Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Week 5 Injury/Depth Chart Report

Arizona Cardinals - I'm sure the bye week was just what Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin needed.  Warner should hopefully be moving around a little bit better and be more willing to go down the field, and a match up against the horrid Texans secondary is exactly what he'll need.  Same goes for Boldin, although he looked on track in week 3.  Hightower will continue to get more touches than Beanie Wells thanks to the pass-first philosophy of the offense, but I expect Wells to get more than the 2 carries he got in week 3.  Hightower is a reasonable bye week replacement.

Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan had a week off to help him rebound from a rough week 3, and hopefully this time was spent re-kindling his chemistry with Roddy White, who is off to a slow start.  My guess is that after 3 weeks of mediocre production and a bye week, this is the perfect time to go after him as a buy low.  Gonzalez will eat into his production a bit, but the Falcons are passing more this year.

Baltimore Ravens - Flacco is emerging as a QB1 option with Baltimore's willingness to open up the playbook for him this year.  You know the deal here with the backfield...Rice is a RB2 as the guy who gets more total touches, but McGahee is a solid bye week fill-in as he splits carries and gets the goal line work.

Buffalo Bills - Lynch and Jackson will continue to share touches moving forward, and neither is more than a RB3 at this point.  Jackson didn't dominate passing down work as I expected previously, so this is a true split right now.  I have a hunch that Lynch might be the preferred goal line option, but this is only my personal opinion.

Carolina Panthers - Hopefully the bye week fixed Carolina's offensive philosophy and they'll focus on what they do best...pound the rock and use play action to get it to Steve Smith down the field.  Williams and Stewart will continue to annoy fantasy owners by splitting carries with a slight edge to Williams.

Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer continues to disappoint with his yardage, but at least he's producing TDs enough to keep him as a QB1.  Ochocinco continues to be the only WR worth starting with some sort of rotation opposite him.

Chicago Bears - Bye week.

Cleveland Browns - Goodbye Edwards, hello...Mohamed Massaquoi?  He's the new #1 WR for this squad, and expect Mike Furrey, Brian Robieski, and Josh Cribbs to split time opposite him until new acquisition Chansi Stuckey is ready to start.  Jamal Lewis might start losing more time to Jerome Harrison when he returns from injury, whenever that might be.  Harrison is the better RB at this stage in their careers.

Dallas Cowboys - Romo's latest hospital ball has cost Roy Williams some cartilage in his ribs, and while he's vowing to play this week, there's no way you can start him as less than 100%.  If Williams is out, Patrick Crayton could be a sneaky WR3 play.  Barber should start again in week 5, but expect Tashard Choice to play a committee role as Barber isn't 100% yet.  Felix Jones is out for another week.

Denver Broncos- Brandon Marshall is anchored back in as the top option of the passing game, and the rest of the receivers (Royal, Stokley, Gaffney) appear to be in an unproductive rotation of some sort.  Buckhalter is rumored to have a high ankle sprain, so Moreno is an excellent RB2 while he's out as his touches will see an increase.

Detroit Lions - Stafford has unfortunately suffered a knee injury, and there's no reason for Detroit to rush him back out there.  They are fully aware that they aren't competing for a playoff spot.  Expect Daunte Culpepper to start for a couple weeks while Stafford gets back to full health.  This probably isn't good for Calvin Johnson, but we'll see how it plays out.

Green Bay Packers - Bye week.

Houston Texans - Slaton returned to a full workload in week 4, but his YPC remains a major concern.  It was 4.8 last year, and it's plummeted to 3.3 this year.  The Texans just don't have much else to turn to, so they'll stick it out with him for now.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzalez will remain out through the Colts' bye week in week 6, and then he's expected to return.  Garcon will man the outside and be a WR3 while he's out, and Austin Collie is worth a look as a bye week fill-in for week 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Mike Sims-Walker has turned into fantasy gold!  I will repeat that selling high is a good option given his history of knee problems, but I would only give him up to fill a major hole, or if you can get a WR you know is better in return.

Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe played all of week 4, but he was not 100% and was clearly limited by his injury.  Unless he puts in a full practice this week, I would probably bench him if you have a solid alternative.

Miami Dolphins - Ted Ginn has regressed into a WR rotation, and he's not to be anywhere near lineups until he earned full starter snaps.

Minnesota Vikings - Adrian Peterson appeared to hurt himself while having the ball stolen from him by Clay Matthews.  He put up horrible YPC numbers that game, but that appeared to be more to the credit of the Packers' defense as opposed to him being limited.  Keep an eye on him, but there's no indication yet that this is a problem.

New England Patriots - Wes Welker appears to be back, so he's safe to start again.  Even with Fred Taylor now out indefinitely due to ankle surgery, the RB situation is a frustrating 3 man committee.  However, Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney are both worth picking up to see if one of the two emerges.

New Orleans Saints - Bye week.

New York Giants - Eli Manning suffered a plantar fascitis injury in week 4, but he appears willing to start in week 5.  He was told that he can't re-injure it, but it's a painful injury.  Oakland is actually solid against the pass while bad against the run, so I would avoid using Eli this week unless you have to.  Ahmad Bradshaw is still dealing with an ankle injury that will limit him some in practice this week, but he is expected to be fine for week 5.  He's a solid bye week fill-in against a horrible Oakland run defense.

New York Jets - They traded for Braylon Edwards, and he's fully expected to start and play the majority of snaps on Monday Night.  My biggest question was how the two offensive schemes compared between the Browns and Jets, and apparently they have a lot of similarities.  This makes Edwards usable as a WR3.  He's a risky start, but there's no question the Jets will draw up some plays to get him the ball this week.  Leon Washington had a down week, but he's going to get the ball plenty in week 5.

Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden suffered a torn meniscus and will miss 2-4 weeks.  This should be time for Michael Bush to shine, but who knows how Oakland will force Justin Fargas into the mix.  The problem is they face the Giants, so I wouldn't mess with Bush unless totally desperate.

Philadelphia Eagles - The bye week has done both McNabb and Westbrook good as they will start in week 5.  McNabb still isn't 100%, so he could see scaled back passing attempts against the horrid Tampa Bay rush defense, but his match up is solid, and he is a lower end QB1.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Rashard Mendenhall.  He'll start again in week 5 and makes for an outstanding play against the Lions.  Let's hope he finally gets it and turns in another great performance.

San Diego Chargers - Bye week.

San Francisco 49ers - Glen Coffee will start again, and he has a solid match up against Atlanta.  He's a solid RB2 this week as the 49ers will continue to rely on the run.

Seattle Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck might return this week, but he's in no way a fantasy option with the putrid offensive line that would attempt to protect him.  Housh is a decent WR3, but that's about it for this offense.

St. Louis Rams - Marc Bulger is probably going to be held out again, so Kyle Boller will get another chance to start.  After the mirage that was Boller's clean up performance in week 3, it seems as though Bulger is probably the best option here, but maybe Boller can do something this week for Steven Jackson's sake.  Donnie Avery will continue to be the "#1" WR and is worth stashing as a WR5, but I would bench him until he shows something.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Johnson will continue to start, but he had a less than stellar passing day in week 4.  Antonio Bryant has returned and looks close to 100%, but his upside is severely limited by Johnson behind center.  He's a WR3 in the right match up.

Tennessee Titans - Kenny Britt is pushing Justin Gage to start opposite Nate Washington, so keep an eye on their production.  Britt is worth stashing as a WR5 to see how this plays out as TEN will have to pass more this season thanks to their defensive woes.

Washington Redskins - Clinton Portis is back to the full time starter despite his injury woes, and he's a reasonable RB2 in a favorable match up against Carolina.

