Friday, October 3, 2008

Week 5 Injury Updates

I have updated all of the week 5 injuries. Palmer, Rodgers, and Westbrook are all gametime decisions. McGahee might be as well, but there's no point using him even if he does play.

One player I assumed would be OK, but isn't, is Ben Roethlisberger. I did not have him as a part of my week 5 walking wounded segment, but his situation has taken a step back, and he did not fully practice all week. He missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and he was only a limited participant on Friday. If you have another solid option at QB, use him, as Pittsburgh doesn't play until Sunday night. If you are stuck with Big Ben, you either have to have Garrard/Brees/Frerotte on your roster as well, and if you have Brees, you're not worried about Big Ben anyways. Leftwich would start if Big Ben can't go, but given the problems that Pittsburgh has been having protecting a mobile Roethlisberger, the immobile Leftwich, while a strong QB, which be a lame duck in the pocket. If you don't have a choice, you have to grab Leftwich, and you'll probably get a decent game out of him.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

1/4 Season Review: Sell High Candidates

QB:

Kurt Warner - If Warner remains healthy and the Cardinals stay in the NFC West race, he will continue to rack up great stats with the talent he has at the WR position. He needs to avoid turnover-fests like he put up in week 4. Warner is also an injury risk, and if the Cardinals start losing, there's no reason to continue starting a veteran QB. It's not a bad idea to strike while the iron is hot and use him to upgrade another position, especially since he was probably drafted as your QB2. If you can get good QB1 value for him, then do it, because the Cardinals have to keep winning, and Warner has to stay healthy in order for him to maintain his current value.

RB:

Michael Turner - Turner should be a solid RB2 all season long, but his production will directly be tied to the strength of the defense and team he's facing. Since he offers very little in the passing game, and the Falcons possess an explosive passing game option in Jerious Norwood, Turner will find production hard to come by when his team is behind. What's worse is that the stronger defenses will be better equipped to focus on him as the primary offensive threat on this offense, enabling them to shut him down like Tampa Bay and Carolina have. See if you can get RB1 given how gaudy his stats are after two weeks.

Reggie Bush - This is another tough call. The problem is that Bush is still the same, uninspiring runner he's always been, but there's no doubt he's a passing game ace. He'll be plenty involved all season long in the offense, but given his inability to run between the tackles, he's going to have a hard time being consistent. Plus, Deuce is back to take care of the inside running. If someone is willing to pay RB1 value for his name, go for it.

Larry Johnson - Obvious call here. He's racked up a couple big games against horrendous defenses, but much like Turner, he's going to be horribly inconsistent. If you can cash in after his huge week 4 on a believer that he's back to his 2006 level of production, don't think twice about dealing him.

WR:

Terrell Owens - Owens has now had his first argument with Tony Romo, coming after last week's game where Owens was clearly frustrated about what was going on in the offense. Owens might settle down with a big game in week 5, but you always have to wonder with his extended past of turning these things into distractions from his on-field play. If you can deal him for someone like Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, etc, do it and rid yourself of a potential future headache. I would not move him unless you get another top tier WR in return, or if you're very deep at WR and get a huge upgrade somewhere else.

Chad Johnson - This is more selling low, but if Palmer has a season-ending injury, deal him for his name value and get what you can for him. There's no way he'll be a consistent fantasy producer with someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the offense. Do NOT attempt to trade him until you hear about Palmer, because if Palmer's elbow is actually OK, then it's only a matter of time before CJ get's going again, and CJ becomes a buy low target.

Greg Jennings - Jennings has truly surprised me by becoming the go-to guy in the GB offense. However, if anything is wrong with Aaron Rodgers, you need to deal him. Matt Flynn will not continue to lead a proficient passing attack like Rodgers has been doing so far this season.

1/4 Season Review: Buy Low Candidates

The whole buy low, sell high concept complete varies by league, but once 4 weeks are in, the smarter owners are generally less concerned about where they drafted players, and they are more concerned with how the players are actually performing. If an owner is too concerned with where he/she drafted a player, the ability to buy low is pretty much impossible, so understand the owners of your league before attempt to construct a trade with them.

