Free Agency Period Analysis

Now that some of the smoke has settled, let's take a look at the fantasy impact the free agency period has produced:

QB:

Matt Cassel - Cassel was traded from the Patriots to the Chiefs. His value obviously gets a boost as he'll be the starter for KC in 2009, as to where he was reliant on Tom Brady's injury to continue starting in NE. I'm not entirely sold on his talent as there's such a small sample to look at, but he does have receiving talent in KC with Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent, Mark Bradley. Jamaal Charles is also an excellent 3rd down RB. It remains to be seen who will be running the ball for them. I think he has a chance to be a good QB2, and possibly a borderline QB1 in 2009.

Sage Rosenfels - Rosenfels was traded from the Texans to the Vikings. Much like Cassel, his value goes up as well as he'll most likely be the Vikings starter in 2009 instead of backing up injury-prone Matt Schaub in Houston. He's mistake-prone, and he's moving from a pass-first offense in Houston with lots of weapons to a run-first offense in Minnesota with medicore weapons outside of deep threat Bernard Berrian, although fellow starter Sydney Rice does indeed have talent. He'll be nothing more than a QB2 in 2009.

Kurt Warner - Warner re-signed with the Cardinals, which was the most ideal situation for his 200 fantasy value. It remains to be seen what the Cardinals will do with Anquan Boldin, but Warner should maintain QB1 value in 2009.

Kerry Collins - Collins re-signed with the Titans, and he'll resume being in the bottom 3rd of possible fantasy QBs in 2009.

Jay Cutler - Rumors had Cutler almost going to either the Bucs or Lions via a 3 way trade that would have brought Matt Cassel to Denver, but neither trade materialized. This has caused a big disconnect between Cutler and new coach Josh McDaniels. While I personally feel McDaniels is an idiot for trying to deal for a lesser QB, his history and relationship with Cassel obviously played a big role in trying to trade for him. Don't expect anything to come of this rift: Cutler will start for Denver in week 1.

Brett Favre - Favre retired, finally, leaving the Jets with almost zero experience at the QB position. A battle between Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff appears to be the most likely scenario, but perhaps something could happen in the draft.

RB:

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch was arrested for a gun-related charge, and he likely faces at least a 1 game suspension from the league, with rumors stating it might be longer than that. Stay tuned to this story as it develops.

Fred Taylor - Taylor signed with the Patriots, and will battle Maroney for early down carries in 2009. He'll likely be nothing more than a RB4 with moderate upside.

Cedric Benson - Benson re-signed with the Bengals, and he'll likely have the upper hand for their starting RB position. However, look for the Bengals to add talent at the position in the draft.

Correll Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan/J.J. Arrington - Denver clearly solved their logjam at the RB position by signing 3 guys that are medicore talents. Shannahan may have left, but McDaniels certainly isn't improving the RB situation in Denver whatsoever.

LaDainian Tomlinson - LT's situation could get interesting. As it stands right now, LT is slated to make more than recently franchised Darren Sproles, but the Chargers want him to take a paycut. LT is balking, and for obvious reasons because if he returns, he'll undoubtedly be the bigger part of the RB committee. It remains to be seen how this stalemate will be resolved.

Marion Barber/Felix Jones - Jerry Jones came out this week and stated that he wants to return Barber to his previous "closer" role. It certainly dims Barber's 2009 upside, and gives a boon to Felix Jones' value. However, Jerry is smart because this is what's best for the Cowboys offense. With T.O. gone, their 2 best talents outside of Tony Romo play the RB position.

Derrick Ward - Ward signed with the Buccaneers, and he's the favorite to start for the Bucs in week 1. His all-around talent is good as he possess 3 down capability as both a good runner and pass catcher, and Earnest Graham will be coming off of major knee surgery. I can't see him getting 300 carries given his lengthy injury history, but Ward could be a decent RB2 option in 2009.

WR/TE:

Laveranues Coles - Coles signed with the Bengals, and he'll start opposite Chad Johnson in 2009. Coles tends to get banged up, but he's a very tough football player who is similarly reliable to the departed Houshmandzedeh. He cost less than Housh, but provides a similar skill set.

