Saturday, September 8, 2007

L.J. Smith Downgraded To Questionable

The Philadelphia Eagles downgraded TE L.J. Smith to questionable as he recovers from his hernia surgery.

Fantasy Impact: Mid-week downgrades are usually a very bad sign. I would not start him tomorrow. If he's the only TE on your roster, look to sleeper candidates Bo Scaife from Tennessee or David Martin from Miami for a possible replacement.

Greg Jennings Game-Time Decision

Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings looks to be a game-time decision with the hamstring he hurt on Wednesday.

Fantasy Impact: Green Bay plays at 12 PM CST, so you'll have time to see if he's in the lineup if you plan on starting him. Be prepared with a backup plan in case he doesn't go. James Jones would start in his place.

D.J. Hackett and Nate Burleson To Split Snaps

The Seattle Seahawks have announced their intention to split snaps between WRs D.J. Hackett and Nate Burleson. Hackett is the better all-around receiver who runs solid routes and has good hands, but Burleson possesses more speed. This comes as a bit of a surprise as Hackett has proven himself at the professional level far more than Burleson, and Burleson seems much better suited for the slot. Unfortunately Bobby Engram is a very solid slot WR in his own right, so there's no room for Burleson there.

Fantasy Impact: This makes Hackett a risky WR3 play in fantasy leagues. Nobody doubts his ability to produce in what projects to be a good Seattle offense, but if he's sharing time, that ability will be limited. He has a good matchup against Tampa Bay, but he comes with risk based on how much time he'll spend on the field.

Terry Glenn To Undergo Knee Surgery

Dallas Cowboys WR Terry Glenn is going to undergo knee surgery, but which knee surgery he will choose isn't known. If Glenn chooses arthroscopic knee surgery, he might return to the field in a few weeks, but that surgery is not guaranteed to fix his knee problems. If Glenn chooses microfracture surgery, it will fix the problem, but given his age, it's doubtful he'd ever play again. He's reportedly leaning towards arthroscopic surgery right now, but no final decision has been made.

Fantasy Impact: Terry Glenn is out indefinitely as it stands right now, so prepare to be without him for the season since that remains a strong possibility. It definitely hurts those who drafted him as he was likely drafted as a WR3, or a WR4 at worst.

Pick up Patrick Crayton in all leagues. He will line up as the starter across from Terrell Owens, and Romo utilitzed him well in the slot last year as Crayton put up 516 yards and 4 TDs. They already have a solid chemistry. With Owens attracting much of the secondary's attention, Crayton should be able to work underneath and put up some very nice WR3 numbers while Glenn is out, which could be the rest of the season. He doesn't possess the speed that Glenn has, but he has outstanding hands and knows how to get open.

Friday, September 7, 2007

Colts/Saints Recap

Drew Brees - 28/41, 192 YDS, 1/4, 0 TD, 2 INT, 1 FL. The Colts put pressure on him quite often last night, and then towards the end of the game, Brees made a couple throws that hail from the WTF catagory. There are some doubters out there regarding how good the Saints offense will be now that the league has gotten a whole year's look at them, but obviously 1 game doesn't prove anything. He's definitely put his owners in a hole in week 1, but he will bounce back from this ugly outing.

Deuce McAllister - 10/38, 2/7. If the Saints D is going to play like that all year, they'll be best served using McAllister far more often to establish an inside running attack and control the clock a bit. McAllister is going to be very inconsistent this year, which is exactly why he's best suited as an RB3/Flex fantasy player this year. He will have games where he approaches 20 carries and scores at least once, and then he'll have games where he's not on the field as often as Bush due to the passing game. If you play in a standard 2 RB league, odds are you weren't starting him last night anyways.

Reggie Bush - 12/38, 4/7. I know this is an RBBC, but given how often Bush was on the field in passing situations, especially during garbage time, it's ridiculous that this is all he could produce. He still dances too much in the backfield instead of taking what the defense gives him. It will get better, but one has to wonder why exactly he was going 3-4 rounds ahead of McAllister.

Marques Colston - 6/47. So goes Brees, so goes Colston. The pressure of the front line and solid job of the secondary completely limited what the Saints were able to accomplish, and Colston never got open downfield. He figured to be a bit overvalued this season as owners expected him to become an elite WR1, but expecting WR2 numbers is probably more reasonable.

Devery Henderson - 3/34. Henderson will make some big downfield plays this year, but he figures to be an inconsistent WR3. It's much better to use him during quality matchups rather than relying on him to be an every week starter. As I said before, the Colts didn't let them get deep, and Henderson isn't a very well-rounded receiver.

Eric Johnson - 8/57. Johnson figures to be a quality TE2 this year until he gets hurt. He racked up about half of his yards during garbage time, but he looks to be a nice checkdown receiver for Brees. He's always been talented in the passing game, but has never stayed healthy long enough to fully show it. Expect him to be a good bye-week fill-in, or a borderline starter in PPR leagues.

