Denver vs. Buffalo
Jay Cutler - 23/39, 304 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4/18. Cutler put together a great 2007 debut as he moved the offense effectively against Buffalo for most of the game. The only problem was the 5 FG attempts versus 1 TD as they often stalled as they got close. Still, he showed excellent chemistry with Javon Walker, which bodes well for the season.
J.P. Losman - 12/21, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2/13. With Champ Bailey hounding Lee Evans all day, the lack of WR depth for the Bills proved to be a large problem. Considering how stout the cornerbacks are for Denver, I'm willing to give him a pass, especially given how strong he closed the 2006 season. Still, it's a concern against defenses with a shutdown corner moving forward.
Travis Henry - 23/139, 3/44. Bigtime yardage numbers as they hype about Henry proved real. They often stalled near the redzone which prevented Henry from scoring, but given how well the offense moved the ball, he'll be scoring plenty soon enough.
Marshawn Lynch - 19/90, 1 TD, 2/9. Lynch had an excellent debut versus a very good Denver defense. Hopefully he'll start to get more involved in the passing game going forward so that Losman has a reliable safety valve, and his skills definite support such growth.
Javon Walker - 9/119. Great first game for Walker who didn't have much of a chemistry with Jay Cutler last season, but proved his doubters wrong with a great first game. He'll remain both the primary target and the primary deep threat, and should come close to posting WR1 numbers all year long.
Brandon Marshall - 5/52, 1 TD. Marshall showed off his redzone skills with a great catch near th sidelines for the only Denver TD of the game. He was a popular sleeper heading into the season as a WR5, and he could prove to have WR3 upside depending on how much Shanahan wants Cutler to throw the ball. He should be a solid bye-week fill-in at worst this season.
Lee Evans - 2/5. As mentioned before, this was Champ Bailey's doing. Evans was drafted as a WR2, and I was high on him heading into the season until reading about how brutal his schedule is to start the season as he faces. Up next is Pittsburgh with their aggressive blitzing and then Asante Samuel, so Evans might become a great buy-low after 3 weeks.
Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
Ben Roethlisberger - 12/23, 161, 4 TD, 0 INT, 1/2. A great start of the season for my favorite fantasy QB heading into the season. He wasn't the most accurate and didn't throw for a lot of yards, but he had great protection and had 2 scoring strikes of 20+ yards along with a couple 5 yard TD passes. The short TD passes are of not here as Pittsburgh is traditionally a smashmouth team on the ground, and this indicates the change of guard with new coordinator Bruce Arians. Big Ben will become even more efficient as he continues to learn the new offense.
Browns QB Situation - Frye was pulled due to complete ineptitude, but Anderson wasn't much better after he took over. Brady Quinn will be starting sooner than later, and owners of both Edwards and Winslow can only pray that it's as soon as week 2.
Willie Parker - 27/109, 1/-2, 1 FL. Great yardage totals, but he didn't convert on his chances inside the 10, and Pittsburgh threw twice from the 5 yard line. His TD totals might drop a bit because of Pittsburgh's new scheme, but Pittsburgh will continue to use him plenty as long as his fumbling doesn't become a consistent problem. I imagine he'll be passed to more often as the season moves along as well.
Jamal Lewis - 11/35. Pittsburgh didn't give him any room and got up big early, but don't let that sway you from the fact that Jamal Lewis sucks. They even threw playaction from the 1 yard line.
Hines Ward - 3/51, 1 TD. Workman like game from Ward, and expect him to post better yardage totals as the season progresses and Pittsburgh throws more often when they aren't leading by 200. He's a good WR2.
Santonio Holmes - 2/55, 1 TD. Another preseason sleeper favorite who posted a solid first game. He'll be a bit inconsistent as Pittsburgh's secondary option and primary deep threat, but he'll probably post at least one big play each game. He's a good WR3.
Heath Miller - 4/35, 1 TD. Pick him up if he's still out there. He was incredibly under-utilized since being drafted, but he has great receiving skills and will likely break out this season. He'll be a borderline starter.
Braylon Edwards - 3/49. His QBs are a joke. He's a borderline WR3 while Frye and Anderson exchange poor performances, but he'll become a much better option once Quinn takes over.
Kellen Winslow - 4/83. What a great performance coming off microfracture surgery. Winslow produces regardless of who is under center, and he is a great TE1. Perhaps he is a soldier afterall?
Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Donovan McNabb - 15/33, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4/9. Green Bay was in his face all game long, and he looked a bit rusty to boot. As I mentioned in my pre-season QB summary, it might take McNabb a bit to get adjusted, but he'll be fine soon enough. The thing to note here is how good GB's defense is, and to watch their performance over the next few weeks to see if they're ready to join the great NFL defenses this season. They have a ton of talent.
Brett Favre - 23/42, 206 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Favre should be a solid fantasy backup this season, but he's going to be erratic. He's best owned when your starter has a bye week the same week that Favre has an advantageous matchup. His history versus Philly wasn't good, and he struggled once again. It'll take a bit for him to get used to all the youngsters that surround him.
Brian Westbrook - 20/85, 6/46. Westbrook had yet another great yardage game. McNabb's ineffectiveness prevented Westbrook from having a strong chance of scoring, but he'll get more chances once McNabb re-acclimates himself.
Brandon Jackson - 15/40, 4/35. Philly was brutal against the run last season, but re-loaded their LB corps and did a good job here. The GB line projects to be pretty solid, but I'm not sold on Jackson's skills. He's a RB3 if for nothing else other than his workload, but he's going to have to show more than this over the next few weeks.
Reggie Brown - 1/14. A victim of poor QB play and a tough GB secondary. I expect much better results moving forward.
Kevin Curtis - 2/53. He made a couple big plays and makes for a solid WR3. He'll get more consistent as McNabb finds his game.
Donald Driver - 6/66. He'll continue to rack up the catches as Favre's clear go-to guy this season. He looks recovered from his preseason foot injury and should be a good WR2 this season. Expecting a repeat of last year's top 5 finish would be foolish, however.
Kansas City vs. Houston
Damon Huard - 22/33, 168 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 1/0. He just doesn't have much to work with at the WR position, and Tony Gonzalez might be asked to block more often depending on how the line holds up this season. Not only that, but Brodie Croyle will probably take his job after KC gets off to an inevitable slow start. There's no upside to owning him in 1 QB leagues.
Matt Schaub - 16/22, 225, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1/-1. Schaub showed up exactly as advertised, showing solid pocket presence and a strong arm. He remains a solid QB2, but the lack of an established secondary threat across from Andre Johnson limits his upside. Look to Phillip Rivers' progression last year as Schaub's potential this season.
Larry Johnson - 10/43, 7/44. He was saved in PPR league scoring, but very mediocre in standard scoring. LJ is going to be the victim of a poor offense, but expect more carries moving forward since KC simply doesn't have anything else. He's likely close to 100% game shape now.
Ahman Green - 16/73, 4/23. Green should remain a solid RB3 this season. Owners might be annoyed at only 16 carries in a win, but given Green's injury history and propensity to wear down as the season progresses, along with his age, Houston will be smart to limit his touches.
Eddie Kennison - 0/0. Kennison left hurt, and given the pathetic passing game, dropping him for someone like Ronald Curry, Brandon Marshall, or even Antwaan Randle El wouldn't be frowned upon. Plus he's old.
Tony Gonzalez - 5/28. He's still a fine TE, but his surrounding offense will limit him. He's probably going to have some huge games, but he'll be less consistent than usual thanks to the lack of talent around him.
Andre Johnson - 7/142, 1 TD, 1 FL. So that's what he can do with a real NFL QB. Schaub hit him for a 77 yard bomb that went for a TD, ironically the longest catch of his career. Schaub will have some rough games mixed in since he's still relatively unexperienced in NFL games, but he's going to help take AJ to a borderline WR1 this season for once and utilize his tremendous physical skills. The progression of rookie playmaker Jacoby Jones will help as well.
Owen Daniels - 1/14. Don't forget about him, and don't drop him if you own him as a TE2. Schaub will start to use him more as the season moves along.
Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
Vince Young - 11/18, 78 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 11/22, 1 TD. This is why he's an overrated QB1. His passing skills need work, and his receivers are among the worst in the NFL. He'll obviously have better games than this, but Jacksonville presents a strong defensive opponent, and he'll have to get used to using what he has.
David Garrard - 17/30, 204 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 5/24. Garrard remains a solid QB2 option who won't put up huge passing numbers, but he should be solidly consistent and add good rushing totals as well.
Chris Brown - 19/175. Possibly the biggest surprise of week 1. Brown shredded Jacksonville's run defense for the weekly high in yardage. No one was ever doubted Brown's skills, and he might finally be over the turf toe injury that lingered. His durability remains a huge concern, but he's definitely created an RBBC situation. LenDale White owners aren't happy.
LenDale White - 18/66. White ran tough, but he just doesn't possess the same game-slashing, breakaway ability that Brown possesses. He's still a vital member to this now RBBC situation, and Chris Brown could go down at any time. He's well worth owning given this.
Maurice Jones-Drew - 7/32, 3/28, 1 FL. This is exactly why Jones-Drew was a bad pick this year. He was incredibly overrated, going as high as the early 2nd round in some drafts. His owners are speculating on Fred Taylor's injury, and while it's probably Taylor will miss a few games, that's exactly what needs to happen for Jones-Drew to have considerable value. He made the most of his touches per usual.
Fred Taylor - 6/16. Jacksonville just didn't run much and Taylor's numbers suffered. He's still a solid RB3 as he'll probably be far closer to 20 carries than 6 most weeks.
TEN/JAX WRs - It's arguable that no WRs from these two teams are worth owning. Matt Jones didn't even catch a pass, and he's probably the most owned from this group. Brandon Jones is worth stashing as a WR5 unless the WW options available to you this week are more enticing. Young just won't make him very consistent whatsoever.
Atlanta vs. Minnesota
Joey Harrington/Tavaris Jackson - Neither of these guys are worth owning in 1 QB leagues. They are bottom of the barrel NFL starters who don't have very much talent to throw to.
Warrick Dunn - 22/55. Petrino needs to quickly learn that Dunn's time has passed and that his true value at this stage in his career is as a 3rd down specialist/backup. If he's smart, this will be Dunn's year-high in carries unless Norwood gets hurt.
Jerious Norwood - 5/33. His time is coming, so be patient.
Chester Taylor - 3/18, 1/3. He left the game with an oblique contusion, which is new to me. The reports right now have him returning to practice as soon as later this week, but since he's likely no better than an RB3 on your squad, I doubt you're very concerned.
Adrian Peterson - 19/103, 1/60, 1 TD. Hello, Adrian Peterson. This kid's talent is undeniable, and he's an outstanding RB2 if Chester misses any time. Keep an eye on Chester's health this week before plugging him into your lineup for week 2.
Alge Crumpler - 4/40. Harrington still looks his way, but this offense is definitely not the same without Vick. Crumpler should still remain a decent TE1 as he remains the focal point of the passing game.
Joe Horn - 1/14. Don't let the big name fool you, Horn is not the same, and he's on one of the NFL's worst passing attacks. Don't let him near your starting lineup unless you have no other options.
Roddy White - 4/29. If Harrington could get the ball down the field, White will benefit as the team's best deep threat. He's not worth rostering, but you should keep an eye on him.
New England vs. New York Jets
Tom Brady - 22/28, 297 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 1/4. Brady likes his new toys. He'll be among the best fantasy QBs this season, as he always is.
Chad Pennington - 16/21, 167 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1/3. Pennington left with a badly swollen ankle, and he'll likely miss at least a game. Mangini doesn't reveal much about injuries, but it'd be a shock if he practiced this week. Kellen Clemens will take over, and he might have a shot to be the starter the rest of the season depending on how well he performs, and if Pennington misses several weeks.
Laurence Maroney - 20/72. Pretty boring game from Maroney, especially considering the Patriots scored 38 points. The passing game should eventually open up holes for Maroney, but he still dances too much and isn't decisive about where he's running. I like him much better as a RB2, but he was likely drafted as your RB1.
Thomas Jones - 14/42. Jones has a brutal start to the season, facing the Patriots yesterday, and then Baltimore and Miami are up the next two weeks. He's a weak RB2 play in the meantime, but things get easier after that. Hopefully Clemens fills in capably for Pennington to keep the defenses from stacking 8 in the box.
Randy Moss - 9/183, 1 TD. All he needed was a team that actually wanted to win. NE likely played it safe with their new acquisition after his hamstring injury, but he proved he's just fine with yesterday's monster performance. I remain skeptical that he'll post big numbers this season given the Patriot's tendency to spread the ball around, but he's far and away the best WR Brady has ever had or currently has, so hopefully for us owners he'll be utilized consistently as such.
Wes Welker - 6/61, 1 TD. He should be owned in all leagues and remains a great WR4/WR5 bye-week fill-in. Brady trusts him over the middle and Welker is very quick and good after the catch.
Donte Stallworth - 1/19. He's fast, but he's just not that great of a WR. Who knows if he's healthy, and best of luck trying to figure out when his random big games will be. He's not a bad WR4, but starting him every week just isn't worth it.
Ben Watson - 2/9, 1 TD. Like Stallworth, Watson might get lost on occasion among all the receiving threats NE has now. He remains a good TE2 for your bye week and potential injuries, but starting him every week isn't advised.
Laveraneous Coles - 7/59, 2 TD. Pennington loves Coles, and Coles owners hope that Clemens loves Coles as well. Downgrade him a bit when Clemens starts, but he's still arguably the best WR on the team. Clemens has a much better arm than Pennington and could use Coles on deeper routes more often, but as I said before, his consistency will be questionable.
Jerricho Cotchery - 6/57. Cotchery is great after the catch and will remain a solid WR3 this season. Clemens might slow the offense down somewhat, so as with Coles, downgrade him a bit with Clemens until we see him in action. Nobody knows who Clemens' favorite target might be.
Carolina vs. St. Louis
Jake Delhomme - 18/27, 201 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 3/12. Delhomme still adores Steve Smith, but who doesn't. The possible emergence of Drew Carter and the hopefully in-season progression of Dwayne Jarrett will give him additional targets. He remains a solid QB2, and given the lack of options alongside Steve Smith, he's better suited as a backup to those who have an elite QB1.
Marc Bulger - 22/42, 167 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3/18. A very ho-hum day for Bulger. The biggest news of the game here is the season-ending injury to Pro-Bowl LT Orlando Pace. His loss is a big downgrade to the offensive line and will affect all Rams players. They'll turn to youngster Alex Barron at LT now, and who knows who they'll plug in at RT. His protection won't be as good.
DeShaun Foster - 17/94, 1/7, 1 FL. An impressive performance from Foster who's well suited for the new zone-blocking scheme. DeAngelo Williams remains the more talented player, but Foster was quite talented in his own right prior to the microfracture knee surgery he underwent early in his NFL career. He had a great preseason and started off strong here. His value is on the rise and he might be a solid RB3 with the right matchup.
DeAngelo Williams - 15/62, 1/13, 1 FL. Williams ran well too, but Foster outproduced him. Fox has always shown loyalty to Foster, and given his better fit in the new running scheme, Williams' value remains questionable at the moment. He's still a part of this RBBC and his passing game skills are superior to Foster's, but Fox might start using Foster more going forward. Keep an eye on things.
Steven Jackson - 18/58, 1/3, 2 FL. Thud. Jackson looked terrible, and Pace's injury hurts his value. On the bright side, Carolina has a very good run defense when Dan Morgan is healthy, so don't read too much into this. Just hope that the line can find a suitable replacement with Pace out for the year.
Torry Holt - 8/73, 1 TD. A solid game, but his long of 18 is a bit worrisome. Holt has struggled to gain separation from cornerbacks since his knee troubled him again towards the end of last year. Holt remains a no-brainer every week starter and an elite route runner, but throwing in a big catch would help him keep his yardage consistent. This remains a slight source of concern.
Isaac Bruce - 3/20. Bruce turned in a fine season last year when on the field and remains one of the best route runners in the game, but WRs at his age start to slow down a bit, and that loss of separation does hurt their production. That being said, this is only one game, but keep an eye on him if you're starting him as your WR3.
Randy McMichael - 2/24. Given the other weapons on offense and the Rams' long history of not using their TE very much, and I find it hard to believe that McMichael will be a TE1 this year. He's better off served as your TE2.
Miami vs. Washington
Trent Green - 24/38, 219 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Green might be a decent QB2 this year if he picks up Cam Cameron's offense, and odds are he will. He doesn't have the weapons to have much upside, and he's an injury risk thanks to his severe concussion last year and his advanced age. Still, he'll probably post fairly solid numbers this year.
Jason Campbell - 12/21, 222 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4/29. Campbell is a QB with upside, but the season-ending injury to RT Jon Jansen is a blow to their offensive line. Luckily they have a capable backup in Todd Wade, but he's not as dominant as Jansen is. Campbell should improve as the season progresses.
Ronnie Brown - 11/32, 6/40. Brown owners have to be fuming at the timeshare situation that has developed in Miami. Brown is still the superior talent, so Cameron must see something in Chatman, or he must be frustrated with something he sees with Brown. He's a very risky RB2 until he wins the job outright.
Clinton Portis - 17/98, 1 TD. He looks healthy to me. Portis exploded for a 19 yard TD in the 3rd quarter and had several nice runs throughout the game. He should start to seize the featured RB role as soon as next week and is a great RB2 play.
Ladell Betts - 17/59, 1/16. Betts was solid, but Portis outplayed him and remains the superior talent. Look for Betts to have his role reduced as the weeks progress, but he remains a great RB4 due to Portis' questionable durability.
Chris Chambers - 6/92. Revived! Green and Chambers showed solid chemistry, and Chambers has emerged as a solid WR3 target with upside. He's the clear #1 on this team, and despite his overrated talent, he should emerge as a consistent fantasy option with Green as his QB now.
Santana Moss - 3/28. Campbell just didn't do a good job getting him the ball when he was open. Expect this to be one of the worst days of his season as Campbell will start connected deep with him, and Randle El's big game will give the defense something else to think about.
Antwaan Randle El - 5/162. A huge game and likely one of the most popular week 1 pickups. Given Moss' role as the #1 WR, I just cannot see this happening again. If you pick him up for depth, don't start him unless he shows consistency.
