Well, I just got back from vacation and plan to post on almost a daily basis now. I've gone a while without posting anything, so most of the news I've caught up on when I returned is outdated. At any rate, here's a few random notes:
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Monday, April 16, 2007
B.J. Ryan Complains Of Sore Elbow
Toronto closer B.J. Ryan compliained of a sore elbow after two disasterous blown saves in his last four appearances.
Sore Elbow + visit to Dr. James Andrews = Bad. This is a deathblow for B.J. Ryan owners who drafted him to be the ace of their bullpen. He's been placed on the 15 day DL for now, and will be examined by Dr. Andrews on Monday. It will be determined later today whether he has ligament damage (which would require Tommy John surgery), or if it's something less severe.
Fantasy Impact: Grab Jason Frasor immediately. He'll be the Blue Jays closer indefinitely while Ryan is out, possibly for the rest of the season if Ryan needs surgery. He's been very effective as a short reliever the past two years outside of a dreadful start last season. He'll post a very strong K/9 and should maintain solid ratios as a closer. Shaun Marcum picked up the save yesterday, but that's because Frasor had thrown 30 pitches the night before and needed the day of rest.
Sore Elbow + visit to Dr. James Andrews = Bad. This is a deathblow for B.J. Ryan owners who drafted him to be the ace of their bullpen. He's been placed on the 15 day DL for now, and will be examined by Dr. Andrews on Monday. It will be determined later today whether he has ligament damage (which would require Tommy John surgery), or if it's something less severe.
Fantasy Impact: Grab Jason Frasor immediately. He'll be the Blue Jays closer indefinitely while Ryan is out, possibly for the rest of the season if Ryan needs surgery. He's been very effective as a short reliever the past two years outside of a dreadful start last season. He'll post a very strong K/9 and should maintain solid ratios as a closer. Shaun Marcum picked up the save yesterday, but that's because Frasor had thrown 30 pitches the night before and needed the day of rest.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Henry Owens Records Save In Marlins Victory
Well, forget my Taylor Tankersley post from yesterday...it appears that Henry Owens is #2 for saves in the Florida bullpen. Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said Julio is still his closer, but he'd get Monday off. Hardly a promising sign for Julio's job security, despite what Gonzalez has said. Considering Julio's implosion so far, it's very possible that Owens will have the job sooner than later. He's worth stashing at this point if you have an open roster spot or someone you're waiting to dump. He has a good fastball and an average slider from what I've read, so while it doesn't appear he'll be a dominant closer if given the chance, he did have an impressive spring and has pitched 5 scoreless innings so far in the early going.
In related news, Tankersley has had 2 successful outings in a row in the minors and appears ready to return. This situation will probably become somewhat muddled as it appears Tankersley has the best pure stuff on the relief staff, and he was the favorite prior to injuring himself this spring. The fun of chasing closers is fully underway!
In related news, Tankersley has had 2 successful outings in a row in the minors and appears ready to return. This situation will probably become somewhat muddled as it appears Tankersley has the best pure stuff on the relief staff, and he was the favorite prior to injuring himself this spring. The fun of chasing closers is fully underway!
Monday, April 9, 2007
Carpenter Hurting, Lidge Loses Job
Chris Carpenter: Chris Carpenter went in for an MRI today, and while the doctors didn't see any ligament damage, he was diagnosed with an arthritic elbow and will miss some time. His estimated return is unknown at this time, and this appears to be cause for concern. Carpenter experienced swelling after his initial start, then completely a bullpen session only to have the swelling return. He'll try resting it for a while before throwing again, and this is undoubtedly a disappointment as he was likely the 2nd pitcher picked in most drafts. Carpenter has remained healthy and dominant since coming over from the AL to the Cardinals after battling various ailments and inconsistency in Toronto. However, the long season pitching through the World Series last year could be to blame.
Fantasy Impact: It's always a huge blow when you lose your staff ace, but there's some options out there. I'd suggest Daniel Cabrera, but I'd be shocked if he was unowned after his first two starts. He's always had the pure stuff, but now he seems to have found his control and a better knowledge of how to pitch. I expect some control inconsistency still and thus some ERA/WHIP concerns, but he has the talent to keep this up. He'll post a strong K rate, and the Baltimore offense is good enough to provide him with solid support. You could also look to Zack Greinke. Greinke was a highly touted pitching prospect with a solid 2004 debut before tanking in 2005 and battling unknown personal issues last season. He had a terrific opening start against the powerful Red Sox lineup, and he has the track record and home ballpark to post solid ratios and a solid K rate this year. Wins will be a problem backed by the mediocre KC offense, but wins are always more luck based than anything else and he'll contribute enough elsewhere to be a solid pickup. It'd be best to spot start him before he re-proves himself in rotisserie leagues.
Brad Lidge: Brad Lidge has been officially pulled from the closer's role and will be used earlier in games. After his disasterous 2006 compaign, brutal spring, and terrible 2007 start, this can't be of any surprise. He hasn't lost his stuff and he's not hurt, so it's obviously a mental breakdown. Odds are he'll need a fresh start with another team before possibly re-emerging, but he can't be completely ruled out if he can regain his control.
Fantasy Impact: Dan Wheeler owners rejoice! You now have an extra closer, and given his numbers the past two years (2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 137 Ks in 144 2/3 IP), he'll likely be effective in the closer's role and could maintain the job all year long. He started off with a perfect inning today, and getting that first save down is a great start for his mental approach.
Other Notes:
- Jorge Julio has been brutal in the closer's role for the Marlins so far. It's time to start paying attention to who's favored in the 8th inning to set him up. The Marlins had so many young candidates vying for the closer's role prior to the Julio acquisition that it's hard to speculate on one, but they'd probably favor a healthy return by Taylor Tankersley and want him to become their closer of the future. He'd be the one to stash on your roster at this point if you feel the need to own one of them.
- A-Rod is making those who passed on him early in the first round regret it so far. A league leading 4 HRs and 11 RBIs is pacing MLB in the early going, and it's great to see as a fantasy owner after an offseason filled with trade rumors and turmoil. The game winning grand slam was the most encouraging of all as it'll hopefully snap A-Rod out of his recent clutch failures. He can opt out of his contract at year's end, so he'll be plenty motivated to keep this up all year long.
- Miguel Cabrera is off to a scorching start, but I have to believe the lack of lineup protection behind him will eventually catch up to him. By no means would I trade him unless I were getting a bonafide stud back in the deal, but he'd better hope Willingham and Jacobs continue maturing as hitters so pitchers don't stop pitching to Cabrera all together.
- David Ortiz smacked 2 HRs last night, helping erase memories of his terrible spring/start. He'll be fine for those worried about him.
- I hate Alfonso Soriano so far. 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, but he finally stole his first base today. My one team with him, Teixeira, Blalock, Rios, and Mauer is quite offensive so far, in the wrong sense of the word.
Fantasy Impact: It's always a huge blow when you lose your staff ace, but there's some options out there. I'd suggest Daniel Cabrera, but I'd be shocked if he was unowned after his first two starts. He's always had the pure stuff, but now he seems to have found his control and a better knowledge of how to pitch. I expect some control inconsistency still and thus some ERA/WHIP concerns, but he has the talent to keep this up. He'll post a strong K rate, and the Baltimore offense is good enough to provide him with solid support. You could also look to Zack Greinke. Greinke was a highly touted pitching prospect with a solid 2004 debut before tanking in 2005 and battling unknown personal issues last season. He had a terrific opening start against the powerful Red Sox lineup, and he has the track record and home ballpark to post solid ratios and a solid K rate this year. Wins will be a problem backed by the mediocre KC offense, but wins are always more luck based than anything else and he'll contribute enough elsewhere to be a solid pickup. It'd be best to spot start him before he re-proves himself in rotisserie leagues.
Brad Lidge: Brad Lidge has been officially pulled from the closer's role and will be used earlier in games. After his disasterous 2006 compaign, brutal spring, and terrible 2007 start, this can't be of any surprise. He hasn't lost his stuff and he's not hurt, so it's obviously a mental breakdown. Odds are he'll need a fresh start with another team before possibly re-emerging, but he can't be completely ruled out if he can regain his control.
Fantasy Impact: Dan Wheeler owners rejoice! You now have an extra closer, and given his numbers the past two years (2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 137 Ks in 144 2/3 IP), he'll likely be effective in the closer's role and could maintain the job all year long. He started off with a perfect inning today, and getting that first save down is a great start for his mental approach.
Other Notes:
- Jorge Julio has been brutal in the closer's role for the Marlins so far. It's time to start paying attention to who's favored in the 8th inning to set him up. The Marlins had so many young candidates vying for the closer's role prior to the Julio acquisition that it's hard to speculate on one, but they'd probably favor a healthy return by Taylor Tankersley and want him to become their closer of the future. He'd be the one to stash on your roster at this point if you feel the need to own one of them.
- A-Rod is making those who passed on him early in the first round regret it so far. A league leading 4 HRs and 11 RBIs is pacing MLB in the early going, and it's great to see as a fantasy owner after an offseason filled with trade rumors and turmoil. The game winning grand slam was the most encouraging of all as it'll hopefully snap A-Rod out of his recent clutch failures. He can opt out of his contract at year's end, so he'll be plenty motivated to keep this up all year long.
- Miguel Cabrera is off to a scorching start, but I have to believe the lack of lineup protection behind him will eventually catch up to him. By no means would I trade him unless I were getting a bonafide stud back in the deal, but he'd better hope Willingham and Jacobs continue maturing as hitters so pitchers don't stop pitching to Cabrera all together.
- David Ortiz smacked 2 HRs last night, helping erase memories of his terrible spring/start. He'll be fine for those worried about him.
- I hate Alfonso Soriano so far. 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, but he finally stole his first base today. My one team with him, Teixeira, Blalock, Rios, and Mauer is quite offensive so far, in the wrong sense of the word.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Opening Day 2007
I worked from home yesterday to enjoy a day full of baseball on ESPN. My beloved White Sox got spanked, the Cubs looked bad as well, and most aces turned into 9s, or at least posted ERAs in that range. John Patterson, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Curt Schilling, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, and Eric Bedard all posted less-than-stellar performances. Jose Contreras was beyond atrocious. This isn't all that common as many pitchers are still working on their pitch location, arm angles, and rhythm at this point in the season. Some will also battle the "dead arm" phase as they get themselves back into the pitching routine. It's only one day, and none of these performances are worth worrying about yet. If any of these pitchers post 1 or 2 more performances in a row like they did yesterday, then you might want to start paying attention. My ERA/WHIP in the league that I have Webb, Schilling, and Patterson is looking pretty sweet right now.
On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).
Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.
No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.
B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.
Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.
On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).
Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.
No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.
B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.
Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Mauer OK, Sabathia Not So Much
Joe Mauer: Mauer was diagnosed with a possible stress reaction in his leg, which is the pre-cursor to a stress fracture, which obviously would have sidelined him for some time, especially as a catcher. Luckily the Twins caught it early and it appears to be be nothing as he slugged a HR and a double in a spring training game this morning, along with catching 3 innings.
On a side note concerning Mauer, I feel he's being overrated in drafts as a 2nd and 3rd round pick. There's no question that he's got the skills to be the best fantasy catcher in all of baseball with .320, 100 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB potential, but that's likely his career season, and even then a 2nd round pick on those numbers is stretching it. He must post those numbers to justify taking him where he's going. Position scarcity definitely increases the value of players like Jose Reyes (who's basically Carl Crawford at SS), Chase Utley, and Joe Mauer, but when you draft, you have to understand that taking Joe Mauer in the 2nd round over a player like Travis Hafner is just dumb. Hafner is going to give you .300/100/40/110 pretty much guaranteed, and that's a much wiser investment. If you still have a draft coming up and want Mauer, keep an eye on who else is available and don't pass up bigger, more guaranteed numbers at another position just to have the best catcher. His best value is when he's being drafted right before guys slated to post similar or slightly superior numbers at other deeper positions, not when he's being taken ahead of guys that will post similar to superior numbers to his projected career season.
C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia took a line drive off of his left wrist (his pitching wrist) in a spring training game today. There's no prognosis on his injury as of yet. If you've already drafted him you can hope for the best, but if you haven't drafted yet, I'd drop him in your tier a bit in case he's forced to miss potentially significant time.
On a side note concerning Mauer, I feel he's being overrated in drafts as a 2nd and 3rd round pick. There's no question that he's got the skills to be the best fantasy catcher in all of baseball with .320, 100 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB potential, but that's likely his career season, and even then a 2nd round pick on those numbers is stretching it. He must post those numbers to justify taking him where he's going. Position scarcity definitely increases the value of players like Jose Reyes (who's basically Carl Crawford at SS), Chase Utley, and Joe Mauer, but when you draft, you have to understand that taking Joe Mauer in the 2nd round over a player like Travis Hafner is just dumb. Hafner is going to give you .300/100/40/110 pretty much guaranteed, and that's a much wiser investment. If you still have a draft coming up and want Mauer, keep an eye on who else is available and don't pass up bigger, more guaranteed numbers at another position just to have the best catcher. His best value is when he's being drafted right before guys slated to post similar or slightly superior numbers at other deeper positions, not when he's being taken ahead of guys that will post similar to superior numbers to his projected career season.
C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia took a line drive off of his left wrist (his pitching wrist) in a spring training game today. There's no prognosis on his injury as of yet. If you've already drafted him you can hope for the best, but if you haven't drafted yet, I'd drop him in your tier a bit in case he's forced to miss potentially significant time.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Florida Marlins Trade For Jorge Julio
The Florida Marlins traded SP Yusmeiro Petit to the Arizona Diamondbacks for RP Jorge Julio.
Julio was Arizona's closer last season between Valverde's implosion/demotion and then his promotion back to the majors. After his excellent 2002 season as a setup man/closer for the Orioles, he's progressively gotten worse, although his numbers last year in Arizona were the best since his 2002 season. He's a big strikeout guy, but he's also a big walk guy as well, and he's not exactly a reliable reliever. He's been officially declared as the Marlins' closer.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and pick him up as a closer, but don't expect great numbers. He should have fairly good job security until Taylor Tankersley gets healthy, and then it'll depend on how he's pitching versus how Tankersley is pitching as far as who ends the season as Florida's closer. Florida's bigger ballpark might help aid his numbers a bit over last season, and there's a chance he could emerge as a middle tier closer this season. I just wouldn't bet a high waiver priority or a quality hitter/pitcher on it.
Julio was Arizona's closer last season between Valverde's implosion/demotion and then his promotion back to the majors. After his excellent 2002 season as a setup man/closer for the Orioles, he's progressively gotten worse, although his numbers last year in Arizona were the best since his 2002 season. He's a big strikeout guy, but he's also a big walk guy as well, and he's not exactly a reliable reliever. He's been officially declared as the Marlins' closer.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and pick him up as a closer, but don't expect great numbers. He should have fairly good job security until Taylor Tankersley gets healthy, and then it'll depend on how he's pitching versus how Tankersley is pitching as far as who ends the season as Florida's closer. Florida's bigger ballpark might help aid his numbers a bit over last season, and there's a chance he could emerge as a middle tier closer this season. I just wouldn't bet a high waiver priority or a quality hitter/pitcher on it.