The other thing to consider is how to make an offer for a buy low candidate. Trying to lowball the owner for him is usually insulting, and the offer won't be taken seriously. Some of these are players that would usually be on their owner's "I'm not trading" list, but they could be available for a solid offer. The point isn't to rob the owner, but simply to improve a position on your team by acquiring someone who would demand a king's ransom to acquire if they were playing up to expectations.

Peyton Manning - He seems pretty obvious. The time lost in the offseason due to multiple knee surgeries killed his timing, and he showed obvious rust during his first 3 games. With the bye week to get things straight, I think you see the Peyton Manning you expected in the pre-season starting from week 5. If you could use a hot starter like Kurt Warner in a package to get Manning, do it.

Ben Roethlisberger - I was right in marking him as over-valued heading into the season as he's pretty much been a disaster during the first month, but I believe times are a changing. He has one more potentially tough matchup against Jacksonville (depending on the health of their secondary - Schaub lit up the injured version last week), and then a bye week to rest his hand and shoulder. He's not going to start tossing TDs like crazy like last year, but I believe he can still be a lower QB1 over the rest of the year despite the lesser amount of passing attempts compared to most QBs.

Matt Schaub - Unfortunately the window might have closed after last week's 300 yard, 3 TD performance, but his overall numbers still look pretty sickly. I think he can be a lower QB1 over the rest of the season as Houston will pass plenty, and he has good talent around him at all the skill positions.

RB:

Joseph Addai - Addai was another guy I marked as over-valued (after my primary posting of the draft guide) heading into the season because this is not a guy that can carry the Colts offense if Manning isn't opening lanes for him. Addai suffered from both the rust of Manning and the loss of center Jeff Saturday. I believe he'll come out after the bye week and post better production, although expecting a repeat of the first half of last year would be overly optimistic.

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs had a big first week as he carved up Washington's defense on his 21 carries, but he didn't receive more than 15 carries in the next two games, including a horrible 35 yard effort versus a blah Cincy run defense. The Giants will continue to mix Ward and Bradshaw in, but Jacobs should still be a solid RB2, and his owner might be a bit down on him after the strong first week.

Laurence Maroney - Maroney was drafted in the 1st round last year, and was a bust. Maroney was drafted in the 4th round this year...and he's still been a bust. I'm trying to trade for him in one of my leagues right now. My thought is that NE, coming out of the bye week, will start to focus on the running game. They simply can't run the same spread offense with Cassel as they did with Brady, so they're going to have to run the ball and play defense. Maroney is the 2nd most talented player on offense behind Randy Moss, and they need to get him the ball. He killed it down the stretch last year and throughout the playoffs, so all he needs is the carries. Given Morris sucked in week 3 when he started, I don't see any reason why NE won't start featuring Maroney again.

Willie Parker - Parker tore it up in week 1, posted a solid week 2, and then disappeared with an injury. He'll eventually return from his sprained knee, and he will take over the primary ball carrier position when he does with Mendenhall out for the year. If his owner is depleted at the RB position, and you have RB depth, attempt to get him with an eye on him returning after their bye week.

LenDale White - White has lost his primary RB position to Chris Johnson, but he still remains the goal line runner and the between-the-tackles specialist. Chris Johnson is a very talented rookie, and he has a bright future, but I forsee him hitting the rookie wall at some point, especially since he's not built like a true workhorse. White would unquestionably benefit in that scenario, so he is an interesting guy to stash as a RB3/4 type with an eye towards RB2 value should something happen to Johnson.

WR:

Andre Johnson - AJ posted 112 yards in week 1, but has struggled in back to back games, not going for more than 40 yards in either. He hasn't scored yet, either. That, however, is his own fault as he dropped 2 TDs in week 3. With Schaub righting the ship last week, it's only a matter of time before AJ starts posting the numbers we expected heading into the season.

