Friday, September 26, 2008

Week 4 Injury Updates

I've updated all players for week 4 injuries. The biggest stories are those of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, and to a lesser extent, Willis McGahee. Westbrook did not practice this week, but given his knowledge of and experience with the Eagles offense, practice isn't mandatory for him. However, he seems unlikely to play.

Westbrook's owners should have handcuffed him with Buckhalter, who should be the primary ball carrier, but do be aware that Lorenzo Booker could steal some 3rd down work, and Tony Hunt could be the goal line back. Westbrook owners who don't have Buckhalter HAVE to sit him out if they don't have Forte or Mendenhall to use instead if Westbrook can't go. Those are the other primary runners that play either at Westbrook's timeslot on Sunday night, or on Monday night. There's absolutely no reason to risk taking a zero at your RB position, especially for a player so unlikely to play right now.

McNabb returned to a full practice on Friday. There was never a whole lot of doubt about his availability, so start him with confidence against the Bears. Without Westbrook and against a great run defense, Philly will probably be more pass heavy than usual.

McGahee looks unlikely to play after being limited in practice this week, and with LeRon McClain hurting as well, Ray Rice might be the starter and primary ball carrier. Given the matchup against Pittsburgh, I would completely avoid the situation.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Giants WR Plaxico Burress Suspended 1 Game (Week 5)

The New York Giants have suspended WR Plaxico Burress for 2 weeks, and with the Giants on bye this week, that will equate to 1 game.

Burress supposedly skipped a meeting on Monday, and then didn't answer his phone yesterday. When he met with the team today, his behavior the past two days was not tolerated, and he was notified of his suspension. He will not be allowed to practice with the team over the next two weeks, and he will not play in week 5, when the Giants come off of their week 4 bye.

Fantasy Impact: If you had week 4 in your "When Burress Does Something Retarded" pool, you win! His fantasy owners can't be pleased as he'll miss week 5, so continue using whoever his replacement on your fantasy team was in week 4, or go pick up Steve Smith. I think Smith would have a fine game in Burress' place. He's certainly not the deep threat Burress is, but he's a very good possession receiver with a bit of field stretching ability. Downgrade Eli's matchup without his top target as I would expect the Giants to run more often. *edit* The Giants said that they'll keep Steve Smith in the slot with Dominick Hixon moving outside, which makes sense as Hixon's skill set is more of a vertical threat anyways. I'd only gamble on Smith/Hixon if your WR depth is depleted by injuries/bye weeks.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Week 4 Waiver Wire Possibilities

QB:

Lots of turnover at QB this week. Let's look at some potential, and some definitive new starters:

Brady Quinn - I'm kicking myself for not outwardly suggesting to pick him up last week. Quinn doesn't have the job yet, but smart fantasy owners don't wait. Anderson will start on Sunday, but he's got about the shortest leash possible, and rumors persist that a slow first series might be the breaking point. Like I posted before, Quinn has the weapons, and I also believe he has the NFL-readiness to be a decent QB2. Anderson owners NEED to pick him up, and he's worth speculating on for everyone.

Sage Rosenfels - Houston has played a brutal schedule so far, and it would have been even worse had the week 2 matchup with Baltimore not been eliminated by the hurricane damage to Reliant Stadium. With Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels catching passes, and an excellent receiver in Steve Slaton in the backfield, Rosenfels would have the talent around him to be a quality QB2 should Schaub get benched. Schaub owners should probably grab him if they have room, and if you've been decimated at the QB position, he's another solid speculative add.

Brian Griese - Griese posted a monster week 3 against the Bears with 407 yards and 2 TDs, but also with 3 INTs. Like I mentioned last week, Griese has had success with Gruden before, and he knows the offense. He doesn't have great talent around him, but he'll do what he can. With all the QB turnover going on, he's not a bad QB2.

Kerry Collins - Collins has posted very pedestrian numbers behind a run-first Titans offense in Vince Young's absence. He's almost similar to Trent Edwards, although he doesn't have a receiver anywhere near the pedigree of Lee Evans to throw to. His yardage will remain low, but he should have a mostly clean pocket to work with. 200 yards and 1 TD will probably be his norm, and if that's better than what you have on your bench, grab him.

