Friday, July 20, 2007

Thursday: Dice-K? More Like Dice-BB.

Kelvim Escobar - 7 2/3 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, W (11). He allowed more baserunners than usual, but he did a good job pitching his way out of jams in another fine performance. He lowered his ERA to a sparkling 2.85, and with the Angels playing as well as any team in baseball this year, don't be surprised to see him in the Cy Young race as long as he stays healthy.

Carl Crawford - 3/4, 2 SB (30). He hadn't been caught stealing since May 28th until getting caught in his 3rd attempt last night, so he's been doing exactly what owners expected of him so far this year. His 6 HR, however, have been a bit disappointing after the power surge he displayed in the first half of last year. Unfortunately that seems to be a fluke rather than a precursor of more power.

Chien Ming-Wang - 7 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. He was crusing until the the top of the 7th, where he allowed all 3 runs and 4 hits, costing him a chance for the win. That's 4 straight quality starts for Wang, who continues to exceed expectations this year.

Jeremy Accardo - 1 IP, 1 H, SV (14). He's been giving up runs, including 4 times in his last 10 outings, but with a 2.72 ERA, he's been pitching very well on the season and remains very secure in his role as the closer for this season. His 1.26 WHIP indicates some more ERA regression might be on the horizon, though.

Jeremy Bonderman - 6 2/3 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Bonderman had a rough June, posting a 4.99 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, but he's right back at it in July with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP so far this month. He's had troubles the past two years closing his seasons, posting much worse stats after the AS break. However, as many sites predicted in the spring, this should be the season he bucks that trend and closes strong. I agree.

Scott Baker - 6 1/3 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. That's 5 solid outings in 6 apperances outside of the meltdown against the White Sox on July 6th, including two against the Tigers. He's quietly establishing some mixed league value, so if you have a hole in your rotation (Sheets going down perhaps?), Baker is looking like a pretty solid option.

Yovani Gallardo - 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (2). Pff, who needs Ben Sheets? Gallardo will have some rough starts, but he has incredible poise and great location on his pitches. He's not Ben Sheets, but he has a chance to be relatively close. He should be a solid mixed league starter the rest of the season, but beware of him wearing down towards the end as many rookies do.

Matt Morris - 4 2/3 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. This is my lost post about Morris as he is done as a mixed league option, just as I've been saying all along. Hopefully you listened. :)

Ted Lilly - 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, W (10). Not the best outing from Lilly, but it was good enough to pick up the win thanks to another Cubs offensive explosion. He had 3 straight 1 ER performances, so he was due to give up a few runs. He's won his last 5 starts, and 6 of 7 as he's finally evening out from the lack of wins earlier in the year despite pitching well.

Barry Bonds - 3/3, 3 R, 6 RBI, 2 HR (19). Guess those 3 days off did him some good as he murdered the ball today. Unfortunately if you own him, especially as the season progresses, you really have to pay attention to the daily lineups to make sure he's active on the days you want to use him. Yahoo added a nice feature earlier in the season, adding a ^ by each position player once they have the lineups for the game. It's a nice one-stop shopping ground for who's playing and who's not, and it's very helpful for your platoon players.

Bengie Molina - 1/4, 2 run HR (9). He's really cooled off, dropping his AVG down to .275 from over .300 earlier in the season, but he should provide enough pop and RBI production to be a borderline starting catcher in mixed leagues.

Garrett Atkins - 1/4, 2 run HR (14). Unfortuantely Atkins has cooled down after his monster June, but with 3 HR and 11 RBI in 14 games, he's still providing solid power numbers for his owners.

Javier Vazquez - 6 1/3 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W (7). Another great outing from Vazquez, especially against a quality offense like Boston. He had a rough May, but he's really pitched well the other 3 months of this season, posting his best month so far in July with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He's been a very nice find for his owners this year as he's definitely exceeded expectations.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 6 K. This is getting frustrating. After 6 straight outstanding outings that indicated he had turned the corner, he's come back with 3 straight subpar outings to bring his ratios back up to a 3.99 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Like I said before, he never had a history of control problem in Japan, so I'm not sure what his issue has been this year. The 46 BB in 130 2/3 IP isn't horrible, but it's definitely up from what was expected. Odds are he'll turn things around again, but it appears he's not going to live up to expectations after all.

Sergio Mitre - 6 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. A tough matchup against Cincy, but he pitched pretty well and was in line for the win until Benitez imploded in the 8th inning. Keep in mind that his 1.25 WHIP does not correlate to his 2.82 ERA, so he's going to have a bad outing sometime soon in all likelihood.

Mike Maroth - 5 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 3 BB, 0 K. So yeah, that whole AL-NL league change isn't working out so well for him. My bad for suggesting that it might. With a 8.17 ERA, you'd think he made the league switch the other way.

Tim Hudson - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (10). Hudson keeps rolling right along. With a 3.24 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, he has a legit shot at comeback player of the year.

Andruw Jones - 2/3, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (19). Jones is hitting .328 this month with 7 HR and 19 RBI in 15 games. To say he's found his swing again would be an understatement. Those who stuck with him or bought low will be rewarded with a great 2nd half. With a mixture of solid option ahead of him, a healthy Chipper, and Francouer protecting him, he's in yet another solid lineup with plenty of opportunities for run production.

C.C. Sabathia - 6 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. Sabathia is really scuffling this month, posting an ugly 8.47 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in 17 IP. As long as he's not hurting, he'll right this ship soon enough and get back on track again.

Joe Borowski - 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, SV (27). Those 27 saves are coming at a heavy cost in the ratio department as Borowski sports a 5.26 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The price some of us pay for those saves! He's in no danger of losing his job and he has an excellent save total, but I hope you have a solid set of pitchers around him to absorb those ratios.

Cole Hamels - 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Good enough to win 90% of the time, but not when you're facing Chris Young. He gave his owners exactly what they expected from him in SD, without the win.

Chris Young - 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, W (9). Unfortunately he's not efficient with his pitches, or else he might pitch a complete game one of these days. It was a great outing against the strong Phillies lineup, even if it was in Petco. As is, his 1.85 ERA is absolutely ridiculous and he's pitching as well as anyone in baseball right now. As I keep saying, he's due for a regression real soon, and remains a great sell high candidate.

Tom Glavine - 2 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. Yuck. As an owner of him, you have to put up with these sorts of outings to go along with all the solid ones you'll get. It's the 4th time in the past 2 months he's given up 6 ER or more after not doing it the first 2 months. He'll be fine, but this is Glavine, like him or not. I'll side with the nots, but on the Mets he does have some fantasy value.

Derek Lowe - 3 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 0 K. Um, yuck? Afer this outing, his 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are exactly in line with what he's accomplished in LA the past 2 seasons. Expect him to remain a solid back-of-the-rotation fantasy option the rest of the year. At least this beating came against a great Mets offense.

Carlos Delgado - 1/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (16). He's been a disappointment this year in an overall season, but he's hitting .367 with 4 HR and 10 RBI in 16 games this month. He's alternating good and bad months, so unfortuantely with the high AVG so far this month, he's probably due to slump again sometime soon.

Matt Kemp - 2/5, 3 R, 2 RBI, HR (5). This kid has a lot of offensive potential, and he's hitting .383 in limited time this month. His power/speed ability makes him an interesting target in keeper leagues, depending on how many keepers your league has. I'm not sure what type of mixed league value he'll provide the rest of this year, but he's worth keeping an eye on if he starts getting consistent playing time. If they weren't battling for a division title, Kemp and Ethier would be starting over Luis Gonzalez. As is, they're battling for time.

Wednesday: Don-Terrible Willis

Mark Buehrle - 6 1/3 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (7). He allowed baserunners, but did a good job dodging trouble and ended up with a great start. A very good performance against the tough Cleveland offense as he continues his excellent rebound season.

Jeff Francis - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. A nice rebound for his owners after 3/4 previous appearances yielded 6 ER. Given this was a start against the Pirates, I'd still show a bit of concern, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.

Ian Snell - 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Very rarely does 6 baserunners in 6 IP yield 5 ER, but 4 of those runs came home on a pair of 2 run HRs. Things are starting to even out a bit for Snell. His current 1.20 WHIP does not support a 3.31 ERA, so I would imagine his ERA might go up a bit more unless he starts limiting baserunners more going forward. He hasn't reached 200 IP yet, throwing 186 IP last year in his first full season. He'll probably wear down some as the year moves along, so he's someone to consider trading if you're right in the thick of things and don't plan on keeping him.

Todd Helton - 1/3, 2 run HR (9). I don't believe I've touched on him yet this season. If it wasn't obvious the past few years, he's done as a fantasy starter at 1B. He's not a bad UTIL guy, but you could probably do better there, too. The .310 AVG and 53 RBI are nice, but the 9 HR from a 1B is not. He's an endgame 1B in drafts these days, and what's left on his monster contract is bad news for the Rockies.

Jason Bergmann - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (2). I mentioned he was worth watching when he returned from the DL, but I just wanted to update that he's not longer even worth considering. This was one of his better starts since returning.

Aaron Harang - 7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. He dodged baserunners well, but the bullpen blew the save for him in a 1 run game. He pitched very well outside of the WHIP catagory.

John Smoltz - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K. Bigtime performance from Smoltz, but Harang's outing held down the Atlanta offense and he didn't pick up a win. It was a very encouraging post-DL start for Smoltz who's shoulder seems to have recovered nicely.

Matt Cain - 4 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 3 K. Ugh. More of the same from Cain. He had an outstanding April, a bad May, a decent June, and he's having a terrible July. The walks continue to be a big problem for him as he's given up 59 of them in 118 2/3 IP. Until he gets those under control, he'll continue to struggle.

Carlos Zambrano - 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (12). Big Z keeps dominating opponents. His stretch since the fight with Barrett is getting more impressive with each start. Some people might have been worried about 5 IP and 80 pitches, but the Cubs were very smart here. It was a very long bottom of the 5th with them opening up a 9-0 lead, and combining the lag between innings and the huge lead, they decided to give Zambrano a short day. His owners have to love this as he's thrown a lot of pitches this year, so it's nice to see the Cubs playing it safe on this one and giving him some well deserved rest.

Chad Billingsley - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. Back come the walks, although you shouldn't have been starting him against the explosive Phillies offense anyways. Still, it was a step back for Billingsley coming off a great outing against SF, although he did go from one of the worst offenses to one of the best. If anything, we've learned that you need to be careful when you use him.

