QB:
Kurt Warner - If Warner remains healthy and the Cardinals stay in the NFC West race, he will continue to rack up great stats with the talent he has at the WR position. He needs to avoid turnover-fests like he put up in week 4. Warner is also an injury risk, and if the Cardinals start losing, there's no reason to continue starting a veteran QB. It's not a bad idea to strike while the iron is hot and use him to upgrade another position, especially since he was probably drafted as your QB2. If you can get good QB1 value for him, then do it, because the Cardinals have to keep winning, and Warner has to stay healthy in order for him to maintain his current value.
RB:
Michael Turner - Turner should be a solid RB2 all season long, but his production will directly be tied to the strength of the defense and team he's facing. Since he offers very little in the passing game, and the Falcons possess an explosive passing game option in Jerious Norwood, Turner will find production hard to come by when his team is behind. What's worse is that the stronger defenses will be better equipped to focus on him as the primary offensive threat on this offense, enabling them to shut him down like Tampa Bay and Carolina have. See if you can get RB1 given how gaudy his stats are after two weeks.
Reggie Bush - This is another tough call. The problem is that Bush is still the same, uninspiring runner he's always been, but there's no doubt he's a passing game ace. He'll be plenty involved all season long in the offense, but given his inability to run between the tackles, he's going to have a hard time being consistent. Plus, Deuce is back to take care of the inside running. If someone is willing to pay RB1 value for his name, go for it.
Larry Johnson - Obvious call here. He's racked up a couple big games against horrendous defenses, but much like Turner, he's going to be horribly inconsistent. If you can cash in after his huge week 4 on a believer that he's back to his 2006 level of production, don't think twice about dealing him.
WR:
Terrell Owens - Owens has now had his first argument with Tony Romo, coming after last week's game where Owens was clearly frustrated about what was going on in the offense. Owens might settle down with a big game in week 5, but you always have to wonder with his extended past of turning these things into distractions from his on-field play. If you can deal him for someone like Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, etc, do it and rid yourself of a potential future headache. I would not move him unless you get another top tier WR in return, or if you're very deep at WR and get a huge upgrade somewhere else.
Chad Johnson - This is more selling low, but if Palmer has a season-ending injury, deal him for his name value and get what you can for him. There's no way he'll be a consistent fantasy producer with someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the offense. Do NOT attempt to trade him until you hear about Palmer, because if Palmer's elbow is actually OK, then it's only a matter of time before CJ get's going again, and CJ becomes a buy low target.
Greg Jennings - Jennings has truly surprised me by becoming the go-to guy in the GB offense. However, if anything is wrong with Aaron Rodgers, you need to deal him. Matt Flynn will not continue to lead a proficient passing attack like Rodgers has been doing so far this season.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
1/4 Season Review: Buy Low Candidates
The whole buy low, sell high concept complete varies by league, but once 4 weeks are in, the smarter owners are generally less concerned about where they drafted players, and they are more concerned with how the players are actually performing. If an owner is too concerned with where he/she drafted a player, the ability to buy low is pretty much impossible, so understand the owners of your league before attempt to construct a trade with them.
The other thing to consider is how to make an offer for a buy low candidate. Trying to lowball the owner for him is usually insulting, and the offer won't be taken seriously. Some of these are players that would usually be on their owner's "I'm not trading" list, but they could be available for a solid offer. The point isn't to rob the owner, but simply to improve a position on your team by acquiring someone who would demand a king's ransom to acquire if they were playing up to expectations.
Peyton Manning - He seems pretty obvious. The time lost in the offseason due to multiple knee surgeries killed his timing, and he showed obvious rust during his first 3 games. With the bye week to get things straight, I think you see the Peyton Manning you expected in the pre-season starting from week 5. If you could use a hot starter like Kurt Warner in a package to get Manning, do it.
Ben Roethlisberger - I was right in marking him as over-valued heading into the season as he's pretty much been a disaster during the first month, but I believe times are a changing. He has one more potentially tough matchup against Jacksonville (depending on the health of their secondary - Schaub lit up the injured version last week), and then a bye week to rest his hand and shoulder. He's not going to start tossing TDs like crazy like last year, but I believe he can still be a lower QB1 over the rest of the year despite the lesser amount of passing attempts compared to most QBs.
Matt Schaub - Unfortunately the window might have closed after last week's 300 yard, 3 TD performance, but his overall numbers still look pretty sickly. I think he can be a lower QB1 over the rest of the season as Houston will pass plenty, and he has good talent around him at all the skill positions.
RB:
Joseph Addai - Addai was another guy I marked as over-valued (after my primary posting of the draft guide) heading into the season because this is not a guy that can carry the Colts offense if Manning isn't opening lanes for him. Addai suffered from both the rust of Manning and the loss of center Jeff Saturday. I believe he'll come out after the bye week and post better production, although expecting a repeat of the first half of last year would be overly optimistic.
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs had a big first week as he carved up Washington's defense on his 21 carries, but he didn't receive more than 15 carries in the next two games, including a horrible 35 yard effort versus a blah Cincy run defense. The Giants will continue to mix Ward and Bradshaw in, but Jacobs should still be a solid RB2, and his owner might be a bit down on him after the strong first week.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney was drafted in the 1st round last year, and was a bust. Maroney was drafted in the 4th round this year...and he's still been a bust. I'm trying to trade for him in one of my leagues right now. My thought is that NE, coming out of the bye week, will start to focus on the running game. They simply can't run the same spread offense with Cassel as they did with Brady, so they're going to have to run the ball and play defense. Maroney is the 2nd most talented player on offense behind Randy Moss, and they need to get him the ball. He killed it down the stretch last year and throughout the playoffs, so all he needs is the carries. Given Morris sucked in week 3 when he started, I don't see any reason why NE won't start featuring Maroney again.
Willie Parker - Parker tore it up in week 1, posted a solid week 2, and then disappeared with an injury. He'll eventually return from his sprained knee, and he will take over the primary ball carrier position when he does with Mendenhall out for the year. If his owner is depleted at the RB position, and you have RB depth, attempt to get him with an eye on him returning after their bye week.
LenDale White - White has lost his primary RB position to Chris Johnson, but he still remains the goal line runner and the between-the-tackles specialist. Chris Johnson is a very talented rookie, and he has a bright future, but I forsee him hitting the rookie wall at some point, especially since he's not built like a true workhorse. White would unquestionably benefit in that scenario, so he is an interesting guy to stash as a RB3/4 type with an eye towards RB2 value should something happen to Johnson.
WR:
Andre Johnson - AJ posted 112 yards in week 1, but has struggled in back to back games, not going for more than 40 yards in either. He hasn't scored yet, either. That, however, is his own fault as he dropped 2 TDs in week 3. With Schaub righting the ship last week, it's only a matter of time before AJ starts posting the numbers we expected heading into the season.
Santonio Holmes - Holmes has alternated bad and good games so far, so he's been more of a WR3 than the WR2 you drafted him to be. While I feel that he'll be fairly inconsistent because the Steelers just don't throw the ball enough, he's the top WR on this team, and Big Ben's improvement will lead to improvement for Holmes as well.
There really aren't a lot of underperforming WRs. Cincy WRs would be toast if Palmer has a serious elbow injury, so despite their slow starts, I can't recommend acquiring them. Braylon's situation is tied to his QB, and Anderson is lost. Quinn would provide stability for him, but not as many big plays. He might be worth going after, but not at a WR1 price.
TE:
Kellen Winslow - I think he'll come at a discounted rate with the Browns offense looking like a disaster. Quinn would be a big boost to Winslow, who's great in the short-intermediate game. Quinn doesn't have the arm of Anderson to bomb it downfield to Edwards all the time, and his game is well suited to make use of Winslow's talent. Quinn used his TEs in college a decent bit as well. Either Anderson rights the ship, or Quinn takes over...both of which are positives for Winslow.
The TEs are a freakin' mess this season so far, but Winslow is the only one I have confidence in to rebound right now.
The other thing to consider is how to make an offer for a buy low candidate. Trying to lowball the owner for him is usually insulting, and the offer won't be taken seriously. Some of these are players that would usually be on their owner's "I'm not trading" list, but they could be available for a solid offer. The point isn't to rob the owner, but simply to improve a position on your team by acquiring someone who would demand a king's ransom to acquire if they were playing up to expectations.
Peyton Manning - He seems pretty obvious. The time lost in the offseason due to multiple knee surgeries killed his timing, and he showed obvious rust during his first 3 games. With the bye week to get things straight, I think you see the Peyton Manning you expected in the pre-season starting from week 5. If you could use a hot starter like Kurt Warner in a package to get Manning, do it.
Ben Roethlisberger - I was right in marking him as over-valued heading into the season as he's pretty much been a disaster during the first month, but I believe times are a changing. He has one more potentially tough matchup against Jacksonville (depending on the health of their secondary - Schaub lit up the injured version last week), and then a bye week to rest his hand and shoulder. He's not going to start tossing TDs like crazy like last year, but I believe he can still be a lower QB1 over the rest of the year despite the lesser amount of passing attempts compared to most QBs.
Matt Schaub - Unfortunately the window might have closed after last week's 300 yard, 3 TD performance, but his overall numbers still look pretty sickly. I think he can be a lower QB1 over the rest of the season as Houston will pass plenty, and he has good talent around him at all the skill positions.
RB:
Joseph Addai - Addai was another guy I marked as over-valued (after my primary posting of the draft guide) heading into the season because this is not a guy that can carry the Colts offense if Manning isn't opening lanes for him. Addai suffered from both the rust of Manning and the loss of center Jeff Saturday. I believe he'll come out after the bye week and post better production, although expecting a repeat of the first half of last year would be overly optimistic.
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs had a big first week as he carved up Washington's defense on his 21 carries, but he didn't receive more than 15 carries in the next two games, including a horrible 35 yard effort versus a blah Cincy run defense. The Giants will continue to mix Ward and Bradshaw in, but Jacobs should still be a solid RB2, and his owner might be a bit down on him after the strong first week.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney was drafted in the 1st round last year, and was a bust. Maroney was drafted in the 4th round this year...and he's still been a bust. I'm trying to trade for him in one of my leagues right now. My thought is that NE, coming out of the bye week, will start to focus on the running game. They simply can't run the same spread offense with Cassel as they did with Brady, so they're going to have to run the ball and play defense. Maroney is the 2nd most talented player on offense behind Randy Moss, and they need to get him the ball. He killed it down the stretch last year and throughout the playoffs, so all he needs is the carries. Given Morris sucked in week 3 when he started, I don't see any reason why NE won't start featuring Maroney again.
Willie Parker - Parker tore it up in week 1, posted a solid week 2, and then disappeared with an injury. He'll eventually return from his sprained knee, and he will take over the primary ball carrier position when he does with Mendenhall out for the year. If his owner is depleted at the RB position, and you have RB depth, attempt to get him with an eye on him returning after their bye week.
LenDale White - White has lost his primary RB position to Chris Johnson, but he still remains the goal line runner and the between-the-tackles specialist. Chris Johnson is a very talented rookie, and he has a bright future, but I forsee him hitting the rookie wall at some point, especially since he's not built like a true workhorse. White would unquestionably benefit in that scenario, so he is an interesting guy to stash as a RB3/4 type with an eye towards RB2 value should something happen to Johnson.
WR:
Andre Johnson - AJ posted 112 yards in week 1, but has struggled in back to back games, not going for more than 40 yards in either. He hasn't scored yet, either. That, however, is his own fault as he dropped 2 TDs in week 3. With Schaub righting the ship last week, it's only a matter of time before AJ starts posting the numbers we expected heading into the season.
Santonio Holmes - Holmes has alternated bad and good games so far, so he's been more of a WR3 than the WR2 you drafted him to be. While I feel that he'll be fairly inconsistent because the Steelers just don't throw the ball enough, he's the top WR on this team, and Big Ben's improvement will lead to improvement for Holmes as well.
There really aren't a lot of underperforming WRs. Cincy WRs would be toast if Palmer has a serious elbow injury, so despite their slow starts, I can't recommend acquiring them. Braylon's situation is tied to his QB, and Anderson is lost. Quinn would provide stability for him, but not as many big plays. He might be worth going after, but not at a WR1 price.
TE:
Kellen Winslow - I think he'll come at a discounted rate with the Browns offense looking like a disaster. Quinn would be a big boost to Winslow, who's great in the short-intermediate game. Quinn doesn't have the arm of Anderson to bomb it downfield to Edwards all the time, and his game is well suited to make use of Winslow's talent. Quinn used his TEs in college a decent bit as well. Either Anderson rights the ship, or Quinn takes over...both of which are positives for Winslow.
The TEs are a freakin' mess this season so far, but Winslow is the only one I have confidence in to rebound right now.
Week 5 Waiver Wire Possibilities
QB:
Marc Bulger - Bulger has been re-installed as the Rams QB. I have more confidence in their offense with Linehan leaving and Saunders having full offensive control, so I think Bulger could re-emerge as a decent QB2. If you have crap behind your starter, or you have 2 good QBs and you're thinking about trading one, I'd grab Bulger to see how the offense looks with Linehan gone.
Brady Quinn - Don't give up on Quinn, and make sure to pick him up. Anderson bought himself a little more time with a decent 2nd half that led to a win, but he was brutal in the 1st half, and he really wasn't overly impressive at all in the 2nd half. I still think you see Quinn starting sooner than later.
RB:
Duece McAllister - McAllister racked up 20 carries in week 4, re-emerging in his 2006 role of being the punishing, inside runner that complements Reggie Bush. All reports indicate that he's going to maintain that role for as long as he stays healthy, so he's certainly worth a top waiver wire addition.
Leon Washington - Thomas Jones is struggling out in Jets land, and should the coaching staff feel a need to inject some life into a rather lifeless rushing attack since week 1, Washington would be the guy. He's an interesting speculatory pickup.
Derrick Ward - Brandon Jacobs owners should really have him handcuffed with Ward. Ward was great last season during his starts with Jacobs out, and he appears to be firmly ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw on the depth chart. Other teams with an empty spot could speculate with him as well.
Kenny Watson - Chris Perry owners should do the same with Watson. Watson has been inactive due to nagging injuries, but he is the best bet in the Cincy backfield to take over for Perry once Perry inevitably gets hurt.
WR:
Lance Moore - I'd be careful blowing a top waiver wire pick on Moore unless you need WR help immediately. He'll unquestionably have value as the possession receiver (who did get open down the field as well) who balances out the deep threats that are Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, but Moore should be valuable for as long as Colston is out.
Robert Meachem - He'll get deep, but it seems like those are the only passes he catches. He's obviously a massive PPR risk, but in standard scoring leagues, all that matters are yards and TDs.
Steve Breaston - Boldin owners should pick him up to cover Q if he doesn't play, but I don't see enough value here given Q escaped serious injury for anyone else to waste their time.
TE:
Zach Miller - 2 bad games, 1 great game. He's a decent TE2 whom Russell should continue using as much as he can.
Greg Olsen - He might have been dropped in your league, and he's still interesting TE2 material, but given he's still splitting time and targets with Desmond Clark, you cannot rely on him on a weekly basis.
Marc Bulger - Bulger has been re-installed as the Rams QB. I have more confidence in their offense with Linehan leaving and Saunders having full offensive control, so I think Bulger could re-emerge as a decent QB2. If you have crap behind your starter, or you have 2 good QBs and you're thinking about trading one, I'd grab Bulger to see how the offense looks with Linehan gone.
Brady Quinn - Don't give up on Quinn, and make sure to pick him up. Anderson bought himself a little more time with a decent 2nd half that led to a win, but he was brutal in the 1st half, and he really wasn't overly impressive at all in the 2nd half. I still think you see Quinn starting sooner than later.
RB:
Duece McAllister - McAllister racked up 20 carries in week 4, re-emerging in his 2006 role of being the punishing, inside runner that complements Reggie Bush. All reports indicate that he's going to maintain that role for as long as he stays healthy, so he's certainly worth a top waiver wire addition.
Leon Washington - Thomas Jones is struggling out in Jets land, and should the coaching staff feel a need to inject some life into a rather lifeless rushing attack since week 1, Washington would be the guy. He's an interesting speculatory pickup.
Derrick Ward - Brandon Jacobs owners should really have him handcuffed with Ward. Ward was great last season during his starts with Jacobs out, and he appears to be firmly ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw on the depth chart. Other teams with an empty spot could speculate with him as well.
Kenny Watson - Chris Perry owners should do the same with Watson. Watson has been inactive due to nagging injuries, but he is the best bet in the Cincy backfield to take over for Perry once Perry inevitably gets hurt.
WR:
Lance Moore - I'd be careful blowing a top waiver wire pick on Moore unless you need WR help immediately. He'll unquestionably have value as the possession receiver (who did get open down the field as well) who balances out the deep threats that are Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, but Moore should be valuable for as long as Colston is out.
Robert Meachem - He'll get deep, but it seems like those are the only passes he catches. He's obviously a massive PPR risk, but in standard scoring leagues, all that matters are yards and TDs.
Steve Breaston - Boldin owners should pick him up to cover Q if he doesn't play, but I don't see enough value here given Q escaped serious injury for anyone else to waste their time.
TE:
Zach Miller - 2 bad games, 1 great game. He's a decent TE2 whom Russell should continue using as much as he can.
Greg Olsen - He might have been dropped in your league, and he's still interesting TE2 material, but given he's still splitting time and targets with Desmond Clark, you cannot rely on him on a weekly basis.
