QB:
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has a big arm, but his accuracy at the college level concerns me a bit. I've read that one of the best statistics to consider when determining success as a future NFL QB is the combination of college starts (experience) and completion percentage (accuracy). Stafford certainly has the experience, but his completion percentage didn't reach 60% until his senior year. He moves into a transitioning NFL offense that does boast a stud #1 WR in Calvin Johnson and an emerging RB in Kevin Smith. They have little to nothing at the WR position behind CJ, and their TE position is led by fellow rookie Brandon Pettigrew. There's growing speculation that he'll start in week 1, and given only Daunte Culpepper is in the way, that might not be far fetched.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez is on the opposite end of the 2 category spectrum as Stafford. Sanchez only started 1 full season, but he completed an impressive 65.8% of his passes last year. Sanchez enters an offense that he'll likely lead in week 1, and he has the intangible leadership qualities and personality that one looks for in a starting QB. The Jets have a quality offensive line, and they boast a solid trio of RBs in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and rookie Shonn Greene. The problem is that Jerricho Cotchery is not a true #1 WR, and there's some interesting but unproven talent behind him. They also boast a great receiving TE in Dustin Keller. All in all he has a solid situation around him, and a great defense on the other side of the ball. There's a possibility he emerges as a QB2 in 2009.
The rest of the QBs drafted do not have a chance of starting in 2009 except in an emergency.
RB:
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno may be 3rd on the depth chart right now, but it's going to take a poor performance by him in the preseason to keep him from being the unquestioned starter. With his receiving talent and willingness to block, he'll be the 3rd down RB at the very worst to start the season. The only thing Moreno doesn't possess is top-end speed, but NE's offensive system that McDaniels is bringing to Denver doesn't need it. Moreno was the best talent in a weak offensive draft class, and he should be the most valuable fantasy RB in 2009.
Donald Brown - Yes, the Colts have Joseph Addai, but he wore down badly in 2007, and suffered through an injury-filled 2008 as well. It's clear that Addai is no feature RB, thus the addition of Donald Brown. Brown is another heady, do-it-all RB just like Addai was coming out of college. It's possible that Brown could post a big preseason and take Addai's job, but odds are he'll play the role Addai did in 2006 as the slightly lesser tag team partner that alternates some good games with those where he doesn't get the ball enough.
Chris Wells - Goodbye Edge, hello Beanie. Tim Hightower seems slated as more of a change-of-pace RB given his erratic play, so Wells should immediately have a chance to win the 1st and 2nd down RB position for the Cardinals. His limitations in receiving and blocking will keep him from seeing the field as much as I expect Moreno to, and Hightower already proved to be an asset in those situations as a rookie. The biggest problem is that Hightower was a solid goal line RB last season, so Wells will have a challenge to win those duties. There's too many role question marks to take him as anything more than a RB3.
LeSean McCoy - McCoy's skill set is eerily similar to Brian Westbrook when he came out of college. McCoy is extremely explosive, but has question marks when it comes to inside running. McCoy is very interesting as Westbrook's ankle surgery could limit him to start the 2009 season, and he'll have every opportunity to win the backup RB position in the preseason. His receiving skills and explosiveness should get him on the field regardless.
Shonn Greene - Greene was really interesting when Thomas Jones was holding out, but with TJ back, his value will be dependent on TJ breaking down this season, which remains a possibility at his age. Greene is a powerful inside runner who complements Leon Washington very well, so he would immediately be an RB2 candidate should TJ go down. He'll be 3rd string to start the season barring an injury.
Glen Coffee - Coffee will be a pure backup for Frank Gore to start the season. He doesn't offer nearly the receiving game prowess that Gore offers, so his value certainly won't be the same should Gore get hurt. He'll be given the chance to win the backup RB position.