Ryan Howard - 2/3, 3 R, 1 RBI, HR (25). He's really killing the ball right now, giving his fantasy owners about what they paid for. There was a ton of hype for him this year and he was often being drafted in the first round, but after his slow start that should keep his numbers down, he'll probably come at a more reasonable draft position next year. It'd be nice to see the Philles find some more protection for him in the lineup.

Kevin Millwood - 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. One bad inning, including his own error, led to a loss for Millwood. He faced the minimum in the other 5 innings he pitched and is still pitching like a mixed league starter right now. Make sure he's owned, and to use him against all but elite offenses until he proves otherwise.

Kip Wells - 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. You know, if he had stayed healthy in his career, he might be pitching like this more consistently. As is, he mixes in an outing like this among 4-5 disasters. Don't bother, as if his 5.75 ERA wasn't enough reason.

Dontrelle Willis - 3 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. I think it's time he moves on to a different team. He's completely fallen apart this year and should be nowhere near your active lineup until he puts together 2-3 good starts in a row. Nobody would fault you for dropping him, either.

Manny Ramirez - 2/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (14). He continues to assault the ball post-AS break. As I've mentioned before, let's hope he keeps this up for a long while.

Roger Clemens - 6 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Pretty good outing fantasy-wise against Toronto as the Blue Jays were completely incapable of pushing runners home despite numerous opportunities all game long. He got pretty lucky here.

Alex Rios - 4/5, 1 R. An amazing season so far for Rios as he pushed his AVG up to .303 with this effort. He's settled into the 2nd tier of fantasy outfielders with this season.

Scott Kazmir - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Finally, a sign of progress. I read that he said before this start that he was going to forget all the different mechanical coachings given to him this year, and just go out and throw the ball like he knows how. We'll see if he can build on this.

Jose Valverde - 1 IP, 3 K, SV (28). We can safely say that Valverde is finally capitalizing on his talent this season. He's put it all together and become a great closer after a couple years of disappoitnment.

Andrew Miller - 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, W (5). Control problems led to a short day for Miller, but he pitched around the walks and put in a fairly good outing, picking up the win and beating the usually invincible Santana.

Johan Santana - 8 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. So he doesn't win all his summer starts? Well forget that, drop this piece of crap. ;)

Michael Cuddyer - 4/4. Nothing like a 4 hit day leading to absolutely nothing else. Annoying.

Magglio Ordonez - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (15). He's hitting a pedestrian .298 with 2 HR and 11 RBI. He was due to slow down some, so hopefully for his owners' sake, he's just having a "down" month. I still think he'll be hitting more like this the rest of the way.

John Maine - 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Back to back 4 ER outings for Maine, but I wouldn't worry too much. He was due to take his ERA above 3.00, and now that's happened. He'll still be a very good fantasy pitcher the rest of the way as long as he doesn't run into more command issues.

Greg Maddux - 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. After 3 straight subpar starts, I'm sure owners were happy to see him turn in an effort like this. Unfortunately the usually great SD bullpen let him down and he wasn't able to pick up the win.

Adrian Gonzalez - 2/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (15). Boy has he fell off the map. I apologize for not noticing this before, but he's been a bum over the past two months, hitting .231 with 2 HR last month, and .196 with 1 HR this month. Hopefully he starts to heat up again because he certainly has the talent to do so. He's had 7 hits in the past 4 games, so hopefully that time to heat up is now.

David Wright - 1/4, 3 run HR (17). He's really recovered well after a poor April. Unfortunately due to his name recognition and hype, it was really hard to buy low on him, but congrats to those who were able to pull it off. He's at .328 this month with 3 HR and 3 SB. The 3 run HR last night was huge, tying the game in the 8th inning.

J.J. Putz - 1 IP, SV (28). His ERA dropped to 0.79. He hasn't allowed an ER since June 2nd.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Ervin Santana Optioned To AAA

The Los Angeles Angels have optioned SP Ervin Santana to AAA.

Fantasy Impact: Drop him in all redraft leagues if you were using him for his home starts. The talent is still there, but he needs to get himself straightened out at the minor league level. I would imagine he'll return to the majors later this year, assuming he puts himself back together in the minors.

Erik Bedard Scratched From Today's Start

The Baltimore Orioles have scratched SP Erik Bedard from his start today with neck stiffness.

Fantasy Impact: He might have slept on it wrong, and it shouldn't be a major concern. He's currently scheduled to face the A's on Friday as long as he doesn't experience any further complications.

Ben Sheets To The DL

The Milwaukee Brewers placed SP Ben Sheets on the DL with a partial tendon tear in his right index finger.

I apologize for the delay, I worked late last night and didn't have time to update this story.

Fantasy Impact: The plan is for Sheets to rest for 2 weeks, and then begin trying to throw with a splint. I would write him off for fantasy purposes for the rest of the year, to be safe. Don't drop him as it's well worth placing him on the DL to see what comes of this injury. Construct your rotation like you wouldn't have him available, and treat anything he gives you over the rest of the year as an added bonus. His current timeframe is 4-6 weeks, but it would take a large stroke of luck to have the same Ben Sheets back in your rotation when that time is up.

Tuesday: Starting Pitcher Bouncebacks

Roy Oswalt - 1/3 IP. Pretty random relief appearance, but rather than throwing on the side, they decided to use Oswalt to get an out of relief. If you had him active, enjoy the massive ERA/WHIP boost you got. Woohoo!

Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K. Baby steps. Lidge successfully converted save #1 since coming back from the DL. He's no lock to experience great success now that he's back closing, but the bigger risk for his owners is that the Astros will obviously be sellers at the deadline, so they might be showcasing Lidge for a trade. I'm not sure what to expect here, but a healthy and effective Lidge would allow them to receive a decent return for him. I'm rather pessimistic that he'll have the closer role over the entire rest of the season due to the possibility of a trade.

Carlos Lee - 2/4, 2 run HR. Lee has homered in 2 straight games, and he has been known to go on scorching hot streaks before. His numbers are very good as they are now, but who wouldn't like a big push from Lee right about now?

Jon Garland - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K. Garland was pretty lucky to only allow 3 runs despite 10 baserunners against the powerful Cleveland offense, but if you started him last night, you had to be pleased at the decent results. Unfortunately, the bullpen blew it yet again and he was left without a win.

Bobby Jenks - 1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, BS (5). Jenks is now part of the White Sox bullpen problem. Jenks has allowed 7 ER in his last 6 2/3 IP, blowing 3 saves in that time period. This is turning into a carbon-copy of last year when Jenks had a great first half, made the All Star game, and then fell apart in the 2nd half. As an owner you can't do much other than hope he turns it around...his job isn't in any jeopardy right now. Not that the Sox have anything resembling an alternative, anyways. This just makes me sick to my stomach as a fan...I can't take this anymore this year. If it's not one person, it's another. So many good starts from the rotation are being thrown away this year. Ugh.

Jim Thome - 3/6, 2 RBI. He continues his hot July, upping his stats for the month to a .351 AVG, 5 HR, and 17 RBI in 15 games. I cautiously suggest selling high at this point because liek I've mentioned before, his age and injury history suggests another health problem before the end of the season. I hate to say it as a fan, but if this team is going to start over, why not move Thome? He's hitting very well this year, still has a couple productive years left as a DH, and could bring back a decent prospect. This is just me thinking out loud...I have read zero trade rumors involving Thome.

Ryan Garko - 2/2, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (12). Not bad for a pinch hitting apperance in the 9th inning. That's 5 straight 2 hit games for Garko who's really heating up again. The only problem is that he's not technically an every day player, but he plays most days unless Shoppach is catching, at whichpoint Martinez moves to 1B and Garko hits the bench. Still, he plays enough to warrant utilizing him in your UTIL roll when he's active. With a .313 AVG, 12 HR, 38 RBI, and 41 R, he's been very productive.

Alex Gordon - 3/4, 3 R, SB (10). He had been worthless so far this month just like in April and May, but this moves his July AVG back to .233. Let's hope he builds on this game and starts to get hot again.

Julio Lugo - 3/4, 1 R. Lugo is on fire this month, hitting .395 with 4 SB. Given the AVG/R/SB contributions he'll make to your fantasy team, and the fact he's eligible at 2B/SS/3B in Yahoo, pick him up if he's out there and you need MI or SB help. He's coming out of his slump and will likely make a very positive contribution to your team the rest of the way. He had 2 straight .300-ish seasons in Tampa Bay before the trade to LA last year, so he's capable for hitting for a solid AVG.

Jason Bay - 0/3. Seriously, when will this end? Get him back out of your lineup. He had a big game before the AS break, but has hit 2/16 since then to drop his AVG to a season-low .247. He's not producing anything right now and can't be used until he figures out how to hit again. I'm gonna hit myself twice if he keeps this up...once for drafting him, and again for recommending him as a buy low. As frustrated as I am with him, he's due to turn this around soon.

Roy Halladay - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. There's the Halladay we know and love. It's his best start among his last 4 appearances, and hopefully the turning point of his season. He didn't do this against a weak offense either, it was against the Yankees.

Andy Pettitte - 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. Halladay must have inspired him, I guess. Pettitte also turned in his best outing over his past 4 apperances with this offering, and he looks safe to resume using, if you're into that sort of thing.

Hideki Matsui - 2/4, SB (3). Matsui has been on fire with 2 straight 2 hit games, and he's also hit 5 HR in his last 10 games to go along with 9 RBI and 10 R. He's re-establishing himself as a fantasy force and a solid 2nd OF given his current hot streak. His AVG is up to .283 on the year, much more like what we've come to expect from him.

Hanley Ramirez - 2/3, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (15). Ramirez has been moved back to the leadoff spot. The 3 spot was probably the best for his fantasy value given the extra RBI opportunities he was getting there, but he makes the most sense for the Marlins in the leadoff spot. His .388 OBP ranks 2nd behind Cabrera on the team.

Ervin Santana - 6 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 4 K. He was on the road again last night, so he shouldn't have been in your lineup. This might be the last straw for the Angels regarding Santana and he could be headed back to the minors after this performance. There's no excuse for this.

James Shields - 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, W (8). Much better. The Angels are a pretty tough offense, so this outing wasn't a gimme against a powderpuff lineup. He remains a shaky play against AL offenses like the Yankees and Red Sox, but he should still have enough fantasy value outside of those to be a valuable starter for your staff.

B.J. Upton - 3/4, 2 R, 1 RBI. He's 7/11 since returning from the DL, raising his AVG to .336. His ridiculous .473 BA/BIP is bound to come down, so don't fool yourself into thinking that he's a .300 hitter, at least for this season. He's going to have to continue getting very lucky to offset the 70 K in 60 games in order to keep hitting .300. However, with his HR/SB/R production at the top of the order, he will remain a valuable fantasy 2B. Just don't use him anywhere else because he's far more valuable there than at 3B or OF.

