Jonathan Stewart continues to miss time, and John Fox stated today that it doesn't appear that he's close to making it back onto the field with whatever Achillies problem he's dealing with. That being said, I think DeAngelo Williams is worth taking in the same middle 1st round neighborhood along with Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. He's going to get a good amount of carries in a run-first offense, and he has a beastly line in front of him, although they aren't very deep and cannot afford injuries.
James Davis continues to make noise in Cleveland's camp, and he's someone to take seriously. He's been touted at the most impressive rookie runner this preseason. Jamal Lewis is on his last legs, and at this rate, I expect Davis to overtake Lewis at some point this season. He could be this year's Steve Slaton, and he has emerged as a great RB5 pick to shoot for late in drafts.
I am going through my draft guide and making full updates based on the preseason and recent signings.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Seahawks Sign RB Edgerrin James
The Seattle Seahawks have signed former Colts/Cardinals RB Edgerrin James, in a move sure to shake up the fantasy football world.
Fantasy Impact: Seattle's offense sucks. Their offensive line is already banged up, losing two starters in Walter Jones and Chris Spencer, Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside, and they don't really have an explosive option in the passing game. James has supposedly pushed Duckett off of the roster, so he'll probably get up to speed quickly and rotate with Julius Jones. You could snag him as a RB5 if you feel like it, but there's very little upside here. James has shown he's a pedestrian RB at his age that can't make things happen on his own.
Fantasy Impact: Seattle's offense sucks. Their offensive line is already banged up, losing two starters in Walter Jones and Chris Spencer, Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside, and they don't really have an explosive option in the passing game. James has supposedly pushed Duckett off of the roster, so he'll probably get up to speed quickly and rotate with Julius Jones. You could snag him as a RB5 if you feel like it, but there's very little upside here. James has shown he's a pedestrian RB at his age that can't make things happen on his own.
My First Draft
I just completed my first draft, picking from the 6th spot, in a 12 team league. Here are the results:
1) Steven Jackson
2) Calvin Johnson
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Dwayne Bowe
5) Eddie Royal
6) Ray Rice
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ahmad Bradshaw
9) Jeremy Shockey
10) Josh Morgan
11) Kyle Orton
12) Domenik Hixon
13) New York Jets D/ST
14) Brent Celek
15) Michael Bush
16) John Carney
First 4 Rounds: RB and WR time. I didn't get to finalize my 1st round musings from my last post, but I decided to go with Steven Jackson after talking with another friend of mine. I was actually all set to take Gore, but the guy in front of me surprised everyone by going Slaton. I think that's a huge mistake, but we'll see. Jackson has a much improved line in front of him, and also an improved defense with a great defensive leader in head coach Steve Spagnolo. Calvin Johnson fell a few spots because Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone between my 1st and 2nd round picks. I really wanted Reggie Wayne because he plays with a much better QB than Johnson does, but Johnson's talent is impossible to ignore in the middle of the 2nd round, and I went with him over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings. He's going to see a ton of targets. My one and only true draft decision was Ronnie Brown versus Pierre Thomas, and I regretted my decision later than night. Brown will probably see more touches, but Thomas is a sleeper to lead the NFL in TDs as the clear goal line back for the Saints. Hopefully the discrepency between the two isn't too large. Finally, Dwayne Bowe fell almost a full round past his ADP, and while I wasn't targeting him, he's much like Calvin Johnson as a clear #1 receiver on a shaky team. I considered Braylon Edwards, but Bowe has been motivated after coach Todd Haley demoted him, and he has responded well to the challenge by looking great in the preseason. Edwards continues to drop passes.
2nd 4 Rounds: WR3, QB, and RB depth. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal have been shooting up draft boards, so I was elated to land Royal as my WR3. With Brandon Marshall still screwing around, Royal has become the go-to target for the Broncos passing game. A beat writer used a Steve Smith comparison, but I find that to be a stretch as Royal has never shown the same physicality that Smith has. Ray Rice was a must-have RB3 for me as he was even in on a goal line carry last night, and if he maintains 3 down status as the Ravens RB, he's going to be a steal this season. He's already a great pass catcher, and he was a physical runner in college. I had targeted Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer as QBs I wanted in the 7th. Schaub went in the 6th, but I landed my man Palmer in the 7th. His preseason ankle sprain doesn't scare me, but his offensive line does a bit. Still, this is going to be a pass-heavy offense, and with a rejuvenated Ochocinco and Chris Henry, along with Coles, he's got great weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw was another must-have for me as he's going to be the 2008 Derrick Ward, except more explosive. He's been among the best preseason RBs so far. With that, I was set on RB and didn't have to worry about that position anymore.