Santonio Holmes - Holmes has alternated bad and good games so far, so he's been more of a WR3 than the WR2 you drafted him to be. While I feel that he'll be fairly inconsistent because the Steelers just don't throw the ball enough, he's the top WR on this team, and Big Ben's improvement will lead to improvement for Holmes as well.

There really aren't a lot of underperforming WRs. Cincy WRs would be toast if Palmer has a serious elbow injury, so despite their slow starts, I can't recommend acquiring them. Braylon's situation is tied to his QB, and Anderson is lost. Quinn would provide stability for him, but not as many big plays. He might be worth going after, but not at a WR1 price.

TE:

Kellen Winslow - I think he'll come at a discounted rate with the Browns offense looking like a disaster. Quinn would be a big boost to Winslow, who's great in the short-intermediate game. Quinn doesn't have the arm of Anderson to bomb it downfield to Edwards all the time, and his game is well suited to make use of Winslow's talent. Quinn used his TEs in college a decent bit as well. Either Anderson rights the ship, or Quinn takes over...both of which are positives for Winslow.

The TEs are a freakin' mess this season so far, but Winslow is the only one I have confidence in to rebound right now.

Week 5 Waiver Wire Possibilities

QB:

Marc Bulger - Bulger has been re-installed as the Rams QB. I have more confidence in their offense with Linehan leaving and Saunders having full offensive control, so I think Bulger could re-emerge as a decent QB2. If you have crap behind your starter, or you have 2 good QBs and you're thinking about trading one, I'd grab Bulger to see how the offense looks with Linehan gone.

Brady Quinn - Don't give up on Quinn, and make sure to pick him up. Anderson bought himself a little more time with a decent 2nd half that led to a win, but he was brutal in the 1st half, and he really wasn't overly impressive at all in the 2nd half. I still think you see Quinn starting sooner than later.

RB:

Duece McAllister - McAllister racked up 20 carries in week 4, re-emerging in his 2006 role of being the punishing, inside runner that complements Reggie Bush. All reports indicate that he's going to maintain that role for as long as he stays healthy, so he's certainly worth a top waiver wire addition.

Leon Washington - Thomas Jones is struggling out in Jets land, and should the coaching staff feel a need to inject some life into a rather lifeless rushing attack since week 1, Washington would be the guy. He's an interesting speculatory pickup.

Derrick Ward - Brandon Jacobs owners should really have him handcuffed with Ward. Ward was great last season during his starts with Jacobs out, and he appears to be firmly ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw on the depth chart. Other teams with an empty spot could speculate with him as well.

Kenny Watson - Chris Perry owners should do the same with Watson. Watson has been inactive due to nagging injuries, but he is the best bet in the Cincy backfield to take over for Perry once Perry inevitably gets hurt.

WR:

Lance Moore - I'd be careful blowing a top waiver wire pick on Moore unless you need WR help immediately. He'll unquestionably have value as the possession receiver (who did get open down the field as well) who balances out the deep threats that are Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, but Moore should be valuable for as long as Colston is out.

Robert Meachem - He'll get deep, but it seems like those are the only passes he catches. He's obviously a massive PPR risk, but in standard scoring leagues, all that matters are yards and TDs.

Steve Breaston - Boldin owners should pick him up to cover Q if he doesn't play, but I don't see enough value here given Q escaped serious injury for anyone else to waste their time.

TE:

Zach Miller - 2 bad games, 1 great game. He's a decent TE2 whom Russell should continue using as much as he can.

Greg Olsen - He might have been dropped in your league, and he's still interesting TE2 material, but given he's still splitting time and targets with Desmond Clark, you cannot rely on him on a weekly basis.

Raiders Fire Coach Lane Kiffin

The Oakland Raiders have fired head coach Lane Kiffin. Offensive line coach Tom Cable will take over.

What a circus this has been. Al Davis was just waiting for Kiffin to do something so that he could fire him without having to pay him, and apparently Kiffin has been "insubordinate" enough to where Davis finally had enough reason to do it.