Bronson Arroyo - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K. Wow, his best performance of the year. I followed my own advice and picked him up in a league where my starting pitching is dropping like flies, and I couldn't have been more elated with this performance. It's clear that Arroyo has fixed his problems and will resume having fantasy value. One thing to note is his home/away splits, posting a 5.96 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home while posting a 3.51 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP away. Something to consider when starting him, although those numbers are ballooned a bit given the struggles he had earlier this year. Be selective in his home starts.

Ken Griffey Jr. - 1/4, 1 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB (6). Boy, his legs must still feel fresh this late into the season if he's swiping 2 bases in one game. He's having an outstanding fantasy season for all owners who took a chance on him later in drafts.

Barry Zito - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, W (7). In our 4th installment of starting pitcher bouncebacks, I present Exhibit D: Barry Zito. Zito looked like a $126 million man last night, tossing a gem and getting some late offense to pick up the win. Let's hope this is the start of his real turnaround for the 2nd half of the season. He has the talent, the home ballpark, and the league to re-establish solid fantasy value in the 2nd half.

Derrek Lee - 2/4, solo HR (8). 2 HR in 3 games for Lee now, who's hopefully re-discovered his power stroke. Unfortunately for his owners, he'll be riding the bench the next 5 games as he suddenly dropped his appeal of the suspension stemming from the fight with Chris Young. Those in weekly transaction leagues got screwed, but those in daily transaction leagues can remove him until Tuesday of next week.

Eric Byrnes - 3/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB (22). 5 SB in the last 3 games for Byrnes who's doing his best Jose Reyes impression recently. Fantasy owners have to be loving the insane production for Byrnes this year given where he was drafted. Keep in mind that he's a strong candidate to be overvalued in drafts next year if he keeps this up all season long.

Matt Garza - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. Unfortunately he allowed an unearned run, the only run allowed in the game, and he took the loss as a result. A very impressive showing against the powerful Tigers offense. He must be owned in all mixed leagues right now.

Todd Jones - 1 IP, SV (24). Jones was having some problems for a while, but he's put together 7 straight scoreless outings, racking up 6 saves during that timeframe. Fortunately for him and his owners, he would have been replaced as the closer had Zumaya been healthy, but that wasn't the case. Due to the lack of alternatives, he remained in the role and should close strong, just like he did last year. They just need to keep him out of non-save situations as best they can.

Orlando Hernandez - 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (6). As dominant as ever last night, mowing down the weak Padres lineup. He's been one of the better waiver wire fantasy starters this year, along with fellow teammates John Maine and to a lesser extent, Jorge Sosa. Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson deserves a ton of credit for turning a huge weakness on paper to being the season into a strength. He even stole a base last night...his 2nd in 2 games. It was against Michael Barrett, though, so it probably deserves an asterisk.

Jake Peavy - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Peavy had his start pushed back 2 days due to bicep soreness (I really need to get better at read news -> post news), but he was alright in this one, throwing 104 pitches without any noticeable problem. Let's just hope that it's not a bigger problem than they're letting on, but tonights performance against the Mets certainly wasn't any cause for concern.

Chad Gaudin - 6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 4 K. See that drop button next to Gaudin's name on Yahoo? Use it. Honeymoon is over.

Michael Young - 5/5, 1 R, 3 RBI. The overrated fantasy 2B put up a nice game last night, and although the .290 AVG is nice, his 4 HR and 6 SB aren't doing much for your squad as I've mentioned before. Those 2 20+ HR seasons are nice, but after 14 last year and 4 so far this year, that power doesn't appear to be coming back. Texas must be kicking themselves for signing him to that huge deal over the winter. Nobody but them thought it was a good idea at the time.

Jeremy Guthrie - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, W (5). Not a bad bounceback after the shelling he took last outing, but still not the type of outing owners were becoming accustomed to. I'm still not buying the fact he'll provide much fantasy value in the 2nd half of the season as teams get to know him better.

Felix Hernandez - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. The curse of the Baltimore Orioles. Their offense is OK at best, especially without Tejada, but they constantly beat all of my fantasy pitchers for some reason. This is definitely a step back for Hernandez who is continually having baserunner problems. He dodged them all night until his other nemesis, the HR ball, put 3 runs on the board from the 2nd to last man he saw. I honestly don't know what offenses to trust him against right now other than the incredibly weak ones.

Tom Gordon - 1 IP, 1 H. Solid first inning back for Gordon. He admitted that he's pitching with a slight labrum tear in his pitching shoulder. That sounds bad, but if he's going to pitch through it, I assume it's not something that he's going to make worse by taking the mound. He can't be heading to the mound with his best stuff, so I'm not sure how effective he'll be. Regardless, odds are strong that he'll take the closer's role back from Alfonseca until Brett Myers is ready to return.

Ryan Howard - 2/6, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR (24). He's still striking out all over the place, K'ing 105 times already in 75 games. However, he's still hitting for a ton of power, driving in a ton of runs, and hitting .288 since the start of June. He's resumed being a big time fantasy 1B.

Aaron Rowand - 5/5, 3 R, 2 RBI, HR (13). He continues his ridiculous contract year by getting the 2nd 5 hit game of the day. Owners have to be loving his production they picked off the waiver wire earlier this season.

Belated Monday Review

Manny Corpas - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (2). He's definitely secured the closer's job for Colorado at the moment. I doubt Colorado will be in any rush to return Fuentes to that role when he returns, so there's a chance that Corpas could close all year if he keeps pitching well. Besides, Fuentes, if healthy, has a decent chance of being traded as well.

Willy Taveras - 1/3, 3 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB (22). He's been in and out of the lineup a lot recently with groin problems, but it's obvious that he's feeling much better with the 2 steals. He's safe to activate again.

Victor Martinez - 1/3, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (17). Martinez is enjoying the best fantasy season at the catcher position this year outside of Russell Martin. He was definitely a far better value than Joe Mauer, being drafted up to 2 full rounds after him. Martinez is actually on pace for a career high in HR (needs 6 to tie) and RBI (needs 34 to tie) if he stays on the same pace he's currently on. Given they're using him more at 1B, he's less likely to wear down as opposed to being the fulltime catcher.

Paul Konerko - 1/5, 3 run HR. His AVG is up to .270, and he's also up to 19 HR on the season. With a solid finish, he'll probably reach 30 HR again. He definitely came through on my buy low suggestion back when he was struggling.

Kason Gabbard - 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Hard to get too excited here given that it was against the Royals, but you have to take notice anyways. Combining his performance through 5 starts (3-0, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) with Julian Tavarez pitching horribly, and he's probably the new 5th starter once Curt Schilling returns from the DL. I would take a wait and see approach in mixed leagues. The fact he pitches for Boston is enticing given the win potential, and the 25 K in 29 1/3 IP so far is nice as well, but the 14 BB is concerning.

Manny Ramirez - 1/4, solo HR (13). He's really starting to take off, and us owners can hope that it's for a longer period of time than his previous hot streak this year.

David Ortiz - 1/4, 2 run HR (16). Just like his buddy Manny, Ortiz is starting to heat up as well. These two have been dormant for a while, so I expect a nice finish if Ortiz is recovered from his leg injuries. The knee is still a concern, but hopefully Ortiz will continue finding ways to hit well despite it.

Chris Duncan - 2/3, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (18). I love the fact that LaRussa put him in the 4th spot last night behind Pujols. When the Cardinals are facing RHP, this is an excellent move to give Pujols a bit more protection than the aging Scott Rolen has offered. If Duncan can find a way to resolve his issues against LHP (.254 AVG, 1 HR), he could become a fantasy star. As is, he's a great platoon OF.

Vernon Wells - 2/4, 1 R. Sure enough, after his hot streak in the leadoff position, Wells was moved back to the 3rd spot in the order. This is great news for his fantasy value as his hits will result in more RBIs. Reed Johnson has resumed leading off, and if he can replicate last season's success after he shakes off the rust from his injury, him and Rios will give Wells plenty of RBI opportunities.

Mariano Rivera - 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K, SV (14). Anyone remember his struggles in April? He hasn't had an ERA above 1.74 in any month since then.

Tim Lincecum - 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 8 K. Thankfully he was unhittable last night because he didn't have his control from pitch #1. It's nice to see him put up such a great outing despite all the walks, but that sure won't happen very often.

Rich Hill - 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (6). He pitched very well last night even if he didn't rack up the Ks like usual. Pretty much what his owners expected against the weak Giants offense, and he got some great 8th inning heroics from the offense to pick up his 6th win.

Bob Howry - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (6). Howry's run as the closer is about out as Dempster is due back by the end of the week. He could be good for another save or 2 in the meantime, but he'll move back to a setup role with Marmol once Dempster returns.

Dmitri Young - 2/3, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (9). He's making himself a very attractive 1B for teams looking to upgrade at the deadline. He's turned himself it a very nice UTIL player for fantasy purposes, and a move to a contending team on a better offense would only increase his fantasy value. He's always been an excellent hitter, but injuries have held him back far more often than not.

Dave Bush - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (8). Another fine outing from Bush who's completely turned himself around since the beginning of June. All the runs came on solo HR. He's fine to use as a back-of-the-rotation starter in mixed leagues as his W, K, and WHIP will be very helpful.

Corey Hart - 1/4, solo HR (13). He's slowed down quite a bit recently, including not stealing a base since June 26th. He was due for this, but should maintain his value as a quality 3rd fantasy OF. I just hope you sold high on him before he backed off from the ridiculous pace he was setting for himself.

Ichiro Suzuki - 2/3, 1 R, SB (24). He's slowed down some too, but he has stolen a base in each of his last two games, so hopefully he'll start running more again after not stealing a base this month until Monday.

Jorge Sosa - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. A pretty successful return from the DL for Sosa, and you can pick him back up again in case he was dropped. He should be a fairly solid 5th starter for your fantasy team.

Brad Penny - 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. He struggled early, but really settled down and turned in a great performance. A few more starts like these will definitely make me think twice about him being due for a 2nd half collapse. I still think some rough times are ahead for him, though.

Jeff Kent - 1/2, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (12). It's been a strange season for Kent so far. He started off hitting .319 in April, but only had 2 HR. He followed that up by only hitting .225 in May, but slugged 6 HR. He was completely worthless in June, hitting .247 with 2 HR, but he's come back in July with a scorching .390 AVG with 2 HR so far. All in all, he's hitting ..281 with 12 HR, and given his cleanup position in the order, he's posted solid RBI/R totals as well. He's done being a great fantasy 2B, but he's still useful at the position.

