Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Week 4: Team by Team Notes

I wanted to start writing a column briefly going through each team and talking about fantasy impact for the upcoming week.  So, here goes:

Arizona Cardinals - Derek Anderson is killing this offense, most notably Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitzgerald's knee isn't helping matters, either.  Fitz can be started, but don't expect big numbers.  It might be worth seeing what Max Hall can do because we all know what Derek Anderson is, and most importantly, what he isn't.  Beanie Wells returned healthy last week, and he's set to assume feature RB duties.  Get him back into your starting lineups, and get Hightower out.

Atlanta Falcons - Turner looked just fine, and Matt Ryan continues to throw the ball well.  White was held in check most of the day by Jabari Greer, but he still churned out a nice stat line and continues to make the most of his targets.  Tony Gonzalez was a new man last week while posting an impressive day and looking spry after the catch.  No worries about him moving forward.  Harry Douglas simply isn't doing anything at the other WR spot, so the Falcons are probably looking forward to getting Michael Jenkins back.

Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco finally had a nice game last week, and he should flirt with borderline QB1 numbers after his cold start.  Anquan Boldin was all over the field.  Boldin is a WR1 when he's healthy, but if you could parlay his hot start into a trade for someone like Roddy White or Reggie Wayne, do it as Boldin is always a poor bet to play 16 games.  Ray Rice will be a game time decision this week after suffering a knee bruise last week, but luckily they play early, so make sure you have an alternative ready just in case.  McGahee will be the feature RB should Rice not go.

Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards is gone, much to the chagrin of opposing defenses.  Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't very good, but he at least tries to move the ball down the field.  It's better new for Lee Evans' owners, but Evans is still only bye week material currently.  Marshawn Lynch is the new bell cow for this offense, although they'll often be behind and not milking the clock, so his touches will be limited on a weekly basis.  Odds are he's being showcased for a trade, so keep Fred Jackson in deep reserve if you can afford it.

Carolina Panthers - The quarterback play is finally taking a toll on this rushing attack.  Jimmy Clausen looked completely over-matched, and while he'll get another start this week, his leash is short.  One more performance like last week is going to get him put back on the bench again.  I think Matt Moore deserves another look anyways, or at least Steve Smith owners hope so.  Williams and Stewart are facing a boatload of defenders in the box on rushing downs because the QB play just doesn't scare anyone.  This is going to be a problem until Clausen or Moore start making some plays.

Chicago Bears - Cutler had a bad game on Monday night as he should have been intercepted multiple times, but the Packers are able to bring more pressure than most teams, so it wasn't a huge surprise.  Johnny Knox continues to make big plays, but he's not catching a lot of passes, and I think as the deep router runner he's affected most by the bad offensive line.  He's still be a solid WR3, however, and he's going to catch some long TDs this year.  The rest of the WR group is kind of a mess currently.  Greg Olsen continues to be used more than most thought he would, so I'd keep using him until proven otherwise.  He's their best red zone threat as a receiver, although Matt Forte is a close 2nd.  Forte had a bad game, but such is life when you can't run the ball.  He's much better in PPR leagues, but he's still a solid RB2.

Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer still looks like crap, and his huge week 1 is a distant memory at this point.  Luckily for his owners, he's still surrounded with enough talent to be a reasonable QB2, and there's nobody else on the roster that would make any sense starting at the NFL level.  Ochocinco and Owens will suffer accordingly.  Benson had a big game and will continue to be the workhorse, but his owners would be smart to ensure they have Bernard Scott waiting on standby.

Cleveland Browns - Peyton Hillis has given fantasy owners one reason to consider rostering someone from this team.  He's taken the starting job from Jerome Harrison, and you can expect a decent workload each week from him.  He's best utilized as a matchup play despite the amazing performance against the Ravens.  Nobody else on this team is worth a damn.

Dallas Cowboys - The media-appointed Super Bowl champions finally won a game.  Romo would have had an even bigger day had Bryant not been pushed out of bounds on one big TD catch, and then he couldn't get his feet down on a 2nd one.  Bryant's breakout game is coming, so be patient.  Roy Williams obviously put up a huge game, but that screams fluke to me.  Bryant is going to take this job.  The running game is a pure committee and there isn't much positive to say about what's been going on so far with it.