Fantasy Baseball Draft #2
I had been playing in a local league with some friends in my area for the past 4-5 years, but after most of the people who played last year welched on the $20 buy in (no thanks to the commissioner trying to collect the fees after season ended), I decided not to play in that league anymore. So, I joined another 12 team, 5x5 rotisserie league and ended up with the following team:
C - Mike Piazza (10th round)
1B - David Ortiz (2nd round)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round)
SS - Felipe Lopez (12th round)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round)
OF - Nick Markakis (8th round)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (11th round)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round)
Bench - Willy Taveras (13th round)
Bench - Eric Byrnes (20th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round)
SP - Anthony Reyes (15th round)
SP - John Patterson (16th round)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (17th round)
RP - Dan Wheeler (18th round)
RP - Scot Shields (21st round)
Offense: My offense is stacked with loads of talent. I'm a bit weak in batting average given I don't have anyone that will contend for the batting crown, but on the other hand, Francoeur and Lopez are really the only sub .280 hitters on this squad. I have a lot of HR power, a lot of guys that will see 100+ RBIs and Rs, and 2 SB machines in Lopez and Taveras. Taveras is my favorite "empty speed" player this year in terms of draft value, although he should hit for a decent average in spacious Colorado and score plenty of runs. Piazza is my favorite catcher in redraft leagues this year. His numbers last year aren't terrific, but he still managed a .283 average, 22 HRs, and 68 RBIs playing most of his games in one of the worst hitters ballparks in baseball (Petco Park). He's now the fulltime DH, which means he'll play every day, he's hitting in a better ballpark (Oakland), surrounded by a much better lineup. He's not Mauer/VMart/McCann, but he'll come close (he might even put up the best power numbers of the group), and can be drafted much later. Eric Byrnes, a 25/25 candidate, in the 20th round, is ridiculous value.
Starting Pitching: My starting pitching gets pretty hazy after Brandon Webb. Felix Hernandez was a fantasy baseball disappointment last year thanks to obscene hype, but he's a good value this season with a full major league season under his belt. He's only 21 years old still. He'll be more familiar with his catcher Johjima, which will lead to better called games. He has insane talent and posted solid peripherals after the All-Star break last year. I expect another step forward from the 2nd half of last year. Anthony Reyes has been lights out this spring, and is one of the more unheralded pitching prospects thanks to not having a high 90s fastball. I knew with a big Cardinals fan having two picks after where I grabbed Reyes, I wouldn't get him if I waited. John Patterson is more my #3 starter, and as I stated on my other team, he's a good bounceback candidate this year. He won't win many games, but he'll have great ratios and lots of Ks when healthy. Kelvim Escobar is still a rather underrated pitcher, and while he has plenty of health concerns as well, he's a very good starter when healthy. I took Clemens entirely too high, but since we drafted on Yahoo, I didn't have much time to come up with an emergency plan since I was set on taking Randy Johnson there instead. I panicked.
Relief Pitching: Oops. Well, after I drafted my ace reliever K-Rod, I just gave up on the saves catagory because the entire league completely overvalued closers. The lesser closers were being drafted 3-4 rounds where they should be, and with as much turnover as there is at the position, I had no problem drafting all the other players that fell through the cracks while everyone raced to grab closers. I have no problem grinding out the first month with just K-Rod and seeing what happens with all the other questionable closer positions. Dan Wheeler is my 2nd closer, I guess, because I see no reason why Brad Lidge won't lose his job. He was terrible most of last season, and he's been terrible most of the spring. I could have seen him pulling a 180 degree turnaround if he composed himself this offseason and started strong this spring, but he's still a mess. Broxton and Shields are top notch MRs, and they don't get enough love in rotisserie scoring thanks to the random wins, low ratios, and strong K numbers they offer your team. They're especially helpful if you're worried about some of your starters, as I am.
C - Mike Piazza (10th round)
1B - David Ortiz (2nd round)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round)
SS - Felipe Lopez (12th round)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round)
OF - Nick Markakis (8th round)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (11th round)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round)
Bench - Willy Taveras (13th round)
Bench - Eric Byrnes (20th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round)
SP - Anthony Reyes (15th round)
SP - John Patterson (16th round)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (17th round)
RP - Dan Wheeler (18th round)
RP - Scot Shields (21st round)
Offense: My offense is stacked with loads of talent. I'm a bit weak in batting average given I don't have anyone that will contend for the batting crown, but on the other hand, Francoeur and Lopez are really the only sub .280 hitters on this squad. I have a lot of HR power, a lot of guys that will see 100+ RBIs and Rs, and 2 SB machines in Lopez and Taveras. Taveras is my favorite "empty speed" player this year in terms of draft value, although he should hit for a decent average in spacious Colorado and score plenty of runs. Piazza is my favorite catcher in redraft leagues this year. His numbers last year aren't terrific, but he still managed a .283 average, 22 HRs, and 68 RBIs playing most of his games in one of the worst hitters ballparks in baseball (Petco Park). He's now the fulltime DH, which means he'll play every day, he's hitting in a better ballpark (Oakland), surrounded by a much better lineup. He's not Mauer/VMart/McCann, but he'll come close (he might even put up the best power numbers of the group), and can be drafted much later. Eric Byrnes, a 25/25 candidate, in the 20th round, is ridiculous value.
Starting Pitching: My starting pitching gets pretty hazy after Brandon Webb. Felix Hernandez was a fantasy baseball disappointment last year thanks to obscene hype, but he's a good value this season with a full major league season under his belt. He's only 21 years old still. He'll be more familiar with his catcher Johjima, which will lead to better called games. He has insane talent and posted solid peripherals after the All-Star break last year. I expect another step forward from the 2nd half of last year. Anthony Reyes has been lights out this spring, and is one of the more unheralded pitching prospects thanks to not having a high 90s fastball. I knew with a big Cardinals fan having two picks after where I grabbed Reyes, I wouldn't get him if I waited. John Patterson is more my #3 starter, and as I stated on my other team, he's a good bounceback candidate this year. He won't win many games, but he'll have great ratios and lots of Ks when healthy. Kelvim Escobar is still a rather underrated pitcher, and while he has plenty of health concerns as well, he's a very good starter when healthy. I took Clemens entirely too high, but since we drafted on Yahoo, I didn't have much time to come up with an emergency plan since I was set on taking Randy Johnson there instead. I panicked.
Relief Pitching: Oops. Well, after I drafted my ace reliever K-Rod, I just gave up on the saves catagory because the entire league completely overvalued closers. The lesser closers were being drafted 3-4 rounds where they should be, and with as much turnover as there is at the position, I had no problem drafting all the other players that fell through the cracks while everyone raced to grab closers. I have no problem grinding out the first month with just K-Rod and seeing what happens with all the other questionable closer positions. Dan Wheeler is my 2nd closer, I guess, because I see no reason why Brad Lidge won't lose his job. He was terrible most of last season, and he's been terrible most of the spring. I could have seen him pulling a 180 degree turnaround if he composed himself this offseason and started strong this spring, but he's still a mess. Broxton and Shields are top notch MRs, and they don't get enough love in rotisserie scoring thanks to the random wins, low ratios, and strong K numbers they offer your team. They're especially helpful if you're worried about some of your starters, as I am.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Boston Red Sox (Re)Name Jonathan Papelbon As Closer
The Boston Red Sox have officially announced that P Jonathan Papelbon will be moving back to the bullpen and into the closer's role.
All of Boston can let out a collective sigh of relief...the biggest hole on the team has been filled by one of last season's best. Papelbon was drafted and came up through the Boston Red Sox system as a starting pitcher, and a very highly regarded one at that. He throws mid-90s with plus breaking pitches, and had the ability to be a #2 starter for this team in time. However, due to bullpen issues last season, he started spring training last year as the team's closer, and finished with a ridiculous 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 75 Ks in 68 1/3 IP. He was arguably the best closer in baseball last year, but the Red Sox felt he could help them more as a starter this season. Given he also had shoulder issues towards the end of the season which shut him down, they also thought a the regular work schedule of being a starter would help prevent future problems.
Boston started to look outside the organization for a new closer, but judging from the lack of a trade, it appears the asking price was too high for the closers on the market. Their in-house candidates included Julian Tavarez and Joel Piniero...hardly anyone worth handing the ball toin the 9th inning. Relief prospects Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen haven't developed as quickly as the Red Sox would have liked, either. Boston already has a talented rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, with Julian Tavarez moving into the 5th starter position. Hopefully Jon Lester will return from cancer to claim the 5th starter's role in time. Given the talent and experience they have there, moving Papelbon to the bullpen makes a lot of sense. They better hope the irregular pattern of being a closer doesn't cause more shoulder concerns for Papelbon, but I doubt they'd make the move unless they were fairly certain this is the case.
Fantasy Impact: For those who have already drafted, Papelbon moves from a potential #4/#5 starter for your fantasy team to your team's best closer just like that. This is big news for all teams since it's much easier to find a capable replacement starter than it is to land an elite closer. For those who haven't drafted, adjust your rankings immediately. Papelbon joins the elite closers such as Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, and Billy Wagner, and should be taken in the 4th/5th round area. Beware of more shoulder problems when drafting, though, so I'd still take K-Rod and Nathan ahead of him.
All of Boston can let out a collective sigh of relief...the biggest hole on the team has been filled by one of last season's best. Papelbon was drafted and came up through the Boston Red Sox system as a starting pitcher, and a very highly regarded one at that. He throws mid-90s with plus breaking pitches, and had the ability to be a #2 starter for this team in time. However, due to bullpen issues last season, he started spring training last year as the team's closer, and finished with a ridiculous 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 75 Ks in 68 1/3 IP. He was arguably the best closer in baseball last year, but the Red Sox felt he could help them more as a starter this season. Given he also had shoulder issues towards the end of the season which shut him down, they also thought a the regular work schedule of being a starter would help prevent future problems.
Boston started to look outside the organization for a new closer, but judging from the lack of a trade, it appears the asking price was too high for the closers on the market. Their in-house candidates included Julian Tavarez and Joel Piniero...hardly anyone worth handing the ball toin the 9th inning. Relief prospects Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen haven't developed as quickly as the Red Sox would have liked, either. Boston already has a talented rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, with Julian Tavarez moving into the 5th starter position. Hopefully Jon Lester will return from cancer to claim the 5th starter's role in time. Given the talent and experience they have there, moving Papelbon to the bullpen makes a lot of sense. They better hope the irregular pattern of being a closer doesn't cause more shoulder concerns for Papelbon, but I doubt they'd make the move unless they were fairly certain this is the case.
Fantasy Impact: For those who have already drafted, Papelbon moves from a potential #4/#5 starter for your fantasy team to your team's best closer just like that. This is big news for all teams since it's much easier to find a capable replacement starter than it is to land an elite closer. For those who haven't drafted, adjust your rankings immediately. Papelbon joins the elite closers such as Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, and Billy Wagner, and should be taken in the 4th/5th round area. Beware of more shoulder problems when drafting, though, so I'd still take K-Rod and Nathan ahead of him.
Texans Trade For Matt Schaub
The Houston Texans have acquired QB Matt Schaub from the Atlanta Falcons for a 2007 2nd round pick, a 2008 2nd round pick, and a swap of the #8 and #10 overall picks for 2007. See that door, David Carr? Don't let it sack you on the way out.
Houston immediately signed Schaub to a big extension, ensuring that he's the unquestioned starting QB. What remains to be seen is if Schaub is a legitimate starting QB like some NFL scouts seem to think he is, or if he's a victim of comparison to Michael Vick's shortcomings at the QB position. He's not being put into the best situation in that Houston's offensive line is still suspect, Ahman Green is a partially broken down 30 year old RB, and they have nothing to throw to opposite Andre Johnson. However, David Carr's mental state has to be questioned after being sacked so many times in his career, and one would think that Schaub will immediately bring a stronger pocket presence and decision making.
While this makes it even more important that Vick stays healthy and improves his throwing deficiencies this season, there wasn't any question that he's still the starting QB of the present and future for this franchise. Even if they had doubts, the economics of releasing him weren't kind given the cap hit they'd have to endure. Schaub would have been a free agent at the end of this season, and there's no question some team would have signed him to become their starter. That all said, Atlanta made out like a bandit here. They traded a QB who would only play if Vick got hurt, and turned him into 2 2nd round picks, 1 in each this year's draft and next year's draft, and also got to move up 2 spots in this year's first round as well. Given Petrino is changing this offense, it gives them additional firepower to upgrade. There's rumors that Atlanta could use the additional picks to move up farther in the 1st round and get Calvin Johnson, but I still don't think they have enough to move up, especially if Oakland wants to take him. There's a very strong chance that Atlanta drafts former Petrino RB Michael Bush in the 2nd round now, especially since he'll be a perfect fit into their new offensive scheme.
Fantasy Impact: Schaub is a first time starter in a less than average offense, so I wouldn't want him as a QB2. He's someone to keep an eye on, but that's it. Schaub should give the passing game a slight boost, but Ahman Green's value is more tied to his durability (or lack of) and the play of the offensive line, so I wouldn't adjust him anywhere at this point. Andre Johnson stands to benefit the most as Schaub has a fairly strong arm and one has to think Houston will take more shots down the field to utilize his insane speed/size combination. Look for more big plays from AJ this season, and he's a great WR2 with stronger WR1 upside now. There's nobody else in their receiving group that's even worth drafting at this point.
Houston immediately signed Schaub to a big extension, ensuring that he's the unquestioned starting QB. What remains to be seen is if Schaub is a legitimate starting QB like some NFL scouts seem to think he is, or if he's a victim of comparison to Michael Vick's shortcomings at the QB position. He's not being put into the best situation in that Houston's offensive line is still suspect, Ahman Green is a partially broken down 30 year old RB, and they have nothing to throw to opposite Andre Johnson. However, David Carr's mental state has to be questioned after being sacked so many times in his career, and one would think that Schaub will immediately bring a stronger pocket presence and decision making.
While this makes it even more important that Vick stays healthy and improves his throwing deficiencies this season, there wasn't any question that he's still the starting QB of the present and future for this franchise. Even if they had doubts, the economics of releasing him weren't kind given the cap hit they'd have to endure. Schaub would have been a free agent at the end of this season, and there's no question some team would have signed him to become their starter. That all said, Atlanta made out like a bandit here. They traded a QB who would only play if Vick got hurt, and turned him into 2 2nd round picks, 1 in each this year's draft and next year's draft, and also got to move up 2 spots in this year's first round as well. Given Petrino is changing this offense, it gives them additional firepower to upgrade. There's rumors that Atlanta could use the additional picks to move up farther in the 1st round and get Calvin Johnson, but I still don't think they have enough to move up, especially if Oakland wants to take him. There's a very strong chance that Atlanta drafts former Petrino RB Michael Bush in the 2nd round now, especially since he'll be a perfect fit into their new offensive scheme.