Raiders Fire Coach Lane Kiffin
The Oakland Raiders have fired head coach Lane Kiffin. Offensive line coach Tom Cable will take over.
What a circus this has been. Al Davis was just waiting for Kiffin to do something so that he could fire him without having to pay him, and apparently Kiffin has been "insubordinate" enough to where Davis finally had enough reason to do it.
Fantasy Impact: Kiffin certainly has the running game working, and Russell looked solid in his last outing. Given Kiffin had a lot of say over the offense, it's probably not good that he left in the middle of the season, but we'll see what happens from here on out. The Raiders are on bye this week, so they'll have 2 weeks to get everything in order for the next game in week 6.
What a circus this has been. Al Davis was just waiting for Kiffin to do something so that he could fire him without having to pay him, and apparently Kiffin has been "insubordinate" enough to where Davis finally had enough reason to do it.
Fantasy Impact: Kiffin certainly has the running game working, and Russell looked solid in his last outing. Given Kiffin had a lot of say over the offense, it's probably not good that he left in the middle of the season, but we'll see what happens from here on out. The Raiders are on bye this week, so they'll have 2 weeks to get everything in order for the next game in week 6.
Rams Fire Coach Scott Linehan
The St. Louis Rams have fired coach Scott Linehan. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett will take over.
Let's face it, he's a solid offensive coordinator, but he sucks as a head coach. This team certainly has problems and holes, but they weren't close to playing up to their potential. This has been one of the worst teams in football since the start of 2007.
Fantasy Impact: New head coach Jim Haslett has re-installed Marc Bulger as the starting QB. I have no idea if HC Linehan and OC Al Saunders got along or not, and being that they're both offensive-minded, it's possible they clashed on philosophies. With Saunders fully in charge of the offense now (Haslett is a defensive coach), I expect to see improvement in all areas on offense, although expecting immediate improvement is probably a bit overly optimistic.
Let's face it, he's a solid offensive coordinator, but he sucks as a head coach. This team certainly has problems and holes, but they weren't close to playing up to their potential. This has been one of the worst teams in football since the start of 2007.
Fantasy Impact: New head coach Jim Haslett has re-installed Marc Bulger as the starting QB. I have no idea if HC Linehan and OC Al Saunders got along or not, and being that they're both offensive-minded, it's possible they clashed on philosophies. With Saunders fully in charge of the offense now (Haslett is a defensive coach), I expect to see improvement in all areas on offense, although expecting immediate improvement is probably a bit overly optimistic.
Week 5 - Walking Wounded
QB:
Carson Palmer - Palmer's nightmare season continued Sunday, as his elbow swelled up on him and he could not play on Sunday. This could be as simple as a one time occurrence, or as bad as needed season-ending surgery, potentially Tommy John surgery. His status for week 5 is unknown, and now is not a bad time to shop for a potential long-term backup so you don't get screwed into the desperate territory should this injury be severe. *edit* Palmer seems positive and the practice reports have been favorable, but he's still a gametime decision for Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers injured his shoulder after being driven into the turf at the end of scramble. GB is calling it a sprained shoulder, but it appears that he separated it. Positive news is that he returned to the game, but his status for week 5 is completely up in the air. *edit* Rodgers is also a gametime decision, although reports on him have been less favorable than Palmer.
Jon Kitna - Kitna returned to practice on Monday and is ready to start in week 5.
RB:
Laurence Maroney - Maroney returned to practice on Monday and is likely to start in week 5.
Willis McGahee - McGahee did end up starting last night, but suffered a chest injury that had him in and out of the lineup a couple times. His status is uncertain for week 5. *edit* McGahee might start, but against TEN, there's no way he should be in your lineups.
LeRon McClain - McClain also left last night's game with leg cramps and didn't return for the OT drive, but if they were indeed leg cramps, he might have a shot at starting in week 5. *edit* McClain is fine, and might be the preferred option at the goal line moving foward.
Willie Parker - Parker has already been ruled out for week 5.
Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall broke his shoulder last night, and he was placed on injured reserve. All redraft league owners can drop him.
Darren McFadden - McFadden, for the 2nd straight week, was obviously hobbled by his toe injury. It would be to his benefit if he actually got some rest, and luckily they are on bye in week 5.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook gave it a go during pre-game warmups, but couldn't move laterally that well. That appears to be good news on the surface, but his status for week 5 is up in the air right now. *edit* Westbrook practiced on Friday, but his status for week 5 is questionable. He is another gametime decision, and luckily this week he's playing early.
Maurice Morris - Morris couldn't practice on Monday, and as of now, it appears unlikely that he'll return this week. Julius Jones will start again, and would be a safer play with Morris out. *edit* Morris is out in week 5.
WR:
Anquan Boldin - Boldin suffered a nasty hit in the endzone in the waning moments of the game last week. He was taken off on a stretcher, but checked out just fine and was released from the hospital in time to make the team flight. I find it hard to believe that he'd be ready to play in week 5, but we don't know anything as of yet. *edit* Boldin underwent sinus fracture surgery, and is out for week 5. He has a decent chance of playing in week 6.
Joey Galloway - Galloway looks likely to sit out again this week with a foot sprain. *edit* Galloway is out in week 5.
Marques Colston - Still out after thumb surgery.
TE:
Jeremy Shockey - Still out after his hernia-ish surgery.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's nightmare season continued Sunday, as his elbow swelled up on him and he could not play on Sunday. This could be as simple as a one time occurrence, or as bad as needed season-ending surgery, potentially Tommy John surgery. His status for week 5 is unknown, and now is not a bad time to shop for a potential long-term backup so you don't get screwed into the desperate territory should this injury be severe. *edit* Palmer seems positive and the practice reports have been favorable, but he's still a gametime decision for Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers injured his shoulder after being driven into the turf at the end of scramble. GB is calling it a sprained shoulder, but it appears that he separated it. Positive news is that he returned to the game, but his status for week 5 is completely up in the air. *edit* Rodgers is also a gametime decision, although reports on him have been less favorable than Palmer.
Jon Kitna - Kitna returned to practice on Monday and is ready to start in week 5.
RB:
Laurence Maroney - Maroney returned to practice on Monday and is likely to start in week 5.
Willis McGahee - McGahee did end up starting last night, but suffered a chest injury that had him in and out of the lineup a couple times. His status is uncertain for week 5. *edit* McGahee might start, but against TEN, there's no way he should be in your lineups.
LeRon McClain - McClain also left last night's game with leg cramps and didn't return for the OT drive, but if they were indeed leg cramps, he might have a shot at starting in week 5. *edit* McClain is fine, and might be the preferred option at the goal line moving foward.
Willie Parker - Parker has already been ruled out for week 5.
Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall broke his shoulder last night, and he was placed on injured reserve. All redraft league owners can drop him.
Darren McFadden - McFadden, for the 2nd straight week, was obviously hobbled by his toe injury. It would be to his benefit if he actually got some rest, and luckily they are on bye in week 5.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook gave it a go during pre-game warmups, but couldn't move laterally that well. That appears to be good news on the surface, but his status for week 5 is up in the air right now. *edit* Westbrook practiced on Friday, but his status for week 5 is questionable. He is another gametime decision, and luckily this week he's playing early.
Maurice Morris - Morris couldn't practice on Monday, and as of now, it appears unlikely that he'll return this week. Julius Jones will start again, and would be a safer play with Morris out. *edit* Morris is out in week 5.
WR:
Anquan Boldin - Boldin suffered a nasty hit in the endzone in the waning moments of the game last week. He was taken off on a stretcher, but checked out just fine and was released from the hospital in time to make the team flight. I find it hard to believe that he'd be ready to play in week 5, but we don't know anything as of yet. *edit* Boldin underwent sinus fracture surgery, and is out for week 5. He has a decent chance of playing in week 6.
Joey Galloway - Galloway looks likely to sit out again this week with a foot sprain. *edit* Galloway is out in week 5.
Marques Colston - Still out after thumb surgery.
TE:
Jeremy Shockey - Still out after his hernia-ish surgery.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Week 4 Injury Updates
I've updated all players for week 4 injuries. The biggest stories are those of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, and to a lesser extent, Willis McGahee. Westbrook did not practice this week, but given his knowledge of and experience with the Eagles offense, practice isn't mandatory for him. However, he seems unlikely to play.
Westbrook's owners should have handcuffed him with Buckhalter, who should be the primary ball carrier, but do be aware that Lorenzo Booker could steal some 3rd down work, and Tony Hunt could be the goal line back. Westbrook owners who don't have Buckhalter HAVE to sit him out if they don't have Forte or Mendenhall to use instead if Westbrook can't go. Those are the other primary runners that play either at Westbrook's timeslot on Sunday night, or on Monday night. There's absolutely no reason to risk taking a zero at your RB position, especially for a player so unlikely to play right now.
McNabb returned to a full practice on Friday. There was never a whole lot of doubt about his availability, so start him with confidence against the Bears. Without Westbrook and against a great run defense, Philly will probably be more pass heavy than usual.
McGahee looks unlikely to play after being limited in practice this week, and with LeRon McClain hurting as well, Ray Rice might be the starter and primary ball carrier. Given the matchup against Pittsburgh, I would completely avoid the situation.
Westbrook's owners should have handcuffed him with Buckhalter, who should be the primary ball carrier, but do be aware that Lorenzo Booker could steal some 3rd down work, and Tony Hunt could be the goal line back. Westbrook owners who don't have Buckhalter HAVE to sit him out if they don't have Forte or Mendenhall to use instead if Westbrook can't go. Those are the other primary runners that play either at Westbrook's timeslot on Sunday night, or on Monday night. There's absolutely no reason to risk taking a zero at your RB position, especially for a player so unlikely to play right now.
McNabb returned to a full practice on Friday. There was never a whole lot of doubt about his availability, so start him with confidence against the Bears. Without Westbrook and against a great run defense, Philly will probably be more pass heavy than usual.
McGahee looks unlikely to play after being limited in practice this week, and with LeRon McClain hurting as well, Ray Rice might be the starter and primary ball carrier. Given the matchup against Pittsburgh, I would completely avoid the situation.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Giants WR Plaxico Burress Suspended 1 Game (Week 5)
The New York Giants have suspended WR Plaxico Burress for 2 weeks, and with the Giants on bye this week, that will equate to 1 game.
Burress supposedly skipped a meeting on Monday, and then didn't answer his phone yesterday. When he met with the team today, his behavior the past two days was not tolerated, and he was notified of his suspension. He will not be allowed to practice with the team over the next two weeks, and he will not play in week 5, when the Giants come off of their week 4 bye.
Fantasy Impact: If you had week 4 in your "When Burress Does Something Retarded" pool, you win! His fantasy owners can't be pleased as he'll miss week 5, so continue using whoever his replacement on your fantasy team was in week 4, or go pick up Steve Smith. I think Smith would have a fine game in Burress' place. He's certainly not the deep threat Burress is, but he's a very good possession receiver with a bit of field stretching ability. Downgrade Eli's matchup without his top target as I would expect the Giants to run more often. *edit* The Giants said that they'll keep Steve Smith in the slot with Dominick Hixon moving outside, which makes sense as Hixon's skill set is more of a vertical threat anyways. I'd only gamble on Smith/Hixon if your WR depth is depleted by injuries/bye weeks.
Burress supposedly skipped a meeting on Monday, and then didn't answer his phone yesterday. When he met with the team today, his behavior the past two days was not tolerated, and he was notified of his suspension. He will not be allowed to practice with the team over the next two weeks, and he will not play in week 5, when the Giants come off of their week 4 bye.
Fantasy Impact: If you had week 4 in your "When Burress Does Something Retarded" pool, you win! His fantasy owners can't be pleased as he'll miss week 5, so continue using whoever his replacement on your fantasy team was in week 4, or go pick up Steve Smith. I think Smith would have a fine game in Burress' place. He's certainly not the deep threat Burress is, but he's a very good possession receiver with a bit of field stretching ability. Downgrade Eli's matchup without his top target as I would expect the Giants to run more often. *edit* The Giants said that they'll keep Steve Smith in the slot with Dominick Hixon moving outside, which makes sense as Hixon's skill set is more of a vertical threat anyways. I'd only gamble on Smith/Hixon if your WR depth is depleted by injuries/bye weeks.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Week 4 Waiver Wire Possibilities
QB:
Lots of turnover at QB this week. Let's look at some potential, and some definitive new starters:
Brady Quinn - I'm kicking myself for not outwardly suggesting to pick him up last week. Quinn doesn't have the job yet, but smart fantasy owners don't wait. Anderson will start on Sunday, but he's got about the shortest leash possible, and rumors persist that a slow first series might be the breaking point. Like I posted before, Quinn has the weapons, and I also believe he has the NFL-readiness to be a decent QB2. Anderson owners NEED to pick him up, and he's worth speculating on for everyone.
Sage Rosenfels - Houston has played a brutal schedule so far, and it would have been even worse had the week 2 matchup with Baltimore not been eliminated by the hurricane damage to Reliant Stadium. With Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels catching passes, and an excellent receiver in Steve Slaton in the backfield, Rosenfels would have the talent around him to be a quality QB2 should Schaub get benched. Schaub owners should probably grab him if they have room, and if you've been decimated at the QB position, he's another solid speculative add.
Brian Griese - Griese posted a monster week 3 against the Bears with 407 yards and 2 TDs, but also with 3 INTs. Like I mentioned last week, Griese has had success with Gruden before, and he knows the offense. He doesn't have great talent around him, but he'll do what he can. With all the QB turnover going on, he's not a bad QB2.
Kerry Collins - Collins has posted very pedestrian numbers behind a run-first Titans offense in Vince Young's absence. He's almost similar to Trent Edwards, although he doesn't have a receiver anywhere near the pedigree of Lee Evans to throw to. His yardage will remain low, but he should have a mostly clean pocket to work with. 200 yards and 1 TD will probably be his norm, and if that's better than what you have on your bench, grab him.
Dan Orlovsky/Drew Stanton - Both of these guys should be a wait-and-see. Kitna isn't officially out yet, and it would take a moron like Matt Leinart not to be at least somewhat productive with a talented duo like Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to throw the ball to. Detroit's offensive line and running game won't do them a lot of favors, so they should continue to throw often should one of them replace Kitna. Keep an eye out to see what happens.
Damon Huard - KC would be retarded not to turn to Huard after the Tyler Thigpen Disaster of week 3. Huard could be solid with Bowe and Gonzalez to throw to, but Croyle is due back in week 6, and there's no reason to believe Edwards won't turn over the reigns back to him once he returns. Don't bother.
Trent Green - NO.
RB:
Steve Slaton - I apologize for over-looking him the previous 2 weeks. He honestly should have been drafted or picked up after the preseason given how good he looked and the mess the Texans had at the position, but if for some odd reason he's available, he's your #1 WW priority.
Rashard Mendenhall - There's no reason he shouldn't have been drafted, but if someone hit the panic button and dropped him after watching Parker go nuts the first week, he's your #2 WW priority behind Slaton.
Willis McGahee - McGahee was knocked out from the game after getting cut on his eyelid, and further reports have indicated that the injury might have resulted from an intentional hit. McGahee's status is unclear. *edit* McGahee has been limited in practice all week, and doesn't seem too optimistic about playing. If you have to use him, you'll need to check the gameday inactive lists.
Rudi Johnson - He probably should have been owned already as well, but given his lackluster performance prior to week 3, who knows? Kevin Smith was likely benched for blitz pickup, and Rudi actually looked good in week 3. He's worth adding to see what role he takes next week as he could become RB3 material should he usurp Smith's starting job. Don't you dare go dropping Kevin Smith, though.
Correll Buckhalter - Westbrook says he'll be ready for week 3, but you never know. Buckhalter was very effective last year in week 4 when Westbrook was out hurt, posting 17 carries for 103 yards with 4 catches for 35 yards on top of that. He'd also be the goal line runner, making him a solid play in week 4 against the Bears.
WR:
Antonio Bryant - Again, should already be owned, but if not, he's the top WR add.
Bobby Engram - Hasselbeck's 2007 BFF is due back after his week 4 bye in week 5, and he should be owned in all leagues. He'll likely become Seattle's leading WR again upon his return.
Deion Branch - Branch is also due back in week 5, and he should also be owned in all leagues. He'll immediately start as soon as he's ready, and Seattle's offense looks much better with Julius Jones leading the way on the ground.
Brandon Lloyd - Lloyd exploded in week 3 against TB with 6 catches for 124 yards and a TD. Given he's emerging as the Bears go-to WR, he's worth grabbing to see how he does over the next couple weeks. It's hard to think that Orton will be consistent enough to make Lloyd worth starting, but he could be a bye-week fill-in against weak defenses at worst.
TE:
I don't see anyone at the TE position worth grabbing right now.
Lots of turnover at QB this week. Let's look at some potential, and some definitive new starters:
Brady Quinn - I'm kicking myself for not outwardly suggesting to pick him up last week. Quinn doesn't have the job yet, but smart fantasy owners don't wait. Anderson will start on Sunday, but he's got about the shortest leash possible, and rumors persist that a slow first series might be the breaking point. Like I posted before, Quinn has the weapons, and I also believe he has the NFL-readiness to be a decent QB2. Anderson owners NEED to pick him up, and he's worth speculating on for everyone.