Denver Broncos - The Moreno injury has allowed Orton to light up the pass attempt stat column.  A caution about Broncos WRs like I mentioned under Brandon Lloyd in my waiver wire column: this is a true committee.  Lloyd, Gaffney, Thomas, and Royal are all sharing snaps.  The Broncos won't throw for 460 yards most week, so there won't be enough to go around.  Be careful about who you start here.  Maroney started, but he did not look good at all.  He'll start again this week, and he can be used by desperate owners as a bye week replacement, but don't expect a whole lot.  He's certainly worth keeping around to see if he can turn the corner.

Detroit Lions - With Stafford, Burleson, and Best now hurt, the arrow on this offense is pointing way down.  Teams are again tripling Calvin Johnson, although Tony Scheffler has done a nice job.  Best has turf toe, and you all probably know how unpredictable this can be.  Who knows if he's start, and if he does, how effective he'll be.  He's a risky RB2 if he plays.

Green Bay Packers - The passing offense is humming along, and now's a good time to buy low on Greg Jennings.  He did this last season as well, but this guy is going to start making some big downfield plays sooner than later.  It's just a matter of time before Finley starts scoring some TDs to go along with his monster yardage total thus far.  He had one called back on a frustrating unrelated penalty.  The rushing attack is a different matter.  Brandon Jackson simply isn't cut out to be a featured RB at the NFL level, and John Kuhn is a much better runner.  Ted Thompson isn't know for trading draft picks, but the Packers would be wise to see what all is out there.

Houston Texans - The offense took a step backwards last week, but the biggest news here is AJ's ankle injury.  Given they're playing Oakland this week, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston runs a bit more and sits AJ out.  This would be good news for both Jacoby Jones, who would start in AJ's place, and Arian Foster.  Still, Johnson is a gamer and will do everything he can to get onto the field.  How big a part of the game plan he'd be at < 100% remains to be seen, however.

Indianapolis Colts - The offense keeps humming along, even with the injuries to Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez.  Collie was a monster, and he'll be a big part of the offense all season.  Owners who didn't heed my warning and drafted Addai this year as their RB2 are suffering.  He's not scoring TDs, and that's what kept his value afloat last season.  His yardage is on a similar pace, but unless he scores, he's not much of a fantasy option.  He's a RB3.

Jacksonville Jaguars - This offense is a mess, and it's bringing MJD down.  If you sign Trent Edwards and he becomes a threat to start at some point for your team, you know how bad it is.  Sims-Walker is a decent WR3, and MJD is a must-start despite the situation, but there's no good news to be seen here.

Kansas City Chiefs - They keep winning, so their offensive problems will keep getting swept under the rug. First of all, Matt Cassel is holding this entire offense down.  He's simply not a starting NFL QB as he's looked as bad as a 3-0 QB can.  He finally hit Bowe down the field for a TD, but it was off a ridiculous trick play.  If you can sell high on Bowe after one good game, go for it.  I'm trying.  Thomas Jones, despite not being nearly as productive per touch, continues to hog carries in front of Charles who's merely a change-of-pace RB at this point.  Until they start losing, don't expect this to change.

Miami Dolphins - Ricky Williams put the ball on the ground a couple times, and Ronnie Brown was on the field more.  Williams needs to hang onto the ball or Brown is going to take a dominant lead in this committee.  Henne and Marshall finally got on the same page, against the Jets defense no less (granted they're much weaker without Revis), and it was pretty.  Marshall should hog targets moving forward.

Minnesota Vikings - All is back to normal in Viking land for at least one week.  Peterson predictably had a monster game against the Lions, and Brett Favre looked more in sync with his WRs.  Harvin especially looked good.  Favre is still making the horrible throws that he wasn't making last year, and I think he's going to have quite an INT total by the end of the year.  Don't completely forget about Sidney Rice as he's someone to stash if you can burn a roster spot for 8-10 weeks.

New England Patriots - The passing game is humming along, although I'm sure Randy Moss owners are wondering what's up with the receiving yards.  I wouldn't be concerned too much here, although the additional weapons, especially Aaron Hernandez, are cutting a bit into his targets.  Moss will still get his, especially in the big play department.  The running game is a mess, although injuries to Kevin Faulk and now Fred Taylor might clarify things a bit.  BGE will start and get most of the carries if Taylor sits out, and Danny Woodhead is slowly being brought along as Faulk's replacement.  Sammy Morris remains a strict backup.