Peyton Manning - 28/41, 288, 3 TD. Vintage Manning. He started off slow in the first half, but he made his usual 2nd half adjustments and came out blazing in the 2nd half, torching former teammate Jason David for all 3 of his TDs, all of which were 25+ yards. He's given his owners a very nice start to week 1.

Joseph Addai - 23/118, 3/25, 1 TD. Addai came exactly as advertised last night, carrying the load, putting up a great yardage total, and punching one in from 2 yards out. Owners endured a brief scare when he came out with a slight ab injury on the first play, but he returned the next series and started racking up the yardage. As long as Addai can handle the full load, he's going to be very consistent thanks to the explosive Colts offense giving him plenty of room to run and numerous scoring opportunities. He looks much improved in short yardage situations, boding well for his goal line carries this year. Manning ran a playaction pass on 1st and goal, but had to throw the ball out of the endzone, and then gave it to Addai on the next play. This figures to be a frustrating theme all season long for Addai owners, but he's a lock for 10+ TDs. I don't think you'll be able to differentiate Edge's numbers from his last few Colts seasons and Addai's this season.

Marvin Harrison - 4/83, 1 TD. Harrison made an excellent TD catch, dragging his feet in bounds along the back of the endzone on a deep pattern. He's going to remain a consistent WR1 this year, but unless he has a huge finish like last season, expect this to be the year that Wayne outproduces him.

Reggie Wayne - 7/115, 2 TD, 1 FL. Wayne had his owners pissed at halftime, posting 3 catches for 4 yards and a lost fumble returned for a TD. He blew up in the 2nd half, catching 4 balls for 111 yards and 2 TDs to leave his owners smiling come game's end. Wayne will be an elite WR1 this year, and like I said above, I believe he'll outproduce Harrison this season.

Dallas Clark - 2/48, 1/14. Not a bad outing, but he's going to rely on deep routes down the middle for his value, leaving him as an inconsistent TE1 option, but a solid TE2 option. Owners in decimal scoring leagues are probably happy with the 6.2 point production from their TE, though, if they started him.

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Mid-Week Football Injury/Player Updates:

QB:

Donovan McNabb - Nothing to note here, but he looked sharp this pre-season, so don't worry about him for week 1. He might start a bit slow with his conditioning not having played a full game in almost a year, but it shouldn't be a concern.

Jon Kitna - He missed a little bit of practice time in the preseason along with the preseason finale with back spasms, but he returned to practice and is ready to go for week 1.

RB:

Frank Gore - As most of you know, Gore missed the preseason with a broken hand. The hand is healing well, and he'll wear a pad on it to protect it, but he's ready to roll in week 1.

Willie Parker - Parker missed the first 2 preseason games with a knee ailment, but got plenty of work in the 3rd preseason game and is ready to go in week 1.

Larry Johnson - LJ missed most of the preseason in a contract holdout, but returned for the preseason finale to carry the ball a few times. The coaching staff is a bit concerned about what kind of "football shape" LJ is in right now, and while he might be a bit limited in week 1, he's good enough to start against Houston regardless. I remain very down on LJ this year. He's lost 2 HOF lineman the last two years (Willie Roaf after the 2005 season, Will Shields after the 2006 season), Herman Edwards' offense is nowhere near as good of a system as Dick Vermeil used, and the history of RBs carrying the ball 375 or more times is horrible in the next season. LJ carried it an NFL record 429 times last year including the playoffs, and he was also worked very hard after Priest Holmes went down in 2005. It is worth nothing that last year was his first year as the primary RB for all 16 games, but history is not on his side whatsoever, plus him not being in football shape yet further complicates matters. Want a few numbers? Only 3 of 19 RBs met or slightly decreased the following year as to where the other 16 had a very noticeable drop in fantasy value. These RBs averaged a drop of 107.9 fantasy points in the year following a 375+ carry season. Given the obvious drop in production due to a lesser workload combined with the degrading offense around him, and I'm fairly certain LJ will bust this year.

Laurence Maroney - Maroney's hush-hush offseason shoulder injury was the cause of concern for those looking to draft him, but he carried the ball 15 times in the 3rd preseason game, easing worries that he might not be ready to start the season. He remains a bit of an injury risk moving forward, but he's 100% for week 1.

Travis Henry - Henry's initial knee injury in week 2 of the preseason caused a lot of concern, but he was held out of the final 2 preseason games as a precaution and is ready to roll for week 1. He's also an injury risk given his history and Shanahan's reputation for over-working his primary RBs, but Shanahan's depth chart games continue with Selvin Young the current backup and Mike Bell the current FB. My take? I think this is simply motivation for Mike Bell to fix whatever problems Shanahan saw from him.

Thomas Jones - Jones' suffered a calf injury in the preseason and was held out of the remaining preseason games, but that time off is supposed to make him near 100% for the season opener. Jets' coach Eric Mangini is from Bill Belichick's School of Silent Treatment regarding injuries, so it's hard to say for sure where exactly Jones stands right now. If he's active on gameday, start him.