Sage Rosenfels - Houston has played a brutal schedule so far, and it would have been even worse had the week 2 matchup with Baltimore not been eliminated by the hurricane damage to Reliant Stadium. With Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels catching passes, and an excellent receiver in Steve Slaton in the backfield, Rosenfels would have the talent around him to be a quality QB2 should Schaub get benched. Schaub owners should probably grab him if they have room, and if you've been decimated at the QB position, he's another solid speculative add.
Brian Griese - Griese posted a monster week 3 against the Bears with 407 yards and 2 TDs, but also with 3 INTs. Like I mentioned last week, Griese has had success with Gruden before, and he knows the offense. He doesn't have great talent around him, but he'll do what he can. With all the QB turnover going on, he's not a bad QB2.
Kerry Collins - Collins has posted very pedestrian numbers behind a run-first Titans offense in Vince Young's absence. He's almost similar to Trent Edwards, although he doesn't have a receiver anywhere near the pedigree of Lee Evans to throw to. His yardage will remain low, but he should have a mostly clean pocket to work with. 200 yards and 1 TD will probably be his norm, and if that's better than what you have on your bench, grab him.
Dan Orlovsky/Drew Stanton - Both of these guys should be a wait-and-see. Kitna isn't officially out yet, and it would take a moron like Matt Leinart not to be at least somewhat productive with a talented duo like Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to throw the ball to. Detroit's offensive line and running game won't do them a lot of favors, so they should continue to throw often should one of them replace Kitna. Keep an eye out to see what happens.
Damon Huard - KC would be retarded not to turn to Huard after the Tyler Thigpen Disaster of week 3. Huard could be solid with Bowe and Gonzalez to throw to, but Croyle is due back in week 6, and there's no reason to believe Edwards won't turn over the reigns back to him once he returns. Don't bother.
Trent Green - NO.
RB:
Steve Slaton - I apologize for over-looking him the previous 2 weeks. He honestly should have been drafted or picked up after the preseason given how good he looked and the mess the Texans had at the position, but if for some odd reason he's available, he's your #1 WW priority.
Rashard Mendenhall - There's no reason he shouldn't have been drafted, but if someone hit the panic button and dropped him after watching Parker go nuts the first week, he's your #2 WW priority behind Slaton.
Willis McGahee - McGahee was knocked out from the game after getting cut on his eyelid, and further reports have indicated that the injury might have resulted from an intentional hit. McGahee's status is unclear. *edit* McGahee has been limited in practice all week, and doesn't seem too optimistic about playing. If you have to use him, you'll need to check the gameday inactive lists.
Rudi Johnson - He probably should have been owned already as well, but given his lackluster performance prior to week 3, who knows? Kevin Smith was likely benched for blitz pickup, and Rudi actually looked good in week 3. He's worth adding to see what role he takes next week as he could become RB3 material should he usurp Smith's starting job. Don't you dare go dropping Kevin Smith, though.
Correll Buckhalter - Westbrook says he'll be ready for week 3, but you never know. Buckhalter was very effective last year in week 4 when Westbrook was out hurt, posting 17 carries for 103 yards with 4 catches for 35 yards on top of that. He'd also be the goal line runner, making him a solid play in week 4 against the Bears.
WR:
Antonio Bryant - Again, should already be owned, but if not, he's the top WR add.
Bobby Engram - Hasselbeck's 2007 BFF is due back after his week 4 bye in week 5, and he should be owned in all leagues. He'll likely become Seattle's leading WR again upon his return.
Deion Branch - Branch is also due back in week 5, and he should also be owned in all leagues. He'll immediately start as soon as he's ready, and Seattle's offense looks much better with Julius Jones leading the way on the ground.
Brandon Lloyd - Lloyd exploded in week 3 against TB with 6 catches for 124 yards and a TD. Given he's emerging as the Bears go-to WR, he's worth grabbing to see how he does over the next couple weeks. It's hard to think that Orton will be consistent enough to make Lloyd worth starting, but he could be a bye-week fill-in against weak defenses at worst.
TE:
I don't see anyone at the TE position worth grabbing right now.
Rams QB Marc Bulger Benched
Out of nowhere, the St. Louis Rams have benched QB Marc Bulger, replacing him with QB Trent Green.
This is ridiculous. Marc Bulger wasn't having a stellar season by any means, but the problems with the St. Louis Rams go far beyond him. Bulger had completed 58.4% of his passes for 519 yards with a 2:2 TD:INT ratio. Hardly good, but not bad either. He's also been sacked 11 times in 3 games. I suppose it's Bulger's fault that a declining Torry Holt is the only decent weapon the team possesses, and the fact they were relying on injury-prone (and now injured) Drew Bennett as the only decent receiving option on the team behind him. I also supposed it was Marc Bulger who did little to upgrade the woeful offensive line this offseason. Trent Green hasn't been good in years, and placing a huge concussion risk behind a dreadful offensive line probably isn't going to end well. The Rams are a joke, and the fact they think Trent Green is a superior option at the QB position is just another reason why. Steven Jackson is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Why don't you bench him, too?
Fantasy Impact: Drop Bulger. He was barely worth a roster spot with the way he was performing, and now that he's not the starter anymore, there's absolutely no reason to continue rostering him.
This is ridiculous. Marc Bulger wasn't having a stellar season by any means, but the problems with the St. Louis Rams go far beyond him. Bulger had completed 58.4% of his passes for 519 yards with a 2:2 TD:INT ratio. Hardly good, but not bad either. He's also been sacked 11 times in 3 games. I suppose it's Bulger's fault that a declining Torry Holt is the only decent weapon the team possesses, and the fact they were relying on injury-prone (and now injured) Drew Bennett as the only decent receiving option on the team behind him. I also supposed it was Marc Bulger who did little to upgrade the woeful offensive line this offseason. Trent Green hasn't been good in years, and placing a huge concussion risk behind a dreadful offensive line probably isn't going to end well. The Rams are a joke, and the fact they think Trent Green is a superior option at the QB position is just another reason why. Steven Jackson is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Why don't you bench him, too?
Fantasy Impact: Drop Bulger. He was barely worth a roster spot with the way he was performing, and now that he's not the starter anymore, there's absolutely no reason to continue rostering him.
Monday, September 22, 2008
QBs On The Hot Seat
Given we now have a couple of NFL QBs fighting for their jobs, most of whom were drafted, possibly as a QB1, I felt the need to detail the potential impact here.
Derek Anderson - Anderson has actually been playing bad since late last year, but his overall numbers looked very good, masking some of those problems. He's been flat-out horrible this year so far, completing 46.2% of his passes with an abysmal 2:5 TD:INT ratio. He has played DAL, PIT, and BAL so far, which all boast pretty solid defenses, so it is true that he has faced a tough schedule so far. Still, with a first round pick in Brady Quinn on the bench waiting for his turn, Anderson's job is undeniably on the line in week 4. Luckily he faces Cincinnati, whom he torched for 579 yards and 7 TDs, although they did get him for 4 INTs in the 2nd meeting. If he starts slowly, Quinn will be playing before the game is up. Do NOT start him in week 4, and Quinn will be featured in my waiver wire article tomorrow. A change from Anderson will likely revitalize the offense, but Quinn won't bomb it deep to Edwards like Anderson did last year, although it's questionable whether Edwards would even catch it at this point. Consider a move to Quinn a good thing for Edwards/Winslow/Lewis.
Matt Schaub - Schaub was one of my favorite sleeper QBs and I highly recommended him in my draft guide prior to the season, but he has been a disaster so far through 2 games. He has faced PIT and TEN, which both boast top defenses, so there is a somewhat built-in excuse. He's also completed 60% of his passes, but sports a dreadful 1:5 TD:INT ratio. Andre Johnson dropped 2 TD passes yesterday, including a potential 50 yarder, so while that certainly didn't help Schaub's number, it also doesn't explain 5 INTs with a lost fumble as well. His offensive line isn't helping either. His leash isn't quite as short as Anderson's, I think, but he's still on job security alert. There's rumors that if he doesn't perform well in week 4, Sage Rosenfels will take over in week 5. Unfortunately Schaub gets a very tough matchup against JAX this week, so he'll have his work cut out for him. A move to Rosenfels, as proven last year, would not hurt AJ/Daniels/Slaton.
Jon Kitna - Kitna sprained his knee in week 3 and didn't return to the game, but his performance thus far has been very shaky despite having 2 supremely talented WRs to throw to. Kitna has completed 57.7% of his passes, but only has a mediocre 5:5 TD:INT ratio. In week 2, with the Lions down 27-25, Kitna threw 3 consecutive INTs that lead to 21 GB points to completely blow a winnable game against a divisional rival. In week 3, his 146 yard, 1 TD, 1 INT performance well into the 4th quarter was horrible, although Mike Martz undoubtedly gave the SF defense the knowledge they needed to shut him down. Detroit is in panic mode, and at 0-3, they have little to lose by trying talented youngster Drew Stanton, which seems to be the media's choice over current 2nd stringer Dan Orlovsky. With a bye in week 4 and an ailing Kitna, a potential new starter would have 2 full weeks to get ready, which would be ideal if they make a QB change. Given the lack of experience that Orlovsky and Stanton have, plus the new offensive system they learned this offseason, I would downgrade CJ and Roy a bit if a change is made.
Gus Frerotte / Brian Griese - Frerotte and Griese have already taken over for Tavaris Jackson and Jeff Garcia, respectively. Both are low upside QB2 candidates, but I'd highly prefer Griese, because as he showed yesterday, TB will pass the ball a lot more than MIN will. Just don't expect Griese to be tossing it 60 times again.
Kansas City Chiefs - I thought Damon Huard was supposed to be on speed dial in week 3? Instead, Herm Edwards allowed Tyler Thigpen to stink up the joint. Thigpen did settle down after a disgusting 2/13, 12 yards, 3 INT start. Damon Huard undoubtedly gives KC the best chance to win right now, but clearly the Chiefs aren't concerned about winning right now. I don't even known why I'm wasting everybody's time writing about bad QBs who run a puke offense anyways. Dammit.
Derek Anderson - Anderson has actually been playing bad since late last year, but his overall numbers looked very good, masking some of those problems. He's been flat-out horrible this year so far, completing 46.2% of his passes with an abysmal 2:5 TD:INT ratio. He has played DAL, PIT, and BAL so far, which all boast pretty solid defenses, so it is true that he has faced a tough schedule so far. Still, with a first round pick in Brady Quinn on the bench waiting for his turn, Anderson's job is undeniably on the line in week 4. Luckily he faces Cincinnati, whom he torched for 579 yards and 7 TDs, although they did get him for 4 INTs in the 2nd meeting. If he starts slowly, Quinn will be playing before the game is up. Do NOT start him in week 4, and Quinn will be featured in my waiver wire article tomorrow. A change from Anderson will likely revitalize the offense, but Quinn won't bomb it deep to Edwards like Anderson did last year, although it's questionable whether Edwards would even catch it at this point. Consider a move to Quinn a good thing for Edwards/Winslow/Lewis.
Matt Schaub - Schaub was one of my favorite sleeper QBs and I highly recommended him in my draft guide prior to the season, but he has been a disaster so far through 2 games. He has faced PIT and TEN, which both boast top defenses, so there is a somewhat built-in excuse. He's also completed 60% of his passes, but sports a dreadful 1:5 TD:INT ratio. Andre Johnson dropped 2 TD passes yesterday, including a potential 50 yarder, so while that certainly didn't help Schaub's number, it also doesn't explain 5 INTs with a lost fumble as well. His offensive line isn't helping either. His leash isn't quite as short as Anderson's, I think, but he's still on job security alert. There's rumors that if he doesn't perform well in week 4, Sage Rosenfels will take over in week 5. Unfortunately Schaub gets a very tough matchup against JAX this week, so he'll have his work cut out for him. A move to Rosenfels, as proven last year, would not hurt AJ/Daniels/Slaton.
Jon Kitna - Kitna sprained his knee in week 3 and didn't return to the game, but his performance thus far has been very shaky despite having 2 supremely talented WRs to throw to. Kitna has completed 57.7% of his passes, but only has a mediocre 5:5 TD:INT ratio. In week 2, with the Lions down 27-25, Kitna threw 3 consecutive INTs that lead to 21 GB points to completely blow a winnable game against a divisional rival. In week 3, his 146 yard, 1 TD, 1 INT performance well into the 4th quarter was horrible, although Mike Martz undoubtedly gave the SF defense the knowledge they needed to shut him down. Detroit is in panic mode, and at 0-3, they have little to lose by trying talented youngster Drew Stanton, which seems to be the media's choice over current 2nd stringer Dan Orlovsky. With a bye in week 4 and an ailing Kitna, a potential new starter would have 2 full weeks to get ready, which would be ideal if they make a QB change. Given the lack of experience that Orlovsky and Stanton have, plus the new offensive system they learned this offseason, I would downgrade CJ and Roy a bit if a change is made.
Gus Frerotte / Brian Griese - Frerotte and Griese have already taken over for Tavaris Jackson and Jeff Garcia, respectively. Both are low upside QB2 candidates, but I'd highly prefer Griese, because as he showed yesterday, TB will pass the ball a lot more than MIN will. Just don't expect Griese to be tossing it 60 times again.
Kansas City Chiefs - I thought Damon Huard was supposed to be on speed dial in week 3? Instead, Herm Edwards allowed Tyler Thigpen to stink up the joint. Thigpen did settle down after a disgusting 2/13, 12 yards, 3 INT start. Damon Huard undoubtedly gives KC the best chance to win right now, but clearly the Chiefs aren't concerned about winning right now. I don't even known why I'm wasting everybody's time writing about bad QBs who run a puke offense anyways. Dammit.
Week 4 - Walking Wounded
QB:
Donovan McNabb - McNabb went down early in the 2nd half with a bruised chest, but he returned to and finished the game. There is reportedly no structural damage and McNabb is on track to start in week 4. *edit* McNabb has missed practices all week and might be a gametime decision for gamemenship, but I still expect him to start. Given they play Sunday night, it's real risk unless you have a backup that plays Monday ready to go...
Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben missed a bit of time in the second half with an injured hand, but X-Rays were negative and Big Ben should be ready to go in week 4. Philly pounded him for 8 sacks, so it's no wonder he was a bit banged up. *edit* Big Ben will start in week 4.
Jon Kitna - Kitna went down with a sprained knee late in the second half and did not return to the game. There is reportedly no ligament damage to his knee, which is good news, but he's very much on the hot seat right now as he turned in another poor performance. The Lions have a bye in week 4. *edit* There is no news that Kitna will be replaced as a starter, and given the Lions could have used the extra week off to prepare the new starter, expect him to start in week 5.
RB:
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook's owners suffered a huge scare in week 3 when Westbrook landed awkwardly somewhat on top of a teammate, causing his left leg to buckle oddly as he landed. He did not return to the game, but luckily there appears to be no structural damage to his ankle. Monitor his practice reports, but the early prognosis is positive. *edit* Westbrook is a full blown gametime decision. His owners need to have Buckhalter or another Sunday night/Monday night runner ready in case Westbrook is down.
Willie Parker - Parker left late in week 3 with a sprained knee, and he has been ruled out for week 4. No idea how serious this is, and no MRI results have been posted as of yet. *edit* Parker is now out for both week 4 and 5. Mendenhall has two tough matchups, but can be used as a RB2 given your other alternatives/bye weeks.
Kevin Smith - This stupid fuck was in my lineup in a league this week. He didn't get hurt, but he whiffed on a blitz that led to a 12 yard sack, and he didn't see the field again. Unfortunately for his owners, Rudi Johnson looked very good. Smith is now entrenched in a RBBC.
Darren McFadden - McFadden started week 3, but shared carries with Michael Bush. Apparently he's no worse for the wear after the game, which is good news. He should start again in week 4, but he's no more than a RB3 until he proves that he'll dominate touches over Michael Bush. *edit* McFadden is apparently still limited by his toe and might be hobbled by it again in week 4. He's not a recommended start as he'll be splitting carries again at best.
WR:
David Patten - Patten strained his groin in week 3, which would be a shame as he would likely be the possession receiver on the Saints offense with Colston and Shockey out. Keep an eye on him heading into week 4 if you're planning on using him as a bye-week replacement. *edit* Patten has missed practices this week and is doubtful to play in week 4.
Reggie Brown - Brown returned from his injury, but he didn't have a catch. There is no reason to hang onto him at this point.
Roy Williams - No injury, although with the weekly complaints coming out of his overrated mouth, I'm sure his owners would prefer a bitten tongue.
Joey Galloway - Galloway is still injured, and has a decent chance of missing week 4 as well. *edit* Galloway is out in week 4. Antonio Bryant makes a very nice WR3 candidate in his place.
TE:
Jeremy Shockey - I covered Shockey's hernia surgery (out 3-6 weeks) in my previous post. *edit* He's out for week 4, obviously.
Donovan McNabb - McNabb went down early in the 2nd half with a bruised chest, but he returned to and finished the game. There is reportedly no structural damage and McNabb is on track to start in week 4. *edit* McNabb has missed practices all week and might be a gametime decision for gamemenship, but I still expect him to start. Given they play Sunday night, it's real risk unless you have a backup that plays Monday ready to go...
Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben missed a bit of time in the second half with an injured hand, but X-Rays were negative and Big Ben should be ready to go in week 4. Philly pounded him for 8 sacks, so it's no wonder he was a bit banged up. *edit* Big Ben will start in week 4.
