It's been a long hard road for my brain as I sorted through the candidates for the #3 pick. Here's my thoughts on the top 3 after much consideration:
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately he is stuck on a very mediocre, possibly bad offensive situation. His offensive line is already banged up a bit, losing their two top backups (Brandon Gorin and Mark Setterstrom), and Pace suffered a scare while injuring the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. Their starting line is intact, for now, but they have no depth. Torry Holt is still a great WR, but he isn't the deep threat he once was after several years of knee problems. Isaac Bruce is gone, and he is replaced by Drew Bennett, who was miserable as their slot WR last year. Bennett has reportedly had a good camp, but the Rams NEED him to step up to keep attention away from Holt. There's nothing behind Bennett worth mentioning. Randy McMichael could re-emerge under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who has a history of getting the most out of his TEs (KC - Gonzalez, WAS - Cooley). Saunders runs a great scheme, similar to Martz, so the transition won't be so bad. I've already detailed the injury concerns of his 2006 370 f/carry season and what it means for him moving forward, and now we have to add in the holdout. Dick Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, noted a study that he did showing that players who hold out have shown a higher likelihood of getting injured. That's 2 strikes against Jackson. All in all, that's some scary territory coupled with an uncertain offensive situation.
Joseph Addai - Joseph Addai exploded onto the scene last year, but as I noted in his wrap-up, he posted an alarming slide in the 2nd half. Addai simply has never been a workhorse back at either the collegiate level at LSU, or the pro level until last season. Addai also isn't a special RB...he's simply a well-rounded RB who does everything good, but not great. With the uncertain health regarding Manning, Addai could NOT carry this team by himself. He's just not that type of RB. Addai is more reliant on his situation than any of the top 3 RBs, so losing Manning would hurt his value. He's on a great offense if everything is going well, does provide solid value in the passing game, and he scores as a very good short yardage back. However, he has a very annoying propensity to get knicked up and come out of games, so I really question if you can rely on him for 16 games, and most importantly, down the stretch.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook took his game to a higher level last year, and odds are if you had him on your team, you probably made the playoffs. His incredible ability in the passing game makes it very hard for him to post a bad week, and he posted his best rushing season. There's concern about the fact he's missed games with his knee over the past couple years, but he tends to always play through it despite not practicing too often. With Curtis out for about half the year and Reggie Brown not taking a step forward, it seems as though the Eagles will have to rely on him as their offensive centerpiece once again. McNabb's health should present a more consistent Eagles offense this year, so perhaps Westbrook can turn in his career high in TDs. The knee is a bit of a concern, but injury is a slight concern for all top runners. I think Westbrook is the wisest choice of the top three given that he has a consistent and arguably improved offense around him with McNabb healthy, he is a stud from week 1 to week 16 despite a missed game here and there, and he's in his prime.
It's hard not to take the talent of Steven Jackson, but I think Westbrook represents the best option of the three RBs off the board after LT/AP. Both have injury concerns, but there are some real scary facts working against Jackson's ability to stay healthy this year right now.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Rams RB Steven Jackson Ends Holdout
St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson has ended his holdout.
Jackson will report to the Rams this evening, and he'll likely begin practicing tomorrow. No news of a contract extension accompanied this holdout termination, so it looks like the Rams were smart to stand their ground.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson will be a highly motivated RB this season if he didn't sign a new contract. He'll be running for a big paycheck. His talent is undeniable, but I honestly don't see much of a difference between Jackson and Frank Gore. Both RBs are among the most talented RBs in the entire NFL, offering a powerful running style with the ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. Both have questionable offensive lines and questionable supporting passing attacks, which begs the question of exactly how many times they will score this season. Jackson holds a slight edge as his surrounding situation is a bit better and isn't transitioning to a new offensive scheme, so he has the advantage of offensive continuity. As I mentioned in my ADP analysis, history is not on his side considering the high workload he endured in 2006.