Monday, July 16, 2007

Sunday's Action: Don't Pick Up Brian Sanches

Kevin Gregg - 1 IP, 2 K, SV (20). After going through some struggles, Gregg has pitched scoreless innings in 5 of his last 6 outings, and each of those 5 outings resulted in a save with 8 Ks. He's back on track as a valuable fantasy closer, and he doesn't have any job security issues.

Miguel Cabrera - 2/2, 2 solo HR (21). Cabrera has hit 3 HR in his last 2 games, and he is well on his way to smashing last year's disappointing total of 26 longballs. To think that he accomplishes what he does in a pitcher's ballpark is a bit scary.

Fausto Carmona - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W (11). About what owners expected in a matchup against the Royals. He's settled in nicely as a end-of-the-rotation starter that you were able to snipe off of the waiver wire, and the wins should keep coming with that explosive offense supporting him each time out.

Billy Butler - 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. The news here is that with Reggie Sanders due off the DL, it will be Gathright and not Butler who is sent down to make room. Butler remains a safe option as a UTIL guy while hitting 4th in that lineup. The Royals lineup is nothing to write home about, but he's hitting .312 with 3 HR, 17 RBI, and 11 R in 28 games. He's not Braun/Pence, but he's hitting well and producing reasonable fantasy stats for a rookie.

Ryan Garko - 2/3, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (11). He's had three 2 hit games in a row since the AS break, so he's come out hot. He's not a bad UTIL hitter depending on your roster. He's produced a .304 AVG with 11 HR, 34 RBI, and 38 R in 75 games so far.

Oliver Perez - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, W (8). He had a successful return to the rotation last night against the Reds and looks ready to roll from here on out.

Jose Reyes - 2/3, 2 run HR (6). Reyes has showed a bit more power coming out of the AS break with 2 HR and a double. One thing to note was that the New York Mets have added Ricky Henderson to their coaching staff. Henderson might be able to further develop Reyes OBP and SB ability, as scary as that sounds given how good he is already.

Corey Patterson - 2/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, SB (20). This is a weird year for Patterson. He continues to disappoint, but he's hitting .321 against LHP, and only .216 vs. RHP. Those are the exact opposite splits since Patterson has long had troubles against LHP, and hasn't had troubles against RHP before in his career. At any rate, he was hitting 2nd last night as he's getting bounced all over the lineup. He'd definitely add some fantasy value if he stuck there, but given his poor OBP and free swinging ways, he makes for a pretty bad #2 hitter.

Mike Mussina - 6 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K. He dodged bullets and was actually in line for the win before the bullpen blew the lead. He was hardly his sharpest yesterday, but given how well he's been pitching prior to this, I doubt this is any sort of problem.

Brad Hawpe - 1/4, solo HR (16). Hawpe is quietly producing a great season, hitting .303 with 16 HR, 61 RBI, and 47 R. He's been a very nice 3rd OF for fantasy teams this season.

Josh Beckett - 8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. A great outing from Beckett last night, but he was the victim of poor run support. After posting WHIPs of 1.04 and 0.88 the first two months, he's come back with WHIPs of 1.30 and 1.38 the last two months. Also worth noting is that after posting BAAs of .218 and .182 the first two months, he's come back with BAAs of .277 and .271 the last two months. All in all, his 3.35 and 1.14 WHIP are about in line with his talent level, although those might still grow a bit yet given the AL East has the strongest offenses from top to bottom than any division in baseball. In hindsight, I should have recommended a sell high after his unsustainable start, but he's settled in as a great fantasy starter regardless.

Dan Haren - 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. He had a ridiculous first 3 months, but he's sporting a 5.09 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP this month. Things are starting to even out for him, and given the overall 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP that he has, things figure to get a bit worse for him over the rest of the season. I'm tempted to suggest selling high on him before they do, but like I said before, aim high for who you want in return. The bottom won't fall out, but after looking into it, I just don't see him maintaining those sort of ratios all year long.

Derrek Lee - 3/3, 3 run HR (7), SB (4). Yes, his 7th HR. His career low 6.8% HR/FB ratio stands to improve in the 2nd half, so expect him to start hitting for more power down the stretch. I expect him to definitely improve his HR and RBI totals from here on out.

Jered Weaver - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Shields blew the game for him, so he didn't pick up the win even though he definitely deserved it. Both runs he allowed were unearned thanks to a couple of errors. He should improve on his current WHIP rate of 1.42 and continue being a solid fantasy starter.

Mark Teixeira - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (13). Welcome back, Tex. He should be ready to go on a tear given he's hit 3 doubles and a HR since returning.

Chone Figgins - 3/4, 1 R, 2 RBI, 3 SB (24). Not a bad way to end the week for his owners. Probably won quite a few steal catagories with this one.

Justin Verlander - 7 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, W (11). It has to be nice knowing that your starter can give up 4, maybe 5 runs and still come away with a win thanks to a ridiculous offense. Even on Verlander's off nights he has a chance to walk away the winner like he did here.

Gary Sheffield - 2/3, 2 R, 2 SB (16). The stolen base numbers are without question the most surprise aspect of Sheffield's return to fantasy greatness. For the year he's hitting .311 with 22 HR, 62 RBI, 82 R, and 16 SB. He's been an absolute monster, and will without question be overvalued next season.

Jamie Burke - 1/4, 1 R. It's bad times when you look in a box score in the opponent's SB department and see 5 lines of stolen base situations, including allowing one to Sean "Sweet Feet" Casey, who's slower than a flow of molasses.

Justin Germano - 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, W (6). Maybe he's not done yet. Still, the outlook over the rest of the season doesn't look good for him, so move him in a deal while you still can, pawning him off as a reasonable fantasy starter by his stats.

Brandon Webb - 5 2/3 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K. That's not the type of 10 K game his owners want. There's really no explanation for this one, and I was hoping for much more against a blah San Diego offense. His 1.32 WHIP, thanks mainly to his 49 BB (he had 50 all of last year), is keeping his ERA up higher than what we expected while drafting him. Unfortunately it doesn't look like we're going to get an extended 2006 version of Brandon Webb at any point this season. Let's just hope he closes strong.

Eric Byrnes - 1/3, 2 SB (19). He continues to excel in his true breakthrough season. Thanks to the stunted development of Chris Young and Stephen Drew, they're using him as a leadoff man or else his run production would be even better.

Albert Pujols - 3/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR (20). I like this Pujols guy. I wonder if he's pretending the baseball is LaRussa's face after the All-Star game benching. If so, keep it up.

Brian Sanches - 2 IP, 4 H, 2K, 4 HR. I think Jamie Burke has been topped on yesterday's pathetic performances given this is all Sanches' fault.

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Saturday's Recap

Cole Hamels - 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, W (11). Not his best work, but with the offensive explosion behind him, it was good enough to get him the win.

Jimmy Rollins - 3/5, 3 R, 1 RBI, HR (18). Rollins is proving his 25 HR explosion last year is not a fluke, and he has a great chance of re-setting his career high in HR this year.

Aaron Rowand - 4/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (12). He's coming through in a big way during his contract season as he has a chance to set a career high in AVG and RBI. He's been a great waiver wire find for the OF consistently producing like a 3rd OF all year long.

Albert Pujols - 2/4, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (18). He's busting out of that HR drought with HR in 2 straight games. Let's hope his work in the HR derby has helped Albert re-find his HR stroke and that it'll lead to a big 2nd half.

Derrek Lowe - 6 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. He was in line to pick up his 9th win until the bullpen blew a 7-2 lead for him. He's still pitching great and should maintain very good mixed league value all year long.

Matt Morris - 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 0 K. Back to the waiver wire he should go. He maintained value for longer that I anticipated, but like I've been warning for some time, he's gone south as his ERA has soared close to 4.00.

Roy Oswalt - 5 1/3 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Well that's not a nice way to treat me after I recommended buying low on you, Roy. I watched this game, and he was not getting some close calls that he normally did, and he completely unraveled as a result leading to a disasterous performance. As an observer of this game, I can tell you that he didn't pitch nearly as bad as his statline indicates. If anything, I believe this extends his buy low window, although he needs to cut back on the walks to make that happen.

Ted Lilly - 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W (9). Just what his owners expected facing a weak offense like Houston. Lilly has been another very solid late round mixed league starter this year, and he should produce very similarly to his current numbers for the rest of the season.

Alfonso Soriano - 2/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (16). He's hitting .341 this month, but this is his first HR of the month after 11 last month. Given his current season pace, he's going to be putting up one of his worst seasons of his career, although he does have a chance to set a career high in AVG. That just doesn't make up for the sub-30 HR and sub-25 SB paces he currently owns. He'll be more reasonably priced next year.

Sergio Mitre - 7 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W (4). Mitre continues to post mixed league worth stats despite a rough stretch, and is well worth using while he continues pitching like this.

Jeremy Hermida - Hermida is quietly hitting .353 this month with 3 HR and 7 RBI in 10 games. If you have a hole in your OF, he's worth considering given his talent and subpar numbers so far. Continued production like this is far from guaranteed, but he will turn the corner sometime soon and start producing like he's capable of.

Gil Meche - 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (6). Another subpar outing, as he continues pitching more like the mediocre pitcher most considered him to be. With the lack of wins and the lack of elite Ks, it's really hard to continue recommending him as someone to start each time out. I'd selectively play matchups with him.

C.C. Sabathia - 7 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Not what owners wanted in a matchup against KC, but after getting hit around early, he settled down nicely and didn't kill his owners by lasting 7 innings. Just a disappointing outing.

Javier Vazquez - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Vazquez was cruising until the 6th when he grooved a fastball to Millar, and then hung a curveball to Payton, both balls getting crushed out of the park. Typical Vazquez...always getting punished for bad pitches, and always making bad pitches in bad spots. Thanks to the bullpen again, he was denied the win. He was on quite a roll before this, so hopefully he doesn't crumble after this.

Nick Markakis - 3/5, 1 R, 2 RBI. Markakis is scorching this month with a .372 AVG, so maybe he can reward his owners with a 2nd half akin to last year when he produced a .311 AVG with 14 HR, 41 RBI, and 43 RBI.

Ben Sheets - 3 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Gulp. He left this start after damaging a finger on his pitching hand in a freak incident as the ball came out of his hand during a pitch. At best case, it's a simple sprained finger that won't be an issue. At worst case, he damaged a tendon much like Zumaya and he'll be gone for the year. Fantasy nation can pray for the best as he's due for an MRI on Monday if he's still feeling pain.