Fantasy Impact: Schaub is a first time starter in a less than average offense, so I wouldn't want him as a QB2. He's someone to keep an eye on, but that's it. Schaub should give the passing game a slight boost, but Ahman Green's value is more tied to his durability (or lack of) and the play of the offensive line, so I wouldn't adjust him anywhere at this point. Andre Johnson stands to benefit the most as Schaub has a fairly strong arm and one has to think Houston will take more shots down the field to utilize his insane speed/size combination. Look for more big plays from AJ this season, and he's a great WR2 with stronger WR1 upside now. There's nobody else in their receiving group that's even worth drafting at this point.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Bears Trade For Adam Archuleta
The Chicago Bears have traded a conditional 2007 6th round draft pick to the Washington Redskins for S Adam Archuleta.
I love this deal for my beloved Bears. They really wanted to sign him last offseason, but as Washington always does, they overpaid and got him. An atrocious year later, the 'Skins have given up on their investment and have traded him away for peanuts. Gotta love an idiot with money! Well, unless he's running (ruining?) your favorite team.
Archuleta's stock was on the rise while playing S for the St. Louis Rams under Lovie Smith. It appears as though he fits best in a Cover 2 scheme as he thrived in St. Louis, but crashed in Washington's man-to-man defense. He's a big hitter who's great in run support, but has coverage issues. Playing in a 2 deep scheme will allow him to defend an area as opposed to a man, and re-uniting him with his old defensive coordinator might be just what he needs to re-emerge as a quality safety. Given the problems the Bears have had with their safeties, this is a cheap price to pay for someone who could prove to be a valuable performer.
Mike Brown is injury-prone and coming back from a nasty foot fracture, Chris Harris can't cover even in a 2 deep scheme, and rumor has it that Danieal Manning might move to cornerback. Given Todd Johnson has left via free agency and Mike Brown could be cut if he doesn't restructure the contract he's earning without playing, this filled a big void on defense at a bargain price. Kudos, Jerry Angelo!
I love this deal for my beloved Bears. They really wanted to sign him last offseason, but as Washington always does, they overpaid and got him. An atrocious year later, the 'Skins have given up on their investment and have traded him away for peanuts. Gotta love an idiot with money! Well, unless he's running (ruining?) your favorite team.
Archuleta's stock was on the rise while playing S for the St. Louis Rams under Lovie Smith. It appears as though he fits best in a Cover 2 scheme as he thrived in St. Louis, but crashed in Washington's man-to-man defense. He's a big hitter who's great in run support, but has coverage issues. Playing in a 2 deep scheme will allow him to defend an area as opposed to a man, and re-uniting him with his old defensive coordinator might be just what he needs to re-emerge as a quality safety. Given the problems the Bears have had with their safeties, this is a cheap price to pay for someone who could prove to be a valuable performer.
Mike Brown is injury-prone and coming back from a nasty foot fracture, Chris Harris can't cover even in a 2 deep scheme, and rumor has it that Danieal Manning might move to cornerback. Given Todd Johnson has left via free agency and Mike Brown could be cut if he doesn't restructure the contract he's earning without playing, this filled a big void on defense at a bargain price. Kudos, Jerry Angelo!
Eagles Sign Kevin Curtis
Philly wasn't active early on in free agency, but this is an excellent signing for them. Re-signing Stallworth was not worth it to the franchise thanks to his injuries and history of drops. To be honest, I think Kevin Curtis is almost identical to Stallworth, but without the hamstring problems, dropped passes, and hefty pricetag. He'll fit right into Stallworth's role in the offense as the deep threat. Curtis is only an inch shorter than Stallworth, has similar speed, has better hands, and runs better routes. He should fit perfectly into their offense.
Fantasy Impact: His value relies slightly on McNabb's recovery from a torn ACL. Philly has confidence that A.J. Feeley will be a solid backup as evidenced by them signing him to a 3 year deal this offseason, but obviously Feeley doesn't have arm or mobility that McNabb possesses. At any rate, in Philly's pass-first offense, Curtis should be a reliable WR3 on a weekly basis, with a bit more upside if McNabb is healthy. Reggie Brown will be the #1 WR, but Curtis should provide more big plays.
Fantasy Impact: His value relies slightly on McNabb's recovery from a torn ACL. Philly has confidence that A.J. Feeley will be a solid backup as evidenced by them signing him to a 3 year deal this offseason, but obviously Feeley doesn't have arm or mobility that McNabb possesses. At any rate, in Philly's pass-first offense, Curtis should be a reliable WR3 on a weekly basis, with a bit more upside if McNabb is healthy. Reggie Brown will be the #1 WR, but Curtis should provide more big plays.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
My Completed Fantasy Baseball Team
Our draft is complete and here is my final drafted roster:
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Hank Blalock, B.J. Upton
OF - Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jonny Gomes, Chris Young, Jeremy Hermida
SP - Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling, John Patterson, Daniel Cabrera, Mark Prior
RP - Joe Nathan, Takashi Saito, Scot Shields, Scott Linebrink
Overall I'm pretty happy with my choices. I have a lot of bounceback candidates on offense (Kent, Peralta, Blalock), but those are the way to go in the later rounds. I believe all 3 of these guys will outperform their draft position. Peralta has reportedly worked on his range in the offseason and is playing better defense, and whenever that happens for a guy who took criticism on that part of his game, he relaxes at the plate more and usually hits better. Blalock is now healthy, and with a great coach guiding him along, he's still young enough to get back to becoming a great 3B. Upton is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Tampa Bay is playing him all over the diamond with the hopes of using him as their super utility man this season, and his offensive potential is amazing. He has 50 steal speed, plus good pop for a middle infielder. He's only eligible at 3B for right now, but he's been playing 2B, SS, and OF as well this spring. They're moving him around because his defense at SS, his drafted position, was dreadful in the minors as he committed a ton of errors. Moving him around might seem stupid, but they want him to play all over to see where he best fits so they can get his bat into the lineup. If he becomes eligible at all of those positions while playing 5-6 times a week, he'll be very valuable. Kendrick is a young hitter whom I look to take a big step forward this year. I think he's the best 2B value in the draft as he has the offensive ability to settle in right behind Utley as fantasy baseball's best offensive 2B.
My starting pitching is very solid, especially with Cabrera having a lights out spring so far. It seems like the laser eye surgery he had this offseason has improved his command (the goggles he doned last year helped him down the stretch), and he's a great breakout candidate. My bullpen is solid too. I only have 2 closers, but that's OK to start with. I was very displeased that Broxton went too early as I would have really liked to pair him with Saito. As it stands now, I own two of the best middle relievers in the game who will soldify my ratios, give me plenty of Ks, and add a few wins (both had 7 last year). I only drafted two closers last year (Gordon, Ray) and ended up winning the saves catagory as teams that fall out of it look to dump their closers in order to improve their keepers. Plus the waiver wire produces great closers seemingly every year as Jon Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito are examples of.
After waivers cleared (I have #1 waiver priority, and I'm definitely saving that), I decided to help my inexperienced OF depth. I don't want to start Hermida right off the bat, so here's what I did:
Dropped Jonny Gomes, Picked Up Aubrey Huff
Gomes has been dreadful so far this spring, flirting with the .100 mark while hitting both of his HRs in the same game. Given he's battling for playing time, I don't need to be potentially starting someone who's fighting to start and get at bats. Huff should have been drafted, and I'm surprised he wasn't. He had a big year for Tampa Bay in 2003, and followed that up with a very solid 2004. He's struggled the last two seasons, but he'll be hitting 5th behind Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Tejada, so he should have plenty of RBI chances. He's eligible at both OF and 3B, and position eligibility is a nice bonus for offensive players. Their versatility helps fill the gaps when players get a day off.
Dropped Mark Prior, Picked Up Moises Alou
Mark Prior has topped out at 87 MPH on the gun, and will actually be making his next spring training start in the minors while he works out his issues. Given his injury past and his ineffectiveness this spring so far, it's not looking good for him. He's not worth stashing in a mixed league right now. I drafted him late hoping he'd throw well in the spring, but he's been about as bad as possible so far. Alou has remained a very effective hitter despite his age, and he'll be hitting 6th in a loaded Mets lineup. At least one DL stint is guaranteed, but he still has good power and will have lots of RBI chances hitting behind Beltran, Delgado, and Wright. He's hit at least .280 3 years running, so he won't hurt my batting average either.
Let the season begin!
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Hank Blalock, B.J. Upton
OF - Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jonny Gomes, Chris Young, Jeremy Hermida
SP - Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling, John Patterson, Daniel Cabrera, Mark Prior
RP - Joe Nathan, Takashi Saito, Scot Shields, Scott Linebrink
Overall I'm pretty happy with my choices. I have a lot of bounceback candidates on offense (Kent, Peralta, Blalock), but those are the way to go in the later rounds. I believe all 3 of these guys will outperform their draft position. Peralta has reportedly worked on his range in the offseason and is playing better defense, and whenever that happens for a guy who took criticism on that part of his game, he relaxes at the plate more and usually hits better. Blalock is now healthy, and with a great coach guiding him along, he's still young enough to get back to becoming a great 3B. Upton is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Tampa Bay is playing him all over the diamond with the hopes of using him as their super utility man this season, and his offensive potential is amazing. He has 50 steal speed, plus good pop for a middle infielder. He's only eligible at 3B for right now, but he's been playing 2B, SS, and OF as well this spring. They're moving him around because his defense at SS, his drafted position, was dreadful in the minors as he committed a ton of errors. Moving him around might seem stupid, but they want him to play all over to see where he best fits so they can get his bat into the lineup. If he becomes eligible at all of those positions while playing 5-6 times a week, he'll be very valuable. Kendrick is a young hitter whom I look to take a big step forward this year. I think he's the best 2B value in the draft as he has the offensive ability to settle in right behind Utley as fantasy baseball's best offensive 2B.
My starting pitching is very solid, especially with Cabrera having a lights out spring so far. It seems like the laser eye surgery he had this offseason has improved his command (the goggles he doned last year helped him down the stretch), and he's a great breakout candidate. My bullpen is solid too. I only have 2 closers, but that's OK to start with. I was very displeased that Broxton went too early as I would have really liked to pair him with Saito. As it stands now, I own two of the best middle relievers in the game who will soldify my ratios, give me plenty of Ks, and add a few wins (both had 7 last year). I only drafted two closers last year (Gordon, Ray) and ended up winning the saves catagory as teams that fall out of it look to dump their closers in order to improve their keepers. Plus the waiver wire produces great closers seemingly every year as Jon Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito are examples of.
After waivers cleared (I have #1 waiver priority, and I'm definitely saving that), I decided to help my inexperienced OF depth. I don't want to start Hermida right off the bat, so here's what I did:
Dropped Jonny Gomes, Picked Up Aubrey Huff
Gomes has been dreadful so far this spring, flirting with the .100 mark while hitting both of his HRs in the same game. Given he's battling for playing time, I don't need to be potentially starting someone who's fighting to start and get at bats. Huff should have been drafted, and I'm surprised he wasn't. He had a big year for Tampa Bay in 2003, and followed that up with a very solid 2004. He's struggled the last two seasons, but he'll be hitting 5th behind Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Tejada, so he should have plenty of RBI chances. He's eligible at both OF and 3B, and position eligibility is a nice bonus for offensive players. Their versatility helps fill the gaps when players get a day off.
Dropped Mark Prior, Picked Up Moises Alou
Mark Prior has topped out at 87 MPH on the gun, and will actually be making his next spring training start in the minors while he works out his issues. Given his injury past and his ineffectiveness this spring so far, it's not looking good for him. He's not worth stashing in a mixed league right now. I drafted him late hoping he'd throw well in the spring, but he's been about as bad as possible so far. Alou has remained a very effective hitter despite his age, and he'll be hitting 6th in a loaded Mets lineup. At least one DL stint is guaranteed, but he still has good power and will have lots of RBI chances hitting behind Beltran, Delgado, and Wright. He's hit at least .280 3 years running, so he won't hurt my batting average either.
Let the season begin!
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Baltimore Trades For Willis McGahee
This may be a curious move to some from Buffalo's point of view, but let me explain this from both sides. From Baltimore's side, it was obvious over the past two seasons that Jamal Lewis has lost it. Their defense is ready to win now, as is McNair, so they needed a young, powerful running attack to complete their team and give them a chance to reach the Super Bowl next year. McGahee gives them exactly that, and while he's disappointed the past two seasons, he hasn't lost his talent. He's been mired in a horrible offensive situation the past two seasons, running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football combined with a very erratic, mostly ineffective passing attack. He had a monster senior year at Miami before tearing up his knee, and then he turned in a huge 2004 season after recovering from that knee injury and taking over for Travis Henry. Once Bledsoe left, who helped McGahee out a lot in 2004, Buffalo was without a QB ready to play at the NFL level, and the offense took a sharp decline.
Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.
Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.
Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.
Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.
Free Agency In Full Force, Part 2
Here's the 2nd round of free agency deals:
Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes
I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.
Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.
Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis
Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.
Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.
New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns
This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.
Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.
Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett
Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.
Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.
New England Signs Donte Stallworth
New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.
Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.
Atlanta Signs Joe Horn
This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.
New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.
St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael
Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.
Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes
I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.
Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.
Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis
Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.
Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.
New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns
This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.
Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.
Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett
Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.
Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.
New England Signs Donte Stallworth
New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.
Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.
Atlanta Signs Joe Horn
This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.
New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.
St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael
Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Thomas Jones Traded To The New York Jets
Our 2nd big trade of the NFL offseason as my Chicago Bears traded RB Thomas Jones to the New York Jets.
When I first heard about the compensation they received, which was trading Thomas Jones and their 2nd round pick (63rd overall) for the New York Jets 2nd round pick (37th overall), I was disappointed. I thought they could have done better by getting a stand alone draft choice instead of using Jones to move up.
However, upon second review of the deal, I'm pleased with the situation. Veteran RBs are hard to trade because they require both a draft choice in return along with a new contract. Thomas Jones will be 29 years old when the 2007 season starts, and while he doesn't have as much mileage on his legs as most 29 year old featured RBs, he still is getting to the age where RBs start to see a decline in their production. Instead of receiving a stand alone 3rd round pick, which was reportedly an option, they wanted to move up in the 2nd round instead. The Bears now possess the 31st and 37th overall picks, putting them in an advantageous position. They can either nab two potential starters with these picks, or they can use them to move up in the first round if someone falls that they covet. The Jets acquire a solid starting RB and only move down in the 2nd round. I think this trade is beneficial to both sides.
Fantasy Impact: Thomas Jones remains the same as he was a Bear the last several seasons, a solid RB2 selection. He won't see a lot more carries in New York, but without Benson there, he should remain the primary option on 1st and 2nd downs throughout the game. Jones excels at both catching the ball and blocking, but the Jets remain high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, and Washington will probably assume some of the role on 3rd downs that Jones had in Chicago. Washington remains intriguing enough to draft as a end-of-the-roster RB, but I don't know if he'd see the majority of the carries if Jones got hurt, dulling his upside.