Essentially Jackson's fantasy value boils down to if you believe he'll stay healthy. I have the #3 pick in a fantasy draft this weekend, and I'm at least considering Jackson, although I'm favoring Addai right now. I've ruled out Westbrook because I don't believe the Eagles will give him the ball as much this year with McNabb healthy, and he has his own injury concerns. Jackson will have enough time to get ready for week 1 with 2.5 weeks of practice time until their first game. There's much debate about these 3 currently. Addai is the safest bet, while Jackson offers the most upside as the centerpiece of his offense.
Update: The Rams and Jackson have reported agreed to a new contract. While it would have been a nice bonus to have Jackson running for new money, I wouldn't let this update affect your thinking of him.
Jackson will report to the Rams this evening, and he'll likely begin practicing tomorrow. No news of a contract extension accompanied this holdout termination, so it looks like the Rams were smart to stand their ground.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson will be a highly motivated RB this season if he didn't sign a new contract. He'll be running for a big paycheck. His talent is undeniable, but I honestly don't see much of a difference between Jackson and Frank Gore. Both RBs are among the most talented RBs in the entire NFL, offering a powerful running style with the ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. Both have questionable offensive lines and questionable supporting passing attacks, which begs the question of exactly how many times they will score this season. Jackson holds a slight edge as his surrounding situation is a bit better and isn't transitioning to a new offensive scheme, so he has the advantage of offensive continuity. As I mentioned in my ADP analysis, history is not on his side considering the high workload he endured in 2006.
Essentially Jackson's fantasy value boils down to if you believe he'll stay healthy. I have the #3 pick in a fantasy draft this weekend, and I'm at least considering Jackson, although I'm favoring Addai right now. I've ruled out Westbrook because I don't believe the Eagles will give him the ball as much this year with McNabb healthy, and he has his own injury concerns. Jackson will have enough time to get ready for week 1 with 2.5 weeks of practice time until their first game. There's much debate about these 3 currently. Addai is the safest bet, while Jackson offers the most upside as the centerpiece of his offense.
Update: The Rams and Jackson have reported agreed to a new contract. While it would have been a nice bonus to have Jackson running for new money, I wouldn't let this update affect your thinking of him.
Eagles WR Kevin Curtis Undergoes Hernia Surgery
Philadelphia Eagles' WR Kevin Curtis will undergo hernia surgery.
His timetable is unknown, but he certainly won't be ready for the start of the regular season. It remains to be seen how many weeks he'll actually miss.
Fantasy Impact: Kevin Curtis can obviously no longer be relied upon as a WR3. The uncertainty of his recovery time makes his value very tricky to predict, but I'm of the mindset to take him as a WR5 and nothing more. Once he returns, he should be a candidate to post WR3 numbers in what should be a solid Eagles offense, but these injuries are tough to figure out.
Reggie Brown is dealing with his own hamstring injury, and if he can get himself ready for the start of the season, he'll have a chance to dominate the passing game targets as the unquestioned #1 receiver on the team. He did not look good prior to his injury, but he's now an interesting boom/bust WR4 to be considered once you have your starting WRs already drafted. Rookie DeSean Jackson stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's a speed threat much like Curtis, so he's worth considered as a WR5 with interesting upside. He has impressed so far in camp and in preseason games. Donovan McNabb should be downgraded slightly, but he's no stranger to performing with mediocre WRs, as that's all he did prior to Owens joining the team.
His timetable is unknown, but he certainly won't be ready for the start of the regular season. It remains to be seen how many weeks he'll actually miss.
Fantasy Impact: Kevin Curtis can obviously no longer be relied upon as a WR3. The uncertainty of his recovery time makes his value very tricky to predict, but I'm of the mindset to take him as a WR5 and nothing more. Once he returns, he should be a candidate to post WR3 numbers in what should be a solid Eagles offense, but these injuries are tough to figure out.
