Hey All
I have completed my ADP value analysis for the 2009 season. Like I mentioned last year, I don't do kickers and defenses. So many valuable options emerge early on, and a number of the big named defenses that were drafted in the middle rounds either get dropped or severely underperform. I generally never take a defense before the second to last round unless there's nobody that stands out a round or two before that, and I really like a particular unit. I never take a kicker before the last round, and when I do, I opt for a kicker on a good offense that plays in favorable conditions.
I will make updates to these as more information is known, and as preseason games play out. I will make sure to put down an individual post for each update as I've written down a lot of information and it'll be impossible to weed through the updates without a heads up. Most of the ADP information will stay right about in line with where they're at now, although I did note a couple likely movers (Brett Favre, Ray Rice) that will probably see a spike as more concrete information is known about their roles. Preseason injuries can always play a role as well.
ADP is certainly not the end-all be-all of drafting, but it provides a very valuable guideline on what fantasy nation thinks of each player. For example, I draft in a league full of Bears fans, so odds are guys like Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen, and perhaps even Devin Hester will go a round or two above their ADP. If you've played in the same league for several years, you probably know the drafting tendencies of some or most of the owners, and you can take that into consideration when figuring if someone will go too early or not.
If you really like a player, and you feel he is undervalued, plan accordingly and draft him early enough to make sure you get him, but also understand where that line is of taking him too early. Drafting someone too early can turn him from a value pick into a "must perform at the level I expect", which adds to the downside potential of the selection.
Last year, I liked the 4th/5th round RBs a lot, so I decided to take my stud RB 1st, 2 stud WRs in the 2nd/3rd, and then come back with my 2nd RB and 3rd WR in the next two rounds. I haven't looked close enough at everything yet to form a general strategy for this season, but this is another important aspect of preparing for your draft. You never, ever want to stick to a rigid strategy, though. If you do that, you can miss out on a player that has fallen too far at a position you weren't targeting.
So, as always, there's a lot to take into consideration, and hopefully my ADP guide will help you prepare for your draft. Have fun with it, fantasy football draft day is one of the best days of the year!
Friday, July 24, 2009
2009 TE1 Value Analysis
I have never been big on drafting TEs early on. Last year I did perfectly fine waiting and grabbing either Tony Scheffler or Owen Daniels in the 10th or 11th rounds and getting TE1 value from them. I understand the fascination with taking a Jason Witten/Antonio Gates type early in the draft for security measures, but at a 4th/5th round price, I think you're wasting a pick when you can be selecting a more valuable RB/WR instead. Occasionally there's a mid-round guy that I like, and there is one this year, but generally I like waiting til the 10th round or later and snagging two sleepers instead. That being said, let's get on with it...
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 42.8 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, Witten managed to still post a solid TE1 season. His TD total dropped, but part of that can be blamed on Tony Romo's injury as well as the injuries. With Owens now gone, Witten will definitely be Romo's go-to guy, and he should post another very good season.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Gates, much like Witten, also dealt with a number of injuries, but he also battled through it and posted a solid TE1 season as well. The emergence of Vincent Jackson has meant that Gates has a 1B option to share the ball with, but Rivers will still look to Gates on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Gates will likely lead the Chargers in receptions again, and he makes for a great TE1 option at a slight discount from previous seasons.
3) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 56.9 (5th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is now the starting TE for the Falcons.
Overview: Expectations are probably sky-high for Gonzalez this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if people started taking him as the first TE off the board. Thanks to the Chiefs transitioning to a spread offense mid-season last year, Gonzalez finished as the #1 TE with a huge 2nd half. Gonzo moves back to a run-first offense in Atlanta this year, although the upgrade in QB play will be huge. A repeat of 2008's 2nd half is completely out of the question, but he should post a solid TE1 season. He'll probably go higher than he should, though.
4) Dallas Clark
ADP: 63.2 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Clark posted a career high in receptions and yardage last season, which made up for his decrease in TDs. With the ineffective Harrison gone, replaced by the more productive Anthony Gonzalez, the passing offense has more life in 2009. Make no mistake though as Clark remains the 2nd option behind Reggie Wayne. Manning loves throwing to him, and he has a better chemistry with Manning thanks to his time in this offense. He definitely carries an injury risk, but his upside balances it out nicely.
5) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 73.9 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Winslow is now the starting TE for the Buccaneers.
Overview: Winslow was shuffled from Cleveland to Tampa Bay around the NFL draft, so he's essentially moving laterally from one bad offense to another. Furthermore, the Bucs project as a run-heavy team with the departure of Jon Gruden, so his ability to shine in an innovative passing game is gone. He'll share targets with top WR Antonio Bryant, but with the run-first mentality and the shaky QB situation, he's going to have a hard time being a top 5 TE.
6) Greg Olsen
ADP: 81.8 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Jay Cutler is the new starting QB.
Overview: Olsen is set to join the elite TEs this season, so if I can land him in the 7th round, I'm going to be elated. Cutler has always shown a fondness for his TEs, using Scheffler regularly in Denver, and Olsen is even more talented. Cutler and Olsen have been hanging out quite a bit this offseason, so they already have a head start working on a bond together. Olsen already posted a TE1 season last year with shaky QB play, so the steady arm of Cutler will allow him to take the next jump. He's a great TE1 target.
7) Chris Cooley
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Despite the awful offense that surrounded him in the 2nd half of the season, Cooley managed to post a career high in receptions and yardage, but completely irritated owners with only 1 TD. Expect a regression towards the mean with a decrease in receptions and yardage this season, but an increase in TDs. Cooley is as steady as they come and he's being drafted just about right.
8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 89.5 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Daniels turned in a great season last year as a late pick, but was similar frustrating as Cooley that despite posting over 800 receiving yards, he only scored 2 TDs. The problem with him is that both AJ and Walters are such great red zone targets, so he's not a go-to option near the goal line. I expect a couple more TDs from him this year, but he's being drafted just about right.
9) John Carlson
ADP: 99.8 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh
Overview: Carlson posted a pretty impressive rookie TE campaign of 627 yards and 5 TDs. He looked like the best receiving target on the team for much of the year and finally gave Seattle the receiving presence at the TE position that they have been looking for. The problem is the uncertain offense that Jim Mora Jr. will run, and whether or not it'll include Carlson as much as Holmgren's did. Given the uncertain role and the increased WR talent around him, Carlson might struggle to top his 2008 numbers, so I would look somewhere else for your TE1.
10) Zach Miller
ADP: 116.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Darius Heyward-Bey.
Overview: There aren't too many TE's that post almost 800 yards, but then get drafted 10th overall last year. The weak offense held him to 1 TD, but that's a bit fluky. Miller should be able to join the middle tiered TEs this year with a few more scores, and given what he accomplished last season in a horrible passing game, there's room for upside here. Think Chris Cooley.
11) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 123.9 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: After an offseason trade upgrade Shockey's surrounding offense, he got hurt again and never fully acclimated himself into the Saints offense. Now given a full offseason in his new surroundings, this is a put up or shut up year for Shockey. He couldn't ask for a better passing attack to be a part of, and he's coming at a large discount this year. If you're into waiting for a TE, Shockey is a perfect selection this year.
12) Dustin Keller
ADP: 124.9 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens.
Overview: Keller had a real nice stretch from weeks 10-13, catching at least 6 passes each week, but that was sandwiched around mostly uneventful weeks as well. Keller was as much of a slot receiver as a TE given his inability to block successfully, and given the Jets didn't upgrade their WRs much at all, expect him to hold onto that same role and improve in 2009. His numbers should go up a bit, but with either a rookie or an uninspiring veteran taking over the offense, his upside is only so high. He's a decent end-game TE1.
Other TEs To Keep An Eye On:
Tony Scheffler - A season after posting a solid season despite missing 4 games due to injury, Scheffler isn't even drafted as a TE1 this season. This is for good reason because the Broncos are moving to a less TE-friendly offense as NE has never featured one, but Scheffler is a talent that shouldn't be wasted. He's too risky to have as your TE1, but he's worth stashing as a TE2 to see what his new role is.
Heath Miller - Miller was again completely underused last season, and since he'll be returning to the exact same offense, it's near impossible to predict much else. The upside is if the line improves it's blocking, it'll free Miller up to run some more routes. He's worth a TE2 stash to find out.
Vernon Davis - Another disappointing season last year hit rock bottom when new coach Mike Singletary sent him to the lockers after a disagreement on the field. Martz honestly had no idea how to use him, and Davis didn't force his hand with a questionable work ethic. He's the perfect type of elite talent to stash as a TE2 to see if he finally gets it this year, and if he's used right in the new offense.
Brent Celek - SLEEPER ALERT. Celek made waves in the playoffs last season after taking over as the starting TE, and there's good reason to think that he'll continue his success. A move as high as a mid-tiered TE would not surprise, so if you want to wait really late, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking Celek as a TE1. I don't view him as a fluke, but his upside is limited by the Eagles ability to spread the ball around.
1) Jason Witten
ADP: 42.8 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, Witten managed to still post a solid TE1 season. His TD total dropped, but part of that can be blamed on Tony Romo's injury as well as the injuries. With Owens now gone, Witten will definitely be Romo's go-to guy, and he should post another very good season.
2) Antonio Gates
ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Gates, much like Witten, also dealt with a number of injuries, but he also battled through it and posted a solid TE1 season as well. The emergence of Vincent Jackson has meant that Gates has a 1B option to share the ball with, but Rivers will still look to Gates on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Gates will likely lead the Chargers in receptions again, and he makes for a great TE1 option at a slight discount from previous seasons.
3) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 56.9 (5th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is now the starting TE for the Falcons.
Overview: Expectations are probably sky-high for Gonzalez this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if people started taking him as the first TE off the board. Thanks to the Chiefs transitioning to a spread offense mid-season last year, Gonzalez finished as the #1 TE with a huge 2nd half. Gonzo moves back to a run-first offense in Atlanta this year, although the upgrade in QB play will be huge. A repeat of 2008's 2nd half is completely out of the question, but he should post a solid TE1 season. He'll probably go higher than he should, though.
4) Dallas Clark
ADP: 63.2 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Clark posted a career high in receptions and yardage last season, which made up for his decrease in TDs. With the ineffective Harrison gone, replaced by the more productive Anthony Gonzalez, the passing offense has more life in 2009. Make no mistake though as Clark remains the 2nd option behind Reggie Wayne. Manning loves throwing to him, and he has a better chemistry with Manning thanks to his time in this offense. He definitely carries an injury risk, but his upside balances it out nicely.
5) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 73.9 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Winslow is now the starting TE for the Buccaneers.
Overview: Winslow was shuffled from Cleveland to Tampa Bay around the NFL draft, so he's essentially moving laterally from one bad offense to another. Furthermore, the Bucs project as a run-heavy team with the departure of Jon Gruden, so his ability to shine in an innovative passing game is gone. He'll share targets with top WR Antonio Bryant, but with the run-first mentality and the shaky QB situation, he's going to have a hard time being a top 5 TE.
6) Greg Olsen
ADP: 81.8 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Jay Cutler is the new starting QB.
Overview: Olsen is set to join the elite TEs this season, so if I can land him in the 7th round, I'm going to be elated. Cutler has always shown a fondness for his TEs, using Scheffler regularly in Denver, and Olsen is even more talented. Cutler and Olsen have been hanging out quite a bit this offseason, so they already have a head start working on a bond together. Olsen already posted a TE1 season last year with shaky QB play, so the steady arm of Cutler will allow him to take the next jump. He's a great TE1 target.
7) Chris Cooley
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Despite the awful offense that surrounded him in the 2nd half of the season, Cooley managed to post a career high in receptions and yardage, but completely irritated owners with only 1 TD. Expect a regression towards the mean with a decrease in receptions and yardage this season, but an increase in TDs. Cooley is as steady as they come and he's being drafted just about right.
8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 89.5 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Daniels turned in a great season last year as a late pick, but was similar frustrating as Cooley that despite posting over 800 receiving yards, he only scored 2 TDs. The problem with him is that both AJ and Walters are such great red zone targets, so he's not a go-to option near the goal line. I expect a couple more TDs from him this year, but he's being drafted just about right.
9) John Carlson
ADP: 99.8 (9th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR TJ Houshmandzadeh
Overview: Carlson posted a pretty impressive rookie TE campaign of 627 yards and 5 TDs. He looked like the best receiving target on the team for much of the year and finally gave Seattle the receiving presence at the TE position that they have been looking for. The problem is the uncertain offense that Jim Mora Jr. will run, and whether or not it'll include Carlson as much as Holmgren's did. Given the uncertain role and the increased WR talent around him, Carlson might struggle to top his 2008 numbers, so I would look somewhere else for your TE1.
10) Zach Miller
ADP: 116.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Darius Heyward-Bey.
Overview: There aren't too many TE's that post almost 800 yards, but then get drafted 10th overall last year. The weak offense held him to 1 TD, but that's a bit fluky. Miller should be able to join the middle tiered TEs this year with a few more scores, and given what he accomplished last season in a horrible passing game, there's room for upside here. Think Chris Cooley.
11) Jeremy Shockey
ADP: 123.9 (11th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: After an offseason trade upgrade Shockey's surrounding offense, he got hurt again and never fully acclimated himself into the Saints offense. Now given a full offseason in his new surroundings, this is a put up or shut up year for Shockey. He couldn't ask for a better passing attack to be a part of, and he's coming at a large discount this year. If you're into waiting for a TE, Shockey is a perfect selection this year.
12) Dustin Keller
ADP: 124.9 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens.
Overview: Keller had a real nice stretch from weeks 10-13, catching at least 6 passes each week, but that was sandwiched around mostly uneventful weeks as well. Keller was as much of a slot receiver as a TE given his inability to block successfully, and given the Jets didn't upgrade their WRs much at all, expect him to hold onto that same role and improve in 2009. His numbers should go up a bit, but with either a rookie or an uninspiring veteran taking over the offense, his upside is only so high. He's a decent end-game TE1.
Other TEs To Keep An Eye On:
Tony Scheffler - A season after posting a solid season despite missing 4 games due to injury, Scheffler isn't even drafted as a TE1 this season. This is for good reason because the Broncos are moving to a less TE-friendly offense as NE has never featured one, but Scheffler is a talent that shouldn't be wasted. He's too risky to have as your TE1, but he's worth stashing as a TE2 to see what his new role is.
Heath Miller - Miller was again completely underused last season, and since he'll be returning to the exact same offense, it's near impossible to predict much else. The upside is if the line improves it's blocking, it'll free Miller up to run some more routes. He's worth a TE2 stash to find out.
Vernon Davis - Another disappointing season last year hit rock bottom when new coach Mike Singletary sent him to the lockers after a disagreement on the field. Martz honestly had no idea how to use him, and Davis didn't force his hand with a questionable work ethic. He's the perfect type of elite talent to stash as a TE2 to see if he finally gets it this year, and if he's used right in the new offense.
Brent Celek - SLEEPER ALERT. Celek made waves in the playoffs last season after taking over as the starting TE, and there's good reason to think that he'll continue his success. A move as high as a mid-tiered TE would not surprise, so if you want to wait really late, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking Celek as a TE1. I don't view him as a fluke, but his upside is limited by the Eagles ability to spread the ball around.
2009 WR5 Value Analysis
49) Hakeem Nicks
ADP: 143.0 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nicks is the new backup WR for the Giants.
Overview: As it stands right now, Nicks is a bit overvalued, but only in the WR4 sense. Since he's on the fringe, it means some people are taking him as a WR4, and he might not be ready by the time you need a backup WR come bye weeks. Nicks has been referred to as the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft, and if he can put that on display on the practice field and in preseason, it's possible he'll pass Domenick Hixon sooner than later. He still has to beat him out to start and be a fantasy factor. Keep an eye on his preseason progress.
50) Steve Smith
ADP: 150.3 (13th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Smith is the new starting WR for the Giants.
Overview: Despite all the talk about Hixon vs. Nicks vs. Manningham, there's Steve Smith, the guy that's actually anchored into a defined starting role as the new Amani Toomer for this squad. There's a very good chance he leads the Giants in receptions, and possibly in even receiving yards this season. Hell, if those three split time, he could even lead the team in TDs. I think Smith is an excellent WR4 with a very good potential for WR3 value this season.
51) Muhsin Muhammad
ADP: 174.7 (15th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Muhammad is aging, seeing fewer targets, and still plays on a run heavy offense with a declining QB. You should be using your WR5 position on exciting young talent that could make a leap, not a veteran that offers no upside.
