Cleveland Browns RB Montario Hardesty tore his ACL during the preseason game against the Bears last night.
Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Sunday, August 29, 2010
My Big Draft
I had my most important league's draft last night, so I wanted to take a step back, examine the results, and see how things went. It's a 12 team league with a standard starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST. Scoring is standard as well with 30 passing yards/1 point, 10 rushing.receiving yards/1 point, 6 points for TDs, and -2 for turnovers. I picked 5th overall.
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
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