Cedric Benson becomes a rock solid RB2. He won't be a factor in the passing game as he doesn't catch the ball and block as well as he should, so he'll never be an elite RB1, but he'll handle most of the carries and score most of the TDs. Some may be scared by his "injury history", but he was a workhorse through both high school and college at elite programs, and his two injuries in the pros have been freak knee injuries. He loves to run over people and is quicker to the outside than most expected him to be. Adrian Peterson will assume the backup RB position on the Bears and will handle 3rd down duties. He's a nice RB4, or a handcuff for Benson owners. He'd be productive if Benson ever went down.
When I first heard about the compensation they received, which was trading Thomas Jones and their 2nd round pick (63rd overall) for the New York Jets 2nd round pick (37th overall), I was disappointed. I thought they could have done better by getting a stand alone draft choice instead of using Jones to move up.
However, upon second review of the deal, I'm pleased with the situation. Veteran RBs are hard to trade because they require both a draft choice in return along with a new contract. Thomas Jones will be 29 years old when the 2007 season starts, and while he doesn't have as much mileage on his legs as most 29 year old featured RBs, he still is getting to the age where RBs start to see a decline in their production. Instead of receiving a stand alone 3rd round pick, which was reportedly an option, they wanted to move up in the 2nd round instead. The Bears now possess the 31st and 37th overall picks, putting them in an advantageous position. They can either nab two potential starters with these picks, or they can use them to move up in the first round if someone falls that they covet. The Jets acquire a solid starting RB and only move down in the 2nd round. I think this trade is beneficial to both sides.
Fantasy Impact: Thomas Jones remains the same as he was a Bear the last several seasons, a solid RB2 selection. He won't see a lot more carries in New York, but without Benson there, he should remain the primary option on 1st and 2nd downs throughout the game. Jones excels at both catching the ball and blocking, but the Jets remain high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, and Washington will probably assume some of the role on 3rd downs that Jones had in Chicago. Washington remains intriguing enough to draft as a end-of-the-roster RB, but I don't know if he'd see the majority of the carries if Jones got hurt, dulling his upside.
Cedric Benson becomes a rock solid RB2. He won't be a factor in the passing game as he doesn't catch the ball and block as well as he should, so he'll never be an elite RB1, but he'll handle most of the carries and score most of the TDs. Some may be scared by his "injury history", but he was a workhorse through both high school and college at elite programs, and his two injuries in the pros have been freak knee injuries. He loves to run over people and is quicker to the outside than most expected him to be. Adrian Peterson will assume the backup RB position on the Bears and will handle 3rd down duties. He's a nice RB4, or a handcuff for Benson owners. He'd be productive if Benson ever went down.
Monday, March 5, 2007
Free Agency In Full Force
I tried to avoid posting here until there was some actual confirmed deals in NFL's free agency market. For those of us monitoring the NFL news to see who's going to sign where, there's a constant inundation of rumored visits, signings, and unfortunately erroneous reports of both. So, here's a lowdown of the fantasy impact so far:
Tampa Bay Signs Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia signed a deal to be Chris Simms' competition in Tampa Bay. Both QBs boast similar contracts, so economics will not be a deciding factor in this QB competition. Both are expected to start camp with a 50/50 chance. Simms has an edge by knowing the offense a bit better, but Garcia is a proven veteran who fits well into Gruden's offensive system. Whoever wins will be worth looking at as a QB2 in to draft later on as Gruden has a history of producing good stats from his quarterbacks. Galloway will again be the deep threat, and I'm sure Tampa is praying that Calvin Johnson will fall to them in the draft, although that's becoming increasingly unlikely as neither Russell nor Quinn have impressed. Michael Clayton better rekindly his play from his rookie year for the passing game to click, and they'd be better of utilizing Alex Smith more down the field.
Philly Fallout - McNabb is the unquestioned starter, and they signed AJ Feeley to a multi-year contract, ensuring Feeley is now the backup of the present and the future. I don't need to tell you that if McNabb isn't ready that Feeley won't produce the same numbers, but he'd be someone to keep an eye on and he's always been pretty good when Philly has needed him, and week 17 from last year is a good example of that.
Tampa Bay Trades For Jake Plummer
The Plummer deal was unofficially announced prior to the Garcia signing, and I was a bit baffled at first that Plummer wasn't interested in playing in Gruden's offense, but then again he came from Denver where he lost his job to youngster Jay Cutler. This possibility exists again with Chris Simms in Tampa, so I believe he's using his retirement threats to force another trade, possibly to Houston to play for his old offensive/QB coach Gary Kubiak. He obviously has no fantasy value on Tampa Bay, but at 31 I expect he's not done yet and something more will come of this story. Houston makes too much sense right now.
Denver Fallout - Jay Cutler will be a very good QB in Denver for years, so Denver is in the market to find a reliable backup. With Garcia and Brad Johnson signed elsewhere, perhaps they'd take a look at David Carr if Houston releases him.
Miami Releases Joey Harrington
This wouldn't normally be news, but given the Dolphins have a new coaching staff in place, and Culpepper's knee and decision making remain a question mark, this is actually noteworthy. Harrington was having a pretty solid year last year, but then collapsed at the end and has proven time and time again that he cannot be a starter in the NFL. Cleo Lemon, who impressed the previous coaching staff at the end of last season, is now in a full fledged QB battle with Culpepper to be the starting Miami QB. Cam Cameron has a successful past with offenses, making both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers borderline QB1's when they started for SD. Also, they did this with a dominant pass catching RB and TE, but little in the way of receiving talent. With Chambers and Booker, Cameron possesses the most talented WR duo he's worked with and this could pay dividends to the starting Miami QB. Whoever wins this battle might prove to be an interesting QB2 pick for next year.
Denver Signs Travis Henry
Travis Henry dynasty/keeper league owners just hit the jackpot. Henry will immediately be the featured RB for Denver next season. Henry is one of the more underrated RBs in the NFL, and he should be a great fit with his vision and yards after contact skills. People often forget that he was putting together a solid career in Buffalo, even playing through a partially fractured leg bone, before starting off slow in 2004 when McGahee took the job. 2005 was a lost season, but he performed very well last season in Tennessee gaining 1211 yards and rushing for 7 TDs. He's 28 years old and had 2 very light workload seasons, so he should have a good couple of years in Denver. Denver really scored big here getting a solid RB that fit their system for a good price.
Tennessee Fallout - LenDale White is currently atop the depth chart, and given his struggles last year, you can be sure Tennessee is in the market for competition. Chris Brown probably won't return, but Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon are options, as is the NFL draft. A veteran is the more likely scenario.
Houston Signs Ahman Green
This was a buzzkill for those of us expecting Houston to open up another enticing fantasy option at the RB position. Green got paid like he's expected to be the unquestioned starter. Mike Sherman, who coached some of Green's best years in Green Bay, is the offensive coordinator for Houston, so that bodes well as he'll know how to tailor the running game towards Green's strengths. However, Green is 30 years old and has battled several leg injuries over the past few seasons, and he wore down considerably in the 2nd half of last season. Chances of him remaining productive all year long are slim, and he'll come recommended as no more than a last ditch RB2, but better suited as a RB3 and solid trade bait if he starts the season strong.
Green Bay Fallout - Vernand Morency is currently atop the depth chart, and this is the same situation as Tennessee. Morency is an explosive back, but not the type of runner Green Bay will want to win the job uncontested. They'll continue to shop around and also eye the NFL draft. Marshawn Lynch from California is the popular mocked pick to Green Bay in the 1st round, but he ran a disappointing 40 time at the Combine and his stock has dropped some. I'm sure they'll have their eye on veterans as well.
Oakland Keeps Lamont Jordan
He had a large roster bonus due to him this summer, and as that time approached, rumors started to swirl that he'd be released. The fact of the matter is that Oakland is completely void of RB talent behind Jordan, they needed him to avoid creating another large hole on their roster. He would have immediately become the best RB on the market, and I think Oakland understood this. After two seasons that ended with injuries, Oakland was able to get him to decrease his roster bonus and will have him at least compete for the job next year with a youngster, if not start and hope he stays healthy. He's a risky RB2 pick, but could find new life with the different offensive system they have in place.
Miami Signs David Martin/Releases Randy McMichael
This might shock some, but it's long been known that McMichael relies too much on his talent. He's always been a fairly reliable lower TE1 option, but he drops way too many passes and hasn't worked enough on his blocking technique. Cameron has always designed his passing game in SD around Gates, and he apparently did not feel McMichael was worth what he was being paid given his deficiencies in his all-around game. David Martin becomes an immediate sleeper at the TE position. Martin has never stayed healthy, but has flashed impressive skills when he plays, and will be playing in a TE-friendly passing game.
Tampa Bay Signs Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia signed a deal to be Chris Simms' competition in Tampa Bay. Both QBs boast similar contracts, so economics will not be a deciding factor in this QB competition. Both are expected to start camp with a 50/50 chance. Simms has an edge by knowing the offense a bit better, but Garcia is a proven veteran who fits well into Gruden's offensive system. Whoever wins will be worth looking at as a QB2 in to draft later on as Gruden has a history of producing good stats from his quarterbacks. Galloway will again be the deep threat, and I'm sure Tampa is praying that Calvin Johnson will fall to them in the draft, although that's becoming increasingly unlikely as neither Russell nor Quinn have impressed. Michael Clayton better rekindly his play from his rookie year for the passing game to click, and they'd be better of utilizing Alex Smith more down the field.
Philly Fallout - McNabb is the unquestioned starter, and they signed AJ Feeley to a multi-year contract, ensuring Feeley is now the backup of the present and the future. I don't need to tell you that if McNabb isn't ready that Feeley won't produce the same numbers, but he'd be someone to keep an eye on and he's always been pretty good when Philly has needed him, and week 17 from last year is a good example of that.
Tampa Bay Trades For Jake Plummer
The Plummer deal was unofficially announced prior to the Garcia signing, and I was a bit baffled at first that Plummer wasn't interested in playing in Gruden's offense, but then again he came from Denver where he lost his job to youngster Jay Cutler. This possibility exists again with Chris Simms in Tampa, so I believe he's using his retirement threats to force another trade, possibly to Houston to play for his old offensive/QB coach Gary Kubiak. He obviously has no fantasy value on Tampa Bay, but at 31 I expect he's not done yet and something more will come of this story. Houston makes too much sense right now.
Denver Fallout - Jay Cutler will be a very good QB in Denver for years, so Denver is in the market to find a reliable backup. With Garcia and Brad Johnson signed elsewhere, perhaps they'd take a look at David Carr if Houston releases him.
Miami Releases Joey Harrington
This wouldn't normally be news, but given the Dolphins have a new coaching staff in place, and Culpepper's knee and decision making remain a question mark, this is actually noteworthy. Harrington was having a pretty solid year last year, but then collapsed at the end and has proven time and time again that he cannot be a starter in the NFL. Cleo Lemon, who impressed the previous coaching staff at the end of last season, is now in a full fledged QB battle with Culpepper to be the starting Miami QB. Cam Cameron has a successful past with offenses, making both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers borderline QB1's when they started for SD. Also, they did this with a dominant pass catching RB and TE, but little in the way of receiving talent. With Chambers and Booker, Cameron possesses the most talented WR duo he's worked with and this could pay dividends to the starting Miami QB. Whoever wins this battle might prove to be an interesting QB2 pick for next year.
Denver Signs Travis Henry
Travis Henry dynasty/keeper league owners just hit the jackpot. Henry will immediately be the featured RB for Denver next season. Henry is one of the more underrated RBs in the NFL, and he should be a great fit with his vision and yards after contact skills. People often forget that he was putting together a solid career in Buffalo, even playing through a partially fractured leg bone, before starting off slow in 2004 when McGahee took the job. 2005 was a lost season, but he performed very well last season in Tennessee gaining 1211 yards and rushing for 7 TDs. He's 28 years old and had 2 very light workload seasons, so he should have a good couple of years in Denver. Denver really scored big here getting a solid RB that fit their system for a good price.
Tennessee Fallout - LenDale White is currently atop the depth chart, and given his struggles last year, you can be sure Tennessee is in the market for competition. Chris Brown probably won't return, but Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon are options, as is the NFL draft. A veteran is the more likely scenario.
Houston Signs Ahman Green
This was a buzzkill for those of us expecting Houston to open up another enticing fantasy option at the RB position. Green got paid like he's expected to be the unquestioned starter. Mike Sherman, who coached some of Green's best years in Green Bay, is the offensive coordinator for Houston, so that bodes well as he'll know how to tailor the running game towards Green's strengths. However, Green is 30 years old and has battled several leg injuries over the past few seasons, and he wore down considerably in the 2nd half of last season. Chances of him remaining productive all year long are slim, and he'll come recommended as no more than a last ditch RB2, but better suited as a RB3 and solid trade bait if he starts the season strong.
Green Bay Fallout - Vernand Morency is currently atop the depth chart, and this is the same situation as Tennessee. Morency is an explosive back, but not the type of runner Green Bay will want to win the job uncontested. They'll continue to shop around and also eye the NFL draft. Marshawn Lynch from California is the popular mocked pick to Green Bay in the 1st round, but he ran a disappointing 40 time at the Combine and his stock has dropped some. I'm sure they'll have their eye on veterans as well.
Oakland Keeps Lamont Jordan
He had a large roster bonus due to him this summer, and as that time approached, rumors started to swirl that he'd be released. The fact of the matter is that Oakland is completely void of RB talent behind Jordan, they needed him to avoid creating another large hole on their roster. He would have immediately become the best RB on the market, and I think Oakland understood this. After two seasons that ended with injuries, Oakland was able to get him to decrease his roster bonus and will have him at least compete for the job next year with a youngster, if not start and hope he stays healthy. He's a risky RB2 pick, but could find new life with the different offensive system they have in place.
Miami Signs David Martin/Releases Randy McMichael
This might shock some, but it's long been known that McMichael relies too much on his talent. He's always been a fairly reliable lower TE1 option, but he drops way too many passes and hasn't worked enough on his blocking technique. Cameron has always designed his passing game in SD around Gates, and he apparently did not feel McMichael was worth what he was being paid given his deficiencies in his all-around game. David Martin becomes an immediate sleeper at the TE position. Martin has never stayed healthy, but has flashed impressive skills when he plays, and will be playing in a TE-friendly passing game.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Lions Trade Dre Bly To Broncos For Tatum Bell, George Foster
Today marked the first trade made this NFL offseason, with the Detroit Lions sending CB Dre Bly to the Denver Broncos for RB Tatum Bell and OT George Foster.
Denver is a big winner here, receiving CB Dre Bly. He's a former Pro-Bowl cornerback who fell out of favor with the Detroit coaching staff after Rod Marinelli implemented the Cover 2 last season. Bly is much more of a man-to-man, playmaking CB than he is a Cover 2 guy, and Denver pounced on the opportunity to replace the late Darrent Williams. Bly should experience a career resurgence within the new defense, and adding Bly to Champ Bailey will provide the Broncos with possibly the most talented CB duo in the league. After Manning torched the Broncos two years ago with a 400+ yard game in the first round of the playoffs, Denver has made it a priority to maintain a stronger defensive backfield, and this is just another example of that effort. Plus, they weren't going to start Tatum Bell or George Foster next year anyways, and this deal looks even better when you consider what exactly they gave up.