Marvin Harrison - The Colts cut Harrison, and this could mark the end of his excellent career. He'll be replaced in the lineup by Anthony Gonzalez, who's set to see his fantasy value grow quite a bit. Gonzalez should be very nice WR3 in 2009.

Brandon Marshall - Marshall got himself arrested yet again, and while the charges were dropped, it remains likely that the NFL will suspend him yet again. Pay very close attention to this situation as rumors have his suspension ranging from 1-8 games. Given he already received a 1 game suspension last year, I have to think he's in line for a mutiple game suspension this time around.

Terrell Owens - Owens was released by the Cowboys, and as of this moment, 15 teams have publically denied that they're interested in signing him. It's slightly possible that he could become the Barry Bonds of the NFL where all teams refuse to sign him, but I imagine a team that is desparate at WR (TEN?) will eventually give him a home.

Antonio Bryant - Bryant was franchised by the Buccaneers, which was a smart move considering his checkered off-the-field history. He'll be motivated to play well again this year, and the addition of Winslow will keep defenses from keying solely on him.

Kellen Winslow - Winslow was traded from the Browns to the Buccaneers. It remains to be seen what this does to his fantasy value as the Bucs current starting QB is Luke McCown. Unless they add talent at the QB position somehow, it's hard to see McCown doing much to increase Winslow's value over what he saw last year with Anderson/Quinn/Dorsey.

Anquan Boldin - Boldin is still under contract, but he's also still demanding a trade. 2009 NFL Draft Day, or shortly before it, will likely provide the answer to whether he'll be dealt or not.

T.J. Houshmandzedeh - Housh signed with the Seahawks. He'll immediately become their #1 WR, and if Hasselbeck can return to health, Housh should be a solid WR2 in 2009. Hasselbeck is the key to his 2009 value.

Torry Holt - Holt hasn't been released quite yet by the Rams, but it appears to be inevitable at this point. Expect him to sign elsewhere relatively quickly. His stats have taken a nose-dive, but one must consider the awful surrounding offense he's played in the past two seasons. He still runs routes with the best of them.

TE Value Analysis Recap

1) Jason Witten
ADP: 43.7 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 2nd

Recap: Despite all the bad things that happened to the Cowboys in 2008, and the injuries that Witten suffered, he was still a stud TE.

2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 44.3 (4th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 4th

Recap: Gates proved once again that he has no problem playing through injuries, which is something I should have known already. Gates turned into another fine season in 2008.

3) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 50.0 (5th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 22nd

Overview: Winslow missed 6 games with injuries, and suffered along with the rest of the offense through the other 10 games. He was decent TE1 when he played, but the injuries killed him this year.

4) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 61.5 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 1st

Recap: In a move that nobody saw coming, KC used Tyler Thigpen as their starter, and also adopted the spread offense. Gonzalez was as dominant as ever once that occurred, posting a monster 2nd half of 627 yards and 7 TDs.

5) Dallas Clark
ADP: 66.5 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Much like Jennings, I went the wrong way with Clark, predicting less receptions and yards to catch up to the TDs, where instead while his TDs did decrease, his yardage increased quite a bit. This was due to the fact I felt Harrison would rebound, thus that impacted my ranking on Clark.

6) Chris Cooley
ADP: 72.6 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 9th

Recap: Cooley provided excellent yardage for his owners, but the 1 TD stung quite a bit. Still, he was a solid fantasy TE.

7) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 77.9 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Jeremy Shockey is the new starting TE.

Overview: Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries, and he also just never fully integrated himself into the offense.

8) Vernon Davis
ADP: 95.8 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Pretty hard to perform when you're too busy pissing your coach off.

9) Todd Heap
ADP: 100.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 23rd

Recap: Heap was told to block, so he blocked, and rarely caught passes.

10) Heath Miller
ADP: 111.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 16th

Recap: Miller was another victim of the non-existent Steelers passing attack. There just weren't enough balls thrown his way.

11) Ben Watson
ADP: 121.0 (10th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Recap: NE is finally souring on the super-talented Watson as he's just not a very good football player.

12) Alge Crumpler
ADP: 129.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Crumpler never recovered from his knee injuries, and he never passed Bo Scaife to start.

