RB1 Value Analysis Recap

1) LaDainian Tomlinson

ADP: 1.1 (1st round, 1st pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: What an odd year for LT, and crazily enough, he was worth a top 2 pick. I was right that 2008 was the year he would start to fade, although it was mostly due to a toe injury. The rare times he felt 100%, he looked like the old LT, but it was far too infrequent. Still, he finished 6th, and of the other 1st rounders, only AP finished ahead of him.

2) Adrian Peterson

ADP: 2.2 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 4th

Overview: AP looked like his usual dominant self for most of the season, playing in all 16 games and avoiding the injury bug. He led the league in rushing, and Frerotte's insertion into the lineup gave the Vikings some semblance of a passing attack for a while. He pretty much performed as expected.

3) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th

Overview: In an odd way, Westbrook actually did live up to his draft position. Despite finishing 10th, only 3 other first rounders finished ahead of him, and if you handcuffed Buckhalter to him, you got some pretty good production in the games that Westbrook missed. Westbrook's injuries were certainly a problem as they hindered his production in a few games, and that certainly isn't going away.

4) Steven Jackson
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 15th

Recap: Jackson actually produced pretty well, especially down the stretch, when he wasn't hurt. However, during the 4th quarter of his monster effort against Dallas, Jackson injured another leg muscle that cost him several games. He honestly shouldn't have been out there in a game that was over, but given the ineptitude of the STL coaching staff, you probably weren't surprised. However, those injuries, as I warned you about, didn't allow Jackson to be worth the high pick.

5) Joseph Addai

ADP: 4.7 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 38th

Overview: Bust. Addai played like crap, battled numerous nagging injuries again, and only post a couple serviceable games. Addai simply isn't a feature back, and I don't expect the Colts to fully trust him outside of a committee again.

6) Marion Barber
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 17th

Overview: Barber was a top RB until the Dallas team collapsed. Romo's injury allowed defenses to stack the box, and then after he returned, Barber suffered a toe injury that ruined the last 5 weeks of his season. Those who thought Barber would wear down could claim I told you so from the numbers and injury, but it was a freak injury and he was as strong as ever prior to the injury.

7) Frank Gore
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 14th

Recap: Gore was tearing it up until an ankle injury slowed him down considerably the last 5 weeks, including 2 missed games. He was a perfect all-around fit in Martz's offense and put up the numbers of an RB1 when he played. The injury derailed his season, but he certainly looked like a stud for most of the season.

8) Larry Johnson
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 30th

Recap: Bust. LJ actually got off to a promising start against some weak defenses, but between the various off-the-field altercations, the suspension, and the poor performance, LJ simply never returned to form.

9) Clinton Portis
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 9th

Overview: Portis was dominating the first half of the season, but the large workload it took him to get there caught up with him, and he faded badly down the stretch. Campbell's continued inconsistent play also hurt as teams loaded up against the run. Portis actually lived up to his draft status, especially if you replaced him down the stretch when he faded, but he wasn't undervalued given the slow finish.

10) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 13th

Overview: Lynch put up a solid season, but the Bills fascination with Fred Jackson killed Lynch's upside. Jackson is clearly the favored 3rd down back, and he comes in far too often as a replacement for Lynch. There's no question that Jackson is talented, but Lynch is a better 1st/2nd down RB that should have received more carries. Lynch was a solid value pick, but not a difference maker that I thought he'd be.

11) Ryan Grant
ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 22nd

Overview: Grant started off very slow, but picked things up in the 2nd half of the season and finished relatively strong. TDs were a problem as he only scored 5 all season despite Green Bay having a powerful offense, and he was inconsistent as he offered nothing in the passing game until the final 3 games. He certainly wasn't RB1 material.

12) Willis McGahee
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 35th

Overview: McGahee's season was a mess. His knee surgery cost him week 1, and then he was in and out of the lineup between various injuries and game planning decisions. He wasn't even an RB2 this year despite being drafted as an RB1.


RB1 Summary: I was pretty on par with most of my value analysis for the RB1s. I had a couple minor misses as my RB1 favorites Barber, Portis, and Gore hurt their "under valued" ratings with late season fades, and Westbrook was actually a solid pick. I definitely hit the busts of the group in Addai, LJ, Grant, and McGahee. Only 4 of the top 12 RBs finished in the top 12, which is pretty high turnover!