3rd 4 Rounds: TE, QB2, and WR depth. There was an inexplicable TE run in the 6th that included Greg Olsen (good), Owen Daniels (a reach), and Chris Cooley (WTF). TE targeting died after that, and I happily grabbed Shockey in the 9th. He's had a full, healthy offseason with the Saints and he's showing it with a strong preseason. He's an excellent value this late. I also landed Josh Morgan, who has shot from late round fodder to semi-middle round target. He's a great talent and someone I think will emerge as an every week starter this season, assuming SF gets decent QB play. I then grabbed Kyle Orton, who got a vote of confidence after his abysmal preseason week 1 showing, and he looked much better in week 2. Don't forget that he's a good fit for this offense, has a great offensive line, and if Marshall comes around, he has great targets to throw to. I then landed Domenik Hixon. It was a tossup for me between him and Steve Smith, so I opted for the higher upside as my 5th wideout.
Last 4 Rounds: Defense, Kicker, TE/RB depth. The home stretch! I went a little above and beyond my normal "defense in the 15th" strategy because I had run out of must-have targets, and I liked the Jets the best at this point. They were vastly improved against the run last season, and with former Ravens defensive boss Rex Ryan now the coach, and the addition of Bart Scott, these guys could be fierce this season. The only problem is they face Houston, Indy, and NE twice, which isn't pretty. Oh well. I landed Brent Celek, who had a coming out party in the playoffs last season and should put up some nice numbers in the Eagles offense this year. I needed someone somewhat capable of starting as it's safe to assume Shockey won't play 16 games. I then landed Michael Bush, who has a good chance of pushing Fargas completely off the roster. He's going to complement McFadden, and the Raiders will probably run a lot. Bush had a monster week 17 at Tampa last year as the primary ball carrier, and I don't think the Raiders kept him to bury him on the depth chart. Lastly, I took John Carney. Another owner erroneously selected Garrett Hartley (thanks, retarded out-of-date FF magazines) 2 rounds before, but Carney will kick the first 4 weeks for the Saints and has a great chance to keep the job all year. I'll happily take the Saints kicker as they are going to score a ton.
Final Thoughts: I thought the draft went great, although I'm a bit worried about how the QB play will affect my top two WRs in Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Considering the guy I preferred (Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco) was taken right before me in the rounds I selected them, I didn't have much of a choice. I'm also worried I messed up by taking Ronnie Brown over Pierre Thomas...I just like Ronnie Brown too much and I think I let it affect my decision. It's not that Thomas is a better RB than Brown, but he's certainly on a better offense. We'll see how much that matters this season. Other than that, I had my targets mapped out well on my spreadsheet in regards to which rounds they went in, so I stuck to my research. Outside of my top 2 WRs, all the other guys were clearly on my targets list, so I'm very happy with how things turned out. Week 1 can't get here fast enough!
1) Steven Jackson
2) Calvin Johnson
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Dwayne Bowe
5) Eddie Royal
6) Ray Rice
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ahmad Bradshaw
9) Jeremy Shockey
10) Josh Morgan
11) Kyle Orton
12) Domenik Hixon
13) New York Jets D/ST
14) Brent Celek
15) Michael Bush
16) John Carney
First 4 Rounds: RB and WR time. I didn't get to finalize my 1st round musings from my last post, but I decided to go with Steven Jackson after talking with another friend of mine. I was actually all set to take Gore, but the guy in front of me surprised everyone by going Slaton. I think that's a huge mistake, but we'll see. Jackson has a much improved line in front of him, and also an improved defense with a great defensive leader in head coach Steve Spagnolo. Calvin Johnson fell a few spots because Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone between my 1st and 2nd round picks. I really wanted Reggie Wayne because he plays with a much better QB than Johnson does, but Johnson's talent is impossible to ignore in the middle of the 2nd round, and I went with him over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings. He's going to see a ton of targets. My one and only true draft decision was Ronnie Brown versus Pierre Thomas, and I regretted my decision later than night. Brown will probably see more touches, but Thomas is a sleeper to lead the NFL in TDs as the clear goal line back for the Saints. Hopefully the discrepency between the two isn't too large. Finally, Dwayne Bowe fell almost a full round past his ADP, and while I wasn't targeting him, he's much like Calvin Johnson as a clear #1 receiver on a shaky team. I considered Braylon Edwards, but Bowe has been motivated after coach Todd Haley demoted him, and he has responded well to the challenge by looking great in the preseason. Edwards continues to drop passes.