Chris Cooley - 1/10. Just a bad game, so don't overreact. Cooley is a TE1, and Campbell will do a better job as the season moves along.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Sunday, September 9, 2007
Noteable Inactives
RB Lorenzo Booker
RB Chris Henry
RB Vernand Morency
WR Drew Bennett
WR Greg Jennings
WR Dwayne Jarrett
WR Reggie Williams
Make sure to get them out of your lineup if you had planned on starting them.
RB Chris Henry
RB Vernand Morency
WR Drew Bennett
WR Greg Jennings
WR Dwayne Jarrett
WR Reggie Williams
Make sure to get them out of your lineup if you had planned on starting them.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
L.J. Smith Downgraded To Questionable
The Philadelphia Eagles downgraded TE L.J. Smith to questionable as he recovers from his hernia surgery.
Fantasy Impact: Mid-week downgrades are usually a very bad sign. I would not start him tomorrow. If he's the only TE on your roster, look to sleeper candidates Bo Scaife from Tennessee or David Martin from Miami for a possible replacement.
Fantasy Impact: Mid-week downgrades are usually a very bad sign. I would not start him tomorrow. If he's the only TE on your roster, look to sleeper candidates Bo Scaife from Tennessee or David Martin from Miami for a possible replacement.
Greg Jennings Game-Time Decision
Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings looks to be a game-time decision with the hamstring he hurt on Wednesday.
Fantasy Impact: Green Bay plays at 12 PM CST, so you'll have time to see if he's in the lineup if you plan on starting him. Be prepared with a backup plan in case he doesn't go. James Jones would start in his place.
Fantasy Impact: Green Bay plays at 12 PM CST, so you'll have time to see if he's in the lineup if you plan on starting him. Be prepared with a backup plan in case he doesn't go. James Jones would start in his place.
D.J. Hackett and Nate Burleson To Split Snaps
The Seattle Seahawks have announced their intention to split snaps between WRs D.J. Hackett and Nate Burleson. Hackett is the better all-around receiver who runs solid routes and has good hands, but Burleson possesses more speed. This comes as a bit of a surprise as Hackett has proven himself at the professional level far more than Burleson, and Burleson seems much better suited for the slot. Unfortunately Bobby Engram is a very solid slot WR in his own right, so there's no room for Burleson there.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Hackett a risky WR3 play in fantasy leagues. Nobody doubts his ability to produce in what projects to be a good Seattle offense, but if he's sharing time, that ability will be limited. He has a good matchup against Tampa Bay, but he comes with risk based on how much time he'll spend on the field.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Hackett a risky WR3 play in fantasy leagues. Nobody doubts his ability to produce in what projects to be a good Seattle offense, but if he's sharing time, that ability will be limited. He has a good matchup against Tampa Bay, but he comes with risk based on how much time he'll spend on the field.
Terry Glenn To Undergo Knee Surgery
Dallas Cowboys WR Terry Glenn is going to undergo knee surgery, but which knee surgery he will choose isn't known. If Glenn chooses arthroscopic knee surgery, he might return to the field in a few weeks, but that surgery is not guaranteed to fix his knee problems. If Glenn chooses microfracture surgery, it will fix the problem, but given his age, it's doubtful he'd ever play again. He's reportedly leaning towards arthroscopic surgery right now, but no final decision has been made.
Fantasy Impact: Terry Glenn is out indefinitely as it stands right now, so prepare to be without him for the season since that remains a strong possibility. It definitely hurts those who drafted him as he was likely drafted as a WR3, or a WR4 at worst.
Pick up Patrick Crayton in all leagues. He will line up as the starter across from Terrell Owens, and Romo utilitzed him well in the slot last year as Crayton put up 516 yards and 4 TDs. They already have a solid chemistry. With Owens attracting much of the secondary's attention, Crayton should be able to work underneath and put up some very nice WR3 numbers while Glenn is out, which could be the rest of the season. He doesn't possess the speed that Glenn has, but he has outstanding hands and knows how to get open.
Fantasy Impact: Terry Glenn is out indefinitely as it stands right now, so prepare to be without him for the season since that remains a strong possibility. It definitely hurts those who drafted him as he was likely drafted as a WR3, or a WR4 at worst.
Pick up Patrick Crayton in all leagues. He will line up as the starter across from Terrell Owens, and Romo utilitzed him well in the slot last year as Crayton put up 516 yards and 4 TDs. They already have a solid chemistry. With Owens attracting much of the secondary's attention, Crayton should be able to work underneath and put up some very nice WR3 numbers while Glenn is out, which could be the rest of the season. He doesn't possess the speed that Glenn has, but he has outstanding hands and knows how to get open.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Colts/Saints Recap
Drew Brees - 28/41, 192 YDS, 1/4, 0 TD, 2 INT, 1 FL. The Colts put pressure on him quite often last night, and then towards the end of the game, Brees made a couple throws that hail from the WTF catagory. There are some doubters out there regarding how good the Saints offense will be now that the league has gotten a whole year's look at them, but obviously 1 game doesn't prove anything. He's definitely put his owners in a hole in week 1, but he will bounce back from this ugly outing.
Deuce McAllister - 10/38, 2/7. If the Saints D is going to play like that all year, they'll be best served using McAllister far more often to establish an inside running attack and control the clock a bit. McAllister is going to be very inconsistent this year, which is exactly why he's best suited as an RB3/Flex fantasy player this year. He will have games where he approaches 20 carries and scores at least once, and then he'll have games where he's not on the field as often as Bush due to the passing game. If you play in a standard 2 RB league, odds are you weren't starting him last night anyways.
Reggie Bush - 12/38, 4/7. I know this is an RBBC, but given how often Bush was on the field in passing situations, especially during garbage time, it's ridiculous that this is all he could produce. He still dances too much in the backfield instead of taking what the defense gives him. It will get better, but one has to wonder why exactly he was going 3-4 rounds ahead of McAllister.
Marques Colston - 6/47. So goes Brees, so goes Colston. The pressure of the front line and solid job of the secondary completely limited what the Saints were able to accomplish, and Colston never got open downfield. He figured to be a bit overvalued this season as owners expected him to become an elite WR1, but expecting WR2 numbers is probably more reasonable.
Devery Henderson - 3/34. Henderson will make some big downfield plays this year, but he figures to be an inconsistent WR3. It's much better to use him during quality matchups rather than relying on him to be an every week starter. As I said before, the Colts didn't let them get deep, and Henderson isn't a very well-rounded receiver.
Eric Johnson - 8/57. Johnson figures to be a quality TE2 this year until he gets hurt. He racked up about half of his yards during garbage time, but he looks to be a nice checkdown receiver for Brees. He's always been talented in the passing game, but has never stayed healthy long enough to fully show it. Expect him to be a good bye-week fill-in, or a borderline starter in PPR leagues.
Peyton Manning - 28/41, 288, 3 TD. Vintage Manning. He started off slow in the first half, but he made his usual 2nd half adjustments and came out blazing in the 2nd half, torching former teammate Jason David for all 3 of his TDs, all of which were 25+ yards. He's given his owners a very nice start to week 1.
Joseph Addai - 23/118, 3/25, 1 TD. Addai came exactly as advertised last night, carrying the load, putting up a great yardage total, and punching one in from 2 yards out. Owners endured a brief scare when he came out with a slight ab injury on the first play, but he returned the next series and started racking up the yardage. As long as Addai can handle the full load, he's going to be very consistent thanks to the explosive Colts offense giving him plenty of room to run and numerous scoring opportunities. He looks much improved in short yardage situations, boding well for his goal line carries this year. Manning ran a playaction pass on 1st and goal, but had to throw the ball out of the endzone, and then gave it to Addai on the next play. This figures to be a frustrating theme all season long for Addai owners, but he's a lock for 10+ TDs. I don't think you'll be able to differentiate Edge's numbers from his last few Colts seasons and Addai's this season.
Marvin Harrison - 4/83, 1 TD. Harrison made an excellent TD catch, dragging his feet in bounds along the back of the endzone on a deep pattern. He's going to remain a consistent WR1 this year, but unless he has a huge finish like last season, expect this to be the year that Wayne outproduces him.
Reggie Wayne - 7/115, 2 TD, 1 FL. Wayne had his owners pissed at halftime, posting 3 catches for 4 yards and a lost fumble returned for a TD. He blew up in the 2nd half, catching 4 balls for 111 yards and 2 TDs to leave his owners smiling come game's end. Wayne will be an elite WR1 this year, and like I said above, I believe he'll outproduce Harrison this season.
Dallas Clark - 2/48, 1/14. Not a bad outing, but he's going to rely on deep routes down the middle for his value, leaving him as an inconsistent TE1 option, but a solid TE2 option. Owners in decimal scoring leagues are probably happy with the 6.2 point production from their TE, though, if they started him.
Deuce McAllister - 10/38, 2/7. If the Saints D is going to play like that all year, they'll be best served using McAllister far more often to establish an inside running attack and control the clock a bit. McAllister is going to be very inconsistent this year, which is exactly why he's best suited as an RB3/Flex fantasy player this year. He will have games where he approaches 20 carries and scores at least once, and then he'll have games where he's not on the field as often as Bush due to the passing game. If you play in a standard 2 RB league, odds are you weren't starting him last night anyways.
Reggie Bush - 12/38, 4/7. I know this is an RBBC, but given how often Bush was on the field in passing situations, especially during garbage time, it's ridiculous that this is all he could produce. He still dances too much in the backfield instead of taking what the defense gives him. It will get better, but one has to wonder why exactly he was going 3-4 rounds ahead of McAllister.
Marques Colston - 6/47. So goes Brees, so goes Colston. The pressure of the front line and solid job of the secondary completely limited what the Saints were able to accomplish, and Colston never got open downfield. He figured to be a bit overvalued this season as owners expected him to become an elite WR1, but expecting WR2 numbers is probably more reasonable.
Devery Henderson - 3/34. Henderson will make some big downfield plays this year, but he figures to be an inconsistent WR3. It's much better to use him during quality matchups rather than relying on him to be an every week starter. As I said before, the Colts didn't let them get deep, and Henderson isn't a very well-rounded receiver.
Eric Johnson - 8/57. Johnson figures to be a quality TE2 this year until he gets hurt. He racked up about half of his yards during garbage time, but he looks to be a nice checkdown receiver for Brees. He's always been talented in the passing game, but has never stayed healthy long enough to fully show it. Expect him to be a good bye-week fill-in, or a borderline starter in PPR leagues.
Peyton Manning - 28/41, 288, 3 TD. Vintage Manning. He started off slow in the first half, but he made his usual 2nd half adjustments and came out blazing in the 2nd half, torching former teammate Jason David for all 3 of his TDs, all of which were 25+ yards. He's given his owners a very nice start to week 1.
Joseph Addai - 23/118, 3/25, 1 TD. Addai came exactly as advertised last night, carrying the load, putting up a great yardage total, and punching one in from 2 yards out. Owners endured a brief scare when he came out with a slight ab injury on the first play, but he returned the next series and started racking up the yardage. As long as Addai can handle the full load, he's going to be very consistent thanks to the explosive Colts offense giving him plenty of room to run and numerous scoring opportunities. He looks much improved in short yardage situations, boding well for his goal line carries this year. Manning ran a playaction pass on 1st and goal, but had to throw the ball out of the endzone, and then gave it to Addai on the next play. This figures to be a frustrating theme all season long for Addai owners, but he's a lock for 10+ TDs. I don't think you'll be able to differentiate Edge's numbers from his last few Colts seasons and Addai's this season.
Marvin Harrison - 4/83, 1 TD. Harrison made an excellent TD catch, dragging his feet in bounds along the back of the endzone on a deep pattern. He's going to remain a consistent WR1 this year, but unless he has a huge finish like last season, expect this to be the year that Wayne outproduces him.
Reggie Wayne - 7/115, 2 TD, 1 FL. Wayne had his owners pissed at halftime, posting 3 catches for 4 yards and a lost fumble returned for a TD. He blew up in the 2nd half, catching 4 balls for 111 yards and 2 TDs to leave his owners smiling come game's end. Wayne will be an elite WR1 this year, and like I said above, I believe he'll outproduce Harrison this season.
Dallas Clark - 2/48, 1/14. Not a bad outing, but he's going to rely on deep routes down the middle for his value, leaving him as an inconsistent TE1 option, but a solid TE2 option. Owners in decimal scoring leagues are probably happy with the 6.2 point production from their TE, though, if they started him.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Mid-Week Football Injury/Player Updates:
QB:
Donovan McNabb - Nothing to note here, but he looked sharp this pre-season, so don't worry about him for week 1. He might start a bit slow with his conditioning not having played a full game in almost a year, but it shouldn't be a concern.
Jon Kitna - He missed a little bit of practice time in the preseason along with the preseason finale with back spasms, but he returned to practice and is ready to go for week 1.
RB:
Frank Gore - As most of you know, Gore missed the preseason with a broken hand. The hand is healing well, and he'll wear a pad on it to protect it, but he's ready to roll in week 1.
Willie Parker - Parker missed the first 2 preseason games with a knee ailment, but got plenty of work in the 3rd preseason game and is ready to go in week 1.
Larry Johnson - LJ missed most of the preseason in a contract holdout, but returned for the preseason finale to carry the ball a few times. The coaching staff is a bit concerned about what kind of "football shape" LJ is in right now, and while he might be a bit limited in week 1, he's good enough to start against Houston regardless. I remain very down on LJ this year. He's lost 2 HOF lineman the last two years (Willie Roaf after the 2005 season, Will Shields after the 2006 season), Herman Edwards' offense is nowhere near as good of a system as Dick Vermeil used, and the history of RBs carrying the ball 375 or more times is horrible in the next season. LJ carried it an NFL record 429 times last year including the playoffs, and he was also worked very hard after Priest Holmes went down in 2005. It is worth nothing that last year was his first year as the primary RB for all 16 games, but history is not on his side whatsoever, plus him not being in football shape yet further complicates matters. Want a few numbers? Only 3 of 19 RBs met or slightly decreased the following year as to where the other 16 had a very noticeable drop in fantasy value. These RBs averaged a drop of 107.9 fantasy points in the year following a 375+ carry season. Given the obvious drop in production due to a lesser workload combined with the degrading offense around him, and I'm fairly certain LJ will bust this year.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney's hush-hush offseason shoulder injury was the cause of concern for those looking to draft him, but he carried the ball 15 times in the 3rd preseason game, easing worries that he might not be ready to start the season. He remains a bit of an injury risk moving forward, but he's 100% for week 1.
Travis Henry - Henry's initial knee injury in week 2 of the preseason caused a lot of concern, but he was held out of the final 2 preseason games as a precaution and is ready to roll for week 1. He's also an injury risk given his history and Shanahan's reputation for over-working his primary RBs, but Shanahan's depth chart games continue with Selvin Young the current backup and Mike Bell the current FB. My take? I think this is simply motivation for Mike Bell to fix whatever problems Shanahan saw from him.
Thomas Jones - Jones' suffered a calf injury in the preseason and was held out of the remaining preseason games, but that time off is supposed to make him near 100% for the season opener. Jets' coach Eric Mangini is from Bill Belichick's School of Silent Treatment regarding injuries, so it's hard to say for sure where exactly Jones stands right now. If he's active on gameday, start him.
Clinton Portis - Portis' true health remains very much in doubt. He battled 2 separate instances of knee tendonitis this offseason, missed all 4 preseason games, and rarely practiced. It's possible that the Redskins are simply being cautious with their superstar, but the more likely scenario is that Portis still isn't 100%. He's likely not in football shape due to all the missed time, but he's going to start in week 1. Reports indicate that Betts will split time with him, and one has to wonder if that split will be 50/50, or even favor Betts in week 1. Depending on who your RB3 is, Portis remains a very risky RB2 start in week 1.
Warrick Dunn - Dunn returned quickly from back surgery to participate in the Falcons' preseason finale, but looked old and out of shape. He will remain a huge injury risk this season due to his age, career workload, smaller size, and preseason back injury. He shouldn't be anywhere near your starting roster.
Michael Turner - Turner suffered what was originally reported as a high ankle sprain, but apparently he's feeling better and might be ready for week 1. It's pretty much a non-story as he's nothing more than the handcuff to the most durable RB in the NFL, although odds are that he will get more work than last year once he's healthy.
WR:
Torry Holt - Coach Scott Linehan reported that Holt looked 100% to him, so I might have jumped the gun a bit. I still stand by my statement, though, as Holt's knee injury has lasted for about 2 years, and it was definitely a concern that Holt stated he only felt 75% just a few weeks ago. Plus, this is the time of year when coaches start hiding injury severity for strategic purposes, so it's very hard to take what they say very seriously. He remains a risk until he proves that he's healthy on the field.
Marques Colston - Colston battled a bum knee for much of the preseason, but started in the preseason finale, proving that he's 100%, or very close to it. Consider him ready for week 1.
Randy Moss - Moss has made quite a few headlines recently. He's missed all of training camp and the preseason with a mysterious hamstring ailment, and then was wildly rumored to be on the chopping block come 53 man roster cuts. He obviously survived the cuts, and one has to wonder if he's just milking this so he didn't have to go through practices. It's still a concern, but he has appeared at the media portion of practice the first two days this week. Keep an eye on the gameday inactive list, but if he's active, he'll be worth starting.
Donald Driver - Driver suffered what was originally thought to be a serious foot injury, but it's been labeled a sprain to this point and he appears healthy in practice and should be ready to go in week 1.
Mark Clayton - Clayton suffered a sprained ankle earlier in the preseason, but he returned to practice on Monday and appears ready to roll in week 1.
Darrell Jackson - Jackson has missed a lot of camp with turf toe that continues to bother him from last year, and he's also missed time recently thanks to a hamstring injury. It looks like another year of monitoring the injury reports for owners of DJax. He's rumored to be ready to play in week 1, but given his questionable health and the fact he plays on MNF, it's hard to recommend starting him unless he practices at some point this week.
Terry Glenn - Glenn is troubled by his bothersome knees and remains questionable for week 1. Patrick Crayton would make for a fine start if Glenn is to miss this game, and he's well worth picking up as a WR5 if he went undrafted in your league. Glenn's status is uncertain at this time.