New Orleans Saints - The Saints took one on the chin thanks to the struggling Garrett Hartley.  Brees looked good again, and the biggest story from week 3 was the re-emergence of Lance Moore.  Skepticism is advised given the spread-the-wealth offense, but Moore's big run in 2008 was directly related to both him being healthy and Reggie Bush being injured, which is the current state of things right now.  Meachem and Henderson will play a big role as well, but Moore has a chance to do more damage moving forward as he has far more reliable hands.  Keep an eye on Pierre Thomas' ankle injury, although the fact he returned to the game afterwards is cause for hope.  Chris Ivory would start if PT can't get ready for Sunday.  Ivory might be stealing his goal line carries, too.

New York Giants - The Giants, needless to say, are reeling.  Eli has been eh, and Bradshaw has actually been very good, but they got smoked by Indy and then the Titans beat them pretty good as well.  The defense isn't playing that great, and it's forcing Eli to throw far more than the Giants would prefer.  Bradshaw has been a great RB2, but Eli needs to make smarter passes as his 5:6 TD:INT ratio indicates.  He's nothing more than a QB2, anyways.

New York Jets - Sanchez is back on the fantasy radar after 2 excellent performances the past two weeks.  Braylon Edwards has made some big plays, and he's doing much more than Jerricho Cotchery, so it looks like Edwards will continue to start after Santonio Holmes returns.  Edwards and Holmes give Sanchez some great weaponry, and Dustin Keller has been huge so far as well.  Sanchez is a great QB2.  LT has taken ahold of this backfield.  He was already the favorite for 3rd down work, but he's also taking goal line work as well.  He looks fresh, explosive, and is a good RB2 as the leader of this committee.  Greene isn't going anywhere, but he's startable at all right now.

Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden has improved by leaps and bounds this year, and he's taken a stranglehold on the starting job.  He's been putting up great all-around numbers.  Gradkowski isn't flashy by any means, but he seems to do a decent job of moving this offense.  Louis Murphy's emergence has helped, and Zach Miller is always a threat.  Gradkowski improves the fantasy prospects of both, so let's hope that Al Davis, for once, stays out of the starting lineup decisions as he loves Jason Campbell.  Campbell is certainly more physically talented, but he looked awful the first two weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles - It wouldn't be right if I didn't address Michael Vick first and foremost here.  I'm sure you've read the stories, but not only is Vick surrounded by the best talent of his career, he's also matured into a good pocket passer.  He's passing first, and he's using his legs to complement that rather than as his primary weapon.  It's a good fit behind a leaky offensive line.  There's strong indication from scouts that despite facing two awful defenses in his first two starts and racking up gaudy numbers, he will continue his good play against good defenses as well from those who have watched him play.  McCoy took a back seat last week in a disappointing turn of events, but he remains a solid RB2.  He mentioned that thanks to the extra defensive attention Vick's legs require, it's opening up more holes for him to run through.  Jackson and Maclin are both must-starts.  The only guy not in on this party is Brent Celek as Vick has had no problem getting the ball down the field.  You can consider another starter, but I wouldn't drop him.  He's still a valuable weapon.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3-0 without Big Ben.  Pretty amazing if you think about it, although Charlie Batch put on quite a show last weekend against a decimated Tampa Bay secondary.  Prior to that game, the Steelers QB play was far from stellar.  Hopefully you left Mike Wallace in your lineup for last week's explosion.  With the way Mendenhall is running, this offense will be pretty scary once Big Ben gets back up to speed.

San Diego Chargers - Rivers, despite the absence of Vincent Jackson, is making me eat my words for the second straight year.  This guy just flat-out gets it done no matter who he's throwing it to.  The good news for the offense is that Marcus McNeill signed his tender, so he'll return in week 7 and provide a boost to the offensive line.  Ryan Mathews is also expected to return this week, so that's good news as well.

San Francisco 49ers - The offense has been abysmal outside of Frank Gore so far, so offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye was fired on Monday.  Given the horrible play calling so far, it probably can't get any worse.  Raye claimed he was just following orders from Singletary, but he might have been trying to save face at this point.  We'll see this Sunday, but Gore and Davis are the only ones worth starting currently.

Seattle Seahawks - They win at home and look terrible on the road apparently.  Hasselbeck has been solid so far, but I remain skeptical about how long that will last.  Mike Williams has faded after a solid start, and Deon Butler is coming on.  Golden Tate is also receiving more offensive snaps, so this is a mess currently.  Tate is the guy to stash here for a possible 2nd half impact.  Forsett has actually emerged as a decent RB3 and Washington has focused on special teams, and Julius Jones has thankfully been rarely used.  He's a decent bye week replacement this week against St. Louis.