WR Braylon Edwards Traded To New York Jets

The Cleveland Browns have traded WR Braylon Edwards to the New York Jets for WR Chansi Stuckey, LB Jason Trusnik, a 2010 3rd round pick, and a 2010 5th round pick.

This is a win for both sides.  The Jets add a WR opposite Jerricho Cotchery who has the pure talent to be the best WR on the team, so it's a huge win for Mark Sanchez and the passing game.  Whether or not they can get him to concentrate and not drop passes all the time is another story.  The Browns get something for an unhappy player they probably weren't going to keep after the season was over, especially considering his clashes with head coach Eric Mangini, his bar fight, and then his public spat with Cleveland icon Lebron James.  They add a solid possession WR, a LB I've never heard of, and two fairly valuable draft picks.

Fantasy Impact: Braylon Edwards' value takes a small short term hit as he'll need some time to pick up the offense, but it's not like he was producing anything in Cleveland prior to the trade.  I definitely like him in the 2nd half better with the Jets than I did with Cleveland, so his 2009 fantasy value gets a slight boost, and his future value gets a big boost.  This also helps Mark Sanchez quite a bit moving forward with a bigger play maker than Cotchery was.  Cotchery's value unfortunately takes a hit as he'll eventually be sharing more targets with Edwards than he did anyone else on his team prior to the trade.  Both guys should be WR2/3 options moving foward, but it's no slam dunk that Edwards will be a big part of the offense this week.  I'll touch on that in my depth chart/injury report.  Massaquoi's value is uncertain...he's a better pick up now as he's the #1 WR in Cleveland, but he did his week 4 damage with Edwards drawing constant double teams.  That will be a situation to monitor before plugging him into your lineup, but he'll receive more targets as their top WR now.

Week 5 Waiver Wire

I sincerely apologize to the 5 of you that read my blog that I didn't get to my waiver wire article in time this week.  I had sat down to do it, got distracted, and then went to softball and didn't have time to write it when I got back.  Still, I'll run down who should be picked up.  I continue to not repeat guys from previous articles unless they've gone from stashable to must-have.

QB:

Derek Anderson - He went from intriguing QB2 to blah QB2 with the Braylon Edwards trade.  He has no proven WR to throw the ball to, and the options left lack for talent.  Massaquoi could be decent, and Chansi Stuckey's addition gives them a solid possession guy, but Anderson ultimately makes a lot of bad throws and doesn't have a playmaker to overcome that.  If you're desperate for QB depth he should be decent, but that's about it.

RB:

Rashard Mendenhall - You league has too many people that don't pay attention if he was still available, but he was obviously the top add of the week.

Jerome Harrison - With Jamal Lewis fading away and James Davis headed to IR, Harrison is the lead back while Lewis is injured.  If Lewis is out again, Harrison is definitely RB2 material as they don't have anyone else that can help carry the ball.  He's explosive and posted a solid game in week 4.  He's worth a waiver add.

Michael Bush - Some may have dropped him when he disappeared after week 1, but with McFadden's knee injury, Bush has a chance to shine as long as the Raiders don't do something stupid and give Fargas a bunch of carries...which means Fargas will get a bunch of carries.  Still, he's well worth adding.

WR:

Mohamed Massaquoi - Massaquoi exploded in week 1, and with Braylon Edwards gone, he'll be the top WR on the team.  He's their best down field threat and playmaker.  He's definitely worth adding, but I'd like to see another game with him, especially without Edwards commanding double teams, to see if he's a WR3.  Those in a bye week pinch can give him a shot as he'll presumably get plenty of targets.

Kenny Britt - Britt had been quiet after a great week 1, but he exploded again in week 4.  He's a great WR5 stash as a legit talent, but I wouldn't start him unless he takes Justin Gage's job.  There aren't enough targets to go around for 3 WRs on Tennessee.