52) Miles Austin
ADP: 175.9 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Austin is the new starting slot WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: The Cowboys have been hyping up Austin this offseason, and given the limited upside of Patrick Crayton, Austin has a chance to start sooner or later opposite Roy Williams. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity and is being pushed by Sam Hurd. He's an upside WR5 pick, but he isn't assured of a concrete role on the offense.
53) Nate Washington
ADP: 178.0 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Washington is competing to be the new starting WR for the Titans.
Overview: The Titans went out and spent money to bring in Nate Washington as a field stretcher for their offense this season. Kerry Collins certainly still has the arm to hit him deep, so it wouldn't shock me if Washington led the Titans in receiving yards and even TDs. However, his preseason hamstring injury could cost him up to several regular season games, and Kenny Britt has made a big impact so far. Depending on Britt's performance and how long Washington is out, he might not have a starting job when he recovers. Draft at your own peril, but he's not a horrible speculator WR5.
54) Greg Camarillo
ADP: 179.3 (15th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Brian Hartline.
Overview: Camarillo has apparently lost his battle to be a starting WR to rookie Brian Hartline. Don't bother.
55) Joey Galloway
ADP: 186.9 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: No.
56) Davone Bess
ADP: 189.3 (16th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: See Camarillo above.
57) Sidney Rice
ADP: 189.8 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: What an ADP difference hype makes between Harvin and Rice. People have forgotten about how talented Sydney Rice was coming out of school, and if he's finally healthy, he could take a leap in production and certainly keep Percy Harvin to a slot/gimmick role. It's entirely possible that Harvin takes a huge step forward and wins the job, but a healthy Rice is a great fit opposite Bernard Berrian. He's someone to keep an eye on in the preseason, but it appears that Harvin will pass him sooner than later. He's a decent guy to stash, but don't expect much.
58) Chris Henry
ADP: 190.1 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Henry is going to start the season as the slot WR, but with the Bengals likely to use many 3 WR formations, he's going to be on the field quite a bit, just like he usually has been throughout his career. Better yet, if CJ just can't find it again, Henry will replace him on the outside. He's a fringe bye week fill-in as slot receivers are always inconsistent in their production, but he has upside to be an every week starter should something happen to CJ or Coles. He's a good WR5 to have stashed. Henry's ADP has shot up quite a bit since I wrote this, and you could risk him as a WR4, but I'd still feel more comfortable with him as a WR5. If he earned a starting role, he'd immediately be a WR3.
59) Darius Heyward-Bey
ADP: 195.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DHB is going to generate excitement with his track speed, but he is not NFL ready despite the fact he's probably going to start for the Raiders this year. Expect some big plays, but on a run-first offense, with Jamarcus Russell as his QB, and the fact he's very green behind the ears, I'd rather leave him on the waiver wire to see if he can emerge at some point. Odds are he won't in 2009.
60) Josh Morgan
ADP: 196.8 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Morgan is the new starting WR for the 49ers.
Overview: SLEEPER ALERT. Morgan is a great deep sleeper this year...he's my Antonio Bryant of 2009. It's true that he's going to start on a run-first offense, and that Michael Crabtree is also aboard, but I expect Morgan to post the best line of 49ers receivers this year. Shaun Hill is an underrated, albeit unexciting QB, Frank Gore will keep defenses focused on him, and Crabtree's learning curve has been stunted thanks to recovering from a foot injury. I love Morgan as much as a WR4 this year, with WR3 upside. For a WR5 price, it's definitely worth investing.
Other WRs To Keep An Eye On:
Mark Bradley - He's going to start opposite Dwayne Bowe on a shotgun-based spread offense. With Tony Gonzalez gone, someone has to step up to be the secondary option. Bradley certainly has the talent, but he's also very injury-prone. He's a solid WR5 to see what happens.
Brian Hartline - Hartline has beaten out Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to be the starting WR opposite Ted Ginn. With Ginn's inconsistency, there's an outside chance Hartline could lead the Phins in receiving. He's a decent WR5 to stash.
Kenny Britt - Britt has made a big splash in the preseason, and with Nate Washington's hamstring injury, he has a chance to claim the starting role opposite Justin Gage. He's definitely a solid WR5 to see if he can capitalize on the opportunity.
ADP: 143.0 (12th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nicks is the new backup WR for the Giants.
Overview: As it stands right now, Nicks is a bit overvalued, but only in the WR4 sense. Since he's on the fringe, it means some people are taking him as a WR4, and he might not be ready by the time you need a backup WR come bye weeks. Nicks has been referred to as the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft, and if he can put that on display on the practice field and in preseason, it's possible he'll pass Domenick Hixon sooner than later. He still has to beat him out to start and be a fantasy factor. Keep an eye on his preseason progress.
50) Steve Smith
ADP: 150.3 (13th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Smith is the new starting WR for the Giants.
Overview: Despite all the talk about Hixon vs. Nicks vs. Manningham, there's Steve Smith, the guy that's actually anchored into a defined starting role as the new Amani Toomer for this squad. There's a very good chance he leads the Giants in receptions, and possibly in even receiving yards this season. Hell, if those three split time, he could even lead the team in TDs. I think Smith is an excellent WR4 with a very good potential for WR3 value this season.
51) Muhsin Muhammad
ADP: 174.7 (15th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Muhammad is aging, seeing fewer targets, and still plays on a run heavy offense with a declining QB. You should be using your WR5 position on exciting young talent that could make a leap, not a veteran that offers no upside.
52) Miles Austin
ADP: 175.9 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Austin is the new starting slot WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: The Cowboys have been hyping up Austin this offseason, and given the limited upside of Patrick Crayton, Austin has a chance to start sooner or later opposite Roy Williams. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity and is being pushed by Sam Hurd. He's an upside WR5 pick, but he isn't assured of a concrete role on the offense.
53) Nate Washington
ADP: 178.0 (15th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Washington is competing to be the new starting WR for the Titans.
Overview: The Titans went out and spent money to bring in Nate Washington as a field stretcher for their offense this season. Kerry Collins certainly still has the arm to hit him deep, so it wouldn't shock me if Washington led the Titans in receiving yards and even TDs. However, his preseason hamstring injury could cost him up to several regular season games, and Kenny Britt has made a big impact so far. Depending on Britt's performance and how long Washington is out, he might not have a starting job when he recovers. Draft at your own peril, but he's not a horrible speculator WR5.
54) Greg Camarillo
ADP: 179.3 (15th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Brian Hartline.
Overview: Camarillo has apparently lost his battle to be a starting WR to rookie Brian Hartline. Don't bother.
55) Joey Galloway
ADP: 186.9 (16th round, 7th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: No.
56) Davone Bess
ADP: 189.3 (16th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: See Camarillo above.
57) Sidney Rice
ADP: 189.8 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: What an ADP difference hype makes between Harvin and Rice. People have forgotten about how talented Sydney Rice was coming out of school, and if he's finally healthy, he could take a leap in production and certainly keep Percy Harvin to a slot/gimmick role. It's entirely possible that Harvin takes a huge step forward and wins the job, but a healthy Rice is a great fit opposite Bernard Berrian. He's someone to keep an eye on in the preseason, but it appears that Harvin will pass him sooner than later. He's a decent guy to stash, but don't expect much.
58) Chris Henry
ADP: 190.1 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Henry is going to start the season as the slot WR, but with the Bengals likely to use many 3 WR formations, he's going to be on the field quite a bit, just like he usually has been throughout his career. Better yet, if CJ just can't find it again, Henry will replace him on the outside. He's a fringe bye week fill-in as slot receivers are always inconsistent in their production, but he has upside to be an every week starter should something happen to CJ or Coles. He's a good WR5 to have stashed. Henry's ADP has shot up quite a bit since I wrote this, and you could risk him as a WR4, but I'd still feel more comfortable with him as a WR5. If he earned a starting role, he'd immediately be a WR3.
59) Darius Heyward-Bey
ADP: 195.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DHB is going to generate excitement with his track speed, but he is not NFL ready despite the fact he's probably going to start for the Raiders this year. Expect some big plays, but on a run-first offense, with Jamarcus Russell as his QB, and the fact he's very green behind the ears, I'd rather leave him on the waiver wire to see if he can emerge at some point. Odds are he won't in 2009.
60) Josh Morgan
ADP: 196.8 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Morgan is the new starting WR for the 49ers.
Overview: SLEEPER ALERT. Morgan is a great deep sleeper this year...he's my Antonio Bryant of 2009. It's true that he's going to start on a run-first offense, and that Michael Crabtree is also aboard, but I expect Morgan to post the best line of 49ers receivers this year. Shaun Hill is an underrated, albeit unexciting QB, Frank Gore will keep defenses focused on him, and Crabtree's learning curve has been stunted thanks to recovering from a foot injury. I love Morgan as much as a WR4 this year, with WR3 upside. For a WR5 price, it's definitely worth investing.
Other WRs To Keep An Eye On:
Mark Bradley - He's going to start opposite Dwayne Bowe on a shotgun-based spread offense. With Tony Gonzalez gone, someone has to step up to be the secondary option. Bradley certainly has the talent, but he's also very injury-prone. He's a solid WR5 to see what happens.
Brian Hartline - Hartline has beaten out Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to be the starting WR opposite Ted Ginn. With Ginn's inconsistency, there's an outside chance Hartline could lead the Phins in receiving. He's a decent WR5 to stash.
Kenny Britt - Britt has made a big splash in the preseason, and with Nate Washington's hamstring injury, he has a chance to claim the starting role opposite Justin Gage. He's definitely a solid WR5 to see if he can capitalize on the opportunity.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
2009 WR4 Value Analysis
37) Michael Cratree
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Crabtree is the new WR for the 49ers.
Overview: Crabtree is still holding out and has no hope for an early season impact with the 49ers. He could prove to be productive sometime in the 2nd half, but I'd avoid drafting him altogether.
38) Devin Hester
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Hester started to make some strides as a WR last season as he was pulled from kick returns and started focusing on being a full-time WR. With that added experience usually comes added production, and now he has a QB that can consistently get him the ball deep down the field. He is easily the most talented WR on the team, and he will likely lead the Bears in receiving yardage. He'll defintely have some down games as he continues to adjust to being a WR at the NFL level, but I think he'll put up enough good games to be a solid WR3.
39) Domenik Hixon
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks.
Overview: Hixon was the first choice to replace Burress, and he did so to mixed reviews. He can definitely make plays, but he didn't overwhelm anyone. That being said, it lead the Giants to draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round with the thought that he'll eventually become their #1 go-to receiver. With Steve Smith expected to settle in as the possession receiver, the Giants will take a hard look at Hixon, last year's draft pick Mario Manningham, and 1st rounder Hakeen Nicks for their vacant WR spots. I fully expect Hixon to start in week 1, but he'll eventually be pushed by the more talented Hicks, called the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft. He should have his chances, but he's a bit of a risk. Make sure he's your WR4.
40) Ted Ginn Jr.
ADP: 109.9 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ginn is a great value pick in 2009. There have been very positive reports about Ginn so far this offseason, and while a lot of it is fluff, there's reason to believe that Ginn is ready to take the next step. There's no question that he possesses the speed and explosiveness to be a great NFL WR, but it's his hands and route running that needed work. I think Ginn can take a step up to a WR3, or at the very best a WR2, but Pennington's weak arm, the run-first mentality of the Dolphins, and Ginn's learning curve will limit exactly how good he'll be this year. He's best fit as a WR4 until he proves otherwise, but he certainly has potential.
41) Chris Chambers
ADP: 112.2 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Chambers started off through 5 games with a ridiculous 5 TDs on only 11 catches, but then an ankle injury killed his season as he fell to 3rd fiddle in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. Chambers isn't going to suddenly become a favorite target, and there are only so many targets to go around on a team that still relies on the run. He's a decent WR4, but a re-emergence as a fantasy starter is probably asking too much.
42) Jeremy Maclin
ADP: 112.5 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Maclin is a slot/backup WR for the Eagles.
Overview: I imagine fantasy nation is believing Maclin will repeat DeSean Jackson's season from last year, but I don't believe this will be the case. Maclin is at best 3rd on the depth chart behind DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, and he'll be transitioning from a college spread offense to a pro-style, WCO offense. It will be a lot to ask for Maclin to step in, learn the offense, and start right away. Odds are he's a year away from being fantasy relevant, so I'd opt for someone with a more defined role as my WR4.
43) Mark Clayton
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Clayton has long been a breakout candidate for 2 years now, but he never seems to come through on his promise. After a promising sophomore season, he's thrown up two duds. Derrick Mason has dominated the targets, and the passing attack has been mediocre. This will continue to be a run dominated offense, Mason has decided to return, and Clayton now has yet another leg injury that will keep him out 4-6 weeks. Clayton can't stay healthy, and he's not going to see enough targets when on the field. Worse yet, Demetrius Williams will have a chance to take Clayton's job while he's hurt. Pass.
44) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin
Overview: Curtis had a lost 2008 season due to a sports hernia that caused him to miss almost half of it, but he returned to be a solid contributor to the offense in the 2nd half. He's going to start opposite DeSean Jackson, and he should post a solid season. He's quick, reliable, and a good fit for the WCO that the Eagles run. Jeremy Maclin might start pushing him later in the season as a younger, more explosive option, but expect Curtis to turn in a solid WR4 season with WR3 potential.
45) Percy Harvin
ADP: 129.7 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Harvin is the new slot WR for the Vikings.
Overview: As it stands right now, Harvin is going to backup both WR positions and play the slot in 3 WR looks. He'll also man the Wildcat QB position, and he'll probably line up in the backfield as well. Harvin has a boatload of talent, and the Vikings will move him all around the field, and they will find ways to get him the ball. He's already their 2nd most talented position player behind Adrian Peterson. There's no way I'd draft him as a WR3, but he has that upside. He's best fit as a WR4 until you see how they plan to use him.
46) Deion Branch
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Think about what Branch has done since leaving New England. Now consider he had another offseason knee surgery. Is this someone you want as your top backup WR?
47) Justin Gage
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: Gage missed a few games with injuries, but he emerged as the go-to receiver in the Titans passing game and posted a great 10/135 line in their playoff game. Playing with a heavy run-first offense and Kerry Collins as his QB limits his upside, but Gage is a big receiver that fits well into the Titans' game plan. Nate Washington will provide a nice deep threat opposite him. I think Gage is a solid WR4 who can be counted on to start and produce decent numbers on bye weeks and for injuries.
48) Michael Jenkins
ADP: 137.6 (12th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'll keep this one simple as well. He posted 777 yards and 3 TDs in his career year. He plays for a run-first offense, and he'll be the 3rd option at best in the passing game. He's not fast nor a game breaker. He'll have a few decent games, but you can aim higher. He's a WR5 at best.
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Crabtree is the new WR for the 49ers.
Overview: Crabtree is still holding out and has no hope for an early season impact with the 49ers. He could prove to be productive sometime in the 2nd half, but I'd avoid drafting him altogether.
38) Devin Hester
ADP: 94.8 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Hester started to make some strides as a WR last season as he was pulled from kick returns and started focusing on being a full-time WR. With that added experience usually comes added production, and now he has a QB that can consistently get him the ball deep down the field. He is easily the most talented WR on the team, and he will likely lead the Bears in receiving yardage. He'll defintely have some down games as he continues to adjust to being a WR at the NFL level, but I think he'll put up enough good games to be a solid WR3.
39) Domenik Hixon
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress, drafted WR Hakeem Nicks.
Overview: Hixon was the first choice to replace Burress, and he did so to mixed reviews. He can definitely make plays, but he didn't overwhelm anyone. That being said, it lead the Giants to draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round with the thought that he'll eventually become their #1 go-to receiver. With Steve Smith expected to settle in as the possession receiver, the Giants will take a hard look at Hixon, last year's draft pick Mario Manningham, and 1st rounder Hakeen Nicks for their vacant WR spots. I fully expect Hixon to start in week 1, but he'll eventually be pushed by the more talented Hicks, called the most NFL ready WR in the 2009 draft. He should have his chances, but he's a bit of a risk. Make sure he's your WR4.
40) Ted Ginn Jr.
ADP: 109.9 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ginn is a great value pick in 2009. There have been very positive reports about Ginn so far this offseason, and while a lot of it is fluff, there's reason to believe that Ginn is ready to take the next step. There's no question that he possesses the speed and explosiveness to be a great NFL WR, but it's his hands and route running that needed work. I think Ginn can take a step up to a WR3, or at the very best a WR2, but Pennington's weak arm, the run-first mentality of the Dolphins, and Ginn's learning curve will limit exactly how good he'll be this year. He's best fit as a WR4 until he proves otherwise, but he certainly has potential.