Yovani Gallardo - 4 2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 K. Pick him up immediately. If Sheets misses anywhere between a start to the season, Gallardo will pick up all of those starts and will be worth using in all leagues.

Rickie Weeks - 0-2, SB (10). He's now hitting .220 and has hit rock bottom in fantasy value. He's an interesting player to speculate on for a keeper league next year, but his value this year is on thin ice. He should not be active in any lineup until he shakes this slump. He's on the waiver wire in both of my leagues and hasn't been touched.

Chuck James - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. A great matchup for James last night against an impatient hitting ballclub with bad on base skills. Unfortunately his bullpen blew the 4-0 lead. I can't see using him each time out, but selectively using him in the right matchup seems like a good idea.

Tom Gorzelanny - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. A very good outing outside of the ER. He bunched hits together in the 1st inning, giving up 3 of those 4 ER in that inning. He's still pitching well but remains a sell high candidate as his ERA stands to rise.

Andruw Jones - 1/3, 2 run HR (17). He's back. You don't have much time left to buy low now as he's really hit his stride this month.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, W (11). A subpar outing, but good enough to get the win. He had a great run for a while, but has struggled in back to back outings. I don't see any cause for concern.

Julio Lugo - 3/4, 2 R, SB (24). If you need 2B/SS help, go get Lugo off your waiver wire if he's there. His .209 AVG is horrible and he was likely dropped because of it, but he's hitting .375 this month and if I had to guess, I'd imagine he'll hit .275 - .280 the rest of the way with very good steal totals.

Tom Glavine - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, W (8). The AL lit him up pretty good, but as expected, the return to the NL marked the return of Glavine as being a decent fantasy starter in mixed leagues.

David Wright - 2/4, 1 R, SB (20). He's already matched his career high in SBs as Wright makes his way towards his first 30 SB season.

Joe Blanton - 7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. He was off last night, but it wasn't a bad start either. He continues to be a mixed league asset, and he'll likely rebound from his 2 subpar performances. I do expect his ERA to go up a bit, though.

Chien Ming-Wang - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, W (10). His first start above 3 K since his 10 K performance. As I've said before, despite the lack of Ks, he's providing better fantasy mixed league value this year than last year, and he was actually underrated in drafts this year based on his performance so far.

Hideki Matsui - 2/5, solo HR (13). Matsui has slugged 5 HR in his past 8 games as he's finding the power that had been lost most of this season. Perhaps he's finally recovered from the wrist injury he sustained last year. Wrist injuries, on the whole, are bad news for power hitters and usually take a while to recover from, even though the player may seem healthy.

John Lackey - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (12). Not the best outing from Lackey last night, but good enough for the win.

Chone Figgins - 1/3, 1 R, SB (21). He's predictably cooled off a bit, but his .300 AVG, 21 SB, and 38 R in limited time are very impressive. He's been moved back up towards the top of the order, which obviously helps his fantasy value over the rest of the season.

Chris Young - 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. His ERA is now a league low 1.97 as his ridiculous season continues. Unfortunately his offense didn't support him enough. I'm still advising selling high thanks to his abnormal ERA and his history of slow 2nd halves. He just can't keep this up, but enjoy it while it lasts.

Khalil Greene - 1/4, solo HR (16). He had a great June hitting .292 with 6 HR and 17 RBI. He'll continue hitting HR, but he's also going to continue posting a bad AVG with decent run production due to his spot in the lineup. It'd be really interesting to see what he'd do offensively in a ballpark that doesn't favor pitchers so much, or if they'd just try him in the 3/4 hole considering the lack of power the rest of the lineup has.

Kenny Rogers - 5 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 0 K. Just didn't have it last night, and he was due for a bad outing anyways. I'd continue using him as a back-of-the-rotation mixed league starter.

Kenji Johjima - 1/3, GS (9). He's slightly behind last year's pace in HR/RBI/R, but he's still producing pretty well from a fantasy perspective and remains a reliable fantasy stater.

Friday's Action: Unearned Runs Galore

Carlos Zambrano - 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. He got into trouble in the 7th by loading the bases, but luckily Marmol came in and got a flyout to end it. Zambrano is still pitching as well as anyone in baseball despite the walks. He also went 2/3 at the plate with an RBI and a R as he continues to help his cause with his hitting.

Ryan Theriot
- 2/4, R, SB (15). He's back playing a little more now, and with Cliff Floyd hurting his knee again, the Cubs figure to him at SS, Fontenot at 2B, and DeRosa at RF a decent bit, giving Theriot fringe mixed league value again. If he can continue hitting around .280 in the 2nd spot, his speed will allow him to at least be useful as an injury replacement.

Brad Lidge - 1 IP, 2 K. Lidge made his return back to the Astros bullpen by pitching a perfect 7th inning. Expect him to receive the next save opportunity, but beware that Houston will look to trade him come the deadline. Odds are given his reputation and the chances that he won't be closing, you won't be able to get anything in return for him, so hopefully he'll get you a few saves in the meantime.

Dontrelle Willis - 3 2/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K. The fact 5 runs were unearned saved him from turning in a complete disaster. I don't think anyone would fault you for dropping him at this point. He's just not showing any signs of being useful, and he's really driving down his trade value as Florida has been rumored to be shopping him. Perhaps a change of scenery and a new pitching coach will help. Don't get caught up in the name game, but if he does get traded, make sure to keep an eye on him. At the least, don't start him again until he strings together multiple quality outings.

Josh Willingham - 1/4, 3 run HR (12). He was awesome last year with his catcher eligibility, smacking 26 HR with 74 RBI. Considering he's only OF eligible this year, he's not worth having on your team with only a .260 AVG and 13 HR. The 59 RBI are a good number, but that's the only catagory he's truly helping you with.

Dmitri Young - 1/4, 4 RBI. He put himself on the fantasy radar last month, hitting .377 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 16 R. He's back on his game again this month, hitting .333 with 1 HR and 10 RBI in 9 games. He continues being a useful injury replacement at 1B, or even a UTIL guy. He's great in a league like mine where we have 2 UTIL hitters.

Shaun Marcum - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. He didn't pitch quite as well as his numbers indicate here, but it was still a quality outing against the Boston Red Sox and he picked up the win as a result. He continues to have fringe mixed league value during his current run, but like many others before him, don't be afraid to cut bait if he starts struggling, or selectively start him while he's pitching well.

Manny Ramirez - 2/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (12). 2 straight big games. Please, please let him start turning it on in the 2nd half. He's off to a great start so far.

Mark Buehrle - 8 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Boned by his offense again. Despite an amazing 2.98 ERA, he only has 6 wins to show for it.

Erik Bedard - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Another amazing start by Bedard who is absolutely on fire. He had a very rough April by posting a 6.09 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, allowing 23 ER in the process. He's allowed 23 ER total since April. He's turned himself into an elite AL hurler, leading the league with 156 K in 128 2/3 IP. Not even pitching in the AL East has slown him down as he's seemingly taken yet another step forward this season.

Corey Patterson - 2/3, solo HR (3). After becoming one of the great waiver wire OF's in fantasy baseball last season, he's made himself unusable in fantasy leagues this year due to his .244 AVG and complete lack of run production. He's hitting .317 so far this month, so there's an outside chance he could re-emerge as an option in the 2nd half. Keep an eye on him if you need steals.

Chase Utley - 4/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (16). Stud.

Shane Victorino - 2/4, 2 R, SB (28). He's got his AVG back to .279, and his recent power surge has pushed his season total to 11 HR. Ironically given I just wrote about him, his current season totals and waiver wire eligibility heading into the season make him the 2007 version of the 2006 Corey Patterson.

Roger Clemens - 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. Perhaps those back to back 8 inning outings had him gassed, but he turned in a stinker against the Tampa Bay offense. His 6.2 K/9 IP is lower than usual, but given the league switch and his advanced age, it shouldn't be surprising. I think his stats right now, with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, are probably going to be about what we get from him this year. Like I said when it was announced he was coming back, he made for a great sell high candidate, and he's definitely making those who were able to deal him look quite smart.

Scott Kazmir - 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, W (6). Again with the walks. Those who walked down the plank and started him came back unscathed, but it was definitely a lucky outing against the strong Yankees offense. He's still not showing any signs of fixing his command issues.

Aaron Harang - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, W (10). Another good outing from Harang against the Mets, although the Mets have really been struggling on offense for a while now. Still, Harang pitched pretty well and his owners should be very pleased with the results.

John Maine - 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. Luckily 3 of the runs were unearned as he gave up 7 in total. This was just a flatout bad outing from Maine and nothing to be worried about.

Brandon Phillips - 3/5, 2 R, 6 RBI, GS (18). He's continuing to be the 2nd best fantasy 2B in baseball by adding his 2nd grand slam of the season. He's finally put all that potential together and is producing like the great ballplayer many thought he would become.

Lastings Milledge - 1/4, 2 run HR (1). Milledge hasn't done anything special since being called up, so I wouldn't pick him up or activate him until he gets hot, if he does while up. As I stated before, he'll get ample playing time while Alou is on the DL.

Ian Snell - 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. Like Willis and Maine before him, 3 unearned runs saved his outing from being a disaster. Unlike Willis, this is an isolated bad outing and not something to worry about.

Tim Hudson - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, W (9). Pretty much exactly what owners were hoping for with a matchup against the Pirates.

Brian McCann - 3/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR (11). McCann's really heating up after 2 bad months. He's hitting .296 this month with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 9 games. Let's hope he goes on the same 2nd half tear that he did last year.

Jeff Francis - 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (9). Bad ratios, but solid K numbers and he got the win. It's a real concern that he's given up 6 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts. I'd evaluate his next matchup before starting him.

Troy Tulowitski - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (10). He's really turned himself into a nice mixed league SS since a rough April. He's establishing himself in this league and I think he's a quality starting SS moving forward.

Ryan Braun - 2/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR (13). He's good.

Johan Santana - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, W (11). I'm not sure why teams bother fielding an offense against him once June and July roll around.

Joe Nathan - 2/3 IP, 1 H, SV (18). Remember when I complained about the hits he allowed in an outing which he gave up 3 more? Since then he's pitched 8 2/3 IP allowing 1 H, 0 BB, and striking out 10. He's back on top of his game as one of baseball's elite closers.

Greg Maddux - 4 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Maddux is really struggling, allowing 15 ER in his last 15 1/3 IP. HIs overall numbers make him look like a poor bet in mixed leagues, but odds are he'll figure out his struggles and resume being a fringe starter.

Jeremy Bonderman - 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, W (10). Another great start from Bonderman who improves to an impressive 10-1 on the year.