Jon Kitna - Kitna went down with a sprained knee late in the second half and did not return to the game. There is reportedly no ligament damage to his knee, which is good news, but he's very much on the hot seat right now as he turned in another poor performance. The Lions have a bye in week 4. *edit* There is no news that Kitna will be replaced as a starter, and given the Lions could have used the extra week off to prepare the new starter, expect him to start in week 5.
RB:
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook's owners suffered a huge scare in week 3 when Westbrook landed awkwardly somewhat on top of a teammate, causing his left leg to buckle oddly as he landed. He did not return to the game, but luckily there appears to be no structural damage to his ankle. Monitor his practice reports, but the early prognosis is positive. *edit* Westbrook is a full blown gametime decision. His owners need to have Buckhalter or another Sunday night/Monday night runner ready in case Westbrook is down.
Willie Parker - Parker left late in week 3 with a sprained knee, and he has been ruled out for week 4. No idea how serious this is, and no MRI results have been posted as of yet. *edit* Parker is now out for both week 4 and 5. Mendenhall has two tough matchups, but can be used as a RB2 given your other alternatives/bye weeks.
Kevin Smith - This stupid fuck was in my lineup in a league this week. He didn't get hurt, but he whiffed on a blitz that led to a 12 yard sack, and he didn't see the field again. Unfortunately for his owners, Rudi Johnson looked very good. Smith is now entrenched in a RBBC.
Darren McFadden - McFadden started week 3, but shared carries with Michael Bush. Apparently he's no worse for the wear after the game, which is good news. He should start again in week 4, but he's no more than a RB3 until he proves that he'll dominate touches over Michael Bush. *edit* McFadden is apparently still limited by his toe and might be hobbled by it again in week 4. He's not a recommended start as he'll be splitting carries again at best.
WR:
David Patten - Patten strained his groin in week 3, which would be a shame as he would likely be the possession receiver on the Saints offense with Colston and Shockey out. Keep an eye on him heading into week 4 if you're planning on using him as a bye-week replacement. *edit* Patten has missed practices this week and is doubtful to play in week 4.
Reggie Brown - Brown returned from his injury, but he didn't have a catch. There is no reason to hang onto him at this point.
Roy Williams - No injury, although with the weekly complaints coming out of his overrated mouth, I'm sure his owners would prefer a bitten tongue.
Joey Galloway - Galloway is still injured, and has a decent chance of missing week 4 as well. *edit* Galloway is out in week 4. Antonio Bryant makes a very nice WR3 candidate in his place.
TE:
Jeremy Shockey - I covered Shockey's hernia surgery (out 3-6 weeks) in my previous post. *edit* He's out for week 4, obviously.
Saints TE Shockey To Undergo Hernia Surgery
New Orleans Saints TE Jeremy Shockey will undergo hernia surgery, and the estimate is that he'll be out from 3-6 weeks.
This injury has supposedly bothered Shockey all season, which helps explain his slow start.
Fantasy Impact: This obviously hurts those who drafted Shockey quite a bit, as he was likely a TE1 on your team. Hopefully you've learned from his injury history and kept a quality TE2 on your roster, but if you haven't, then waiver wire guys like John Carlson have probably already been claimed. I'll make sure to cover some potential TEs in my week 4 WW section coming up tomorrow given this significant injury. Billy Miller will help fill the role, but given his involvement over the past couple seasons, don't expect too much.
One might think the loss of Colston and Shockey are a death blow to the Saints passing game, and while their losses obviously thin out the pass catching talent pool of the Saints, it's not like you should be benching Drew Brees now. Shockey wasn't a part of the Saints high-flying passing attack the last two seasons, while Colston has missed a couple games, and been limited in others with various ailments over the past two seasons as well. You can't expect the best of Brees in the next month or so, but he'll still be a solid QB1 that will make the best use of those around him. Expect Robert Meachem's role to increase as he stands the most to benefit from the absence of both the Saints' top receiving talents. Also expect Bush to continue getting lots of touches.
This injury has supposedly bothered Shockey all season, which helps explain his slow start.
Fantasy Impact: This obviously hurts those who drafted Shockey quite a bit, as he was likely a TE1 on your team. Hopefully you've learned from his injury history and kept a quality TE2 on your roster, but if you haven't, then waiver wire guys like John Carlson have probably already been claimed. I'll make sure to cover some potential TEs in my week 4 WW section coming up tomorrow given this significant injury. Billy Miller will help fill the role, but given his involvement over the past couple seasons, don't expect too much.
One might think the loss of Colston and Shockey are a death blow to the Saints passing game, and while their losses obviously thin out the pass catching talent pool of the Saints, it's not like you should be benching Drew Brees now. Shockey wasn't a part of the Saints high-flying passing attack the last two seasons, while Colston has missed a couple games, and been limited in others with various ailments over the past two seasons as well. You can't expect the best of Brees in the next month or so, but he'll still be a solid QB1 that will make the best use of those around him. Expect Robert Meachem's role to increase as he stands the most to benefit from the absence of both the Saints' top receiving talents. Also expect Bush to continue getting lots of touches.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Week 3 Injury Updates
I've updated the walking wounded. I removed Michael Turner as the ankle problem turned out to be nothing, and updated just about everyone else. Darren McFadden is going to be tricky this weekend, and probably best avoided.
Willis McGahee owners should be rightfully scared. He's due back this week, but apparently will be splitting time on a bad offense. He's no longer a RB2 and should be benched until he proves otherwise.
Willis McGahee owners should be rightfully scared. He's due back this week, but apparently will be splitting time on a bad offense. He's no longer a RB2 and should be benched until he proves otherwise.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Seattle Adds WRs Koren Robinson, Keary Colbert
The Seattle Seahawks have signed free agent WR Koren Robinson, and they have also traded a late round draft pick to the Denver Broncos for WR Keary Colbert.
You have to feel bad for Mike Holmgren in his final season in Seattle. Deion Branch isn't back from his torn ACL, Bobby Engram broke his shoulder in the preseason, Nate Burleson tore his ACL in week 1, QB/WR Seneca Wallace injured his calf in week 2, and then Logan Payne tore his ACL in week 2. That left the Seahawks with struggling youngster Courtney Taylor, and a bunch of street free agents at the WR position heading into week 3.
Fantasy Impact: Koren Robinson is worth speculating on as a WR5 because he knows Hasselbeck, and he knows the Seattle offense. He'll undoubted be rusty, but that should be offset by his knowledge of the system. Robinson was drafted by the Seahawks in 2001, exploded for 1240 yards and 5 TDs in his second season in 2002, and then his career was marred by drops and off-field problems, leading to Seattle cutting him after the 2004 season. The offense hasn't changed since then, so he should feel pretty much at home. He'll have a couple weeks to emerge until Branch and Engram come back, and even then he will probably remain a starter outside with Branch opposite him and Engram in the slot.
Keary Colbert had a very promising rookie season in Carolina in 2004, but much like Michael Clayton from TB, he has disappeared since then. Denver was going to give him a chance, but with Marshall back, the emergence of Eddie Royal, the slot presence of Stokley, and the reliable veteran Darrell Jackson, there was no room for him anymore. Perhaps he'll fit into the WCO run in Seattle. Given his lack of production in years, there's no reason to go pick him up, but keep an eye on him just in case.
You have to feel bad for Mike Holmgren in his final season in Seattle. Deion Branch isn't back from his torn ACL, Bobby Engram broke his shoulder in the preseason, Nate Burleson tore his ACL in week 1, QB/WR Seneca Wallace injured his calf in week 2, and then Logan Payne tore his ACL in week 2. That left the Seahawks with struggling youngster Courtney Taylor, and a bunch of street free agents at the WR position heading into week 3.
Fantasy Impact: Koren Robinson is worth speculating on as a WR5 because he knows Hasselbeck, and he knows the Seattle offense. He'll undoubted be rusty, but that should be offset by his knowledge of the system. Robinson was drafted by the Seahawks in 2001, exploded for 1240 yards and 5 TDs in his second season in 2002, and then his career was marred by drops and off-field problems, leading to Seattle cutting him after the 2004 season. The offense hasn't changed since then, so he should feel pretty much at home. He'll have a couple weeks to emerge until Branch and Engram come back, and even then he will probably remain a starter outside with Branch opposite him and Engram in the slot.
Keary Colbert had a very promising rookie season in Carolina in 2004, but much like Michael Clayton from TB, he has disappeared since then. Denver was going to give him a chance, but with Marshall back, the emergence of Eddie Royal, the slot presence of Stokley, and the reliable veteran Darrell Jackson, there was no room for him anymore. Perhaps he'll fit into the WCO run in Seattle. Given his lack of production in years, there's no reason to go pick him up, but keep an eye on him just in case.
Week 3 Waiver Wire Possibilities
QB:
J.T. O'Sullivan - You should have been watching him all along after he won the SF job simply because he's a QB playing in a Mike Martz run offense, and now he's posted the first of what should be several 300 yard passing games. He's a great fit for Martz's offense as Martz seems to look for things that most offensive minds don't in their QBs. That's the only explanation for why he's made stars out of prevous nobodies like Trent Green, Kurt Warner, and Marc Bulger. He's going to be in a pass-first offense, with a great RB behind him and a receiving group that Martz mostly put together in the offseason. Check out your starter's bye week and see if O'Sullivan has a favorable matchup that week.
Trent Edwards - I'll mention him one more time. He's a good, smart QB that has an excellent primary target in Lee Evans, a solid running game, and the return of All-Pro Jason Peters to protect his blind-side. Like I said before, he's not going to post big numbers, but he'll be efficient and avoid a real stinker game in what's shaping up to be a solid offense for Buffalo.
Brian Griese - A watch candidate. Griese has taken over as the starter for TB, and he posted his best run as a starter in Gruden's TB offense back in 2004. TB doesn't have any top shelf talent at WR, but Gruden manages to make things work, and both Graham and Dunn are capable receivers out of the backfield. Just someone to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks.
Brady Quinn - By no means am I suggesting to go pick him up right now, but that's two bad games in a row for Derek Anderson, and more importantly, 2 losses in a row for Cleveland. Quinn will have the weapons to make him a QB2 at worst should he take over, so keep him on your watch list for now to see how Anderson performs the next couple weeks.
RB:
Darren Sproles - Sproles only played when LT was out of the game having his toe looked at, but he exploded for 53 rushing yards, 72 receiving yards, and 1 TD in the wake of LT's absence. Now there's absolutely no reason LT owners shouldn't already own him, but he's an excellent speculation candidate on the bench of any team. SD's offense is going to be strong with or without LT, and without LT means with Sproles. Extra value in PPR leagues.
Michael Bush - As the injuries mouted up in the Oakland backfield with Fargas going down with a potentially serious groin injury and McFadden leaving early with a case of turf toe, Michael Bush exploded for 16 carries, 90 yards, and a TD. A broken leg during his senior year at Louisville tumbled his draft stock, but Bush remains a very good talent as a quick footed, solid receiving back at the imposing size of 6'1, 245 lbs. Assuming Fargas suffered a serious injury (he was injured without getting hit, and was carted off), McFadden will start, but we all know turf toes are very trick. Bush is worth grabbing to see what happens to McFadden this week.
Tim Hightower - 2 weeks, 2 TDs. He's not getting a lot of touches as Edge remains the primary RB, but he's in on the money downs (passing, goal line), and he's be an every down RB should Edge get hurt. Edge has been remarkably durable over his career, but there's absolutely no reason that Hightower should be a free agent given his upside should an injury befall Edge.
Fred Jackson - Jackson has re-emerged as the 3rd down RB for the Bills, and he racked up 90 receiving yards with some nifty footwork after the catch. I don't see him as a primary RB should anything happen to Lynch, but he's valuable insurance for Lynch owners as he would pick up enough touches to at least consider using.
LaMont Jordan - After Maroney left injured, it was Jordan, and not Morris who dominated carries in the 2nd half of the Patriots game. Given the uncertain nature of Maroney's injury (he did return) and the Denver-like situation brewing here, don't bother with Jordan, but do keep him in mind.
WR:
Justin Gage - Gage posted 59 yards and a TD with Collins behind center. Collins unquestionably raises the fantasy value of the Titans WRs, but they still remain an uninspiring bunch. Gage should be the best of them, but that's really no better than WR3 material only in the most ideal matchups.
Brandon Lloyd - Lloyd looks to be emerging as Orton's primary target, but on the Bears passing attack, that's like being the 4th WR on a great passing attack. I'd pass, but don't completely forget about him.
Robert Meachem - Watch list candidate. Meachem posted a TD in his one and only catch. With Colston sidelined for likely another 5 games, Meachem could carve out some fantasy value and he is easily the most physically talented of the Saints WRs. Keep a close eye on him.
TE:
John Carlson - Amazingly enough after the breakout performances of TEs Donte Rosario and Anthony Fasano in week 1, it was the rookie John Carlson who improved while the other 2 disappeared. With all the WR injures in Seattle, Hasselbeck is out of BFFs to toss the pigskin with, but he is quickly developing trust in Carlson. Seattle praises his all-around ability at TE, and with 130 yards in his first two games, he needs to be rostered. Hasselbeck trusts him, and Seattle's offense has always had the ability to produce a TE1.
J.T. O'Sullivan - You should have been watching him all along after he won the SF job simply because he's a QB playing in a Mike Martz run offense, and now he's posted the first of what should be several 300 yard passing games. He's a great fit for Martz's offense as Martz seems to look for things that most offensive minds don't in their QBs. That's the only explanation for why he's made stars out of prevous nobodies like Trent Green, Kurt Warner, and Marc Bulger. He's going to be in a pass-first offense, with a great RB behind him and a receiving group that Martz mostly put together in the offseason. Check out your starter's bye week and see if O'Sullivan has a favorable matchup that week.
Trent Edwards - I'll mention him one more time. He's a good, smart QB that has an excellent primary target in Lee Evans, a solid running game, and the return of All-Pro Jason Peters to protect his blind-side. Like I said before, he's not going to post big numbers, but he'll be efficient and avoid a real stinker game in what's shaping up to be a solid offense for Buffalo.
Brian Griese - A watch candidate. Griese has taken over as the starter for TB, and he posted his best run as a starter in Gruden's TB offense back in 2004. TB doesn't have any top shelf talent at WR, but Gruden manages to make things work, and both Graham and Dunn are capable receivers out of the backfield. Just someone to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks.
Brady Quinn - By no means am I suggesting to go pick him up right now, but that's two bad games in a row for Derek Anderson, and more importantly, 2 losses in a row for Cleveland. Quinn will have the weapons to make him a QB2 at worst should he take over, so keep him on your watch list for now to see how Anderson performs the next couple weeks.
RB:
Darren Sproles - Sproles only played when LT was out of the game having his toe looked at, but he exploded for 53 rushing yards, 72 receiving yards, and 1 TD in the wake of LT's absence. Now there's absolutely no reason LT owners shouldn't already own him, but he's an excellent speculation candidate on the bench of any team. SD's offense is going to be strong with or without LT, and without LT means with Sproles. Extra value in PPR leagues.
Michael Bush - As the injuries mouted up in the Oakland backfield with Fargas going down with a potentially serious groin injury and McFadden leaving early with a case of turf toe, Michael Bush exploded for 16 carries, 90 yards, and a TD. A broken leg during his senior year at Louisville tumbled his draft stock, but Bush remains a very good talent as a quick footed, solid receiving back at the imposing size of 6'1, 245 lbs. Assuming Fargas suffered a serious injury (he was injured without getting hit, and was carted off), McFadden will start, but we all know turf toes are very trick. Bush is worth grabbing to see what happens to McFadden this week.
Tim Hightower - 2 weeks, 2 TDs. He's not getting a lot of touches as Edge remains the primary RB, but he's in on the money downs (passing, goal line), and he's be an every down RB should Edge get hurt. Edge has been remarkably durable over his career, but there's absolutely no reason that Hightower should be a free agent given his upside should an injury befall Edge.
Fred Jackson - Jackson has re-emerged as the 3rd down RB for the Bills, and he racked up 90 receiving yards with some nifty footwork after the catch. I don't see him as a primary RB should anything happen to Lynch, but he's valuable insurance for Lynch owners as he would pick up enough touches to at least consider using.
LaMont Jordan - After Maroney left injured, it was Jordan, and not Morris who dominated carries in the 2nd half of the Patriots game. Given the uncertain nature of Maroney's injury (he did return) and the Denver-like situation brewing here, don't bother with Jordan, but do keep him in mind.
WR:
Justin Gage - Gage posted 59 yards and a TD with Collins behind center. Collins unquestionably raises the fantasy value of the Titans WRs, but they still remain an uninspiring bunch. Gage should be the best of them, but that's really no better than WR3 material only in the most ideal matchups.
Brandon Lloyd - Lloyd looks to be emerging as Orton's primary target, but on the Bears passing attack, that's like being the 4th WR on a great passing attack. I'd pass, but don't completely forget about him.
Robert Meachem - Watch list candidate. Meachem posted a TD in his one and only catch. With Colston sidelined for likely another 5 games, Meachem could carve out some fantasy value and he is easily the most physically talented of the Saints WRs. Keep a close eye on him.
TE:
John Carlson - Amazingly enough after the breakout performances of TEs Donte Rosario and Anthony Fasano in week 1, it was the rookie John Carlson who improved while the other 2 disappeared. With all the WR injures in Seattle, Hasselbeck is out of BFFs to toss the pigskin with, but he is quickly developing trust in Carlson. Seattle praises his all-around ability at TE, and with 130 yards in his first two games, he needs to be rostered. Hasselbeck trusts him, and Seattle's offense has always had the ability to produce a TE1.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Week 3 - Walking Wounded
QB:
Carson Palmer - Palmer sprained his ankle in week 2, but it doesn't appear serious. Outside of the injury, you should be debating starting your QB2 at this rate. The offense is clearly a mess right now. *edit* He's probable and will start.
Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben is dealing with a separated AC joint in his shoulder. It appears that the injury is bothering him, but not to the point of limiting his play. His numbers have been underwhelming so far, but the blowout in week 1 negated the passing game in much of the 2nd half, and the windy/rainy weather conditions last night wreaked havoc on both teams. Given his 48 yard bomb to Holmes in the 2nd half, his arm strength is just fine. *edit* He's probable and will start.
RB:
LaDainian Tomlinson - The most famous toe in football right now. LT was clearly limited by his toe in week 2, and even had to miss some time during the game to have it looked at, but he did return later. Toe injuries are extremely trick and often remain a lingering problem for players, so this has become a concern for his owners. As long as he practices at some point this week, you simply can't sit him. *edit* He might be a game time decision on Monday night, but my guess is that he'll play.
Ryan Grant - Grant wasted a very promising matchup against the ghastly Lions defense in week 2 as he continues to be limited by his nagging hamstring. He has a tough matchup in week 3, and his practice time in leading up to week 3 needs to be monitored. *edit* Grant practiced on a limited basis this week, will probably be questionable, and might be a game time decision.
Justin Fargas - Fargas went down untouched running a pass pattern with a groin injury. He had to be carted off. The severity of the injury hasn't been released yet, but this could be pretty bad. *edit* Fargas is week to week, but is out for week 3.
Darren McFadden - This is horrible luck. McFadden owners watched Fargas go down with a groin injury in week 2, but then McFadden came up lame in the 4th quarter with a case of turf toe. Much like LT, this injury bears close montoring in regards to his practice schedule. Assuming Fargas misses week 3, McFadden will have a decent matchup against BUF, but not unless he's at full strength. *edit* McFadden practiced Thursday, but was very sore Friday and barely practiced. He's an official game time decision. If he starts, he's extremely risky as we saw with LT last weekend how this injury works. If he doesn't start, Michael Bush will be a solid RB2 play.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney left with a shoulder injury, although he did re-enter the game late. He continues to lose touches all over the place, and the fact he got nicked up again won't help his cause for being the primary RB. Given he re-entered the game, I can't imagine the injury is serious, but his injury is probably the lesser concern compared to his inconsistent time on the field. *edit* Maroney returned to practice on Friday, but he looks likely to share time at best. Don't start him.
WR:
Joey Galloway - Galloway sprained his foot on Sunday, and this could be an injury that threatens his availability for week 2. Keep a close eye on his practice reports. *edit* Galloway is week to week, and he is out week 3.
Sydney Rice - Rice sprained his PCL on Sunday. I'd say watch his practice reports, but that would infer that you're thinking about starting him. Unless your fantasy WR situation rivals the Seattle Seahawks, there's no reason for that.
Javon Walker - Walker's hamstring (and his mental state) are still a very large concern. Drop him if you haven't already.
Logan Payne - Payne instantly became a sleeper once all the injuries struck the Seattle WRs, but much like those ahead of him, Payne suffered a knee injury that will likely end his season. Drop him.
TE:
Antonio Gates - Gates continues to be a bit limited by his toe and hip, but he's put up two solid games despite the injuries. Expect him to improve as his injuries heal. *edit* Gates will start in week 3.
Ben Utecht - Utecht suffered a chest injury in week 2. He might miss week 3, but he's not worth wasting a roster spot on right now. *edit* Utecht is doubtful and won't play in week 3.
Carson Palmer - Palmer sprained his ankle in week 2, but it doesn't appear serious. Outside of the injury, you should be debating starting your QB2 at this rate. The offense is clearly a mess right now. *edit* He's probable and will start.
Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben is dealing with a separated AC joint in his shoulder. It appears that the injury is bothering him, but not to the point of limiting his play. His numbers have been underwhelming so far, but the blowout in week 1 negated the passing game in much of the 2nd half, and the windy/rainy weather conditions last night wreaked havoc on both teams. Given his 48 yard bomb to Holmes in the 2nd half, his arm strength is just fine. *edit* He's probable and will start.
RB:
LaDainian Tomlinson - The most famous toe in football right now. LT was clearly limited by his toe in week 2, and even had to miss some time during the game to have it looked at, but he did return later. Toe injuries are extremely trick and often remain a lingering problem for players, so this has become a concern for his owners. As long as he practices at some point this week, you simply can't sit him. *edit* He might be a game time decision on Monday night, but my guess is that he'll play.
Ryan Grant - Grant wasted a very promising matchup against the ghastly Lions defense in week 2 as he continues to be limited by his nagging hamstring. He has a tough matchup in week 3, and his practice time in leading up to week 3 needs to be monitored. *edit* Grant practiced on a limited basis this week, will probably be questionable, and might be a game time decision.
Justin Fargas - Fargas went down untouched running a pass pattern with a groin injury. He had to be carted off. The severity of the injury hasn't been released yet, but this could be pretty bad. *edit* Fargas is week to week, but is out for week 3.
Darren McFadden - This is horrible luck. McFadden owners watched Fargas go down with a groin injury in week 2, but then McFadden came up lame in the 4th quarter with a case of turf toe. Much like LT, this injury bears close montoring in regards to his practice schedule. Assuming Fargas misses week 3, McFadden will have a decent matchup against BUF, but not unless he's at full strength. *edit* McFadden practiced Thursday, but was very sore Friday and barely practiced. He's an official game time decision. If he starts, he's extremely risky as we saw with LT last weekend how this injury works. If he doesn't start, Michael Bush will be a solid RB2 play.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney left with a shoulder injury, although he did re-enter the game late. He continues to lose touches all over the place, and the fact he got nicked up again won't help his cause for being the primary RB. Given he re-entered the game, I can't imagine the injury is serious, but his injury is probably the lesser concern compared to his inconsistent time on the field. *edit* Maroney returned to practice on Friday, but he looks likely to share time at best. Don't start him.
WR:
Joey Galloway - Galloway sprained his foot on Sunday, and this could be an injury that threatens his availability for week 2. Keep a close eye on his practice reports. *edit* Galloway is week to week, and he is out week 3.
Sydney Rice - Rice sprained his PCL on Sunday. I'd say watch his practice reports, but that would infer that you're thinking about starting him. Unless your fantasy WR situation rivals the Seattle Seahawks, there's no reason for that.
Javon Walker - Walker's hamstring (and his mental state) are still a very large concern. Drop him if you haven't already.
Logan Payne - Payne instantly became a sleeper once all the injuries struck the Seattle WRs, but much like those ahead of him, Payne suffered a knee injury that will likely end his season. Drop him.
TE:
Antonio Gates - Gates continues to be a bit limited by his toe and hip, but he's put up two solid games despite the injuries. Expect him to improve as his injuries heal. *edit* Gates will start in week 3.
Ben Utecht - Utecht suffered a chest injury in week 2. He might miss week 3, but he's not worth wasting a roster spot on right now. *edit* Utecht is doubtful and won't play in week 3.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Week 2 Injury Updates
I've added a few updates into my injury report below for week 2. The biggest news is the continuing problems that Tomlinson is having with his toe, and how it's turned into a situation that could keep him out of week 2.
*update* Despite negative news all week so far, LT has returned to practice and is almost certain to play on Sunday.
*update* Despite negative news all week so far, LT has returned to practice and is almost certain to play on Sunday.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Saints WR Colston Undergoes Thumb Surgery
New Orleans Saints WR Marques Colston had undergone thumb surgery to fix a torn ligament. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Devery Henderson will likely assume the starting role opposite David Patten, with Lance Moore likely playing in the slot.
Fantasy Impact: This is obviously terrible news for Colston owners who likely drafted him as a WR1, so hopefully your depth is solid. Defenses will focus more on Jeremy Shockey, but he should receive more targets as a result. David Patten is the Saints WR most likely to emerge as a fantasy option as he finished 2nd on the team with 792 yards on 54 catches last season. Devery Henderson will be a deep threat, but he won't be targeted. Lance Moore will also see the field more often. Brees will likely spread it around, and both Shockey and Bush will likely be the most targeted receivers, but I feel Patten is worth a pickup if you need a 5th WR while Colston is out.
Drew Brees will be without his favorite target, but he should still post QB1 numbers. Colston is an elite talent, but the Saints offense has a way of making it work no matter who is on the field, and Colston has missed games before. The running game will also be used a bit more, giving Bush a bit more value, and the same for Pierre Thomas.
Devery Henderson will likely assume the starting role opposite David Patten, with Lance Moore likely playing in the slot.
Fantasy Impact: This is obviously terrible news for Colston owners who likely drafted him as a WR1, so hopefully your depth is solid. Defenses will focus more on Jeremy Shockey, but he should receive more targets as a result. David Patten is the Saints WR most likely to emerge as a fantasy option as he finished 2nd on the team with 792 yards on 54 catches last season. Devery Henderson will be a deep threat, but he won't be targeted. Lance Moore will also see the field more often. Brees will likely spread it around, and both Shockey and Bush will likely be the most targeted receivers, but I feel Patten is worth a pickup if you need a 5th WR while Colston is out.
Drew Brees will be without his favorite target, but he should still post QB1 numbers. Colston is an elite talent, but the Saints offense has a way of making it work no matter who is on the field, and Colston has missed games before. The running game will also be used a bit more, giving Bush a bit more value, and the same for Pierre Thomas.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Vince Young Situation
Seriously, what the hell is going on?
First of all, there was a report that came out this morning that Young was in a suicidal state last night and a call was made to Jeff Fisher. Fisher then helped track Young down. The team then towed the company line stating that he showed up to practice today, everything was fine, etc. Now, the Nashville Tennessean is reporting that Vince Young is again stating that he doesn't want to play football anymore, according to friends around him. He's reportedly battling depression, has seen a psychiatrist, etc. Reports questioning his own desire to play football also surfaced last year as well.
In a potentially related story, a friend passed this picture along to me:
http://brahsome.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/vince-young-shirtless.jpg
I don't want to take some picture off the Internet and blow something completely out of proportion, but it's very odd that he's out somewhere shirtless surrounded by a bunch of mostly shirtless guys. My friend and I got to talking about it, and if this picture is truly representative of his off-the-field lifestyle, it's possible that Vince Young is gay and having a horrible time trying to deal with it while playing in the NFL. This would explain his lack of desire to play football, his depression, etc. This is completely unfounded speculation on my part, but it's an interesting theory.
Fantasy Impact: Drop him. His injury will keep him out 2-4 weeks as is, and who knows what type of mental state he's in right now. It's completely up in the air how long it'll take him to get back on the field, if he does indeed play again. There isn't enough upside to warrant hanging onto him at this point and missing out on a player that will help your team. If I had to bet, we haven't heard the end of this story.
First of all, there was a report that came out this morning that Young was in a suicidal state last night and a call was made to Jeff Fisher. Fisher then helped track Young down. The team then towed the company line stating that he showed up to practice today, everything was fine, etc. Now, the Nashville Tennessean is reporting that Vince Young is again stating that he doesn't want to play football anymore, according to friends around him. He's reportedly battling depression, has seen a psychiatrist, etc. Reports questioning his own desire to play football also surfaced last year as well.
In a potentially related story, a friend passed this picture along to me:
http://brahsome.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/vince-young-shirtless.jpg
I don't want to take some picture off the Internet and blow something completely out of proportion, but it's very odd that he's out somewhere shirtless surrounded by a bunch of mostly shirtless guys. My friend and I got to talking about it, and if this picture is truly representative of his off-the-field lifestyle, it's possible that Vince Young is gay and having a horrible time trying to deal with it while playing in the NFL. This would explain his lack of desire to play football, his depression, etc. This is completely unfounded speculation on my part, but it's an interesting theory.
Fantasy Impact: Drop him. His injury will keep him out 2-4 weeks as is, and who knows what type of mental state he's in right now. It's completely up in the air how long it'll take him to get back on the field, if he does indeed play again. There isn't enough upside to warrant hanging onto him at this point and missing out on a player that will help your team. If I had to bet, we haven't heard the end of this story.
Week 2 Waiver Wire Possibilities
I'm going to discuss the top waiver wire players likely available in 10-12 man leagues by position each week this year. I know Yahoo has their waiver period end on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and I think most other leagues work this way too, but sometimes waivers don't occur until until the following day. At any rate, Tuesday is the best day to discuss and analyze what players are worth going after.
QB:
Trent Edwards - Edwards did not have a huge week 1 (215 yards, 1 TD), but he proved to Lee Evans owners that he'll make a concerted effort to get the ball to him. The talent at the receiving position outside of Evans is still questionable, but Edwards is a decent QB2 who has a low ceiling, but a high floor.
Chad Pennington - Pennington posted a very solid week 1 (251 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and has always been a capable NFL QB who is an accurate thrower. He's surrounded by young WRs (Ginn, Hagan, Bess) and a good, young TE in Anthony Fasano, plus both Ricky Williams and especially Ronnie Brown are capable in the passing game. Much like Edwards, he's a low ceiling, high floor QB2.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson appeared to be the same exact guy as last year, making questionable decisions and mis-firing on passes. However, much like with Vick, he was a big producer on the ground with 65 yards rushing. With Berrian and Rice both providing legit downfield threats and the defenses also keying on Adrian Peterson, Jackson should find consistent running room all season. He's still an interesting QB2 candidate, but one more likely to help you team in a very limited role in only the best of matchups.
RB:
Sammy Morris - He's back as Maroney's committee partner for a Patriots team likely to run the ball much more with Brady out for the season. He racked up 87 total yards and a TD, so he's worth stashing as a RB4/5.
Michael Pittman - Pittman emerged as the Denver goal line back, scoring 2 TDs, but Selvin Young also punched one in from 6 yards out late in the game. Shanahan madness is at it again, but Pittman is worth stashing as a RB5 to see how things shake out.
WR:
Greg Lewis / Hank Baskett - Both went over 100 yards against the Rams as McNabb had his way with the STL secondary. PHI will continue to rotate WRs all season long, making both guys very hard to count on in any sort of consistent fashion. It's a question mark as to when Reggie Brown will return, but I'd probably prefer Baskett as he's technically the starter opposite DeSean Jackson, and he's someone Philly has liked for a while. Lewis is a veteran who has never had much of a role. Oh yeah, and if DeSean Jackson is somehow available in your league feel free to use a top waiver spot on him.
Matt Jones - Jones has tantalized fantasy owners for the past several years with his freakish talent, but also his incredibly inconsistent play, which has lead to incredibly inconsistent playing time. With Jerry Porter ailing and no other WR stepping up, Matt Jones has a chance to finally cash in on his talent and emerge as a go-to option for the Jaguars. He's a very good WR5 to have stashed.
TE:
Week 1 was the week of the TE.
Anthony Fasano - Fasano is a Parcells favorite. Parcells drafted him in Dallas despite already having Jason Witten, and then traded for him after taking over in Miami, and Fasano was a favorite of Pennington last weekend. Fasano is a good blocker, so he's a true every-down TE. With the young and inexperience of the receiving core, Fasano could emerge as a primary option for Pennington despite him being young as well. I'd actually take him over Rosario.
Donte Rosario - Rosario stepped up huge in his 2008 debut with 96 yards and the game winning TD catch. Rosario is a legit TE that poses matchup problems, and he was talked about some during the preseason. He suffered a foot sprain during the game, but he's supposedly on track to start in week 2. He's worth speculating on to see what happens when Steve Smith returns. It's hard to call the injury-prone Hackett and the aging Muhammad legit number two options in this passing offense.
Bo Scaife - The least likely receiving option to top 100 yards in week 1. The Titans again have garbage at WR, and Scaife might post decent numbers for the passing game. I'm not sure what Crumpler was doing while Scaife was catching passes, but it's hard to imagine Scaife out-producing a healthy Crumpler. Don't waste your time.
David Martin - Martin also posted great numbers alongside Fasano with 53 yards and a TD, but Fasano is the clear starter and Martin isn't worth wasting a roster spot on.
Robert Royal - He posted a yard less than Martin with a TD. Royal had a couple solid games last year as well, but they were few and far between, so he's not worth grabbing either.
QB:
Trent Edwards - Edwards did not have a huge week 1 (215 yards, 1 TD), but he proved to Lee Evans owners that he'll make a concerted effort to get the ball to him. The talent at the receiving position outside of Evans is still questionable, but Edwards is a decent QB2 who has a low ceiling, but a high floor.
Chad Pennington - Pennington posted a very solid week 1 (251 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and has always been a capable NFL QB who is an accurate thrower. He's surrounded by young WRs (Ginn, Hagan, Bess) and a good, young TE in Anthony Fasano, plus both Ricky Williams and especially Ronnie Brown are capable in the passing game. Much like Edwards, he's a low ceiling, high floor QB2.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson appeared to be the same exact guy as last year, making questionable decisions and mis-firing on passes. However, much like with Vick, he was a big producer on the ground with 65 yards rushing. With Berrian and Rice both providing legit downfield threats and the defenses also keying on Adrian Peterson, Jackson should find consistent running room all season. He's still an interesting QB2 candidate, but one more likely to help you team in a very limited role in only the best of matchups.