41) Chris Chambers
ADP: 112.2 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Chambers started off through 5 games with a ridiculous 5 TDs on only 11 catches, but then an ankle injury killed his season as he fell to 3rd fiddle in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. Chambers isn't going to suddenly become a favorite target, and there are only so many targets to go around on a team that still relies on the run. He's a decent WR4, but a re-emergence as a fantasy starter is probably asking too much.
42) Jeremy Maclin
ADP: 112.5 (10th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Maclin is a slot/backup WR for the Eagles.
Overview: I imagine fantasy nation is believing Maclin will repeat DeSean Jackson's season from last year, but I don't believe this will be the case. Maclin is at best 3rd on the depth chart behind DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, and he'll be transitioning from a college spread offense to a pro-style, WCO offense. It will be a lot to ask for Maclin to step in, learn the offense, and start right away. Odds are he's a year away from being fantasy relevant, so I'd opt for someone with a more defined role as my WR4.
43) Mark Clayton
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Clayton has long been a breakout candidate for 2 years now, but he never seems to come through on his promise. After a promising sophomore season, he's thrown up two duds. Derrick Mason has dominated the targets, and the passing attack has been mediocre. This will continue to be a run dominated offense, Mason has decided to return, and Clayton now has yet another leg injury that will keep him out 4-6 weeks. Clayton can't stay healthy, and he's not going to see enough targets when on the field. Worse yet, Demetrius Williams will have a chance to take Clayton's job while he's hurt. Pass.
44) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 123.1 (11th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin
Overview: Curtis had a lost 2008 season due to a sports hernia that caused him to miss almost half of it, but he returned to be a solid contributor to the offense in the 2nd half. He's going to start opposite DeSean Jackson, and he should post a solid season. He's quick, reliable, and a good fit for the WCO that the Eagles run. Jeremy Maclin might start pushing him later in the season as a younger, more explosive option, but expect Curtis to turn in a solid WR4 season with WR3 potential.
45) Percy Harvin
ADP: 129.7 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Harvin is the new slot WR for the Vikings.
Overview: As it stands right now, Harvin is going to backup both WR positions and play the slot in 3 WR looks. He'll also man the Wildcat QB position, and he'll probably line up in the backfield as well. Harvin has a boatload of talent, and the Vikings will move him all around the field, and they will find ways to get him the ball. He's already their 2nd most talented position player behind Adrian Peterson. There's no way I'd draft him as a WR3, but he has that upside. He's best fit as a WR4 until you see how they plan to use him.
46) Deion Branch
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Think about what Branch has done since leaving New England. Now consider he had another offseason knee surgery. Is this someone you want as your top backup WR?
47) Justin Gage
ADP: 135.0 (12th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: Gage missed a few games with injuries, but he emerged as the go-to receiver in the Titans passing game and posted a great 10/135 line in their playoff game. Playing with a heavy run-first offense and Kerry Collins as his QB limits his upside, but Gage is a big receiver that fits well into the Titans' game plan. Nate Washington will provide a nice deep threat opposite him. I think Gage is a solid WR4 who can be counted on to start and produce decent numbers on bye weeks and for injuries.
48) Michael Jenkins
ADP: 137.6 (12th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'll keep this one simple as well. He posted 777 yards and 3 TDs in his career year. He plays for a run-first offense, and he'll be the 3rd option at best in the passing game. He's not fast nor a game breaker. He'll have a few decent games, but you can aim higher. He's a WR5 at best.
2009 WR3 Value Analysis
25) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 64.7 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Holmes disappointed a bit in 2008 by not living up to the preseason hype. He never hit the 100 yard make in any game...prior to the Super Bowl where he blew up for 9/131 in his best game of the year. With Hines Ward starting his decline, Holmes is set to finally take over the primary WR responsibilities. Expect Holmes' best season to date and solid WR2 value.
26) Lance Moore
ADP: 66.0 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Moore came out of nowhere to post an incredible season that included 10 TDs. I expect him to regress back to 5-6 TDs, but probably turn in his first 1,000 yard season this year. Keep in mind that with Colston returning and Shockey putting in a full offseason, Moore probably won't see as many targets, but he's an excellent fit for the Saints offense and will like turning in a low WR2/high WR3 season.
27) Hines Ward
ADP: 69.2 (6th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: One more shot with this. WR declines are a bit unpredictable, but there comes a certain point where I don't draft a WR anymore. Last season was just that for me with Ward, and while I missed a pretty solid season, I want my WR3s to have upside to be a WR2, or even a WR1 if I'm lucky. I expect this to be the year that Holmes becomes the preferred target, and while Ward is still a solid possession receiver, expect him to start losing targets and fantasy value.
28) Santana Moss
ADP: 71.2 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Much like the rest of the Redskins offense, Moss collapsed in the 2nd half of the season. Nearly identical to Lee Evans, he posted about half as many yards and only 1 TD after spending the first half of the season among the best fantasy WRs. The Redskins return the same talent on that side of the ball. If Campbell could finally put it together, Moss would be a WR2, but he can't be trusted as such given what we've seen thus far. I think the problem is that Campbell is more of a vertical QB stuck in the WCO offense that Zorn prefers. He should post WR3 numbers, but it's going to take a leap from Campbell to do much more than that.
29) Laveranues Coles
ADP: 74.0 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Coles is now the starting WR for the Bengals.
Overview: Coles is nearing that age where I stop drafting WRs as he's now 32, and he's also got a lengthy history of being banged up (but playing through most of it). Coles doesn't figure to age well given his injury history, but he's going to a great situation opposite Chad Ochocinco with Palmer as his QB. This is going to be a throwing team, and I think Coles has another borderline WR2/WR3 value. You could argue he's a touch undervalued, but I'd rather have him as my WR3.
30) Kevin Walter
ADP: 76.0 (7th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Walter came out of nowhere to be a part of the high flying Texans offense. He's in a perfect spot opposite Andre Johnson, with Owen Daniels working the middle of the field. Walter is a good bet to match his 2008 production in what projects to be a very good offense once again.
31) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 78.9 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: Berrian is at his best going deep, but he's not a reliable receiver going over the middle, which limits his upside. He struggled with Tavaris Jackson behind center for much of last season, so Rosenfels would be a welcome addition as he'll have no problem finding Berrian down the field. He'd go to slightly undervalued in this case, but I doubt you'll see Berrian making any huge jumps in production with either QB.
32) Torry Holt
ADP: 81.2 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Holt is now the starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Don't let the name fool you, Holt is not the same WR anymore. A fresh start in Jacksonville should help, but with the inability to separate like he used to, Holt has been reduced to a possession receiver. WR3 is essentially his ceiling, so pass him up for better upside picks.
33) Steve Breaston
ADP: 81.3 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Arizona is not going to repeat their passing proficiency from last season, so don't expect Breaston to post WR3 numbers like he's being drafted to do. He'll have some good weeks, but it's going to take a sudden Boldin trade or an injury for him to be startable in fantasy leagues. Think Brandon Stokley after Mannings record-breaking season.
34) Donnie Avery
ADP: 81.9 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, signed WR Ronald Curry.
Overview: Avery had a slight breakout in 2008, posting several decent games, but was mostly bench material. Fantasy nation expects him to take a step forward in 2009 and be an every week WR3, and I'm inclined to agree. With defenses loading up to stop Steven Jackson, and with the addition of Ronald Curry to man the possession receiver role, Avery just needs Bulger to go back to being a decent NFL QB to put up a WR3 season. There's some downside here, but that's the case with most WR3s. He's a decent one.
35) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens is the new starting QB, released WR Laveranues Coles.
Overview: I expected Cotchery to take a step forward in 2008, but it just never happened. Even when Favre was healthy, Coles performed just as well, and Cotchery never became the primary target. Cotchery will now draw the opposition's #1 CB each week in a run-first offense with an uncertain QB situation. I still believe in Cotchery's talent, but his surrounding situation isn't setting him up for a big season. I think a WR3 is just right for him, and he should be starting in your lineup most weeks. He still has some untapped upside.
36) Donald Driver
ADP: 93.3 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Driver, like several WRs at this stage in their career, has entered the avoid area. He posted yet another solid season last year, but combining his age with the young talent waiting behind him (Jordy Nelson, James Jones), Driver is hardly a sure bet to be an every week starter.
ADP: 64.7 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Holmes disappointed a bit in 2008 by not living up to the preseason hype. He never hit the 100 yard make in any game...prior to the Super Bowl where he blew up for 9/131 in his best game of the year. With Hines Ward starting his decline, Holmes is set to finally take over the primary WR responsibilities. Expect Holmes' best season to date and solid WR2 value.
26) Lance Moore
ADP: 66.0 (6th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Moore came out of nowhere to post an incredible season that included 10 TDs. I expect him to regress back to 5-6 TDs, but probably turn in his first 1,000 yard season this year. Keep in mind that with Colston returning and Shockey putting in a full offseason, Moore probably won't see as many targets, but he's an excellent fit for the Saints offense and will like turning in a low WR2/high WR3 season.
27) Hines Ward
ADP: 69.2 (6th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: One more shot with this. WR declines are a bit unpredictable, but there comes a certain point where I don't draft a WR anymore. Last season was just that for me with Ward, and while I missed a pretty solid season, I want my WR3s to have upside to be a WR2, or even a WR1 if I'm lucky. I expect this to be the year that Holmes becomes the preferred target, and while Ward is still a solid possession receiver, expect him to start losing targets and fantasy value.
28) Santana Moss
ADP: 71.2 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Much like the rest of the Redskins offense, Moss collapsed in the 2nd half of the season. Nearly identical to Lee Evans, he posted about half as many yards and only 1 TD after spending the first half of the season among the best fantasy WRs. The Redskins return the same talent on that side of the ball. If Campbell could finally put it together, Moss would be a WR2, but he can't be trusted as such given what we've seen thus far. I think the problem is that Campbell is more of a vertical QB stuck in the WCO offense that Zorn prefers. He should post WR3 numbers, but it's going to take a leap from Campbell to do much more than that.
29) Laveranues Coles
ADP: 74.0 (7th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Coles is now the starting WR for the Bengals.
Overview: Coles is nearing that age where I stop drafting WRs as he's now 32, and he's also got a lengthy history of being banged up (but playing through most of it). Coles doesn't figure to age well given his injury history, but he's going to a great situation opposite Chad Ochocinco with Palmer as his QB. This is going to be a throwing team, and I think Coles has another borderline WR2/WR3 value. You could argue he's a touch undervalued, but I'd rather have him as my WR3.
30) Kevin Walter
ADP: 76.0 (7th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Walter came out of nowhere to be a part of the high flying Texans offense. He's in a perfect spot opposite Andre Johnson, with Owen Daniels working the middle of the field. Walter is a good bet to match his 2008 production in what projects to be a very good offense once again.
31) Bernard Berrian
ADP: 78.9 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Sage Rosenfels, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: Berrian is at his best going deep, but he's not a reliable receiver going over the middle, which limits his upside. He struggled with Tavaris Jackson behind center for much of last season, so Rosenfels would be a welcome addition as he'll have no problem finding Berrian down the field. He'd go to slightly undervalued in this case, but I doubt you'll see Berrian making any huge jumps in production with either QB.
32) Torry Holt
ADP: 81.2 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Holt is now the starting WR for the Jaguars.
Overview: Don't let the name fool you, Holt is not the same WR anymore. A fresh start in Jacksonville should help, but with the inability to separate like he used to, Holt has been reduced to a possession receiver. WR3 is essentially his ceiling, so pass him up for better upside picks.
33) Steve Breaston
ADP: 81.3 (7th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Arizona is not going to repeat their passing proficiency from last season, so don't expect Breaston to post WR3 numbers like he's being drafted to do. He'll have some good weeks, but it's going to take a sudden Boldin trade or an injury for him to be startable in fantasy leagues. Think Brandon Stokley after Mannings record-breaking season.
34) Donnie Avery
ADP: 81.9 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt, signed WR Ronald Curry.
Overview: Avery had a slight breakout in 2008, posting several decent games, but was mostly bench material. Fantasy nation expects him to take a step forward in 2009 and be an every week WR3, and I'm inclined to agree. With defenses loading up to stop Steven Jackson, and with the addition of Ronald Curry to man the possession receiver role, Avery just needs Bulger to go back to being a decent NFL QB to put up a WR3 season. There's some downside here, but that's the case with most WR3s. He's a decent one.
35) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Mark Sanchez/Kellen Clemens is the new starting QB, released WR Laveranues Coles.
Overview: I expected Cotchery to take a step forward in 2008, but it just never happened. Even when Favre was healthy, Coles performed just as well, and Cotchery never became the primary target. Cotchery will now draw the opposition's #1 CB each week in a run-first offense with an uncertain QB situation. I still believe in Cotchery's talent, but his surrounding situation isn't setting him up for a big season. I think a WR3 is just right for him, and he should be starting in your lineup most weeks. He still has some untapped upside.
36) Donald Driver
ADP: 93.3 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Driver, like several WRs at this stage in their career, has entered the avoid area. He posted yet another solid season last year, but combining his age with the young talent waiting behind him (Jordy Nelson, James Jones), Driver is hardly a sure bet to be an every week starter.
2009 WR2 Value Analysis
13) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 32.5 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Marshall avoided a suspension, but he's admitted to not knowing the playbook, and Orton's weaker arm plays much better to Royal's strengths than Marshall's. I think Marshall will still post solid numbers, but he's started slipping to the 5th and 6th rounds as people are getting concerned with how he'll produce this season. He's a fringe WR2/WR3, but way too talented to avoid completely. I think the 5th round sounds about right.
14) Terrell Owens
ADP: 33.3 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Owens is now on the Bills.
Overview: It looks like fantasy nation is still regarding Owens too high. He'll be moving from a great offense to an uncertain one, and from a better QB to a worse QB. While Trent Edwards is solid, he lacks the big arm that Tony Romo had. He'll also be fighting for targets with Lee Evans opposite him. Owens doesn't figure to fall too far even at the age of 35, but do keep in mind that it's possible his age could catch up to him, although he keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Decline is still inevitable, and his possible turf toe is a huge drain. Let someone else take a chance on him.
15) T.J. Houshmandzedeh
ADP: 34.2 (3rd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Housh now starts at WR for the Seahawks.
Overview: TJ moves from Cincy to Seattle where he will be a #1 receiver for the first time in his career, so he'll be facing #1 corners the majority of the time. Furthermore, pass happy Mike Holmgren has left, leaving Jim Mora Jr. to run the show. Mora Jr. last coached in Atlanta where he ran a run heavy zone blocking system, but keep in mind he had Vick as his QB. Housh put up good numbers last year despite an abysmal QB situation, so the move to a hopefully healthy Hasselbeck is an upgrade. He should get plenty of targets and post WR2 numbers when all is said and done, but there's some downside here.
16) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 45.9 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: A full round until the next WR is off the board. Edwards mauled his owners last year thanks to horrendous QB play and a ton of dropped passes when the ball actually got to him. He's way too talented to do that again, and you can bet the lost season humbled him a bit, hopefully at least. Hopefully Quinn will take the starting QB job and run. Quinn doesn't possess the cannon that Derek Anderson does, but he's a smarter QB who will make less mistakes to cost the offense. Losing Winslow and Stallworth hurt, leaving him with little talent to keep defenses off of him, but he should make up for that with a ton of targets. He should regroup this year and could post borderline WR1 numbers, making him a solid gamble as a WR2. Just understand that there's downside here as well as he continues to drop passes.
17) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.0 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Williams is now the #1 WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: This guy. He bombed my prediction of a bounce back season last year, got traded to Dallas, and then was mostly ignored in favor of Owens and Witten. As much as I'd like to throw him to the wolves, this is a put up or shut up season for Williams. After being mired in Detroit (and actually producing fairly well there until last year), Williams is now set to be the man in Dallas for a great offense. I think all of us are aware of what risk this guy brings to the table, but he's never had a better situation than this year, so if he's going to make something of himself, it's going to be this season. I'm willing to give him one more shot.
18) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB controversy.
Overview: Bryant finally put his talent to use last season, posting the best season of his career and helping carry several fantasy teams into the playoffs. The bad news is that Gruden and his creative offensive mind are gone while defensive minded (and likely running heavy) Raheem Morris is the new head coach. With a great offensive system gone, a potentially volatile QB situation, and even a self-proclaimed statement that he won't be as good as last season, the warning signs are there for those who choose to draft Bryant this season. I won't.
19) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson had his breakthrough campaign last season as Chris Chambers went down with an injury, and LT's ineffectiveness forced the Chargers to ride the arm of Phillip Rivers as opposed to the running game. With only 59 receptions, Jackson is more prone than most to clunkers as he was reliant on big plays. Much like Greg Jennings last year, something has to give. Like I mentioned with Phillip Rivers, I think defenses will play SD differently as they caught many defenses surprised with their constant deep throws, and defenses will adjust accordingly this season. All in all, I expect more catches, less big plays, and about the same numbers from Jackson this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 52.4 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is the new starting WR for the Colts.
