So I drew the #6 pick in my local fantasy football league, and much like last year at the #3 spot, I'm sifting through a bunch of players. Here are the guys that I've thought through:
LaDainian Tomlinson - I have already removed him from consideration. He doesn't possess the skills any more to be dominant, so he has a limited ceiling, and they're not paying Sproles $6 million under the franchise tag this year to only use him as a true backup. Plus, at age 30 with all the carries he's had in his career, his downside is pretty bad. His surrounding offense looks very good again, but I'd much rather hop off the bandwagon a year early than a year late. This is in line with what I wrote for my draft guide.
Steven Jackson - The 375 f/carry study that I'm a firm believer in shows a frightening trend of RBs that never return to dominance after a season with that many touches (375 carries + (1/2) * receptions). 80% of the RBs who had a season with that many touches barely get to the RB1 level again, and they almost never return to top 5 RB status. Sure enough, Jackson has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons with leg injuries after hitting that mark in 2006. While he's been plenty productive while on the field, he hasn't been reliable. Plus, his surrounding offense looks awful. Bulger and top receiver (ha) Donnie Avery are both out already with a fractured pinkie and a fractured foot, respectively. The offensive line has improved, especially in run blocking, but how the hell are these guys going to move the ball and get a lead with such a horrible passing attack?
Chris Johnson - A great talent behind a great offensive line with an improved array of receiving talent (signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt, emergence of TE Jared Cook), but LenWhale hosses many TDs and is a drain on CJ's fantasy value. Still, very much a consideration.
DeAngelo Williams - I love his talent, and his season last year was very much real despite the fluky 20 TDs that won't be repeated. He also has a very good offensive line, and Delhomme/Smith will keep defenses out of the box. Jonathan Stewart is an even bigger threat to DWill than LenWhale is to Johnson, but Stewart couldn't stay healthy in college, and he wasn't healthy as much as he should have been last year despite being the lesser part of the committee. He didn't play last week and is continuing to miss entire practices with some undisclosed Achillies injury. DWill is definitely under consideration with Stewart still missing time.
Steve Slaton - I just don't like him that much despite him playing behind a solid offensive line on a great offense. Plus, Houston has been looking all offseason for a short yardage/goal line back, and currently have Chris Brown taking goal line carries now. Brown is hardly reliable, but it's clear that Houston prefers to not use Slaton at the goal line, and in that case, I'd rather have Chris Johnson.
Brian Westbrook - See LT. Still has great skills and will be playing for a very good offense, but I jumped off the train last year and I'm not hopping back on it this year. I don't want to own him the year he goes south for good, and he's coming off of 2 major offseason surgeries (knee, ankle). He'll be productive when on the field, but he's not going to be on the field for 16 games.
Frank Gore - Usually taken in the late 1st/early 2nd, I am hardly opposed to drafting someone earlier than ADP indicates as evidenced by my Barber pick at #3 last year. Gore is reportedly in excellent shape, and he's going to be the focal point of the offense under Mike Singletary. Much like Steven Jackson, he does everything well and doesn't have much talent behind him to push for carries. Gore's line is questionable, but he's been running behind a questionable line for years. The passing attack will improve despite Martz leaving town. Durability remains a concern after multiple ACL tears in college and several nagging injuries the past two years, but I honestly don't see much difference between him and Steven Jackson despite about 7-8 picks between the two.
Out: LT, Westbrook, Slaton
Questionable: Jackson, Williams
In: Johnson, Gore
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Vikings Sign QB Brett Favre
Here we go again. Brett Favre has successfully avoided most of training camp and will join the Vikings immediately. Given he knows Childress' playbook as well as anyone in the league, it's not a concern for him knowledge-wise, but he's going to need to use all of this time to build a chemistry with Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and the other receivers as he's obviously never thrown to them before.