QB Value Analysis Recap

1) Tom Brady
ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in week 1, ending his season immediately. If you avoided him, like I suggested, you avoided a disaster.

2) Peyton Manning
ADP: 18.2 (2nd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: Manning started off slowly, as expected, coming off of knee surgery. However, if you were patient with him, he turned in a 2nd half like you expected. You pretty much got what you drafted here: a slow start and a consistently good-great QB1 afterwards.

3) Tony Romo
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th.

Recap: Romo started off on fire, but then disaster struck with a pinkie injury, and TO started to take over the team with his bad attitude. Another good avoid call here.

4) Drew Brees
ADP: 32.0 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 1st

Recap: Brees was a monster in 2008, and you could have techincally called him over-valued, as taking him in the 2nd round would have turned out OK, but he was perfect in the 3rd after nailing down 2 other top players.

5) Carson Palmer
ADP: 42.0 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: Oops. Palmer looked out of synch early on, with CJ pretty much MIA, and then suffered a serious elbow injury that ended his season in week 4. This was a horrible call.

6) Ben Roethlisberger
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 19th

Recap: Big Ben's TD passes certainly dropped alright, to about half of his 2007 total. The Steelers' offense balanced out his somewhat flukish 2007 season as they had more success running the ball in the red zone, and Big Ben's pass attempts stayed very low. His offense line gave him poor protection as well.

7) Derek Anderson
ADP: 54.4 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Recap: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: Anderson sucked and then lost his job. He simply doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL starter.

8) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 60.2 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: As expected, Hasselbeck suffered without many playmakers around him, and then he suffered a back injury to boot which caused him to miss numerous games. Another good avoid call.

9) Donovan McNabb
ADP: 65.4 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 7th.

Recap: McNabb was more appropriately valued than under valued, as things ended, but that was mostly due to a horrible stretch that resulted in his benching against Baltimore. It was the kick in the ass he needed as he closed very strong and tacked on an excellent playoff run. There's just no way I see him leaving Philly this offseason.

10) Eli Manning
ADP: 83.6 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 13th.

Recap: The Giants were powered by their running game and defense all season, and Plaxico's rollercoaster ride combined with his shooting injury left Manning with very little receiving talent to work with. He was a solid backup and nothing more.

11) Jay Cutler
ADP: 86.0 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 4th.

Recap: Awesome. Cutler slung it all season long and racked up huge fantasy numbers. Despite some poor decision making and all the pressure that resided on his shoulders, he came through far more often than not for his fantasy owners and was an outstanding value.

12) Marc Bulger
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: Hot freakin vomit. The Rams just flat-out sucked and sunk every single player not named Steven Jackson. Bulger was in and out of the lineup and never had any rhythm. I should have taken the horrible talent behind Torry Holt into account here.

With the top 12 starters profiled, I'll list some sleepers here now:

15) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 115.3 (10th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 3rd

Recap: Brett who? Rodgers was a legit stud QB from week 1, using the great receiving talent around him and a pass-happy offense to rack up great fantasy numbers. He even made Packers fans forget about Favre's toughness by playing through a separated throwing shoulder and not missing a beat. His future is very bright.

16) Matt Schaub
ADP: 117.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 20th

Recap: Matt Schaub had a rough start, then performed quite well when in the lineup, but missed some time due to various injuries. His durability continues to be a question mark, but there's no question the kid can play. He could be under valued again next year.

17) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 131.8 (11th round, 12th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 21st.

Recap: Miss. Who needs to throw when your 2 RBs score all the time? He made great use of Steve Smith, but wasn't called on to do much passing with the running game working so well.

18) Vince Young
ADP: 136.6 (12th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: While I still believe in Young's talent, his head is a freakin' mess. I don't think I need to recap what little of a season that he had, so suffice it to say that I wasn't on the mark at all here.

24) Tarvaris Jackson
ADP: 201.9 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Overview: Jackson lost the job with poor play to Gus Frerotte, but actually was a huge help to owners who dared use him down the stretch in 2008, especially during week 16. He again looked horrible against Philly in the playoffs, and barring some unforseen offseason events, he shouldn't be a starter again in the NFL. The physical skills are undoubtedly there, but his head and accuracy are major problems. He doesn't know how to handle blitzes.

25) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.9 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the FF graveyard.

Recap: Smith never overcame the shoulder injuries that have derailed his career and missed the entire season.

QB Analysis Overall: Carson Palmer was a disaster, and a couple of my sleepers missed the mark by quite a bit, but overall I did quite well profiling the QBs. I forgot to make a late addition to this article for Kurt Warner, but I advised all to draft him as a risky QB1. That risk paid off, and then some. One huge omission was Phillip Rivers, whom I liked, but didn't dream he'd be the #2 QB. Next year I plan to do the top 24 QBs being drafted instead of just the starters.

Super Bowl Thoughts

Sorry about not doing a Conference Round summary, I had a trip this past weekend and I didn't have time to write anything up.

ARI @ PIT

Summary: Pittsburgh was supposed to be here, but Arizona certainly wasn't. Arizona's had an explosive, although somewhat 1 dimensional offense throughout most of the regular season. Thanks to the re-installation of Edgerrin James as the primary RB in week 17, the offense has re-found it's balance, and it's allowed for more explosion in the passing game. Also, most importantly, the defense has really stepped up. They're not without playmakers, boasting pass a rushing specialist in Bertrand Berry, a talented DT in Darnell Dockett, a great young LB in Karlos Dansby, a stud safety in Adrian Wilson, and a couple up-and-coming secondary members in Antrel Rolle and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. They're finally playing up to their talent level with inspiration as well. They've held down very good RBs in Michael Turner and a somewhat injured Brian Westbrook. They'll have another good one to stop in Willie Parker during the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh was supposed to be here, really. They sported the top defense this year, and despite the inconsistencies from Big Ben, partly thanks to shoddy pass protection, and the injuries suffered at RB (Parker, Mendenhall), they've been able to post enough points on the board to get it done far more often than not. Big Ben has been mobile enough to make plays when plays weren't there, and with Ward and Miller offering chain-moving consistency while Holmes provided the explosive option down the field, they have good balance with their receiving talent. Despite the RB injuries, guys like Mewelde Moore have stepped up and continued to provide a consistent running game. Now with Parker healthy, he showed he's still the man 2 weeks ago. Forget last week...Baltimore shuts down just about everyone on the ground.

Arizona has a slight advantage with Ken Wisenhunt as their coach. He was Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator from 2004-2006, also spending the 3 previous years as the TE coach. He'll be able to provide first-hand information about the Steelers and what they might plan to do moreso than your average coach. On the other hand, the Steelers will likely be familiar with some of the things Wisenhunt likes to do, although he runs a far different passing-heavy offense with Arizona than he could ever do with Pittsburgh.

Arizona also has an advantage with the fact they have played numerous 3-4 defenses this year. They played the AFC East, which means they faced 3-4 defenses against Miami (31 points), NYJ (35 points), and NE (7 points, but that was in windy snowstorm). They also faced Dallas (30 points). So, they'll be prepared for this style of defense, and having played Philly twice and the Giants once, they're also used to aggressive, blitzing teams. Given the Super Bowl is in Miami, they'll probably be playing in great weather on a great field, which won't help negate their explosive passing attack.

Pittsburgh's very talented defense has their work cut out for them. Warner has a lightning quick release that will help offset some of the blitzing, and he has 2 WRs who are excellent after the catch and can turn short passes into long gains. They also have zero problems going down the field. If they remain committed to running the ball despite the lack of success they'll likely encounter, I think they really have a chance in this game. Vegas already has Pittsburgh favored by 7 points, and on the surface I understand why, but when you consider everything that Arizona has going for them, it's really hard for me to think that Pittsburgh will cover.

Divisional Round Summary

BAL @ TEN

Summary: The Titans had their way with the Ravens defense in the first half, specifically thanks to the speed and versatility of Chris Johnson. Unfortunately for them, a LenDale White fumble stalled their final drive inside the 20 yard line. I could also mention the Kerry Collins INT, but if he had simply taken the sack, which was the only alternative, they would have punted, and the Ravens probably would have started their drive in about the same area. Chris Johnson's ankle injury took him out of the game, and the Titans offense went with him. Without his speed and play-making ability, they slowed to a halt and barely moved the ball in the 2nd half, and the Ravens took advantage, scoring 10 points for a 13-10 victory. I have no doubt in my mind the Titans would have won had Chris Johnson not been hurt.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Chris Johnson. Johnson posted 16 fantasy points in only a half, and his ankle injury kept him from having an even bigger game. Given his team was eliminated, he was an even better choice.