Overview: Gonzalez's time is now. He will replace Marvin Harrison as the new outside receiver for the Colts this season, and with that should come a career year. Gonzalez certainly doesn't possess the same talent as Harrison, but should benefit from a lot more targets and also the defensive attention that will be focused on Reggie Wayne. He's a smart receiver who runs good routes, so he fits great into the Colts offensive system. He should post WR2 numbers for a good offense this season.
21) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 54.0 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Carson Palmer returns.
Overview: After Palmer went down, the Cincy offense was introduced to rock bottom. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't throw the ball past 10 yards, Ochocinco was more interested in making headlines with his mouth than his play, and he turned in the worst season since his rookie year. With Palmer returning and an iffy running game, the stage is set for Ochocinco to return to fantasy relevance. At 31 years old, he's certainly not washed up, and he could approach WR1 numbers again this season. I believe he's a risk worth taking this year.
22) Eddie Royal
ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Royal exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2008, and he's set up for a very nice season in 2009. With new coach McDaniels running the offense, and the accurate Kyle Orton at QB, Royal will be taking on Wes Welker's role, but offers more explosiveness than Welker does. I think taking Welker's 2008 season as a baseline with perhaps a couple extra TDs is a perfect example of what Royal can put up this season, meaning he'll be a very good WR2.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 60.1 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Evans started off on fire in 2008, showing the consistency his game had been missing since coming into the league, but then he went missing in the 2nd half, posting exactly half as many yards as he put up in the 1st half with no TDs. Buffalo's passing game fell apart, and he got zero help from the crap WRs that Buffalo lined up opposite him. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give Evans as many single teamed opportunities as he's seen in his first 5 seasons combined. Despite now sharing targets with Owens, I expect Evans to take a step forward and post some of the best numbers of his career. Buffalo figures to pass a bit more with Owens around, and Evans will be open more this season. While they won't pass constantly, I expect Evans to post a very nice season, and he could even post better numbers than Owens.
24) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 61.3 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson showed game breaking skills in his rookie season, although he might be most remembered for his not-quite-a-TD celebration that made his owners across fantasy nation about as red-faced as you could possibly be. He was a solid WR3, but he wore down in the final month...not uncommon for rookies. Jackson figures to take a step forward this season, and adding onto his 2 TD total from last season would be nice for his owners. I think with Philly likely to pass as much as ever this season, Jackson is in for a good year, but with the spread-the-wealth offense that they employ, his upside is limited to a good WR2 as opposed to a potential WR1.
ADP: 32.5 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Marshall avoided a suspension, but he's admitted to not knowing the playbook, and Orton's weaker arm plays much better to Royal's strengths than Marshall's. I think Marshall will still post solid numbers, but he's started slipping to the 5th and 6th rounds as people are getting concerned with how he'll produce this season. He's a fringe WR2/WR3, but way too talented to avoid completely. I think the 5th round sounds about right.
14) Terrell Owens
ADP: 33.3 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Owens is now on the Bills.
Overview: It looks like fantasy nation is still regarding Owens too high. He'll be moving from a great offense to an uncertain one, and from a better QB to a worse QB. While Trent Edwards is solid, he lacks the big arm that Tony Romo had. He'll also be fighting for targets with Lee Evans opposite him. Owens doesn't figure to fall too far even at the age of 35, but do keep in mind that it's possible his age could catch up to him, although he keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Decline is still inevitable, and his possible turf toe is a huge drain. Let someone else take a chance on him.
15) T.J. Houshmandzedeh
ADP: 34.2 (3rd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Housh now starts at WR for the Seahawks.
Overview: TJ moves from Cincy to Seattle where he will be a #1 receiver for the first time in his career, so he'll be facing #1 corners the majority of the time. Furthermore, pass happy Mike Holmgren has left, leaving Jim Mora Jr. to run the show. Mora Jr. last coached in Atlanta where he ran a run heavy zone blocking system, but keep in mind he had Vick as his QB. Housh put up good numbers last year despite an abysmal QB situation, so the move to a hopefully healthy Hasselbeck is an upgrade. He should get plenty of targets and post WR2 numbers when all is said and done, but there's some downside here.
16) Braylon Edwards
ADP: 45.9 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: A full round until the next WR is off the board. Edwards mauled his owners last year thanks to horrendous QB play and a ton of dropped passes when the ball actually got to him. He's way too talented to do that again, and you can bet the lost season humbled him a bit, hopefully at least. Hopefully Quinn will take the starting QB job and run. Quinn doesn't possess the cannon that Derek Anderson does, but he's a smarter QB who will make less mistakes to cost the offense. Losing Winslow and Stallworth hurt, leaving him with little talent to keep defenses off of him, but he should make up for that with a ton of targets. He should regroup this year and could post borderline WR1 numbers, making him a solid gamble as a WR2. Just understand that there's downside here as well as he continues to drop passes.
17) Roy Williams
ADP: 47.0 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Williams is now the #1 WR for the Cowboys.
Overview: This guy. He bombed my prediction of a bounce back season last year, got traded to Dallas, and then was mostly ignored in favor of Owens and Witten. As much as I'd like to throw him to the wolves, this is a put up or shut up season for Williams. After being mired in Detroit (and actually producing fairly well there until last year), Williams is now set to be the man in Dallas for a great offense. I think all of us are aware of what risk this guy brings to the table, but he's never had a better situation than this year, so if he's going to make something of himself, it's going to be this season. I'm willing to give him one more shot.
18) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 47.7 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB controversy.
Overview: Bryant finally put his talent to use last season, posting the best season of his career and helping carry several fantasy teams into the playoffs. The bad news is that Gruden and his creative offensive mind are gone while defensive minded (and likely running heavy) Raheem Morris is the new head coach. With a great offensive system gone, a potentially volatile QB situation, and even a self-proclaimed statement that he won't be as good as last season, the warning signs are there for those who choose to draft Bryant this season. I won't.
19) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson had his breakthrough campaign last season as Chris Chambers went down with an injury, and LT's ineffectiveness forced the Chargers to ride the arm of Phillip Rivers as opposed to the running game. With only 59 receptions, Jackson is more prone than most to clunkers as he was reliant on big plays. Much like Greg Jennings last year, something has to give. Like I mentioned with Phillip Rivers, I think defenses will play SD differently as they caught many defenses surprised with their constant deep throws, and defenses will adjust accordingly this season. All in all, I expect more catches, less big plays, and about the same numbers from Jackson this year.
20) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 52.4 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Gonzalez is the new starting WR for the Colts.
Overview: Gonzalez's time is now. He will replace Marvin Harrison as the new outside receiver for the Colts this season, and with that should come a career year. Gonzalez certainly doesn't possess the same talent as Harrison, but should benefit from a lot more targets and also the defensive attention that will be focused on Reggie Wayne. He's a smart receiver who runs good routes, so he fits great into the Colts offensive system. He should post WR2 numbers for a good offense this season.
21) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 54.0 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Carson Palmer returns.
Overview: After Palmer went down, the Cincy offense was introduced to rock bottom. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't throw the ball past 10 yards, Ochocinco was more interested in making headlines with his mouth than his play, and he turned in the worst season since his rookie year. With Palmer returning and an iffy running game, the stage is set for Ochocinco to return to fantasy relevance. At 31 years old, he's certainly not washed up, and he could approach WR1 numbers again this season. I believe he's a risk worth taking this year.
22) Eddie Royal
ADP: 58.6 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: New QB Kyle Orton.
Overview: Royal exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2008, and he's set up for a very nice season in 2009. With new coach McDaniels running the offense, and the accurate Kyle Orton at QB, Royal will be taking on Wes Welker's role, but offers more explosiveness than Welker does. I think taking Welker's 2008 season as a baseline with perhaps a couple extra TDs is a perfect example of what Royal can put up this season, meaning he'll be a very good WR2.
23) Lee Evans
ADP: 60.1 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Evans started off on fire in 2008, showing the consistency his game had been missing since coming into the league, but then he went missing in the 2nd half, posting exactly half as many yards as he put up in the 1st half with no TDs. Buffalo's passing game fell apart, and he got zero help from the crap WRs that Buffalo lined up opposite him. Enter Terrell Owens, who will give Evans as many single teamed opportunities as he's seen in his first 5 seasons combined. Despite now sharing targets with Owens, I expect Evans to take a step forward and post some of the best numbers of his career. Buffalo figures to pass a bit more with Owens around, and Evans will be open more this season. While they won't pass constantly, I expect Evans to post a very nice season, and he could even post better numbers than Owens.
24) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 61.3 (6th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jackson showed game breaking skills in his rookie season, although he might be most remembered for his not-quite-a-TD celebration that made his owners across fantasy nation about as red-faced as you could possibly be. He was a solid WR3, but he wore down in the final month...not uncommon for rookies. Jackson figures to take a step forward this season, and adding onto his 2 TD total from last season would be nice for his owners. I think with Philly likely to pass as much as ever this season, Jackson is in for a good year, but with the spread-the-wealth offense that they employ, his upside is limited to a good WR2 as opposed to a potential WR1.
2009 WR1 Value Analysis
1) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.
2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.
3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.
Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.
4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?
Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.
5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season. I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.
6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.
7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.
8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.
9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.
10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.
11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel
Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before. He's a great fit as a WR2.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.
Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.
ADP: 8.0 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Thanks to a non-productive running game, Arizona's passing attack took off last year, and Fitzgerald turned into the best WR in football. Shedding some weight in an effort to gain some speed paid off as Fitz turned in his best season to date. His hands and body control are among the best ever. All that praise aside, I hate taking a WR in the first round unless I absolutely love a RB that I can get in the 2nd. I think taking him over Chris Johnson and Frank Gore is a mistake. Balancing that out is the return of the entire offense and also the rumored maturation of Matt Leinart, which would help offset a Kurt Warner injury. Boldin stays, and these two feed off of each other, which is a good thing for Fitz. Sure, he takes some targets and some TDs, but he completely balances the D as you can't focus on one. Fitz is one of the safest WRs you can take.
2) Andre Johnson
ADP: 11.1 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Everything looks to be in order for AJ to repeat his breakthrough 2008 season. After spending years underutilized catching passes from OMGPASSRUSH David Carr, Schaub and the rest of the Houston offense finally allowed AJ to put his full talent on display. They return everyone, and continuity is always a good thing. Walter and Daniels help keep total D attention off of AJ, and Slaton gave them a respected running game. He's a good last 1st/early 2nd round pick, and along with Fitz, one of the safest WRs you can draft.
3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.7 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: QB Tom Brady returns.
Overview: Moss suffered a bit when Tom Brady initially went down, but once Matt Cassel settled in, Moss went back to being one of the elite WRs in football. Tom Brady returns, which should help in the consistency department, but like I mentioned with Brady, it could be a bit of a slow start while Brady re-acclimates himself to the NFL speed after missing the 2008 season. Moss is 32 now, and once receivers start hitting that age, decline usually sets in a bit as well. Still, all things considered, it looks like another great year for Moss, but there's something about him that will make me personally avoid him at this price.
4) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: New starting QB Matthew Stafford?
Overview: Calvin Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2008 as one of the elite NFL WRs, probably a year after people expected him to. The most impressive part of this was the numbers he put up with guys like Dan Orlovsky and Duante Culpepper at QB. The problem I see here is that I don't believe that is sustainable. Either Duante Culpepper or Matthew Stafford is going to start at QB this year, and combined with a shaky offensive line and more defensive attention, CJ is going to have a very hard time repeating his breakthrough season. I hate to disregard his elite talent, but he's going to have a tough time repeating with everything that is working against him, and if I'm going to take a WR this high, I want a sure thing.
5) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Wayne was a bit of a disappointment in 2008 as his numbers fell short of his draft status. It's possible he didn't know how to handle the added attention as Marvin Harrison became an afterthought for most defenses, but the good news this year is that Anthony Gonzalez will step in to the starting role, and honestly, he's probably someone the defenses will have to keep track of more than they did Marvin last year. Wayne will remain the primary deep threat, and the Colts offense projects to be just fine, so expect Wayne to bounce back into the top 5 WRs this season. I'd take him 3rd over both Moss and Johnson.
6) Steve Smith
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: It's pretty amazing that Steve Smith finished in the top 5 fantasy WRs last season despite missing 2 games due to a team-imposed suspension. He was his usual beast self on the field, blowing by defenders and making tough catches all season long. I expect a bit of regression in 2009 as Delhomme and his WR running mate Muhammad both decline. Smith is still an excellent WR, but I don't think he'll repeat his same pace from 2009.
7) Roddy White
ADP: 22.6 (2nd round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Like Calvin Johnson above him, White also exploded onto the scene in 2008, and he impressively did such with a rookie QB at the helm. With Matt Ryan expected to take another step forward this year, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez to help take attention away from him, White looks like a safe bet to stay in the WR1s this season.
8) Anquan Boldin
ADP: 23.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Boldin exploded like the rest of the Arizona offense, and he was the #1 fantasy WR until yet another leg injury derailed his season, which lingered into the playoffs and sapped his effectiveness. By now we know what to expect from Boldin...he's a top notch fantasy WR when he's healthy, but he's going to miss games every season. Given that fact, I can't recommend him as a WR1. He's best as a high upside WR2 and not your star WR1 thanks to the yearly injury problem.
9) Greg Jennings
ADP: 24.2 (2nd round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Jennings totally surprised me, and it was something I should have seen. I had pointed out that his 2007 season was a fluke given how often he scored 10+ TDs on 50ish receptions. Given how much I liked Aaron Rodgers and how I thought Donald Driver would decilne, it should have been obvious that Jennings would take a step forward. Given the explosive nature of the Packers passing offense, the continued decline of Donald Driver, and the emergence of Jennings last year, it stands to reason that Jennings to continue to perform as a WR1.
10) Marques Colston
ADP: 25.7 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Colston...Boldin, is there really any difference? Both are difference making fantasy WR1s when on the field, but they're often missing time with various injuries and can't seem to stay healthy and effective for 16 games. Fantasy owners are back to drafting Colston as a WR1 despite this continued theme, so don't make the same mistake. I'm not denying Colston's talent and productivity, but his injury concerns are real, and I can't take a WR1 that has these problems. He's best fit as a WR2 beacuse you're drafting him to play 15-16 games.
11) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 28.8 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Matt Cassel
Overview: Honestly, I'm torn here. Before I got the ADP report, I thought Bowe would be an awesome WR2, but it turns out he's being drafted as a WR1. So, despite not posting WR1 totals his first two seasons, he's being drafted as one. He's also going to be working with a new QB in Cassel, and with the loss of Tony Gonzalez, he doesn't have a good complement at either the WR or TE position. Furthermore, the offense doesn't project to score much. Despite all of this, I believe in Bowe's talent, and he must just be the most targeted WR in the NFL in 2009. I think he'll post fringe WR1 value, but understand you're taking a risk drafting him this high given he's never done it before. He's a great fit as a WR2.
12) Wes Welker
ADP: 30.8 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: The return of QB Tom Brady.
Overview: Did people not learn? Welker posted almost the same amount of yards in 2008 as 2007, but lost 5 TDs off his total. His upside are his stats from 2007, and he wasn't even a WR1 in that year. You're going to get consistency, but you're not actually getting a WR1 despite drafting him as such. Pass for better options.
2009 RB5 Value Analysis
49) Ahmad Bradshaw
ADP: 141.1 (12th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Bradshaw is the new backup RB for the Giants.
Overview: After what Ward accomplished as the primary backup and change-of-pace RB for Brandon Jacobs last year, it's pretty shocking to see his heir apparent being drafted as only a fringe RB4. Now I'm not saying I expect Bradshaw to duplicate Ward's numbers, but he will certainly get a similar amount of touches, and he'll probably end up with a few starts behind the injury-prone Jacobs. Bradshaw is honestly a RB3 candidate this season as Jacobs running-mate behind a strong offensive line on a run-first team.
50) Correll Buckhalter
ADP: 152.3 (13th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Buckhalter is the new backup RB for the Broncos.
Overview: Buckhalter proved last season that he was still plenty capable of being a solid RB at the NFL level while filling in for several starts behind Brian Westbrook. His all-around game fits nicely into the new Denver system, and I expect him to carve out a lesser role behind Knowshon Moreno and fellow veteran LaMont Jordan. He's not going to see a bunch of carries unless Denver cuts ties with another veteran, plus 2nd year RB Ryan Torain has an outside chance of making the roster as well. Sounds like NE's backfield, no? Buckhalter is an OK RB4/5.