Andre Brown - Brown was drafted by the Giants to essentially replace Derrick Ward's roster spot, although Ahmad Bradshaw will slide into Ward's role in the offense. While 3rd string, the potent Giants rushing attack and Brandon Jacobs' fragility warrant keeping Brown in mind.
James Davis - Here's a sleeper to file away in your memory bank. Jamal Lewis is certainly slowing down, and while Jerome Harrison is an explosive talent, he doesn't really profile as a 20 carry RB, possibly opening the door for the bigger Davis should Lewis suffer an injury or simply run ineffectively.
Bernard Scott - Another sleeper to keep in mind. With only Cedric Benson owning a guaranteed role at RB, Scott has a chance to impress and potentially carve out a significant role should something happen to Benson. Brian Leonard and Kenny Watson start out ahead of him on the depth chart, but Leonard has never impressed as a RB when Steven Jackson got hurt in STL, and Watson is aging with injury concerns.
Rashad Jennings - Jennings was the last RB taken, and played at a small school in Liberty, but scouts leading up to the draft were impressed with his skillset. MJD and Greg Jones will handle most of the carries, but should an injury befall one of them, Jennings would have a chance at a sizeable role in the offense should he beat out Chauncey Washington and Alvin Pearman to stay off the practice squad.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
TE Tony Gonzalez Traded To Atlanta Falcons
The Kansas City Chiefs have traded TE Tony Gonzalez to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2010 3rd round pick. KC's new GM Scott Pioli has an outstanding draft history, so this is a win for both teams. The Chiefs will likely make good use of the draft pick, and Atlanta gets a secondary receiving target that they sorely needed opposite Roddy White.
Fantasy Impact: Tony Gonzalez blew up in the 2nd half of 2009 as Kansas City transformed into a spread offense that allowed Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy football last year. He now moves to a more conservative run-first offense, but an offense that could take another step forward in 2009. Matt Ryan is a star in the making, Roddy White has proven that he's an elite NFL WR, and that will keep the middle opened up for Gonzalez to make plays. Turner is a beast on the ground, and he'll keep the offense plenty balanced. I expect Atlanta to pass more in 2009 as the coaching staff will feel more comfortable with Matt Ryan, and while I don't expect Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE again (ATL won't get him the ball as much as KC did last year), he's essentially making a lateral movement that will allow him to stay in the top tier of TEs. This transaction could shoot Matt Ryan into QB1 territory, and it should help keep Roddy White from suffering a slump from the added attention he'll receive this season. Atlanta certainly lacks talent at the other WR position, and adding an elite TE option should help this offense overcome the problem that usually creates.
Fantasy Impact: Tony Gonzalez blew up in the 2nd half of 2009 as Kansas City transformed into a spread offense that allowed Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy football last year. He now moves to a more conservative run-first offense, but an offense that could take another step forward in 2009. Matt Ryan is a star in the making, Roddy White has proven that he's an elite NFL WR, and that will keep the middle opened up for Gonzalez to make plays. Turner is a beast on the ground, and he'll keep the offense plenty balanced. I expect Atlanta to pass more in 2009 as the coaching staff will feel more comfortable with Matt Ryan, and while I don't expect Gonzalez to finish as the #1 TE again (ATL won't get him the ball as much as KC did last year), he's essentially making a lateral movement that will allow him to stay in the top tier of TEs. This transaction could shoot Matt Ryan into QB1 territory, and it should help keep Roddy White from suffering a slump from the added attention he'll receive this season. Atlanta certainly lacks talent at the other WR position, and adding an elite TE option should help this offense overcome the problem that usually creates.
QB Jay Cutler Traded To Chicago Bears
Better late than never, right? It's about time to start looking at fantasy football again. :D
The Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for a 2009 1st round pick, 2009 3rd round pick, 2010 1st round pick, and Kyle Orton. The Bears also received a 2009 5th round pick.