Don't Use: LenDale White. White actually posted solid yardage totals, but only produced 6 fantasy points with the lost fumble. Johnson's injury had a positive impact on White's value, else he would have been completely worthless. Still, he was a bad play in any circumstance.

AZ @ CAR

Summary: The unquestioned shocker of the weekend. Not only did Arizona upset Carolina, but they stomped them. Carolina's game plan was obvious on the first drive...pound the ball down Arizona's throat. However, thanks to a Delhomme fumble deep in Carolina territory on the 2nd drive, Arizona posted a 2nd TD, and went up 14-7. At that point, down only 7, Carolina inexplicably abandoned the running game, and all hell broke loose with Delhomme consistently throwing the ball to the wrong team. 5 INTs later, Carolina was eliminated.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Jake Delhomme. This proves, again, that match ups don't meant everything. Delhomme was a mediocre fantasy play all season long, and he went above and beyond in this one. Horrible.

Don't Use: Anquan Boldin. Since fantasy playoff lineups are often submitted in their entirety before the first game starts, this was a good call as Boldin ended up being inactive for the game.

PHI @ NYG

Summary: Most of what I said came true, as McNabb played solid football despite the bad winds, and the absence of play-makers in the Giants passing game completely sunk New York. However, the game did NOT come down to Westbrook's running ability as he only managed 2 yards a carry, and did nothing inside the red zone. However, the Eagles passing defense was more than enough against the completely overmatched Giants passing attack. Jacobs ran well, but Ward didn't, and the passing game offered zero support. I'm pissed I bet the spread instead of taking the money line on the Eagles.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Brent Celek. He only caught 3 passes, but since 1 was a TD on a great playaction play, he turned in a solid afternoon.

Don't Use: Eli Manning. He was horrible all game long and posted terrible stats.

SD @ PIT

Summary: Simply put, the bye week finally helped one team...Pittsburgh. The story about Big Ben's concussion was overblown, and Parker exhibited fresh legs. With a healthy and balanced attack, Pittsburgh brushed off a slow start and marched all over the field on the Chargers defense. Pittsburgh's D also settled down after a bad first drive and mostly dominated until garbage time. The rough Pittsburgh field and stingy rush defense completely bottled up Sproles, allowing the Pittsburgh D to pin their ears back and come after Rivers all 2nd half.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Vincent Jackson. Jackson, like Celek above, made the most of his receptions by making one a 41 yard TD catch on the first drive. He was mostly absent after that, but unfortunately that seems to be Jackson's mode of operation. He was a nice play this week thanks to the TD, and also being eliminated.

Don't Use: Ben Roethlisberger. He actually posted middle-of-the-road numbers despite non-impressive stats this week, so I can't take credit for this one.


Conclusion: I mostly avoided making a call on the winners, and went 2/4 on bets. I went 3/4 on the Sneaky Plays, and 3/4 on the Don't Uses. A slight improvement on the fantasy calls.

Apology

Wow, my Jake Delhomme sleeper pick was BRUTAL...

Divisional Round Playoff Thoughts

This round is much tougher.

BAL @ TEN

These two teams hooked up once in the regular season, early on, and TEN won a slugfest at Baltimore 13-10. One of several defensive battles this week, but this could be the finest. Baltimore hates when you try to run on them, and that's exactly what the Titans will spend most of the game trying to do. The key to this game is Joe Flacco. Baltimore this year reminds me a lot of the Steelers team that won the Super Bowl in early 2006. Ferocious defense, solid running game, and a rookie QB asked to manage the game and make a play here and there. Flacco isn't quite as mobile as Big Ben, but has a huge arm and mostly limits his mistakes. The problem is that McClain and McGahee aren't nearly what Parker and Bettis were. I'm leaning towards TEN in this one as they have a stronger offensive line, a veteran QB, and a much more dynamic backfield.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Chris Johnson. Most might avoid him this week thanks to the match up, but I think he's good for a big play at some point in this game, maybe two. This is the type of game where the Titans need to pull out all the stops to move the ball, and getting Johnson into space will be essential.

