwiched around a bunch of crap.  Washington continues to be heavily involved in this offense, and for good reason.

Oakland Raiders - Dog's ass, meet sunshine.  Justin Fargas has passed Michael Bush again, although it really doesn't matter.  Zach Miller abused Philly and remains on the fantasy radar despite the crappy situation around him.

Philadelphia Eagles - Much like the Giants, although against the most polar opposite opponent you could find.  This, too, is worth forgetting.  Keep your Eagles going next week.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Big Ben is winging it all over the field, and while Holmes and Ward put up good games, it's worth mentioning Heath Miller.  He is finally being consistently utilized in the passing game, and he's a TE1 going forward.  Mendenhall is officially the lead back of the Steelers' running committee, and while he didn't have his best game in the YPC department, he got the majority of the carries, scored, and caught a couple passes.

San Diego Chargers - Monday night game.

San Francisco 49ers - Bye week.

Seattle Seahawks - Horrible.  Seattle's decimated offensive line caved in against a tough Arizona front 7, and this is good information moving forward.  You must not only consider the secondary when deciding to use Hasselbeck, but you must also consider the pass rush he's facing.  This line can't protect him against a good front.

St. Louis Rams - The Rams looked great on the first drive, and then Donnie Avery left hurt again, and it imploded once more.  The line is actually doing a solid job of protection, but with Robinson done for the year and Avery hurt again, there is no talent left at the WR position.  Needless to say, this is killing Steven Jackson as he failed to score again, and has zero TDs on the year thus far.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Johnson took 4 more sacks and tossed another INT without managing a TD.  Tampa scored 21, but can thank their special teams and defense for 14 of that.  Caddy had a nice game, but outside of Winslow, there's no one here I'd want to start every week.

Tennessee Titans - Expect Kerry Collins to lose his job.  He's making the Titans look terrible for giving him that extension this offseason.  Chris Johnson salvaged his day with a couple long runs, but nobody else on this team did anything positive.

Washington Redskins - The Skins have hit rock bottom, even benching Jason Campbell for old man Todd Collins.  This team is doing nowhere.