This creates a hole in their backfield, and it should be interesting to see how they fill that hole. Mike Bell is a capable backup, but he's not a starting RB in the NFL. With names like Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and Ricky Williams (assuming he's re-instated) available in the trade market, the Broncos might not be done dealing yet.
Detroit is helped by this trade as well. Kevin Jones suffered a severe Lisfranc foot fracture in week 14 last season, and his availability for the first part of the 2007 is in doubt. I've read varying reports on his timetable, but this is a tough injury to predict a recover schedule for. Tatum Bell gives them an explosive, but unreliable RB that will give KJ time to heal. Bell has always had breakaway speed, and playing on turf will suit his strengths. However, he's dealt with a myriad of minor injuries that have kept him out of several games seemingly each year he's been in the league. Plus, he had fumble problems last year as well. Mike Martz should help revive his career somewhat, but Tatum has one year left on his deal, and when KJ gets healthy I don't expect him to have any sort of major role. George Foster is a big, young OT. He didn't really suit the zone blocking scheme that the Broncos used as he isn't either small or quick. He could prove to be the more valuable property from this trade as he's only 26 years old and could prove far more valuable in a non-zone blocking offensive scheme. Still, with all that being said, they could have done better in return for the former Pro-Bowler Bly.
Detroit has two offensive tackles in their mid-20s in Jeff Backus and George Foster, so the rumors that they were interested in Joe Thomas with the 2nd overall pick can now be put to rest. With KJ and Tatum Bell, they don't need Adrian Peterson either. Free agency might provide another clue to the puzzle if they land Kevin Curtis as is rumored. Curtis would be a great fit opposite Roy Williams, plus he knows Martz's offensve well from St. Louis. If they sign Curtis, Calvin Johnson isn't an option either. Unless Martz falls in love with one of the top QB prospects, the Lions are a prime candidate to trade down. Depending on how far they trade down, they might still be able to land one of Quinn and Russell while accumulating more value for their pick.
Fantasy Impact: Bly gives Denver another playmaker in the secondary, so their defensive unit gets a slight boost. Until they can rush the passer consistently, however, they'll remain behind the elite, start-every-week defensive units like Chicago and Baltimore. They'll still hold opponents to less points and less yards than most of the defenses and can be used most weeks, though.
Tatum Bell, if he avoids injury and the fumble bug, should be a nice RB2 value in Detroit until KJ returns. He'll be a good mid-round pick depending on how much time KJ is slated to miss. Martz will find creative ways to get him the ball when he's in the game and utilize his gamebreaking speed. I expect if he's successful, he'll maintain some sort of role when KJ returns, which is more of a hinderance on KJ's value than it is a boost to Tatum's value. KJ is without question the better RB when healthy, so Tatum's value will be directly linked to how much time KJ misses. It's definitely not the best news for KJ's owners in keeper leagues, but like I said before, Tatum is only signed for one season, so don't go overboard yet. KJ is better suited as a RB2 if healthy with Tatum around rather than a RB1, however.
Denver is a big winner here, receiving CB Dre Bly. He's a former Pro-Bowl cornerback who fell out of favor with the Detroit coaching staff after Rod Marinelli implemented the Cover 2 last season. Bly is much more of a man-to-man, playmaking CB than he is a Cover 2 guy, and Denver pounced on the opportunity to replace the late Darrent Williams. Bly should experience a career resurgence within the new defense, and adding Bly to Champ Bailey will provide the Broncos with possibly the most talented CB duo in the league. After Manning torched the Broncos two years ago with a 400+ yard game in the first round of the playoffs, Denver has made it a priority to maintain a stronger defensive backfield, and this is just another example of that effort. Plus, they weren't going to start Tatum Bell or George Foster next year anyways, and this deal looks even better when you consider what exactly they gave up.
This creates a hole in their backfield, and it should be interesting to see how they fill that hole. Mike Bell is a capable backup, but he's not a starting RB in the NFL. With names like Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and Ricky Williams (assuming he's re-instated) available in the trade market, the Broncos might not be done dealing yet.
Detroit is helped by this trade as well. Kevin Jones suffered a severe Lisfranc foot fracture in week 14 last season, and his availability for the first part of the 2007 is in doubt. I've read varying reports on his timetable, but this is a tough injury to predict a recover schedule for. Tatum Bell gives them an explosive, but unreliable RB that will give KJ time to heal. Bell has always had breakaway speed, and playing on turf will suit his strengths. However, he's dealt with a myriad of minor injuries that have kept him out of several games seemingly each year he's been in the league. Plus, he had fumble problems last year as well. Mike Martz should help revive his career somewhat, but Tatum has one year left on his deal, and when KJ gets healthy I don't expect him to have any sort of major role. George Foster is a big, young OT. He didn't really suit the zone blocking scheme that the Broncos used as he isn't either small or quick. He could prove to be the more valuable property from this trade as he's only 26 years old and could prove far more valuable in a non-zone blocking offensive scheme. Still, with all that being said, they could have done better in return for the former Pro-Bowler Bly.
Detroit has two offensive tackles in their mid-20s in Jeff Backus and George Foster, so the rumors that they were interested in Joe Thomas with the 2nd overall pick can now be put to rest. With KJ and Tatum Bell, they don't need Adrian Peterson either. Free agency might provide another clue to the puzzle if they land Kevin Curtis as is rumored. Curtis would be a great fit opposite Roy Williams, plus he knows Martz's offensve well from St. Louis. If they sign Curtis, Calvin Johnson isn't an option either. Unless Martz falls in love with one of the top QB prospects, the Lions are a prime candidate to trade down. Depending on how far they trade down, they might still be able to land one of Quinn and Russell while accumulating more value for their pick.
Fantasy Impact: Bly gives Denver another playmaker in the secondary, so their defensive unit gets a slight boost. Until they can rush the passer consistently, however, they'll remain behind the elite, start-every-week defensive units like Chicago and Baltimore. They'll still hold opponents to less points and less yards than most of the defenses and can be used most weeks, though.
Tatum Bell, if he avoids injury and the fumble bug, should be a nice RB2 value in Detroit until KJ returns. He'll be a good mid-round pick depending on how much time KJ is slated to miss. Martz will find creative ways to get him the ball when he's in the game and utilize his gamebreaking speed. I expect if he's successful, he'll maintain some sort of role when KJ returns, which is more of a hinderance on KJ's value than it is a boost to Tatum's value. KJ is without question the better RB when healthy, so Tatum's value will be directly linked to how much time KJ misses. It's definitely not the best news for KJ's owners in keeper leagues, but like I said before, Tatum is only signed for one season, so don't go overboard yet. KJ is better suited as a RB2 if healthy with Tatum around rather than a RB1, however.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
NFL Combine
The NFL Combine is like big company CEO's releasing their quarterly earnings...all the NFL bigwigs are intently watching the outcome for each player and adjusting their draft boards accordingly. I wanted to highlight the 4 biggest offensive stars, and thus the 4 most likely to make an impact in fantasy leagues.
Big Winners:
Calvin Johnson, WR, GT - Calvin ran a blazing 4.35 at the combine. Now, 4.35 isn't "blazing" as a number by itself, but considering the guy is 6'5, 239 pounds, it sure is "blazing" in a relative sense. Guys that big just don't run that fast, Calvin Johnson excluded. The only real question about this man heading into the draft was exactly how fast he was, and that question was answered in a resounding fashion. He is probably the best WR prospect to come out in my lifetime, and the surest bet for big NFL production since Larry Fitzgerald, who was also considered a "can't miss" prsopect himself. Johnson is even bigger and faster than Fitzgerald while matching his hard working, solid character reputation. The only question left is which team he'll be putting up big numbers for.
Given his 40 time, he just made himself available to the Raiders with the 1st overall pick. If he stood out this much at QB or RB, he'd be the surefire #1 pick. It's only that he plays WR that there's any question about where exactly he'll go in the top 5. Given the Raiders are likely to dump Moss and possibly Porter as well, that would leave Curry and Gabriel, and neither are a #1 guy. The Raiders might convince themselves to give Walter competition in the 2nd round and take the best player on the draft board in Calvin Johnson. The Lions pick 2nd, but I can't see them taking Johnson. If he falls to #2, I'm sure they'll entertain each and every phone call as I expect them to make a hard run at Kevin Curtis in free agency. Cleveland won the coin flip over Tampa Bay for the #3 pick, but they have bigger needs than WR, although combining Johnson with Braylon Edwards could help make up for the fact neither Frye nor Anderson are going to be stars. Tampa is #4, and Gruden would be elated if he fell to them. They have a bigtime need for a young WR.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - Peterson ran a 4.40 40 yard dash, cementing him as the best RB in the draft. After an amazing freshman year, an ankle injury his sophomore year and a broken collarbone his junior year have somewhat derailed what might have been a record breaking 3 years at Oklahoma. Despite those 2 fluky injuries, his great size (6'2, 218) and speed combination make him an elite prospect. He put up big numbers in college when he was healthy. There's a bit of concern about his durability given those injuries, but like I mentioned before both injuries were more fluky than anything else. Further proof of that was Peterson suffered no repeat ankle problems his junior year.
Cleveland would love to take him at #3 as they have the biggest need at the RB position of the teams in the top 4, where Peterson will most likely be drafted. I doubt Oakland is considering him at all, and while the Lions don't know Kevin Jones' availability for the 2007 season, he had too strong of a 2006 season for them to seriously consider a RB here, especially given they have much bigger needs such as the OL (Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin?). If he slips past Cleveland somehow, I imagine the Texans will be calling any team official with a pulse on a team ahead of them to move up and take him since none of those teams have a RB need and would entertain the idea of trading down a few spots.
Slight Winner:
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - Brady Quinn showed up ripped and tossed up 24 reps of the 225 pound bench press. That's an impressive number for a QB, and combining that strength with his 6'5 frame and the pro offense tutiledge he received from Charlie Weiss, and Quinn might have put himself back into the running to be the top QB taken in the draft.
That being said, however, the Raiders pick 1st and Al Davis loves pure athletes, so I have to think Jamarcus Russell is still #1 on their board. However, Quinn would make a great QB for the Lions. I'm sure Mike Martz would really like to add him to run their offense as they don't have a surefire QB of the future behind Jon Kitna. He can say all he wants about Josh McCown and Dan Orlovsky, but they aren't in Quinn's league. Quinn's intelligence and advanced knowlege of a pro style offense will ease his transition into the NFL, and Kitna is set to run the Lions again this year, so he'll have a year to study the playbook and practice before they want him on the field. The Lions are playing coy regarding the QB position so far, but I'm sure Quinn is very high on their draft board.
Slight Loser:
Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Russell showed up to the NFL combine at 6'5 1/2 and 265 pounds. People said he lacked muscle definition for a player of his size, and that he "looked more like Charles Barkley than a football player". Combining this with the contrast of how Brady Quinn looked, and some NFL officials may wonder about the work ethic difference between the two. Given Russell's tremendous raw skills, I'm not sure how much stock will be put into this.
As I mentioned before, Russell's skills seem to fit the type of player Al Davis likes, so I think he'll maintain the edge to go #1 overall. I can't see Martz wanting Russell at #2, so if Oakland for some reason decides to go with Calvin Johnson, Russell might have to wait a bit before being selected. There's some rumor that Cleveland would be interested if he falls to them, but with Frye and Anderson already on board, that seems a bit of a stretch. Granted neither Frye nor Anderson possess the potential Russell does, but Romeo Crennell is on the hot seat and I think Peterson would make more of a 1st year impact for them than either QB would.
All in all, I think this was more Johnson and Peterson confirming their status as the elite talent at their respective positions than doing much to shake up the top of the NFL draft. They both did so in an impressive fashion, however, proving how much talent differential there is between them and the rest of the players at their position. The fact is that Oakland and Detroit both need a QB of the future more than anything, Cleveland needs a great RB more than anything, and Tampa Bay needs a young WR more than anything. But I digress, as the NFL Draft always presents us with a few surprises and I don't put much stock into mock drafts whatsoever. Plus, Quinn and Russell still have more throwing drills to do in their pro days as they attempt to become the clearcut #1 QB in this draft. All 4 of these players would make at least some sense on any of the top 4 teams, with the exception of Peterson going to Tampa Bay. I suspect Quinn is the only one with a chance to tumble out of the top 4, but he has a Notre Dame pro day left to prove he belongs with the elite prospects.
Fantasy Impact: Calvin Johnson will probably make a nice WR3 investment this season, although the investment still resides on which offense he'll be playing for. Usually fantasy football players use the "3rd year theory" with WRs, but guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Marques Colston prove that rookie WRs can make a profound impact on your fantasy team. Peterson will most likely be a mid-level RB2, even in Cleveland. Quinn and Russell will likely have no fantasy value their first seasons, but will be drafted high in dynasty leagues. Their order will most likely be determined by the teams they land on as well.
Big Winners:
Calvin Johnson, WR, GT - Calvin ran a blazing 4.35 at the combine. Now, 4.35 isn't "blazing" as a number by itself, but considering the guy is 6'5, 239 pounds, it sure is "blazing" in a relative sense. Guys that big just don't run that fast, Calvin Johnson excluded. The only real question about this man heading into the draft was exactly how fast he was, and that question was answered in a resounding fashion. He is probably the best WR prospect to come out in my lifetime, and the surest bet for big NFL production since Larry Fitzgerald, who was also considered a "can't miss" prsopect himself. Johnson is even bigger and faster than Fitzgerald while matching his hard working, solid character reputation. The only question left is which team he'll be putting up big numbers for.
Given his 40 time, he just made himself available to the Raiders with the 1st overall pick. If he stood out this much at QB or RB, he'd be the surefire #1 pick. It's only that he plays WR that there's any question about where exactly he'll go in the top 5. Given the Raiders are likely to dump Moss and possibly Porter as well, that would leave Curry and Gabriel, and neither are a #1 guy. The Raiders might convince themselves to give Walter competition in the 2nd round and take the best player on the draft board in Calvin Johnson. The Lions pick 2nd, but I can't see them taking Johnson. If he falls to #2, I'm sure they'll entertain each and every phone call as I expect them to make a hard run at Kevin Curtis in free agency. Cleveland won the coin flip over Tampa Bay for the #3 pick, but they have bigger needs than WR, although combining Johnson with Braylon Edwards could help make up for the fact neither Frye nor Anderson are going to be stars. Tampa is #4, and Gruden would be elated if he fell to them. They have a bigtime need for a young WR.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - Peterson ran a 4.40 40 yard dash, cementing him as the best RB in the draft. After an amazing freshman year, an ankle injury his sophomore year and a broken collarbone his junior year have somewhat derailed what might have been a record breaking 3 years at Oklahoma. Despite those 2 fluky injuries, his great size (6'2, 218) and speed combination make him an elite prospect. He put up big numbers in college when he was healthy. There's a bit of concern about his durability given those injuries, but like I mentioned before both injuries were more fluky than anything else. Further proof of that was Peterson suffered no repeat ankle problems his junior year.