St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford has been better than anyone expected thus far, and so has Mark Clayton.  The two clearly have a nice connection going, and it's made Bradford a legit QB2 while Clayton is an every week starter to this point.  Nobody else has stepped up, yet.  The bigger news is the groin injury to Steven Jackson, and he's headed for a game time decision, so have other options ready.  You can grab Kenneth Darby as a backup plan if you're desperate or hurting due to bye weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Not much to say about this offense.  Mike Williams continues to impress, and Freeman should continue to improve as he gets farther away from his thumb injury.  Cadillac has looked horribly unexplosive, and LaGarette Blount has taken the short yardage job away from him.  He might be in line for more carries between the 20s as well, so keep an eye on that.

Tennessee Titans - CJ2K has put his monster workload to good use so far this season, but for the sake of his longevity in both this season and for his career, the Titans would be wise to follow through on their word and attempt to get Javon Ringer some more carries.  It's best for everyone involved.  It's also clear who CJ2K's handcuff is, so CJ2K owners should make sure to stash him.  The passing game isn't doing much of anything, but Kenny Britt should remain in the back of your mind.

Washington Redskins - McNabb has been solid, and both Santana Moss and Chris Cooley has benefited.  Their rushing attack is barely worth mentioning, although like I said in my waiver wire article, it's clear that Ryan Torain is the backup RB here and not Keiland Williams.  It'd probably be a split between the two if Portis were to miss action, and it's unsure if he'll be ready this week.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Week 4 Waiver Wire

The pickings this week are really slim...

QB:

Bruce Gradkowski - He's mobile and knows how to run the Raiders offense.  He's not much of a QB2, but he's better than a number of guys that might be rostered right now.  With Louis Murphy slowly emerging, Zach Miller a great TE, and Darren McFadden emerging as well, the Raiders have a competent offense.

Kevin Kolb - If Vick owners have an extra roster space, it's probably not a bad idea to stash Kolb.  Obviously Vick is nowhere close to losing his job, but he runs and the Eagles offensive line is allowing him to take hits.  Kolb isn't bad insurance.

RB:

Peyton Hillis - I don't know why he'd still be available, but his coming-out party against the Ravens has surely made many take notice.  Jerome Harrison won't completely go away, but Hillis is a solid bulldozer with quality passing game skills.  He should receive the bulk of the carries for the Browns and is a must-add in any league where he's still available.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis - Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, has another injury, but it appears to be minor.  Still, if he misses this week's game, Ellis would make a solid bye-week replacement.  He'd probably get most of the carries and be the favorite for goal line work.

LeGarrette Blount - Blount has claimed committee duties with Cadillac, and with Williams not impressing anyone, Blount has a chance to make his mark.  At worst, he'll split carries and probably be the favorite for goal line duties.  At best, he could become the lead ball carrier.  He's worth a stash to see how it plays out.

Ryan Torain - With Portis banged up as well, it was Torain and not Keiland Williams who picked up the slack.  Torain knows Shanahan's system well, and Shanny has certainly produced fantasy gold out of nobodies, so you could stash him as a RB5 and see what happens.

Chris Ivory - Ivory would be the guy should Pierre Thomas go down, so he's another decent RB5 speculatory add.

WR:

Louis Murphy - He's emerging as the go-to receiver for his offense, and he's playing like a WR3.  Add him, and you can certainly use him right away depending on your options.

Lance Moore - In 2008 when he was last healthy, Moore produced great numbers while Reggie Bush was out.  In 2010, with Moore healthy again, and Bush not again...his first game lead to 149 yards and 2 TDs.  His upside is dimmed a bit with the Saints spread-the-wealth passing attack, but neither Henderson nor Meachem have stepped up, so Moore has a chance to make a mark.  Moore is well worth an add and figures to be productive for a while.

Brandon Lloyd - He's going to be a hot add after a fast start and a huge week 3, but caution is advised here.  The Broncos have thrown a ton more than expected thus far, and it's doubtful they keep this pace up.  Furthermore, there's a strict receiver rotation going on here between Lloyd, Royal, Thomas, and Gaffney.  When the Broncos don't throw all game, it's going to be hard to figure out who will have the big game.  Lloyd is definitely worth picking up, but I'd be cautious about starting him.