Austin Collie - Another WR5 stash.  With Indy's passing game on fire, and a match up against the decimated TEN secondary up next, Collie is a reasonable bye week fill-in this week.  Just keep your expectations tempered a bit as he's the #4 target behind Wayne/Clark/Garcon, and that he'll likely become worthless once Anthony Gonzalez returns.

TE:

Jermichael Finley - Finley busted out with a monster week 4, and it's clear that Rodgers likes throwing to him when he's on the field.  He's not starting yet with Donald Lee still a superior blocker, so his upside is limited, but he'll post a few big games this week.  He's a solid TE2 for bye week purposes.

Heath Miller - Miller, as I've stated before in my writing, is a very good pass catcher who has been under-utilized in Pittsburgh's run-first offense, especially since Miller is such an accomplished blocker.  He's one of the most unheralded all-around TEs in the game.  Pittsburgh is throwing more this year thanks to their lack of a rushing attack, and Miller exploded in week 4 as a result.  Mendenhall could get their rushing attack back on track, so Miller is more of a TE2 for now, but he's definitely worth owning.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Week 4 Thoughts

Arizona Cardinals - Bye week.

Atlanta Falcons - Roddy White is an awesome buy low.  Try to get him.

Baltimore Ravens - Flacco continues to amaze.  He's turned into one of the best QB2s around.  Ray Rice continues to produce at an impressive clip despite receiving limited carries and no goal line chances.  Despite 19 carries in week 1 and no more than 11 carries the next 3 weeks, he has scored no less than 8.2 points during the first month of the season.  Rice is a legit RB2 thanks to his pass catching supplementing his limited carries.

Buffalo Bills - Edwards and the Bills offensive line are killing both Owens and Evans.  He simply doesn't have enough time to set up to throw down the field.  Both have regressed to WR4 material for the time being.  Marshawn Lynch returned, and sure enough, this was about an even timeshare, even though Fred Jackson predictably outproduced him.  The annoying part of this was the fact that Jackson even lost passing down work to Lynch.  Neither guy is worth using as more than a RB3 until this situation becomes clearer.

Carolina Panthers - Bye week.

Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer was disappointing against a questionable Cleveland secondary, but led another late TD drive and ended up with solid fantasy numbers.  It hasn't been pretty so far, but in the end, the numbers have been there for him except for week 1.  I expect continued improvement.

Chicago Bears - Cutler continues a torrid fantasy pace after bombing in week 1.  Those who stepped away from the ledge after one game are being rewarded as he has settled in very nicely.  Forte showed some signs of life, but it was against one of the worst run Ds in the NFL, and it was mostly on 2 big runs.  The Bears have clearly adjusted their game plan to pass more, and Forte doesn't appear to be the preferred option near the goal line any more either.  I think he'll improve, but I don't think he has the upside many of us thought when the season began.

Cleveland Browns - Derek Anderson replaced Brady Quinn as the starter, and that wasn't good news for Braylon Edwards.  At least Edwards caught a few passes with Quinn behind center.  The good news for Edwards is that rookie Mohammad Massaquoi had a huge game, and if he can step up opposite Edwards, it will eliminate the relentless double teaming Edwards is seeing right now.  Things will get better for Edwards...for all of Anderson's faults, he is willing to go down the field, as to where Quinn won't.  Hang in there.

Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo just doesn't have it right now.  Without a WR to make plays for him like Owens did, he's stuck with mediocre options who don't consistently get open.  He's also making horrible decisions and is showing inaccuracy.  He's a QB2 until he proves otherwise.  Barber looked pretty good, but his quad tightened up on him, and it kept him off the field in the 2nd half.  Since Choice was playing so well, the Cowboys probably played it safe.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton has looked every bit the part of a QB2 thus far.  He continues to post solid weeks despite not really making big plays down the field.  Brandon Marshall is officially back and a great WR2 moving forward.  Eddie Royal has officially disappeared and shouldn't see your starting lineup.  I wouldn't drop him though.  Keep an eye on Buckhalter's injury as that would help Moreno's already RB2 value moving forward.