Cleveland would love to take him at #3 as they have the biggest need at the RB position of the teams in the top 4, where Peterson will most likely be drafted. I doubt Oakland is considering him at all, and while the Lions don't know Kevin Jones' availability for the 2007 season, he had too strong of a 2006 season for them to seriously consider a RB here, especially given they have much bigger needs such as the OL (Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin?). If he slips past Cleveland somehow, I imagine the Texans will be calling any team official with a pulse on a team ahead of them to move up and take him since none of those teams have a RB need and would entertain the idea of trading down a few spots.
Slight Winner:
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - Brady Quinn showed up ripped and tossed up 24 reps of the 225 pound bench press. That's an impressive number for a QB, and combining that strength with his 6'5 frame and the pro offense tutiledge he received from Charlie Weiss, and Quinn might have put himself back into the running to be the top QB taken in the draft.
That being said, however, the Raiders pick 1st and Al Davis loves pure athletes, so I have to think Jamarcus Russell is still #1 on their board. However, Quinn would make a great QB for the Lions. I'm sure Mike Martz would really like to add him to run their offense as they don't have a surefire QB of the future behind Jon Kitna. He can say all he wants about Josh McCown and Dan Orlovsky, but they aren't in Quinn's league. Quinn's intelligence and advanced knowlege of a pro style offense will ease his transition into the NFL, and Kitna is set to run the Lions again this year, so he'll have a year to study the playbook and practice before they want him on the field. The Lions are playing coy regarding the QB position so far, but I'm sure Quinn is very high on their draft board.
Slight Loser:
Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Russell showed up to the NFL combine at 6'5 1/2 and 265 pounds. People said he lacked muscle definition for a player of his size, and that he "looked more like Charles Barkley than a football player". Combining this with the contrast of how Brady Quinn looked, and some NFL officials may wonder about the work ethic difference between the two. Given Russell's tremendous raw skills, I'm not sure how much stock will be put into this.
As I mentioned before, Russell's skills seem to fit the type of player Al Davis likes, so I think he'll maintain the edge to go #1 overall. I can't see Martz wanting Russell at #2, so if Oakland for some reason decides to go with Calvin Johnson, Russell might have to wait a bit before being selected. There's some rumor that Cleveland would be interested if he falls to them, but with Frye and Anderson already on board, that seems a bit of a stretch. Granted neither Frye nor Anderson possess the potential Russell does, but Romeo Crennell is on the hot seat and I think Peterson would make more of a 1st year impact for them than either QB would.
All in all, I think this was more Johnson and Peterson confirming their status as the elite talent at their respective positions than doing much to shake up the top of the NFL draft. They both did so in an impressive fashion, however, proving how much talent differential there is between them and the rest of the players at their position. The fact is that Oakland and Detroit both need a QB of the future more than anything, Cleveland needs a great RB more than anything, and Tampa Bay needs a young WR more than anything. But I digress, as the NFL Draft always presents us with a few surprises and I don't put much stock into mock drafts whatsoever. Plus, Quinn and Russell still have more throwing drills to do in their pro days as they attempt to become the clearcut #1 QB in this draft. All 4 of these players would make at least some sense on any of the top 4 teams, with the exception of Peterson going to Tampa Bay. I suspect Quinn is the only one with a chance to tumble out of the top 4, but he has a Notre Dame pro day left to prove he belongs with the elite prospects.
Fantasy Impact: Calvin Johnson will probably make a nice WR3 investment this season, although the investment still resides on which offense he'll be playing for. Usually fantasy football players use the "3rd year theory" with WRs, but guys like Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Marques Colston prove that rookie WRs can make a profound impact on your fantasy team. Peterson will most likely be a mid-level RB2, even in Cleveland. Quinn and Russell will likely have no fantasy value their first seasons, but will be drafted high in dynasty leagues. Their order will most likely be determined by the teams they land on as well.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Aaron Brooks Released
Slow news day when this is the biggest story, huh? I mean seriously, who gives a crap about Aaron Brooks? Regardless, the Oakland Raiders released him today. He was due a $5 million dollar signing bonus that the Raiders obviously had no intention of paying. He's been pretty terrible the last two years, although I believe that masks that he can still be a decent QB. Two years ago was his worst professional season in terms of QB rating, but it was under the adverse conditions of New Orleans. That was probably the hardest situation a football team has ever endured over the course of the season, so he gets somewhat of a pass for that. Last season he played behind a horrible offensive line, with malcontent WRs (R. Moss, Porter), for a coach and offensive coordinator that had no idea how to do their jobs. He gets somewhat of a pass for that as well.
That being said, questionable mental toughness and decision making have plagued his career throughout and he's only put together one really good season in 2003 (88.8 QB rating, 24/8 TD/INT). He's still relatively young at 31 and can provide a decent backup QB option for a team in need. He's always had a nice arm and good mobility, but his mental breakdowns have prevented him from cashing in on his physical talent. This is a very strong indication that the Raiders will take Jamarcus Russell #1 overall in the 2007 draft. I presume the Raiders will shop around for a solid veteran QB this offseason to provide a tutor for Russell, if they select him. Although, much to the dismay of Raiders fans, they could have accomplished the same thing by restructuring Brooks' contract, playing him the first half of the season, and simply saying "Hey Jamarcus, see what Aaron's doing out there? Don't do that."
In other Raiders news, Jerry Porter has changed his number from #84 to #81 and claims to be refocused after last season's falling out with the Raiders coaching staff. Maybe he should change the name on the back of his jersey to "Don't Throw Here" since he probably won't be paying attention to the QB anyways. Randy Moss also reportedly told new coach Steve Sarksian over the phone that "he won't play for a 31 year old coach". I'm sure Jamarcus Russell is thrilled reading all of this.
Fantasy Impact: Lotta ifs here. Assuming this is paving the way for Russell to be the next Raiders QB, it'll be a camp battle between Andrew Walter and Russell for the starting Raiders QB position as it sits right now. As I mentioned before, the Raiders might look into the veteran QB market. Randy Moss would be a very risky WR3 in either scenario, if he's even on the team. If Moss departs, Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter will sit atop the depth chart at WR, with Doug Gabriel set to compete to start as well. If a solid veteran is signed and starts, Curry could be a nice late round sleeper. If Russell starts, all Raiders WRs become guys to monitor on the waiver wire since they won't be worth much to start. If I had to guess, LaMont Jordan's job should be safe, but the regime change might lead to a different running game philosophy (thank God for this after last season, huh Oakland?) that might or might not suit Jordan's strengths. Too many unknowns about this organzation right now.
That being said, questionable mental toughness and decision making have plagued his career throughout and he's only put together one really good season in 2003 (88.8 QB rating, 24/8 TD/INT). He's still relatively young at 31 and can provide a decent backup QB option for a team in need. He's always had a nice arm and good mobility, but his mental breakdowns have prevented him from cashing in on his physical talent. This is a very strong indication that the Raiders will take Jamarcus Russell #1 overall in the 2007 draft. I presume the Raiders will shop around for a solid veteran QB this offseason to provide a tutor for Russell, if they select him. Although, much to the dismay of Raiders fans, they could have accomplished the same thing by restructuring Brooks' contract, playing him the first half of the season, and simply saying "Hey Jamarcus, see what Aaron's doing out there? Don't do that."
In other Raiders news, Jerry Porter has changed his number from #84 to #81 and claims to be refocused after last season's falling out with the Raiders coaching staff. Maybe he should change the name on the back of his jersey to "Don't Throw Here" since he probably won't be paying attention to the QB anyways. Randy Moss also reportedly told new coach Steve Sarksian over the phone that "he won't play for a 31 year old coach". I'm sure Jamarcus Russell is thrilled reading all of this.
Fantasy Impact: Lotta ifs here. Assuming this is paving the way for Russell to be the next Raiders QB, it'll be a camp battle between Andrew Walter and Russell for the starting Raiders QB position as it sits right now. As I mentioned before, the Raiders might look into the veteran QB market. Randy Moss would be a very risky WR3 in either scenario, if he's even on the team. If Moss departs, Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter will sit atop the depth chart at WR, with Doug Gabriel set to compete to start as well. If a solid veteran is signed and starts, Curry could be a nice late round sleeper. If Russell starts, all Raiders WRs become guys to monitor on the waiver wire since they won't be worth much to start. If I had to guess, LaMont Jordan's job should be safe, but the regime change might lead to a different running game philosophy (thank God for this after last season, huh Oakland?) that might or might not suit Jordan's strengths. Too many unknowns about this organzation right now.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
My Fantasy Baseball Team, Thus Far
I'm in keeper league for fantasy baseball, and this is the 2nd year of its existance. We are a 12 team league, use 5x5 scoring in a rotisserie format, and draft each year in a snake format. Our keepers are determined by the round they were drafted in the previous year, and if they are kept in a consective year, they're assigned a 1st round value for the 1st, 2nd round value for the 2nd, etc. I finished first last year, so I drafted 12th. We draft on a message board, so we get about a round done a day. Unfortunately, one of our members had a stepfather pass away, so we're giving him 2 weeks until we start the draft up again. My best wishes go to him and his family.
So far I've compiled the following team:
C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (2nd round keeper)
2B - Howie Kendrick (drafted 7th round), Jeff Kent (drafted 11th round)
SS - Empty
3B - Hank Blalock (drafted 13th round), B.J. Upton (drafted 14th round)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper), Alex Rios (drafted 5th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (10th round keeper), Jake Peavy (drafted 3rd round), Curt Schilling (drafted 8th round), John Patterson (drafted 12th round)
RP - Joe Nathan (drafted 3rd round), Takashi Saito (drafted 10th round)
Prior to the draft, I decided to trade Vernon Wells (6th round keeper) and Chone Figgins (2nd round keeper) for Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper). This was just a straight up Wells for Soriano trade for me since I had no intention of keeping Figgins. This will be the move that defines my team, because since I already had Joe Mauer in the 6th round, I would have kept Wells in the 7th round, which is actually a 22 player difference since I pick at the end of the odd rounds. I already regret this decision, not because I don't think Soriano is a better fantasy OF than Wells (there's no question about that), but because of the value attached to the player. Soriano is not 66 players better than Wells per their keeper value, so this looks bad right now. This is my first offseason in a keeper baseball league, so it's definitely a learning lesson.
Keepers (C, 1B, OF, SP): Soriano and Teixeira are elite bats. Soriano will probably not hit much above .280, which is slightly better than a great fantasy team average over a season, so he definitely won't hurt that catagory. He should be great in runs scored, HRs, and SBs. He's not going to get 40-40 again after admitting he ran more at the end of last year to achieve that, but 30-30 seems reasonable, with 30 being on the low end for his HRs. Hitting leadoff will limit his RBI chances, but he should knock in at least 80 runs with his power. Teixeira had a horrible start to last year, but he was back in normal form in the 2nd half. .300/100/40/100 is within reach. Soriano is a bit of a value at #12 overall given he'll go top 5 in most drafts, and Teixeira at #13 is about right. Mauer is going to be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball for the next 5-10 years, and keeping him in the 6th round is great value. Webb came into his own and is a top 10 pitcher, so keeping him in the 10th round is outstanding. He'll probably suffer a slight dropoff in his ratios, but he has good infield defense behind him and pitches in a fairly weak offensive division. All in all, this gave my team a nice start heading into the draft.
2B - Given this is a keeper league, youth tends to win out over proven players at times during the draft. I was guilty of that when I selected Kendrick over Kent, but he has .300/20/20 potential, and at 2B those numbers would put him right behind Utley as the 2nd best fantasy 2B. I don't expect him to get there this year, but he should be a solid 2nd tier 2B this year with room for improvement. He's a favorite to be my keeper for next year as a 7th rounder. Jeff Kent has be falling too far in drafts this year, and I couldn't pass him up in the 11th round. That's way too far for a solid 2B to fall, especially one hitting cleanup. He was injured last year and remains a risk, but he was still very productive when healthy. Kent provides a great backup in case Kendrick flops this year, or if Kendrick fullfills potential I'll have trade bait on my hands, which is great at a position as shallow as 2B.
SS - The top 8 options (Reyes, Jeter, Tejada, H. Ramirez, Furcal, Rollins, B. Hall, M. Young) were either kept or drafted by the time I got my first pick at the end of the 3rd round, so there was no rush, but I'm regetting waiting so long to take one. Every decent one is gone now, so I'll be looking at boom/bust picks such as Johnny Peralta and Bobby Crosby now. I really wanted Stephen Drew, but I picked Kent instead. Sure enough, Drew was gone several picks later. We'll see how that pans out.
3B - The top 5 options (A-Rod, Wright, Miggy Cabrera, A-Ram, Atkins) were all kept or drafted, just like the top 8 SS, and there's a pretty solid dropoff just like SS so I waited until later on to take one. I considered Blalock, Chavez, and Encarnacion with this pick, but I like Blalock the best. Chavez disappoints every year and will never be the offensive stud he was projected to be, plus he seems to be slightly injury prone to boot. Encarnacion is an exciting prospect, but his defense seems to be a distraction and I dunno where he stands in the organization right now. Blalock's star has faded the last two years, but he seems to have re-dedicated himself under the eye of Ron Washington and seems to be focused again this year. I like his chances to bounce back offensively, with the potential of doing such in a big way. I had him last year when he turned in his worst professional season, but this is a case of where fantasy owners MUST have a short memory and not boycott players because they failed them once.
OF - I probably should have gone Thome with my 5th round pick, but again age got the best of me and I went with Alex Rios instead. I considered Matsui as well, but wrist injuries are troublesome for hitters and often adversely affect their power. Rios broke out in a big way last year until a staph infection killed his season. He'll be out to prove last year was not a fluke, and while he won't post the RBI numbers that Matsui will, he'll be pretty close to 15 steals while staying close to him in all other catagories. I really wanted Markakis as my 3rd OF, but he was drafted a few players ahead of where I wanted to take him. I have a hole left in my OF, and I plan to load up on a few younger talents like Hermida and Chris B. Young and hope one of them breaks out.
SP - I'm very strong here. Peavy represents huge upside for where he's falling in drafts this year, and while his shoulder comes with risk, his ERA last year was way out of whack with his career numbers and his peripherals last year. He has a chance to be a dominant ace again this year, and with the consistent Webb leading my staff, I can afford to find out. Schilling is a great #3 who should be motivated this year for one last contract run as his current deal expires at the end of the year. His ERA won't be much under 4, but his K rate and WHIP remain strong, plus he pitches for a team that will win a lot of ballgames. John Patterson could be one of the steals this year. He doesn't have the upside that Peavy does, but he pitches in a great pitcher's ballpark and is only one season removed from a 3.13 ERA. Wins will be a problem, but he's another big K pitcher who maintains a solid WHIP as well. If he's healthy, he'll turn in a great year. I have 2 sure things and 2 risks with a ton of upside here.