TE:
Alge Crumpler - Crumpler battled a bum knee for much of the offseason, including surgery, but he returned to catch a couple passes in the preseason finale. He looks ready to go for week 1.
Jeremy Shockey - Shockey missed a bit of time in the preseason with a hamstring issue, but he's fine now and is probably as healthy as he'll be all season.
L.J. Smith - Smith returned to practice after hernia surgery and appears ready go in week 1. He's a weak start at TE, however, even at 100%.
Donovan McNabb - Nothing to note here, but he looked sharp this pre-season, so don't worry about him for week 1. He might start a bit slow with his conditioning not having played a full game in almost a year, but it shouldn't be a concern.
Jon Kitna - He missed a little bit of practice time in the preseason along with the preseason finale with back spasms, but he returned to practice and is ready to go for week 1.
RB:
Frank Gore - As most of you know, Gore missed the preseason with a broken hand. The hand is healing well, and he'll wear a pad on it to protect it, but he's ready to roll in week 1.
Willie Parker - Parker missed the first 2 preseason games with a knee ailment, but got plenty of work in the 3rd preseason game and is ready to go in week 1.
Larry Johnson - LJ missed most of the preseason in a contract holdout, but returned for the preseason finale to carry the ball a few times. The coaching staff is a bit concerned about what kind of "football shape" LJ is in right now, and while he might be a bit limited in week 1, he's good enough to start against Houston regardless. I remain very down on LJ this year. He's lost 2 HOF lineman the last two years (Willie Roaf after the 2005 season, Will Shields after the 2006 season), Herman Edwards' offense is nowhere near as good of a system as Dick Vermeil used, and the history of RBs carrying the ball 375 or more times is horrible in the next season. LJ carried it an NFL record 429 times last year including the playoffs, and he was also worked very hard after Priest Holmes went down in 2005. It is worth nothing that last year was his first year as the primary RB for all 16 games, but history is not on his side whatsoever, plus him not being in football shape yet further complicates matters. Want a few numbers? Only 3 of 19 RBs met or slightly decreased the following year as to where the other 16 had a very noticeable drop in fantasy value. These RBs averaged a drop of 107.9 fantasy points in the year following a 375+ carry season. Given the obvious drop in production due to a lesser workload combined with the degrading offense around him, and I'm fairly certain LJ will bust this year.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney's hush-hush offseason shoulder injury was the cause of concern for those looking to draft him, but he carried the ball 15 times in the 3rd preseason game, easing worries that he might not be ready to start the season. He remains a bit of an injury risk moving forward, but he's 100% for week 1.
Travis Henry - Henry's initial knee injury in week 2 of the preseason caused a lot of concern, but he was held out of the final 2 preseason games as a precaution and is ready to roll for week 1. He's also an injury risk given his history and Shanahan's reputation for over-working his primary RBs, but Shanahan's depth chart games continue with Selvin Young the current backup and Mike Bell the current FB. My take? I think this is simply motivation for Mike Bell to fix whatever problems Shanahan saw from him.
Thomas Jones - Jones' suffered a calf injury in the preseason and was held out of the remaining preseason games, but that time off is supposed to make him near 100% for the season opener. Jets' coach Eric Mangini is from Bill Belichick's School of Silent Treatment regarding injuries, so it's hard to say for sure where exactly Jones stands right now. If he's active on gameday, start him.
Clinton Portis - Portis' true health remains very much in doubt. He battled 2 separate instances of knee tendonitis this offseason, missed all 4 preseason games, and rarely practiced. It's possible that the Redskins are simply being cautious with their superstar, but the more likely scenario is that Portis still isn't 100%. He's likely not in football shape due to all the missed time, but he's going to start in week 1. Reports indicate that Betts will split time with him, and one has to wonder if that split will be 50/50, or even favor Betts in week 1. Depending on who your RB3 is, Portis remains a very risky RB2 start in week 1.
Warrick Dunn - Dunn returned quickly from back surgery to participate in the Falcons' preseason finale, but looked old and out of shape. He will remain a huge injury risk this season due to his age, career workload, smaller size, and preseason back injury. He shouldn't be anywhere near your starting roster.
Michael Turner - Turner suffered what was originally reported as a high ankle sprain, but apparently he's feeling better and might be ready for week 1. It's pretty much a non-story as he's nothing more than the handcuff to the most durable RB in the NFL, although odds are that he will get more work than last year once he's healthy.
WR:
Torry Holt - Coach Scott Linehan reported that Holt looked 100% to him, so I might have jumped the gun a bit. I still stand by my statement, though, as Holt's knee injury has lasted for about 2 years, and it was definitely a concern that Holt stated he only felt 75% just a few weeks ago. Plus, this is the time of year when coaches start hiding injury severity for strategic purposes, so it's very hard to take what they say very seriously. He remains a risk until he proves that he's healthy on the field.
Marques Colston - Colston battled a bum knee for much of the preseason, but started in the preseason finale, proving that he's 100%, or very close to it. Consider him ready for week 1.
Randy Moss - Moss has made quite a few headlines recently. He's missed all of training camp and the preseason with a mysterious hamstring ailment, and then was wildly rumored to be on the chopping block come 53 man roster cuts. He obviously survived the cuts, and one has to wonder if he's just milking this so he didn't have to go through practices. It's still a concern, but he has appeared at the media portion of practice the first two days this week. Keep an eye on the gameday inactive list, but if he's active, he'll be worth starting.
Donald Driver - Driver suffered what was originally thought to be a serious foot injury, but it's been labeled a sprain to this point and he appears healthy in practice and should be ready to go in week 1.
Mark Clayton - Clayton suffered a sprained ankle earlier in the preseason, but he returned to practice on Monday and appears ready to roll in week 1.
Darrell Jackson - Jackson has missed a lot of camp with turf toe that continues to bother him from last year, and he's also missed time recently thanks to a hamstring injury. It looks like another year of monitoring the injury reports for owners of DJax. He's rumored to be ready to play in week 1, but given his questionable health and the fact he plays on MNF, it's hard to recommend starting him unless he practices at some point this week.
Terry Glenn - Glenn is troubled by his bothersome knees and remains questionable for week 1. Patrick Crayton would make for a fine start if Glenn is to miss this game, and he's well worth picking up as a WR5 if he went undrafted in your league. Glenn's status is uncertain at this time.
TE:
Alge Crumpler - Crumpler battled a bum knee for much of the offseason, including surgery, but he returned to catch a couple passes in the preseason finale. He looks ready to go for week 1.
Jeremy Shockey - Shockey missed a bit of time in the preseason with a hamstring issue, but he's fine now and is probably as healthy as he'll be all season.
L.J. Smith - Smith returned to practice after hernia surgery and appears ready go in week 1. He's a weak start at TE, however, even at 100%.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Roger Clemens To Have MRI
Roger Clemens is scheduled for an MRI after feeling discomfort in his right elbow in his start yesterday.
Fantasy Impact: Considering where Clemens was drafted in most leagues, he's probably not a big part of your rotation, but he's been a fairly solid contributor since joining the Yankee rotation during the season. He's going to miss at least one start, and could be headed to the DL depending on the results of the MRI. I'll update this once the MRI results are released.
Fantasy Impact: Considering where Clemens was drafted in most leagues, he's probably not a big part of your rotation, but he's been a fairly solid contributor since joining the Yankee rotation during the season. He's going to miss at least one start, and could be headed to the DL depending on the results of the MRI. I'll update this once the MRI results are released.
Correction: Kevin Jones Not Headed To PUP
Several media outlets were claiming that the Detroit Lions were set to place Kevin Jones on PUP, but it appears that is not the case. This only slightly changes the outlook for Jones as he's still not going to play the first 4-6 weeks in all likelihood. If Jones were placed on PUP, he wouldn't have been allowed to do anything with the team the first 6 weeks, so this allows him to practice with the team. Supposedly he's still not doing much cutting, and that's obviously essential to all RBs.
Fantasy Impact: If you haven't drafted yet, I wouldn't let this change your outlook of him. Yes, he's eligible to play before week 6, but I can't see him missing less than the first month. Their bye is in week 6, so it makes the most sense that the Lions hold him out of the first 5 games, and then start him in week 6. If he were on PUP, he would have to sit out the 6th game after the bye week as that is based on games and not weeks, and that might be why the Lions chose to go this route.
Fantasy Impact: If you haven't drafted yet, I wouldn't let this change your outlook of him. Yes, he's eligible to play before week 6, but I can't see him missing less than the first month. Their bye is in week 6, so it makes the most sense that the Lions hold him out of the first 5 games, and then start him in week 6. If he were on PUP, he would have to sit out the 6th game after the bye week as that is based on games and not weeks, and that might be why the Lions chose to go this route.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Kevin Jones To PUP
The Detroit Lions placed RB Kevin Jones on PUP with an injured foot.
KJ still isn't healthy enough to play, and the Lions are doing the smart thing here by allowing him 6 additional weeks of rest and hoping he's available by week 6. KJ continues to mend from the Lisfranc foot fracture he suffered last year.
Fantasy Impact: None that wasn't expected. Tatum Bell will start and have the most fantasy value, and he'll continue to start until KJ returns unless he gets hurt. He's a solid RB3/Flex player with upside to be an RB2 depending on how many carries he'll get. Bell has had problems in short yardage and goal line situations, so the Lions also signed T.J. Duckett over the offseason to fill that role as he did for the Atlanta Falcons prior to his trade to the Redskins. Favor Duckett in TD-heavy leagues, although this just further confirms that the Lions will be throwing as much as any team in the NFL this season.
KJ still isn't healthy enough to play, and the Lions are doing the smart thing here by allowing him 6 additional weeks of rest and hoping he's available by week 6. KJ continues to mend from the Lisfranc foot fracture he suffered last year.
Fantasy Impact: None that wasn't expected. Tatum Bell will start and have the most fantasy value, and he'll continue to start until KJ returns unless he gets hurt. He's a solid RB3/Flex player with upside to be an RB2 depending on how many carries he'll get. Bell has had problems in short yardage and goal line situations, so the Lions also signed T.J. Duckett over the offseason to fill that role as he did for the Atlanta Falcons prior to his trade to the Redskins. Favor Duckett in TD-heavy leagues, although this just further confirms that the Lions will be throwing as much as any team in the NFL this season.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
RB Depth Chart Update
As we close in on week 1 of the NFL season, I wanted to run down the RB situation for each team again.
Buffalo Bills - Starter: Marshawn Lynch, Backup: Anthony Thomas
Marshawn Lynch has received solid work in the preseason, and while he definitely has some skills, his offensive line is really a problem. Plus, Jauron has talked about a committee. Lynch is nothing more than a RB3 as of right now, but I still expect him to receive more carries than Anthony Thomas.
Miami Dolphins - Starter: Ronnie Brown, Backup: Jesse Chatman
Ronnie Brown has looked impressive in spurts, but much like Buffalo, his offensive line is truly offensive. Cam Cameron seems intent on motivating Brown by publically claiming not to have chosen his starter yet. There's no doubt in m mind that it will be Brown, but this appears to be the third year in a row that he'll be held back by the talent around him. He could emerge as a buy-low candidate once the season gets going as the team acclimates itself to a new offensive system.
New England Patriots - Starter: Laurence Maroney, Backup: Sammy Morris
Laurence Maroney shed the non-contact jersey and also put in a nice workload in his first preseason game, carrying the ball 15 times. He's ready to roll and should put up good numbers in what appears to be an explosive offense. He better stay effective in the redzone as Morris is a powerful back who remains a threat to take the redzone carries in NE's share-the-wealth offensive system.
New York Jets - Starter: Thomas Jones, Backup: Leon Washington
Thomas Jones suffered a calf injury during the preseason, but he appears to be fine and should be ready for week 1. His all-around skills will keep him on the field for most of the game, and he was an effective redzone runner in his stay with the Bears. Washington remains an explosive backup, but should only be used as a change-of-pace RB.
Baltimore Ravens - Starter: Willis McGahee, Backup: Mike Anderson
Willis McGahee has reported been very impressive in redzone drills during the preseason, but Baltimore beat reporters say that he stills lacks explosiveness. If they're correct, then don't expect to see many big plays out of McGahee this year. Regardless of that fact, he remains the unquestioned starter on this team with reliable veteran Mike Anderson backing him up.
Cincinnati Bengals - Starter: Rudi Johnson, Backup: Kenny Watson
Rudi Johnson is in store for another large workload, although one must wonder if he can play yet another 16 game season of 325+ carries. However, the fact is that he has handled the large workload just fine so far in his career, and the offense around him should be great. Watson will be used as a 3rd down back, but he probably won't receive all the carries should Rudi get hurt.
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Jamal Lewis, Backup: Jason Wright/Jerome Harrison
This probably the most talent-bereft backfield in all of football. Lewis claims that he's over his ankle injury, but he looks just about done judging from his last 2 seasons of work. He remains the unquestioned starter, however. Should Lewis get hurt, a committee of Wright and Harrison would take his place.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Starter: Willie Parker, Backup: Najeh Davenport
Willie Parker should benefit from the new offensive system that spreads the field more, which plays to his strength of outrunning everyone. Plus, he'll probably be more involved in the passing game as new coordinator Bruce Arians loves to use all options on the field. Davenport is a fine backup who is talented in his own right, but often hurt. If Parker struggles again in goal line work this season, look for the Steelers to find an alternative goal line RB.
Houston Texans - Starter: Ahman Green, Backup: Ron Dayne
Ahman Green should remain a fairly valuable starter while healthy, but at age 30 with a fairly large workload and several injuries in his past, one has to wonder if he'll play 16 games this season. Odds are strong against that. The Texans' offense this year should play to his strength, although rumors about Dayne being used around the goal line persist. Dayne would be a fairly productive RB if Green went down.
Indianapolis Colts - Starter: Joseph Addai, Backup: DeDe Dorsey
Joseph Addai will put his all-around skills on display for 320+ touches this season, and only his durability remains a question. He'll be on the field the majority of the time, and when he's not, it sounds like DeDe Dorsey will spell him. Dorsey and Kenton Keith are battling for the backup spot, but it seems as though Dorsey will get that job. Should Addai go down, Dorsey should be a solid option.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Starter: Fred Taylor, Backup: Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jaguars didn't pay Fred Taylor $5 million to come back this year to sit on the bench, so he's being very overlooked in drafts this year, currently carrying a 7.11 ADP value. Taylor is still the starter of this team, and still a talented one at that. Jones-Drew will be used on 3rd downs, but his goal line role is undefined with the return of Greg Jones. Taylor should remain healthier than usual being spelled more often by Jones-Drew as evidenced by last season. If Taylor went down, Jones-Drew would become a fantasy stud, however.
Tennessee Titans - RBBC : LenDale White and Chris Brown
Jeff Fisher seemed impressed with Chris Brown's work so far in the preseason, and he has stated that this will be a committee with him and LenDale White. White is far more suited to be a 300 carry RB than Chris Brown is, but his conditioning and knack for minor injuries is holding him back. White will have every chance to win this job outright, but consider it RBBC to start the season. Chris Brown should be the 3rd down back regardless.
Denver Broncos - Starter: Travis Henry, Backup: Mike Bell
Travis Henry tweaked his knee in the preseason, but all signs point to him being 100% for week 1. Mike Bell also suffered an injury of his own to his hip, but he has also returned to practice and appears ready for the start of the season. Henry is the unquestioned starter of this team, but Bell will get more work than most backups due to Denver's love of running the ball. If Henry went down, Bell would be a very good fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs - Starter: Larry Johnson, Backup: Michael Bennett
Who really believed that Larry Johnson was going to holdout? He's signed and ready for a bit of action in the final preseason game, so he should be 100% ready to go for week 1. The Chiefs want to ease off of him a bit this year, and given his 416 carries last year, that obviously seems like a good idea. Bennett remains the backup for now, but given his incredibly unreliable he is, Kolby Smith should overtake him at some point. If LJ went down, it would probably be a RBBC until Smith outplayed Bennett enough to take the carries from him.
Oakland Raiders - Starter: LaMont Jordan, Backup: Justin Fargas (until week 6), Dominic Rhodes (after week 6)
LaMont Jordan has looked explosive in the preseason so far, so it appears that he's over the bcak injury that plagued him over the summer somewhat. It remains a bit of a concern going forward as most back injuries would, but he looks fine on the field. Jordan definitely has the talent to take this job over in the first 4 weeks while Rhodes is suspended, and as long as he stays healthy, I expect him to do so. Rhodes averaged 3.4 YPC in a great Indy offense last year (Addai posted a 4.8 YPC), so I fail to see how he'd be a superior option. He's an all-around back that should be on the field most of the game, and Rhodes would take over after his suspension if an injury would befall Jordan.
San Diego Chargers - Starter: LaDainian Tomlinson, Backup: Michael Turner
Any questions here? I didn't think so. Turner suffered what some believed to be the dreaded high ankle sprain in the last preseason game, but recent reports have given a more positive diagnosis. Turner is questionable for week 1, and should LT go down while Turner is not 100%, Darren Sproles would take over. Sproles is explosive, but he doesn't possess the size to be a 25 carry RB.
Dallas Cowboys - Starter: Julius Jones, Backup: Marion Barber III
Julius Jones is still the starter of this team with the new coaching staff, and he might actually get more work than under Parcells where he was pulled in 3rd down and goal line situations. Jones won't get all the touches like most unquestioned starters would as Barber will still play plenty on 3rd downs and around the goal line, but their roles don't seem to be as clearly defined as last year. If Jones were to get hurt, Barber would be a very valuable fantasy commodity.
New York Giants - Starter: Brandon Jacobs, Backup: Derrick Ward/Ryan Grant
If you didn't believe me before, you will now. Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter of this team, and the Giants are actually moving Reuben Droughns back to the fullback position that he played in Detroit. That should provide the Giants with some flexibility on their playcalling with both on the field. Should Jacobs go down, it appears as though some committee between Derrick Ward and Ryan Grant would form, although you can't rule out the possibility of the Giants moving Droughns back to RB at that point.
Philadelphia - Starter: Brian Westbrook, Backup: Correll Buckhalter
Brian Westbrook remains the multi-talented, unquestioned starter who will line up all over the field and be used in a variety of ways. The backup situation is a bit muddled, but the Eagles have stated that Buckhalter will resume his role as the primary backup RB. Rookie Tony Hunt should also be used as the Eagles like to do different things of offense, and Hunt also remains a candidate to take goal line carries this year. The goal line situation is a big question mark here.