Clinton Portis - Portis' true health remains very much in doubt. He battled 2 separate instances of knee tendonitis this offseason, missed all 4 preseason games, and rarely practiced. It's possible that the Redskins are simply being cautious with their superstar, but the more likely scenario is that Portis still isn't 100%. He's likely not in football shape due to all the missed time, but he's going to start in week 1. Reports indicate that Betts will split time with him, and one has to wonder if that split will be 50/50, or even favor Betts in week 1. Depending on who your RB3 is, Portis remains a very risky RB2 start in week 1.

Warrick Dunn - Dunn returned quickly from back surgery to participate in the Falcons' preseason finale, but looked old and out of shape. He will remain a huge injury risk this season due to his age, career workload, smaller size, and preseason back injury. He shouldn't be anywhere near your starting roster.

Michael Turner - Turner suffered what was originally reported as a high ankle sprain, but apparently he's feeling better and might be ready for week 1. It's pretty much a non-story as he's nothing more than the handcuff to the most durable RB in the NFL, although odds are that he will get more work than last year once he's healthy.

WR:

Torry Holt - Coach Scott Linehan reported that Holt looked 100% to him, so I might have jumped the gun a bit. I still stand by my statement, though, as Holt's knee injury has lasted for about 2 years, and it was definitely a concern that Holt stated he only felt 75% just a few weeks ago. Plus, this is the time of year when coaches start hiding injury severity for strategic purposes, so it's very hard to take what they say very seriously. He remains a risk until he proves that he's healthy on the field.

Marques Colston - Colston battled a bum knee for much of the preseason, but started in the preseason finale, proving that he's 100%, or very close to it. Consider him ready for week 1.

Randy Moss - Moss has made quite a few headlines recently. He's missed all of training camp and the preseason with a mysterious hamstring ailment, and then was wildly rumored to be on the chopping block come 53 man roster cuts. He obviously survived the cuts, and one has to wonder if he's just milking this so he didn't have to go through practices. It's still a concern, but he has appeared at the media portion of practice the first two days this week. Keep an eye on the gameday inactive list, but if he's active, he'll be worth starting.

Donald Driver - Driver suffered what was originally thought to be a serious foot injury, but it's been labeled a sprain to this point and he appears healthy in practice and should be ready to go in week 1.

Mark Clayton - Clayton suffered a sprained ankle earlier in the preseason, but he returned to practice on Monday and appears ready to roll in week 1.

Darrell Jackson - Jackson has missed a lot of camp with turf toe that continues to bother him from last year, and he's also missed time recently thanks to a hamstring injury. It looks like another year of monitoring the injury reports for owners of DJax. He's rumored to be ready to play in week 1, but given his questionable health and the fact he plays on MNF, it's hard to recommend starting him unless he practices at some point this week.

Terry Glenn - Glenn is troubled by his bothersome knees and remains questionable for week 1. Patrick Crayton would make for a fine start if Glenn is to miss this game, and he's well worth picking up as a WR5 if he went undrafted in your league. Glenn's status is uncertain at this time.

TE:

Alge Crumpler - Crumpler battled a bum knee for much of the offseason, including surgery, but he returned to catch a couple passes in the preseason finale. He looks ready to go for week 1.

Jeremy Shockey - Shockey missed a bit of time in the preseason with a hamstring issue, but he's fine now and is probably as healthy as he'll be all season.

L.J. Smith - Smith returned to practice after hernia surgery and appears ready go in week 1. He's a weak start at TE, however, even at 100%.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Roger Clemens To Have MRI

Roger Clemens is scheduled for an MRI after feeling discomfort in his right elbow in his start yesterday.

Fantasy Impact: Considering where Clemens was drafted in most leagues, he's probably not a big part of your rotation, but he's been a fairly solid contributor since joining the Yankee rotation during the season. He's going to miss at least one start, and could be headed to the DL depending on the results of the MRI. I'll update this once the MRI results are released.

Correction: Kevin Jones Not Headed To PUP

Several media outlets were claiming that the Detroit Lions were set to place Kevin Jones on PUP, but it appears that is not the case. This only slightly changes the outlook for Jones as he's still not going to play the first 4-6 weeks in all likelihood. If Jones were placed on PUP, he wouldn't have been allowed to do anything with the team the first 6 weeks, so this allows him to practice with the team. Supposedly he's still not doing much cutting, and that's obviously essential to all RBs.

Fantasy Impact: If you haven't drafted yet, I wouldn't let this change your outlook of him. Yes, he's eligible to play before week 6, but I can't see him missing less than the first month. Their bye is in week 6, so it makes the most sense that the Lions hold him out of the first 5 games, and then start him in week 6. If he were on PUP, he would have to sit out the 6th game after the bye week as that is based on games and not weeks, and that might be why the Lions chose to go this route.