At this stage in Favre's career, there is some debate on whether or not he's actually an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a good arm, is aggressive, but often makes poor decisions trying to make a play when something isn't there. Sounds a bit like Favre, no? Favre had surgery on his biceps to eliminate the cause of his problems down the stretch last season, and by early accounts, he's still throwing a laser. His decision making is still questionable, but I have to think that the team believes in Favre as a leader more than Rosenfels, so he's at least an upgrade in that area.
Fantasy Impact: Favre will have the best running back behind him that he's ever played with, a great 3rd down RB in Chester Taylor, an excellent downfield threats in Bernard Berrian, and then a complete wildcard in Percy Harvin who will line up all over and make big plays. Shiancoe is also a capable tight end. Favre is certainly not without weapons, but this is a run-first team. I think Favre makes for a solid QB2 as someone who can fill in reliably, but he's not a difference maker anymore. I would easily take Favre over guys like Hasselbeck, Pennington, Bulger, and Delhomme.
At this stage in Favre's career, there is some debate on whether or not he's actually an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a good arm, is aggressive, but often makes poor decisions trying to make a play when something isn't there. Sounds a bit like Favre, no? Favre had surgery on his biceps to eliminate the cause of his problems down the stretch last season, and by early accounts, he's still throwing a laser. His decision making is still questionable, but I have to think that the team believes in Favre as a leader more than Rosenfels, so he's at least an upgrade in that area.
Fantasy Impact: Favre will have the best running back behind him that he's ever played with, a great 3rd down RB in Chester Taylor, an excellent downfield threats in Bernard Berrian, and then a complete wildcard in Percy Harvin who will line up all over and make big plays. Shiancoe is also a capable tight end. Favre is certainly not without weapons, but this is a run-first team. I think Favre makes for a solid QB2 as someone who can fill in reliably, but he's not a difference maker anymore. I would easily take Favre over guys like Hasselbeck, Pennington, Bulger, and Delhomme.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
More Preseason Player Updates
I wanted to do another list of player updates, but this time I'm going to sort by position.
QB:
Tom Brady - Brady tore is up in his return to live action, so you can feel safe drafting him at his current ADP. He's going to go right back to being an elite QB, although you can't completely rule out a semi-slow start, but it's looking less likely after how sharp he looked in his first preseason game.
Mark Sanchez / Kellen Clemens - Sanchez looked great in the preseason opener, but he's reportedly struggled in practice since then while Clemens has looked much better. If Sanchez looks great again against Baltimore this weekend, he'll probably win the job at that point.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's arm looked great this weekend, but a sack lead to a sprained ankle. It looks to be more serious than the team is letting on, but he appears to be on track to start week 1. Still, more missed practices and preseason games after missing a lot of time last year is going to increase the probability of a slow start.
Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson - Quinn appears to be another strong performance away from winning the job. Of concern is Braylon Edwards dropping yet another pass...this time a sure TD. If he can't become more reliable, it won't matter who's starting as they won't be able to be effective with an unreliable top target with little behind him.
Ben Roethlisberger - He appears to be close to clearing his name in the supposed rape case and looks safe to draft as solid QB2/low end QB1.
Kyle Orton - Orton bombed in his preseason debut by tossing 3 INTs, including one at the goal line. I'm not wavering on him as a possible sleeper this year after only one bad game, but another bad performance or two will put him on my avoid list as a QB2. Also of concern is the lack of Brandon Marshall's participation so far due to injuries.
Matt Cassel - He's supposedly stinking up the practice field, and that only solidifies my opinion that he's a QB to avoid this year.
Byron Leftwich / Luke McCown - There has been very conflicting reports as to this battle so far, but it appears as though Leftwich will have the leg up. This only matters for 2 QB leagues as neither are draftable in 1 QB leagues.
Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This appears to be the closest battle thus far as it's hard to determine if either have the lead. Hill has always looked solid but never spectacular in games while Smith has the higher upside in terms of potential. This one might go down to the 3rd preseason game.
Marc Bulger - Bulger fractured his pinkie and will likely be out for the remainder of the preseason. This doesn't help at all as he's learning a new offense with mostly inexperienced receivers. This further cements avoiding him on draft day.