RB:
Sammy Morris - He's back as Maroney's committee partner for a Patriots team likely to run the ball much more with Brady out for the season. He racked up 87 total yards and a TD, so he's worth stashing as a RB4/5.
Michael Pittman - Pittman emerged as the Denver goal line back, scoring 2 TDs, but Selvin Young also punched one in from 6 yards out late in the game. Shanahan madness is at it again, but Pittman is worth stashing as a RB5 to see how things shake out.
WR:
Greg Lewis / Hank Baskett - Both went over 100 yards against the Rams as McNabb had his way with the STL secondary. PHI will continue to rotate WRs all season long, making both guys very hard to count on in any sort of consistent fashion. It's a question mark as to when Reggie Brown will return, but I'd probably prefer Baskett as he's technically the starter opposite DeSean Jackson, and he's someone Philly has liked for a while. Lewis is a veteran who has never had much of a role. Oh yeah, and if DeSean Jackson is somehow available in your league feel free to use a top waiver spot on him.
Matt Jones - Jones has tantalized fantasy owners for the past several years with his freakish talent, but also his incredibly inconsistent play, which has lead to incredibly inconsistent playing time. With Jerry Porter ailing and no other WR stepping up, Matt Jones has a chance to finally cash in on his talent and emerge as a go-to option for the Jaguars. He's a very good WR5 to have stashed.
TE:
Week 1 was the week of the TE.
Anthony Fasano - Fasano is a Parcells favorite. Parcells drafted him in Dallas despite already having Jason Witten, and then traded for him after taking over in Miami, and Fasano was a favorite of Pennington last weekend. Fasano is a good blocker, so he's a true every-down TE. With the young and inexperience of the receiving core, Fasano could emerge as a primary option for Pennington despite him being young as well. I'd actually take him over Rosario.
Donte Rosario - Rosario stepped up huge in his 2008 debut with 96 yards and the game winning TD catch. Rosario is a legit TE that poses matchup problems, and he was talked about some during the preseason. He suffered a foot sprain during the game, but he's supposedly on track to start in week 2. He's worth speculating on to see what happens when Steve Smith returns. It's hard to call the injury-prone Hackett and the aging Muhammad legit number two options in this passing offense.
Bo Scaife - The least likely receiving option to top 100 yards in week 1. The Titans again have garbage at WR, and Scaife might post decent numbers for the passing game. I'm not sure what Crumpler was doing while Scaife was catching passes, but it's hard to imagine Scaife out-producing a healthy Crumpler. Don't waste your time.
David Martin - Martin also posted great numbers alongside Fasano with 53 yards and a TD, but Fasano is the clear starter and Martin isn't worth wasting a roster spot on.
Robert Royal - He posted a yard less than Martin with a TD. Royal had a couple solid games last year as well, but they were few and far between, so he's not worth grabbing either.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Week 2 - Walking Wounded
I'll wrap up the injuries heading into week 2 here.
QB:
Tom Brady - Torn ACL (possibly more), out for the season. Drop him in all redraft leagues. Downgrade the entire offense, obviously, as the extra carries the running game is likely in store for will offset the scoring chances lost by a less productive offense. Hopefully you heeded my over-valued call on Brady this year. I obviously wasn't expecting this, but he certainly isn't matching last season's production now. Matt Cassel will be the starter unless he stinks up the joint.
Vince Young - Torn MCL, out for 2-4 weeks. I'd keep him if possible because there's still untapped upside and he is a hard worker and a winner. Don't sacrifice a valuable RB or anyone like that if you need a backup QB before he returns, though. I wouldn't adjust the Titans offensive players, really. Kerry Collins will fill in.
Brodie Croyle - Separated shoulder, out for 2-4 weeks. He shouldn't be on a 10-12 team roster anyways, but drop him if he is. Upgrade Chiefs offensive players as Damon Huard is a solid veteran who should move the offense more efficiently.
Alex Smith - Fractured shoulder, out for the season. Dunno why you'd have him, but drop him if you do.
RB:
LaDainian Tomlinson - Turf toe, day to day. LT mentioned after the game that he hurt his toe, but that it wasn't serious. This doesn't seem to be a big issue at the moment, but keep an eye on it. *update* LT returned to a full practice on Friday and looks likely to play on Sunday. I'd have Sproles lined up just in case, but it looks like the worries thus far should prove fruitless.
Marion Barber - Bruised ribs, day to day. I have him on both my teams, so I was obviously concerned when he left the game and didn't return. X-Rays were negative, all reports have been positive so far, and Barber himself stated that he didn't expect to miss any time. Keep an eye on his practice schedule, but he should be good to go on Monday night. *update* Practiced without any problem. No issue here anymore, and Barber is ready to go in week 2.
Joseph Addai - "Head injury", day to day. Lance Briggs about decapitated him last night, and he didn't return. Given his penchant for suffering minor injuries, keep an eye on his practice schedule. This shouldn't be a major concern, though. *update* Addai has practiced all week and will be ready to go in week 2.
Maurice Morris - Knee sprain, out for week 2. Morris is scheduled to undergo a MRI today to find out what's wrong with his knee. There's still no news on exactly what is wrong, but he won't play this coming week. Julius Jones is a potential RB2 option.
Darren McFadden - Neck stinger, day to day. McFadden left Monday night's game in the 2nd half with a shoulder injury and did not return. Given the nature of the blowout that was happening, that's probably why he was kept out. It doesn't appear to be a big concern. *update* McFadden has practiced without problems and is ready to go in week 2.
Pierre Thomas - Ankle injury. Thomas left the game with a minor ankle injury, and shouldn't have any problems. *update* Thomas hasn't missed practice time and will be ready to go in week 2.
WR:
Nate Burleson - Torn ACL, out for the season. Burleson's knee buckled on him as he came out of a cut in a route, and he tore his ACL. He was easily the most consistent WR for Seattle on Sunday, so the passing game is now without a proven wideout on the entire team. This is horrible news for Matt Hasselbeck.
Drew Bennett - Fractured foot, out 6-8 weeks. Drop him. Bennett took an awkward hit and was immediately in a lot of pain. He might eventually be placed on IR depending on what happens to the roster during his recovery. Bennett was the only capable WR the Rams have outside of Holt, so this is bad news for the Rams passing game. Expect Holt to face double-teams almost every down.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Knee sprain, unknown. Like others above him, Clark left the game with a knee sprain and did not return. *update* There is no timetable on Clark's return, and he is questionable for week 2. He appears unlikely to play, however. Look elsewhere if you haven't picked up someone like Rosario or Fasano already. John Carlson is another option.
OL:
Vince Manuwai/Maurice Williams - Manuwai tore his ACL while Williams tore his biceps. Manuwai is gone for the year, and Williams is gone for at least two months, possibly the season as well. These two were the starting guards for the the Jaguars. Plus, top G backup Uche Nwaneri also suffered a knee injury. This is horrible news for the Jaguars offense, especially Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.
QB:
Tom Brady - Torn ACL (possibly more), out for the season. Drop him in all redraft leagues. Downgrade the entire offense, obviously, as the extra carries the running game is likely in store for will offset the scoring chances lost by a less productive offense. Hopefully you heeded my over-valued call on Brady this year. I obviously wasn't expecting this, but he certainly isn't matching last season's production now. Matt Cassel will be the starter unless he stinks up the joint.
Vince Young - Torn MCL, out for 2-4 weeks. I'd keep him if possible because there's still untapped upside and he is a hard worker and a winner. Don't sacrifice a valuable RB or anyone like that if you need a backup QB before he returns, though. I wouldn't adjust the Titans offensive players, really. Kerry Collins will fill in.
Brodie Croyle - Separated shoulder, out for 2-4 weeks. He shouldn't be on a 10-12 team roster anyways, but drop him if he is. Upgrade Chiefs offensive players as Damon Huard is a solid veteran who should move the offense more efficiently.
Alex Smith - Fractured shoulder, out for the season. Dunno why you'd have him, but drop him if you do.
RB:
LaDainian Tomlinson - Turf toe, day to day. LT mentioned after the game that he hurt his toe, but that it wasn't serious. This doesn't seem to be a big issue at the moment, but keep an eye on it. *update* LT returned to a full practice on Friday and looks likely to play on Sunday. I'd have Sproles lined up just in case, but it looks like the worries thus far should prove fruitless.
Marion Barber - Bruised ribs, day to day. I have him on both my teams, so I was obviously concerned when he left the game and didn't return. X-Rays were negative, all reports have been positive so far, and Barber himself stated that he didn't expect to miss any time. Keep an eye on his practice schedule, but he should be good to go on Monday night. *update* Practiced without any problem. No issue here anymore, and Barber is ready to go in week 2.
Joseph Addai - "Head injury", day to day. Lance Briggs about decapitated him last night, and he didn't return. Given his penchant for suffering minor injuries, keep an eye on his practice schedule. This shouldn't be a major concern, though. *update* Addai has practiced all week and will be ready to go in week 2.
Maurice Morris - Knee sprain, out for week 2. Morris is scheduled to undergo a MRI today to find out what's wrong with his knee. There's still no news on exactly what is wrong, but he won't play this coming week. Julius Jones is a potential RB2 option.
Darren McFadden - Neck stinger, day to day. McFadden left Monday night's game in the 2nd half with a shoulder injury and did not return. Given the nature of the blowout that was happening, that's probably why he was kept out. It doesn't appear to be a big concern. *update* McFadden has practiced without problems and is ready to go in week 2.
Pierre Thomas - Ankle injury. Thomas left the game with a minor ankle injury, and shouldn't have any problems. *update* Thomas hasn't missed practice time and will be ready to go in week 2.
WR:
Nate Burleson - Torn ACL, out for the season. Burleson's knee buckled on him as he came out of a cut in a route, and he tore his ACL. He was easily the most consistent WR for Seattle on Sunday, so the passing game is now without a proven wideout on the entire team. This is horrible news for Matt Hasselbeck.
Drew Bennett - Fractured foot, out 6-8 weeks. Drop him. Bennett took an awkward hit and was immediately in a lot of pain. He might eventually be placed on IR depending on what happens to the roster during his recovery. Bennett was the only capable WR the Rams have outside of Holt, so this is bad news for the Rams passing game. Expect Holt to face double-teams almost every down.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Knee sprain, unknown. Like others above him, Clark left the game with a knee sprain and did not return. *update* There is no timetable on Clark's return, and he is questionable for week 2. He appears unlikely to play, however. Look elsewhere if you haven't picked up someone like Rosario or Fasano already. John Carlson is another option.
OL:
Vince Manuwai/Maurice Williams - Manuwai tore his ACL while Williams tore his biceps. Manuwai is gone for the year, and Williams is gone for at least two months, possibly the season as well. These two were the starting guards for the the Jaguars. Plus, top G backup Uche Nwaneri also suffered a knee injury. This is horrible news for the Jaguars offense, especially Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall Suspension Reduced To 1 Game
The Denver Broncos received great news when star WR Brandon Marshall had his 2-3 game suspension reduced to 1 game.
Fantasy Impact: Sorry I'm a little late with this one, but I'm currently on vacation through Wednesday.
This is obviously great news for all Marshall owners as he will only miss 1 game, and then return to being WR1 material for the rest of the season. This is also great news for Jay Cutler owners as his #1 target will only miss one game.
Given Cutler will be facing what projects to be a stout Oakland secondary in week 1 without Marshall, I suggest sitting him down for that one depending on your backup QB situation. I'll be starting Warner @ SF over him in one league, but given my backup is O'Sullivan in the other league, I gotta suck it up with Cutler in that one. Dammit.
Fantasy Impact: Sorry I'm a little late with this one, but I'm currently on vacation through Wednesday.
This is obviously great news for all Marshall owners as he will only miss 1 game, and then return to being WR1 material for the rest of the season. This is also great news for Jay Cutler owners as his #1 target will only miss one game.
Given Cutler will be facing what projects to be a stout Oakland secondary in week 1 without Marshall, I suggest sitting him down for that one depending on your backup QB situation. I'll be starting Warner @ SF over him in one league, but given my backup is O'Sullivan in the other league, I gotta suck it up with Cutler in that one. Dammit.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Bengals RB Situation
So yeah, the Cincinnati Bengals RB situation is a complete mess right now. Here's how I break down the candidates...very literally in the case of Rudi Johnson.
Rudi Johnson - After bursting onto the scene in 2003 when Corey Dillon dealt with various injuries, Rudi Johnson was one of FF's most productive RBs between 2004 and 2006, going over 1400 total yards with 12 TDs each season. 3 straight seasons of 350+ touches caught up to Rudi last year as he was hampered by a hamstring injury that bothered from from week 3 onwards. That hamstring injury has continued to be a problem this preseason, and now there's rumors of him being traded. Given what little he's shown since the start of last season, it's hard to imagine a team giving up anything for him. Don't bother drafting him as he won't be on the Bengals final roster.
Kenny Watson - Watson had 4 games with 19+ carries last year, totaling 417 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs in those 4 games. Like Rudi, Watson isn't a flashy runner, but he's powerful and drives through tacklers. Unlike Rudi, Watson is very proficient in the passing game as a legit threat coming out of the backfield. Watson is worth drafting in the last couple rounds as a RB5. You might wonder why Watson isn't handed the starting gig, which brings me to....
Chris Perry - I watched Chris Perry run at Michigan, and the only thing that has ever held him back at any level has been his injuries. He's a talented, well-rounded back who combines speed, power, and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy for once, which has only happened once for a 14 game stretch in 2005, he will be a definite fantasy asset this year. He has the perfect skill set for what the Bengals like to do on offense. I would imagine the Bengals will be careful with his workload given his durability concerns, but he should be plenty productive. There's no way you can count on him staying healthy, but he's a very intriguing RB4 selection and should start in week 1.
Rudi Johnson - After bursting onto the scene in 2003 when Corey Dillon dealt with various injuries, Rudi Johnson was one of FF's most productive RBs between 2004 and 2006, going over 1400 total yards with 12 TDs each season. 3 straight seasons of 350+ touches caught up to Rudi last year as he was hampered by a hamstring injury that bothered from from week 3 onwards. That hamstring injury has continued to be a problem this preseason, and now there's rumors of him being traded. Given what little he's shown since the start of last season, it's hard to imagine a team giving up anything for him. Don't bother drafting him as he won't be on the Bengals final roster.
Kenny Watson - Watson had 4 games with 19+ carries last year, totaling 417 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs in those 4 games. Like Rudi, Watson isn't a flashy runner, but he's powerful and drives through tacklers. Unlike Rudi, Watson is very proficient in the passing game as a legit threat coming out of the backfield. Watson is worth drafting in the last couple rounds as a RB5. You might wonder why Watson isn't handed the starting gig, which brings me to....
Chris Perry - I watched Chris Perry run at Michigan, and the only thing that has ever held him back at any level has been his injuries. He's a talented, well-rounded back who combines speed, power, and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy for once, which has only happened once for a 14 game stretch in 2005, he will be a definite fantasy asset this year. He has the perfect skill set for what the Bengals like to do on offense. I would imagine the Bengals will be careful with his workload given his durability concerns, but he should be plenty productive. There's no way you can count on him staying healthy, but he's a very intriguing RB4 selection and should start in week 1.
Monday, August 25, 2008
My 2 Drafts
First of all, I'd like to apologize for the problems I've had ranking the top 3-4 RBs after Tomlinson and Peterson. There's a lot of good and bad to all of them. After I considered everything, I ended up selecting Marion Barber #3 overall (non-PPR). There's a chance he may wear down as the primary ball carrier, but he did have 248 touches last season. The Cowboys will monitor his workload and not go overboard, plus he's in such a great position to succeed. The Cowboys line is great, and their passing game is among the elite. Barber is great near the goal line and is also an accomplished contributor in the passing game. They Cowboys will use Felix Jones, but Barber is a special talent. My original stance was avoiding first time RBs, but really only Addai had a huge downgrade in performance in the 2nd half of last season. Lynch and Peterson both suffered minor injuries, but their performance didn't suffer that much, if at all, when they returned.
My first roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (7.03), Kurt Warner (14.10)
Thoughts: There's a chance Brandon Marshall will only miss one game, which is good news for Cutler. Beat writers also believe the Broncos will be a pass-first team this season given the uncertainty of the power running game. Cutler has looked amazing this preseason, and he's primed for a third year leap. I loved the fact I was able to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs before having to take my QB. The news about Warner broke an hour before the draft, so I was able to get him really late...don't expect that to happen now. He's a great backup with QB1 upside.
RB: Marion Barber (1.03), Darren McFadden (4.10), Kevin Smith (6.10), DeAngelo Williamss (9.03), Chris Perry (10.10), Andre Hall (12.10)
Thoughts: I might kick myself for not taking Jones-Drew in the third, especially since Holt fell all the way to the 4th, but obviously I had no idea that would happen at the time. I'm without a proven RB2, but I think I made up for it with quantity. McFadden has upside and might start eventually. He'll play plenty. Kevin Smith will start and get the majority of the carries for Detroit, so he's my starter for now. DeAngelo Williams is the starter in name, and given how far he slipped with the manlove for Jonathan Stewart, he was good value this late. Chris Perry is technically the starter for Cincy at the moment. Perry has the most talent of any Cincy RB as he can do everything well, but as usual, health will determine what he's able to produce. Andre Hall will likely start a few games for Denver at some point this year, and he's the favored goal line RB over Selvin Young right now. Some in Denver believe he's the best RB on their roster.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2.10), Steve Smith (3.03), Jerricho Cotchery (5.03), Vincent Jackson (8.10), Courtney Taylor (15.03)
Thoughts: Fitzgerald was another result of the Kurt Warner news. I was pissed because Andre Johnson and Marques Colston were picked in succession right before my turn, leaving me without either of my preferred WR1s. As is, Warner likely starting week 1 allowed me to have more confidence in taking Fitzgerald. My other choice was TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I just don't like him as a WR1. We'll see how that pans out. Steve Smith is going to be a monster when he returns...that revamped Carolina running game is going to open things up for him. Jerricho Cotchery is going light it up with Brett Favre as his QB...he's exactly the kind of WR Favre likes. I selected Vincent Jackson to be my WR3 while Smith serves his suspension as I expect a fast start from him with Antonio Gates likely to start a bit slow. I focused on my RBs later on, so I took a flier on Courtney Taylor, arguably Seattle's most talented healthy WR.