Don't Use: LenDale White. He might score, but he's going to do little to nothing in the yardage department. I expect Chris Johnson to be far more productive with his touches thanks to his versatility.

AZ @ CAR

These two teams hooked up once during the regular season, at Carolina, with the Panthers winning 27-23. Vegas certainly doesn't think the Cardinals have any sort of chance, favoring the Panthers by 10. Honestly, not much has changed since the first match up, except for two changes with the Cardinals. First, we have Boldin's injury, which should limit him. Second, we have the re-emergence of Edgerrin James, which helps balance out the Cardinals offense and should help offset the loss of Boldin somewhat. That being said, Carolina is simply too well balanced for the Cardinals to overcome, but while the Vegas line indicates it'll be somewhat of a blowout, I disagree.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Jake Delhomme. He has the best match up and the best weapons of the 4 mediocre QBs added by the 1st week byes, and therefore should post the best line as long as the Carolina running game doesn't dominate their scoring.

Don't Use: Anquan Boldin. If you didn't use him last round, like me, don't throw him in this round. He is honestly hurting, and while he'll give it a go, I think his job will be more as a decoy and that he will fall far short of playing a full game as if he were healthy.

PHI @ NYG

These two teams have hooked up twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The first time was a 36-31 scoring bananza that the Giants won, and the second was a 20-14 Philly victory during their late season run. Philly is playing as well as they have all season, save a 10-3 stinker loss at Washington in week 16. McNabb is on fire, playing some of the best football of his career at just the right time, and Philly's defense is playing amazing football. Now I don't really like the argument of eliminating a big run while analyzing a RBs performance, but outside of the big 40 yard TD run by Peterson, PHI did an excellent job bottling him up. The Giants running game is on a whole other level with 2 and 3 guys they can rotate in and get great production from, but the Giants passing game is completely void of playmakers, and they really stumbled down the stretch offensively. All that being said, it's going to be very hard for the Eagles to beat the Giants twice in the Meadowlands, and it's going to come down to their ability to run the ball successfully with Westbrook.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Brent Celek. He is now clearly the starting TE for the Eagles, and Philly loves to spread the ball around in the passing game. He's quietly one of the best TE options this week.

Don't Use: Eli Manning. Lack of playmakers, terrible match up. Simple.

SD @ PIT

These two teams hooked up once in the regular season, with the Steelers edging the Chargers 11-10, although it probably should have been 18-10 with the controversy surrounding the defensive TD return off the crazy last minute play. Still, that TD wasn't indicative of how the game was being played. SD's D has turned it on, and Big Ben, while being cleared to play, is still somewhat dealing with the lingers effects of a concussion. SD's swarming pass rush caused all sorts of problems for Peyton Manning, and while Big Ben is undoubtedly more mobile, he has a pretty mediocre offensive line in front of him. LT's absence isn't nearly as big of a story as people are making it out to be, but the rough playing surface of the Pittsburgh field could have an impact on Sproles' ability to cut, which is his entire game. This is shaping up to be another slugfest, and I'm actually leaning towards the Chargers to pull this one out thanks to a superior offense.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Vincent Jackson. With zero catches last week and against one of the top secondaries, he might seem like an easy avoid. However, with Gates continuing to be banged up, Jackson needs to step up, and I feel he will. He'll haul down at least one big play reception this week.

Don't Use: Ben Roethlisberger. He's banged up and will be on the run against a very good pass rush. There's very little upside here.

Browns Hire Eric Mangini As Head Coach

The Cleveland Browns have hired former New England defensive coordinator and New York Jets head coach as their new head coach. Mangini has also hired former Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Ryan as his own defensive coordinator. Rumor also has him looking for west coast offensive minds for his new offensive coordinator.

Fantasy Impact: Until the Browns get a consistent pass rush, their defense will remain mediocre. Adding Shaun Rogers was huge (literally) for them as he's headed to the Pro Bowl, and they give up little to get him from the idiots in Detroit, so he's an excellent building block. It remains to be seen what will happen on the offensive side of the ball, but installing a west coast offense will be good news for Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow as it fits their skills well, although time will tell if Winslow will still be a Brown next season. We already know he'll still be a fuckin' soldja, though. When Quinn stepped in for the ineffective Derek Anderson, the offense was geared more towards the downfield attack that Anderson was better equipped for. Jamal Lewis is a horrible fit for a west coast offense, and given his advancing age, it'd be a shock if he was still relied upon next year as the 300ish carry RB. Expect the Browns to pursue their future at the RB position in the draft.