It was quite a price to pay for the Bears, but given the team's notorious problems at the position and their inability to solve it either via the draft or free agency, I think the made the right move. Plus, their history of developing 1st round picks isn't the greatest, either. Obviously as a Bears fan I'm giddy about it, but even stepping back as a neutral NFL fan, it makes a lot of sense.
McDaniels is a moron by immediately alienating and then trading the best player on his team. He is getting an intelligent QB in return whom he can mold into a stop-gap for a future QB at some point, and I think Orton will be a solid QB for them. He already burned one of Denver's 1st rounders to move up for some random CB in the 2009 draft, so there goes that advantage from the trade.
Fantasy Impact: Obviously Cutler's value takes a hit as he moves from a sure-fire top 5 QB to someone who should finish more around the 8-10 range. Cutler is going to move from one of the most pass-happy offenses flush with receiving talent (Marshall, Royal, Scheffler) to a run-heavy offense void of elite receiving talent. However, Chicago has managed to produce a QB1 in the past in Grossman (1st half of 2006), granted he did it with Berrian and Muhammad, two legit receiving talents. Kyle Orton also had a 5 week stretch in 2008 (weeks 3-7) where he posted QB1 numbers as well, so it's possible, especially from a far more talented QB. It was obvious from Grossman's 2006 performance that Ron Turner can dial up a potent passing attack when he has a QB, and he'll get a chance to prove it this year. Cutler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as it was when he was in Denver, but his floor isn't nearly as low as some may think. Greg Olsen is primed to take a huge step forward as a potential elite TE1 this year, and Devin Hester could surprise as a WR3 possibility. Matt Forte's value will also increase with the additional scoring chances this offense is likely to create in 2009.
Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler will definitely see a value hit, especially Marshall as his deep threat ability will be kept in check by Orton's weaker arm. Eddie Royal will also see less deep balls, but he'll be catching a ton of passes in NE's knock-off offense.
The Denver Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears for a 2009 1st round pick, 2009 3rd round pick, 2010 1st round pick, and Kyle Orton. The Bears also received a 2009 5th round pick.
It was quite a price to pay for the Bears, but given the team's notorious problems at the position and their inability to solve it either via the draft or free agency, I think the made the right move. Plus, their history of developing 1st round picks isn't the greatest, either. Obviously as a Bears fan I'm giddy about it, but even stepping back as a neutral NFL fan, it makes a lot of sense.
McDaniels is a moron by immediately alienating and then trading the best player on his team. He is getting an intelligent QB in return whom he can mold into a stop-gap for a future QB at some point, and I think Orton will be a solid QB for them. He already burned one of Denver's 1st rounders to move up for some random CB in the 2009 draft, so there goes that advantage from the trade.
Fantasy Impact: Obviously Cutler's value takes a hit as he moves from a sure-fire top 5 QB to someone who should finish more around the 8-10 range. Cutler is going to move from one of the most pass-happy offenses flush with receiving talent (Marshall, Royal, Scheffler) to a run-heavy offense void of elite receiving talent. However, Chicago has managed to produce a QB1 in the past in Grossman (1st half of 2006), granted he did it with Berrian and Muhammad, two legit receiving talents. Kyle Orton also had a 5 week stretch in 2008 (weeks 3-7) where he posted QB1 numbers as well, so it's possible, especially from a far more talented QB. It was obvious from Grossman's 2006 performance that Ron Turner can dial up a potent passing attack when he has a QB, and he'll get a chance to prove it this year. Cutler's ceiling isn't nearly as high as it was when he was in Denver, but his floor isn't nearly as low as some may think. Greg Olsen is primed to take a huge step forward as a potential elite TE1 this year, and Devin Hester could surprise as a WR3 possibility. Matt Forte's value will also increase with the additional scoring chances this offense is likely to create in 2009.
Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler will definitely see a value hit, especially Marshall as his deep threat ability will be kept in check by Orton's weaker arm. Eddie Royal will also see less deep balls, but he'll be catching a ton of passes in NE's knock-off offense.
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