RB:
Ricky Williams - Williams, despite two very nice runs, looked a bit slow and unexplosive in the preseason. Odds are his 32 year old body is slowing down, and this further proves that Ronnie Brown will move back into a true feature RB role with Williams being a decent backup.
Pats RB Mess - This is yet another mess this season, but I still think that Maroney is the back to own with a low ADP and the highest upside of the NE backfield.
Ray Rice - Rice looked outstanding in his preaseason debut and appears to be the featured RB for the offense this season. He has taken the lead among the 3 headed monster and is the back to own in Baltimore. His ADP has shot up to 70.3, or 6th round/10th pick. He's no longer the great sleeper he was when I wrote my draft guide, but he's an outstanding RB3 in the 6th round.
Steve Slaton / Chris Brown - As expected, Brown entered in the Texans first goal line situation and punched one in from 2 yards out. This hurts Slaton's value as he is no longer the goal line RB, and I would not want to take him as my RB1 in the first round in a non-PPR league.
Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Brown looked awesome in his first preseason game, supporting the hype of this well-rounded RB. It's hard to believe that he'll unseat Addai as the starter given what occurred 3 years ago with Rhodes/Addai, but he's certainly in line for close to half the carries, and he's being drafted at 85.6 on average as opposed to Addai at 44. Addai has the bigger name, but Brown is a far better value.
Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush - No movement here yet, but McFadden looked spry and explosive in his preseason debut, showing that he's over the toe injuries he suffered last year. McFadden is going to start sooner or later, and Bush is well worth investing as a RB5.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw looked phenominal in his preseason debut, and he was a favorite of one of my favorite fantasy writers, Matt Waldman at FFToday, when he was drafted. Waldman is an outstanding rookie scouter, so I take his analysis seriously. With Ward gone, Bradshaw will be more than just Jacobs backup, and with an ADP of 139.5 (sure to rise some after his preseason debut), he's an absolute steal.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is back to practicing, so he looks safe to draft if you're into high risk/high upside 1st round fantasy RBs. I'll pass and opt for super talented backup LeSean McCoy instead at his 104.7 ADP.
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart - Williams looked like his 2008 self in the preseason opener while Stewart was on the sideline with his rumored Achillies-related injury. Stewart is back to not practicing, so Williams is starting to look safer to draft in the first round. Stewart has a history of leg-related injuries (toe in college, various dings last season), and the fact he isn't even practicing is allowing Williams to put some distance in between them. The fact they aren't commenting on this problem is starting to become a legit concern.
Tim Hightower / Chris Wells - Wells reinjured his ankle again at practice, and Hightower is going to start week 1 barring a miracle. Hightower has improved per camp reports, and he's already anchored into a permanent 3rd down role. Hightower is starting to look like the RB to draft here, especially at the much lower ADP of 96.6.
WR:
Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is starting to become a desirable WR3 target the more I think about it. He's the clear-cut top option for the Jets passing game, and while they are most definitely a run-first team, there's no reason he can't post similar numbers to what Derrick Mason did last season in the Ravens offense.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has been missing practices with a supposed hamstring injury, has admitted not knowing the playbook, and is missing practices with a new quarterback. Marshall cannot be drafted as a WR1 right now despite his upside because he's destined for a slow start at this rate. He has the time and the talent to rebound, but his continued rift with the Broncos team is also a concern. He's better as a WR2.
Dwayne Bowe - Much has been made of his demotion to 5 billionth string on the Chiefs depth chart, but Todd Haley simply wants to see a better work ethic from Bowe to match his talent level. He dominated in his first preseason action, and there's no reason to think he won't be starting soon. Cassel's struggles are of a greater concern than Bowe's current depth chart position.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens was just starting to emerge as a sleeper option in fantasy leagues prior to fracturing his foot. He's safely on the don't draft list, but someone to keep in mind as the season gets going.