Dan Orlovsky/Drew Stanton - Both of these guys should be a wait-and-see. Kitna isn't officially out yet, and it would take a moron like Matt Leinart not to be at least somewhat productive with a talented duo like Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to throw the ball to. Detroit's offensive line and running game won't do them a lot of favors, so they should continue to throw often should one of them replace Kitna. Keep an eye out to see what happens.

Damon Huard - KC would be retarded not to turn to Huard after the Tyler Thigpen Disaster of week 3. Huard could be solid with Bowe and Gonzalez to throw to, but Croyle is due back in week 6, and there's no reason to believe Edwards won't turn over the reigns back to him once he returns. Don't bother.

Trent Green - NO.

RB:

Steve Slaton - I apologize for over-looking him the previous 2 weeks. He honestly should have been drafted or picked up after the preseason given how good he looked and the mess the Texans had at the position, but if for some odd reason he's available, he's your #1 WW priority.

Rashard Mendenhall - There's no reason he shouldn't have been drafted, but if someone hit the panic button and dropped him after watching Parker go nuts the first week, he's your #2 WW priority behind Slaton.

Willis McGahee - McGahee was knocked out from the game after getting cut on his eyelid, and further reports have indicated that the injury might have resulted from an intentional hit. McGahee's status is unclear. *edit* McGahee has been limited in practice all week, and doesn't seem too optimistic about playing. If you have to use him, you'll need to check the gameday inactive lists.

Rudi Johnson - He probably should have been owned already as well, but given his lackluster performance prior to week 3, who knows? Kevin Smith was likely benched for blitz pickup, and Rudi actually looked good in week 3. He's worth adding to see what role he takes next week as he could become RB3 material should he usurp Smith's starting job. Don't you dare go dropping Kevin Smith, though.

Correll Buckhalter - Westbrook says he'll be ready for week 3, but you never know. Buckhalter was very effective last year in week 4 when Westbrook was out hurt, posting 17 carries for 103 yards with 4 catches for 35 yards on top of that. He'd also be the goal line runner, making him a solid play in week 4 against the Bears.

WR:

Antonio Bryant - Again, should already be owned, but if not, he's the top WR add.

Bobby Engram - Hasselbeck's 2007 BFF is due back after his week 4 bye in week 5, and he should be owned in all leagues. He'll likely become Seattle's leading WR again upon his return.

Deion Branch - Branch is also due back in week 5, and he should also be owned in all leagues. He'll immediately start as soon as he's ready, and Seattle's offense looks much better with Julius Jones leading the way on the ground.

Brandon Lloyd - Lloyd exploded in week 3 against TB with 6 catches for 124 yards and a TD. Given he's emerging as the Bears go-to WR, he's worth grabbing to see how he does over the next couple weeks. It's hard to think that Orton will be consistent enough to make Lloyd worth starting, but he could be a bye-week fill-in against weak defenses at worst.

TE:

I don't see anyone at the TE position worth grabbing right now.

Rams QB Marc Bulger Benched

Out of nowhere, the St. Louis Rams have benched QB Marc Bulger, replacing him with QB Trent Green.

This is ridiculous. Marc Bulger wasn't having a stellar season by any means, but the problems with the St. Louis Rams go far beyond him. Bulger had completed 58.4% of his passes for 519 yards with a 2:2 TD:INT ratio. Hardly good, but not bad either. He's also been sacked 11 times in 3 games. I suppose it's Bulger's fault that a declining Torry Holt is the only decent weapon the team possesses, and the fact they were relying on injury-prone (and now injured) Drew Bennett as the only decent receiving option on the team behind him. I also supposed it was Marc Bulger who did little to upgrade the woeful offensive line this offseason. Trent Green hasn't been good in years, and placing a huge concussion risk behind a dreadful offensive line probably isn't going to end well. The Rams are a joke, and the fact they think Trent Green is a superior option at the QB position is just another reason why. Steven Jackson is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Why don't you bench him, too?

Fantasy Impact: Drop Bulger. He was barely worth a roster spot with the way he was performing, and now that he's not the starter anymore, there's absolutely no reason to continue rostering him.

Monday, September 22, 2008

QBs On The Hot Seat

Given we now have a couple of NFL QBs fighting for their jobs, most of whom were drafted, possibly as a QB1, I felt the need to detail the potential impact here.