2nd 4 Rounds: WR3, QB, and RB depth. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal have been shooting up draft boards, so I was elated to land Royal as my WR3. With Brandon Marshall still screwing around, Royal has become the go-to target for the Broncos passing game. A beat writer used a Steve Smith comparison, but I find that to be a stretch as Royal has never shown the same physicality that Smith has. Ray Rice was a must-have RB3 for me as he was even in on a goal line carry last night, and if he maintains 3 down status as the Ravens RB, he's going to be a steal this season. He's already a great pass catcher, and he was a physical runner in college. I had targeted Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer as QBs I wanted in the 7th. Schaub went in the 6th, but I landed my man Palmer in the 7th. His preseason ankle sprain doesn't scare me, but his offensive line does a bit. Still, this is going to be a pass-heavy offense, and with a rejuvenated Ochocinco and Chris Henry, along with Coles, he's got great weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw was another must-have for me as he's going to be the 2008 Derrick Ward, except more explosive. He's been among the best preseason RBs so far. With that, I was set on RB and didn't have to worry about that position anymore.
3rd 4 Rounds: TE, QB2, and WR depth. There was an inexplicable TE run in the 6th that included Greg Olsen (good), Owen Daniels (a reach), and Chris Cooley (WTF). TE targeting died after that, and I happily grabbed Shockey in the 9th. He's had a full, healthy offseason with the Saints and he's showing it with a strong preseason. He's an excellent value this late. I also landed Josh Morgan, who has shot from late round fodder to semi-middle round target. He's a great talent and someone I think will emerge as an every week starter this season, assuming SF gets decent QB play. I then grabbed Kyle Orton, who got a vote of confidence after his abysmal preseason week 1 showing, and he looked much better in week 2. Don't forget that he's a good fit for this offense, has a great offensive line, and if Marshall comes around, he has great targets to throw to. I then landed Domenik Hixon. It was a tossup for me between him and Steve Smith, so I opted for the higher upside as my 5th wideout.
Last 4 Rounds: Defense, Kicker, TE/RB depth. The home stretch! I went a little above and beyond my normal "defense in the 15th" strategy because I had run out of must-have targets, and I liked the Jets the best at this point. They were vastly improved against the run last season, and with former Ravens defensive boss Rex Ryan now the coach, and the addition of Bart Scott, these guys could be fierce this season. The only problem is they face Houston, Indy, and NE twice, which isn't pretty. Oh well. I landed Brent Celek, who had a coming out party in the playoffs last season and should put up some nice numbers in the Eagles offense this year. I needed someone somewhat capable of starting as it's safe to assume Shockey won't play 16 games. I then landed Michael Bush, who has a good chance of pushing Fargas completely off the roster. He's going to complement McFadden, and the Raiders will probably run a lot. Bush had a monster week 17 at Tampa last year as the primary ball carrier, and I don't think the Raiders kept him to bury him on the depth chart. Lastly, I took John Carney. Another owner erroneously selected Garrett Hartley (thanks, retarded out-of-date FF magazines) 2 rounds before, but Carney will kick the first 4 weeks for the Saints and has a great chance to keep the job all year. I'll happily take the Saints kicker as they are going to score a ton.
Final Thoughts: I thought the draft went great, although I'm a bit worried about how the QB play will affect my top two WRs in Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Considering the guy I preferred (Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco) was taken right before me in the rounds I selected them, I didn't have much of a choice. I'm also worried I messed up by taking Ronnie Brown over Pierre Thomas...I just like Ronnie Brown too much and I think I let it affect my decision. It's not that Thomas is a better RB than Brown, but he's certainly on a better offense. We'll see how much that matters this season. Other than that, I had my targets mapped out well on my spreadsheet in regards to which rounds they went in, so I stuck to my research. Outside of my top 2 WRs, all the other guys were clearly on my targets list, so I'm very happy with how things turned out. Week 1 can't get here fast enough!
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