51) Sammy Morris
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Morris filled in capably for New England last season after Maroney disappointed yet again, but he suffered an injury while slashing Denver in the first game as the primary ball carrier, and when he returned from that injury a month later, he mostly split carries with Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, etc. Morris is a 32 year old veteran unlikely to provide any significant value to your team, but he's an OK guy to stash for depth to start the season.
52) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 159.3 (14th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Maroney has gone from fringe 1st round pick, to 4th round pick, to endgame RB. That all being said, his talent hasn't gone anywhere, despite the annoying injuries he has suffered in his career thus far. Maroney will likely be given the chance to win the 1st/2nd down RB position for the Patriots this year, and you can be sure that with the other RBs on the roster (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk) all in their 30s, Belichick wants nothing more than for Maroney to finally cash in on his talent. He is an excellent RB4/5 that is the perfect example what you should shoot for with your RB depth.
53) Jerious Norwood
ADP: 163.1 (14th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: In accordance with me listing Michael Turner as a huge injury risk, Norwood is a perfect high upside deep RB pick as well. He's nothing more than a little used change-of-pace RB until that happens as the Falcons will stay with Turner as the primary ball carrier, but if he gets hurt, Norwood will start. He sports a very different game from Turner, and the focus of the offense would likely shift to the passing game, but he would start and present an explosive option in the backfield with 15-18 carries a game. Must-have for Turner owners, good RB4 for non-Turner owners.
54) Shonn Greene
ADP: 168.3 (14th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Greene is the new backup RB for the Jets.
Overview: As I mentioned with both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington above, the Jets drafted Greene with the intention of making him Jones' successor. Jones is a candidate to break down this season, so Greene definitely has some upside as the projected lead RB of the Jets committee should that happen. He's best fit as an RB5 as he has no role without an injury, but he's a solid upside pick this late.
55) Jamaal Charles
ADP: 170.7 (15th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Charles wasn't given much of a chance last season, but he did impress with a 18/106 line against TB in his lone start as the primary ball carrier last year. Even when LJ went down, an ankle injury limited how much he was used. With KC moving to a shotgun based-offense under new offensive boss Todd Haley, Charles should see the field plenty as he's far better in the passing game than LJ. Expect him to pick up a couple starts this year, making him a good RB4/5 pick.
56) Justin Fargas
ADP: 175.5 (15th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: There's information flying back and forth as to exactly who will start for the Raiders this year, but even if McFadden doesn't win the job and Fargas somehow starts in week 1, don't expect it to last long. The Raiders would be a better team using the far more talented combo of McFadden and Michael Bush...which means Fargas will start 16 games and see 300 carries. Add the health risk on top of it, and you just don't have much going for you by picking Fargas. He's an OK RB5 if you think he'll start a few games, but he's the third best RB on the Raiders roster.
57) Jerome Harrison
ADP: 176.6 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: With only an aging Jamal Lewis ahead of him, Harrison joins the theme of explosive RB5 options this season behind starters with injury concerns. The Browns offense doesn't project to do a whole lot this year, but Harrison could have some value if Jamal Lewis gets injured as he'll likely produce in the passing game as a change-of-pace option, but I'd rather have James Davis as he has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland.
58) Tashard Choice
ADP: 192.4 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Choice proved he could play at the NFL level last year while filling in for the injured Marion Barber and Felix Jones, showing his solid all-around game. Unfortunately for him and his solid skill set, he's still the 3rd most talented runner on the team. He'll need an injury to matter, but that's certainly not out of the question. He's a good RB5.
59) Michael Bush
ADP: 192.9 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: As mentioned above with Fargas, the Raiders RB depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment. However, despite being 3rd on the depth chart at the moment, Bush is defintely the 2nd most talented runner on the team, possessing good speed and hands for a RB his size. He has a chance to push Fargas off of the roster, and he's an excellent RB5. He could approach RB3 numbers if he's a part of a committee with McFadden, and even RB2 numbers should McFadden get hurt.
60) Ladell Betts
ADP: 204.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Betts has proven to be a solid backup RB in the NFL, and a good spot-starter when Portis has gotten injured in front of him. With Portis starting to age and an injury risk, Betts is a must-have for Portis owners, and also a solid RB5 for anyone else.
Other RBs To Keep An Eye On:
James Davis - Davis has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland, and there's even a chance he'll overtake Jamal Lewis as the starter. He's been one of the most impressive runners in the preseason, and he certainly offers more explosion than Lewis does. A great RB5 stash.
Brandon Jackson - GB's offense will be explosive, and should something happen to Ryan Grant, Jackson would likely benefit. He hasn't shown much yet, but any true backup RB is worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Jones/Rashad Jennings - Whoever wins the backup battle behind first year starter MJD will be worth owning. Keep an eye on the preseason to see how this battle unfolds.
ADP: 141.1 (12th round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Bradshaw is the new backup RB for the Giants.
Overview: After what Ward accomplished as the primary backup and change-of-pace RB for Brandon Jacobs last year, it's pretty shocking to see his heir apparent being drafted as only a fringe RB4. Now I'm not saying I expect Bradshaw to duplicate Ward's numbers, but he will certainly get a similar amount of touches, and he'll probably end up with a few starts behind the injury-prone Jacobs. Bradshaw is honestly a RB3 candidate this season as Jacobs running-mate behind a strong offensive line on a run-first team.
50) Correll Buckhalter
ADP: 152.3 (13th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Buckhalter is the new backup RB for the Broncos.
Overview: Buckhalter proved last season that he was still plenty capable of being a solid RB at the NFL level while filling in for several starts behind Brian Westbrook. His all-around game fits nicely into the new Denver system, and I expect him to carve out a lesser role behind Knowshon Moreno and fellow veteran LaMont Jordan. He's not going to see a bunch of carries unless Denver cuts ties with another veteran, plus 2nd year RB Ryan Torain has an outside chance of making the roster as well. Sounds like NE's backfield, no? Buckhalter is an OK RB4/5.
51) Sammy Morris
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Morris filled in capably for New England last season after Maroney disappointed yet again, but he suffered an injury while slashing Denver in the first game as the primary ball carrier, and when he returned from that injury a month later, he mostly split carries with Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, etc. Morris is a 32 year old veteran unlikely to provide any significant value to your team, but he's an OK guy to stash for depth to start the season.
52) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 159.3 (14th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Maroney has gone from fringe 1st round pick, to 4th round pick, to endgame RB. That all being said, his talent hasn't gone anywhere, despite the annoying injuries he has suffered in his career thus far. Maroney will likely be given the chance to win the 1st/2nd down RB position for the Patriots this year, and you can be sure that with the other RBs on the roster (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk) all in their 30s, Belichick wants nothing more than for Maroney to finally cash in on his talent. He is an excellent RB4/5 that is the perfect example what you should shoot for with your RB depth.
53) Jerious Norwood
ADP: 163.1 (14th round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: In accordance with me listing Michael Turner as a huge injury risk, Norwood is a perfect high upside deep RB pick as well. He's nothing more than a little used change-of-pace RB until that happens as the Falcons will stay with Turner as the primary ball carrier, but if he gets hurt, Norwood will start. He sports a very different game from Turner, and the focus of the offense would likely shift to the passing game, but he would start and present an explosive option in the backfield with 15-18 carries a game. Must-have for Turner owners, good RB4 for non-Turner owners.
54) Shonn Greene
ADP: 168.3 (14th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Greene is the new backup RB for the Jets.
Overview: As I mentioned with both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington above, the Jets drafted Greene with the intention of making him Jones' successor. Jones is a candidate to break down this season, so Greene definitely has some upside as the projected lead RB of the Jets committee should that happen. He's best fit as an RB5 as he has no role without an injury, but he's a solid upside pick this late.
55) Jamaal Charles
ADP: 170.7 (15th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Charles wasn't given much of a chance last season, but he did impress with a 18/106 line against TB in his lone start as the primary ball carrier last year. Even when LJ went down, an ankle injury limited how much he was used. With KC moving to a shotgun based-offense under new offensive boss Todd Haley, Charles should see the field plenty as he's far better in the passing game than LJ. Expect him to pick up a couple starts this year, making him a good RB4/5 pick.
56) Justin Fargas
ADP: 175.5 (15th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: There's information flying back and forth as to exactly who will start for the Raiders this year, but even if McFadden doesn't win the job and Fargas somehow starts in week 1, don't expect it to last long. The Raiders would be a better team using the far more talented combo of McFadden and Michael Bush...which means Fargas will start 16 games and see 300 carries. Add the health risk on top of it, and you just don't have much going for you by picking Fargas. He's an OK RB5 if you think he'll start a few games, but he's the third best RB on the Raiders roster.
57) Jerome Harrison
ADP: 176.6 (15th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: With only an aging Jamal Lewis ahead of him, Harrison joins the theme of explosive RB5 options this season behind starters with injury concerns. The Browns offense doesn't project to do a whole lot this year, but Harrison could have some value if Jamal Lewis gets injured as he'll likely produce in the passing game as a change-of-pace option, but I'd rather have James Davis as he has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland.
58) Tashard Choice
ADP: 192.4 (Not always drafted)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Choice proved he could play at the NFL level last year while filling in for the injured Marion Barber and Felix Jones, showing his solid all-around game. Unfortunately for him and his solid skill set, he's still the 3rd most talented runner on the team. He'll need an injury to matter, but that's certainly not out of the question. He's a good RB5.
59) Michael Bush
ADP: 192.9 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: As mentioned above with Fargas, the Raiders RB depth chart is a bit of a mess at the moment. However, despite being 3rd on the depth chart at the moment, Bush is defintely the 2nd most talented runner on the team, possessing good speed and hands for a RB his size. He has a chance to push Fargas off of the roster, and he's an excellent RB5. He could approach RB3 numbers if he's a part of a committee with McFadden, and even RB2 numbers should McFadden get hurt.
60) Ladell Betts
ADP: 204.3 (Not always drafted)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Betts has proven to be a solid backup RB in the NFL, and a good spot-starter when Portis has gotten injured in front of him. With Portis starting to age and an injury risk, Betts is a must-have for Portis owners, and also a solid RB5 for anyone else.
Other RBs To Keep An Eye On:
James Davis - Davis has emerged as the backup to own in Cleveland, and there's even a chance he'll overtake Jamal Lewis as the starter. He's been one of the most impressive runners in the preseason, and he certainly offers more explosion than Lewis does. A great RB5 stash.
Brandon Jackson - GB's offense will be explosive, and should something happen to Ryan Grant, Jackson would likely benefit. He hasn't shown much yet, but any true backup RB is worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Jones/Rashad Jennings - Whoever wins the backup battle behind first year starter MJD will be worth owning. Keep an eye on the preseason to see how this battle unfolds.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
2009 RB4 Value Analysis
37) Tim Hightower
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Chris Wells.
Overview: Despite all of Edgerrin James' struggles during the regular season and Hightower's ascension to the primary ball carrier for Arizona, Hightower completely fell on his face when given the opportunity. He teased his owners with a breakout 22/109/1 TD in his first game as the starter against STL, but then couldn't average 3 yards a carry for the rest of his time as the starter as Arizona eventually abandoned the run. Hightower will still maintain his passing down work, and he has fought hard to fend off talented, but injury prone rookie Chris Wells. Hightower has reportedly improved his decision-making, so we'll see if that translates to Sundays. He's a solid RB4.
38) Leon Washington
ADP: 98.4 (9th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released QB Brett Favre, drafted RB Shonn Greene.
Overview: Unfortunately for Leon Washington, the Jets drafted Thomas Jones' heir apparent in Shonn Greene. Washington will maintain the exact same role as last year, but odds are that Greene will step in as the starter should Thomas Jones get hurt, so he doesn't possess the same upside as last year. However, with the Jets choosing between the unimpressive Kellen Clemens and rookie Jonathan Sanchez at QB, their strong offensive line, and their strong defense, the Jets are looking like a mirror image of the 2008 Ravens...coincidence as the Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the Jets coach? Probably not. Washington should post erratic weekly totals, but he will probably get more touches this year as they'll utilize his skills more and also run the ball as much as anyone in the league. I think he's a solid RB3.
39) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Mendenhall has quite a bit of upside for being drafted as a RB4. Willie Parker could be breaking down in front of him after 2 huge workloads in 2006 and 2007, and he'll likely be in on the money downs (passing, goal line) along with being a change-of-pace runner. Parker would have to get hurt to lose his starting job, but Mendenhall projects as the more valuable Steelers RB despite the lesser price tag. However, Mendenhall has shown little on the field as he continues to look like an ordinary RB. The shine of his upside is fading, although taking him as an RB4 could be worth it.
40) Le'Ron McClain
ADP: 101.8 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: McClain turned in one of the most surprising seasons of any RB last year. After starting the year as a mostly unknown FB, McClain ascended to starting RB and became the face of the Ravens smashmouth offensive style. McClain projects to take a backseat to Ray Rice this season, and he's actually moved back to the fullback position. Ray Rice looks like the projected goal line runner now, leaving McClain with no fantasy valued. He'll need an injury in front of him to matter again.
41) Fred Jackson
ADP: 106.1 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension for RB Marshawn Lynch, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Fred Jackson went from non-descript backup for a great young talented RB to an annoying drain on Lynch's carries. A coaching staff favorite, Jackson will get a 3 game stint as a starter during Lynch's suspension, and if he's as good as he showed last year, he'll definitely carve out a bigger role as a platoon-mate for Lynch. He's a definite RB2 for the first 3 weeks while Lynch is suspended, but he will go back to more of a RB3 as Lynch is also too talented to leave on the bench, and Lynch will almost certainly regain his starting position.
42) Earnest Graham
ADP: 107.0 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Graham clearly annoyed fantasy owners last year. After posting RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he started the year inexplicable sharing carries with veteran Warrick Dunn, and then when he finally start getting primary RB carries, he went down with an ankle injury and was lost for the rest of the season. Tampa signed Derrick Ward, and with Graham projects to be a lesser part of a RB committee. That all being said, Tampa is set to run plenty this year, Ward has had numerous injuries in his career, and Graham will certainly be on the field each game. He's a solid RB4.
43) LeSean McCoy
ADP: 107.1 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McCoy is the new backup RB for Philadelphia, released RB Correll Buckhalter.
Overview: McCoy, a scatback out of Pittsburgh, compares favorably to Brian Westbrook. He's very quick, excellent in the passing game, and just like Westbrook, he'll struggle running between the tackles to start his career. It remains to be seen what version of Brian Westbrook the Eagles will get after serious offseason ankle surgery as he turns 30, so McCoy could play more than the Eagles would prefer depending on how Westbrook holds up. His only competition is Lorenzo Booker, who's a lesser version of the same style of RB. He's an upside pick and a must-have for Westbrook owners.
44) Julius Jones
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Edgerrin James, released RB Maurice Morris.
Overview: Their offensive line sucks, they just signed Edge, and Julius Jones is an average talent at best. This is not the recipe for fantasy success. Avoid.
45) Fred Taylor
ADP: 118.6 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Taylor is part of the clustered NE backfield.
Overview: Taylor showed that he still has some tread on his tires left last season, but he's on his last legs and is joining a very crowded NE backfield. With Maroney likely to start and potentially dominate early down work, there's very little upside here, and Taylor's liabilities in the passing game won't give him much value at all. Pass.
46) Chester Taylor
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Taylor lost carries last year, but he still played essentially the same role he always has since Adrian Peterson arrived. He's the exact same player that you drafted last year, and he'll come at a cheaper price. He's a must-have for Peterson owners, and he's a great RB4 even for non Peterson owners.
47) Ricky Williams
ADP: 125.5 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ricky Williams proved that he still had something left in his tank last season, posting a solid 4.1 YPC as the lesser half of a committee with Ronnie Brown. However, like I mentioned with Ronnie Brown, I expect Brown to take another step forward in the committee as he's another year removed from his ACL injury. This will decrease the amount of time that Williams sees the field, but with no true young backup on the roster, expect Williams to replace Brown as the primary ball carrier should Brown get hurt again.
48) Ray Rice
ADP: 126.4 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Rice is the new starting RB for the Ravens.
Overview: Here's one of the great sleepers in the early ADP reports. Much like Favre at the QB position, I expect his ADP to rise once more people realize that he is the starting RB for the Ravens. Rice has even played on goal line situations in the preseason, and with McClain's move back to fullback, Rice appears to have won the goal line back. He's also the best receiver at the RB position on the team, so along with being the lead back for carries, he'll also lead the RBs in receptions. Everyone expects Baltimore to continue running quite a bit, so expect Rice to approach RB2 value this season. Rice has ascended to the 5th/6th round territory where he's still a fine value. He's still a very good RB3, and perhaps even a RB2 if you're loading up at other positions.