Reggie Brown is dealing with his own hamstring injury, and if he can get himself ready for the start of the season, he'll have a chance to dominate the passing game targets as the unquestioned #1 receiver on the team. He did not look good prior to his injury, but he's now an interesting boom/bust WR4 to be considered once you have your starting WRs already drafted. Rookie DeSean Jackson stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's a speed threat much like Curtis, so he's worth considered as a WR5 with interesting upside. He has impressed so far in camp and in preseason games. Donovan McNabb should be downgraded slightly, but he's no stranger to performing with mediocre WRs, as that's all he did prior to Owens joining the team.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Preseason Week 2 Player Notes
QB:
Alex Smith - J.T. O'Sullivan started in preseason week 2 again, further showing that he has a legit chance at being SF's opening week QB. Alex Smith isn't dead in the water yet, but he really needs to start turning heads in practice to take this job by week 1. If you're drafting now, you can safely ignore him in your draft, as I doubt many people would take a chance on him. He's someone you don't want to forget, however.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a knee sprain, but it doesn't appear to be serious at the moment. If you're thinking about taking him as a QB2 if you have someone like Brady and want an interesting backup, then I wouldn't change my stance on him yet.
Jon Kitna - Kitna has been almost perfect in his first 2 preseason games. Much was made about the fact that Martz has left and Kitna won't be throwing as much, but like I mentioned in the writeups for Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the passing game is going to focus more on the talented WR duo. They're also switching to a zone blocking scheme for the running game, and that will take a while to become successful. This should allow for Kitna to post very solid numbers and is a recommended QB2. He's going to make his fair share of mistakes as he always has, but he should be a reliable backup QB.
Marc Bulger - Bulger is getting pummeled, just like last year. He left with a strained shoulder, and given he's had shoulder problems before, it's a concern. He'll likely be drafted as some team's starter, so make sure that you're not that team.
RB:
Steven Jackson - He's still holding out. Given the lackluster offense around him, the history of RBs with the 1 season of high workloads, and now the holdout threatening his availability and conditioning for week 1, there are much safer RB1 options in your draft.
Kevin Smith - The Lions officially named him the team's starter at RB, although most of us knew this when he was drafted. It's a fact now. He's not a bad late RB2, and he's a very good RB3.
Ahman Green - He's already hurt. Don't draft him. Slaton and Darius Walker are both worth speculating on late in drafts in terms of a Houston RB with a chance to carve out some fantasy value. I think Walker is more of a featured RB type than Slaton, who's more of a change-of-pace RB.
Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson - Rudi was scratched with more problems in his hamstring. Do not draft him. Chris Perry was given the start and wasn't overly impressive, but it's obvious the Bengals will try to get what they can from Perry. Perry is plenty talented, but he's had injury problems dating all the way back to college. I still think Kenny Watson is the guy to draft here and wait for.
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart - I'm very conflicted on this situation right now. Williams was solid, but not overly impressive in week 2. Stewart finally saw the field, and only gained 4 yards on 3 carries, but this was his first game action in a while and you shouldn't have expected too much. Williams is a talented RB, but you really have to wonder why the coaching staff went with DeShaun Foster the past 2 years. They had to see something in Williams they didn't like. I think it's pretty clear that Williams will be the starter in week 1, but it'll be an interesting battle from there. I still think Stewart is the greater talent, and if you can nab him as a RB3, he's a very interesting upside pick.
Selvin Young/Andre Hall - Hall stole goal line duties from Young in preseason week 2 on both drives. Selvin Young's fantasy value took a hit with this development, and I'm thinking that Andre Hall is another late round RB worth speculating with, especially if he's going to be scoring the TDs.
Ray Rice - Rice had another outstanding preseason performance this weekend. Rice is highly recommended as a RB4 as he would be RB2 material should anything happen to Willis McGahee, and he might even start week 1 if McGahee isn't recovered by then. I think the coaching staff will probably feel there's no rush to get McGahee back.