Detroit Lions - Stafford looked good again while getting the ball down the field, but he's still struggling with his accuracy.  CJ would have turned in an even bigger day had Stafford not misfired on 2 different passes where he was open in the end zone.  Still, it's a great sign for CJ moving forward.  Kevin Smith was absolutely gobbled up by the Bears D, but he scored twice and he's the lone wolf of the backfield...a rarity these days.

Green Bay Packers - Rodgers certainly didn't disappoint with a monster statistical game, but imagine what he could have accomplished with some protection?  He performed great despite the circumstances.  He can say it was just another game all he wanted...but you know he badly wanted to post huge numbers and a win.  Ryan Grant was productive with his touches, but the nature of the game didn't allow him many.  It was disappointing that Jennings didn't have a big game despite Rodgers' final numbers, but stay patient with him.  The Packers lack of trust in him at the goal line showed.  He was stuffed once, and then the Packers tried to throw it a couple times.  That says a lot about their confidence in his goal line running.

Houston Texans - Schaub struggled a bit, but Oakland's secondary actually isn't that bad.  No worries there.  Slaton finally turned in a good game with a couple scores, but his YPC sucked even with the big run.  The good news was that Chris Brown was barely on the field, but Slaton needs to be more productive with is touches.

Indianapolis Colts - This offense is on fire right now, and with TEN's decimated secondary next on the schedule, continued good times are ahead.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Apparently a struggling QB's remedy is to face the above mentioned TEN secondary as Garrard absolutely torched them.  Mike Sims-Walker turned in another monster game, and it might be time to shop him around.  He should remain productive as the top option for the Jaguars, while healthy, but I simply can't get past his long history of knee problems.

Kansas City Chiefs - This offense is such an absolute mess, there's little to say.  Bowe didn't look 100%, and until he proves he's 100%, I wouldn't start him.  Us owners lucked out with a TD in his first two games, but his yardage has been awful even when healthy.

Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins had a perfect first match up with Chad Henne behind center as they were able to use the ground game to punish Buffalo, and they didn't have to ask Henne to do much.  Ronnie Brown looks awesome, and Ricky Williams is doing a very good job behind him.  The problem is that this passing game will allow stronger run defenses, like the upcoming match up with MIN, to focus on shutting down the rushing attack.  Temper expectations against said defenses, but you can't sit Brown.

Minnesota Vikings - For those who started Brett Favre expecting an inspired performance, you certainly were rewarded.  The playbook is starting to open up for him, and while this remains a run-first team, Favre is starting to take more shots down the field.  Given the respect the defenses have for Peterson, Favre will have some games like this.  Berrian and Rice both scored.  I view Berrian as a WR3, and Rice is emerging a solid bye week replacement.  He's limiting Harvin to a slot WR role for now.  Peterson was swallowed up by a vicious Packers run defenses, but he scored to post a decent game.

New England Patriots - Brady looks more like pre-2007 self than anything else at this point.  He's a QB1, but he's not the explosive option people were expecting, especially after his excellent preseason.  As I warned, Taylor's usage went back down the toilet again this week.  He'll probably be worth a shot as a RB3 in the right match up, but he's nothing more than that.

New Orleans Saints - Now might be a great time to shoot an offer for Brees.  You'll still have to pay full price, but you might find an owner willing to listen to deals for him after 2 straight zero TD performances instead of laughing at you.  Still, the smart owners will laugh at you.  Pierre Thomas looked great once more and is arguably a RB1 moving forward.  His skills are legit and he's playing for a great offense.

New York Giants - The Giants keep rollin, rollin, rollin.  Eli loves Steve Smith, and his young WRs are certainly stepping up to the plate and making plays.  Manningham has kinda fallen off, and he's picked a bad time to do with Hakeem Nicks battling for playing time now.  Expect some snap splitting between these two for now.  Unfortunately for the rushing attack, the passing attack has stolen both some thunder and scoring opportunities.  Jacobs should still see an uptick in scoring with the passing attack humming, so I wouldn't worry yet.  All in all, hopefully Eli's injury isn't too bad.