Sleepers:

13) Tony Scheffler
ADP: 136.4 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 12th

Overview: Scheffler started hot, but then missed 4 games, which took a toll on his stats. He was certainly a TE1 when he played.

14) Owen Daniels
ADP: 155.1 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Overview: Daniels was indeed the best draft day bargain among TEs, turning in an excellent season for his owners.

16) Greg Olsen
ADP: 175.0 (14th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: 11th

Overview: Olsen still split too much time with Desmond Clark, but he impressed when on the field and turned in a solid TE1 season.

TE Summary:

Hits: Witten, Cooley, Watson, sleepers
Misses: Everyone else.

Another bad group here. My sleepers all turned out to be great value picks, and I owned 2/3 TEs of that group in both of my leagues. They allowed you to focus on all the other positions in the first 10 rounds, and then grab your starting TE after that, which is awesome flexibility. Another thing I plan to improve upon next year along with the value analysis is explaining what I'll be doing in my drafts. I avoided all TEs before the sleepers last year, and I should have been more clear as that would have been quite helpful for those who decided to go with that approach.

WR4 Value Analysis Recap

37) Derrick Mason
ADP: 96.2 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 22nd

Recap: Mason is the toughest kind of WR to target, which are the aging veterans. Some throw in one good last season while others go in the tank for good. Mason did the former, thanks to a solid rookie QB season from Joe Flacco. Mason was his go-to guy all year and he turned in a borderline WR2 season.

38) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 100.1 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 17th

Recap: Once Frerotte took over, Berrian exploded. If there was one thing Frerotte could do well, it was get the ball downfield. He missed 2 games with injuries and turned in a few too many clunkers, but was ultimately a fine WR3.

39) Reggie Williams
ADP: 102.4 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Reggie Williams sucks, and could be out of the NFL.

40) Bobby Engram
ADP: 105.4 (9th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Recap: I forgot to update Engram's value status in my draft guide as well, which is something I'll have to do a better job of next year when making player updates. Engram suffered both the major injury of a broken shoulder bone, and also the crippling effect that Hasselbeck's injury had on the Seattle passing game. He had no value.

41) Ronald Curry
ADP: 116.2 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Overview: Curry simply didn't pan out thanks to the erratic Oakland passing game, the coaching change, and all sorts of other things.

42) Donte Stallworth
ADP: 119.3 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Stallworth bombed yet again, this time in a different city.

43) Darrell Jackson
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Jackson actually did some good things when he got on the field, but thanks to the rapid development of Eddie Royal, and the solid presence of Stokley in the slot, he was rarely needed.

44) D.J. Hackett
ADP: 123.2 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Hackett couldn't stay on the field, and never passed Muhammad as a starter. Bust.

45) Sydney Rice
ADP: 130.7 (11th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Overview: Rice had trouble staying healthy, and then when he was on the field, Berrian and Shiancoe dominated the targets in the run-heavy Vikings offense.

46) Nate Burleson
ADP: 142.5 (12th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Burleson actually looked pretty solid...in week 1 before tearing up his knee.

47) Jerry Porter
ADP: 143.9 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Monster bust. Everyone's favorite sleeper sucked a fat one.

48) Bryant Johnson
ADP: 144.2 (12th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish:56th

Recap: Like I said in the presason, there was always something about Bryant Johnson that had his occasional fantasy owners wanting more. This time, it was a lot more.

WR4 Summary:

Hits: Berrian, Williams, Engram, Hackett
Misses: Everyone else.

Mason and Berrian were the only good WRs here, but luckily since these were bench WRs, they were likely replaced by someone else shortly after the season started.

WR3 Value Analysis Recap

25) Joey Galloway
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Galloway's age finally caught up to him last year, and he bombed.

26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 53rd

Recap: Chambers got off to a great start, but then an injury derailed his momentum and he either missed games or played hurt the majority of the season.

27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: Matt Ryan turned in one of the best rookie QB seasons of all time, thanks in part to Michael Turner, and Roddy White was the big beneficiary of that. White was a WR1 all season long.

28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

2008 Finish: 11th

Recap: I recommended Jackson as a WR3, but erroneously preferred Chambers to him. Jackson stepped up and proved that he was the top dog in the Chargers offense, and with LT hurting all year, there were more receptions to go around.