Washington Redskins - Starter: Clinton Portis, Backup: Ladell Betts
Clinton Portis has been battling knee tendonitis for some time now, but the Redskins state that he could have played more in the preseason, and also that he's in line for a few carries in their last preseason game. Portis is the unquestioned starter if he's healthy, but that's a big if right now. We all saw what Betts could do last year as the starter, and he remains the unquestioned backup RB who would be very valuable if Portis goes down again. He'll probably receive more work than most backups depending on Portis' knee.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Cedric Benson, Backup: Adrian Peterson
Cedric Benson gets his wish as the unquestioned starter, but he'll give way on 3rd downs to a combination of Peterson and Wolfe depending on the play being called. He should get plenty of touches, but it remains a question what exactly he'll do with them. He's looked sluggish and unexplosive in my eyes, but perhaps he's saving himself for the regular season. I can only hope. Peterson has retained the backup position over rookie Garrett Wolfe, and he'd likely be a solid fantasy RB should Benson get hurt.
Detroit Lions - Starter: Tatum Bell, Backup: T.J. Duckett
Kevin Jones' health remains a mystery, and he's scheduled to see a doctor on Thursday to see if he'll be medically cleared. It would be a shock if he didn't start the year on PUP. Until he returns, Tatum Bell will be the primary ball carrier while Duckett steals short yardage and goal line carries. Once KJ returns, his role will be determined by exactly how healthy it is. As you can see, this situation is a bit of a mess.
Green Bay Packers - Starter: Brandon Jackson, Backup: Vernand Morency
Brandon Jackson has won the starting job if for no other reason than Morency hurting his knee very early in preseason. Jackson also hurt himself, suffering a concussion in the last preseason game. He'll be held out of the final preseason game, but appears ready to roll in week 1. Morency's status for week 1 is questionable, and Jackson will receive the majority of carries and a chance to win the job outright depending on how he performs. Morency would likely be at least a 3rd down back when he returns, which is what he's best suited for.
Minnesota Vikings - RBBC: Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson
Chester will technically remain the starter for the Vikings, but Peterson was clearly a very impressive runner and showed off his talent as well. They will split carries in some fashion with a slight edge to Chester to start the season, but if the Vikings season goes in the tank early, expect Peterson to start getting more carries. Peterson has obviously been medically cleared regarding his collarbone, but it's a smart move here to continue using Chester and breaking Peterson into the NFL game slowly. They'll have to run the ball a lot to stay in games and protect raw QB Tavaris Jackson.
Atlanta Falcons - Starter: Warrick Dunn, Backup: Jerious Norwood
Warrick Dunn will start week 1 as the coaching staff seems to prefer the veteran at this point. Dunn came back incredibly quick after back surgery, but he looked horrible in his first preseason game. He's not in shape yet, but that hasn't deterred Petrino from naming Dunn the week 1 starter. I just can't see that lasting very long, and I expect Norwood to take over at some point as the team's starter once he proves that he's better on the field. Dunn has been a great NFL RB, especially for his size, but I don't think he has it anymore, and he's not a good fit for this new offensive system.
Carolina Panthers - Starter: DeShaun Foster, Backup: DeAngelo Williams
Foster has run fairly well in the preseason and has maintained his starter's status. He should run for a higher YPC this year while he's healthy as the new zone-blocking technique that Carolina has implemented plays to his quickness. Williams is no doubt the better talent, but John Fox has remain loyal to his veteran, and just like Fred Taylor, he wasn't re-signed to sit on the bench. Williams will play more than most backups, especially on 3rd down, but unless he blows Fox's socks off while in the game, this is Foster's job.
New Orleans Saints - RBBC: Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush
This will be a full blown RBBC, but McAllister should take most of the goal line work, and Bush should take most of the 3rd down work. This is probably the most jumbled of all RBBCs as Bush will be involved around the goal line as well, McAllister is not a bad pass catching back, Bush will be lined up all over the field, and both will be on the field at the same time in certain packages. As I stated before, expect more of the same as last year, but also expect Bush to get more touches this year as McAllister should slowly give way to him. If one gets hurt, the other would gain a lot of value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Starter: Cadillac Williams, Backup: Michael Pittman
Cadillac has solidified the starting job here, and Tampa Bay hasn't used him much in the preseason, just like his rookie year. Gruden wanted Williams to become a 3 down back, but reports are that he's dropping too many passes in practice, and that Pittman will likely resume his role as the 3rd down back. Alstott has retired, so Williams will be used around the goal line far more often, giving his value a boost. Should Williams go down, Pittman would become a fairly solid fantasy RB.
Arizona Cardinals - Starter: Edgerrin James, Backup: Marcel Shipp
Edgerrin James is the unquestioned starter, but the questionable part of his role is the goal line work. There's been rumors that Wisenhunt prefers Marcel Shipp around paydirt, and Edgerrin's already depressed value given his age and career workload would take another hit if that plays out. It's something to monitor, and Shipp would like split 3rd down duties with J.J. Arrington if Edge were to go down. Edge remains the preferred 3rd down back due to his impressive passing game skills.
Seattle Seahawks - Starter: Shaun Alexander, Backup: Maurice Morris
Shaun Alexander returns as the unquestioned stater, and Morris remains the boring but fairly reliable backup. Alexander's career workload and performance last season after he returned from the cracked foot (he simply put up good numbers via pure volume) make him a questionable bet to finish the season, so Morris will likely make at least one start during the season. Morris will also continue his work on 3rd down situations.
San Francisco 49ers - Starter: Frank Gore, Backup: Maurice Hicks
Frank Gore owners received a scare when he broke his hand in the offseason prior to the start of preseason, but he's continued working out as much as possible prior to the season and should be 100% by week 1. There were rumors that he'd play some in the preseason finale, but there's no reason for the 49ers to risk him in a meaningless game. If Gore were to miss time, Hicks is techincally the backup, but I imagine Michael Robinson would split work with him in some fashion.
St. Louis Rams - Starter: Steven Jackson, Backup: Brian Leonard
Steven Jackson barely saw the field in the preseason, much like LT does each season, and it's a good idea given the workload he took on last season. He remains the unquestioned starter and all-world talent on a great offense. If Jackson got hurt, Leonard would assume the starting position and likely post great numbers. He didn't have a big time college career, but he possesses great all-around skills and looked solid in the preseason.
Buffalo Bills - Starter: Marshawn Lynch, Backup: Anthony Thomas
Marshawn Lynch has received solid work in the preseason, and while he definitely has some skills, his offensive line is really a problem. Plus, Jauron has talked about a committee. Lynch is nothing more than a RB3 as of right now, but I still expect him to receive more carries than Anthony Thomas.
Miami Dolphins - Starter: Ronnie Brown, Backup: Jesse Chatman
Ronnie Brown has looked impressive in spurts, but much like Buffalo, his offensive line is truly offensive. Cam Cameron seems intent on motivating Brown by publically claiming not to have chosen his starter yet. There's no doubt in m mind that it will be Brown, but this appears to be the third year in a row that he'll be held back by the talent around him. He could emerge as a buy-low candidate once the season gets going as the team acclimates itself to a new offensive system.
New England Patriots - Starter: Laurence Maroney, Backup: Sammy Morris
Laurence Maroney shed the non-contact jersey and also put in a nice workload in his first preseason game, carrying the ball 15 times. He's ready to roll and should put up good numbers in what appears to be an explosive offense. He better stay effective in the redzone as Morris is a powerful back who remains a threat to take the redzone carries in NE's share-the-wealth offensive system.
New York Jets - Starter: Thomas Jones, Backup: Leon Washington
Thomas Jones suffered a calf injury during the preseason, but he appears to be fine and should be ready for week 1. His all-around skills will keep him on the field for most of the game, and he was an effective redzone runner in his stay with the Bears. Washington remains an explosive backup, but should only be used as a change-of-pace RB.
Baltimore Ravens - Starter: Willis McGahee, Backup: Mike Anderson
Willis McGahee has reported been very impressive in redzone drills during the preseason, but Baltimore beat reporters say that he stills lacks explosiveness. If they're correct, then don't expect to see many big plays out of McGahee this year. Regardless of that fact, he remains the unquestioned starter on this team with reliable veteran Mike Anderson backing him up.
Cincinnati Bengals - Starter: Rudi Johnson, Backup: Kenny Watson
Rudi Johnson is in store for another large workload, although one must wonder if he can play yet another 16 game season of 325+ carries. However, the fact is that he has handled the large workload just fine so far in his career, and the offense around him should be great. Watson will be used as a 3rd down back, but he probably won't receive all the carries should Rudi get hurt.
Cleveland Browns - Starter: Jamal Lewis, Backup: Jason Wright/Jerome Harrison
This probably the most talent-bereft backfield in all of football. Lewis claims that he's over his ankle injury, but he looks just about done judging from his last 2 seasons of work. He remains the unquestioned starter, however. Should Lewis get hurt, a committee of Wright and Harrison would take his place.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Starter: Willie Parker, Backup: Najeh Davenport
Willie Parker should benefit from the new offensive system that spreads the field more, which plays to his strength of outrunning everyone. Plus, he'll probably be more involved in the passing game as new coordinator Bruce Arians loves to use all options on the field. Davenport is a fine backup who is talented in his own right, but often hurt. If Parker struggles again in goal line work this season, look for the Steelers to find an alternative goal line RB.
Houston Texans - Starter: Ahman Green, Backup: Ron Dayne
Ahman Green should remain a fairly valuable starter while healthy, but at age 30 with a fairly large workload and several injuries in his past, one has to wonder if he'll play 16 games this season. Odds are strong against that. The Texans' offense this year should play to his strength, although rumors about Dayne being used around the goal line persist. Dayne would be a fairly productive RB if Green went down.
Indianapolis Colts - Starter: Joseph Addai, Backup: DeDe Dorsey
Joseph Addai will put his all-around skills on display for 320+ touches this season, and only his durability remains a question. He'll be on the field the majority of the time, and when he's not, it sounds like DeDe Dorsey will spell him. Dorsey and Kenton Keith are battling for the backup spot, but it seems as though Dorsey will get that job. Should Addai go down, Dorsey should be a solid option.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Starter: Fred Taylor, Backup: Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jaguars didn't pay Fred Taylor $5 million to come back this year to sit on the bench, so he's being very overlooked in drafts this year, currently carrying a 7.11 ADP value. Taylor is still the starter of this team, and still a talented one at that. Jones-Drew will be used on 3rd downs, but his goal line role is undefined with the return of Greg Jones. Taylor should remain healthier than usual being spelled more often by Jones-Drew as evidenced by last season. If Taylor went down, Jones-Drew would become a fantasy stud, however.
Tennessee Titans - RBBC : LenDale White and Chris Brown
Jeff Fisher seemed impressed with Chris Brown's work so far in the preseason, and he has stated that this will be a committee with him and LenDale White. White is far more suited to be a 300 carry RB than Chris Brown is, but his conditioning and knack for minor injuries is holding him back. White will have every chance to win this job outright, but consider it RBBC to start the season. Chris Brown should be the 3rd down back regardless.
Denver Broncos - Starter: Travis Henry, Backup: Mike Bell
Travis Henry tweaked his knee in the preseason, but all signs point to him being 100% for week 1. Mike Bell also suffered an injury of his own to his hip, but he has also returned to practice and appears ready for the start of the season. Henry is the unquestioned starter of this team, but Bell will get more work than most backups due to Denver's love of running the ball. If Henry went down, Bell would be a very good fantasy RB.
Kansas City Chiefs - Starter: Larry Johnson, Backup: Michael Bennett
Who really believed that Larry Johnson was going to holdout? He's signed and ready for a bit of action in the final preseason game, so he should be 100% ready to go for week 1. The Chiefs want to ease off of him a bit this year, and given his 416 carries last year, that obviously seems like a good idea. Bennett remains the backup for now, but given his incredibly unreliable he is, Kolby Smith should overtake him at some point. If LJ went down, it would probably be a RBBC until Smith outplayed Bennett enough to take the carries from him.
Oakland Raiders - Starter: LaMont Jordan, Backup: Justin Fargas (until week 6), Dominic Rhodes (after week 6)
LaMont Jordan has looked explosive in the preseason so far, so it appears that he's over the bcak injury that plagued him over the summer somewhat. It remains a bit of a concern going forward as most back injuries would, but he looks fine on the field. Jordan definitely has the talent to take this job over in the first 4 weeks while Rhodes is suspended, and as long as he stays healthy, I expect him to do so. Rhodes averaged 3.4 YPC in a great Indy offense last year (Addai posted a 4.8 YPC), so I fail to see how he'd be a superior option. He's an all-around back that should be on the field most of the game, and Rhodes would take over after his suspension if an injury would befall Jordan.
San Diego Chargers - Starter: LaDainian Tomlinson, Backup: Michael Turner
Any questions here? I didn't think so. Turner suffered what some believed to be the dreaded high ankle sprain in the last preseason game, but recent reports have given a more positive diagnosis. Turner is questionable for week 1, and should LT go down while Turner is not 100%, Darren Sproles would take over. Sproles is explosive, but he doesn't possess the size to be a 25 carry RB.
Dallas Cowboys - Starter: Julius Jones, Backup: Marion Barber III
Julius Jones is still the starter of this team with the new coaching staff, and he might actually get more work than under Parcells where he was pulled in 3rd down and goal line situations. Jones won't get all the touches like most unquestioned starters would as Barber will still play plenty on 3rd downs and around the goal line, but their roles don't seem to be as clearly defined as last year. If Jones were to get hurt, Barber would be a very valuable fantasy commodity.
New York Giants - Starter: Brandon Jacobs, Backup: Derrick Ward/Ryan Grant
If you didn't believe me before, you will now. Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter of this team, and the Giants are actually moving Reuben Droughns back to the fullback position that he played in Detroit. That should provide the Giants with some flexibility on their playcalling with both on the field. Should Jacobs go down, it appears as though some committee between Derrick Ward and Ryan Grant would form, although you can't rule out the possibility of the Giants moving Droughns back to RB at that point.
Philadelphia - Starter: Brian Westbrook, Backup: Correll Buckhalter
Brian Westbrook remains the multi-talented, unquestioned starter who will line up all over the field and be used in a variety of ways. The backup situation is a bit muddled, but the Eagles have stated that Buckhalter will resume his role as the primary backup RB. Rookie Tony Hunt should also be used as the Eagles like to do different things of offense, and Hunt also remains a candidate to take goal line carries this year. The goal line situation is a big question mark here.
Washington Redskins - Starter: Clinton Portis, Backup: Ladell Betts
Clinton Portis has been battling knee tendonitis for some time now, but the Redskins state that he could have played more in the preseason, and also that he's in line for a few carries in their last preseason game. Portis is the unquestioned starter if he's healthy, but that's a big if right now. We all saw what Betts could do last year as the starter, and he remains the unquestioned backup RB who would be very valuable if Portis goes down again. He'll probably receive more work than most backups depending on Portis' knee.
Chicago Bears - Starter: Cedric Benson, Backup: Adrian Peterson
Cedric Benson gets his wish as the unquestioned starter, but he'll give way on 3rd downs to a combination of Peterson and Wolfe depending on the play being called. He should get plenty of touches, but it remains a question what exactly he'll do with them. He's looked sluggish and unexplosive in my eyes, but perhaps he's saving himself for the regular season. I can only hope. Peterson has retained the backup position over rookie Garrett Wolfe, and he'd likely be a solid fantasy RB should Benson get hurt.
Detroit Lions - Starter: Tatum Bell, Backup: T.J. Duckett
Kevin Jones' health remains a mystery, and he's scheduled to see a doctor on Thursday to see if he'll be medically cleared. It would be a shock if he didn't start the year on PUP. Until he returns, Tatum Bell will be the primary ball carrier while Duckett steals short yardage and goal line carries. Once KJ returns, his role will be determined by exactly how healthy it is. As you can see, this situation is a bit of a mess.
Green Bay Packers - Starter: Brandon Jackson, Backup: Vernand Morency
Brandon Jackson has won the starting job if for no other reason than Morency hurting his knee very early in preseason. Jackson also hurt himself, suffering a concussion in the last preseason game. He'll be held out of the final preseason game, but appears ready to roll in week 1. Morency's status for week 1 is questionable, and Jackson will receive the majority of carries and a chance to win the job outright depending on how he performs. Morency would likely be at least a 3rd down back when he returns, which is what he's best suited for.
Minnesota Vikings - RBBC: Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson
Chester will technically remain the starter for the Vikings, but Peterson was clearly a very impressive runner and showed off his talent as well. They will split carries in some fashion with a slight edge to Chester to start the season, but if the Vikings season goes in the tank early, expect Peterson to start getting more carries. Peterson has obviously been medically cleared regarding his collarbone, but it's a smart move here to continue using Chester and breaking Peterson into the NFL game slowly. They'll have to run the ball a lot to stay in games and protect raw QB Tavaris Jackson.
Atlanta Falcons - Starter: Warrick Dunn, Backup: Jerious Norwood
Warrick Dunn will start week 1 as the coaching staff seems to prefer the veteran at this point. Dunn came back incredibly quick after back surgery, but he looked horrible in his first preseason game. He's not in shape yet, but that hasn't deterred Petrino from naming Dunn the week 1 starter. I just can't see that lasting very long, and I expect Norwood to take over at some point as the team's starter once he proves that he's better on the field. Dunn has been a great NFL RB, especially for his size, but I don't think he has it anymore, and he's not a good fit for this new offensive system.
Carolina Panthers - Starter: DeShaun Foster, Backup: DeAngelo Williams
Foster has run fairly well in the preseason and has maintained his starter's status. He should run for a higher YPC this year while he's healthy as the new zone-blocking technique that Carolina has implemented plays to his quickness. Williams is no doubt the better talent, but John Fox has remain loyal to his veteran, and just like Fred Taylor, he wasn't re-signed to sit on the bench. Williams will play more than most backups, especially on 3rd down, but unless he blows Fox's socks off while in the game, this is Foster's job.