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez turned into a toad this weekend, bombing in horrible fashion.  He is just a normal rookie, after all.  Not to fear, though, as I expect him to bounce back.  He's still a decent QB2.  This was a forgettable game on all fronts, but it was nice to see Cotchery post solid yardage despite the situation.  He's been an excellent value so far.

Oakland Raiders - Barf sandwich.  Much like KC, there's just nothing much to say here.  To further the negative, Fargas came into the game and led the team in carries with 10.  McFadden was worthless, but it's annoying that Michael Bush wasn't used more.  There zero upside in giving Fargas any carries unless an injury necessitates it.

Philadelphia Eagles - Bye week.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Big Ben looked good, and Hines Ward continues to be the most reliable Steelers WR.  Holmes drops too many passes and just doesn't possess the skills to go over the middle like Ward continues to do.  The biggest news here, obviously, is the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall.  He fully took advantage of the chance to shine, running hard and finishing his runs with authority.  I'd like to see him prove it again, but he's going to have the opportunity to become the lead back here.  I said Moore was a sleeper, and he posted an amusing pair of TDs on a reception and a HB toss.   :)  Moving forward, obviously, he's just a 3rd down back unless injuries befall the backfield again.

San Diego Chargers - This isn't your normal Chargers team.  They tried to run their normal offense, but it just didn't work.  Once they spread the field and started passing, granted it was against more of a prevent defense, they moved the ball at will.  LT looked slow and unexplosive again, and they didn't give Sproles the chance to run much.  Rivers preferred Gates in this one as he dominated the middle of the field and found holes where blitzing LBs once were.  This will continue to be a pass-first offense, and Rivers, Jackson, and Gates are all top tier options at their respective positions.

San Francisco 49ers - Shaun Hill was slow and steady in this one, and if Morgan had better hands, he would have had an additional TD.  Vernon Davis continues to break out and has earned the right to start every week.  Glen Coffee struggled again in terms of what he did with this touches, but luckily the high amount of carries and solid passing game work allowed him to post a solid fantasy day.  Ultimately the defense dominated this one with 3 scores.

Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks offense predictably fell on it's face against a tough secondary.  Given this team is not built to run the ball, they stood no chance, especially with their decimated offensive line.  Seneca Wallace actually posted a solid fantasy line for a QB2, but that was about the only positive that came out of this.

St. Louis Rams - Disaster.  Boller proved that last week was another fluky performance in his mostly mediocre career.  Props to the heart-filled effort Steven Jackson puts on the field each and every week...he's doing everything he can.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Johnson looked reasonable in his debut, although he didn't challenge down the field at all.  He put his athleticism on display with 7 carries for 41 yards, and he'll continue to post Tavaris Jackson type numbers with low passing yardage, an occasional TD, and solid rushing yardage.  He could be a QB2 consideration in the right match up thanks to his rushing ability.

Tennessee Titans - It's safe to wonder how long the Titans will continue to start Kerry Collins.  He's making more mistakes this year, and he's not making up for it with big plays.  Given the state of their defense, they need him to make more plays, and he's just not that type of QB anymore.  Kenny Britt posted a huge week, and if he continues to post good numbers, he might actually overtake Gage as opposed to Washington.  This is worth monitoring.  Chris Johnson posted a solid yardage game in spite of the massacre, which is good news.

Washington Redskins - Campbell turned in a solid outing, but Washington ultimately relied upon Clinton Portis in this one, who carried 25 times despite injury, and almost got his 100 yards.  Unfortunately for his owners, the only TD came on a bomb to Santana Moss, who only mustered 2 catches, but he made them count.  He's posted back to back numbers in good match ups...just what his owners like to see.