A day late, but who's counting. Boring sports news day. The Randy Johnson trade was made official, practice reports were released for the NFL teams still alive in the playoffs, and the coaching carosel is in full motion. The biggest story of the NFL coaching changes over the past few days was Bobby Petrino leaving Louisville for the Atlanta Falcons.
Petrino's decision has already persuaded Michael Bush to leave early. Bush missed his entire senior season after suffering a broken leg in the first game, and I believe the NCAA would have granted him an extra year of eligibility had he decided to come back. Bush had an outstanding 2005 season rushing for 1,143 yards and 23 TDs. There will be a lot of pressure on him to perform highly at the NFL Combine and at his Louisville Pro Day, and if he's not fully recovered by then or doesn't have a strong workout, he could find himself falling much farther than he hopes in the NFL draft. Scouts last saw him a year ago, so his situation isn't like McGahee's in 2003, when McGahee was still picked in the high 2nd round because the only things he missed were the NFL Combine and the Miami Pro Day. Bush's return wouldn't be without risk, however, with his former coach leaving and his QB presumably leaving as well. His offensive upside would be limited by a new system and a new QB. His talent is undeniable, however, and I'm sure the new coach would build the offense in 2007 around him. He'd be able to re-establish himself and take the pressure off his performances at the NFL Combine and Pro Day. At any rate, it was a tough decision for him either way, but he'll hope his 2005 season remains fresh in the scouts' minds and follows that up with impressive workouts.
The sports world seems to think Brian Brohm will follow suit, but he's a different story. It makes the most sense for Brohm coming off a solid season and a big bowl win. He'd have to learn a whole new offensive system, and who knows how well he would adapt to it. It's too risky for him to chance the learning curve getting him off to a slow start and potentially a slow finish, especially given Petrino's history of high scoring offenses. He'll probably enter the combine as a low 1st round/2nd round grade and have a chance to move himself up with a solid workout.
Petrino's ascension to the head coach of the Falcons is most interesting for Michael Vick. Petrino, as I mentioned before, has a history of high octane offenses and is an innovatinve offensive mind. He'll bring Vick just what he needs in terms of an offensive minded-coach, and it will be interesting to see who he hires to help run the offense and who will coach the QBs. This will likely be Vick's last coach in Atlanta, so he'll have to finally capitalize on his tremendous physical potential. It remains to be seen if Petrino's offense will be successful on the pro level, and he'll probably start by adding some talent to the WR position via the free agent market. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the free agent WR market is a bit weak. Drew Bennett and Kevin Curtis are likely the two best WRs that will be available. Bennett has talent, but is an injury risk. His height and ability to stretch the field would combine well with Vick's big arm if Bennett could stay healthy. I don't see Curtis being a fit here. He's a smallish WR with great speed, and I don't think he'd fit the type of WR Vick would have success with. Their best bet might be to work a trade with Oakland for Randy Moss. The egos of Vick and Moss might be a problem, but there isn't a better fit for what Vick does well than Randy Moss. Moss has experience working with a mobile QB when he played with Culpepper in Minnesota, so he knows how to get open when the QB starts to scramble. His height and speed would be ideal, but it remains to be seen if Atlanta will pursue Moss.
Fantasy Impact: Michael Bush is someone to keep an eye on. He has great size and is fast for his frame. He'll grab a roll similar to Brandon Jacobs at worst, and could start from week 1. He's been compared to a younger Jamal Lewis, and if he lands (and starts) in the right system he could provide RB2 value at a discounted price
Brian Brohm is a developmental QB in terms of fantasy and won't be touched except for dynasty leagues.
Michael Vick will be a bit risky as he'll be adjusting to a new offensive system, but if Petrino can adapt his offense to the pros, Vick could be quite an asset. If Atlanta can add WR talent, it would maximize his 2007 value. I still see him as a lesser QB1 and an outstanding QB2 if their offensive roster stays the same.