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Chris Wells.
Overview: Despite all of Edgerrin James' struggles during the regular season and Hightower's ascension to the primary ball carrier for Arizona, Hightower completely fell on his face when given the opportunity. He teased his owners with a breakout 22/109/1 TD in his first game as the starter against STL, but then couldn't average 3 yards a carry for the rest of his time as the starter as Arizona eventually abandoned the run. Hightower will still maintain his passing down work, and he has fought hard to fend off talented, but injury prone rookie Chris Wells. Hightower has reportedly improved his decision-making, so we'll see if that translates to Sundays. He's a solid RB4.
38) Leon Washington
ADP: 98.4 (9th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released QB Brett Favre, drafted RB Shonn Greene.
Overview: Unfortunately for Leon Washington, the Jets drafted Thomas Jones' heir apparent in Shonn Greene. Washington will maintain the exact same role as last year, but odds are that Greene will step in as the starter should Thomas Jones get hurt, so he doesn't possess the same upside as last year. However, with the Jets choosing between the unimpressive Kellen Clemens and rookie Jonathan Sanchez at QB, their strong offensive line, and their strong defense, the Jets are looking like a mirror image of the 2008 Ravens...coincidence as the Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the Jets coach? Probably not. Washington should post erratic weekly totals, but he will probably get more touches this year as they'll utilize his skills more and also run the ball as much as anyone in the league. I think he's a solid RB3.
39) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Mendenhall has quite a bit of upside for being drafted as a RB4. Willie Parker could be breaking down in front of him after 2 huge workloads in 2006 and 2007, and he'll likely be in on the money downs (passing, goal line) along with being a change-of-pace runner. Parker would have to get hurt to lose his starting job, but Mendenhall projects as the more valuable Steelers RB despite the lesser price tag. However, Mendenhall has shown little on the field as he continues to look like an ordinary RB. The shine of his upside is fading, although taking him as an RB4 could be worth it.
40) Le'Ron McClain
ADP: 101.8 (9th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: McClain turned in one of the most surprising seasons of any RB last year. After starting the year as a mostly unknown FB, McClain ascended to starting RB and became the face of the Ravens smashmouth offensive style. McClain projects to take a backseat to Ray Rice this season, and he's actually moved back to the fullback position. Ray Rice looks like the projected goal line runner now, leaving McClain with no fantasy valued. He'll need an injury in front of him to matter again.
41) Fred Jackson
ADP: 106.1 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension for RB Marshawn Lynch, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Fred Jackson went from non-descript backup for a great young talented RB to an annoying drain on Lynch's carries. A coaching staff favorite, Jackson will get a 3 game stint as a starter during Lynch's suspension, and if he's as good as he showed last year, he'll definitely carve out a bigger role as a platoon-mate for Lynch. He's a definite RB2 for the first 3 weeks while Lynch is suspended, but he will go back to more of a RB3 as Lynch is also too talented to leave on the bench, and Lynch will almost certainly regain his starting position.
42) Earnest Graham
ADP: 107.0 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Derrick Ward.
Overview: Graham clearly annoyed fantasy owners last year. After posting RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he started the year inexplicable sharing carries with veteran Warrick Dunn, and then when he finally start getting primary RB carries, he went down with an ankle injury and was lost for the rest of the season. Tampa signed Derrick Ward, and with Graham projects to be a lesser part of a RB committee. That all being said, Tampa is set to run plenty this year, Ward has had numerous injuries in his career, and Graham will certainly be on the field each game. He's a solid RB4.
43) LeSean McCoy
ADP: 107.1 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McCoy is the new backup RB for Philadelphia, released RB Correll Buckhalter.
Overview: McCoy, a scatback out of Pittsburgh, compares favorably to Brian Westbrook. He's very quick, excellent in the passing game, and just like Westbrook, he'll struggle running between the tackles to start his career. It remains to be seen what version of Brian Westbrook the Eagles will get after serious offseason ankle surgery as he turns 30, so McCoy could play more than the Eagles would prefer depending on how Westbrook holds up. His only competition is Lorenzo Booker, who's a lesser version of the same style of RB. He's an upside pick and a must-have for Westbrook owners.
44) Julius Jones
ADP: 107.2 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed RB Edgerrin James, released RB Maurice Morris.
Overview: Their offensive line sucks, they just signed Edge, and Julius Jones is an average talent at best. This is not the recipe for fantasy success. Avoid.
45) Fred Taylor
ADP: 118.6 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Taylor is part of the clustered NE backfield.
Overview: Taylor showed that he still has some tread on his tires left last season, but he's on his last legs and is joining a very crowded NE backfield. With Maroney likely to start and potentially dominate early down work, there's very little upside here, and Taylor's liabilities in the passing game won't give him much value at all. Pass.
46) Chester Taylor
ADP: 121.1 (11th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Taylor lost carries last year, but he still played essentially the same role he always has since Adrian Peterson arrived. He's the exact same player that you drafted last year, and he'll come at a cheaper price. He's a must-have for Peterson owners, and he's a great RB4 even for non Peterson owners.
47) Ricky Williams
ADP: 125.5 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ricky Williams proved that he still had something left in his tank last season, posting a solid 4.1 YPC as the lesser half of a committee with Ronnie Brown. However, like I mentioned with Ronnie Brown, I expect Brown to take another step forward in the committee as he's another year removed from his ACL injury. This will decrease the amount of time that Williams sees the field, but with no true young backup on the roster, expect Williams to replace Brown as the primary ball carrier should Brown get hurt again.
48) Ray Rice
ADP: 126.4 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Rice is the new starting RB for the Ravens.
Overview: Here's one of the great sleepers in the early ADP reports. Much like Favre at the QB position, I expect his ADP to rise once more people realize that he is the starting RB for the Ravens. Rice has even played on goal line situations in the preseason, and with McClain's move back to fullback, Rice appears to have won the goal line back. He's also the best receiver at the RB position on the team, so along with being the lead back for carries, he'll also lead the RBs in receptions. Everyone expects Baltimore to continue running quite a bit, so expect Rice to approach RB2 value this season. Rice has ascended to the 5th/6th round territory where he's still a fine value. He's still a very good RB3, and perhaps even a RB2 if you're loading up at other positions.
2009 RB3 Value Analysis
25) Larry Johnson
ADP: 52.5 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Matt Cassel is the new starting QB.
Overview: For the 2nd straight year, the wheels came off of LJ's season. He teased owners with a couple big games early on, however he crashed back down to Earth prior to legal troubles destroying the rest of his season. Appropriately, LJ has crashed into late RB2/early RB3 status. Odds are someone will draft him as an RB2 hoping to strike gold, and that's just not going to happen. While LJ looks safe on KC's roster after they inexplicably did nothing to upgrade their RB position, new coach Todd Haley will likely use him similar to how he used Edgerrin James in ARI. He's going to be pulled off the field a decent bit in favor of Jamaal Charles. An alarming stat: LJ was 4/17 on carries inside the 5 yard line. While the offensive line deserves some of the blame, LJ simply isn't what he once was, and he's not going to get the 275-300 carries he'll need to be an every week starter.
26) Darren McFadden
ADP: 52.6 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McFadden is the new starting RB for Oakland.
Overview: McFadden had some pretty bad luck in 2008. Fargas suffered the injury McFadden owners dreamed about in week 2, McFadden torched the Chiefs for 164 rushing yards, and then later that game he suffered a toe injury that limited him for the rest of the season. McFadden now has the starting job, but Fargas and Michael Bush remain on the roster, so it's not his all to himself. That's not a bad thing as I don't view McFadden as a 300 carry RB. As long as Oakland caters to his versatility in the passing game while giving him 15-20 touches a game, McFadden looks like a solid RB2 for 2009.
27) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 58.7 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Stewart never took the starting job some people thought he would in 2008 thanks to the re-dedication of similarly talented DeAngelo Williams. Stewart will return as the lesser committee member in 2009, but that's only if he can get himself back onto the field. An Achillies injury has eliminated most of his offseason, and he's still not back at practice, much less playing in games. Let someone else roll the dice with him as their RB3.
28) Chris Wells
ADP: 63.3 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Wells is the new starting RB in Arizona.
Overview: Wells was a player to watch this preseason, but he hasn't even been on the field yet. He is slated to receive some playing time in the 3rd week of the preseason, so we'll finally be able to watch a bit of him then. He's missed a decent portion of camp with various injuries, which was common for Wells in college as well. He still has a ton of upside, but he's obviously injury prone and probably not suited to be a workhorse. Tim Hightower has improved, so this is looking like a committee attack, at least to start the season. He's still worth speculation, but he comes with more risk than originally thought.
29) Willie Parker
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Nate Washington.
Overview: I think Willie Parker slots in as nothing more than a decent RB3 this year, and there's more downside than upside. He disappointed owners with injuries last season after a hot start, and with RB Rashard Mendenhall returning to presumably a bigger role than he was slated for last season, Parker's value is on the way down. Not only will he split time with Mendenhall, but Mendenhall also projects to be on the field for the money downs (passing, goal line). Parker should go back to his role in 2005 as an early down runner, and if he's effective in that role, he should be a decent bye week fill-in. I'd rather avoid the Steelers backfield this year.
30) LenDale White
ADP: 72.9 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: White made up for his decreased role by scoring 15 times last season, although that made him rather risky knowing that he was worthless unless he scored. His touches are set to decrease with the expected increased usage of Chris Johnson, and furthermore, he's dropped weight this offseason. Given he was a power back and isn't going to suddenly gain a bunch of speed with the weight loss, one has to wonder what effect that will have on his limited skill set. White is best as an RB4 and handcuff for CJ owners than a standalone bye week fill-in.
31) Cedric Benson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Laveraneus Coles, released TJ Houshmandzadeh.
Overview: Benson was somewhat of a revelation in Cincy last year, posting several 100 yard games after becoming the starting RB in Cincy. Benson isn't fast and doesn't catch passes, but if he runs with the same renewed dedication as last year, he can last as a 1st/2nd down RB, and he'll score a decent amount of TDs behind the Cincy passing game. He can be a lesser version of Rudi Johnson in his prime, and that's worth having on your bench as an RB3. There's certainly no one behind him who would be a threat to his job.
32) Felix Jones
ADP: 80.5 (7th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Felix Jones showed just how dangerous he can be last season in the short time he played prior to missing the rest of the season with injuries (torn hamstring, torn toe ligament). There's a decent chance that Felix Jones steps until Julius Jones' former role in the Dallas offense, which would give him a good number of touches. Barber will still dominate the money downs, but Jones should get the ball enough to be a decent bye week fill-in. He has huge upside should Barber go down again.
33) Donald Brown
ADP: 84.7 (7th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Brown is the new backup RB for Indy.
Overview: Brown is essentially a more explosive version of Joseph Addai. Brown looks like he'll be the lesser version of a RB committee, much like Addai was in his first season, which means he'll have some good games as well as some games where he doesn't get enough touches to start. All in all, this makes him a solid RB3 with the upside for more...an ideal RB3 candidate.
34) Darren Sproles
ADP: 89.1 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Sproles had his coming out party in the playoffs last season when he posted 105 rushing yards and 2 TDs in week 1 of the playoffs, and then he followed that up with 91 receiving yards and 1 TD in week 2 of the playoffs. That sort of versatility shows how valuable he can be, although nobody seems to think he can last as a featured RB, and I tend to agree. Regardless, while Norv Turner seems to think LT will get 320 carries again, it's way up in the air as to whether or not he will, and also whether he can hold up doing that again. As it stands right now, assume Sproles will be a solid handcuff with the potential for a large role should LT goes down, but I'm not sure what type of bye week fill-in value he'll have as LT's backup. More should be known closer to the season.
35) Willis McGahee
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'm going to keep this short. McGahee had yet another offseason surgery, supposed to both his knee and ankle, and he's likely to fall to 3rd on the depth chart. Ray Rice will probably start, and LeRon McClain will probably keep short down/goal line duties. Avoid at anything more than an unexciting RB4.
36) Jamal Lewis
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded TE Kellen Winslow.
Overview: Jamal Lewis posted workman-like, veteran RB stats for a crappy offense last year. He posted 1000 yards, but never ran for 100 yards in a single game, and he only scored 4 TDs. That will likely be his absolute best case scenario as Cleveland finally seems intent on getting explosive backup James Harrison more involved. Lewis will still get the goal line carries, but he's just not going to see enough carries to be anything more than a RB3, and at that price, I'd rather take a shot at a younger option with a higher upside than a declining vet who's a candidate to break down.
ADP: 52.5 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Matt Cassel is the new starting QB.
Overview: For the 2nd straight year, the wheels came off of LJ's season. He teased owners with a couple big games early on, however he crashed back down to Earth prior to legal troubles destroying the rest of his season. Appropriately, LJ has crashed into late RB2/early RB3 status. Odds are someone will draft him as an RB2 hoping to strike gold, and that's just not going to happen. While LJ looks safe on KC's roster after they inexplicably did nothing to upgrade their RB position, new coach Todd Haley will likely use him similar to how he used Edgerrin James in ARI. He's going to be pulled off the field a decent bit in favor of Jamaal Charles. An alarming stat: LJ was 4/17 on carries inside the 5 yard line. While the offensive line deserves some of the blame, LJ simply isn't what he once was, and he's not going to get the 275-300 carries he'll need to be an every week starter.
26) Darren McFadden
ADP: 52.6 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: McFadden is the new starting RB for Oakland.
Overview: McFadden had some pretty bad luck in 2008. Fargas suffered the injury McFadden owners dreamed about in week 2, McFadden torched the Chiefs for 164 rushing yards, and then later that game he suffered a toe injury that limited him for the rest of the season. McFadden now has the starting job, but Fargas and Michael Bush remain on the roster, so it's not his all to himself. That's not a bad thing as I don't view McFadden as a 300 carry RB. As long as Oakland caters to his versatility in the passing game while giving him 15-20 touches a game, McFadden looks like a solid RB2 for 2009.
27) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 58.7 (5th round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Stewart never took the starting job some people thought he would in 2008 thanks to the re-dedication of similarly talented DeAngelo Williams. Stewart will return as the lesser committee member in 2009, but that's only if he can get himself back onto the field. An Achillies injury has eliminated most of his offseason, and he's still not back at practice, much less playing in games. Let someone else roll the dice with him as their RB3.
28) Chris Wells
ADP: 63.3 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Wells is the new starting RB in Arizona.
Overview: Wells was a player to watch this preseason, but he hasn't even been on the field yet. He is slated to receive some playing time in the 3rd week of the preseason, so we'll finally be able to watch a bit of him then. He's missed a decent portion of camp with various injuries, which was common for Wells in college as well. He still has a ton of upside, but he's obviously injury prone and probably not suited to be a workhorse. Tim Hightower has improved, so this is looking like a committee attack, at least to start the season. He's still worth speculation, but he comes with more risk than originally thought.
29) Willie Parker
ADP: 65.3 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Nate Washington.
Overview: I think Willie Parker slots in as nothing more than a decent RB3 this year, and there's more downside than upside. He disappointed owners with injuries last season after a hot start, and with RB Rashard Mendenhall returning to presumably a bigger role than he was slated for last season, Parker's value is on the way down. Not only will he split time with Mendenhall, but Mendenhall also projects to be on the field for the money downs (passing, goal line). Parker should go back to his role in 2005 as an early down runner, and if he's effective in that role, he should be a decent bye week fill-in. I'd rather avoid the Steelers backfield this year.
30) LenDale White
ADP: 72.9 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington.
Overview: White made up for his decreased role by scoring 15 times last season, although that made him rather risky knowing that he was worthless unless he scored. His touches are set to decrease with the expected increased usage of Chris Johnson, and furthermore, he's dropped weight this offseason. Given he was a power back and isn't going to suddenly gain a bunch of speed with the weight loss, one has to wonder what effect that will have on his limited skill set. White is best as an RB4 and handcuff for CJ owners than a standalone bye week fill-in.
31) Cedric Benson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Laveraneus Coles, released TJ Houshmandzadeh.
Overview: Benson was somewhat of a revelation in Cincy last year, posting several 100 yard games after becoming the starting RB in Cincy. Benson isn't fast and doesn't catch passes, but if he runs with the same renewed dedication as last year, he can last as a 1st/2nd down RB, and he'll score a decent amount of TDs behind the Cincy passing game. He can be a lesser version of Rudi Johnson in his prime, and that's worth having on your bench as an RB3. There's certainly no one behind him who would be a threat to his job.