29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 24th

Recap: Coles played through more injuries in 2008, and just as expected, he posted borderline WR2 numbers.

30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Recap: Curtis' hernia surgery killed his season. I forgot to update his value in my draft guide, but I did post stating not to draft him anymore.

31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 30th

Recap: Cotchery was not worth reaching for. Favre's jeckyl/hyde passing game hurt Cotchery's consistency as his targets were all over the board on a weekly basis.

32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 43rd

Recap: Gonzalez simply did not get enough targets to put up WR3 numbers in 2008.

33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Recap: We have learned that Reggie Brown is not a very good football player. End of story.

34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 17th

Recap: Moss turned in a healthy season, missing only one game, but faded down the stretch as the Redskins offense went south. With Portis running the show in the first half, Moss was a stud WR1, but he faded badly in the 2nd half. Still, he provided a nice return on investment as a WR3.

35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Walker's knees just aren't allowing him to do much anymore, which is a shame. He busted again in 2008.

36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 49th

Recap: Crayton regressed in 2008, and was barely worth using in fantasy leagues.

WR3 Summary:

Hits: Galloway, White, Coles, Curtis, Gonzalez, Moss, Walker
Misses: Chambers, Jackson, Cotchery, Brown, Crayton

7/12, so a little better. I did recommend Jackson, although ultimately I still had him partially marked as over-valued.

WR2 Value Analysis Recap

13) Plaxico Burress

ADP: 36.1 (3rd round, 12th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 59th

Recap: Owners who drafted Burress really shot themselves in the foot. Or leg. Yeah, that was a bit too easy.

14) Anquan Boldin

ADP: 39.9 (4th round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 7th

Recap: I updated Fitzgerald, but forgot to update Boldin to undervalued. At any rate, Boldin exceeded expectations but being the #1 fantasy WR until his annual injury, and that included the 2 missed games in weeks 5 and 6 after becoming a human sandwich. Unfortunately a leg injury slowed his season down after week 12, and he missed weeks 16 and 17. At any rate, when on the field, Boldin was a WR1.

15) Greg Jennings

ADP: 41.7 (4th round, 6th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 4th

Recap: Uh yeah, huge miss here. I took the wrong side of the logic. In 2007, Jennings generated way too many TDs per catch, so it would stand to reason that either his TDs will crash, or his receptions will rise. The aging Driver passed the torch to Jennings as Rodgers big arm was a perfect fit for Jennings downfield ability. Jennings turned in a stud year.

16) Roy Williams

ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 71st

Overview: Hot freaking vomit. Possibly my two biggest misses back to back here. Calvin Johnson took over in Detroit while Roy sulked and sucked, and then he was traded to a team that had little interest in using him. Horrible bust.

17) Santonio Holmes

ADP: 50.5 (5th round round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 32nd

Recap: Another miss, although this one wasn't quite as bad as the last two. The PIT passing game was essentially non-existent in 2008, and Holmes suffered before a huge playoff run. Nice for him to do that after the fantasy season was over. Holmes was a WR3 and nothing more.

18) Hines Ward

ADP: 56.6 (5th round, 8th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 16th

Recap: While Holmes was inconsistently used, Ward maintained his steady pace, putting in another fine WR2 season. They swapped the numbers I expected each other to post.

19) Brandon Marshall

ADP: 57.2 (5th round, 9th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Recap: 12th

Overview: Marshall exploded out of the gates, and then settled into posting solid numbers all season long. He's here to stay as a WR1.

20) Marvin Harrison

ADP: 57.2 (5th round round, 9th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 42nd

Recap: Harrison's knees didn't give him an explosiveness, and they might have ended his career. Harrison was a bust.

21) Calvin Johnson

ADP: 57.3 (5th round, 9th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 3rd

Recap: Calvin was simply one of the best WRs in football last season, which was incredibly amazing given the crap QBs he had throwing him the ball. He's here to stay as a dominant WR force.

22) Dwayne Bowe

ADP: 59.7 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 18th

Recap: Bowe gave you exactly what you expected from him, and he was a rock solid WR2 in 2008.