Ricky Williams - He's back, baby! He had another great preseason game in week 2 as is also recommended as a RB3. With Ronnie Brown not looking so good, Ricky could have a big role early in the season. It would be smart for the Phins to ride Ricky this year and allow Brown to recover, but who knows what their plans are.
Michael Turner - Turner exploded for 114 yards on 4 carries. I wouldn't get too excited about this as his surrounding offense is pretty lackluster, and he's not going to be too involved in the passing game. However, he remains a solid RB2 as he'll probably approach 300 carries and maybe 8 TDs or so.
Chris Johnson - Johnson had another great game in week 2, but beware of the hype machine on this kid. He's incredibly explosive, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with LenDale White primary with Johnson worked in as well. I still compare this to the Deuce/Bush split we saw in 2006 from the Saints.
WR:
Calvin Johnson - CJ has been downright nasty so far, and it's clear the back injury that really slowed him down last year is no longer a problem. CJ has a chance to skyrocket into the top 10 this year, and he's highly recommended as a WR2 in the 4th/5th rounds. He's going to be featured quite a bit this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall posted 59 yards and a TD in week 2, showing he's just fine and ready for the season. He'll miss the first 2 weeks, but do NOT let him slip too far. He'll be WR1 material, like Steve Smith, when he returns from suspension.
Matt Jones - Remember him? He'll have a chance to play a big role in Jacksonville with the plethora of WR injuries they've suffered. He still remains plenty talented and is an interesting WR5 flier pick to see what happens.
Antonio Bryant - I still like him as a sleeper, but it's been pointed out that he's running behind Joey Galloway so far. Unless he moves across the field from him, he'll be stuck on the bench until Galloway gets hurt. Continue to monitor his position. If he moves across and gets a chance to start opposite Galloway, which makes the most sense given his competition would be Ike Hilliard, he'll be a major sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Ginn put up a solid week 2 performance, and he's another intersting WR5 option. He'll start and be the go-to guy in the passing game, giving him some upside. His deep speed doesn't match Pennington's weak arm, but if he learns how to run his intermediate routes well, he'll become a fantasy factor.
Reggie Brown - I originally liked him as a bounce-back candidate this year, but he's continued to struggle in the preseason, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I wouldn't take him as anything more than a WR4, and even that might be overdrafting him.
Alex Smith - J.T. O'Sullivan started in preseason week 2 again, further showing that he has a legit chance at being SF's opening week QB. Alex Smith isn't dead in the water yet, but he really needs to start turning heads in practice to take this job by week 1. If you're drafting now, you can safely ignore him in your draft, as I doubt many people would take a chance on him. He's someone you don't want to forget, however.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a knee sprain, but it doesn't appear to be serious at the moment. If you're thinking about taking him as a QB2 if you have someone like Brady and want an interesting backup, then I wouldn't change my stance on him yet.
Jon Kitna - Kitna has been almost perfect in his first 2 preseason games. Much was made about the fact that Martz has left and Kitna won't be throwing as much, but like I mentioned in the writeups for Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the passing game is going to focus more on the talented WR duo. They're also switching to a zone blocking scheme for the running game, and that will take a while to become successful. This should allow for Kitna to post very solid numbers and is a recommended QB2. He's going to make his fair share of mistakes as he always has, but he should be a reliable backup QB.
Marc Bulger - Bulger is getting pummeled, just like last year. He left with a strained shoulder, and given he's had shoulder problems before, it's a concern. He'll likely be drafted as some team's starter, so make sure that you're not that team.
RB:
Steven Jackson - He's still holding out. Given the lackluster offense around him, the history of RBs with the 1 season of high workloads, and now the holdout threatening his availability and conditioning for week 1, there are much safer RB1 options in your draft.
Kevin Smith - The Lions officially named him the team's starter at RB, although most of us knew this when he was drafted. It's a fact now. He's not a bad late RB2, and he's a very good RB3.