Adrian Beltre - 3/4, solo HR (14). Beltre continues his scorching July, hitting .447 with 4 HR and 14 RBI in 11 games. Much like Matsui before him, he's alternating poor and great months, so hopefully he'll remain a bit more consistent with this hot streak and close this year strong.

Kelvim Escobar - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. He's bounced right back from that shelling at Baltimore with 2 straight 1 ER performances. He's been one of the best late round pitchers in all of fantasy baseball this season, so we can all pray for continued health.

Kevin Millwood - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. Mixed leaguers really need to pay attention to Milwood now. That's 5 straight quality starts as it seems like he's shaken the injury bug that's plagued him throughout most of this year. If you have a hole in your rotation, give him strong consideration.

Chad Billingsley - 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, W (6). Another mixed league starter that should start receiving some attention. He had a very good rookie year, but was demoted to the bullpen to start the year for some unknown reason. Talk to Grady Little about that one as he's hardly been known as an intelligent manager. Regardless, those with holes in their rotation should give him consideration. He's a very good young pitcher with solid K potential, playing for a good team, and he has a solid bullpen behind him. His command will come and go, but he should be able to make up for that with more good performances than bad.

Matt Cain - 5 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Another blah outing from Cain who's not showing signs of returning to the dominant form he flashed to close last year. Owners should stick with him though as things figure to get better as the year wears on.

Friday, July 13, 2007

B.J. Upton Activated From The DL

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays activated 2B/OF B.J. Upton from the DL today.

For serious, yo.

Fantasy Impact: He'll start in CF tonight. He reportedly had much improved speed to first base, clocking in around 4.2 seconds compared to 5 seconds just a day or two ago. That's a pretty big difference, and obviously he felt just fine today after his game last night. Get him back in your lineup.

Welcome Back! Thursday In Review

I get broken in slowly with only a handful of games last night. It was nice to have something to watch again...I can only take so much bad TV.

Roy Halladay - 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. He's still struggling. He used to be an automatic start every time out, but don't let his history force you into starting him without thinking about it. He's proving that he's not on his game right now, but as I wrote in my buy low column, he's too good when healthy not to turn it around sometime soon. If you own him, I wouldn't start him against teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers unless he gives you a reason to.

Alex Rios - 3/4, solo HR (18). With a .299 AVG, he's not quite hitting at the same pace he was last year before getting hurt, but he's developed more power with 18 HR and also has kicked in 9 SB. I had him pegged at 25/15 heading into the season, and while my SB total is about on par, he's surprised us all by heading towards a 30 HR season. He should remain a solid 2nd tier fantasy OF for the next several years as he's finally arrived at age 26.

Manny Ramirez - 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI. The start of a big 2nd half? I sure hope so.

David Ortiz - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI. A nice game last night, but Ortiz has revealed that he has a torn meniscus in his right knee. He suffered the injury at some point during last season, but he said it's bothering him more this season. His .319 AVG is great, but his power is well down as he's only hit 14 HR so far this year. Unfortunately surgery is the only way to fix this issue, so I believe owners are in for a down year from Big Papi, at least in the power department. He also fouled a ball of his bad knee last night, so hopefully he'll play tonight.

Jon Garland - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (7). Garland keeps pumping out quality starts, and has been very good outside of the blowup in his last outing. Like I've said before, the stats just don't match up here, but he is what he is and he's worth using. The bullpen did their best to blow it, giving up 5 runs in the 9th until Jenks was called upon to get the last out, but they held on and Garland picked up his 7th win.

Jeremy Guthrie - 3 2/3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K. You knew it was coming. Shockingly, this is his first non-quality start since he moved into the rotation in May, which is extremely impressive. Unfortunately, I believe he's going to have more bad outings like this from here on out as teams figure him out. I'm not going to overreact to one start, so for those of you not looking to sell high (or if you just can't sell high with him), let's just treat this as the one bad start he's had so far.

Jim Thome - 2/4, solo HR (15). He's hitting like he's finally recovered from his back injury. If he puts together a nice hot streak (which he's been doing since before the AS break), and if your team is in contention, I still suggest trying to move him for a player less likely to break down for your stretch run. I'm not saying he'll definitely get hurt, but given the issues he battles each year and his "old" age, probability says he'll run into more health issues, even as just a DH.

Jermaine Dye - 3/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (13). Hopefully he's finally healthy. The White Sox could really use a hot streak out of him as they look to deal him. Considering that he's a veteran player, he'll most likely be dealt to a team in contention, which means moving to a better offense. US Cellular is a great HR park, but other than that changing, a trade will likely increase his fantasy value a bit. Nothing to write home about, however. His health is more important, but he's worth using again if you've been reserving him. In fact, he's not a bad buy low guy with the horrible numbers and the fact he's coming off an injury if you're looking for a lower end OF to fill out your roster.

Andy Pettitte - 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, W (5). He's still struggling out there, although this does qualify as progress, even if it was against Tampa Bay. If he's healthy, he'll continue to get better, although I think his ERA will hover around 4.00 the rest of the season.

James Shields - 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. The Yankees were not a good matchup for him, and I had him benched last night. I'm very happy I did with this line, although he always pitches deep into ballgames and doesn't get completely blown up. The HR has been his problem...he's allowed at least 2 in 4 of his last 7 starts. This is the 5th time in 6 starts he's allowed 4 ER or more, but I think he'll settle down. Just don't use him in those tough AL East matchups.

Bobby Abreu - 3/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (6). Let's hope, for once and for all, that he's finally getting hot and is ready to redeem his miserable first half. He's hitting a scorching .483 this month, so the stats say that he's ready to turn this thing around.

Brendan Harris - 2/4, 2 R. Harris continues to be a nice mixed league option at SS as he's hitting .313 with 8 HR, 39 RBI, 42 R, and 3 SB. His AVG is real nice, and while he's not great in any other catagory, he hits 3rd for the Rays behind Iwamura and Crawford, so he should have plenty of RBI chances.

Bronson Arroyo - 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. It seems like he's back on track. While he won't repeat the success he had last year for most of the season, I think he's redeemed himself back into a worthy spot in your mixed league rotation. That's not a bad line against a very good Mets offense.

Orlando Hernandez - 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, W (5). He's cruising right along being a very solid mixed league pitcher along the way.

Chad Gaudin - 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K. I said those walks were going to hurt him. Given his poor performance recently, it wouldn't be a bad idea to look for a different pitcher on the waiver wire such as Bronson Arroyo, or his opposition last night, Scott Baker.

Scott Baker - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. That's 4 good starts in his last 5 outings. I'd be tempted to pick him up in mixed leagues at this point since he might have finally figured things out. He has the talent to be a fairly solid end-of-the-rotation starter that you use in the right matchups.

Michael Cuddyer - 4/4, 1 R, 1 RBI. It's a shame that all those hits didn't parlay into more fantasy help, but his owners will take the 4 hit performance.

Andrew Miller - 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. He wasn't efficient last night, but he's continuing to pitch well enough to be worth starting in mixed leagues, especially with the powerful Detroit offense supporting him. They didn't get it done for him last night, but they will more times than not.

Felix Hernandez - 6 1/3 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. A little generous with the hits, but another solid performance from Hernandez last night, especially against the great Detroit offense. I'd plug him in against all but elite teams now as he's finally re-established quality mixed league value.

J.J. Putz - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, SV (25). He got his bad outing out of the way in the AS game and is continuing his reign as the top performance fantasy closer of 2007.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

B.J. Upton NOT Activated From The DL

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have chosen not to activate 2B/CF B.J. Upton from the DL today.

Fantasy Impact: Make sure to keep using your previous backup 2B for now. He's scheduled to play at least one more day in the minors. I'll update the site as soon as he's actually ready to come up.

Rich Harden To The DL

The Oakland Athletics placed SP Rich Harden on the DL with a right shoulder strain.

In related news, the sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning.

Fantasy Impact: If you have an open DL slot, there's no good reason not to stash him there. However, if you don't, drop him. I just can't see him having enough fantasy value, if he returns this season, to warrant wasting a bench spot on for however long he'll be out this time.

Lastings Milledge To Be Called Up

The New York Mets will promote OF Lastings Milledge from AA.

Fantasy Impact: Milledge missed a bunch of time in the minors this year with a sprained ligament in his foot, but he's recovered nicely and posted a .342 AVG with 4 HR, 13 RBI, and 6 SB in his games both before and after the foot injury. He'll take over as the Mets starting LF, and with the aging and often hurt Moises Alou, he could be there for a while. When Alou gets back I'm not sure what will happen with Milledge given Beltran is entrenched in CF, and Green was acquired to start in RF. The Mets would be better off moving Milledge to RF and benching Green since Green has hardly impressed, but I doubt they'll do that to the veteran. At any rate, Milledge will have fringe mixed league value while starting every day. I'm not sure how ready he is given his mediocre performance last year, but his power/steal skill combination is definitely worth monitoring.

Mark Teixeira, B.J. Upton, Brad Lidge Activated From The DL

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have activated 2B B.J. Upton from the DL

Fantasy Impact: He'll be starting in CF tonight, so get him back into your lineup.

The Texas Rangers will activate 1B Mark Teixeira from the DL, and the Houston Astros will activate closer Brad Lidge from the DL on Friday.

Fantasy Impact: I'm going to try to report these DL activations a day ahead of time if I know about it so that you can clear a spot for them on your roster. Get both back in your lineup. Lidge should return as the closer since Wheeler hardly helped his cause during Lidge's absence.

My Fantasy Teams

Alright, here's a rundown of my two teams so far. Both teams are from a 12 team, 5x5 rotisserie scoring league. I've put how I acquired each player in parenthesis.