23) Lee Evans

ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 26th

Overview: Evans was indeed undervalued for the first half of the season, but then things went terrible wrong in the 2nd half as the Bills offense slowly fell apart. He turned in a pretty solid season and gave you a nice return on investment, but he wasn't worth reaching for.

24) Donald Driver

ADP: 70.3 (6th round, 10th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 23rd

Recap: Driver actually turned out to be a solid investment in 2008, thanks to the excellent play of Aaron Rodgers.

WR2 Summary:

Hits: Burress, Boldin, Marshall, C. Johnson, Bowe
Misses: Too many.

5/12...awful. Needs improvement.

WR1 Value Analysis Recap

1) Randy Moss

ADP: 7.9 (1st round, 8th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th

Recap: Moss actually turned in a valiant effort in 2008. Owners undoubtedly panicked after Brady's injury in week 1, but once Cassel settled in, Moss turned back into the WR1 that he was expected to be. However, he certainly didn't turn in the season expected after being taken as the first WR off the board.

2) Reggie Wayne

ADP: 13.6 (2nd round, 1st pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 13th

Recap: Wayne just simply didn't live up to expectations in 2008. I checked his split stats, wondering if Manning's slow start hurt him, but he posted very similar numbers in both the 1st and 2nd half. His yards and TDs both dropped, and it's possible that teams overloaded on Wayne knowing that Harrison couldn't beat them anymore.

3)Terrell Owens

ADP: 14.2 (2nd round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 9th

Recap: Honestly, this was about worst case scenario. Romo got hurt, and outside of that month (120 yards and 1 TD combined over the 4 games), Owens was his usual beastly self. He was the WR1 you drafted him to be outside of that small stretch of games.

4) Braylon Edwards

ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 34th

Recap: The risk that didn't pay off. Anderson proved that 2007 was a fluke, and bombed horribly in 2008. Quinn didn't fair that much better. Of course, Edwards brought some of this on himself with a horrendous season filled with dropped passes as well. Simply put, he was a bust.

5) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

ADP: 22.7 (2nd round, 10th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 31st

Recap: Palmer got hurt, the Bengals offense tanked, and TJ simply couldn't do much with noodle-armed Fitzpatrick running the 5 yard pass show all year long. Bust.

6) Larry Fitzgerald

ADP: 22.9 (2nd round, 11th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Recap: 1st

Recap: Warner made all the difference. Fitzgerald was simply the best WR in football last year, and provided good value to all who took him. Probably could have rated him as undervalued.

7) Andre Johnson

ADP: 23.9 (2nd round, 12th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 2nd

Recap: Johnson had a monster 2008 season indeed. No matter the QB, AJ went about his business, torturing defenses all season long. It took longer than expected, but AJ finally has the supporting offensive system to put his tremendous talent to full use.

8) Steve Smith

ADP: 24.8 (3rd round, 1st pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 5th

Recap: 2 game suspension? Pff, who cares. Smitty still tore up defenses all season long, finishing 5th among all WRs despite missing 2 full games.

9) Marques Colston

ADP: 27.1 (3rd round, 3rd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 36th

Recap: Farking injuries. Colston missed 6 games with a torn finger ligament suffered in week 1, but posted WR1 numbers when he played. Colston is turning into Boldin's little brother with regards to performing like a WR1 on the field, but also carrying a certainty of a few missed games during the season.

10) Chad Johnson

ADP: 29.1 (3rd round, 5th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 51st

Overview: CJ seemingly wasn't affected by his labrum injury, although it was hard to tell with the crap offense in Cincy during 2008. Bust.

11) Torry Holt

ADP: 33.4 (3rd round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 41st

Recap: Much like Housh/CJ in Cincy, STL's offense also fell apart, and Holt appeared completely disinterested in playing football. Bust.

12) Wes Welker

ADP: 36.0 (3rd round, 12th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 21st

Recap: Welker actually posted a fairly solid WR2 season by the numbers, but rarely scored with only 3 TDs, making him more of a rock solid WR3 during 2008. He certainly didn't live up to his draft spot.

WR1 Summary:

Hits: Moss, Edwards, Owens, Housh, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Smith, C. Johnson, Welker
Misses: Holt (?), Wayne, Colston

9/3 split, so pretty good. Wayne just didn't live up to expectations, while Colston suffered a 6 week injury which prevented him from reaching his expectations. I marked Holt as over-valued, but labeled him as a solid WR1/2, so I was kinda 50% there depending on what you took closer to heart.

