The Seattle Mariners have traded for SP Erik Bedard. The Baltimore Orioles have received OF Adam Jones, RP George Sherrill, RP Chris Tillman, RP
Fantasy Impact: Erik Bedard, much like Johan Santana, is moving to a much improved situation. He's moving to one of the best pitcher's ballparks in the AL, in a weaker offensive division, in front of a better offense, and with a better supporting bullpen. With the Orioles dealing Miguel Tejada, they look to be set on trotting out one of the worst lineups in baseball this year, so while the Mariners are hardly an offensive machine, the upgrade is pretty large. This should lead to Bedard building off of last year's breakthrough season, and the ballpark/division switch should help him post similar numbers. Be careful as Bedard has only had one ace season and hasn't lasted 200 innings yet, but last season's injury was not arm-related, and he should post an ace-like season and have a solid chance at 200 innings. He'll likely be taken 3rd after Santana and Peavy, and I think he has a great chance to live up to that draft slot in relation to the rest of the pitchers. He'll probably go too early for when I'd recommend taking an ace, however.
Much like the Twins, the centerpiece of the deal is a top OF prospect in Adam Jones. He has bigger fantasy potential than Carlos Gomez for the short term, and perhaps the long term as well, but his 2008 value will depend on playing time and his position in the batting order. He's worth keeping an eye on, but certainly not drafting as anything more than a reserve OF.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Johan Santana Traded To The Mets
The New York Mets have traded for SP Johan Santana. The Minnesota Twins received OF Carlos Gomez, SP Deolis Guerra, SP Kevin Mulvey, and SP Phillip Humber.
Fantasy Impact: The initial reaction to this trade would be that Santana's fantasy stock just went through the roof. On the surface, this appears to be the case. He's moving to the weaker league, which should mean more Ks as he'll face pitchers and pinch hitters rather than designated hitters. He's moving to a stronger team (although with a weaker bullpen), which should mean more Ws. He's also moving to a bigger ballpark, which combined with the weaker hitters, should mean a stronger ERA/WHIP. This is definitely a boon for his fantasy potential in 2008, but I still feel he's over-valued. He was a top 3 pick last year on average behind Pujols and Reyes, and he figures to go in the top 5 this year among Pujols, A-Rod, Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. He's the surest bet among pitchers, but since there's so much turnover from year to year among the top pitchers, you'll have no problem finding a steady ace later on in the draft. Starting pitchers, even ones as dominant as Johan Santana, still only contribute to 4 catagories. When you start looking at the middle to lower half of the first round where guys like David Wright, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun are taken, you just can't substitute the 5 catagory contributions those guys add to your team as easily as you can a starting pitcher. 2008 very well could be Santana's best season yet, potentially creating a dominant performance in the 4 SP catagories, but it's not enough for me.
Among the players headed to the Twins, the only player with a chance of making a contribution in 2008 is Carlos Gomez. That depends on the playing time he'll log in CF for the Twins, plus if he'll hit in the leadoff spot when he does play. It's worth keeping in mind, but as a rookie, temper your most optimistic expectations.
Fantasy Impact: The initial reaction to this trade would be that Santana's fantasy stock just went through the roof. On the surface, this appears to be the case. He's moving to the weaker league, which should mean more Ks as he'll face pitchers and pinch hitters rather than designated hitters. He's moving to a stronger team (although with a weaker bullpen), which should mean more Ws. He's also moving to a bigger ballpark, which combined with the weaker hitters, should mean a stronger ERA/WHIP. This is definitely a boon for his fantasy potential in 2008, but I still feel he's over-valued. He was a top 3 pick last year on average behind Pujols and Reyes, and he figures to go in the top 5 this year among Pujols, A-Rod, Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. He's the surest bet among pitchers, but since there's so much turnover from year to year among the top pitchers, you'll have no problem finding a steady ace later on in the draft. Starting pitchers, even ones as dominant as Johan Santana, still only contribute to 4 catagories. When you start looking at the middle to lower half of the first round where guys like David Wright, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun are taken, you just can't substitute the 5 catagory contributions those guys add to your team as easily as you can a starting pitcher. 2008 very well could be Santana's best season yet, potentially creating a dominant performance in the 4 SP catagories, but it's not enough for me.
Among the players headed to the Twins, the only player with a chance of making a contribution in 2008 is Carlos Gomez. That depends on the playing time he'll log in CF for the Twins, plus if he'll hit in the leadoff spot when he does play. It's worth keeping in mind, but as a rookie, temper your most optimistic expectations.
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