TE: Owen Daniels (11.03)
Thoughts: I didn't have to take him til the 11th round, which allowed me to focus on everything else until then. I love the value, and I expect him to be the secondary target to Andre Johnson in a very productive Texans passing offense.
Overall Thoughts: I'm happy with my team. I hope one or two of my RBs behind Barber emerges as an every week option, I hope that Vincent Jackson can do a fine job filling in for Steve Smith the first two weeks, and I hope that Warner is the starter for most of the year so I can get the most out of Fitzgerald.
My second roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (8.04), J.T. O'Sullivan (13.09)
Thoughts: Ugh, I waited too long for a backup QB. I did a nice job realizing that picks 10-12 had a starting QB already, so I was able to wait one extra round for Cutler. I simply took the highest upside guy left. Warner went in the 10th, so I missed out on him. Kitna and Campbell went right before me. I'll be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for a backup.
RB: Marion Barber (1.09), Michael Turner (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (6.04), Ricky Williams (9.09), Felix Jones (10.04), Chris Perry (12.04)
Thoughts: I was absolutely elated to see Barber fall further than normal. This RB group is a bit stronger than my other team. Turner won't catch passes, but he'll be the workhorse for the Falcons offense. If Matt Ryan can turn in a solid rookie year and keep defenses from stacking the box, Turner should post a solid year. Stewart fell farther than I expected, so I jumped on him. I really like his potential, and he proved healthy with a 50 yard TD run last weekend. Ricky Williams looks rejuvenated in Miami and will dominate the backfield for the start of the season. Felix Jones is solid Barber insurance, but I'm kicking myself for not taking Ray Rice instead. I obviously like Chris Perry.
WR: Andre Johnson (2.04), Brandon Marshall (3.09), Lee Evans (5.09), Vincent Jackson (7.09), Courtney Taylor (15.09)
Thoughts: I got my man AJ, but Steve Smith didn't fall, so I got Marshall instead. Marshall was the last of my top 2 tier WRs left, so I snagged him a round early. Cotchery was gone, but Evans should benefit from Edwards consistency, and he was my other preferred WR3 this year. Jackson will serve the same purpose here, but for Marshall instead of Smith. Another swing with Taylor.
TE: Tony Scheffler (10.09)
Thoughts: I took him over Owen Daniels (Scheffler went early in my other league), and I might regret that, but I liked both TEs as breakout candidates. Cutler really likes Scheffler, and he'll benefit early on with Marshall out. We'll see what happens here.
Overall Thoughts: I'm a bit happier with this team due to my better RB situation. I also have a safer WR1 as AJ was a stud with Rosenfels last year too, so if Schaub gets hurt, I can still trust him to post great numbers. This league was with some guys who don't pay as much attention to FF, so I expected to have a stronger team here.
My first roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (7.03), Kurt Warner (14.10)
Thoughts: There's a chance Brandon Marshall will only miss one game, which is good news for Cutler. Beat writers also believe the Broncos will be a pass-first team this season given the uncertainty of the power running game. Cutler has looked amazing this preseason, and he's primed for a third year leap. I loved the fact I was able to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs before having to take my QB. The news about Warner broke an hour before the draft, so I was able to get him really late...don't expect that to happen now. He's a great backup with QB1 upside.
RB: Marion Barber (1.03), Darren McFadden (4.10), Kevin Smith (6.10), DeAngelo Williamss (9.03), Chris Perry (10.10), Andre Hall (12.10)
Thoughts: I might kick myself for not taking Jones-Drew in the third, especially since Holt fell all the way to the 4th, but obviously I had no idea that would happen at the time. I'm without a proven RB2, but I think I made up for it with quantity. McFadden has upside and might start eventually. He'll play plenty. Kevin Smith will start and get the majority of the carries for Detroit, so he's my starter for now. DeAngelo Williams is the starter in name, and given how far he slipped with the manlove for Jonathan Stewart, he was good value this late. Chris Perry is technically the starter for Cincy at the moment. Perry has the most talent of any Cincy RB as he can do everything well, but as usual, health will determine what he's able to produce. Andre Hall will likely start a few games for Denver at some point this year, and he's the favored goal line RB over Selvin Young right now. Some in Denver believe he's the best RB on their roster.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (2.10), Steve Smith (3.03), Jerricho Cotchery (5.03), Vincent Jackson (8.10), Courtney Taylor (15.03)
Thoughts: Fitzgerald was another result of the Kurt Warner news. I was pissed because Andre Johnson and Marques Colston were picked in succession right before my turn, leaving me without either of my preferred WR1s. As is, Warner likely starting week 1 allowed me to have more confidence in taking Fitzgerald. My other choice was TJ Houshmandzadeh, but I just don't like him as a WR1. We'll see how that pans out. Steve Smith is going to be a monster when he returns...that revamped Carolina running game is going to open things up for him. Jerricho Cotchery is going light it up with Brett Favre as his QB...he's exactly the kind of WR Favre likes. I selected Vincent Jackson to be my WR3 while Smith serves his suspension as I expect a fast start from him with Antonio Gates likely to start a bit slow. I focused on my RBs later on, so I took a flier on Courtney Taylor, arguably Seattle's most talented healthy WR.
TE: Owen Daniels (11.03)
Thoughts: I didn't have to take him til the 11th round, which allowed me to focus on everything else until then. I love the value, and I expect him to be the secondary target to Andre Johnson in a very productive Texans passing offense.
Overall Thoughts: I'm happy with my team. I hope one or two of my RBs behind Barber emerges as an every week option, I hope that Vincent Jackson can do a fine job filling in for Steve Smith the first two weeks, and I hope that Warner is the starter for most of the year so I can get the most out of Fitzgerald.
My second roster and analysis looks like this:
QB: Jay Cutler (8.04), J.T. O'Sullivan (13.09)
Thoughts: Ugh, I waited too long for a backup QB. I did a nice job realizing that picks 10-12 had a starting QB already, so I was able to wait one extra round for Cutler. I simply took the highest upside guy left. Warner went in the 10th, so I missed out on him. Kitna and Campbell went right before me. I'll be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire for a backup.
RB: Marion Barber (1.09), Michael Turner (4.04), Jonathan Stewart (6.04), Ricky Williams (9.09), Felix Jones (10.04), Chris Perry (12.04)
Thoughts: I was absolutely elated to see Barber fall further than normal. This RB group is a bit stronger than my other team. Turner won't catch passes, but he'll be the workhorse for the Falcons offense. If Matt Ryan can turn in a solid rookie year and keep defenses from stacking the box, Turner should post a solid year. Stewart fell farther than I expected, so I jumped on him. I really like his potential, and he proved healthy with a 50 yard TD run last weekend. Ricky Williams looks rejuvenated in Miami and will dominate the backfield for the start of the season. Felix Jones is solid Barber insurance, but I'm kicking myself for not taking Ray Rice instead. I obviously like Chris Perry.
WR: Andre Johnson (2.04), Brandon Marshall (3.09), Lee Evans (5.09), Vincent Jackson (7.09), Courtney Taylor (15.09)
Thoughts: I got my man AJ, but Steve Smith didn't fall, so I got Marshall instead. Marshall was the last of my top 2 tier WRs left, so I snagged him a round early. Cotchery was gone, but Evans should benefit from Edwards consistency, and he was my other preferred WR3 this year. Jackson will serve the same purpose here, but for Marshall instead of Smith. Another swing with Taylor.
TE: Tony Scheffler (10.09)
Thoughts: I took him over Owen Daniels (Scheffler went early in my other league), and I might regret that, but I liked both TEs as breakout candidates. Cutler really likes Scheffler, and he'll benefit early on with Marshall out. We'll see what happens here.
Overall Thoughts: I'm a bit happier with this team due to my better RB situation. I also have a safer WR1 as AJ was a stud with Rosenfels last year too, so if Schaub gets hurt, I can still trust him to post great numbers. This league was with some guys who don't pay as much attention to FF, so I expected to have a stronger team here.
Bengals WR Chad Johnson Reportedly Has Torn Labrum
Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Johnson reportedly has a torn labrum in his shoulder, but he plans to avoid surgery and play through the injury.
Johnson suffered the injury in week 2 of the preseason.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Chad Johnson a very risky pick. He's being selected among the top 12 WRs, so owners are expecting him to be a WR1. I really liked him as being undervalued before the preseason started, but this obviously changes my opinion on him. There's a chance that he can make it through the season, posting his usual WR1 numbers, and then undergo surgery next offseason, but at what probability after he starts getting hit? Personally, I wouldn't draft him in the top 20 WRs anymore. You're not doing your fantasy team any good by making risky selections early on in the draft, so it's best to take surer things.
This also dims my optimism on Carson Palmer, who just seems to be cursed at this point. Palmer is a great NFL QB, but he's in a rough situation here. Palmer is certainly still QB1 material, but represents less upside with only Housh looking 100% for week 1. CJ will be a question mark, but he will get Chris Henry back after the first 4 weeks. I'd still draft Palmer in rounds 5-6, but I wouldn't reach for him in the 4th anymore. Housh will benefit from CJ across the field from him, and he'll also get more targets if CJ goes down. Chris Henry's return would help ease the defensive attention as well, so Housh is a solid late WR1 if you can get him as such.
Johnson suffered the injury in week 2 of the preseason.
Fantasy Impact: This makes Chad Johnson a very risky pick. He's being selected among the top 12 WRs, so owners are expecting him to be a WR1. I really liked him as being undervalued before the preseason started, but this obviously changes my opinion on him. There's a chance that he can make it through the season, posting his usual WR1 numbers, and then undergo surgery next offseason, but at what probability after he starts getting hit? Personally, I wouldn't draft him in the top 20 WRs anymore. You're not doing your fantasy team any good by making risky selections early on in the draft, so it's best to take surer things.
This also dims my optimism on Carson Palmer, who just seems to be cursed at this point. Palmer is a great NFL QB, but he's in a rough situation here. Palmer is certainly still QB1 material, but represents less upside with only Housh looking 100% for week 1. CJ will be a question mark, but he will get Chris Henry back after the first 4 weeks. I'd still draft Palmer in rounds 5-6, but I wouldn't reach for him in the 4th anymore. Housh will benefit from CJ across the field from him, and he'll also get more targets if CJ goes down. Chris Henry's return would help ease the defensive attention as well, so Housh is a solid late WR1 if you can get him as such.
Kurt Warner Reportedly Named Arizona's Starting QB
Kurt Warner has reportedly been named the new Arizona Cardinals starting QB, replacing Matt Leinart.
Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt has reportedly denied this claim, but there's absolutely nothing in Leinart's preseason performances that has inspired any confidence that he can get the job done. There's no question that Warner gives the Cardinals the best chance to win. I'm pretty sure Warner will be starting in week 1.
Fantasy Impact: Kurt Warner becomes very draftable, while Matt Leinart should be taken off of draft lists. Warner is a somewhat risky QB1 if starting, and Leinart is a very risky QB2 with no job security. Of bigger news here is Fitzgerald and Boldin. Fitzgerald, usually drafted among the top 5 WRs, can actually fulfill this promise with Warner behind center. He's appropriately valued if Warner is going to start, but he's over-valued if Leinart starts. Boldin's run-after-the-catch game should succeed under both QBs, so he's a solid WR2 under either scenario, although Warner is the preferred option under center for him as well.
Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt has reportedly denied this claim, but there's absolutely nothing in Leinart's preseason performances that has inspired any confidence that he can get the job done. There's no question that Warner gives the Cardinals the best chance to win. I'm pretty sure Warner will be starting in week 1.
Fantasy Impact: Kurt Warner becomes very draftable, while Matt Leinart should be taken off of draft lists. Warner is a somewhat risky QB1 if starting, and Leinart is a very risky QB2 with no job security. Of bigger news here is Fitzgerald and Boldin. Fitzgerald, usually drafted among the top 5 WRs, can actually fulfill this promise with Warner behind center. He's appropriately valued if Warner is going to start, but he's over-valued if Leinart starts. Boldin's run-after-the-catch game should succeed under both QBs, so he's a solid WR2 under either scenario, although Warner is the preferred option under center for him as well.
Friday, August 22, 2008
The #3 Pick
It's been a long hard road for my brain as I sorted through the candidates for the #3 pick. Here's my thoughts on the top 3 after much consideration:
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately he is stuck on a very mediocre, possibly bad offensive situation. His offensive line is already banged up a bit, losing their two top backups (Brandon Gorin and Mark Setterstrom), and Pace suffered a scare while injuring the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. Their starting line is intact, for now, but they have no depth. Torry Holt is still a great WR, but he isn't the deep threat he once was after several years of knee problems. Isaac Bruce is gone, and he is replaced by Drew Bennett, who was miserable as their slot WR last year. Bennett has reportedly had a good camp, but the Rams NEED him to step up to keep attention away from Holt. There's nothing behind Bennett worth mentioning. Randy McMichael could re-emerge under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who has a history of getting the most out of his TEs (KC - Gonzalez, WAS - Cooley). Saunders runs a great scheme, similar to Martz, so the transition won't be so bad. I've already detailed the injury concerns of his 2006 370 f/carry season and what it means for him moving forward, and now we have to add in the holdout. Dick Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, noted a study that he did showing that players who hold out have shown a higher likelihood of getting injured. That's 2 strikes against Jackson. All in all, that's some scary territory coupled with an uncertain offensive situation.
Joseph Addai - Joseph Addai exploded onto the scene last year, but as I noted in his wrap-up, he posted an alarming slide in the 2nd half. Addai simply has never been a workhorse back at either the collegiate level at LSU, or the pro level until last season. Addai also isn't a special RB...he's simply a well-rounded RB who does everything good, but not great. With the uncertain health regarding Manning, Addai could NOT carry this team by himself. He's just not that type of RB. Addai is more reliant on his situation than any of the top 3 RBs, so losing Manning would hurt his value. He's on a great offense if everything is going well, does provide solid value in the passing game, and he scores as a very good short yardage back. However, he has a very annoying propensity to get knicked up and come out of games, so I really question if you can rely on him for 16 games, and most importantly, down the stretch.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook took his game to a higher level last year, and odds are if you had him on your team, you probably made the playoffs. His incredible ability in the passing game makes it very hard for him to post a bad week, and he posted his best rushing season. There's concern about the fact he's missed games with his knee over the past couple years, but he tends to always play through it despite not practicing too often. With Curtis out for about half the year and Reggie Brown not taking a step forward, it seems as though the Eagles will have to rely on him as their offensive centerpiece once again. McNabb's health should present a more consistent Eagles offense this year, so perhaps Westbrook can turn in his career high in TDs. The knee is a bit of a concern, but injury is a slight concern for all top runners. I think Westbrook is the wisest choice of the top three given that he has a consistent and arguably improved offense around him with McNabb healthy, he is a stud from week 1 to week 16 despite a missed game here and there, and he's in his prime.
It's hard not to take the talent of Steven Jackson, but I think Westbrook represents the best option of the three RBs off the board after LT/AP. Both have injury concerns, but there are some real scary facts working against Jackson's ability to stay healthy this year right now.
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately he is stuck on a very mediocre, possibly bad offensive situation. His offensive line is already banged up a bit, losing their two top backups (Brandon Gorin and Mark Setterstrom), and Pace suffered a scare while injuring the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. Their starting line is intact, for now, but they have no depth. Torry Holt is still a great WR, but he isn't the deep threat he once was after several years of knee problems. Isaac Bruce is gone, and he is replaced by Drew Bennett, who was miserable as their slot WR last year. Bennett has reportedly had a good camp, but the Rams NEED him to step up to keep attention away from Holt. There's nothing behind Bennett worth mentioning. Randy McMichael could re-emerge under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who has a history of getting the most out of his TEs (KC - Gonzalez, WAS - Cooley). Saunders runs a great scheme, similar to Martz, so the transition won't be so bad. I've already detailed the injury concerns of his 2006 370 f/carry season and what it means for him moving forward, and now we have to add in the holdout. Dick Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, noted a study that he did showing that players who hold out have shown a higher likelihood of getting injured. That's 2 strikes against Jackson. All in all, that's some scary territory coupled with an uncertain offensive situation.