New Orleans Saints - RBBC: Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush
This will be a full blown RBBC, but McAllister should take most of the goal line work, and Bush should take most of the 3rd down work. This is probably the most jumbled of all RBBCs as Bush will be involved around the goal line as well, McAllister is not a bad pass catching back, Bush will be lined up all over the field, and both will be on the field at the same time in certain packages. As I stated before, expect more of the same as last year, but also expect Bush to get more touches this year as McAllister should slowly give way to him. If one gets hurt, the other would gain a lot of value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Starter: Cadillac Williams, Backup: Michael Pittman
Cadillac has solidified the starting job here, and Tampa Bay hasn't used him much in the preseason, just like his rookie year. Gruden wanted Williams to become a 3 down back, but reports are that he's dropping too many passes in practice, and that Pittman will likely resume his role as the 3rd down back. Alstott has retired, so Williams will be used around the goal line far more often, giving his value a boost. Should Williams go down, Pittman would become a fairly solid fantasy RB.
Arizona Cardinals - Starter: Edgerrin James, Backup: Marcel Shipp
Edgerrin James is the unquestioned starter, but the questionable part of his role is the goal line work. There's been rumors that Wisenhunt prefers Marcel Shipp around paydirt, and Edgerrin's already depressed value given his age and career workload would take another hit if that plays out. It's something to monitor, and Shipp would like split 3rd down duties with J.J. Arrington if Edge were to go down. Edge remains the preferred 3rd down back due to his impressive passing game skills.
Seattle Seahawks - Starter: Shaun Alexander, Backup: Maurice Morris
Shaun Alexander returns as the unquestioned stater, and Morris remains the boring but fairly reliable backup. Alexander's career workload and performance last season after he returned from the cracked foot (he simply put up good numbers via pure volume) make him a questionable bet to finish the season, so Morris will likely make at least one start during the season. Morris will also continue his work on 3rd down situations.
San Francisco 49ers - Starter: Frank Gore, Backup: Maurice Hicks
Frank Gore owners received a scare when he broke his hand in the offseason prior to the start of preseason, but he's continued working out as much as possible prior to the season and should be 100% by week 1. There were rumors that he'd play some in the preseason finale, but there's no reason for the 49ers to risk him in a meaningless game. If Gore were to miss time, Hicks is techincally the backup, but I imagine Michael Robinson would split work with him in some fashion.
St. Louis Rams - Starter: Steven Jackson, Backup: Brian Leonard
Steven Jackson barely saw the field in the preseason, much like LT does each season, and it's a good idea given the workload he took on last season. He remains the unquestioned starter and all-world talent on a great offense. If Jackson got hurt, Leonard would assume the starting position and likely post great numbers. He didn't have a big time college career, but he possesses great all-around skills and looked solid in the preseason.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Torry Holt's Knee
St. Louis Rams WR Torry Holt's knee is starting to become a serious problem. He estimates that he's only 70-80% healthy, and he also stated that he wasn't sure if it would ever heal all the way. This is a problem that he's been dealing with for about 2 years now. He had offseason surgery on it, but his knee clearly has not recovered yet.
Fantasy Impact: I would avoid taking him in the 2nd round as your WR1 as his ADP is 2.10. There are plenty of WR1s being taken in the same vicinity of Holt such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Terrell Owens. All have similar upside, and none of them have current health issues. Take any one of them before Holt and let someone else gamble that Holt will be his usual self this year. Holt might end up being fine, but why take the risk with your top WR?
The other person affected here is Marc Bulger. If Holt isn't 100%, Bulger loses big production from one of the best WRs in football and obviously his favorite target. Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett are quality options, but Bruce is aging, and Bennett is overrated as a true starter. The Rams offense won't be quite the same, and that leads me to believe that Bulger would suffer from it. More of the offense might go through Steven Jackson. Bulger will still have solid options, but he becomes a riskier pick, and you have to factor that in if you're going to use your 4th rounder on him. It might be wiser to use that on a WR2 instead, and go after a better value pick at the QB position a bit later in the draft.
Fantasy Impact: I would avoid taking him in the 2nd round as your WR1 as his ADP is 2.10. There are plenty of WR1s being taken in the same vicinity of Holt such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Terrell Owens. All have similar upside, and none of them have current health issues. Take any one of them before Holt and let someone else gamble that Holt will be his usual self this year. Holt might end up being fine, but why take the risk with your top WR?
The other person affected here is Marc Bulger. If Holt isn't 100%, Bulger loses big production from one of the best WRs in football and obviously his favorite target. Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett are quality options, but Bruce is aging, and Bennett is overrated as a true starter. The Rams offense won't be quite the same, and that leads me to believe that Bulger would suffer from it. More of the offense might go through Steven Jackson. Bulger will still have solid options, but he becomes a riskier pick, and you have to factor that in if you're going to use your 4th rounder on him. It might be wiser to use that on a WR2 instead, and go after a better value pick at the QB position a bit later in the draft.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Fantasy Football QB Analysis
I'm going to note the ADP for each QB that I believe are viable starting QBs in your standard 12 team, 1 starting QB league. Like I've said before, it's not about ranking players, but it's about analyzing where players are going and whether or not they're worth the price you have to pay to acquire them. The 1st number is the round, followed by a dot, and then the 2nd number is the pick in the round.
1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year. I'm not a fan of taking a QB this early, especially this year when there are less RBs with 300 carry potential due to the growing popularity of the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) strategy. This ADP might be inflated by people who take him very early, however. I would not want to take Manning over clearcut starters like Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs due to the reason I outlined above. All of those RBs have top 10 potential. I understand the certainty that you're paying for with him, but QB is usually deeper than most people think, and if you're starting only one QB versus 2 RBs (possibly 3 with a flex), you need those RBs to field a strong lineup. I would happily take Manning once you get down to the Shaun Alexander (although he goes way higher than I'd take him), Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson type RBs, however. Manning is a better bet than those guys who are available around the same time. I'd also take Manning over every WR. That being said, I won't own him in any league this year thanks to his high price tag.
3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning. If you want to take a QB this high, I'd happily take Palmer in the 3rd round. He's 100% this year after having that time to recover from the knee injury suffered in the 2005 playoffs, and his much stronger 2nd half last year proved it once he finally got comfortable again. Moving forward, I think it'll be hard to tell Palmer and Manning apart stats-wise, which makes Palmer a much better pick. His WRs are just as talented as Manning's are. Imagine having LT or Steven Jackson plus Palmer. Now that's a foundation.
3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year. Brady plays in a very spread-the-wealth offense, and given that he's surrounded by the best talent of his career with the additions of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, plus TE Ben Watson, he's never had so many weapons, especially downfield receivers. There's a good chance that he'll turn in one of the finest seasons of his career and he could give Manning and Palmer a run for their money, but he's going to have to finish #3 to warrant this pick. He's a solid option here, although I'd prefer him a bit better in the 4th round.
3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year. He had one of the most surprising rebound seasons in recent memory last year, including an incredible stretch of 5 straight 300+ yard passing games. He's going to have to repeat his career season in order to justify that ADP, and it's hard to ask someone to have 2 consecutive career seasons. Joe Horn is gone, and while he was injured last year and the Saints were in too much of a groove to notice, don't underestimate the savvy veteran's impact on the team. I know Colston filled in just fine for a while, but it's a lot to ask a 2nd year WR to become the focal point of the passing game and stay among the NFL's best. You're not getting any value here as his ceiling will be the only thing that makes him worth taking this high. Plus with Bush's better knowledge of how to run at the NFL level, the Saints should take advantage of their talented RBs to keep their suspect defense off the field a bit more.
4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year. He had a terrific year last year, finally staying healthy for 16 games, and he thrived in Linehan's offense. He didn't throw an INT until week 6. The Rams added Drew Bennett to the slot, and they also added Randy McMichael as a passing game presence at the TE position. The Rams were pass-happy in the redzone, although given the effectiveness of Steven Jackson down the stretch around the goal line, I don't expect them to throw quite so much around the goal line this year. Still, with a great pass catching RB, added weapons in the passing game, and a solid offensive system, Bulger looks set to repeat last season's numbers. A warning though...don't forget about Holt's troublesome knee. He's the key to this powerful offense, and Bulger would go from solid value to a bit over-valued if Holt continues to struggle with that injury.
4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value. Last year, we saw Carson Palmer start off cold until he became re-adjusted to the pocket. We also saw Daunte Culpepper look absolutely brutal before shutting it down, but his knee injury was a lot more serious than McNabb's. All preseason reports on McNabb have been good as he looks comfortable in the pocket and his throws look strong. He was the #1 fantasy player last year before going down, putting up a huge season like what happened to him back in 2002. I doubt he runs anywhere close to what he usually does, but even as just a passer, he's arguably a top 5 QB. Westbrook is amazing out of the backfield, Reggie Brown has another year of experience, and they replaced the injury-prone Stallworth with an equally fast, smarter, and more durable Kevin Curtis. Expecting a slow start isn't a bad idea, but he'll be just fine when it counts. Make sure to take a backup higher than the other top guys if you select him due to the injury history.
6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year. Kitna looked like a more injury-prone Marc Bulger last season. He makes too many stupid throws and is careless with the ball in the pocket at times, but he threw for a ton of yards and should find the endzone plenty this year. Kevin Jones is probably headed to the PUP list and is replaced by Tatum Bell. Bell is far less reliable out of the backfield, so expect even more passing. The Lions added Calvin Johnson, who is arguably the most physically gifted WR to come out of college. His blend of size and speed is unheard of, and he's a hard-working, smart player to boot. Expect a much smaller learning curve for him as compared to most rookies, and he'll immediately become a huge upgrade opposite the equally-talented Roy Williams. Furrey, a wonderful safety valve, was re-signed and moves to the slot which suits his skills much better. With the upgraded talent and the reliance on the passing game, only health with prevent Kitna from putting up a big year.
6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year. He's coming off a disasterous season, but fantasy owners obviously expect a rebound by drafting him as the 8th QB off the board. The Seattle system is very good for producing solid fantasy numbers. While having Deion Branch in their offense will definitely help improve the chemistry between him and Hasselbeck, he'll be flanked by D.J. Hackett. Branch and Hackett are good system receivers, but they just don't possess the type of talent that Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson had. Alexander is non-existant out of the backfield in the passing game, and Marcus Pollard is an aging, decent option at TE. I think Hasselbeck will be solid, but I don't see any upside here.
7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year. Fantasy owners must not think he was for real last season, or else he'd be going ahead of Hasselbeck. He easily put up top 10 numbers in the 12 weeks that he played, and he's only going to get better. Terrell Owens remains a bit of a risk as a #1 WR, but he should drop less passes this year after fixing the torn tendon in his finger. He's still a monster in the redzone. Glenn is a solid #2, and while he's a big health risk, I believe Patrick Crayton can easily fill his role in the offense if necessary. Witten provides a very good TE in the passing game, and Barber is great out of the backfield. The weapons are there, and Romo should capitalize with a solid season. He also provides a bit of value on the ground as he's a very mobile QB despite not being fast.
7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued. He had an incredible first season that exceeded all expectations, but I don't think he has the talent around him at the WR position that will allow him to take the next step. LT is incredible out of the backfield, and Norv Turner loves throwing to his RBs. Antonio Gates is the best TE in football. Vincent Jackson is an emerging deep threat, but his all-around game needs work and he doesn't have much on-field experience yet. Rookie Craig Davis flanks him, and while his speed is great, his hands remain suspect, and he's replacing the reliable, if unspectacular Eric Parker who's out at least 6 weeks with a broken foot. He's a fairly solid choice, but like with Hasselbeck, I don't see much further upside.
8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued. I question him as a starting fantasy QB this year, but that's exactly what he's being drafted as. His ceiling is higher than that of Michael Vick's thanks to his better work ethic and leadership qualities, but much like Vick, the weapons around him are subpar at best. He'll make up for the lack of passing yards with the rushing numbers, but exactly how much he'll be able to make up is the question. It should at least keep him fairly consistent from week to week. With a WR corp that includes the talented but struggling Brandon Jones, the aging Eric Moulds, and the inexperienced Roydell Williams, things don't look good. Bo Scaife is a solid TE and possibly the most reliable receiver on the team. Young has incredible upside for the future, but his surrounding cast will continue to limit his present upside. The only thing that holds me back from completely avoiding him is his incredible ability to prove all doubters wrong at every level.
8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value. He's being drafted as a fringe starter, and I think that's his downside this season. Arizona's new coaching staff is from the old Pittsburgh regime under Bill Cowher, so while they'll work to build around the running game, there's just too much offensive talent here in the passing game not to use it. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin form the most physically talented WR duo in the NFL, and Bryant Johnson has been an adequate 3rd WR. They don't have much in the way of TEs, but the Steeler's offense under Ken Wisenhunt severely under-used Heath Miller, so it's not much of a loss. Edgerrin James is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield. Leinart should take a step forward this year, and he has a smart offensive mind that's backing him. It remains to be seen how stubborn Wisenhunt will be with the running game this year given the questionable offensive line to see exactly how much Leinart will throw, which directly correlates to fantasy value. Still, there's a lot to like here.
9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value. He's also being drafted as a fringe starter, and I also believe that's his downside this season. Shanahan immediately trusted Cutler more than Plummer last year, and he threw for 2 TDs in his first 4 starts. Javon Walker is one of the game's best deep threats, and Cutler has a cannon for an arm. The only problem is the 2nd WR slot. Brandon Marshall is immensley talented, but he's raw and still learning the NFL game. Rod Smith will start the season on the PUP list, and that will hurt as having a savvy veteran WR as a safety valve is a great thing for a QB. The Broncos signed Daniel Graham, and while he's a blocking specialist, he's still a solid option as a receiver. Tony Scheffler will play plenty in 2 TE sets, and Cutler showed off his chemistry with Scheffler down the stretch last year. Shannahan has a great system and I'd be surprised if Cutler didn't finish in the top 12 QBs at least come year's end, with the possibility of a huge leap still an option.
9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value. His value fell from last year when many expected him to become among the fantasy elite. I believe last year is his The Giants remained among the biggest jokes in football this offseason as it was marred by Tiki's retirement and slams against the team, Burress and Shockey spending too much time training on their own instead of building a chemistry with their QB, and the loss of LT Luke Pettigout who arguably received more criticism than he deserved as he was solid protecting Manning's blindside. Eli returns with a new LT, a new RB in Brandon Jacobs who is underrated in the passing game, and hopefully a new attitude towards being a leader. Burress remains a tremendous deep option, although he's still not a well-rounded WR. Toomer returns from a torn ACL, but at his age it remains to be seen how well he'll recover. A underrated addition was the drafting of WR Steve Smith, who will eventually turn into a very good NFL receiver and a reliable target for Manning. Toomer and Smith will be the keys to what sort of upside Manning has the season, but it figures to continue getting better for Eli.
10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season. Throw last year out the window as it was ruined by his motorcycle accident. Former offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt and former line coach Russ Grimm stated that they believed the Steelers rushed Big Ben back onto the field when he wasn't ready, and I think his performance proves that. Given Roethlisberger was a very efficient QB his first two seasons, his performance last year as an interception-prone QB with a 75.4 QB rating was a complete anomaly. He had posted 2 straight seasons with a QB rating right at 98 prior to that, so it's painfully clear that his head was not in the game last season. Big Ben was a top 5 fantasy QB during the last 12 weeks of the 2006 season, amazingly enough. Mike Tomlin is the new head coach and Bruce Arians takes over as offensive coordinator. Gone are the grind-it-out days of the Cowher regime...Arians loves to spread the field and throw the ball. With the steady Hines Ward, the emerging Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington, and the under-utilized Heath Miller at TE, the Steelers have quality receiving options, and Willie Parker will be thrown to more as well. With a pick this late, there's nothing but upside here.
1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year. I'm not a fan of taking a QB this early, especially this year when there are less RBs with 300 carry potential due to the growing popularity of the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) strategy. This ADP might be inflated by people who take him very early, however. I would not want to take Manning over clearcut starters like Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs due to the reason I outlined above. All of those RBs have top 10 potential. I understand the certainty that you're paying for with him, but QB is usually deeper than most people think, and if you're starting only one QB versus 2 RBs (possibly 3 with a flex), you need those RBs to field a strong lineup. I would happily take Manning once you get down to the Shaun Alexander (although he goes way higher than I'd take him), Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson type RBs, however. Manning is a better bet than those guys who are available around the same time. I'd also take Manning over every WR. That being said, I won't own him in any league this year thanks to his high price tag.
3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning. If you want to take a QB this high, I'd happily take Palmer in the 3rd round. He's 100% this year after having that time to recover from the knee injury suffered in the 2005 playoffs, and his much stronger 2nd half last year proved it once he finally got comfortable again. Moving forward, I think it'll be hard to tell Palmer and Manning apart stats-wise, which makes Palmer a much better pick. His WRs are just as talented as Manning's are. Imagine having LT or Steven Jackson plus Palmer. Now that's a foundation.
3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year. Brady plays in a very spread-the-wealth offense, and given that he's surrounded by the best talent of his career with the additions of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, plus TE Ben Watson, he's never had so many weapons, especially downfield receivers. There's a good chance that he'll turn in one of the finest seasons of his career and he could give Manning and Palmer a run for their money, but he's going to have to finish #3 to warrant this pick. He's a solid option here, although I'd prefer him a bit better in the 4th round.
3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year. He had one of the most surprising rebound seasons in recent memory last year, including an incredible stretch of 5 straight 300+ yard passing games. He's going to have to repeat his career season in order to justify that ADP, and it's hard to ask someone to have 2 consecutive career seasons. Joe Horn is gone, and while he was injured last year and the Saints were in too much of a groove to notice, don't underestimate the savvy veteran's impact on the team. I know Colston filled in just fine for a while, but it's a lot to ask a 2nd year WR to become the focal point of the passing game and stay among the NFL's best. You're not getting any value here as his ceiling will be the only thing that makes him worth taking this high. Plus with Bush's better knowledge of how to run at the NFL level, the Saints should take advantage of their talented RBs to keep their suspect defense off the field a bit more.