Saints RB Reggie Bush undergoes microfracture surgery

The New Orleans Saints have announced that Reggie Bush has undergone microfracture surgery on his troublesome left knee. This is one of the most severe knee surgeries out there, and has a lower success percentage than ACL surgery. This is a massive blow to a player who is totally reliant on his cutback ability and long speed.

Fantasy Impact: Reggie Bush has the name appeal and the perceived untapped potential that makes some fantasy owners still drool. If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, especially in PPR leagues where his perceived value is sky high, I would suggest gauging his trade value and dealing him. Bush simply is not going to evolve into an every down back because he cannot run between the tackles, and his durability is in serious question. When Bush first came out on college, I thought his career arc would mirror that of Brian Westbrook, a super scatback who had the size and skills necessary to learn how to run between the tackles. It's now his third season, and there are zero signs that this is going to take place. Pierre Thomas, ironically, is exactly what the Saints thought they were getting in Bush, minus the breakaway speed, and he's proving to be too good to leave off the field. All this being said, Bush now faces a downside of this surgery hampering him in the offseason and into the 2009 season. His value will now sink with the emergence of Pierre Thomas as the Saints have a very capable committee partner. MJD and Marion Barber would be excellent candidates to use Bush to trade for, as MJD is set to see his value explode, and Barber's freak toe injury probably has his owners too down on him.

Wild Card Round Summary

ATL @ ARI

Summary: A slugfest that ended up with Arizona being able to score more, and Ryan looking fairly solid, but more like a rookie QB playing in his first playoff game than the cool veteran he played the part of for most of the year.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Edgerrin James. He posted a decent 8.2 points, but had a goal line carry stolen by Tim Hightower, which ended up making him the worst starting RB to use of the 8 who went this weekend. It also made no sense how the Cardinals only used him for 16 carries when he was obviously running very well...he completed disappeared during the middle of the game.

Don't Use: I didn't list anyone, and all the major players came through. Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, White, and Turner all posted good yardage with at least 1 TD.

IND @ SD

Summary: I messed up here. Indy kept getting buried deep in their own territory at the start of literally every drive, and the game came down to the rushing attacks, of which San Diego was far superior. Chalk this one up to the Chargers punter.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Joseph Addai. SD's defense has turned it up several gears over the end of the regular season, and Addai wasn't overly productive with his touches, but 13.2 fantasy points got it done.

Don't Use: LaDainian Tomlinson. A TD gave him a respectable 8.5 points, but he left hurt after only 5 carries while Sproles showed what LT could have done had he been healthy.

BAL @ MIA

Summary: Baltimore took care of business with a truly dominating defensive performance.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: LeRon McClain. A solid 11.5 point day on 19 carries, and it was almost much better. Flacco missed him open in the flat on the last drive on a playaction pass that would have been his 2nd TD.

Don't Use: Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams. Brown actually posted 12.2 points, which was solid. Surprisingly enough, he was on the field far more often despite splitting carries with Ricky during the 2nd half of the season.

PHI @ MIN

Summary: Minnesota made this a bit closer than it should have been, but Philly took care of business in the end, making nice halftime adjustments to completely shut down the Minnesota offense in the 2nd half.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Visanthe Shiancoe. 7 yards? I suck.

Don't Use: Tavaris Jackson. 164 yards and a pick. He sucked.


Conclusion: 3/4 on the Summaries, 2/4 on the Sneaky Plays, and 3/4 on the Don't Uses. Solid, but could be better. I'll do the same again this week.

Wild Card Round Playoff Thoughts

ATL @ ARI

Matt Ryan has had an expectation-breaking season all year long, and along with Michael Turner, he has helped take a franchise on the brink of disarray to a playoff spot. Their offense has been good all year long, but the same cannot be said about their defense. Arizona is very comfortable at home, gets Anquan Boldin back, and they have re-found a successful running game with Edgerrin James in week 17. I think Arizona will simply out-score Atlanta at home. There's a chance Ryan exceeds expectations once more and wins his first playoff game on the road, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Edgerrin James. He's going to carry the load this week, Atlanta is poor at stopping the run, and Arizona will score plenty. He's a solid bet for 100 total yards, and might kick in a TD.