RP - I'm not a big fan of drafting closers up high, especially since so many quality options start the year on the waiver wire each season, but no player stood out to me like Nathan did. The closer run in our draft had just started, and I miraculously landed arguably the best closer as the 4th one taken. Given I had 22 picks left til my next selection, and with keepers included over 60 players were gone, it wasn't a bad choice. Saito is a good 2nd option. If he repeats last year, he'll be a top closer all year long. He has pretty good job security, and he actually has good stuff unlike most Japanese pitchers who rely more on deception. I plan on taking Broxton later who would close if Saito disappoints, and who is also a great RP in a roto league since he has an a elite K-rate along with low ratios. I prefer taking two closers to start the year, drafting 2 elite setup men later on, and then plucking a 3rd closer off the waiver wire once the season starts.
I need to add an additional starter or two, a SS, and some OF help when the draft starts back up. We'll see how it turns out!
So far I've compiled the following team:
C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (2nd round keeper)
2B - Howie Kendrick (drafted 7th round), Jeff Kent (drafted 11th round)
SS - Empty
3B - Hank Blalock (drafted 13th round), B.J. Upton (drafted 14th round)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper), Alex Rios (drafted 5th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (10th round keeper), Jake Peavy (drafted 3rd round), Curt Schilling (drafted 8th round), John Patterson (drafted 12th round)
RP - Joe Nathan (drafted 3rd round), Takashi Saito (drafted 10th round)
Prior to the draft, I decided to trade Vernon Wells (6th round keeper) and Chone Figgins (2nd round keeper) for Alfonso Soriano (1st round keeper). This was just a straight up Wells for Soriano trade for me since I had no intention of keeping Figgins. This will be the move that defines my team, because since I already had Joe Mauer in the 6th round, I would have kept Wells in the 7th round, which is actually a 22 player difference since I pick at the end of the odd rounds. I already regret this decision, not because I don't think Soriano is a better fantasy OF than Wells (there's no question about that), but because of the value attached to the player. Soriano is not 66 players better than Wells per their keeper value, so this looks bad right now. This is my first offseason in a keeper baseball league, so it's definitely a learning lesson.
Keepers (C, 1B, OF, SP): Soriano and Teixeira are elite bats. Soriano will probably not hit much above .280, which is slightly better than a great fantasy team average over a season, so he definitely won't hurt that catagory. He should be great in runs scored, HRs, and SBs. He's not going to get 40-40 again after admitting he ran more at the end of last year to achieve that, but 30-30 seems reasonable, with 30 being on the low end for his HRs. Hitting leadoff will limit his RBI chances, but he should knock in at least 80 runs with his power. Teixeira had a horrible start to last year, but he was back in normal form in the 2nd half. .300/100/40/100 is within reach. Soriano is a bit of a value at #12 overall given he'll go top 5 in most drafts, and Teixeira at #13 is about right. Mauer is going to be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball for the next 5-10 years, and keeping him in the 6th round is great value. Webb came into his own and is a top 10 pitcher, so keeping him in the 10th round is outstanding. He'll probably suffer a slight dropoff in his ratios, but he has good infield defense behind him and pitches in a fairly weak offensive division. All in all, this gave my team a nice start heading into the draft.
2B - Given this is a keeper league, youth tends to win out over proven players at times during the draft. I was guilty of that when I selected Kendrick over Kent, but he has .300/20/20 potential, and at 2B those numbers would put him right behind Utley as the 2nd best fantasy 2B. I don't expect him to get there this year, but he should be a solid 2nd tier 2B this year with room for improvement. He's a favorite to be my keeper for next year as a 7th rounder. Jeff Kent has be falling too far in drafts this year, and I couldn't pass him up in the 11th round. That's way too far for a solid 2B to fall, especially one hitting cleanup. He was injured last year and remains a risk, but he was still very productive when healthy. Kent provides a great backup in case Kendrick flops this year, or if Kendrick fullfills potential I'll have trade bait on my hands, which is great at a position as shallow as 2B.
SS - The top 8 options (Reyes, Jeter, Tejada, H. Ramirez, Furcal, Rollins, B. Hall, M. Young) were either kept or drafted by the time I got my first pick at the end of the 3rd round, so there was no rush, but I'm regetting waiting so long to take one. Every decent one is gone now, so I'll be looking at boom/bust picks such as Johnny Peralta and Bobby Crosby now. I really wanted Stephen Drew, but I picked Kent instead. Sure enough, Drew was gone several picks later. We'll see how that pans out.
3B - The top 5 options (A-Rod, Wright, Miggy Cabrera, A-Ram, Atkins) were all kept or drafted, just like the top 8 SS, and there's a pretty solid dropoff just like SS so I waited until later on to take one. I considered Blalock, Chavez, and Encarnacion with this pick, but I like Blalock the best. Chavez disappoints every year and will never be the offensive stud he was projected to be, plus he seems to be slightly injury prone to boot. Encarnacion is an exciting prospect, but his defense seems to be a distraction and I dunno where he stands in the organization right now. Blalock's star has faded the last two years, but he seems to have re-dedicated himself under the eye of Ron Washington and seems to be focused again this year. I like his chances to bounce back offensively, with the potential of doing such in a big way. I had him last year when he turned in his worst professional season, but this is a case of where fantasy owners MUST have a short memory and not boycott players because they failed them once.
OF - I probably should have gone Thome with my 5th round pick, but again age got the best of me and I went with Alex Rios instead. I considered Matsui as well, but wrist injuries are troublesome for hitters and often adversely affect their power. Rios broke out in a big way last year until a staph infection killed his season. He'll be out to prove last year was not a fluke, and while he won't post the RBI numbers that Matsui will, he'll be pretty close to 15 steals while staying close to him in all other catagories. I really wanted Markakis as my 3rd OF, but he was drafted a few players ahead of where I wanted to take him. I have a hole left in my OF, and I plan to load up on a few younger talents like Hermida and Chris B. Young and hope one of them breaks out.
SP - I'm very strong here. Peavy represents huge upside for where he's falling in drafts this year, and while his shoulder comes with risk, his ERA last year was way out of whack with his career numbers and his peripherals last year. He has a chance to be a dominant ace again this year, and with the consistent Webb leading my staff, I can afford to find out. Schilling is a great #3 who should be motivated this year for one last contract run as his current deal expires at the end of the year. His ERA won't be much under 4, but his K rate and WHIP remain strong, plus he pitches for a team that will win a lot of ballgames. John Patterson could be one of the steals this year. He doesn't have the upside that Peavy does, but he pitches in a great pitcher's ballpark and is only one season removed from a 3.13 ERA. Wins will be a problem, but he's another big K pitcher who maintains a solid WHIP as well. If he's healthy, he'll turn in a great year. I have 2 sure things and 2 risks with a ton of upside here.
RP - I'm not a big fan of drafting closers up high, especially since so many quality options start the year on the waiver wire each season, but no player stood out to me like Nathan did. The closer run in our draft had just started, and I miraculously landed arguably the best closer as the 4th one taken. Given I had 22 picks left til my next selection, and with keepers included over 60 players were gone, it wasn't a bad choice. Saito is a good 2nd option. If he repeats last year, he'll be a top closer all year long. He has pretty good job security, and he actually has good stuff unlike most Japanese pitchers who rely more on deception. I plan on taking Broxton later who would close if Saito disappoints, and who is also a great RP in a roto league since he has an a elite K-rate along with low ratios. I prefer taking two closers to start the year, drafting 2 elite setup men later on, and then plucking a 3rd closer off the waiver wire once the season starts.
I need to add an additional starter or two, a SS, and some OF help when the draft starts back up. We'll see how it turns out!
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Chargers Hire Norv Turner
The Martyball era of the San Diego Chargers is now over, and Schottenheimer has officially been replaced by Norv Turner. Turner has been a head coach twice before, amassing a 58-82-1 record between the Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders. He hasn't had a team as talented as the Chargers before, though. The main knock on him in the past was the lack of discipline his teams have had. However, he is a great offensive mind who engineered the dynamic Cowboys offense in the 90s, helped an Oakland offense overachieve in the 2005 season, and then he stopped by in San Francisco last year and helped turn around their offense in just the one season he was there.
He made a great defensive coordinator hire in Ted Cotrell, who is a 3-4 guru and will help maintain continuity in the talented SD defense. Their front 7 is as good as anyone in the NFL, although their secondary needs a bit of help and some additional talent. Turner also kept their new offensive coordinator Clarence Shelmon, the old RB coach. Shelmon will have a great tutor as Turner will control the offense.
The pieces are in place, both in positional talent and solid offensive and defensive minds, for the Chargers to take that next leap from playoff team to SB contender. It remains to be seen if Turner is the one to bring it all together and do what Schottenheimer couldn't for this underachieving team.
Fantasy Impact: This is great news for the Chargers offensive players. As mentioned before, Turner has been in charge of some good offenses in the past, and I expect him to help mold Phillip Rivers into a top notch NFL QB. Turner has also always engineered a powerful running game, so Tomlinson and Michael Turner, if the Burner stays with SD, should continue piling up great numbers. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits of the continued improvement of Rivers. Rivers should provide solid value as a QB1 drafted after the big names are gone, Tomlinson will remain the unquestioned #1 RB on draft boards next year, Gates should re-emerge as the unquestioned #1 TE, and Vincent Jackson is shaping up to be a nice sleeper to grab later in the draft as a WR3.
This isn't such great news for the 49ers offensive players. Alex Smith started to show promise last year, and Turner did what he could in the passing game with an undertalented bunch. Their only truly talented WR, Antonio Bryant, didn't help things either with his continued erratic behavior. Alex Smith was looking like a great QB2 to target, but I believe the offensive improvement will be stalled in a varying degree depending on who the 49ers hire to succede Turner. Their WR coach, Jerry Sullivan, is expected to be the top candidate right now and would help maintain continuity in their offensive system. It'd be a huge step back if they tried to alter their system yet again after showing major progress last year, but indications are that they won't do that. Their offensive line is mostly young and talented, save Larry Allen, who's still productive when healthy. That being said, I do expect Gore to regress from last year, but he's still safely within the top 10 RBs. He's a bowling ball with breakaway speed, proving he hasn't lost much of a step after multiple knee surgeries in college. Alex Smith drops down the QB2 list, but is still someone to consider with a lower QB1 ceiling. I have a feeling Frank Gore won't live up to his draft status if he remains in the top 5, but since it's possible he'll end up there again with the lack of elite RB options, he's worth considering after LT/LJ/SJax are off the board. Bryant isn't anything more than a WR4 with his inconsistent play and behavior, and Vernon Davis' star is dulled a bit, but he is still a breakout candidate after the bigger TE names are off the board and should be a lower TE1 next season at worst.
He made a great defensive coordinator hire in Ted Cotrell, who is a 3-4 guru and will help maintain continuity in the talented SD defense. Their front 7 is as good as anyone in the NFL, although their secondary needs a bit of help and some additional talent. Turner also kept their new offensive coordinator Clarence Shelmon, the old RB coach. Shelmon will have a great tutor as Turner will control the offense.
The pieces are in place, both in positional talent and solid offensive and defensive minds, for the Chargers to take that next leap from playoff team to SB contender. It remains to be seen if Turner is the one to bring it all together and do what Schottenheimer couldn't for this underachieving team.
Fantasy Impact: This is great news for the Chargers offensive players. As mentioned before, Turner has been in charge of some good offenses in the past, and I expect him to help mold Phillip Rivers into a top notch NFL QB. Turner has also always engineered a powerful running game, so Tomlinson and Michael Turner, if the Burner stays with SD, should continue piling up great numbers. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits of the continued improvement of Rivers. Rivers should provide solid value as a QB1 drafted after the big names are gone, Tomlinson will remain the unquestioned #1 RB on draft boards next year, Gates should re-emerge as the unquestioned #1 TE, and Vincent Jackson is shaping up to be a nice sleeper to grab later in the draft as a WR3.
This isn't such great news for the 49ers offensive players. Alex Smith started to show promise last year, and Turner did what he could in the passing game with an undertalented bunch. Their only truly talented WR, Antonio Bryant, didn't help things either with his continued erratic behavior. Alex Smith was looking like a great QB2 to target, but I believe the offensive improvement will be stalled in a varying degree depending on who the 49ers hire to succede Turner. Their WR coach, Jerry Sullivan, is expected to be the top candidate right now and would help maintain continuity in their offensive system. It'd be a huge step back if they tried to alter their system yet again after showing major progress last year, but indications are that they won't do that. Their offensive line is mostly young and talented, save Larry Allen, who's still productive when healthy. That being said, I do expect Gore to regress from last year, but he's still safely within the top 10 RBs. He's a bowling ball with breakaway speed, proving he hasn't lost much of a step after multiple knee surgeries in college. Alex Smith drops down the QB2 list, but is still someone to consider with a lower QB1 ceiling. I have a feeling Frank Gore won't live up to his draft status if he remains in the top 5, but since it's possible he'll end up there again with the lack of elite RB options, he's worth considering after LT/LJ/SJax are off the board. Bryant isn't anything more than a WR4 with his inconsistent play and behavior, and Vernon Davis' star is dulled a bit, but he is still a breakout candidate after the bigger TE names are off the board and should be a lower TE1 next season at worst.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Marty Schottenheimer Fired
Surprised? I am, to a point. It's been noted for several years that Schottenheimer and Chargers' GM AJ Smith have had their problems getting along. However, when the Chargers extended his deal by one year, it seemed like they were willing to give him one last shot with a very talented team. Schottenheimer has had a long history of teams coming up short, and this season was no different with the 14-2 team clicking on all cylinders failing to win their first game in the playoffs.
It turns out that the rift grew bigger between Schottenheimer and Smith with the departure of the coordinators. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron left to become the head coach of the Dolphins, and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips left to become the head coach of the Cowboys. They were likely at odds over which coordinators they would hire, and logic indicates that Smith didn't want to deal with the headache anymore and decided to start fresh.
They have a franchise RB in Tomlinson, a great young QB in Rivers, talented receivers in Jackson and Gates, and a great offensive line. They also boast a very talented defensive unit that should return almost all of their starters, and even with MLB Donnie Edwards set to move on, they've developed two great backups in Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm that will be ready to take over. Whoever takes this job will inherit a playoff-ready team that needs to get over the hump and capitalize on all their talent. They'll no doubt look for someone on the offensive side of the ball who can continue Phillip Rivers' ascension to the top QBs of the league, and they'll look for someone on the defensive side of the ball who has experience running a 3-4 scheme.
Pete Carroll has been mentioned as a candidate, and he'd offer up a good offensive mind that would bode well for both Tomlinson and Rivers. They'd likely have to find a defensive coordinator who can run the show himself at that point as Carroll has more of a history of explosive offenses, at least in the college ranks, than he does stout defenses.