Fantasy Impact: Kiffin certainly has the running game working, and Russell looked solid in his last outing. Given Kiffin had a lot of say over the offense, it's probably not good that he left in the middle of the season, but we'll see what happens from here on out. The Raiders are on bye this week, so they'll have 2 weeks to get everything in order for the next game in week 6.

Rams Fire Coach Scott Linehan

The St. Louis Rams have fired coach Scott Linehan. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett will take over.

Let's face it, he's a solid offensive coordinator, but he sucks as a head coach. This team certainly has problems and holes, but they weren't close to playing up to their potential. This has been one of the worst teams in football since the start of 2007.

Fantasy Impact: New head coach Jim Haslett has re-installed Marc Bulger as the starting QB. I have no idea if HC Linehan and OC Al Saunders got along or not, and being that they're both offensive-minded, it's possible they clashed on philosophies. With Saunders fully in charge of the offense now (Haslett is a defensive coach), I expect to see improvement in all areas on offense, although expecting immediate improvement is probably a bit overly optimistic.

Week 5 - Walking Wounded

QB:

Carson Palmer - Palmer's nightmare season continued Sunday, as his elbow swelled up on him and he could not play on Sunday. This could be as simple as a one time occurrence, or as bad as needed season-ending surgery, potentially Tommy John surgery. His status for week 5 is unknown, and now is not a bad time to shop for a potential long-term backup so you don't get screwed into the desperate territory should this injury be severe. *edit* Palmer seems positive and the practice reports have been favorable, but he's still a gametime decision for Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers injured his shoulder after being driven into the turf at the end of scramble. GB is calling it a sprained shoulder, but it appears that he separated it. Positive news is that he returned to the game, but his status for week 5 is completely up in the air. *edit* Rodgers is also a gametime decision, although reports on him have been less favorable than Palmer.

Jon Kitna
- Kitna returned to practice on Monday and is ready to start in week 5.

RB:

Laurence Maroney - Maroney returned to practice on Monday and is likely to start in week 5.

Willis McGahee - McGahee did end up starting last night, but suffered a chest injury that had him in and out of the lineup a couple times. His status is uncertain for week 5. *edit* McGahee might start, but against TEN, there's no way he should be in your lineups.

LeRon McClain - McClain also left last night's game with leg cramps and didn't return for the OT drive, but if they were indeed leg cramps, he might have a shot at starting in week 5. *edit* McClain is fine, and might be the preferred option at the goal line moving foward.

Willie Parker - Parker has already been ruled out for week 5.

Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall broke his shoulder last night, and he was placed on injured reserve. All redraft league owners can drop him.

Darren McFadden - McFadden, for the 2nd straight week, was obviously hobbled by his toe injury. It would be to his benefit if he actually got some rest, and luckily they are on bye in week 5.

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook gave it a go during pre-game warmups, but couldn't move laterally that well. That appears to be good news on the surface, but his status for week 5 is up in the air right now. *edit* Westbrook practiced on Friday, but his status for week 5 is questionable. He is another gametime decision, and luckily this week he's playing early.

Maurice Morris - Morris couldn't practice on Monday, and as of now, it appears unlikely that he'll return this week. Julius Jones will start again, and would be a safer play with Morris out. *edit* Morris is out in week 5.

WR:

Anquan Boldin - Boldin suffered a nasty hit in the endzone in the waning moments of the game last week. He was taken off on a stretcher, but checked out just fine and was released from the hospital in time to make the team flight. I find it hard to believe that he'd be ready to play in week 5, but we don't know anything as of yet. *edit* Boldin underwent sinus fracture surgery, and is out for week 5. He has a decent chance of playing in week 6.

Joey Galloway - Galloway looks likely to sit out again this week with a foot sprain. *edit* Galloway is out in week 5.

Marques Colston - Still out after thumb surgery.

TE:

Jeremy Shockey - Still out after his hernia-ish surgery.