32) Felix Jones
ADP: 80.5 (7th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Felix Jones showed just how dangerous he can be last season in the short time he played prior to missing the rest of the season with injuries (torn hamstring, torn toe ligament). There's a decent chance that Felix Jones steps until Julius Jones' former role in the Dallas offense, which would give him a good number of touches. Barber will still dominate the money downs, but Jones should get the ball enough to be a decent bye week fill-in. He has huge upside should Barber go down again.
33) Donald Brown
ADP: 84.7 (7th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Brown is the new backup RB for Indy.
Overview: Brown is essentially a more explosive version of Joseph Addai. Brown looks like he'll be the lesser version of a RB committee, much like Addai was in his first season, which means he'll have some good games as well as some games where he doesn't get enough touches to start. All in all, this makes him a solid RB3 with the upside for more...an ideal RB3 candidate.
34) Darren Sproles
ADP: 89.1 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Sproles had his coming out party in the playoffs last season when he posted 105 rushing yards and 2 TDs in week 1 of the playoffs, and then he followed that up with 91 receiving yards and 1 TD in week 2 of the playoffs. That sort of versatility shows how valuable he can be, although nobody seems to think he can last as a featured RB, and I tend to agree. Regardless, while Norv Turner seems to think LT will get 320 carries again, it's way up in the air as to whether or not he will, and also whether he can hold up doing that again. As it stands right now, assume Sproles will be a solid handcuff with the potential for a large role should LT goes down, but I'm not sure what type of bye week fill-in value he'll have as LT's backup. More should be known closer to the season.
35) Willis McGahee
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: I'm going to keep this short. McGahee had yet another offseason surgery, supposed to both his knee and ankle, and he's likely to fall to 3rd on the depth chart. Ray Rice will probably start, and LeRon McClain will probably keep short down/goal line duties. Avoid at anything more than an unexciting RB4.
36) Jamal Lewis
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded TE Kellen Winslow.
Overview: Jamal Lewis posted workman-like, veteran RB stats for a crappy offense last year. He posted 1000 yards, but never ran for 100 yards in a single game, and he only scored 4 TDs. That will likely be his absolute best case scenario as Cleveland finally seems intent on getting explosive backup James Harrison more involved. Lewis will still get the goal line carries, but he's just not going to see enough carries to be anything more than a RB3, and at that price, I'd rather take a shot at a younger option with a higher upside than a declining vet who's a candidate to break down.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
2009 RB2 Value Analysis
13) Clinton Portis
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Portis blew out of the gates with the best stats since his Denver days, but unfortunately it took an insane workload to get him there, and he broke down in the 2nd half. Portis, like Tomlinson and Westbrook ahead of him, is a candidate to break down this year. He's had a lot of carries in his career, and he doesn't offer much in the passing game. He also plays for behind a below average offensive line with a stagnant offense. He could post workmanlike numbers again, but fits better as a RB2 at this stage than a RB1. Ultimately, I'd MUCH rather wait til round 3 to grab Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas.
14) Brandon Jacobs
ADP: 16.6 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress.
Overview: Well, we certainly know what we're getting with Brandon Jacobs at this stage. He's going to maul defenses when healthy, he's going to score touchdowns, and he's going to miss a few games. The offense will miss Burress stretching the field, but are counting on their young WRs to pick up the slack. It also remains to be seen if Ahmad Bradshaw can pick up the change-of-pace role that Derrick Ward played so admirably last season. Running behind one of the best lines in football and supported by a great defense, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not chugging along at the same pace he's set the past two seasons. Just beware of the injury risk and don't count on 16 games. He's a borderline RB1 when healthy.
15) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 29.4 (3rd round, 5th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ronnie Brown made headlines with his 4 TD outburst in week 5 out of the Wildcat formation, followed that up with a 24/125/1TD line in week 6, then curious only received 20 carries in one game after that while essentially splitting time with Ricky Williams. I'm still a huge proponent of Ronnie Brown, and I think you'll see the best of him in 2009. He'll be almost 2 years removed from his ACL surgery, so he should get some explosion back. It's hard to imagine the now 32 year old Ricky Williams spending as much time on the field as he did last season, so I expect him to move into more of a backup role while Brown returns as the lead RB. Brown is safest as an RB2 because his exact workload is undetermined, but I think he has an RB1 season in him for 2009.
16) Pierre Thomas
ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: Thomas had a coming out party on the last game of the season at Chicago in 2007, but wasn't guaranteed a role on a clustered RB depth chart for the Saints before earning one as McAllister was phased out of the offense. Thomas took it and ran, posting RB1 numbers between weeks 11 and 16. The Saints flirted with drafting Chris Wells and signing veteran RBs in the offseason, but ultimately did nothing and will head into the 2009 season with Thomas as their primary ball carrier. Reggie Bush remains, but appears to be heading back to a change-of-pace RB/WR, plus he's coming off of major knee surgery. If Thomas can hold up during his first run as a primary RB, there's no question he has the skills and surrounding offense necessary to be a RB1. Like Ronnie Brown, he's safer as a RB, but his upside is huge
17) Ryan Grant
ADP: 35.0 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ryan Grant doesn't have an admirable skill set as he doesn't catch passes and isn't productive in short yardage, but thanks to his surrounding offense and the lack of a bruiser behind him on the depth chart, he manages to post solid RB2 numbers. After teasing owners with great RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he regressed to the mean in 2008, and his lack of TDs is moreso a reflection of his poor short yardage skills than bad luck. Expect more of the same in 2009 for Grant, and he's a reasonably safe, unexciting RB2. I'd rather take a 2nd WR.
18) Thomas Jones
ADP: 35.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Mark Sanchez, drafted RB Shonn Greene, released WR Laveraneus Coles
Overview: TJ is on the ole avoid list. While the Jets are set up to be a great rushing team again behind a good offensve line, Jones is turning 31 before the season, is coming off of 4 straight 300ish carry seasons, will battle for carries between both the more explosive Leon Washington and the younger Shonn Greene, and will have a rookie QB leading the offense. I still fully expect him to start, but his role is guaranteed to decrease on what projects to be a less explosive offense.
19) Kevin Smith
ADP: 36.4 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Matthew Stafford, signed WR Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Kevin Smith inexplicably lost his job for a bit to the washed up Rudi Johnson last year, but that was just one of many boneheaded decisions by the first coaching staff to lead an NFL team to an 0-16 season. Smith closed strong, posting borderline RB1 numbers from week 10 onwards. He still has an iffy line in front of him, and the prospects of Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford starting at QB isn't enticing, but he produced very well down the stretch with the same team last year, and we can't ignore that. He's a well-rounded RB who runs hard and should produce 2nd round numbers at a 3rd round price. I'd rather have him than Portis, Grant, or Jones as my RB2.
20) Reggie Bush
ADP: 42.1 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Pierre Thomas is the new starting RB.
Overview: Reggie Bush was off to his best season fantasy-wise of his career prior to a knee injury, but that was mostly because of his great receiving talent and not because of positive strides running the football. After 3 seasons with no improvement, the Saints have moved Pierre Thomas to the primary ball carrier position, and expect Reggie Bush to see less carries while maintaining his receiving value. The other negative against Bush is how well he'll recover his speed and explosiveness coming off of serious offseason knee surgery, which is essentially what allows him to have fantasy value. Given all of this, I'd like Bush much better as a 3rd RB than someone I plug into my lineup every week. His exact role is uncertain at this time.
21) Joseph Addai
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Donald Brown, release WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Just as his 2nd half slide in 2007 indicated, Addai simply is not a feature RB. He sustains too many injuries that require him to come out of games or miss them altogether. He disappointed yet again in 2008, and with Dominic Rhodes leaving once more, they have drafted rookie RB Donald Brown. The Colts have been at their best in the post-Edge era by using a full-out committee, and with the more explosive and equally cerebral Brown now aboard, I expect them to employ the same strategy this year. Addai's experience will give him the edge in carries this year, but Addai is going to be an iffy weekly play.
22) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 47.3 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Marshawn Lynch got himself into more trouble this offseason, and as a result he will serve a 3 game suspension to start 2009. This is real trouble because often times backup RB Fred Jackson looked like the better RB in 2008. Jackson will be given a chance to carry the full load for the first 3 games, and there's a good chance he'll work himself into a timeshare, especially with the added benefit of Terrell Owens helping make the offense more explosive. I don't like drafting a 2nd RB likely in fight for playing time, especially with a 3 game disadvantage. I still think Lynch will get more carries than Jackson when he returns, but will it be enough to make him an every week starter? Odds say no. Lynch would be great as a RB3, but not as a RB2. Let someone else go RB2 on him in the 4th round.
23) Derrick Ward
ADP: 48.5 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Ward is the new starting RB for Tampa Bay.
Overview: Ward essentially moves from 1 timeshare to another, but this time he'll be the lead back. Ward will be 29 when the season starts, but has far less tread on his tires than most 29 year old starting RBs. Some will argue that this will be a straight 50/50 split with incumbant Earnest Graham, and it's actually starting to shape up that way. I originally thought that TB didn't spend all that money on Ward to only put him on the field 50% of the time, but they're talking about a 2-2-1 split with Ward, Graham, and Cadillac. It would certainly give the Bucs some diversity, but it seems ridiculous that their most talented RB would only be on the field 2/5 series. It hurts Ward a bit, and he's now a dicey RB2 pick.
24) Knowshon Moreno
ADP: 51.4 (5th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Moreno is the new starting RB for Denver.
Overview: Moreno hasn't officially won the starting job yet, but everything indicates that he will be starting in week 1. Moreno was the best all-around back to come out of the NFL draft in 2009, and he landed in a great situation as he only has guys like Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan to beat out. The only knock against Moreno's skill set is the lack of breakaway speed, but that's not necessary in McDaniels' offense. His offensive line is very good, Orton will lead a solid passing game to keep guys out of the box, and their WRs are dangerous. The only thing holding me back from being very excited about Moreno is that New England used a multiple back system for years, and while Moreno has the skill set to be a true lead backs, odds are that Buckhalter and maybe even Jordan will see time on the field as well. Moreno is a recommended RB2, but not before the 5th round.
ADP: 16.2 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Portis blew out of the gates with the best stats since his Denver days, but unfortunately it took an insane workload to get him there, and he broke down in the 2nd half. Portis, like Tomlinson and Westbrook ahead of him, is a candidate to break down this year. He's had a lot of carries in his career, and he doesn't offer much in the passing game. He also plays for behind a below average offensive line with a stagnant offense. He could post workmanlike numbers again, but fits better as a RB2 at this stage than a RB1. Ultimately, I'd MUCH rather wait til round 3 to grab Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas.
14) Brandon Jacobs
ADP: 16.6 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Plaxico Burress.
Overview: Well, we certainly know what we're getting with Brandon Jacobs at this stage. He's going to maul defenses when healthy, he's going to score touchdowns, and he's going to miss a few games. The offense will miss Burress stretching the field, but are counting on their young WRs to pick up the slack. It also remains to be seen if Ahmad Bradshaw can pick up the change-of-pace role that Derrick Ward played so admirably last season. Running behind one of the best lines in football and supported by a great defense, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not chugging along at the same pace he's set the past two seasons. Just beware of the injury risk and don't count on 16 games. He's a borderline RB1 when healthy.
15) Ronnie Brown
ADP: 29.4 (3rd round, 5th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ronnie Brown made headlines with his 4 TD outburst in week 5 out of the Wildcat formation, followed that up with a 24/125/1TD line in week 6, then curious only received 20 carries in one game after that while essentially splitting time with Ricky Williams. I'm still a huge proponent of Ronnie Brown, and I think you'll see the best of him in 2009. He'll be almost 2 years removed from his ACL surgery, so he should get some explosion back. It's hard to imagine the now 32 year old Ricky Williams spending as much time on the field as he did last season, so I expect him to move into more of a backup role while Brown returns as the lead RB. Brown is safest as an RB2 because his exact workload is undetermined, but I think he has an RB1 season in him for 2009.
16) Pierre Thomas
ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Deuce McAllister.
Overview: Thomas had a coming out party on the last game of the season at Chicago in 2007, but wasn't guaranteed a role on a clustered RB depth chart for the Saints before earning one as McAllister was phased out of the offense. Thomas took it and ran, posting RB1 numbers between weeks 11 and 16. The Saints flirted with drafting Chris Wells and signing veteran RBs in the offseason, but ultimately did nothing and will head into the 2009 season with Thomas as their primary ball carrier. Reggie Bush remains, but appears to be heading back to a change-of-pace RB/WR, plus he's coming off of major knee surgery. If Thomas can hold up during his first run as a primary RB, there's no question he has the skills and surrounding offense necessary to be a RB1. Like Ronnie Brown, he's safer as a RB, but his upside is huge
17) Ryan Grant
ADP: 35.0 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Ryan Grant doesn't have an admirable skill set as he doesn't catch passes and isn't productive in short yardage, but thanks to his surrounding offense and the lack of a bruiser behind him on the depth chart, he manages to post solid RB2 numbers. After teasing owners with great RB1 numbers down the stretch in 2007, he regressed to the mean in 2008, and his lack of TDs is moreso a reflection of his poor short yardage skills than bad luck. Expect more of the same in 2009 for Grant, and he's a reasonably safe, unexciting RB2. I'd rather take a 2nd WR.
18) Thomas Jones
ADP: 35.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Mark Sanchez, drafted RB Shonn Greene, released WR Laveraneus Coles
Overview: TJ is on the ole avoid list. While the Jets are set up to be a great rushing team again behind a good offensve line, Jones is turning 31 before the season, is coming off of 4 straight 300ish carry seasons, will battle for carries between both the more explosive Leon Washington and the younger Shonn Greene, and will have a rookie QB leading the offense. I still fully expect him to start, but his role is guaranteed to decrease on what projects to be a less explosive offense.
19) Kevin Smith
ADP: 36.4 (3rd round, 12th pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted QB Matthew Stafford, signed WR Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Kevin Smith inexplicably lost his job for a bit to the washed up Rudi Johnson last year, but that was just one of many boneheaded decisions by the first coaching staff to lead an NFL team to an 0-16 season. Smith closed strong, posting borderline RB1 numbers from week 10 onwards. He still has an iffy line in front of him, and the prospects of Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford starting at QB isn't enticing, but he produced very well down the stretch with the same team last year, and we can't ignore that. He's a well-rounded RB who runs hard and should produce 2nd round numbers at a 3rd round price. I'd rather have him than Portis, Grant, or Jones as my RB2.
20) Reggie Bush
ADP: 42.1 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Pierre Thomas is the new starting RB.
Overview: Reggie Bush was off to his best season fantasy-wise of his career prior to a knee injury, but that was mostly because of his great receiving talent and not because of positive strides running the football. After 3 seasons with no improvement, the Saints have moved Pierre Thomas to the primary ball carrier position, and expect Reggie Bush to see less carries while maintaining his receiving value. The other negative against Bush is how well he'll recover his speed and explosiveness coming off of serious offseason knee surgery, which is essentially what allows him to have fantasy value. Given all of this, I'd like Bush much better as a 3rd RB than someone I plug into my lineup every week. His exact role is uncertain at this time.
21) Joseph Addai
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted RB Donald Brown, release WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Just as his 2nd half slide in 2007 indicated, Addai simply is not a feature RB. He sustains too many injuries that require him to come out of games or miss them altogether. He disappointed yet again in 2008, and with Dominic Rhodes leaving once more, they have drafted rookie RB Donald Brown. The Colts have been at their best in the post-Edge era by using a full-out committee, and with the more explosive and equally cerebral Brown now aboard, I expect them to employ the same strategy this year. Addai's experience will give him the edge in carries this year, but Addai is going to be an iffy weekly play.
22) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 47.3 (4th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: 3 game suspension, signed WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: Marshawn Lynch got himself into more trouble this offseason, and as a result he will serve a 3 game suspension to start 2009. This is real trouble because often times backup RB Fred Jackson looked like the better RB in 2008. Jackson will be given a chance to carry the full load for the first 3 games, and there's a good chance he'll work himself into a timeshare, especially with the added benefit of Terrell Owens helping make the offense more explosive. I don't like drafting a 2nd RB likely in fight for playing time, especially with a 3 game disadvantage. I still think Lynch will get more carries than Jackson when he returns, but will it be enough to make him an every week starter? Odds say no. Lynch would be great as a RB3, but not as a RB2. Let someone else go RB2 on him in the 4th round.
23) Derrick Ward
ADP: 48.5 (4th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Ward is the new starting RB for Tampa Bay.