It turns out that the rift grew bigger between Schottenheimer and Smith with the departure of the coordinators. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron left to become the head coach of the Dolphins, and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips left to become the head coach of the Cowboys. They were likely at odds over which coordinators they would hire, and logic indicates that Smith didn't want to deal with the headache anymore and decided to start fresh.
They have a franchise RB in Tomlinson, a great young QB in Rivers, talented receivers in Jackson and Gates, and a great offensive line. They also boast a very talented defensive unit that should return almost all of their starters, and even with MLB Donnie Edwards set to move on, they've developed two great backups in Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm that will be ready to take over. Whoever takes this job will inherit a playoff-ready team that needs to get over the hump and capitalize on all their talent. They'll no doubt look for someone on the offensive side of the ball who can continue Phillip Rivers' ascension to the top QBs of the league, and they'll look for someone on the defensive side of the ball who has experience running a 3-4 scheme.
Pete Carroll has been mentioned as a candidate, and he'd offer up a good offensive mind that would bode well for both Tomlinson and Rivers. They'd likely have to find a defensive coordinator who can run the show himself at that point as Carroll has more of a history of explosive offenses, at least in the college ranks, than he does stout defenses.
Monday, February 5, 2007
Super Bowl Recap
Well, my beloved Bears missed out on their chance for a 2nd Super Bowl title. The Colts employed a great gameplan of running the ball to take advantage of the 2 deep (way deep) scheme that the Bears defense was using against Manning. With the exception of the first drive when Manning was intercepted by Chris Harris, Manning took what the defense gave him, often utilizing the running game up the middle which gashed a safety-less run defensive scheme. Hats off to the Colts coaches and Manning for managing the game like they did. It's amazing the offensive identity makeover that the Colts had in the playoffs...they ran the ball and played defense, which is what championship teams do well.
It would have been really nice had the Bears defense been at full strength. With the Bears advancing to the Super Bowl, the fact their defense was without both Tommie Harris and Mike Brown was often overlooked, and their importance forgotten. Tommie Harris helps make the Bears' front four what it is, a gap controlled defensive line that can generate a great pass rush without the aid of blitzers. This is essential to a cover 2 scheme...the front four must generate a quality pass rush to force the quarterback to make quick decisions against the aggresive zone defense. Without that pass rush, any pro QB will be able to pick apart a zone defense and find the holes. Harris is one of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the game, and the pass rush hasn't been the same without him. In the secondary, Mike Brown is a physical presence at safety who has great awareness and completely changes the face of the Bears run defense. His range allows him to both help stuff the run and drop back deep to cover the WRs. His replacement, Chris Harris, is more suited to stopping the run and has shown a deficiency in covering the pass. Harris is only a 2nd year player, and his safety-mate Danieal Manning was a rookie. Their inexperience led to them being out of place several times, most notably when Reggie Wayne busted wide open for his TD catch. D. Manning decided to cover the TE short over the middle than follow Wayne deep, and any player who fails at his assignment in a zone defense will leave someone wide open. Harris couldn't play as close to the line as Brown can due to his lack of range, and that allowed the Colts to run right at the Bears without that safety help.
The turning point, in my mind, was the terrible play calling on 2nd and 1 in the 2nd quarter. While 2nd and 1 is the best playaction down in football and leads to many big pass plays, one must take into account the game situation. The Bears were winning and running the ball well. I understand that Lovie wanted to generate a big play to get Grossman some confidence and light a spark into the offense, but when the goal is ball control against a dynamic offense like the Colts, going for a big play when leading is a bad idea. Use Jones and run over the Colts defense, keep moving the chains, and allow the defense to rest. Instead, Lovie opted to call a playaction pass which lead to blown blocking assignment and an 11 yard sack. The Bears then punted and Indy drove down and scored against a defense that was given little rest.
Finally, the Rex Grossman criticism needs a limit. I can't believe all the criticism heaped upon him on a weekly basis. Rex Grossman cannot be compared to 3rd and 4th year QBs. This was his first full season in which he wasn't hindered by injuries, and he had a pretty solid season. His bipolarism from game to game is bad, but he's still learning the position and managed 2 pretty solid performances in the playoffs until having a bad game last night. He obviously needs to work on his decision making and ball security, but that can be improved if he dedicates himself this offseason to working on that. He's spent a lot of the past two seasons not practicing and learning the offense, but instead rehabbing a torn ACL and a broken ankle. That's not time in which he's progressing as a football player, it's time focused on rehabbing injuries. He's not spending that time learning the offense, getting reps in practice, and working on his timing with his receivers. He's actually regressing because instead of learning the QB position, he's working on getting healthy. Therefore, his situation is not like Phillip Rivers, for example, who spent all of the past 2 years studying the offense and practicing before getting his shot on the field. Grossman spent his first season learning a completely different offense, then the Bears changed coaches and he had to learn another offense. He then tore his ACL, and spent a year rehabbing. After coming back from that, he spent some time learning the new offense before breaking his ankle and missing most of last season as well.
Give him time, Bears fans. I know it's a lot to ask with some of the disasterous performances he's had this year, especially last night, but he's still quite young and is behind the learning curve for a QB his age. He obviously has potential and has room to grow. Hopefully he'll spend this offseason working on his flaws, and Bears fans will see a more mature Rex Grossman on the field next season.
It would have been really nice had the Bears defense been at full strength. With the Bears advancing to the Super Bowl, the fact their defense was without both Tommie Harris and Mike Brown was often overlooked, and their importance forgotten. Tommie Harris helps make the Bears' front four what it is, a gap controlled defensive line that can generate a great pass rush without the aid of blitzers. This is essential to a cover 2 scheme...the front four must generate a quality pass rush to force the quarterback to make quick decisions against the aggresive zone defense. Without that pass rush, any pro QB will be able to pick apart a zone defense and find the holes. Harris is one of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the game, and the pass rush hasn't been the same without him. In the secondary, Mike Brown is a physical presence at safety who has great awareness and completely changes the face of the Bears run defense. His range allows him to both help stuff the run and drop back deep to cover the WRs. His replacement, Chris Harris, is more suited to stopping the run and has shown a deficiency in covering the pass. Harris is only a 2nd year player, and his safety-mate Danieal Manning was a rookie. Their inexperience led to them being out of place several times, most notably when Reggie Wayne busted wide open for his TD catch. D. Manning decided to cover the TE short over the middle than follow Wayne deep, and any player who fails at his assignment in a zone defense will leave someone wide open. Harris couldn't play as close to the line as Brown can due to his lack of range, and that allowed the Colts to run right at the Bears without that safety help.
The turning point, in my mind, was the terrible play calling on 2nd and 1 in the 2nd quarter. While 2nd and 1 is the best playaction down in football and leads to many big pass plays, one must take into account the game situation. The Bears were winning and running the ball well. I understand that Lovie wanted to generate a big play to get Grossman some confidence and light a spark into the offense, but when the goal is ball control against a dynamic offense like the Colts, going for a big play when leading is a bad idea. Use Jones and run over the Colts defense, keep moving the chains, and allow the defense to rest. Instead, Lovie opted to call a playaction pass which lead to blown blocking assignment and an 11 yard sack. The Bears then punted and Indy drove down and scored against a defense that was given little rest.
Finally, the Rex Grossman criticism needs a limit. I can't believe all the criticism heaped upon him on a weekly basis. Rex Grossman cannot be compared to 3rd and 4th year QBs. This was his first full season in which he wasn't hindered by injuries, and he had a pretty solid season. His bipolarism from game to game is bad, but he's still learning the position and managed 2 pretty solid performances in the playoffs until having a bad game last night. He obviously needs to work on his decision making and ball security, but that can be improved if he dedicates himself this offseason to working on that. He's spent a lot of the past two seasons not practicing and learning the offense, but instead rehabbing a torn ACL and a broken ankle. That's not time in which he's progressing as a football player, it's time focused on rehabbing injuries. He's not spending that time learning the offense, getting reps in practice, and working on his timing with his receivers. He's actually regressing because instead of learning the QB position, he's working on getting healthy. Therefore, his situation is not like Phillip Rivers, for example, who spent all of the past 2 years studying the offense and practicing before getting his shot on the field. Grossman spent his first season learning a completely different offense, then the Bears changed coaches and he had to learn another offense. He then tore his ACL, and spent a year rehabbing. After coming back from that, he spent some time learning the new offense before breaking his ankle and missing most of last season as well.
Give him time, Bears fans. I know it's a lot to ask with some of the disasterous performances he's had this year, especially last night, but he's still quite young and is behind the learning curve for a QB his age. He obviously has potential and has room to grow. Hopefully he'll spend this offseason working on his flaws, and Bears fans will see a more mature Rex Grossman on the field next season.
Monday, January 29, 2007
Super Bowl Layoff
The NFL has been slow this past week as the media has focused on every single angle between the Bears and the Colts, and then looked at and reported on them 10 more times. The extra week off between the AFC/NFC Championship games and the Super Bowl is mostly for the media to build up the hype machine that is the Super Bowl to new levels of annoyance. Having the media focus on two teams for 2 weeks straight is to the point of nauseating, and the fans don't really like having a week of no football, especially when it's filled with worthless stories about nothing. I can't remember exactly when the NFL decided to add the extra week in there, but they really need to go back to not having it.
Peyton Manning did bring up a good point regarding this situation, stating that he appreciated the extra study time. Given the Super Bowl often matches teams that haven't played in the current season, or perhaps as many as 3 years ago, the players and coaching staffs probably enjoy the extra time to prepare for an unknown opponent. However, they often face several opponents a season that fall into this catagory, so it's not like it's a reaction to some once-a-season thing.
The layoff is purely there for the media, and it needs to be revoked. It does nothing for the fans, and some may argue it annoys them more than anything. Considering these sporting events are "supposed" to be for the fans, I'd like to see them start taking steps to actually implement things to bring the games back to the fans. Eliminating the Super Bowl layoff would be a small, but positive start in that process.
Peyton Manning did bring up a good point regarding this situation, stating that he appreciated the extra study time. Given the Super Bowl often matches teams that haven't played in the current season, or perhaps as many as 3 years ago, the players and coaching staffs probably enjoy the extra time to prepare for an unknown opponent. However, they often face several opponents a season that fall into this catagory, so it's not like it's a reaction to some once-a-season thing.
The layoff is purely there for the media, and it needs to be revoked. It does nothing for the fans, and some may argue it annoys them more than anything. Considering these sporting events are "supposed" to be for the fans, I'd like to see them start taking steps to actually implement things to bring the games back to the fans. Eliminating the Super Bowl layoff would be a small, but positive start in that process.
Monday, January 22, 2007
Bill Parcells Resigns
The Big Tuna has decided to call it quits. He leaves behind a rebuilt franchise with a re-energzied fanbase, a talented young QB, 2 solid RBs, and a solid defense. His legacy doesn't have to be repeated, building 4 teams (Giants, Jets, Patriots, Cowboys) into playoff contenders and winning 2 Super Bowls. He did a solid job with the Cowboys and could have advanced farther into the playoffs barring a blown FG hold by Tony Romo. It's a shame that's how his last season ended, but it certainly doesn't tarnish yet another quality rebuilding job, taking a defeated Cowboys franchise into a team on the rise.
One has to wonder if Terrell Owens helped facilitate this decision given his presence has admittedly worn on the team during the season, and it's really best for that franchise to cut ties with him and look to addressing their WR issues via the draft and free agency. Stallworth and Bennett are the best pending free agents at the WR position, but unfortunately both come with a lengthy past of injury problems. Adding them to Terry Glenn, not without his own injury concerns, would be a risky maneuver. Their best bet might be adding a second tier free agent, continuing to develop Patrick Crayton, and then adding their future #1 via the draft.
Unfortunately the timing of Parcells' decision will negatively impact the Cowboys coaching situation as all other teams with coaching vacancies are much further into their coaching search, and some potential candidates that the Cowboys might have been interested in have already been hired. One name that's surfacing is Norv Turner, who has a history with the Cowboys as being the coach who helped mold Aikman's career. He's someone who has a previous history with Jerry Jones and he's seemingly the popular "rumor" favorite for the job. Given his history with Aikman, he'd make a nice choice to help mold Romo's career as an encore. Whoever takes over the team will inherit Parcells' last rebuilding job, although we've heard him say this 3 times before.
Fantasy Impact: More will be known about the fantasy impact of this decision when a new coach is hired. Romo will remain the unquestioned starting QB and could provide a nice value as a QB1 taken after the big names are off the board. He provides a small boost with his legs, adding some rushing yards to his stat totals. His value is more tied to Owens' status as Owens emerged as his primary target. Despite the bad that Owens brings, he without question lifts the fantasy value of the QB throwing to him as he produces on the field, especially in the redzone. The most likely RB scenario is a full blown competition for the starting RB spot between Julius Jones and Marion Barber. If Turner is hired, he's well known for his power rushing attack and Barber would be the clear favorite to dominate the carries. Owens is probably more likely to stay with the Cowboys given Parcells has left as he mentioned several times that one or the other would not be there this coming year. Glenn should maintain a solid WR 3/4 value assuming he overcomes the knee injury he battled this season. Witten should also maintain his status as a low end TE1.
One has to wonder if Terrell Owens helped facilitate this decision given his presence has admittedly worn on the team during the season, and it's really best for that franchise to cut ties with him and look to addressing their WR issues via the draft and free agency. Stallworth and Bennett are the best pending free agents at the WR position, but unfortunately both come with a lengthy past of injury problems. Adding them to Terry Glenn, not without his own injury concerns, would be a risky maneuver. Their best bet might be adding a second tier free agent, continuing to develop Patrick Crayton, and then adding their future #1 via the draft.
Unfortunately the timing of Parcells' decision will negatively impact the Cowboys coaching situation as all other teams with coaching vacancies are much further into their coaching search, and some potential candidates that the Cowboys might have been interested in have already been hired. One name that's surfacing is Norv Turner, who has a history with the Cowboys as being the coach who helped mold Aikman's career. He's someone who has a previous history with Jerry Jones and he's seemingly the popular "rumor" favorite for the job. Given his history with Aikman, he'd make a nice choice to help mold Romo's career as an encore. Whoever takes over the team will inherit Parcells' last rebuilding job, although we've heard him say this 3 times before.
Fantasy Impact: More will be known about the fantasy impact of this decision when a new coach is hired. Romo will remain the unquestioned starting QB and could provide a nice value as a QB1 taken after the big names are off the board. He provides a small boost with his legs, adding some rushing yards to his stat totals. His value is more tied to Owens' status as Owens emerged as his primary target. Despite the bad that Owens brings, he without question lifts the fantasy value of the QB throwing to him as he produces on the field, especially in the redzone. The most likely RB scenario is a full blown competition for the starting RB spot between Julius Jones and Marion Barber. If Turner is hired, he's well known for his power rushing attack and Barber would be the clear favorite to dominate the carries. Owens is probably more likely to stay with the Cowboys given Parcells has left as he mentioned several times that one or the other would not be there this coming year. Glenn should maintain a solid WR 3/4 value assuming he overcomes the knee injury he battled this season. Witten should also maintain his status as a low end TE1.
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