4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year. He had a terrific year last year, finally staying healthy for 16 games, and he thrived in Linehan's offense. He didn't throw an INT until week 6. The Rams added Drew Bennett to the slot, and they also added Randy McMichael as a passing game presence at the TE position. The Rams were pass-happy in the redzone, although given the effectiveness of Steven Jackson down the stretch around the goal line, I don't expect them to throw quite so much around the goal line this year. Still, with a great pass catching RB, added weapons in the passing game, and a solid offensive system, Bulger looks set to repeat last season's numbers. A warning though...don't forget about Holt's troublesome knee. He's the key to this powerful offense, and Bulger would go from solid value to a bit over-valued if Holt continues to struggle with that injury.
4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value. Last year, we saw Carson Palmer start off cold until he became re-adjusted to the pocket. We also saw Daunte Culpepper look absolutely brutal before shutting it down, but his knee injury was a lot more serious than McNabb's. All preseason reports on McNabb have been good as he looks comfortable in the pocket and his throws look strong. He was the #1 fantasy player last year before going down, putting up a huge season like what happened to him back in 2002. I doubt he runs anywhere close to what he usually does, but even as just a passer, he's arguably a top 5 QB. Westbrook is amazing out of the backfield, Reggie Brown has another year of experience, and they replaced the injury-prone Stallworth with an equally fast, smarter, and more durable Kevin Curtis. Expecting a slow start isn't a bad idea, but he'll be just fine when it counts. Make sure to take a backup higher than the other top guys if you select him due to the injury history.
6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year. Kitna looked like a more injury-prone Marc Bulger last season. He makes too many stupid throws and is careless with the ball in the pocket at times, but he threw for a ton of yards and should find the endzone plenty this year. Kevin Jones is probably headed to the PUP list and is replaced by Tatum Bell. Bell is far less reliable out of the backfield, so expect even more passing. The Lions added Calvin Johnson, who is arguably the most physically gifted WR to come out of college. His blend of size and speed is unheard of, and he's a hard-working, smart player to boot. Expect a much smaller learning curve for him as compared to most rookies, and he'll immediately become a huge upgrade opposite the equally-talented Roy Williams. Furrey, a wonderful safety valve, was re-signed and moves to the slot which suits his skills much better. With the upgraded talent and the reliance on the passing game, only health with prevent Kitna from putting up a big year.
6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year. He's coming off a disasterous season, but fantasy owners obviously expect a rebound by drafting him as the 8th QB off the board. The Seattle system is very good for producing solid fantasy numbers. While having Deion Branch in their offense will definitely help improve the chemistry between him and Hasselbeck, he'll be flanked by D.J. Hackett. Branch and Hackett are good system receivers, but they just don't possess the type of talent that Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson had. Alexander is non-existant out of the backfield in the passing game, and Marcus Pollard is an aging, decent option at TE. I think Hasselbeck will be solid, but I don't see any upside here.
7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year. Fantasy owners must not think he was for real last season, or else he'd be going ahead of Hasselbeck. He easily put up top 10 numbers in the 12 weeks that he played, and he's only going to get better. Terrell Owens remains a bit of a risk as a #1 WR, but he should drop less passes this year after fixing the torn tendon in his finger. He's still a monster in the redzone. Glenn is a solid #2, and while he's a big health risk, I believe Patrick Crayton can easily fill his role in the offense if necessary. Witten provides a very good TE in the passing game, and Barber is great out of the backfield. The weapons are there, and Romo should capitalize with a solid season. He also provides a bit of value on the ground as he's a very mobile QB despite not being fast.
7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued. He had an incredible first season that exceeded all expectations, but I don't think he has the talent around him at the WR position that will allow him to take the next step. LT is incredible out of the backfield, and Norv Turner loves throwing to his RBs. Antonio Gates is the best TE in football. Vincent Jackson is an emerging deep threat, but his all-around game needs work and he doesn't have much on-field experience yet. Rookie Craig Davis flanks him, and while his speed is great, his hands remain suspect, and he's replacing the reliable, if unspectacular Eric Parker who's out at least 6 weeks with a broken foot. He's a fairly solid choice, but like with Hasselbeck, I don't see much further upside.
8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued. I question him as a starting fantasy QB this year, but that's exactly what he's being drafted as. His ceiling is higher than that of Michael Vick's thanks to his better work ethic and leadership qualities, but much like Vick, the weapons around him are subpar at best. He'll make up for the lack of passing yards with the rushing numbers, but exactly how much he'll be able to make up is the question. It should at least keep him fairly consistent from week to week. With a WR corp that includes the talented but struggling Brandon Jones, the aging Eric Moulds, and the inexperienced Roydell Williams, things don't look good. Bo Scaife is a solid TE and possibly the most reliable receiver on the team. Young has incredible upside for the future, but his surrounding cast will continue to limit his present upside. The only thing that holds me back from completely avoiding him is his incredible ability to prove all doubters wrong at every level.
8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value. He's being drafted as a fringe starter, and I think that's his downside this season. Arizona's new coaching staff is from the old Pittsburgh regime under Bill Cowher, so while they'll work to build around the running game, there's just too much offensive talent here in the passing game not to use it. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin form the most physically talented WR duo in the NFL, and Bryant Johnson has been an adequate 3rd WR. They don't have much in the way of TEs, but the Steeler's offense under Ken Wisenhunt severely under-used Heath Miller, so it's not much of a loss. Edgerrin James is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield. Leinart should take a step forward this year, and he has a smart offensive mind that's backing him. It remains to be seen how stubborn Wisenhunt will be with the running game this year given the questionable offensive line to see exactly how much Leinart will throw, which directly correlates to fantasy value. Still, there's a lot to like here.
9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value. He's also being drafted as a fringe starter, and I also believe that's his downside this season. Shanahan immediately trusted Cutler more than Plummer last year, and he threw for 2 TDs in his first 4 starts. Javon Walker is one of the game's best deep threats, and Cutler has a cannon for an arm. The only problem is the 2nd WR slot. Brandon Marshall is immensley talented, but he's raw and still learning the NFL game. Rod Smith will start the season on the PUP list, and that will hurt as having a savvy veteran WR as a safety valve is a great thing for a QB. The Broncos signed Daniel Graham, and while he's a blocking specialist, he's still a solid option as a receiver. Tony Scheffler will play plenty in 2 TE sets, and Cutler showed off his chemistry with Scheffler down the stretch last year. Shannahan has a great system and I'd be surprised if Cutler didn't finish in the top 12 QBs at least come year's end, with the possibility of a huge leap still an option.
9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value. His value fell from last year when many expected him to become among the fantasy elite. I believe last year is his The Giants remained among the biggest jokes in football this offseason as it was marred by Tiki's retirement and slams against the team, Burress and Shockey spending too much time training on their own instead of building a chemistry with their QB, and the loss of LT Luke Pettigout who arguably received more criticism than he deserved as he was solid protecting Manning's blindside. Eli returns with a new LT, a new RB in Brandon Jacobs who is underrated in the passing game, and hopefully a new attitude towards being a leader. Burress remains a tremendous deep option, although he's still not a well-rounded WR. Toomer returns from a torn ACL, but at his age it remains to be seen how well he'll recover. A underrated addition was the drafting of WR Steve Smith, who will eventually turn into a very good NFL receiver and a reliable target for Manning. Toomer and Smith will be the keys to what sort of upside Manning has the season, but it figures to continue getting better for Eli.
10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season. Throw last year out the window as it was ruined by his motorcycle accident. Former offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt and former line coach Russ Grimm stated that they believed the Steelers rushed Big Ben back onto the field when he wasn't ready, and I think his performance proves that. Given Roethlisberger was a very efficient QB his first two seasons, his performance last year as an interception-prone QB with a 75.4 QB rating was a complete anomaly. He had posted 2 straight seasons with a QB rating right at 98 prior to that, so it's painfully clear that his head was not in the game last season. Big Ben was a top 5 fantasy QB during the last 12 weeks of the 2006 season, amazingly enough. Mike Tomlin is the new head coach and Bruce Arians takes over as offensive coordinator. Gone are the grind-it-out days of the Cowher regime...Arians loves to spread the field and throw the ball. With the steady Hines Ward, the emerging Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington, and the under-utilized Heath Miller at TE, the Steelers have quality receiving options, and Willie Parker will be thrown to more as well. With a pick this late, there's nothing but upside here.
Gary Sheffield To The DL
The Detroit Tigers will place OF Gary Sheffield on the DL with shoulder soreness.
He's been battling problems on and off with it since injuring it while attempting a diving catch a while ago. He's been miserable since the AS break, hitting .220 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 19 R in 32 games.
Fantasy Impact: Sheffield was a fantasy monster in the 1st half prior to the injury, but he clearly has not been the same since. Given the value he's provided his owners, odds are your team is doing pretty well if you drafted him, so this is a big loss. He's been mostly DH'ing this year, which was helped keep his brittle body healthy for most of it, but unfortunately one of the 14 games in the field has led to his demise. Nobody knows if you'll get anything out of him if he does come back. Mike Cameron still isn't owned in as many leagues as he should be, so you could look to him for help. Jacque Jones has been on fire and might not be owned either, so take a look his way as well. Jonny Gomes and Aubrey Huff are other options, Gomes being underrated and Huff being very hot at the plate as of late. If you play Sheffield at first, you could try Kotchman, who would help you in AVG, R, and RBI.
He's been battling problems on and off with it since injuring it while attempting a diving catch a while ago. He's been miserable since the AS break, hitting .220 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 19 R in 32 games.
Fantasy Impact: Sheffield was a fantasy monster in the 1st half prior to the injury, but he clearly has not been the same since. Given the value he's provided his owners, odds are your team is doing pretty well if you drafted him, so this is a big loss. He's been mostly DH'ing this year, which was helped keep his brittle body healthy for most of it, but unfortunately one of the 14 games in the field has led to his demise. Nobody knows if you'll get anything out of him if he does come back. Mike Cameron still isn't owned in as many leagues as he should be, so you could look to him for help. Jacque Jones has been on fire and might not be owned either, so take a look his way as well. Jonny Gomes and Aubrey Huff are other options, Gomes being underrated and Huff being very hot at the plate as of late. If you play Sheffield at first, you could try Kotchman, who would help you in AVG, R, and RBI.
Goodbye Daily Baseball Updates, Hello Daily Football Updates
Well that's now two weekends in a row where I haven't posted anything, but I was hardly around a computer. I have decided that I will quit doing daily player updates for baseball over the rest of the season. First of all, I don't have the time I'd like to have to write about both sports simultaneously as in depth as I'd like to. I have to pick one to focus on. Given that, like I've mentioned before, everyone's fantasy basebally trading deadlines have kicked in, and the waiver wire doesn't produce much towards the end of the season. I will note September callups that might have value as Felix Hernandez was very valuable 2 years ago when he was called up, for example. I will still post injury news as it relates to baseball as well, but going through noting hot streaks and slumps won't do you much...you have to put your best lineup out there every day at this point and hope for a nice closing stretch from your team. Hopefully I helped get you into a position to win your league. With that being said, I'd rather help people prep for the football season.
Tomorrow I will start posting football depth chart and injury updates as necessary. It's time to get primed for the pigskin season as the baseball season comes into its final month, and I pledge to provide as much NFL FF knowledge and news analysis as I can.
Tomorrow I will start posting football depth chart and injury updates as necessary. It's time to get primed for the pigskin season as the baseball season comes into its final month, and I pledge to provide as much NFL FF knowledge and news analysis as I can.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Edgar Renteria To The DL
The Atlanta Braves placed SS Edgar Renteria on the DL with a sprained ankle.
He tried to come back from it too soon, and now he's headed to the DL.
Fantasy Impact: Throw him on the DL, and look for guys like Julio Lugo and Felipe Lopez on your waiver wire. Lopez has been a disappointment, but with 4 HR and 5 SB over the past month, perhaps he can give your team a little production while Renteria is out.
He tried to come back from it too soon, and now he's headed to the DL.
Fantasy Impact: Throw him on the DL, and look for guys like Julio Lugo and Felipe Lopez on your waiver wire. Lopez has been a disappointment, but with 4 HR and 5 SB over the past month, perhaps he can give your team a little production while Renteria is out.
Cole Hamels To The DL
The Philadelphia Phillies placed SP Cole Hamels on the DL with a strained left elbow.
Not good. The MRI results showed no ligament damage, so while Tommy John surgery is not needed, the Phillies really need to manage his arm better than they did with Brett Myers. This is one of the game's top young pitchers, and while the Phillies are in a playoff race with Utley hopefully back soon, they can't risk the future here for the present.
Fantasy Impact: Throw him on your DL slot, but prepare to be without him the rest of the year as a precaution. Your best bet right now is probably to selectively use spot starters as I imagine any starter worth a damn is probably already owned. Ervin Santana is someone to keep a close eye on, however.
Not good. The MRI results showed no ligament damage, so while Tommy John surgery is not needed, the Phillies really need to manage his arm better than they did with Brett Myers. This is one of the game's top young pitchers, and while the Phillies are in a playoff race with Utley hopefully back soon, they can't risk the future here for the present.
Fantasy Impact: Throw him on your DL slot, but prepare to be without him the rest of the year as a precaution. Your best bet right now is probably to selectively use spot starters as I imagine any starter worth a damn is probably already owned. Ervin Santana is someone to keep a close eye on, however.
Wednesday - Our First 30 Run Game In 100+ Years
Esteban Loaiza - 7 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (1). Loaiza pitched for the first time this year after returning from knee surgery, and he pitched quite well. He doesn't have the stuff necessary to get hitters out unless his velocity is up, and it was apparently up yesterday. He could have fringe mixed league value in the final month, but I'd make him prove his worth in his next start.
A.J. Burnett - 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. A Matt Stairs error opened up a 4 run floodgate in the 7th inning. Had that error not been committed, we might have been looking at 7 scoreless innings and a win. Burnett has pitched great since returning, and his pitch counts has remained reasonable, so hopefully he'll finish strong.
Jack Cust - 1/3, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (21). Cust has hit .333 with 4 HR and 15 RBI in August, turning in one of his finest months in this surprise season. His K rate remains at an alarming level with 20 K in 19 G this month, but with 20 BB, he's evening things out. He remains a solid 2 catagory, borderline 3 catagory OF worth owning in all leagues.
Carlos Silva - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (10). Silva has been on fire this month, posting a 1.61 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. His K rate remains bad with only 17 K in 28 IP, and with a WHIP no less than 1.23 and usually in the 1.40 in other months along with his career, he's only an option if you want to ride out a hot streak. Don't count on him keeping this up.
Michael Cuddyer - 1/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, GS (13). With a .276 AVG and only 13 HR, Cuddyer has not matched his breakout season last year. Now that he's hitting lower in a suddenly weak Twins offense, he's not much of a fantasy option in mixed leagues.
Paul Konerko - 1/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (25). Back to back HR games for Konerko who has been the Konerko of old after a slow start the first few months. He'll likely reach 30 HR again barring injury, but with only 69 RBI right now and the lack of anyone getting on base in front of him, his 4th straight 100 RBI season won't happen. He's been a fantasy disappointment this year between the slow start and weak lineup around him.
Kason Gabbard - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (6). Hard to lose when given 30 runs of support. In fact, I'd argue it's damn near impossible. He's been surprising so far for the Rangers, posting a 3.51 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP since coming over from Boston in the trade for Eric Gagne. He'll likely settle in as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Rangers in the upcoming years, but his lack of Ks and average WHIP makes him a poor bet for the final month.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 4/6, 5 R, 7 RBI, 2 HR (4). He hasn't been as good as I thought he would be in Texas so far, but he sure made up for a lot of problems with his monster game yesterday in the 30-3 blowout. He's hitting .219 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, and 12 R in 19 G with the Rangers so far, but obviously those are mostly padded by last night's performance. Still, those are solid overall numbers minus the AVG for a C, so I'd stick with him if you're still starting him.
C.J. Wilson - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, SV (7). Well, I missed the boat here. Benoit was the stated closed everywhere until Wilson started saving games, and even then many outlets stated that it was due to matchups. There's no question now that Wilson is the Ranger's closer for the rest of the year, and he's been excellent since taking over the role, with 11 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, and 11 K.
Justin Verlander - 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Bonderman must have taught him how to pitch in the 2nd half. Joking aside, he's been horrible after the AS break, posting a 5.83 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP with a .286 BAA to boot. He's very likely worn down from pitching deep into last year when he wasn't used to it, and then following that up with a full season this year. I've been warning about this for a while, but it's definitely come true. Unfortunately it's too late for those who still own him to do anything about it other than hope he'll finish strong.
Carlos Guillen - 2/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (17). He's at .305, 17 HR, 82 RBI, 68 R, and 11 SB on the year. He's in the ballpark in AVG, will probably surpass HR and RBI, but will fall a bit short on R and SB this year, although he's spent far more time this year hitting deeper into the order. Considering how close he is to last year's numbers and how far he fell in many drafts this year, he's been a steal.
Derek Lowe - 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (10). Much better. Hopefully Lowe has finally overcome his back injury and can resume pitching like he was prior to it.
Matt Kemp - 4/6, 3 R, 2 RBI. He's hitting .335 so far this year, albeit in limited time with 64 G. He's hit 8 HR, 30 RBI, 32 R, and 5 SB, showing what he can do given playing time. He'll likely be a nice late round target next year as his talent definitely supports his numbers so far, minus the AVG. His K:BB ratio of 43:11 doesn't show that he's ready to hit .300 at the major league level yet, but he's obviously still growing.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K. Another strong start from Dice-K, but the walks continue to haunt him. He limited the hits, but the lack of offensive support cost him a win.
B.J. Upton - 1/4, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (18). His AVG has taken the inevitable nosedive this month as he's only hitting .224 in August, but he continues to provide surprising power with 4 HR and 11 RBI this month, plus 11 R. He hasn't stolen a base since June, barely trying by going 0/2 since then, so don't count on any SB from him the rest of the way as the groin injury that put him on the DL is clearly preventing him from running. Still, the power is keeping him plenty valuable.
Bronson Arroyo - 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (7). It wasn't pretty, but his owners will take it. Arroyo continues to struggle pitching at home, but he managed to get out of a bases loaded, 1 out jam by getting Teixeira and McCann out.
Andruw Jones - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (24). He came back strong with a big July of .263, 8 HR, 23 RBI, and 24 R, but has again slumped in August with a line of .211, 4 HR, 13 RBI, and 11 R. Hopefully he has a solid September to make my buy low suggestion look better.