Ahman Green - He's already hurt. Don't draft him. Slaton and Darius Walker are both worth speculating on late in drafts in terms of a Houston RB with a chance to carve out some fantasy value. I think Walker is more of a featured RB type than Slaton, who's more of a change-of-pace RB.
Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson - Rudi was scratched with more problems in his hamstring. Do not draft him. Chris Perry was given the start and wasn't overly impressive, but it's obvious the Bengals will try to get what they can from Perry. Perry is plenty talented, but he's had injury problems dating all the way back to college. I still think Kenny Watson is the guy to draft here and wait for.
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart - I'm very conflicted on this situation right now. Williams was solid, but not overly impressive in week 2. Stewart finally saw the field, and only gained 4 yards on 3 carries, but this was his first game action in a while and you shouldn't have expected too much. Williams is a talented RB, but you really have to wonder why the coaching staff went with DeShaun Foster the past 2 years. They had to see something in Williams they didn't like. I think it's pretty clear that Williams will be the starter in week 1, but it'll be an interesting battle from there. I still think Stewart is the greater talent, and if you can nab him as a RB3, he's a very interesting upside pick.
Selvin Young/Andre Hall - Hall stole goal line duties from Young in preseason week 2 on both drives. Selvin Young's fantasy value took a hit with this development, and I'm thinking that Andre Hall is another late round RB worth speculating with, especially if he's going to be scoring the TDs.
Ray Rice - Rice had another outstanding preseason performance this weekend. Rice is highly recommended as a RB4 as he would be RB2 material should anything happen to Willis McGahee, and he might even start week 1 if McGahee isn't recovered by then. I think the coaching staff will probably feel there's no rush to get McGahee back.
Ricky Williams - He's back, baby! He had another great preseason game in week 2 as is also recommended as a RB3. With Ronnie Brown not looking so good, Ricky could have a big role early in the season. It would be smart for the Phins to ride Ricky this year and allow Brown to recover, but who knows what their plans are.
Michael Turner - Turner exploded for 114 yards on 4 carries. I wouldn't get too excited about this as his surrounding offense is pretty lackluster, and he's not going to be too involved in the passing game. However, he remains a solid RB2 as he'll probably approach 300 carries and maybe 8 TDs or so.
Chris Johnson - Johnson had another great game in week 2, but beware of the hype machine on this kid. He's incredibly explosive, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with LenDale White primary with Johnson worked in as well. I still compare this to the Deuce/Bush split we saw in 2006 from the Saints.
WR:
Calvin Johnson - CJ has been downright nasty so far, and it's clear the back injury that really slowed him down last year is no longer a problem. CJ has a chance to skyrocket into the top 10 this year, and he's highly recommended as a WR2 in the 4th/5th rounds. He's going to be featured quite a bit this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall posted 59 yards and a TD in week 2, showing he's just fine and ready for the season. He'll miss the first 2 weeks, but do NOT let him slip too far. He'll be WR1 material, like Steve Smith, when he returns from suspension.
Matt Jones - Remember him? He'll have a chance to play a big role in Jacksonville with the plethora of WR injuries they've suffered. He still remains plenty talented and is an interesting WR5 flier pick to see what happens.
Antonio Bryant - I still like him as a sleeper, but it's been pointed out that he's running behind Joey Galloway so far. Unless he moves across the field from him, he'll be stuck on the bench until Galloway gets hurt. Continue to monitor his position. If he moves across and gets a chance to start opposite Galloway, which makes the most sense given his competition would be Ike Hilliard, he'll be a major sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Ginn put up a solid week 2 performance, and he's another intersting WR5 option. He'll start and be the go-to guy in the passing game, giving him some upside. His deep speed doesn't match Pennington's weak arm, but if he learns how to run his intermediate routes well, he'll become a fantasy factor.
Reggie Brown - I originally liked him as a bounce-back candidate this year, but he's continued to struggle in the preseason, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I wouldn't take him as anything more than a WR4, and even that might be overdrafting him.
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