Don't Use: I'm tempted to list Boldin here as he hasn't looked right since week 12, but there's going to be a lot of scoring and Boldin would have to be really hurt not to get in on some of it.

IND @ SD

Both teams are on a roll, with Indy winning their last 9, and SD winning their last 4. 3 of SD's 4 wins, however, were against weak divisional opposition in KC, OAK, and DEN. With Tomlinson suffering another injury and Indy being solid against the pass, I think IND breaks their losing streak against the Chargers and moves onto the next round.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Joseph Addai. He has burned owners all year long, but Indy will move the ball just fine on the road against SD, and Addai looked healthy in week 17. It's clear that Indy will use him as the lead RB when he's healthy, and we all know what Addai can do.

Don't Use: LaDainian Tomlinson. A partially detached groin tendon? It's a real shame because LT looked like the LT of old in week 17 prior to this injury. There's a lot of good RBs to use in the first round, and LT simply isn't worth the risk.

BAL @ MIA

I'm pretty sure nobody expected either of these teams to be here, but thanks to surprising QB play from the resurgent Chad Pennington and the impressive rookie Joe Flacco, both teams are ready to lock horns in round 1. Simply put, I think the dominant Baltimore defense takes care of business against a very non-explosive Miami offense, and they score enough to win.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: LeRon McClain. For those not paying attention, McClain has received 20+ carries in 5 straight games, churning out a very respectable fantasy numbers over that time frame. Miami started out great against the run, but went south in a hurry.

Don't Use: Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams. This is an obvious choice as they are splitting carries, and Baltimore does not allow you to run on them.

PHI @ MIN

I'm also pretty sure nobody expected PHI to be here, especially after the embarassing tie against Cincy followed by Baltimore beating the shit out of them and the benching of McNabb in that game. Since that benching, however, McNabb has regained his form among the better QBs in the NFL and he looked like the old McNabb while making plays while moving the pocket. PHI's defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is one of the best in the business, so I fully expect the old Tavaris Jackson to resurface against the vicious PHI pass rush and the Eagles to take this game without much of a problem.

Sneaky Fantasy Play: Visanthe Shiancoe. Jackson certainly isn't going to have time to look downfield for Berrian, so I expect a workman type day from Shiancoe in a week that features numerous weak TE options outside the Gates/Clark match up.

Don't Use: Tavaris Jackson. He ended the season on a great note, and might have you thinking sneaky play, but he is not cut out for handling the massive blitzing that he is sure to face in this game.

Ugh

Between work, a trip to Vegas, and the hectic Christmas season, I was unable to keep the injuries up to date for the final 2 weeks, so I apologize once again for doing that. Luckily there wasn't dick to pick up on the waiver wire, so I didn't miss anything there.

I do plan on going back through my preseason draft guide, one position (and player) at a time, and seeing how my analysis panned out. I'll also put together some lessons learned and a few final thoughts on the season. I'm on PTO from work and will be avoiding the computer as much as possible through the end of this week, but I should do my season wrap-up over the next 2 weeks or so.

Week 14 Walking Wounded

I apologize for the late posting this week, but I'm swamped at work. There weren't any good waiver candidates this week as I already told you about Tashard Choice last week. There also weren't any injury problems in the Thursday night game, I didn't miss telling you guys anything.

QB:

Matt Schaub - Schaub will start in week 14, but has a very tough match up against GB.

Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck has suffered a setback with his back and is listed as doubtful for week 14. Seneca Wallace will start, and Hasselbeck can be kicked to the waivers so you have a backup QB secured.

Trent Edwards - Edwards will not start in week 14, and he might be the emergency QB at best. JP Losman will fill in, and hopefully hook up with Evans for a patented bomb or five.

Derek Anderson - Anderson, filling in for Quinn, suffered a torn MCL and was placed on IR, ending his horrible 2008 season.