Jake Peavy - 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 11 K, W (14). His command failed him, but he pitched around the baserunners and picked up the win by turning in a very solid effort otherwise. He's won 5 of his last 6 starts, including 3 double digit K games as he's back on top of his form.
Jose Reyes - 1/5, 1 R, 3 SB (67). Reyes has gone back on a ridiculous tear on the basepaths, stealing 13 bases in his last 10 games to give him 17 already this month. With a week left, he should easily post his highest monthly SB total this year.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 K, 1 SV (12). 5 consecutive scoreless inning save conversions for Lidge since his 4 ER meltdown against the Brewers earlier this month. It seems as though he's close to being an elite closer once again.
Albert Pujols - 2/4, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (30). That's now 5 straight games with a HR for Pujols who's heating up at exactly the right time for his owners.
Jeremy Hermida - 1/3, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (12). Hermida has been hitting great since the AS break, posting a line of .340 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, and 12 R in 37 G. Unfortunately due to his spot in the batting order, the R/RBI are quite low given what he's been doing at the plate. Give him another look if your OF is under-performing.
Tom Gorzelanny - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (12). A very surprising and quality performance from Tom G in Colorado against a powerful offense. He bounced back nicely after getting hit hard by the Phillies his last time out.
Jason Bay - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (19). He's worthless, despite the nice game last night. He's shown no signs of turning it around for any period of time, so I'm very tempted to bench him for the rest of the year barring a miracle hot streak in September from this turd.
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (14). Sadly, the scoreless inning streak ended in the first inning, but Webb continued to pitch like the ace that he has become and turned in a great start for his 6th consecutive win.
Chris Young - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (26). His AVG in August is the 2nd worst month of his season at .209, but he's banged out 7 more HR this month. Unfortunately since he leads off, that's only equated to 8 RBI and 13 R. It's a shame the Diamondbacks haven't moved him into an RBI spot since he's really only hitting for power to help the team, although he does have 6 SB this month as well. Still, he could be running while hitting in the middle of the order as well.
Andy Pettitte - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, W (11). One of his best starts of the year, versus the Angels no less. He's won 5 in a row, and has pitched very well in the process. He'll likely be inconsistent still, but at least he's helping fantasy teams a lot right now.
John Lackey - 7 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Bad start, but it was the Yankees. Lackey failed in his bid to become the first 16 game winner in MLB.
Bobby Abreu - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (15). He's taken his AVG all the way up to .288 on the year as he continues to have a big 2nd half. He's hitting .340 with 10 HR, 46 RBI, 20 R, and 3 SB after the AS break.
Rich Hill - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. That's back-to-back great outings from Hill, who is hopefully turning the corner for a solid stretch run. Both the Cubs and his fantasy owners alike need a nice final month from the youngster.
Barry Zito - 8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. Amazing what happens when you don't walk everyone. Zito has dominated the Cubs both times he's faced them recently, so it'd be nice to see him put up a line like that against a team that isn't inept against LHP. It's a start, and perhaps he could provide mixed league value in the final month.
A.J. Burnett - 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. A Matt Stairs error opened up a 4 run floodgate in the 7th inning. Had that error not been committed, we might have been looking at 7 scoreless innings and a win. Burnett has pitched great since returning, and his pitch counts has remained reasonable, so hopefully he'll finish strong.
Jack Cust - 1/3, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (21). Cust has hit .333 with 4 HR and 15 RBI in August, turning in one of his finest months in this surprise season. His K rate remains at an alarming level with 20 K in 19 G this month, but with 20 BB, he's evening things out. He remains a solid 2 catagory, borderline 3 catagory OF worth owning in all leagues.
Carlos Silva - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (10). Silva has been on fire this month, posting a 1.61 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. His K rate remains bad with only 17 K in 28 IP, and with a WHIP no less than 1.23 and usually in the 1.40 in other months along with his career, he's only an option if you want to ride out a hot streak. Don't count on him keeping this up.
Michael Cuddyer - 1/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, GS (13). With a .276 AVG and only 13 HR, Cuddyer has not matched his breakout season last year. Now that he's hitting lower in a suddenly weak Twins offense, he's not much of a fantasy option in mixed leagues.
Paul Konerko - 1/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (25). Back to back HR games for Konerko who has been the Konerko of old after a slow start the first few months. He'll likely reach 30 HR again barring injury, but with only 69 RBI right now and the lack of anyone getting on base in front of him, his 4th straight 100 RBI season won't happen. He's been a fantasy disappointment this year between the slow start and weak lineup around him.
Kason Gabbard - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (6). Hard to lose when given 30 runs of support. In fact, I'd argue it's damn near impossible. He's been surprising so far for the Rangers, posting a 3.51 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP since coming over from Boston in the trade for Eric Gagne. He'll likely settle in as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Rangers in the upcoming years, but his lack of Ks and average WHIP makes him a poor bet for the final month.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 4/6, 5 R, 7 RBI, 2 HR (4). He hasn't been as good as I thought he would be in Texas so far, but he sure made up for a lot of problems with his monster game yesterday in the 30-3 blowout. He's hitting .219 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, and 12 R in 19 G with the Rangers so far, but obviously those are mostly padded by last night's performance. Still, those are solid overall numbers minus the AVG for a C, so I'd stick with him if you're still starting him.
C.J. Wilson - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, SV (7). Well, I missed the boat here. Benoit was the stated closed everywhere until Wilson started saving games, and even then many outlets stated that it was due to matchups. There's no question now that Wilson is the Ranger's closer for the rest of the year, and he's been excellent since taking over the role, with 11 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, and 11 K.
Justin Verlander - 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Bonderman must have taught him how to pitch in the 2nd half. Joking aside, he's been horrible after the AS break, posting a 5.83 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP with a .286 BAA to boot. He's very likely worn down from pitching deep into last year when he wasn't used to it, and then following that up with a full season this year. I've been warning about this for a while, but it's definitely come true. Unfortunately it's too late for those who still own him to do anything about it other than hope he'll finish strong.
Carlos Guillen - 2/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (17). He's at .305, 17 HR, 82 RBI, 68 R, and 11 SB on the year. He's in the ballpark in AVG, will probably surpass HR and RBI, but will fall a bit short on R and SB this year, although he's spent far more time this year hitting deeper into the order. Considering how close he is to last year's numbers and how far he fell in many drafts this year, he's been a steal.
Derek Lowe - 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (10). Much better. Hopefully Lowe has finally overcome his back injury and can resume pitching like he was prior to it.
Matt Kemp - 4/6, 3 R, 2 RBI. He's hitting .335 so far this year, albeit in limited time with 64 G. He's hit 8 HR, 30 RBI, 32 R, and 5 SB, showing what he can do given playing time. He'll likely be a nice late round target next year as his talent definitely supports his numbers so far, minus the AVG. His K:BB ratio of 43:11 doesn't show that he's ready to hit .300 at the major league level yet, but he's obviously still growing.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K. Another strong start from Dice-K, but the walks continue to haunt him. He limited the hits, but the lack of offensive support cost him a win.
B.J. Upton - 1/4, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (18). His AVG has taken the inevitable nosedive this month as he's only hitting .224 in August, but he continues to provide surprising power with 4 HR and 11 RBI this month, plus 11 R. He hasn't stolen a base since June, barely trying by going 0/2 since then, so don't count on any SB from him the rest of the way as the groin injury that put him on the DL is clearly preventing him from running. Still, the power is keeping him plenty valuable.
Bronson Arroyo - 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (7). It wasn't pretty, but his owners will take it. Arroyo continues to struggle pitching at home, but he managed to get out of a bases loaded, 1 out jam by getting Teixeira and McCann out.
Andruw Jones - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (24). He came back strong with a big July of .263, 8 HR, 23 RBI, and 24 R, but has again slumped in August with a line of .211, 4 HR, 13 RBI, and 11 R. Hopefully he has a solid September to make my buy low suggestion look better.
Jake Peavy - 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 11 K, W (14). His command failed him, but he pitched around the baserunners and picked up the win by turning in a very solid effort otherwise. He's won 5 of his last 6 starts, including 3 double digit K games as he's back on top of his form.
Jose Reyes - 1/5, 1 R, 3 SB (67). Reyes has gone back on a ridiculous tear on the basepaths, stealing 13 bases in his last 10 games to give him 17 already this month. With a week left, he should easily post his highest monthly SB total this year.
Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 K, 1 SV (12). 5 consecutive scoreless inning save conversions for Lidge since his 4 ER meltdown against the Brewers earlier this month. It seems as though he's close to being an elite closer once again.
Albert Pujols - 2/4, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (30). That's now 5 straight games with a HR for Pujols who's heating up at exactly the right time for his owners.
Jeremy Hermida - 1/3, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (12). Hermida has been hitting great since the AS break, posting a line of .340 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, and 12 R in 37 G. Unfortunately due to his spot in the batting order, the R/RBI are quite low given what he's been doing at the plate. Give him another look if your OF is under-performing.
Tom Gorzelanny - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (12). A very surprising and quality performance from Tom G in Colorado against a powerful offense. He bounced back nicely after getting hit hard by the Phillies his last time out.
Jason Bay - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (19). He's worthless, despite the nice game last night. He's shown no signs of turning it around for any period of time, so I'm very tempted to bench him for the rest of the year barring a miracle hot streak in September from this turd.
Brandon Webb - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (14). Sadly, the scoreless inning streak ended in the first inning, but Webb continued to pitch like the ace that he has become and turned in a great start for his 6th consecutive win.
Chris Young - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (26). His AVG in August is the 2nd worst month of his season at .209, but he's banged out 7 more HR this month. Unfortunately since he leads off, that's only equated to 8 RBI and 13 R. It's a shame the Diamondbacks haven't moved him into an RBI spot since he's really only hitting for power to help the team, although he does have 6 SB this month as well. Still, he could be running while hitting in the middle of the order as well.
Andy Pettitte - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, W (11). One of his best starts of the year, versus the Angels no less. He's won 5 in a row, and has pitched very well in the process. He'll likely be inconsistent still, but at least he's helping fantasy teams a lot right now.
John Lackey - 7 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Bad start, but it was the Yankees. Lackey failed in his bid to become the first 16 game winner in MLB.
Bobby Abreu - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (15). He's taken his AVG all the way up to .288 on the year as he continues to have a big 2nd half. He's hitting .340 with 10 HR, 46 RBI, 20 R, and 3 SB after the AS break.
Rich Hill - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. That's back-to-back great outings from Hill, who is hopefully turning the corner for a solid stretch run. Both the Cubs and his fantasy owners alike need a nice final month from the youngster.
Barry Zito - 8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. Amazing what happens when you don't walk everyone. Zito has dominated the Cubs both times he's faced them recently, so it'd be nice to see him put up a line like that against a team that isn't inept against LHP. It's a start, and perhaps he could provide mixed league value in the final month.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Tuesday's Action: A 10 RBI Game and Tulo Rules
OK, when I promised more updates yesterday, I forgot about the softball team outing after work. Here we are, back on track.
Brett Myers - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (12). He's been great since returning from the DL, allowing 3 ER in 10 2/3 IP, sporting a 13:3 K:BB ratio in the process. He's definitely back as an elite closer, and expect him to stay that way while he's healthy.
Ryan Howard - 2/4, 1 R, SB (1). Howard, the big power/well, power threat, finally stole his first base of the season last night. He's on a roll right now on the basepaths, so expect about 0 more SB over the rest of the season.
Russell Martin - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (15). He's definitely been quiet recently, and outside of his 2 HR game and then his 2 SB game, he hasn't offered up much production this month. He had been incredibly consistent before then, so it's his first prolonged slump of the year. Expect a nice finish if he hasn't worn down too much behind the plate.
Fausto Carmona - 8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Incredible performance from Carmona last night against the Tigers, but some jerk named Jurrjens had to 1 hit his offense and give him the loss. He's taken his WHIP down to 1.20, but his 3.11 ERA still doesn't match. He's been delaying it by pitching great the last two outings, but he's probably due for a correction before the end of the year. You can't bench him, though.
Jhonny Peralta - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (18). He's been real quiet in August, hitting .236 with only 2 HR and 6 RBI. Hopefully he'll get things turned back around and heat up at the plate...he only has 15 RBI over the past 2 months.
Magglio Ordonez - 1/3, 1 R. 1 RBI, HR (23). Boy was I wrong here. Ordonez has gone back to killing the ball, hitting .370 with 7 HR and 23 RBI this month. He has continued his improbable run back to stud fantasy OF this season, and has posted an amazing 111 RBI so far this year.
Erik Bedard - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, W (14). Whatever he did last offseason, let's hope he does it again. His amazing season continues, and he's only posted one start allowing more than 3 ER since April. He's been absolutely incredible.
Miguel Tejada - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (12). Tejada has only hit .268 this month after returning from a broken wrist, but he's displayed plenty of power with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 14 R scored. He's gone back to having solid fantasy value as a SS in mixed leagues.
Dan Haren - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, W (14). A bit unlucky to give up 4 ER only allowing 6 H, but when 3 of his hits are HR, this will happen. He's been mediocre in the 2nd half in the ratio department (3.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), allowing 58 H in 50 IP. However, he's avoided getting blown up, and he's still provided 4 W and 46 K in 50 IP.
Huston Street - 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K, SV (12). Street has been awesome this month, allowing 1 ER in 11 IP with 17 K, 5 H, and 1 BB. He's also back to being an elite closer and will provide great value to those who stayed with him through the injury.
Frank Thomas - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR (21). Thomas had a brutal May, but he's been very solid since then, giving us his best month in August with a .309 AVG, 5 HR, and 22 RBI. He's mostly a 3 catagory player as the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup doesn't drive in many runs, but he's been very good in those 3 catagories.
Jon Papelbon - 1 1/3 IP, 3 K, SV (30). This is the 2nd time in 3 appearances that Papelbon has gone over an inning for a save, and hopefully that's not the start of a trend down the stretch. One of the reasons that the Red Sox believe he had shoulder problems last year was the excessive multiple inning saves thanks to their leaky bullpen, and with Gagne pitching horribly since joining the team, he's been asked to do a bit more. Hopefully they'll back off and keep him healthy when his owners need him the most.
Chris Young - 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Not only was this a bad start, but he left the start early with discomfort in his back and will miss at least a start. Odds are he came back too fast from his oblique injury he originally suffered back on July 24th, even though he had pitched successfully his last time out. As I've said before, these injuries are very tricky, and unfortunately his owners will be without him for a while. I hope you sold high on him when I suggested doing so around the AS break.
John Maine - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. His control problems continue to plague him, and he's not pitching around them like in the first half. You can think about benching him next time out, but I'd imagine he'll get things straightened out soon. That's 4 straight blah starts, however.
Carlos Beltran - 3/3, 1 R, 5 RBI, HR (25). Beltran is smoking, hitting .351 in August with 6 HR, 18 RBI, and 10 R in 10 games. Us Beltran owners look to be owning a hot Beltran at just the right time down the stretch. Hopefully he'll give us a big finish to make up for all the lost time this year.
Mike Cameron - 2/3, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (16). He's enjoying a solid August, hitting .265 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R, and 4 SB. He's hitting well recently, so pick him up if someone dropped him and you still have a hole in your OF. He goes through extreme hot/cold streaks, but he's very valuable when hot.
Brandon Phillips - 3/5, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (23). He's been incredibly consistent this year from month to month, spreading out his HR/SB contribution pretty equally. 23 HR and 25 SB will make him a 3rd round pick next year or thereabouts, at least.
Wandy Rodriguez - 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. Shocking that this came at home against the Nationals. Ignore it as an anomaly and continue starting him when he's at home unless it happens again next time out.
Ryan Zimmerman - 3/5, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (19). Zimmerman is back to his old self post-AS break, hitting .312 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, and 26 R in 38 G. He's provided solid fantasy value to those who waited out his power outage in April, and then his subpar AVG in the first half.
Scott Baker - 6 IP, 14 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. Hardly at his best, but that is one fine example of stranding baserunners. He's been pitching great for a while now, so stay with him as an end-of-the-rotation starter.
Adrian Beltre - 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (20). He'll never recapture the magic that lead to his huge contract year during his last season in a Dodgers uniform, but he's settled into a quality lower tier fantasy 3B in the middle of an underrated lineup.
Adam Wainwright - 6 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. A bit heavy on the hits, but overall another very solid outing from Wainwright, who's dramatically up his K rate since the start of July (53 K in 61 IP since), and is seeing the benefits of missing more bats. The Cardinals are starting to get hot and put pressure on the NL Central leading CUbs and Brewers, so expect more wins from Wainwright down the stretch if the team continues playing well, along with the vastly improved ratios (2.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) since the AS break.
Albert Pujols - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (29). 4 straight games with a HR. Here comes Pujols!
Javier Vazquez - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (11). Another great outing from Vazquez as he continues to pitch well. Unfortunately he won't make Sox fans forget about trading young OF sensation Chris Young in the deal to get him since Vazquez is over a year late in finally settling down and becoming a very good AL pitcher.
Jim Thome - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (21). Thome is working his way out of a huge slump during August. Considering he missed time with his aching back, it was likely the root cause of the problem. He's back hitting well again, so if he can manage his back down the stretch, expect a nice finish from big Jim. He's 8 HR away from the magical 500 HR mark.
Troy Tulowitski - 2/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (17). He's been huge in August, posting a .365 AVG with 5 HR, 20 RBI, and 12 R in 20 games. He has definitely arrived, and with his depressed stats thanks to a slow start, he's a candidate to be undervalued in drafts next year.
Dave Bush - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, W (10). He's been up and down, but he turned in a great start against the Diamondbacks last night. He really hasn't been very good this year, so only consider him as a spot starter against weaker offenses. He hasn't been able to limit the baserunners like last season.
Mike Mussina - 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. To say he pitched badly last night would be an understatement. He's been far more good than bad, so swallow this huge lump and keep using him.
Kelvim Escobar - 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (14). A rough outing for Escobar as well, but the offense provided him with 18 runs of support on his way to an easy win.
Garret Anderson - 4/6, 3 R, 10 RBI, 2 HR (8). What a career night for Anderson, but unfortunately it was probably accomplished on your waiver wire.
