Our draft is complete and here is my final drafted roster:
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Hank Blalock, B.J. Upton
OF - Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jonny Gomes, Chris Young, Jeremy Hermida
SP - Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling, John Patterson, Daniel Cabrera, Mark Prior
RP - Joe Nathan, Takashi Saito, Scot Shields, Scott Linebrink
Overall I'm pretty happy with my choices. I have a lot of bounceback candidates on offense (Kent, Peralta, Blalock), but those are the way to go in the later rounds. I believe all 3 of these guys will outperform their draft position. Peralta has reportedly worked on his range in the offseason and is playing better defense, and whenever that happens for a guy who took criticism on that part of his game, he relaxes at the plate more and usually hits better. Blalock is now healthy, and with a great coach guiding him along, he's still young enough to get back to becoming a great 3B. Upton is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Tampa Bay is playing him all over the diamond with the hopes of using him as their super utility man this season, and his offensive potential is amazing. He has 50 steal speed, plus good pop for a middle infielder. He's only eligible at 3B for right now, but he's been playing 2B, SS, and OF as well this spring. They're moving him around because his defense at SS, his drafted position, was dreadful in the minors as he committed a ton of errors. Moving him around might seem stupid, but they want him to play all over to see where he best fits so they can get his bat into the lineup. If he becomes eligible at all of those positions while playing 5-6 times a week, he'll be very valuable. Kendrick is a young hitter whom I look to take a big step forward this year. I think he's the best 2B value in the draft as he has the offensive ability to settle in right behind Utley as fantasy baseball's best offensive 2B.
My starting pitching is very solid, especially with Cabrera having a lights out spring so far. It seems like the laser eye surgery he had this offseason has improved his command (the goggles he doned last year helped him down the stretch), and he's a great breakout candidate. My bullpen is solid too. I only have 2 closers, but that's OK to start with. I was very displeased that Broxton went too early as I would have really liked to pair him with Saito. As it stands now, I own two of the best middle relievers in the game who will soldify my ratios, give me plenty of Ks, and add a few wins (both had 7 last year). I only drafted two closers last year (Gordon, Ray) and ended up winning the saves catagory as teams that fall out of it look to dump their closers in order to improve their keepers. Plus the waiver wire produces great closers seemingly every year as Jon Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito are examples of.
After waivers cleared (I have #1 waiver priority, and I'm definitely saving that), I decided to help my inexperienced OF depth. I don't want to start Hermida right off the bat, so here's what I did:
Dropped Jonny Gomes, Picked Up Aubrey Huff
Gomes has been dreadful so far this spring, flirting with the .100 mark while hitting both of his HRs in the same game. Given he's battling for playing time, I don't need to be potentially starting someone who's fighting to start and get at bats. Huff should have been drafted, and I'm surprised he wasn't. He had a big year for Tampa Bay in 2003, and followed that up with a very solid 2004. He's struggled the last two seasons, but he'll be hitting 5th behind Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Tejada, so he should have plenty of RBI chances. He's eligible at both OF and 3B, and position eligibility is a nice bonus for offensive players. Their versatility helps fill the gaps when players get a day off.
Dropped Mark Prior, Picked Up Moises Alou
Mark Prior has topped out at 87 MPH on the gun, and will actually be making his next spring training start in the minors while he works out his issues. Given his injury past and his ineffectiveness this spring so far, it's not looking good for him. He's not worth stashing in a mixed league right now. I drafted him late hoping he'd throw well in the spring, but he's been about as bad as possible so far. Alou has remained a very effective hitter despite his age, and he'll be hitting 6th in a loaded Mets lineup. At least one DL stint is guaranteed, but he still has good power and will have lots of RBI chances hitting behind Beltran, Delgado, and Wright. He's hit at least .280 3 years running, so he won't hurt my batting average either.
Let the season begin!
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Baltimore Trades For Willis McGahee
This may be a curious move to some from Buffalo's point of view, but let me explain this from both sides. From Baltimore's side, it was obvious over the past two seasons that Jamal Lewis has lost it. Their defense is ready to win now, as is McNair, so they needed a young, powerful running attack to complete their team and give them a chance to reach the Super Bowl next year. McGahee gives them exactly that, and while he's disappointed the past two seasons, he hasn't lost his talent. He's been mired in a horrible offensive situation the past two seasons, running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football combined with a very erratic, mostly ineffective passing attack. He had a monster senior year at Miami before tearing up his knee, and then he turned in a huge 2004 season after recovering from that knee injury and taking over for Travis Henry. Once Bledsoe left, who helped McGahee out a lot in 2004, Buffalo was without a QB ready to play at the NFL level, and the offense took a sharp decline.
Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.
Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.
Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.
Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.
Free Agency In Full Force, Part 2
Here's the 2nd round of free agency deals:
Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes
I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.
Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.
Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis
Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.
Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.
New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns
This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.
Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.
Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett
Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.
Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.
New England Signs Donte Stallworth
New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.
Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.
Atlanta Signs Joe Horn
This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.
New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.
St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael
Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.
Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes
I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.
Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.
Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis
Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.
Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.
New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns
This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.
Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.
Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett
Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.
Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.
New England Signs Donte Stallworth
New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.
Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.
Atlanta Signs Joe Horn
This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.
New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.
St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael
Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.
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