Tuesday, January 9, 2007
Monday, January 8, 2007
Overlooked BCS Negative - Time of Layoff
College football fans focus so much on the problems of the BCS ranking system and who gets into what bowl that we tend to forget another huge problem: the layoff between the end of the season and the bowl games.
As they continue to push the important bowls onto their own nights, and even push the championship game days beyond the last bowl (the last major bowl, the Sugar Bowl was played on January 3rd while the Orange Bowl is being played on January 8th), they increase the amount of time between the teams' final games and when they play in the BCS Championship Game. The announcers of the game this evening have mentioned several times that it's been 51 days since OSU last played. Granted a week of that is because the Big Ten doesn't have a conference championship game, but that's almost 2 months and it's completely ridiculous. These teams are not at their best going 1-2 months between games. This cheapens the true meaning of the game where it should be the two best teams in the nation, presumably playing their best football, entertaining the fans with a great football game. Instead, it's two teams that haven't played a meaningful game in over a month struggling through rust to hit their stride. It's turned into a battle of which team fights off the rust first rather than the best team winning the game.
The BCS really needs to address this issue along with a playoff system. I understand that it's tradition to have New Year's Day packed with college football games, but they're already breaking that up by spreading out the bigger bowls by putting them on their own night, and the BCS Championship Game isn't even played until a week later. If they're going to do that, why not just move all the games up to a week after the season ends? Does it really matter when they're played anymore? If these games are really for both the players on the field and the fans in the stands, then make sure these games are as good as they should be. Unfortunately, however, corporate sponsorships and money are the only things that really matter.
As they continue to push the important bowls onto their own nights, and even push the championship game days beyond the last bowl (the last major bowl, the Sugar Bowl was played on January 3rd while the Orange Bowl is being played on January 8th), they increase the amount of time between the teams' final games and when they play in the BCS Championship Game. The announcers of the game this evening have mentioned several times that it's been 51 days since OSU last played. Granted a week of that is because the Big Ten doesn't have a conference championship game, but that's almost 2 months and it's completely ridiculous. These teams are not at their best going 1-2 months between games. This cheapens the true meaning of the game where it should be the two best teams in the nation, presumably playing their best football, entertaining the fans with a great football game. Instead, it's two teams that haven't played a meaningful game in over a month struggling through rust to hit their stride. It's turned into a battle of which team fights off the rust first rather than the best team winning the game.
The BCS really needs to address this issue along with a playoff system. I understand that it's tradition to have New Year's Day packed with college football games, but they're already breaking that up by spreading out the bigger bowls by putting them on their own night, and the BCS Championship Game isn't even played until a week later. If they're going to do that, why not just move all the games up to a week after the season ends? Does it really matter when they're played anymore? If these games are really for both the players on the field and the fans in the stands, then make sure these games are as good as they should be. Unfortunately, however, corporate sponsorships and money are the only things that really matter.
Sunday, January 7, 2007
Merriman Responds To Jason Taylor
Several weeks ago Jason Taylor spoke out against Shawne Merriman regarding Merriman's steroid suspension this year, saying the following:
"You really shouldn't be able to fail a test like that and play in this league, to begin with. To make the Pro Bowl and all the other awards, I think you're walking a fine line of sending the wrong message. A performance-enhancing drug is, obviously, what it is. You enhance your performance by doing that. You fail that test, I think it's not right. It's against the rules and ultimately I think it's sending the wrong message to the youth in America and the people who look at this game not only as entertainment but also to learn lessons from it."