Derek Anderson - Anderson has actually been playing bad since late last year, but his overall numbers looked very good, masking some of those problems. He's been flat-out horrible this year so far, completing 46.2% of his passes with an abysmal 2:5 TD:INT ratio. He has played DAL, PIT, and BAL so far, which all boast pretty solid defenses, so it is true that he has faced a tough schedule so far. Still, with a first round pick in Brady Quinn on the bench waiting for his turn, Anderson's job is undeniably on the line in week 4. Luckily he faces Cincinnati, whom he torched for 579 yards and 7 TDs, although they did get him for 4 INTs in the 2nd meeting. If he starts slowly, Quinn will be playing before the game is up. Do NOT start him in week 4, and Quinn will be featured in my waiver wire article tomorrow. A change from Anderson will likely revitalize the offense, but Quinn won't bomb it deep to Edwards like Anderson did last year, although it's questionable whether Edwards would even catch it at this point. Consider a move to Quinn a good thing for Edwards/Winslow/Lewis.

Matt Schaub - Schaub was one of my favorite sleeper QBs and I highly recommended him in my draft guide prior to the season, but he has been a disaster so far through 2 games. He has faced PIT and TEN, which both boast top defenses, so there is a somewhat built-in excuse. He's also completed 60% of his passes, but sports a dreadful 1:5 TD:INT ratio. Andre Johnson dropped 2 TD passes yesterday, including a potential 50 yarder, so while that certainly didn't help Schaub's number, it also doesn't explain 5 INTs with a lost fumble as well. His offensive line isn't helping either. His leash isn't quite as short as Anderson's, I think, but he's still on job security alert. There's rumors that if he doesn't perform well in week 4, Sage Rosenfels will take over in week 5. Unfortunately Schaub gets a very tough matchup against JAX this week, so he'll have his work cut out for him. A move to Rosenfels, as proven last year, would not hurt AJ/Daniels/Slaton.

Jon Kitna - Kitna sprained his knee in week 3 and didn't return to the game, but his performance thus far has been very shaky despite having 2 supremely talented WRs to throw to. Kitna has completed 57.7% of his passes, but only has a mediocre 5:5 TD:INT ratio. In week 2, with the Lions down 27-25, Kitna threw 3 consecutive INTs that lead to 21 GB points to completely blow a winnable game against a divisional rival. In week 3, his 146 yard, 1 TD, 1 INT performance well into the 4th quarter was horrible, although Mike Martz undoubtedly gave the SF defense the knowledge they needed to shut him down. Detroit is in panic mode, and at 0-3, they have little to lose by trying talented youngster Drew Stanton, which seems to be the media's choice over current 2nd stringer Dan Orlovsky. With a bye in week 4 and an ailing Kitna, a potential new starter would have 2 full weeks to get ready, which would be ideal if they make a QB change. Given the lack of experience that Orlovsky and Stanton have, plus the new offensive system they learned this offseason, I would downgrade CJ and Roy a bit if a change is made.

Gus Frerotte / Brian Griese - Frerotte and Griese have already taken over for Tavaris Jackson and Jeff Garcia, respectively. Both are low upside QB2 candidates, but I'd highly prefer Griese, because as he showed yesterday, TB will pass the ball a lot more than MIN will. Just don't expect Griese to be tossing it 60 times again.

Kansas City Chiefs - I thought Damon Huard was supposed to be on speed dial in week 3? Instead, Herm Edwards allowed Tyler Thigpen to stink up the joint. Thigpen did settle down after a disgusting 2/13, 12 yards, 3 INT start. Damon Huard undoubtedly gives KC the best chance to win right now, but clearly the Chiefs aren't concerned about winning right now. I don't even known why I'm wasting everybody's time writing about bad QBs who run a puke offense anyways. Dammit.

Week 4 - Walking Wounded

QB:

Donovan McNabb - McNabb went down early in the 2nd half with a bruised chest, but he returned to and finished the game. There is reportedly no structural damage and McNabb is on track to start in week 4. *edit* McNabb has missed practices all week and might be a gametime decision for gamemenship, but I still expect him to start. Given they play Sunday night, it's real risk unless you have a backup that plays Monday ready to go...

Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben missed a bit of time in the second half with an injured hand, but X-Rays were negative and Big Ben should be ready to go in week 4. Philly pounded him for 8 sacks, so it's no wonder he was a bit banged up. *edit* Big Ben will start in week 4.

Jon Kitna - Kitna went down with a sprained knee late in the second half and did not return to the game. There is reportedly no ligament damage to his knee, which is good news, but he's very much on the hot seat right now as he turned in another poor performance. The Lions have a bye in week 4. *edit* There is no news that Kitna will be replaced as a starter, and given the Lions could have used the extra week off to prepare the new starter, expect him to start in week 5.

RB:

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook's owners suffered a huge scare in week 3 when Westbrook landed awkwardly somewhat on top of a teammate, causing his left leg to buckle oddly as he landed. He did not return to the game, but luckily there appears to be no structural damage to his ankle. Monitor his practice reports, but the early prognosis is positive. *edit* Westbrook is a full blown gametime decision. His owners need to have Buckhalter or another Sunday night/Monday night runner ready in case Westbrook is down.

Willie Parker - Parker left late in week 3 with a sprained knee, and he has been ruled out for week 4. No idea how serious this is, and no MRI results have been posted as of yet. *edit* Parker is now out for both week 4 and 5. Mendenhall has two tough matchups, but can be used as a RB2 given your other alternatives/bye weeks.

Kevin Smith - This stupid fuck was in my lineup in a league this week. He didn't get hurt, but he whiffed on a blitz that led to a 12 yard sack, and he didn't see the field again. Unfortunately for his owners, Rudi Johnson looked very good. Smith is now entrenched in a RBBC.

Darren McFadden - McFadden started week 3, but shared carries with Michael Bush. Apparently he's no worse for the wear after the game, which is good news. He should start again in week 4, but he's no more than a RB3 until he proves that he'll dominate touches over Michael Bush. *edit* McFadden is apparently still limited by his toe and might be hobbled by it again in week 4. He's not a recommended start as he'll be splitting carries again at best.

WR:

David Patten - Patten strained his groin in week 3, which would be a shame as he would likely be the possession receiver on the Saints offense with Colston and Shockey out. Keep an eye on him heading into week 4 if you're planning on using him as a bye-week replacement. *edit* Patten has missed practices this week and is doubtful to play in week 4.

Reggie Brown - Brown returned from his injury, but he didn't have a catch. There is no reason to hang onto him at this point.

Roy Williams - No injury, although with the weekly complaints coming out of his overrated mouth, I'm sure his owners would prefer a bitten tongue.

Joey Galloway - Galloway is still injured, and has a decent chance of missing week 4 as well. *edit* Galloway is out in week 4. Antonio Bryant makes a very nice WR3 candidate in his place.

TE:

Jeremy Shockey - I covered Shockey's hernia surgery (out 3-6 weeks) in my previous post. *edit* He's out for week 4, obviously.

Saints TE Shockey To Undergo Hernia Surgery

New Orleans Saints TE Jeremy Shockey will undergo hernia surgery, and the estimate is that he'll be out from 3-6 weeks.

This injury has supposedly bothered Shockey all season, which helps explain his slow start.

Fantasy Impact: This obviously hurts those who drafted Shockey quite a bit, as he was likely a TE1 on your team. Hopefully you've learned from his injury history and kept a quality TE2 on your roster, but if you haven't, then waiver wire guys like John Carlson have probably already been claimed. I'll make sure to cover some potential TEs in my week 4 WW section coming up tomorrow given this significant injury. Billy Miller will help fill the role, but given his involvement over the past couple seasons, don't expect too much.

One might think the loss of Colston and Shockey are a death blow to the Saints passing game, and while their losses obviously thin out the pass catching talent pool of the Saints, it's not like you should be benching Drew Brees now. Shockey wasn't a part of the Saints high-flying passing attack the last two seasons, while Colston has missed a couple games, and been limited in others with various ailments over the past two seasons as well. You can't expect the best of Brees in the next month or so, but he'll still be a solid QB1 that will make the best use of those around him. Expect Robert Meachem's role to increase as he stands the most to benefit from the absence of both the Saints' top receiving talents. Also expect Bush to continue getting lots of touches.