RB3 Value Analysis Recap

25) Thomas Jones

ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 5th

Recap: Jones anchored the running game of a resurgent Jets team that almost made the playoffs. With Favre stabilizing the passing game, somewhat, Jones made a 14 TD improvement in 2008 as he miraculously returned to RB1 status.

26) LenDale White

ADP: 54.2 (5th round, 6th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 19th

Recap: This ranking is also very mis-leading. Now White scored in more games than he didn't, but with Chris Johnson amazingly dominating the touches in most games, White got very little action. He only had two games of 20+ carries. He actually wasn't a bad RB2, all things considered, which did provide good value here.

27) Rudi Johnson

ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 73rd

Recap: Johnson was cut by the Bengals, played in some games with the Lions, and was mostly worthless.

28) Fred Taylor

ADP: 57.1 (5th round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 56th

Recap: Taylor was simply not the same player in 2008. Some of it had to do with the injuries that decimated the offensive line, but while Taylor ran with authority, he showed his age and only scored once. He wasn't a fantasy option at all this year.

29) Jonathan Stewart

ADP: 61.8 (6th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 24th

Recap: Stewart never captured the starting role like I thought he would thanks to the amazing season by DeAngelo Williams. Stewart did, however, show plenty of promise when given the carries. He was a RB2 in the right matchups during 2008.

30) Matt Forte

ADP: 64.1 (6th round, 4th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 3rd

Recap: Forte was insanely consistent all season long thanks to a bunch of touches in both the running game and passing game. Chicago's commitment to the run benefited him all season long, and they were creative to get him involved in the passing game as well. Forte was certainly one of 2008's pleasant surprises.

31) Selvin Young

ADP: 66.7 (6th round, 7th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: I'm an idiot. Young was never relied upon to do much, and even then, he still got hurt. This will probably be the last year you even think of him.

32) Kevin Smith

ADP: 75.2 (7th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 18th

Recap: This ranking is a bit misleading as well. Smith didn't take the starting job until week 10, so he wasn't worth starting until then, but he was excellent down the stretch as a RB2 when you needed him most. He showed a lot of promise for the future on such a bad team.

33) Rashard Mendenhall

ADP: 80.4 (7th round, 8th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: Mendenhall suffered a broken shoulder bone, which ended his season in week 4, a week after Parker went down. Much like McFadden...

34) DeAngelo Williams

ADP: 82.3 (7th round, 10th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 1st

Recap: I was dead on here. I said I didn't want him as a RB3, which was correct, as I wanted him as my RB1. Uh, yeah. Well, I did end up drafting him as a RB4 in one league, and I don't think I could have loved him any more. He honestly had an odd year. He showed promise in week 1, appeared close to losing his job after 3 straight weeks of mediocre play, exploded in week 5, turned in 2 more weeks of blah, and then absolutely exploded with 993 yards and 15 TDs in the last 8 games! That has to rank up there with among the most amazing 8 week performances in fantasy football history.

35) Deuce McAllister

ADP: 87.4 (8th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: McAllister did almost nothing in 2008 and lost his job to Pierre Thomas.

36) Chester Taylor

ADP: 87.7 (8th round, 4th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 36th

Recap: I made a mistake with my value call here. I meant undervalued to Peterson owners, specifically, as obviously I wasn't going to suggest grabbing him as anything more than a RB3. Regardless, he had zero stand-alone value as Peterson never went down, and Taylor never got more than 11 carries in a game.

RB3 Summary:

Hits: Jones, White, Johnson, F. Taylor, Stewart, Forte, Smith, McAllister
Misses: Young, Mendenhall, Williams, C. Taylor

Another 8/4 split. Young and Williams were dreadful calls, which is really disappointing given Williams ended #1. Mendenhall was injured, and Chester Taylor should have been specified better per his situation.

RB2 Value Analysis Recap

13) Laurence Maroney

ADP: 20.8 (2nd round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: Maroney was yet again a bust. Inconsistent play followed by another injury that eventually put him on IR. He was obviously a good player to avoid.