Joseph Addai - Joseph Addai exploded onto the scene last year, but as I noted in his wrap-up, he posted an alarming slide in the 2nd half. Addai simply has never been a workhorse back at either the collegiate level at LSU, or the pro level until last season. Addai also isn't a special RB...he's simply a well-rounded RB who does everything good, but not great. With the uncertain health regarding Manning, Addai could NOT carry this team by himself. He's just not that type of RB. Addai is more reliant on his situation than any of the top 3 RBs, so losing Manning would hurt his value. He's on a great offense if everything is going well, does provide solid value in the passing game, and he scores as a very good short yardage back. However, he has a very annoying propensity to get knicked up and come out of games, so I really question if you can rely on him for 16 games, and most importantly, down the stretch.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook took his game to a higher level last year, and odds are if you had him on your team, you probably made the playoffs. His incredible ability in the passing game makes it very hard for him to post a bad week, and he posted his best rushing season. There's concern about the fact he's missed games with his knee over the past couple years, but he tends to always play through it despite not practicing too often. With Curtis out for about half the year and Reggie Brown not taking a step forward, it seems as though the Eagles will have to rely on him as their offensive centerpiece once again. McNabb's health should present a more consistent Eagles offense this year, so perhaps Westbrook can turn in his career high in TDs. The knee is a bit of a concern, but injury is a slight concern for all top runners. I think Westbrook is the wisest choice of the top three given that he has a consistent and arguably improved offense around him with McNabb healthy, he is a stud from week 1 to week 16 despite a missed game here and there, and he's in his prime.
It's hard not to take the talent of Steven Jackson, but I think Westbrook represents the best option of the three RBs off the board after LT/AP. Both have injury concerns, but there are some real scary facts working against Jackson's ability to stay healthy this year right now.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Rams RB Steven Jackson Ends Holdout
St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson has ended his holdout.
Jackson will report to the Rams this evening, and he'll likely begin practicing tomorrow. No news of a contract extension accompanied this holdout termination, so it looks like the Rams were smart to stand their ground.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson will be a highly motivated RB this season if he didn't sign a new contract. He'll be running for a big paycheck. His talent is undeniable, but I honestly don't see much of a difference between Jackson and Frank Gore. Both RBs are among the most talented RBs in the entire NFL, offering a powerful running style with the ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. Both have questionable offensive lines and questionable supporting passing attacks, which begs the question of exactly how many times they will score this season. Jackson holds a slight edge as his surrounding situation is a bit better and isn't transitioning to a new offensive scheme, so he has the advantage of offensive continuity. As I mentioned in my ADP analysis, history is not on his side considering the high workload he endured in 2006.
Essentially Jackson's fantasy value boils down to if you believe he'll stay healthy. I have the #3 pick in a fantasy draft this weekend, and I'm at least considering Jackson, although I'm favoring Addai right now. I've ruled out Westbrook because I don't believe the Eagles will give him the ball as much this year with McNabb healthy, and he has his own injury concerns. Jackson will have enough time to get ready for week 1 with 2.5 weeks of practice time until their first game. There's much debate about these 3 currently. Addai is the safest bet, while Jackson offers the most upside as the centerpiece of his offense.
Update: The Rams and Jackson have reported agreed to a new contract. While it would have been a nice bonus to have Jackson running for new money, I wouldn't let this update affect your thinking of him.
Jackson will report to the Rams this evening, and he'll likely begin practicing tomorrow. No news of a contract extension accompanied this holdout termination, so it looks like the Rams were smart to stand their ground.
Fantasy Impact: Steven Jackson will be a highly motivated RB this season if he didn't sign a new contract. He'll be running for a big paycheck. His talent is undeniable, but I honestly don't see much of a difference between Jackson and Frank Gore. Both RBs are among the most talented RBs in the entire NFL, offering a powerful running style with the ability to make a huge impact in the passing game. Both have questionable offensive lines and questionable supporting passing attacks, which begs the question of exactly how many times they will score this season. Jackson holds a slight edge as his surrounding situation is a bit better and isn't transitioning to a new offensive scheme, so he has the advantage of offensive continuity. As I mentioned in my ADP analysis, history is not on his side considering the high workload he endured in 2006.
Essentially Jackson's fantasy value boils down to if you believe he'll stay healthy. I have the #3 pick in a fantasy draft this weekend, and I'm at least considering Jackson, although I'm favoring Addai right now. I've ruled out Westbrook because I don't believe the Eagles will give him the ball as much this year with McNabb healthy, and he has his own injury concerns. Jackson will have enough time to get ready for week 1 with 2.5 weeks of practice time until their first game. There's much debate about these 3 currently. Addai is the safest bet, while Jackson offers the most upside as the centerpiece of his offense.
Update: The Rams and Jackson have reported agreed to a new contract. While it would have been a nice bonus to have Jackson running for new money, I wouldn't let this update affect your thinking of him.
Eagles WR Kevin Curtis Undergoes Hernia Surgery
Philadelphia Eagles' WR Kevin Curtis will undergo hernia surgery.
His timetable is unknown, but he certainly won't be ready for the start of the regular season. It remains to be seen how many weeks he'll actually miss.
Fantasy Impact: Kevin Curtis can obviously no longer be relied upon as a WR3. The uncertainty of his recovery time makes his value very tricky to predict, but I'm of the mindset to take him as a WR5 and nothing more. Once he returns, he should be a candidate to post WR3 numbers in what should be a solid Eagles offense, but these injuries are tough to figure out.
Reggie Brown is dealing with his own hamstring injury, and if he can get himself ready for the start of the season, he'll have a chance to dominate the passing game targets as the unquestioned #1 receiver on the team. He did not look good prior to his injury, but he's now an interesting boom/bust WR4 to be considered once you have your starting WRs already drafted. Rookie DeSean Jackson stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's a speed threat much like Curtis, so he's worth considered as a WR5 with interesting upside. He has impressed so far in camp and in preseason games. Donovan McNabb should be downgraded slightly, but he's no stranger to performing with mediocre WRs, as that's all he did prior to Owens joining the team.
His timetable is unknown, but he certainly won't be ready for the start of the regular season. It remains to be seen how many weeks he'll actually miss.
Fantasy Impact: Kevin Curtis can obviously no longer be relied upon as a WR3. The uncertainty of his recovery time makes his value very tricky to predict, but I'm of the mindset to take him as a WR5 and nothing more. Once he returns, he should be a candidate to post WR3 numbers in what should be a solid Eagles offense, but these injuries are tough to figure out.
Reggie Brown is dealing with his own hamstring injury, and if he can get himself ready for the start of the season, he'll have a chance to dominate the passing game targets as the unquestioned #1 receiver on the team. He did not look good prior to his injury, but he's now an interesting boom/bust WR4 to be considered once you have your starting WRs already drafted. Rookie DeSean Jackson stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's a speed threat much like Curtis, so he's worth considered as a WR5 with interesting upside. He has impressed so far in camp and in preseason games. Donovan McNabb should be downgraded slightly, but he's no stranger to performing with mediocre WRs, as that's all he did prior to Owens joining the team.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Preseason Week 2 Player Notes
QB:
Alex Smith - J.T. O'Sullivan started in preseason week 2 again, further showing that he has a legit chance at being SF's opening week QB. Alex Smith isn't dead in the water yet, but he really needs to start turning heads in practice to take this job by week 1. If you're drafting now, you can safely ignore him in your draft, as I doubt many people would take a chance on him. He's someone you don't want to forget, however.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a knee sprain, but it doesn't appear to be serious at the moment. If you're thinking about taking him as a QB2 if you have someone like Brady and want an interesting backup, then I wouldn't change my stance on him yet.
Jon Kitna - Kitna has been almost perfect in his first 2 preseason games. Much was made about the fact that Martz has left and Kitna won't be throwing as much, but like I mentioned in the writeups for Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the passing game is going to focus more on the talented WR duo. They're also switching to a zone blocking scheme for the running game, and that will take a while to become successful. This should allow for Kitna to post very solid numbers and is a recommended QB2. He's going to make his fair share of mistakes as he always has, but he should be a reliable backup QB.
Marc Bulger - Bulger is getting pummeled, just like last year. He left with a strained shoulder, and given he's had shoulder problems before, it's a concern. He'll likely be drafted as some team's starter, so make sure that you're not that team.
RB:
Steven Jackson - He's still holding out. Given the lackluster offense around him, the history of RBs with the 1 season of high workloads, and now the holdout threatening his availability and conditioning for week 1, there are much safer RB1 options in your draft.
Kevin Smith - The Lions officially named him the team's starter at RB, although most of us knew this when he was drafted. It's a fact now. He's not a bad late RB2, and he's a very good RB3.
Ahman Green - He's already hurt. Don't draft him. Slaton and Darius Walker are both worth speculating on late in drafts in terms of a Houston RB with a chance to carve out some fantasy value. I think Walker is more of a featured RB type than Slaton, who's more of a change-of-pace RB.
Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson - Rudi was scratched with more problems in his hamstring. Do not draft him. Chris Perry was given the start and wasn't overly impressive, but it's obvious the Bengals will try to get what they can from Perry. Perry is plenty talented, but he's had injury problems dating all the way back to college. I still think Kenny Watson is the guy to draft here and wait for.
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart - I'm very conflicted on this situation right now. Williams was solid, but not overly impressive in week 2. Stewart finally saw the field, and only gained 4 yards on 3 carries, but this was his first game action in a while and you shouldn't have expected too much. Williams is a talented RB, but you really have to wonder why the coaching staff went with DeShaun Foster the past 2 years. They had to see something in Williams they didn't like. I think it's pretty clear that Williams will be the starter in week 1, but it'll be an interesting battle from there. I still think Stewart is the greater talent, and if you can nab him as a RB3, he's a very interesting upside pick.
Selvin Young/Andre Hall - Hall stole goal line duties from Young in preseason week 2 on both drives. Selvin Young's fantasy value took a hit with this development, and I'm thinking that Andre Hall is another late round RB worth speculating with, especially if he's going to be scoring the TDs.
Ray Rice - Rice had another outstanding preseason performance this weekend. Rice is highly recommended as a RB4 as he would be RB2 material should anything happen to Willis McGahee, and he might even start week 1 if McGahee isn't recovered by then. I think the coaching staff will probably feel there's no rush to get McGahee back.
Ricky Williams - He's back, baby! He had another great preseason game in week 2 as is also recommended as a RB3. With Ronnie Brown not looking so good, Ricky could have a big role early in the season. It would be smart for the Phins to ride Ricky this year and allow Brown to recover, but who knows what their plans are.
Michael Turner - Turner exploded for 114 yards on 4 carries. I wouldn't get too excited about this as his surrounding offense is pretty lackluster, and he's not going to be too involved in the passing game. However, he remains a solid RB2 as he'll probably approach 300 carries and maybe 8 TDs or so.
Chris Johnson - Johnson had another great game in week 2, but beware of the hype machine on this kid. He's incredibly explosive, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with LenDale White primary with Johnson worked in as well. I still compare this to the Deuce/Bush split we saw in 2006 from the Saints.
WR:
Calvin Johnson - CJ has been downright nasty so far, and it's clear the back injury that really slowed him down last year is no longer a problem. CJ has a chance to skyrocket into the top 10 this year, and he's highly recommended as a WR2 in the 4th/5th rounds. He's going to be featured quite a bit this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall posted 59 yards and a TD in week 2, showing he's just fine and ready for the season. He'll miss the first 2 weeks, but do NOT let him slip too far. He'll be WR1 material, like Steve Smith, when he returns from suspension.
Matt Jones - Remember him? He'll have a chance to play a big role in Jacksonville with the plethora of WR injuries they've suffered. He still remains plenty talented and is an interesting WR5 flier pick to see what happens.
Antonio Bryant - I still like him as a sleeper, but it's been pointed out that he's running behind Joey Galloway so far. Unless he moves across the field from him, he'll be stuck on the bench until Galloway gets hurt. Continue to monitor his position. If he moves across and gets a chance to start opposite Galloway, which makes the most sense given his competition would be Ike Hilliard, he'll be a major sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Ginn put up a solid week 2 performance, and he's another intersting WR5 option. He'll start and be the go-to guy in the passing game, giving him some upside. His deep speed doesn't match Pennington's weak arm, but if he learns how to run his intermediate routes well, he'll become a fantasy factor.
Reggie Brown - I originally liked him as a bounce-back candidate this year, but he's continued to struggle in the preseason, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I wouldn't take him as anything more than a WR4, and even that might be overdrafting him.
Alex Smith - J.T. O'Sullivan started in preseason week 2 again, further showing that he has a legit chance at being SF's opening week QB. Alex Smith isn't dead in the water yet, but he really needs to start turning heads in practice to take this job by week 1. If you're drafting now, you can safely ignore him in your draft, as I doubt many people would take a chance on him. He's someone you don't want to forget, however.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a knee sprain, but it doesn't appear to be serious at the moment. If you're thinking about taking him as a QB2 if you have someone like Brady and want an interesting backup, then I wouldn't change my stance on him yet.
Jon Kitna - Kitna has been almost perfect in his first 2 preseason games. Much was made about the fact that Martz has left and Kitna won't be throwing as much, but like I mentioned in the writeups for Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the passing game is going to focus more on the talented WR duo. They're also switching to a zone blocking scheme for the running game, and that will take a while to become successful. This should allow for Kitna to post very solid numbers and is a recommended QB2. He's going to make his fair share of mistakes as he always has, but he should be a reliable backup QB.
Marc Bulger - Bulger is getting pummeled, just like last year. He left with a strained shoulder, and given he's had shoulder problems before, it's a concern. He'll likely be drafted as some team's starter, so make sure that you're not that team.
RB:
Steven Jackson - He's still holding out. Given the lackluster offense around him, the history of RBs with the 1 season of high workloads, and now the holdout threatening his availability and conditioning for week 1, there are much safer RB1 options in your draft.
Kevin Smith - The Lions officially named him the team's starter at RB, although most of us knew this when he was drafted. It's a fact now. He's not a bad late RB2, and he's a very good RB3.
Ahman Green - He's already hurt. Don't draft him. Slaton and Darius Walker are both worth speculating on late in drafts in terms of a Houston RB with a chance to carve out some fantasy value. I think Walker is more of a featured RB type than Slaton, who's more of a change-of-pace RB.
Rudi Johnson/Chris Perry/Kenny Watson - Rudi was scratched with more problems in his hamstring. Do not draft him. Chris Perry was given the start and wasn't overly impressive, but it's obvious the Bengals will try to get what they can from Perry. Perry is plenty talented, but he's had injury problems dating all the way back to college. I still think Kenny Watson is the guy to draft here and wait for.
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart - I'm very conflicted on this situation right now. Williams was solid, but not overly impressive in week 2. Stewart finally saw the field, and only gained 4 yards on 3 carries, but this was his first game action in a while and you shouldn't have expected too much. Williams is a talented RB, but you really have to wonder why the coaching staff went with DeShaun Foster the past 2 years. They had to see something in Williams they didn't like. I think it's pretty clear that Williams will be the starter in week 1, but it'll be an interesting battle from there. I still think Stewart is the greater talent, and if you can nab him as a RB3, he's a very interesting upside pick.
Selvin Young/Andre Hall - Hall stole goal line duties from Young in preseason week 2 on both drives. Selvin Young's fantasy value took a hit with this development, and I'm thinking that Andre Hall is another late round RB worth speculating with, especially if he's going to be scoring the TDs.
Ray Rice - Rice had another outstanding preseason performance this weekend. Rice is highly recommended as a RB4 as he would be RB2 material should anything happen to Willis McGahee, and he might even start week 1 if McGahee isn't recovered by then. I think the coaching staff will probably feel there's no rush to get McGahee back.
Ricky Williams - He's back, baby! He had another great preseason game in week 2 as is also recommended as a RB3. With Ronnie Brown not looking so good, Ricky could have a big role early in the season. It would be smart for the Phins to ride Ricky this year and allow Brown to recover, but who knows what their plans are.
Michael Turner - Turner exploded for 114 yards on 4 carries. I wouldn't get too excited about this as his surrounding offense is pretty lackluster, and he's not going to be too involved in the passing game. However, he remains a solid RB2 as he'll probably approach 300 carries and maybe 8 TDs or so.
Chris Johnson - Johnson had another great game in week 2, but beware of the hype machine on this kid. He's incredibly explosive, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with LenDale White primary with Johnson worked in as well. I still compare this to the Deuce/Bush split we saw in 2006 from the Saints.
WR:
Calvin Johnson - CJ has been downright nasty so far, and it's clear the back injury that really slowed him down last year is no longer a problem. CJ has a chance to skyrocket into the top 10 this year, and he's highly recommended as a WR2 in the 4th/5th rounds. He's going to be featured quite a bit this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall posted 59 yards and a TD in week 2, showing he's just fine and ready for the season. He'll miss the first 2 weeks, but do NOT let him slip too far. He'll be WR1 material, like Steve Smith, when he returns from suspension.
Matt Jones - Remember him? He'll have a chance to play a big role in Jacksonville with the plethora of WR injuries they've suffered. He still remains plenty talented and is an interesting WR5 flier pick to see what happens.
Antonio Bryant - I still like him as a sleeper, but it's been pointed out that he's running behind Joey Galloway so far. Unless he moves across the field from him, he'll be stuck on the bench until Galloway gets hurt. Continue to monitor his position. If he moves across and gets a chance to start opposite Galloway, which makes the most sense given his competition would be Ike Hilliard, he'll be a major sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Ginn put up a solid week 2 performance, and he's another intersting WR5 option. He'll start and be the go-to guy in the passing game, giving him some upside. His deep speed doesn't match Pennington's weak arm, but if he learns how to run his intermediate routes well, he'll become a fantasy factor.
Reggie Brown - I originally liked him as a bounce-back candidate this year, but he's continued to struggle in the preseason, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I wouldn't take him as anything more than a WR4, and even that might be overdrafting him.
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