Howie Kendrick - 4/5, 3 R, 1 RBI. Need a 2B for your stretch run? Look no further. He's fully health for once now that his finger has healed a 2nd time, and he should provide a nice spark at the 2B position in the final month plus.
Tim Lincecum - 8 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. He was brilliant for 8 innings, but then allowed 3 consecutive hits and 1 run to start the 9th, and his bullpen pushed the other 2 runners home, plus 2 more. It's a shame he didn't get a win for his efforts, but he just wore down in the 9th and pitched an excellent ballgame.
Brett Myers - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (12). He's been great since returning from the DL, allowing 3 ER in 10 2/3 IP, sporting a 13:3 K:BB ratio in the process. He's definitely back as an elite closer, and expect him to stay that way while he's healthy.
Ryan Howard - 2/4, 1 R, SB (1). Howard, the big power/well, power threat, finally stole his first base of the season last night. He's on a roll right now on the basepaths, so expect about 0 more SB over the rest of the season.
Russell Martin - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (15). He's definitely been quiet recently, and outside of his 2 HR game and then his 2 SB game, he hasn't offered up much production this month. He had been incredibly consistent before then, so it's his first prolonged slump of the year. Expect a nice finish if he hasn't worn down too much behind the plate.
Fausto Carmona - 8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Incredible performance from Carmona last night against the Tigers, but some jerk named Jurrjens had to 1 hit his offense and give him the loss. He's taken his WHIP down to 1.20, but his 3.11 ERA still doesn't match. He's been delaying it by pitching great the last two outings, but he's probably due for a correction before the end of the year. You can't bench him, though.
Jhonny Peralta - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (18). He's been real quiet in August, hitting .236 with only 2 HR and 6 RBI. Hopefully he'll get things turned back around and heat up at the plate...he only has 15 RBI over the past 2 months.
Magglio Ordonez - 1/3, 1 R. 1 RBI, HR (23). Boy was I wrong here. Ordonez has gone back to killing the ball, hitting .370 with 7 HR and 23 RBI this month. He has continued his improbable run back to stud fantasy OF this season, and has posted an amazing 111 RBI so far this year.
Erik Bedard - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, W (14). Whatever he did last offseason, let's hope he does it again. His amazing season continues, and he's only posted one start allowing more than 3 ER since April. He's been absolutely incredible.
Miguel Tejada - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (12). Tejada has only hit .268 this month after returning from a broken wrist, but he's displayed plenty of power with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 14 R scored. He's gone back to having solid fantasy value as a SS in mixed leagues.
Dan Haren - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, W (14). A bit unlucky to give up 4 ER only allowing 6 H, but when 3 of his hits are HR, this will happen. He's been mediocre in the 2nd half in the ratio department (3.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), allowing 58 H in 50 IP. However, he's avoided getting blown up, and he's still provided 4 W and 46 K in 50 IP.
Huston Street - 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K, SV (12). Street has been awesome this month, allowing 1 ER in 11 IP with 17 K, 5 H, and 1 BB. He's also back to being an elite closer and will provide great value to those who stayed with him through the injury.
Frank Thomas - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR (21). Thomas had a brutal May, but he's been very solid since then, giving us his best month in August with a .309 AVG, 5 HR, and 22 RBI. He's mostly a 3 catagory player as the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup doesn't drive in many runs, but he's been very good in those 3 catagories.
Jon Papelbon - 1 1/3 IP, 3 K, SV (30). This is the 2nd time in 3 appearances that Papelbon has gone over an inning for a save, and hopefully that's not the start of a trend down the stretch. One of the reasons that the Red Sox believe he had shoulder problems last year was the excessive multiple inning saves thanks to their leaky bullpen, and with Gagne pitching horribly since joining the team, he's been asked to do a bit more. Hopefully they'll back off and keep him healthy when his owners need him the most.
Chris Young - 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Not only was this a bad start, but he left the start early with discomfort in his back and will miss at least a start. Odds are he came back too fast from his oblique injury he originally suffered back on July 24th, even though he had pitched successfully his last time out. As I've said before, these injuries are very tricky, and unfortunately his owners will be without him for a while. I hope you sold high on him when I suggested doing so around the AS break.
John Maine - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. His control problems continue to plague him, and he's not pitching around them like in the first half. You can think about benching him next time out, but I'd imagine he'll get things straightened out soon. That's 4 straight blah starts, however.
Carlos Beltran - 3/3, 1 R, 5 RBI, HR (25). Beltran is smoking, hitting .351 in August with 6 HR, 18 RBI, and 10 R in 10 games. Us Beltran owners look to be owning a hot Beltran at just the right time down the stretch. Hopefully he'll give us a big finish to make up for all the lost time this year.
Mike Cameron - 2/3, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (16). He's enjoying a solid August, hitting .265 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R, and 4 SB. He's hitting well recently, so pick him up if someone dropped him and you still have a hole in your OF. He goes through extreme hot/cold streaks, but he's very valuable when hot.
Brandon Phillips - 3/5, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (23). He's been incredibly consistent this year from month to month, spreading out his HR/SB contribution pretty equally. 23 HR and 25 SB will make him a 3rd round pick next year or thereabouts, at least.
Wandy Rodriguez - 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. Shocking that this came at home against the Nationals. Ignore it as an anomaly and continue starting him when he's at home unless it happens again next time out.
Ryan Zimmerman - 3/5, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (19). Zimmerman is back to his old self post-AS break, hitting .312 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, and 26 R in 38 G. He's provided solid fantasy value to those who waited out his power outage in April, and then his subpar AVG in the first half.
Scott Baker - 6 IP, 14 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. Hardly at his best, but that is one fine example of stranding baserunners. He's been pitching great for a while now, so stay with him as an end-of-the-rotation starter.
Adrian Beltre - 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (20). He'll never recapture the magic that lead to his huge contract year during his last season in a Dodgers uniform, but he's settled into a quality lower tier fantasy 3B in the middle of an underrated lineup.
Adam Wainwright - 6 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. A bit heavy on the hits, but overall another very solid outing from Wainwright, who's dramatically up his K rate since the start of July (53 K in 61 IP since), and is seeing the benefits of missing more bats. The Cardinals are starting to get hot and put pressure on the NL Central leading CUbs and Brewers, so expect more wins from Wainwright down the stretch if the team continues playing well, along with the vastly improved ratios (2.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) since the AS break.
Albert Pujols - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, HR (29). 4 straight games with a HR. Here comes Pujols!
Javier Vazquez - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (11). Another great outing from Vazquez as he continues to pitch well. Unfortunately he won't make Sox fans forget about trading young OF sensation Chris Young in the deal to get him since Vazquez is over a year late in finally settling down and becoming a very good AL pitcher.
Jim Thome - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (21). Thome is working his way out of a huge slump during August. Considering he missed time with his aching back, it was likely the root cause of the problem. He's back hitting well again, so if he can manage his back down the stretch, expect a nice finish from big Jim. He's 8 HR away from the magical 500 HR mark.
Troy Tulowitski - 2/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (17). He's been huge in August, posting a .365 AVG with 5 HR, 20 RBI, and 12 R in 20 games. He has definitely arrived, and with his depressed stats thanks to a slow start, he's a candidate to be undervalued in drafts next year.
Dave Bush - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, W (10). He's been up and down, but he turned in a great start against the Diamondbacks last night. He really hasn't been very good this year, so only consider him as a spot starter against weaker offenses. He hasn't been able to limit the baserunners like last season.
Mike Mussina - 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. To say he pitched badly last night would be an understatement. He's been far more good than bad, so swallow this huge lump and keep using him.
Kelvim Escobar - 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (14). A rough outing for Escobar as well, but the offense provided him with 18 runs of support on his way to an easy win.
Garret Anderson - 4/6, 3 R, 10 RBI, 2 HR (8). What a career night for Anderson, but unfortunately it was probably accomplished on your waiver wire.
Howie Kendrick - 4/5, 3 R, 1 RBI. Need a 2B for your stretch run? Look no further. He's fully health for once now that his finger has healed a 2nd time, and he should provide a nice spark at the 2B position in the final month plus.
Tim Lincecum - 8 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. He was brilliant for 8 innings, but then allowed 3 consecutive hits and 1 run to start the 9th, and his bullpen pushed the other 2 runners home, plus 2 more. It's a shame he didn't get a win for his efforts, but he just wore down in the 9th and pitched an excellent ballgame.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Apology, Plus Fantasy Football Prep
Between work obligations, plans for the weekend, and doing some research for my 3 upcoming fantasy football drafts, I obviously didn't get a chance to do anything on this site since last Thursday. I'll be back with the daily baseball updates tomorrow.
To be honest, there hasn't been much of note in baseball outside of the usual daily grind, and with the fantasy baseball trade deadlines likely past and the waiver wire about dry, there isn't a whole lot to do with your rosters other than pray you made the right moves along the way and feel comfortable with your roster come crunchtime in the last month. Hopefully I've helped you get there in some fashion, which was the whole point of me starting this blog. Once the season is over, I will go over all the sell high and buy low suggestions I've made and see how I did. There's always something to learn.
I'm very conflicted on giving fantasy football advice regarding specific players, but I did give a complete RB breakdown a couple weeks ago. The problem is that some of my friends that I play fantasy football with read my blog as good friends do, and I don't need them inside my head as our draft approaches the final weekend before the season starts. :)
I will say this though: simply going through "mass media" rankings won't get you anywhere, in all likelihood. The way to get ahead is to be smarter than the average player. Every "expert" out there gives you his top rankings for each position, and if you've seen one, you've seen them all. LT #1? Really? Wow, that dude's awesome. You have Chad Johnson in your top 5 WR? Well, there's something new. The fact is that the top 10 at each position has close to 50% turnover from year to year, and you're best served by avoiding the half that turns over. Most rankings don't take that into account...they likely mirror last year's top 10 with a few exciting young players mixed in. Which leads me to my list of things to know.
1) Average Draft Position (ADP). If you haven't used it before, make this your first year doing it. This gives you an idea of where players are going, and it's best to look at the most recent results prior to your draft to pick up on the latest trends. If someone is going at a certain location in a draft, take a minute to understand why he's there. Is it a player who experienced a career year? Is it a breakout youngster with the ability to do more? Is it an unproven player who is subject to too much hype? Is it a veteran player who's on the verge of wearing down? Has the player moved to a better/worse team? How has his team changed in the offseason? Factor everything in.
2) Know your draft position. Commissioners, I'm looking at you. I hate leagues that don't provide your position slightly ahead of time. Even if it's only a week, give your guys an advanced heads up as to where they're picking. It makes planning easier for everyone, and the draft spot selection process can be fun as well.
3) Throw out players that likely won't be available to you in the first few rounds. It goes without saying, really, but don't get into arguments over whether you like Larry Johnson or Frank Gore better if you pick 8th. Focus on the guys that will likely be available, but be prepared to pounce if someone slips too far.
4) Don't go in with a set strategy. You're going to hurt yourself if you go in saying "well, I want to go RB/RB" and stick with it. Say there's a huge RB run early on, and Manning makes it to you in the late 2nd round. Do you really want to take Cedric Benson over Peyton Manning because you went in wanting 2 RBs?
5) Pick a sleeper at each position. This somewhat ties into my last point. There's going to be a position you tackle later on in every draft. Whether it's your 3rd WR, your QB, whatever...have a guy picked at each position based on ADP that you wouldn't mind starting, but can get later in the draft. That way you're not scrambling if you take 4 RBs in the first 7-8 rounds because you liked who fell to you, but don't have a QB or TE yet.
6) Don't take a defense til late. OK, I know how the Bears defense paid off big for those who drafted them early, but Baltimore burned people who took them early the year before, and Carolina the year before that. I understand those who take the Bears high again this year thanks to the returning players. However, don't be passing up on important RB and WR depth just because your friends make fun of you since you don't have a starting lineup yet. They'll be wanting that quality 4th RB you took later because they panicked and drafted some 2nd rate defense too early.
7) Don't take a kicker til the last round. Half of the kickers that finish in the top 10 come off the waiver wire. Did anyone draft Robbie Gould last year? How about Neil Rackers the year before? Doubt it. Unless you're in the 2nd to last round and just don't like the players left, go ahead and reach for a Vinatieri or some established star kicker on a powerful offense. Otherwise, just wait til the last round. Kickers are a dime a dozen.
8) Don't draft a backup TE, K, or D unless your league roster specifications require it. Unless you have a TE like Winslow who is an injury risk to start the season, there's no point in having a 2nd TE. There's never a reason to draft an extra K or D. Those roster spots are far more valuable when used on RBs and WRs that could emerge at some point during the season.
9) Lastly, don't be afraid to take a risk. The best part about a draft is when you take a chance that pays off and gets you into the playoffs or the championship. Just because all the fantasy outlets have LT ranked over Steven Jackson, for example, don't be afraid to take Jackson first because you like him more this season. Do what you think is best for your team.
My last point is combining the top two things on my list with my last point: mixing ADP, your draft position, and your opinion. Let's say you picked first, and you're looking over your options with the first pick of the 5th round. Let's also say you like a guy who's usually going in the middle of the 6th round better than the guys at the same position that usually go towards the start of the 5th round. Understand that it's your team, and it's your decision. Don't follow the ADP herd and let it drag you down; use it to your advantage. Use it to realize that the guy you like most that goes in the middle of the 6th might not get back to you, and go for him. It's much better screwing up with your own decision than missing out on a gem because you're not supposed to take him there.
Now, who's ready for some football!?!?
To be honest, there hasn't been much of note in baseball outside of the usual daily grind, and with the fantasy baseball trade deadlines likely past and the waiver wire about dry, there isn't a whole lot to do with your rosters other than pray you made the right moves along the way and feel comfortable with your roster come crunchtime in the last month. Hopefully I've helped you get there in some fashion, which was the whole point of me starting this blog. Once the season is over, I will go over all the sell high and buy low suggestions I've made and see how I did. There's always something to learn.
I'm very conflicted on giving fantasy football advice regarding specific players, but I did give a complete RB breakdown a couple weeks ago. The problem is that some of my friends that I play fantasy football with read my blog as good friends do, and I don't need them inside my head as our draft approaches the final weekend before the season starts. :)
I will say this though: simply going through "mass media" rankings won't get you anywhere, in all likelihood. The way to get ahead is to be smarter than the average player. Every "expert" out there gives you his top rankings for each position, and if you've seen one, you've seen them all. LT #1? Really? Wow, that dude's awesome. You have Chad Johnson in your top 5 WR? Well, there's something new. The fact is that the top 10 at each position has close to 50% turnover from year to year, and you're best served by avoiding the half that turns over. Most rankings don't take that into account...they likely mirror last year's top 10 with a few exciting young players mixed in. Which leads me to my list of things to know.
1) Average Draft Position (ADP). If you haven't used it before, make this your first year doing it. This gives you an idea of where players are going, and it's best to look at the most recent results prior to your draft to pick up on the latest trends. If someone is going at a certain location in a draft, take a minute to understand why he's there. Is it a player who experienced a career year? Is it a breakout youngster with the ability to do more? Is it an unproven player who is subject to too much hype? Is it a veteran player who's on the verge of wearing down? Has the player moved to a better/worse team? How has his team changed in the offseason? Factor everything in.
2) Know your draft position. Commissioners, I'm looking at you. I hate leagues that don't provide your position slightly ahead of time. Even if it's only a week, give your guys an advanced heads up as to where they're picking. It makes planning easier for everyone, and the draft spot selection process can be fun as well.
3) Throw out players that likely won't be available to you in the first few rounds. It goes without saying, really, but don't get into arguments over whether you like Larry Johnson or Frank Gore better if you pick 8th. Focus on the guys that will likely be available, but be prepared to pounce if someone slips too far.
4) Don't go in with a set strategy. You're going to hurt yourself if you go in saying "well, I want to go RB/RB" and stick with it. Say there's a huge RB run early on, and Manning makes it to you in the late 2nd round. Do you really want to take Cedric Benson over Peyton Manning because you went in wanting 2 RBs?
5) Pick a sleeper at each position. This somewhat ties into my last point. There's going to be a position you tackle later on in every draft. Whether it's your 3rd WR, your QB, whatever...have a guy picked at each position based on ADP that you wouldn't mind starting, but can get later in the draft. That way you're not scrambling if you take 4 RBs in the first 7-8 rounds because you liked who fell to you, but don't have a QB or TE yet.
6) Don't take a defense til late. OK, I know how the Bears defense paid off big for those who drafted them early, but Baltimore burned people who took them early the year before, and Carolina the year before that. I understand those who take the Bears high again this year thanks to the returning players. However, don't be passing up on important RB and WR depth just because your friends make fun of you since you don't have a starting lineup yet. They'll be wanting that quality 4th RB you took later because they panicked and drafted some 2nd rate defense too early.
7) Don't take a kicker til the last round. Half of the kickers that finish in the top 10 come off the waiver wire. Did anyone draft Robbie Gould last year? How about Neil Rackers the year before? Doubt it. Unless you're in the 2nd to last round and just don't like the players left, go ahead and reach for a Vinatieri or some established star kicker on a powerful offense. Otherwise, just wait til the last round. Kickers are a dime a dozen.
8) Don't draft a backup TE, K, or D unless your league roster specifications require it. Unless you have a TE like Winslow who is an injury risk to start the season, there's no point in having a 2nd TE. There's never a reason to draft an extra K or D. Those roster spots are far more valuable when used on RBs and WRs that could emerge at some point during the season.
9) Lastly, don't be afraid to take a risk. The best part about a draft is when you take a chance that pays off and gets you into the playoffs or the championship. Just because all the fantasy outlets have LT ranked over Steven Jackson, for example, don't be afraid to take Jackson first because you like him more this season. Do what you think is best for your team.
My last point is combining the top two things on my list with my last point: mixing ADP, your draft position, and your opinion. Let's say you picked first, and you're looking over your options with the first pick of the 5th round. Let's also say you like a guy who's usually going in the middle of the 6th round better than the guys at the same position that usually go towards the start of the 5th round. Understand that it's your team, and it's your decision. Don't follow the ADP herd and let it drag you down; use it to your advantage. Use it to realize that the guy you like most that goes in the middle of the 6th might not get back to you, and go for him. It's much better screwing up with your own decision than missing out on a gem because you're not supposed to take him there.
Now, who's ready for some football!?!?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)