Taylor makes some good points about the situation. Of course Merriman has blamed the failed test on a tainted supplement, but that seems to be the carbon copy response from every athlete who fails a banned substance test and is asked about it. Is Merriman guilty? Only a few people know. My view is that these athletes depend on their bodies much like most of us depend on our minds to earn a living. I don't believe any athlete doesn't know what they're putting into their bodies because they're risking everything by not knowing. Steroids are rampant in today's sports' world, and it seems to be the guys who don't have what they put into their bodies masked well enough who get caught and punished. I don't buy that a small minority of athletes are involved. If playing a sport is your life and the majority of players around you are taking stuff that enhances their performance, it'd be extremely hard to turn the other way and not take anything. I'm not saying it's right to do it, but I understand why they choose to.
Jason Taylor was on ESPN this morning and told the crew that Shawne Merriman had sent him a package recently. The package contained a Lights Out hat, a Shawne Merriman jersey (size medium, inferring a size difference between the two athletes), and a bag of popcorn so Taylor can watch him in the playoffs from home. He also expressed his displeasure and was clearly upset by the retailiation. I found Merriman's response to be rather humorous since Taylor used the media to politick his case for the Defensive Player of the Year award and throw Merriman under the bus in the process.
Taylor has a history of speaking his mind to the media, which I admire for the most part, but I thought Taylor was wrong in saying what he did about Merriman. If he wanted to take a stand against steroids, he should have made these comments during or immediately after the suspension. Curiously, he attacks him right around the time when the Defensive Player of the Year award was about to be voted on and Taylor knew that he was going to be going against Merriman and Champ Bailey. I don't fault Taylor for saying what he said, but I fault him for the selfish timing of it. I also didn't like the fact Taylor was upset about Merriman's retaliation. You can't call someone out in the media and expect them to ignore it.
Well, Jason, remember the golden rule. If you don't want to deal with retaliation, don't open your mouth in the first place.
"You really shouldn't be able to fail a test like that and play in this league, to begin with. To make the Pro Bowl and all the other awards, I think you're walking a fine line of sending the wrong message. A performance-enhancing drug is, obviously, what it is. You enhance your performance by doing that. You fail that test, I think it's not right. It's against the rules and ultimately I think it's sending the wrong message to the youth in America and the people who look at this game not only as entertainment but also to learn lessons from it."
Taylor makes some good points about the situation. Of course Merriman has blamed the failed test on a tainted supplement, but that seems to be the carbon copy response from every athlete who fails a banned substance test and is asked about it. Is Merriman guilty? Only a few people know. My view is that these athletes depend on their bodies much like most of us depend on our minds to earn a living. I don't believe any athlete doesn't know what they're putting into their bodies because they're risking everything by not knowing. Steroids are rampant in today's sports' world, and it seems to be the guys who don't have what they put into their bodies masked well enough who get caught and punished. I don't buy that a small minority of athletes are involved. If playing a sport is your life and the majority of players around you are taking stuff that enhances their performance, it'd be extremely hard to turn the other way and not take anything. I'm not saying it's right to do it, but I understand why they choose to.
Jason Taylor was on ESPN this morning and told the crew that Shawne Merriman had sent him a package recently. The package contained a Lights Out hat, a Shawne Merriman jersey (size medium, inferring a size difference between the two athletes), and a bag of popcorn so Taylor can watch him in the playoffs from home. He also expressed his displeasure and was clearly upset by the retailiation. I found Merriman's response to be rather humorous since Taylor used the media to politick his case for the Defensive Player of the Year award and throw Merriman under the bus in the process.
Taylor has a history of speaking his mind to the media, which I admire for the most part, but I thought Taylor was wrong in saying what he did about Merriman. If he wanted to take a stand against steroids, he should have made these comments during or immediately after the suspension. Curiously, he attacks him right around the time when the Defensive Player of the Year award was about to be voted on and Taylor knew that he was going to be going against Merriman and Champ Bailey. I don't fault Taylor for saying what he said, but I fault him for the selfish timing of it. I also didn't like the fact Taylor was upset about Merriman's retaliation. You can't call someone out in the media and expect them to ignore it.
Well, Jason, remember the golden rule. If you don't want to deal with retaliation, don't open your mouth in the first place.
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