Devin Hester - Hester dominated targets from Jay Cutler and appears to have the ability to really produce nice numbers as Cutler's top WR target. His upside is limited by his inexperience at the position, but he has the speed for big plays and should be a solid WR3 in non-PPR leagues.
Steve Smith - Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice and missed the first preseason game, but he's back practicing in a limited fashion and will be ready for week 1. He's a solid WR1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, and while he appears on target to start week 1, he'll be playing in a new offense with a new QB. The reasons to avoid drafting him at his late 4th/early 5th round ADP grow.
Donnie Avery - Much like Schilens, and actually a couple days before, Avery fractured his foot. He's transitioning to a new offense and needed the practice time, and he's unlikely to be ready for the first week or two of the regular season, so he's a WR4 at best.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Clark suffered a slight concussion in practice, but has returned. He has a history of concussions, so this bears watching, but he's safe to draft. Just beware of his lengthy injury history and understand that a reliable TE2 is much more necessary with him than the other top 5 TEs.
QB:
Tom Brady - Brady tore is up in his return to live action, so you can feel safe drafting him at his current ADP. He's going to go right back to being an elite QB, although you can't completely rule out a semi-slow start, but it's looking less likely after how sharp he looked in his first preseason game.
Mark Sanchez / Kellen Clemens - Sanchez looked great in the preseason opener, but he's reportedly struggled in practice since then while Clemens has looked much better. If Sanchez looks great again against Baltimore this weekend, he'll probably win the job at that point.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's arm looked great this weekend, but a sack lead to a sprained ankle. It looks to be more serious than the team is letting on, but he appears to be on track to start week 1. Still, more missed practices and preseason games after missing a lot of time last year is going to increase the probability of a slow start.
Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson - Quinn appears to be another strong performance away from winning the job. Of concern is Braylon Edwards dropping yet another pass...this time a sure TD. If he can't become more reliable, it won't matter who's starting as they won't be able to be effective with an unreliable top target with little behind him.
Ben Roethlisberger - He appears to be close to clearing his name in the supposed rape case and looks safe to draft as solid QB2/low end QB1.
Kyle Orton - Orton bombed in his preseason debut by tossing 3 INTs, including one at the goal line. I'm not wavering on him as a possible sleeper this year after only one bad game, but another bad performance or two will put him on my avoid list as a QB2. Also of concern is the lack of Brandon Marshall's participation so far due to injuries.
Matt Cassel - He's supposedly stinking up the practice field, and that only solidifies my opinion that he's a QB to avoid this year.
Byron Leftwich / Luke McCown - There has been very conflicting reports as to this battle so far, but it appears as though Leftwich will have the leg up. This only matters for 2 QB leagues as neither are draftable in 1 QB leagues.
Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This appears to be the closest battle thus far as it's hard to determine if either have the lead. Hill has always looked solid but never spectacular in games while Smith has the higher upside in terms of potential. This one might go down to the 3rd preseason game.
Marc Bulger - Bulger fractured his pinkie and will likely be out for the remainder of the preseason. This doesn't help at all as he's learning a new offense with mostly inexperienced receivers. This further cements avoiding him on draft day.
RB:
Ricky Williams - Williams, despite two very nice runs, looked a bit slow and unexplosive in the preseason. Odds are his 32 year old body is slowing down, and this further proves that Ronnie Brown will move back into a true feature RB role with Williams being a decent backup.
Pats RB Mess - This is yet another mess this season, but I still think that Maroney is the back to own with a low ADP and the highest upside of the NE backfield.
Ray Rice - Rice looked outstanding in his preaseason debut and appears to be the featured RB for the offense this season. He has taken the lead among the 3 headed monster and is the back to own in Baltimore. His ADP has shot up to 70.3, or 6th round/10th pick. He's no longer the great sleeper he was when I wrote my draft guide, but he's an outstanding RB3 in the 6th round.
Steve Slaton / Chris Brown - As expected, Brown entered in the Texans first goal line situation and punched one in from 2 yards out. This hurts Slaton's value as he is no longer the goal line RB, and I would not want to take him as my RB1 in the first round in a non-PPR league.
Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Brown looked awesome in his first preseason game, supporting the hype of this well-rounded RB. It's hard to believe that he'll unseat Addai as the starter given what occurred 3 years ago with Rhodes/Addai, but he's certainly in line for close to half the carries, and he's being drafted at 85.6 on average as opposed to Addai at 44. Addai has the bigger name, but Brown is a far better value.
Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush - No movement here yet, but McFadden looked spry and explosive in his preseason debut, showing that he's over the toe injuries he suffered last year. McFadden is going to start sooner or later, and Bush is well worth investing as a RB5.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw looked phenominal in his preseason debut, and he was a favorite of one of my favorite fantasy writers, Matt Waldman at FFToday, when he was drafted. Waldman is an outstanding rookie scouter, so I take his analysis seriously. With Ward gone, Bradshaw will be more than just Jacobs backup, and with an ADP of 139.5 (sure to rise some after his preseason debut), he's an absolute steal.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is back to practicing, so he looks safe to draft if you're into high risk/high upside 1st round fantasy RBs. I'll pass and opt for super talented backup LeSean McCoy instead at his 104.7 ADP.
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart - Williams looked like his 2008 self in the preseason opener while Stewart was on the sideline with his rumored Achillies-related injury. Stewart is back to not practicing, so Williams is starting to look safer to draft in the first round. Stewart has a history of leg-related injuries (toe in college, various dings last season), and the fact he isn't even practicing is allowing Williams to put some distance in between them. The fact they aren't commenting on this problem is starting to become a legit concern.
Tim Hightower / Chris Wells - Wells reinjured his ankle again at practice, and Hightower is going to start week 1 barring a miracle. Hightower has improved per camp reports, and he's already anchored into a permanent 3rd down role. Hightower is starting to look like the RB to draft here, especially at the much lower ADP of 96.6.
WR:
Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is starting to become a desirable WR3 target the more I think about it. He's the clear-cut top option for the Jets passing game, and while they are most definitely a run-first team, there's no reason he can't post similar numbers to what Derrick Mason did last season in the Ravens offense.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has been missing practices with a supposed hamstring injury, has admitted not knowing the playbook, and is missing practices with a new quarterback. Marshall cannot be drafted as a WR1 right now despite his upside because he's destined for a slow start at this rate. He has the time and the talent to rebound, but his continued rift with the Broncos team is also a concern. He's better as a WR2.
Dwayne Bowe - Much has been made of his demotion to 5 billionth string on the Chiefs depth chart, but Todd Haley simply wants to see a better work ethic from Bowe to match his talent level. He dominated in his first preseason action, and there's no reason to think he won't be starting soon. Cassel's struggles are of a greater concern than Bowe's current depth chart position.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens was just starting to emerge as a sleeper option in fantasy leagues prior to fracturing his foot. He's safely on the don't draft list, but someone to keep in mind as the season gets going.
Devin Hester - Hester dominated targets from Jay Cutler and appears to have the ability to really produce nice numbers as Cutler's top WR target. His upside is limited by his inexperience at the position, but he has the speed for big plays and should be a solid WR3 in non-PPR leagues.
Steve Smith - Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice and missed the first preseason game, but he's back practicing in a limited fashion and will be ready for week 1. He's a solid WR1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, and while he appears on target to start week 1, he'll be playing in a new offense with a new QB. The reasons to avoid drafting him at his late 4th/early 5th round ADP grow.
Donnie Avery - Much like Schilens, and actually a couple days before, Avery fractured his foot. He's transitioning to a new offense and needed the practice time, and he's unlikely to be ready for the first week or two of the regular season, so he's a WR4 at best.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Clark suffered a slight concussion in practice, but has returned. He has a history of concussions, so this bears watching, but he's safe to draft. Just beware of his lengthy injury history and understand that a reliable TE2 is much more necessary with him than the other top 5 TEs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)