14) Brandon Jacobs

ADP: 22.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 12th

Recap: The Giants were again studly running the football in 2008, and Jacobs led the charge with another very solid season. He missed 2 more games, including week 15, but finished with a monster 3 TD performance in week 16. You pretty much got exactly what you expected when you drafted him.

15) Jamal Lewis

ADP: 24.9 (3rd round, 1st pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 25th

Recap: Lewis ran hard all year but missed a few games with injuries, and the offense around him collapsed. He did as much as he could, but he simply isn't a good RB anymore at this point in his career.

16) Maurice Jones-Drew

ADP: 27.0 (3rd round, 3rd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 8th

Recap: MJD turned in a solid season and finished in the top 10, mostly thanks to a 12 TD performance, and the aid of 3 missed games by starter Fred Taylor. He was a bit inconsistent fantasy-wise thanks to the lack of touches, but caught plenty of passes and scored enough to mostly counter that problem.

17) Reggie Bush

ADP: 30.3 (3rd round, 6th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 28th

Recap: Bush was a RB1 for the first 6 weeks of the season, and then disaster struck and another knee injury ruined his season. He only played in 2 more games after week 7, moving from a bigtime 3rd round value to a useless fantasy commodity.

18) Ronnie Brown

ADP: 33.5 (3rd round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 16th

Recap: Brown's 2008 finish hid his actual value. He peaked in week 3 with a massive 4 TD explosion versus NE, and followed it up with a 125 yard, 1 TD performance the following week. Inexplicably, he received only one game of more than 16 carries the rest of the way as a relatively effective Ricky Williams split time almost evenly with Brown. He showed great explosion in his first year back from a torn ACL, but he just didn't get the touches down the stretch to be a difference maker.

19) Earnest Graham

ADP: 33.9 (3rd round, 10th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 45th

Recap: Graham wasn't very impressive in 2008. He was very good in 3 of the first 4 games, but split time on the field with Dunn, and his YPC crashed after week 5 before a torn knee ligament ended his season in week 11. He didn't come close to recapturing his 2007 magic.

20) Michael Turner

ADP: 36.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 2nd

Recap: Rookie QB? No contribution in the passing game? It simply doesn't matter when lead the league in carries and score 17 TDs. Turner showed early on that good defenses could hold him down, but then Matt Ryan proved wise beyond his years, Roddy White dominated the receiving attack, and Turner moved the chains over and over again. He certainly should have been ranked as under valued and taken a round earlier, but who knew?

21) Edgerrin James

ADP: 40.5 (4th round, 4th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 53rd

Recap: Edge proved to be the same player yet again, and found the bench after week 5 while failing to provide any sort of spark to the running game in the early going. He won't start again.

22) Willie Parker

ADP: 45.3 (4th round, 9th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 40th

Recap: Parker exploded out of the gates in the first 2 weeks before suffering a knee injury in week 3 that caused problems until returning in week 9, missing another game in week 10, having another big game in week 11, and then proving mostly worthless the rest of the season. It's entirely possibly that he's breaking down already as he was never built to be the battering ram the Steelers have used him as.

23) Julius Jones

ADP: 49.8 (5th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 50th

Recap: If you followed my advice to draft him, and then followed my advice to sell high in my sell high column after week 4, you likely did very well for yourself. Jones exploded in weeks 2 and 3 with back-to-back 125+ yard games with a TD a piece, and then fell apart shortly after. He couldn't maintain his confidence level and is likely done as anything more than a backup RB in the NFL.

24) Darren McFadden

ADP: 51.6 (5th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 44th

Recap: It wasn't even fair for McFadden owners. Fargas was blocking his path, but after a groin injury in week 2, McFadden took the reins and exploded for 164 yard, 1 TD performance against KC. Unfortunately, that was essentially the end of McFadden as a turf toe injury ruined the rest of his season. Ugh.

RB2 Summary:

Hits: Maroney, Jacobs, Lewis, MJD, Turner, Graham, James, Jones (ONLY if you sold high)
Misses: Bush, Brown, Parker, McFadden - Mostly injuries here, although I should have known better with Bush and Parker. Brown performed better than expected, although faded down the stretch. McFadden suffered a freak injury.