Overview: Ward essentially moves from 1 timeshare to another, but this time he'll be the lead back. Ward will be 29 when the season starts, but has far less tread on his tires than most 29 year old starting RBs. Some will argue that this will be a straight 50/50 split with incumbant Earnest Graham, and it's actually starting to shape up that way. I originally thought that TB didn't spend all that money on Ward to only put him on the field 50% of the time, but they're talking about a 2-2-1 split with Ward, Graham, and Cadillac. It would certainly give the Bucs some diversity, but it seems ridiculous that their most talented RB would only be on the field 2/5 series. It hurts Ward a bit, and he's now a dicey RB2 pick.
24) Knowshon Moreno
ADP: 51.4 (5th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Moreno is the new starting RB for Denver.
Overview: Moreno hasn't officially won the starting job yet, but everything indicates that he will be starting in week 1. Moreno was the best all-around back to come out of the NFL draft in 2009, and he landed in a great situation as he only has guys like Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan to beat out. The only knock against Moreno's skill set is the lack of breakaway speed, but that's not necessary in McDaniels' offense. His offensive line is very good, Orton will lead a solid passing game to keep guys out of the box, and their WRs are dangerous. The only thing holding me back from being very excited about Moreno is that New England used a multiple back system for years, and while Moreno has the skill set to be a true lead backs, odds are that Buckhalter and maybe even Jordan will see time on the field as well. Moreno is a recommended RB2, but not before the 5th round.
2009 RB1 Value Analysis
1) Adrian Peterson
ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Brett Favre, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: ADP is the new king of fantasy football, inheriting the throne of LaDainian Tomlinson. This is for good reason...he's the best RB in football. Peterson has a strong offensive line, a solid backup that keeps him from being overworked, and the addition of Percy Harvin will give defenses another offensive weapon to keep in mind when game planning. Now add Brett Favre as a QB the defense must respect, and Peterson should see less 8 man fronts this year. He's not as valuable in PPR formats, but he's the sure-first first pick in non-PPR leagues.
2) Matt Forte
ADP: 2.5 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Like I said last year, the only negative against Matt Forte coming out of college was the competition he faced at Tulane. Right in line with that, Forte showed no weakness at the NFL level, impressing everyone with his complete game. Of some concern was his high workload of 379 touches last season, but he played well through his toe injury to close out the year. The addition of Jay Cutler is huge as it'll prevent defenses from loading up against him, and take some weight off of his shoulders to carry to the offense. It'll also allow him to score more...I expect Forte to score 10+ TDs on the ground this year. If Kevin Jones can recover this season, he'll provide a much needed solid backup RB. Forte looks right to be taken in the top 3.
3) Michael Turner
ADP: 3.2 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Turner was an absolute beast last season, but I'm expecting problems this season. Most importantly, he carried the ball 376 times last season, and that carry total surpassed 400 after his playoff game. There is a laundry list of RBs who break down after the magical 375 f/carry (carries + 1/2 * receptions) season, and Turner is the lone member of that club coming into 2009. There is a HIGH probability of Turner breaking down this season, and when you combine that with a rare top season void of receiving numbers, you are taking a HUGE risk thinking Turner will repeat. Avoid.
4) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Much to the excitement of fantasy owners, MJD finally gets his chance to be the featured back for the Jaguars. I love MJD this year, and after acquiring the 6th pick in my main league this year, I was severely disappointed to see that MJD was going in the top 5. I was hardly surprised, however, as MJD has always impressed in the games that Taylor has missed in his short career. MJD is one of the best all-around RBs in the game, he gets his strong offensive line back this year after devastating injuries across the board, and they reloaded in the draft as well with rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. MJD is my 2nd favorite RB this year behind Peterson.
5) Steven Jackson
ADP: 5.7 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt.
Overview: SJax started slow after his holdout, tore his groin muscle again, but then returned for a strong stretch run and dominated the way his owners thought he would throughout the season. Jackson certainly made some people think he'd be the next stud RB after his breakout 2006 season, but he's disappointed with injuries the following 2 seasons. However, with the increasing use of running back committees, Jackson is part of the dying breed of true feature RBs. His offensive line got stronger (signed Jason Brown, drafted Jason Smith), but unfortunately his supporting passing game weakened again, limiting his TD potential. SJax is an injury risk, but he's worth taking in the top 5 as a super-talented, every-down RB.
6) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 6.5 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Oh how it pains me to say this, but I can't recommend LT this season. LT suffered the first down season in his career last year. By down year, of course, I mean by his standards as he still posted 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs. However, he struggled to regain his explosiveness after offseason knee surgery, and a toe injury bothered him the majority of the season prior to missing yet another key playoff game. The main problem with the playoff game was the emergence of Darren Sproles, whom the Chargers franchise tagged to use this season. At 30 years old, with the 6th pick in the draft, and a slightly uncertain role, you're risking quite a bit for LT to return to greatness at his age. I wouldn't take LT over DeAngelo or Gore, but I'd still favor him over Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton.
7) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 7.7 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DeAngelo blew up the fantasy football world with one of the most ridiculous 8 game stretches we've seen to date, posting 993 rushing yards with 15 TDs in the 2nd half last year. Carolina returns essentially the same team this year. With Jonathan Stewart continuously nursing an Achillies injury that has mostly kept him off the field the entire offseason, including all preseason games so far, he's emerged as far less of a threat to DeAngelo as initially feared. DeAngelo most certainly has the talent to capitalize, and he's going to be an every-down force until Stewart returns at some point. He's worth taking in the middle of the 1st round.
8) Chris Johnson
ADP: 9.5 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt.
Overview: Chris Johnson, after an offseason hyping his potential workload, exploded onto the scene with 1500+ yards and 10 TDs. The downside was that teammate LenDale White scored 15 TDs, several of them after Chris Johnson had helped them march down the field onto to give way to White inside the 5. Luckily, though, Johnson was not always removed at the goal line, which bodes well for his success this season. Everything indicates that Johnson will be featured even more in his 2nd season, right down to his dedication in the weight room to add some muscle, and while White should still vulture TDs, expect an increase in yardage and hopefully another 10 TD season. The Titans line remains very strong, and new WRs Washington and Britt will help Justin Gage in forming some semblance of passing game to keep the defenses from stacking the box.
9) Steve Slaton
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Slaton, shedding the label of injury-prone 3rd down back, also exploded onto the scene in 2008. He posted nearly identical numbers to Chris Johnson across the board. However, despite all the similarities, there's something about Slaton I don't like. He's not as strong between the tackles as Johnson, and I think it'll take another season of durability for me to trust him as true #1 RB. The preseason has proven that Chris Brown is the goal line back, although Brown's lack of durability will probably impact how long he keeps this role. However, this proves that Houston prefers not to use Slaton at the goal line. He's just one of those players where things look fine on paper, but there's something about him I don't like. Draft at your own peril.
10) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 12.7 (1st round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin.
Overview: Brian Westbrook, like Tomlinson, is nearing the end of the line. He turns 30 as the season starts, has a long history of injuries over his career, and he's coming off of serious ankle surgery that the Eagles were trying to be secretive about this offseason. When Westbrook is on the field, he's a terror in all facets of the game. The problem is that his body is starting to fail him, and expecting him to bounce back at age 30 after major surgery is a very dangerous proposition. He'd be a safer pick if you paired him on the turn with another more reliable RB, but even so there's a good argument that you should take a stud WR instead. If McCoy continues to improve, Westbrook could go from every-down force to lead RB in a committee, further limiting his upside in 2009.
11) Frank Gore
ADP: 14.6 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New offensive coordinator, drafted WR Michael Crabtree.
Overview: Gore was tearing it up as expected until an ankle injury derailed his 2008 season. Mike Martz is now gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Gore is an outstanding all-around RB. What he'll likely lose in receptions he'll make up for with additional carries for new smashmouth coach Mike Singletary. The addition of rookie Michael Crabtree will help bolster their WR group as well. Perhaps people are scared of his lengthy injury history, but I don't know why he's being bumped to the 2nd round in favor of aging RBs like Tomlinson and Westbook, a similar RB in a similar situation like Steven Jackson, and unproven backs like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. I think Gore is just as safe of a bet, if not safer, than any of those guys. I would happily take him in the middle of the 1st round.
12) Marion Barber
ADP: 15.4 (2nd round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: I expected big things from Marion Barber in 2008, and he delivered until disaster struck. Tony Romo's injury hurt his production for a couple weeks, and then a toe injury killed his final month. Some claim that it verifies their belief that Barber simply isn't durable enough to handle a full load, but it's not like he was constantly nicked up all season long. He suffered an unfortunate toe injury, a single injury, that sidelined him for a month. That's no different from the groin injury that knocked Jackson out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Gore out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Westbrook out, etc. At any rate, Barber is rumored to be returning to his closer role with the emergence of Felix Jones last year. Dallas still has a solid line, and Romo will keep the chains moving even without Owens. That being said, Barber was RB1 material in that role, so if that's the worst that happens, he'll go right back to being a solid RB1.
ADP: 1.2 (1st round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed Brett Favre, drafted WR Percy Harvin.
Overview: ADP is the new king of fantasy football, inheriting the throne of LaDainian Tomlinson. This is for good reason...he's the best RB in football. Peterson has a strong offensive line, a solid backup that keeps him from being overworked, and the addition of Percy Harvin will give defenses another offensive weapon to keep in mind when game planning. Now add Brett Favre as a QB the defense must respect, and Peterson should see less 8 man fronts this year. He's not as valuable in PPR formats, but he's the sure-first first pick in non-PPR leagues.
2) Matt Forte
ADP: 2.5 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for QB Jay Cutler.
Overview: Like I said last year, the only negative against Matt Forte coming out of college was the competition he faced at Tulane. Right in line with that, Forte showed no weakness at the NFL level, impressing everyone with his complete game. Of some concern was his high workload of 379 touches last season, but he played well through his toe injury to close out the year. The addition of Jay Cutler is huge as it'll prevent defenses from loading up against him, and take some weight off of his shoulders to carry to the offense. It'll also allow him to score more...I expect Forte to score 10+ TDs on the ground this year. If Kevin Jones can recover this season, he'll provide a much needed solid backup RB. Forte looks right to be taken in the top 3.
3) Michael Turner
ADP: 3.2 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Traded for TE Tony Gonzalez.
Overview: Turner was an absolute beast last season, but I'm expecting problems this season. Most importantly, he carried the ball 376 times last season, and that carry total surpassed 400 after his playoff game. There is a laundry list of RBs who break down after the magical 375 f/carry (carries + 1/2 * receptions) season, and Turner is the lone member of that club coming into 2009. There is a HIGH probability of Turner breaking down this season, and when you combine that with a rare top season void of receiving numbers, you are taking a HUGE risk thinking Turner will repeat. Avoid.
4) Maurice Jones-Drew
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released RB Fred Taylor.
Overview: Much to the excitement of fantasy owners, MJD finally gets his chance to be the featured back for the Jaguars. I love MJD this year, and after acquiring the 6th pick in my main league this year, I was severely disappointed to see that MJD was going in the top 5. I was hardly surprised, however, as MJD has always impressed in the games that Taylor has missed in his short career. MJD is one of the best all-around RBs in the game, he gets his strong offensive line back this year after devastating injuries across the board, and they reloaded in the draft as well with rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. MJD is my 2nd favorite RB this year behind Peterson.
5) Steven Jackson
ADP: 5.7 (1st round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Torry Holt.
Overview: SJax started slow after his holdout, tore his groin muscle again, but then returned for a strong stretch run and dominated the way his owners thought he would throughout the season. Jackson certainly made some people think he'd be the next stud RB after his breakout 2006 season, but he's disappointed with injuries the following 2 seasons. However, with the increasing use of running back committees, Jackson is part of the dying breed of true feature RBs. His offensive line got stronger (signed Jason Brown, drafted Jason Smith), but unfortunately his supporting passing game weakened again, limiting his TD potential. SJax is an injury risk, but he's worth taking in the top 5 as a super-talented, every-down RB.
6) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 6.5 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Oh how it pains me to say this, but I can't recommend LT this season. LT suffered the first down season in his career last year. By down year, of course, I mean by his standards as he still posted 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs. However, he struggled to regain his explosiveness after offseason knee surgery, and a toe injury bothered him the majority of the season prior to missing yet another key playoff game. The main problem with the playoff game was the emergence of Darren Sproles, whom the Chargers franchise tagged to use this season. At 30 years old, with the 6th pick in the draft, and a slightly uncertain role, you're risking quite a bit for LT to return to greatness at his age. I wouldn't take LT over DeAngelo or Gore, but I'd still favor him over Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton.
7) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 7.7 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: DeAngelo blew up the fantasy football world with one of the most ridiculous 8 game stretches we've seen to date, posting 993 rushing yards with 15 TDs in the 2nd half last year. Carolina returns essentially the same team this year. With Jonathan Stewart continuously nursing an Achillies injury that has mostly kept him off the field the entire offseason, including all preseason games so far, he's emerged as far less of a threat to DeAngelo as initially feared. DeAngelo most certainly has the talent to capitalize, and he's going to be an every-down force until Stewart returns at some point. He's worth taking in the middle of the 1st round.
8) Chris Johnson
ADP: 9.5 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed In 2009: Signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt.
Overview: Chris Johnson, after an offseason hyping his potential workload, exploded onto the scene with 1500+ yards and 10 TDs. The downside was that teammate LenDale White scored 15 TDs, several of them after Chris Johnson had helped them march down the field onto to give way to White inside the 5. Luckily, though, Johnson was not always removed at the goal line, which bodes well for his success this season. Everything indicates that Johnson will be featured even more in his 2nd season, right down to his dedication in the weight room to add some muscle, and while White should still vulture TDs, expect an increase in yardage and hopefully another 10 TD season. The Titans line remains very strong, and new WRs Washington and Britt will help Justin Gage in forming some semblance of passing game to keep the defenses from stacking the box.
9) Steve Slaton
ADP: 9.8 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Nothing.
Overview: Slaton, shedding the label of injury-prone 3rd down back, also exploded onto the scene in 2008. He posted nearly identical numbers to Chris Johnson across the board. However, despite all the similarities, there's something about Slaton I don't like. He's not as strong between the tackles as Johnson, and I think it'll take another season of durability for me to trust him as true #1 RB. The preseason has proven that Chris Brown is the goal line back, although Brown's lack of durability will probably impact how long he keeps this role. However, this proves that Houston prefers not to use Slaton at the goal line. He's just one of those players where things look fine on paper, but there's something about him I don't like. Draft at your own peril.
10) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 12.7 (1st round, 12th pick)
Value: Overvalued
What's Changed In 2009: Drafted WR Jeremy Maclin.
Overview: Brian Westbrook, like Tomlinson, is nearing the end of the line. He turns 30 as the season starts, has a long history of injuries over his career, and he's coming off of serious ankle surgery that the Eagles were trying to be secretive about this offseason. When Westbrook is on the field, he's a terror in all facets of the game. The problem is that his body is starting to fail him, and expecting him to bounce back at age 30 after major surgery is a very dangerous proposition. He'd be a safer pick if you paired him on the turn with another more reliable RB, but even so there's a good argument that you should take a stud WR instead. If McCoy continues to improve, Westbrook could go from every-down force to lead RB in a committee, further limiting his upside in 2009.
11) Frank Gore
ADP: 14.6 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: New offensive coordinator, drafted WR Michael Crabtree.
Overview: Gore was tearing it up as expected until an ankle injury derailed his 2008 season. Mike Martz is now gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as Gore is an outstanding all-around RB. What he'll likely lose in receptions he'll make up for with additional carries for new smashmouth coach Mike Singletary. The addition of rookie Michael Crabtree will help bolster their WR group as well. Perhaps people are scared of his lengthy injury history, but I don't know why he's being bumped to the 2nd round in favor of aging RBs like Tomlinson and Westbook, a similar RB in a similar situation like Steven Jackson, and unproven backs like Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. I think Gore is just as safe of a bet, if not safer, than any of those guys. I would happily take him in the middle of the 1st round.
12) Marion Barber
ADP: 15.4 (2nd round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
What's Changed In 2009: Released WR Terrell Owens.
Overview: I expected big things from Marion Barber in 2008, and he delivered until disaster struck. Tony Romo's injury hurt his production for a couple weeks, and then a toe injury killed his final month. Some claim that it verifies their belief that Barber simply isn't durable enough to handle a full load, but it's not like he was constantly nicked up all season long. He suffered an unfortunate toe injury, a single injury, that sidelined him for a month. That's no different from the groin injury that knocked Jackson out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Gore out for a month, the ankle injury that knocked Westbrook out, etc. At any rate, Barber is rumored to be returning to his closer role with the emergence of Felix Jones last year. Dallas still has a solid line, and Romo will keep the chains moving even without Owens. That being said, Barber was RB1 material in that role, so if that's the worst that happens, he'll go right back to being a solid RB1.
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