4 Keeper League (2nd place, 4.5 games out of 1st):

C - Joe Mauer (6th round keeper)
1B - Mark Teixeira (1st round keeper)
2B - B.J. Upton (14th round pick)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (15th round pick)
3B - Alex Gordon (Free Agent)
OF - Carlos Beltran (Traded Alfonso Soriano/Joe Blanton for him)
OF - Manny Ramirez (Traded Alex Rios/Brandon Webb for Manny Ramirez/Ben Sheets)
OF - Hideki Matsui (Traded Hunter Pence/Howie Kendrick/Kevin Gregg for Hideki Matsui/Derrek Lee)
UTIL - Derrek Lee (See Above)
UTIL - Dmitri Young (Free Agent)
Bench - Josh Hamilton (Free Agent), Chris B. Young (17th round pick), Mike Cameron (Free Agent)

SP - Jake Peavy (3rd round pick)
SP - Ben Sheets (See Manny Ramirez)
SP - Tim Lincecum (Free Agent)
RP - Joe Nathan (4th round pick)
RP - Takashi Saito (9th round pick)
RP - Manny Corpas (Free Agent)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (Traded Scot Shields/Dan Johnson for him)
Bench - Yovani Gallardo (Free Agent)
DL - Curt Schilling (8th round pick)

That trade for Matsui and Lee was huge for my offense, plus I get both Teixeira and Upton back from the DL after the AS break. That trade seems a bit lopsided, but the player trading him to me wasn't going to keep either guy, and Hunter Pence can be kept indefinitely for a 22nd round pick, so he has a ton of value in a league of that sort. It's a stupid keeper rule to be able to keep someone indefinitely at whatever round they were acquired in, but I didn't make it. I wanted to hang onto him, but I was offered enough to move him so that I'd have a chance to win it all. I have a decent amount of room to move up in the offensive catagories, so I have some room to grow here, especially with all the offensive upgrades I've made through my trade and getting those 2 guys back from the DL. I'm done making moves for now. I have an empty roster spot, and I'm eyeing Zito and Arroyo on my waiver wire. Arroyo gets the Mets tonight, so I didn't want to grab him yet. If he pitches well tonight, I'll add him and go with him over Zito. If he doesn't, given his overall numbers, I can wait til he gets a better matchup to pick him up, and then keep an eye on who Zito gets next.

Redraft League (2nd place, 0.5 games out of 1st):

C - Bengie Molina (Free Agent)
1B - Albert Pujols (Traded David Ortiz and Dan Wheeler for him after his horrendous start)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round pick)
SS - Troy Tulowitski (Free Agent)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round pick)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round pick)
OF - Jeff Francouer (11th round pick)
OF - Eric Byrnes (13th round pick)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round pick)
Bench - Willy Taveras (20th round pick)

SP - Carlos Zambrano (Traded John Maine and Nick Markakis for him)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round pick)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round pick)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round pick)
SP - James Shields (Free Agent)
SP - Oliver Perez (Free Agent)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round pick)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round pick)
RP - Hideki Okajima (Free Agent)
RP - Scot Shields (18th round pick)
DL - A.J. Burnett (Traded Al Reyes for him)

My biggest mistake was jumping the gun and dropping Kevin Gregg after the Marlins traded for Benitez. If I still had Gregg, my bullpen would be fine. As is, I only have one closer. I've been trying to trade for one for quite a while, but I just can't find any takers since everyone seems to overvalue saves in this league, although I knew that during the draft when mediocre closers were flying off the board in the middle rounds. My offense is fine except for steals, but I do have Taveras on the bench and have plugged him in when Bay and Francouer were slumping and got a few steals there. I don't worry much about steals and saves because I have won without them before, but I really need to jump on the next closer that emerges so I can try to pick up a few points in that catagory.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Buy Low, Sell High!

My promised Buy Low/Sell High column is here, so let's get to it. The main thing to keep in mind here is not what the player has done so far and where his stats sit, but moreso what he'll do for you once he's on your team.

BUY LOW

Travis Hafner - He'll be a bit harder to buy low on given the big name, and the big production his name has brought the last two seasons, but his numbers thus far are mediocre at .262, 14 HR, 57 RBI, and 49 R. His RBI and R are there, but his AVG and HR are not, and those two stats tend to stand out more to owners. See if you can get him at a discount because his 2nd half should resemble his past 2 seasons of production.

Manny Ramirez - Much like Hafner, his numbers in the 1st half don't resemble his previous seasons. He's hitting .284 with 11 HR, 45 RBI, and 45 R. His HR are down the most, but he's almost always a .300+ hitter, and his 45 RBIs are well off his usual pace. Don't bid too aggressively for him due to the fact he's 35 years old now, but I can't imagine him not improving on those numbers in the 2nd half.

Vernon Wells - It's going to be a bit harder to get him given his recent power surge, but his overall numbers are quite disappointing for those who don't follow recent trends as closely. His .253 AVG and 13 HR are not what they should be, so he's due for a bigger 2nd half. Like I've mentioned before he has a spotty track record over the past several years, but he has the talent to put together a much better 2nd half, and I'd bet that he'll come through on that.

Jason Bay - I've ranted and written about him numerous times here, so you know the story. He's hitting .254 with 13 HR. Again, like most of his list, the 56 RBI and 43 R are about in line with what you expect from him. However, more owners will be inclined to look at the terrible AVG and low HR total, and you can capitalize off of that. He's a streaky hitter, but given the subpar first half, he should be much more good than bad in the 2nd half of the season.

Andruw Jones - He's had the most brutal 1st half of them all, posting a .211 AVG. His HR/FB% is well down from his career norm, so we can only assume that it will even out in the 2nd half. The 15 HR and 54 RBI are not bad at all, but he's due to hit at least .250 this half, with more longballs and run production.

Paul Konerko - This won't work at all for the people paying attention to recent trends with as well as he's been hitting, but the very disappointing .262 AVG might allow you to get him at a discount. He's been hitting much better for over a month now, so he's already on the way up. Expect .280+ and 15 HR the rest of the way.

Brian McCann - This is another tricky one, but given his gaudy stats from last year, you might be able to find an owner down on him. He's been a pretty solid fantasy catcher with 9 HR and 49 RBI, but he's not matching what he did in his first full season last year. Expect him to keep improving and take a shot at getting him for a lower price than normal.

Adam LaRoche - He's quietly getting back on his game, and he can be had very cheap given his horrible .239 AVG. He's hitting.407 with 3 HR already this month, and he had a big 2nd half last year with a .323, 19 HR, 48 RBI split after the AS break. Get him for cheap and hope he does the same thing. Perhaps he and Bay will get it going together.

Roy Oswalt - The 3.53 ERA and 1.38 are not at all what owners were looking for when drafting Oswalt, likely as their ace. He went through a rough stretch of games, but he bounced back and pitched well against the Mets in his last outing. He's done being an elite K pitcher, but his ratios should be lower in the 2nd half, and you might be able to get him from a frustrated owner.

Felix Hernandez - He was pretty terrible after returning from elbow tenderness/soreness, but he's looked much better in 3 of his last 4 outings. The peripherals say he's back on top of his game, but his overall numbers are still a bit ugly. He's a risk being so young, but he's worth the gamble if he's re-found himself. I expect a better 2nd half.

Roy Halladay - He comes with probably the most amount of risk on this list, but his 4.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are well above his normal standards. As long as he's healthy, which is a big if from him, I expect a much better 2nd half. As I mentioned before, he's not the best risk for teams looking to make a final move to stay on top, but he's a good risk for teams looking to take on uncertainty to make a big push up the standings.

Chris Carpenter - Carpenter can probably be had very cheaply, and he turned in a very good 2nd rehab start. He might have even been dropped in your league. This is a great guy to trade for (if you can get him cheap) and stash for teams making a run. Given the low price tag I'm assuming he'll cost, he could give you an ace on your staff once he returns. This isn't a muscle or ligament injury...it was a bone spur. That makes a world of difference in shortening recovery time for a pitcher.

Chris Ray - I know I was wrong in saying he was a buy low a while ago as he's continued to struggle, but his peripherals still say that his 1st half performance was bad luck and nothing else. Point to the 4.89 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and get a quality closer for cheap.

SELL HIGH

Magglio Ordonez - He's not going to hit .367 this season. He's going to have a decline in the 2nd half, although I'm not sold it'll be a steep one at all. Still, he hasn't homered since June 2nd, and that's not a fluke...his power hasn't been the same since coming to Detroit. Be selective in who you move him for, but I'd much rather have an established stud OF for the 2nd half such as Vladdy, Holliday, or someone of that status than Ordonez. He'll be a R/RBI force in the middle of that lineup, but his AVG should decline and his power has already started.

Hunter Pence/Ryan Braun/Corey Hart - These guys are only here in redraft leagues...don't move them in keeper leagues unless you don't plan on keeping them. They've put up huge numbers so far, so try to use them to get a proven stud in return. These guys aren't going to hit .350 or post a 30/30 pace all season long, so rid your hands of them before they inevitably start slumping.

Dan Haren - Like I've mentioned before, only move him if you can get a strikeout stud in return as part of a bigger deal. I don't expect a collapse in the 2nd half, but his 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP just won't happen again in the AL over the rest of the year. You could probably find a handful of pitchers that will outperform him the rest of the way.

Chris Young - Pretty much the same as Haren, but I expect him to regress more. His 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are insane, and he's shown a propensity to wear down as the season progresses the last several years. He won't keep this up, but if he's your 3rd or 4th starter, don't worry too much. His value is about as high now as it'll be though, so capitalize on it if you can.

Brad Penny - Exact same situation as Young. Something always seems to happen to him in the 2nd half of the season, and I think his established value right now is as good as it'll get. That 2.39 ERA is due to go over 3.00 by the end of the year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his 2nd half ERA sit around 4.00 or thereabouts.

Jeremy Guthrie - His numbers over 102 IP are great, with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He pitches in the AL East, and he'll be facing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays a lot more in the 2nd half. You won't get much for him straight up, but he's a quality 2nd piece to include in a trade if you're looking to upgrade somewhere.

Chad Cordero/Eric Gagne/David Weathers/Octavio Dotel/Al Reyes - I expect most, if not all, of these guys to be traded by the trading deadline. Ostuka from Texas could be dealt as well. They're all veteran relievers who don't have much of a future closing on their current teams, and they're all pitching well right now with the exception of Reyes who is hurt. Trade them before they are moved and are not closing anymore, whether you use them to upgrade to a closer with more job security, or you use them to upgrade a different position if you're set in the bullpen.

Alan Embree/Antonio Alfonseca - These 2 guys are closers on borrowed time. Use them in a trade while they still have value. Embree is a bit safer to keep his job if Street stays out a while, but Alfonseca is dodging the return of two guys (Gordon, Myers) and won't be closing for much longer.

Monday, July 9, 2007

Sunday's Recap - All Star Break Is Here

Well, at least there's two nights of baseball for us, still. The Home Run Derby is tonight, and then the All Star game tomorrow night. I enjoy watching all of the great players in these games since I don't see most of them with any regularity. Wednesday sucks, though, since there's absolutely nothing on that day. It gives us fantasy baseball players a chance to step back, relax for a few days, and then evaluate our weaknesses and prep our teams for the stretch run. Or, if you're out of it and are in a keeper league, it's time to acquire a few building blocks for next year. On to the recap of the last day of action before the break:

Ervin Santana - 3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Absolutely disgusting, even if it was against the Yankees. Santana is just too good of a pitcher to have a 5.97 ERA, and given the home/road splits I've mentioned before (3.42 ERA at home, 8.59 ERA on the road), it's obvious that his mental state is the problem here. Because of this, Angels manager Mike Scioscia has talked about removing him from the rotation. Those of you spot starting him at home should take note of this as Scioscia is obviously tired of the subpar performance. No official announcement has been made yet, so don't drop him yet if you own him.

Chien Ming Wang - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (9). Wang continues to disappoint in the K catagory by posting a measley 48 K in 104 1/3 IP, but with the 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and the 9 wins, he's been a very good 3 catagory pitcher. He should have no problem maintaining this pace in the 2nd half.

Alex Rodriguez - 2/5, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (30). He took the HR lead back from Prince heading into the break. There's been no question that he's been the fantasy MVP this year with a .317 AVG, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 79 R, and 9 SB. Not only that, but he was often taken in the middle of the 1st round behind guys like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, and sometimes trendy youngsters like Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera. I had him 2nd on my draft board behind Pujols as I felt his subpar year last year was causing him to become undervalued in the draft this year, and sure enough that was the case. I wasn't expecting him to be this good, obviously.

Hideki Matsui - 1/3, 3 run HR (11). Matsui has been a mild disappointment, only hitting .274. However, he's now up to 11 HR and 53 RBI along with 46 R, so he's right in line with all his other stats. He should be a lock for .290/10/50/50 after the All Star break, so he's a great piece to go after in a keeper league for teams looking to shore up their lineup, especially if you dangle keeper material in return.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Well, his streak had to end somewhere, and it came against the powerful Detroit offense. He had been on quite a roll prior to this start, putting together 6 straight appearances of 2 ER or less. No worries...a great offense got to him yesterday.

Manny Ramirez - 0/1, K. Ramirez didn't start due to a stomach ailment, but he took some antibiotics and was able to pinch hit. He'll be fine after the break health-wise, and us fantasy owners have to hope that he'll kick it into gear with his bat. The .284 AVG with 11 HR and 45 RBI has been a complete downer so far. His doubles total is up as he's hit 20 already this year, compared to 27 last year and 30 the year before. Hopefully those will become HR in the 2nd half.

Josh Barfield - 2/3, SB (9). He's been a huge disappointment after starting the year as a popular 2B sleeper. He did hit .317 last month, although didn't hit a HR and had only 2 SB. He has a chance to turn it around hitting in a great offense, so don't completely forget about him if you're struggling at 2B in the 2nd half.

Travis Hafner - 1/3, BB. I'm going to label him the 2006 Mark Teixeira of 2007...a bigtime hitter who puts in a very disappointing first half, but explodes to normal numbers in the 2nd half. Hafner had 2 huge seasons prior to this one, but his production has inexplicably dropped off the map with only 11 2B and 14 HR so far to go along with his .262 AVG. I think he is the biggest and best buy low opportunity out there right now. He's hitting .303 so far this month, so his AVG is there. I think the power will follow.

Aaron Harang - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. An outstanding performance from Harang, only to be wasted by David Weathers when he blew the save in the 9th. Harang is right on track with his breakthrough season last year, and he's posting a career-best 1.18 WHIP as well. Owners are getting exactly what they wanted from him this year so far.

Chris Young - 1/5, HR (13). 6 LOB yesterday as he continues to struggle. As I've mentioned before, I think he'll improve in the 2nd half on his .233 AVG. With 13 HR and 9 SB he's providing decent fantasy output from those catagories, but he's not doing enough in the others to be worth starting, and the AVG is a huge drag. Keep him rostered because he should start to figure things out more in the 2nd half. He's a great guy to target in keeper leagues as his breakthrough season might be next year.

Felipe Lopez - He's hitting .333 with 2 SB this month. I liked him heading into this year as a solid SB guy in the middle infield, but the .242 AVG is a disaster and he's only stolen 11 bases. Odds are he's not going to be relevant in fantasy leagues again, but don't completely forget about him if he starts to get his AVG up and steals bases again. He's eligible at both 2B and SS, which is handy.

Carlos Zambrano - 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He was wild from the get-go last night, and just didn't have his A game with him. It's a shame because he could have put up quite a stat-line against the Pirates, but it's also a good thing as a better offense would have lit him up yesterday. He was due for a let down, but yet still turned in a pretty good outing thanks to the matchup.

Jason Bay - 2/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (13). He had good numbers against Zambrano, so I threw him in there yesterday and he responded with his best game in over a month. It's a shame that the All Star break comes directly after he finally hits well, so let's hope this is a springboard for a much better 2nd half. Behind Hafner, I believe he's the 2nd best buy low guy out there right now. He's had too good of a career up to the 1st half this year to suggest this is some sort of major problem.

Javier Vazquez - 9 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. 2 straight complete games as Vazquez is in the middle of his best stretch in a White Sox uniform. Owners have to be loving this as he's pitching like a fantasy ace recently. Like I've said before, his long history shows that this won't keep up. Perhaps he's logged enough quality starts in a row here for you to be able to sell high in some fashion, but I doubt it. Wouldn't hurt to try.

Justin Morneau - 2/4, 2 run HR (24). He's alternating blah and great months. He hit .271 with 6 HR in April, .314 with 10 HR in May, .247 with 4 HR in June, and he's up to .417 with 4 HR in July. Overall, it's equated to .295 with 24 HR and 74 RBI, so he's improving on last year's power numbers while keeping his AVG at a nice number.

Jim Thome - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (14). Dang it, Thome was also starting to get hot when the All Star break hits. He was hitting .333 with 4 HR and 13 RBI already this month as he got hot for the first time since back in April. Hopefully this will continue after the break. It appears his back is finally healthy again, although further problems seem likely. If you're a contending team, you might look to deal him for a younger power hitter to avoid any further issues with him.

Roy Oswalt - 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (8). A Carlos Beltran HR ruined what was turning out to be a terrific start from Oswalt. He finally showed some progress from what had been a long string of mediocre starts, and I believe he could be had at a discount given that. He's likely to bounce back with a much stronger 2nd half than how he pitched in the 1st half.

Jose Reyes - 2/5, 2 SB (46). He's definitely justifying the high price tag (most likely a top 3 pick) due to the insane amount of SB he's put in so far. With a .307 AVG and 47 walks (.387 OBP) in 86 games, he's taken a big step forward in being a true leadoff man for the Mets. After the 19 HR last year I'm sure many people were expecting 20-25 HR this year, but he's only delivered 4 HR so far. The reason is that he's turning himself into a more well-rounded leadoff at the sacrifice of his power. He's looking to get on base and set the table rather than swinging for the fences. Fantasy owners might complain a bit, but thanks to the position he plays, the tons of SB, and the great R/AVG numbers, I personally believe he's worth it.

Scott Kazmir - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Ridiculous. He can't even pitch well against the Royals. His 4.41 ERA and 1.58 WHIP would be on the waiver wire if it weren't for the big name, just as I said about Dontrelle Willis. The only thing you can do is bench him and hopefully he can figure something out over the break. He hasn't had a truly good start in over a month, and he's been insanely inefficient with his pitches.

Jonny Gomes - 4/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). Tampa Bay has been smart and given him consistent playing time for a while now, and he's responded doing what he does best...getting on base and hitting for power. He has 8 HR, 10 2B, and 22 RBI in 133 AB so far this year. He's not going to hit much above .260, but he has legit power and should be owned in mixed leagues while he's playing regularly.

Barry Zito - 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K. Dontrelle Willis and Scott Kazmir, anyone? Who would own his 4.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP if it weren't for his name? I outlined his vs. AL/vs. NL team splits earlier, and I still think he'll be a quality fantasy pitcher in the 2nd half of the season. He had control problems against Cincy two times ago, and STL roughed him up along with some more control problems last time out. He was dropped in one of my leagues, and I'm tempted to pick him up to see how he fares after the break. I'd keep him benched unless it's a great matchup next time out, though.

Albert Pujols - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. He's gone power cold, again. He hasn't hit a HR in 22 straight games, and he's frustrating owners. He's hitting .345 this month, and he's driving in an adequate amount of runs, but he's just not hitting like we expect him to this season in the overall sense. The HRs should come, though.

Kevin Millwood - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. His overall numbers are ugly, but he's turned in 4 straight quality starts, and he's won 4 of his last 5 apperances. I don't think he'll remain consistent enough to become rosterable, but I think he should be considered in spot-starting situations.

Nick Markakis - 2/4, 1 RBI. He was a very popular sleeper heading into the season, but much like Mark Teahen, a big hot streak and limited numbers made him look better than he was. He's hitting .280 with 9 HR, 51 RBI, 46 R, and 9 SB, so he's been pretty good, but he's not putting up the 25/100 line or better that some people were expecting. He is what he is right now, a solid 3rd OF, but at 23 years of age, he has some room for growth. Unless he has a big finish, he'll be a better pick next year after the hype has died down.

Kaz Matsui - 2/4, solo HR (3). He's been quietly putting together quite a nice fantasy season for a 2B, hitting .312 with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 39 R, and 16 SB in only 189 AB. He's finally becoming the fantasy player that many expected when he was brought over by the New York Mets. There's no reason he should be left unowned in any league.

Joe Blanton - 6 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. He was due for one of these. He actually got into an altercation in this game that got him ejected. A throw home got away from the catcher, and a Seattle player was standing nearby. Blanton fairly innocently shoved him out of the way to pick up the ball, and then Ellison from Seattle shoved him back, starting a bench-clearing brawl. Given the joke that is suspensions for starting pitchers, he won't miss any time if he is punished by the league.

Russell Martin - 2/2, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (11). With a .306 AVG, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 51 R, and 16 SB, Martin is having a dream season for catchers. I definitely made a mistake not paying more attention to him. He had very nice numbers last year for a 23 year old catcher, and to think that he'll get better with age is a bit scary.

Greg Maddux - 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Maddux was screwed by a very stingy umpire last night, and his performance indicates that. I wouldn't worry too much about this start and he'll continue being a solid end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter this year.

Bob Wickman - 1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Thanks to his 16/20 SV conversion ratio, he's not giving Bobby Cox any reason to remove him from the closer's role despite Rafael Soriano being a much better bet to close. If Wickman weren't closing, odds are he wouldn't be a very good reliever anyways. Fantasy owners are paying a price for the saves he's providing this year as he now has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP.

Andrew Jones - 3/3, 2 R, 2 SB (5). Jones is coming to life, so your buy low window is closing quickly. Act now because you'll get vintage Jones in the 2nd half.