RB:

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook has missed a few practices this week, but I still fully expect him
to play. Philly is probably just giving him as much time off as possible after his Thursday night explosion last week, and given all the injuries he's dealing with at this point.

Marion Barber - Barber suffered a dislocated toe last week, and he's questionable at best to play this week. Given he's hobbled by his injury and facing the #1 run defense in football, you have to sit him. Tashard Choice will start if Barber can't go, and he isn't a bad option, but I wouldn't use him.

Clinton Portis - Portis now has an injury to every part of his body. He's expected to start in week 14, but since he plays on Sunday night, he's not worth waiting for given the match up against Baltimore. Betts would start in his place, but isn't much of an option either. Much like Barber, there's just very little upside starting a hurting RB against a top notch run defense.

Steven Jackson - Jackson returned in week 14 and ran well against a tough run defense. He's been limited a bit this week in practice, but should be in for a full workload in week 14. Start him.

Reggie Bush - Bush threw up a stinker, and unfortunately he was clearly limited in his return. He says he feels much better this week than any previous week, and he'll start in week 14.

Willie Parker - Parker's ongoing injury saga continues, but he should be all systems go in week 14. Given the PIT short yardage conundrum, he might not score, but Dallas can be run on.

Selvin Young - Young should return in week 14, but only as a situation RB behind new starter Peyton Hillis.

WR:

Plaxico Burress - Burress finally did something productive for his team by shooting himself. He's done for the year, and hopefully heading to prison. Fucking idiot.

Matt Jones - Jones has already been practicing this week, so he won't be suspended. He'll start in week 14.

TE:

Kellen Winslow - Winslow is out in week 14 with an ankle injury. One has to wonder about the severity and whether they'll just shut him down with nothing going right for them. Winslow is a self-proclaimed soldja, though, so who knows.

D:

Minnesota - Normally one missing player doesn't make a huge difference, but if the Williams Wall have their suspensions upheld, you might want to think twice about starting the Vikings, even against Detroit. I probably still would, but their run D would take a massive hit.

Week 13 Injury Updates

All players have been updated for week 13. The biggest news is Plaxico Burress being declared out. Willie Parker will play, and Brandon Jacobs is expected to play, but Jacobs is more of a game time decision.

Eddie Royal is questionable in a bit of a surprise, but is expected to play. Keep an eye on him as he's a game time decision in a late Sunday game.

Browns QB Brady Quinn Done For The Year

The Cleveland Browns will place QB Brady Quinn on IR with a broken right index finger.

This is horrible news for the Browns as they really could have used the rest of the season to evaluate what exactly they have in Brady Quinn. If anything, it seemed obvious to me that the team responded to him better as soon as he took the field. You need to throw out last weekend's game as Quinn was obviously playing hurt.

Fantasy Impact: Drop Quinn, and Derek Anderson becomes a very low level QB2. Anderson managed to suck it up despite solid talent around him in the first half of the season, and his schedule down the stretch (IND, TEN, PHI the next 3 weeks) is horrible. I'd stay away, and I'd rather have someone like Collins who is far less likely to implode should your QB1 go down.

This is bad news for Winslow and Edwards as Quinn used Winslow immediately, and he was starting to use Edwards more too. Expect them to both be more inconsistent.

Week 13 Waiver Wire Possibilities

There really isn't anyone emerging at this point that I haven't covered so far. Two guys worth nothing are Tashard Choice and Dominik Hixon. With Felix Jones out for the season, Choice becomes Marion Barber's handcuff, and while he isn't nearly as talented as Barber, he'd be the undisputed starter for a team that can score. Hixon is the main backup for Plaxico Burress, who again can't stay healthy. He's not a bad stash in case Burress misses some games. Also worth noting is Dominic Rhodes. With Addai healthy, there should be no Addai owner who doesn't have Rhodes stashed. He will have plenty of fantasy value should Addai get hurt again.

Week 13 Walking Wounded

QB:

Donovan McNabb - No injury, but McNabb was inexplicably benched in week 12 for the 2nd half. This is probably the worst move of Andy Reid's career as he let a very winnable game go by switching to a clearly over-matched rookie in Kevin Kolb who clearly was not ready for NFL action. On the road against Baltimore and you bench your franchise QB after a bad past 6 quarters or so? They deserved to be killed. McNabb will start in week 13, and I would still use him if you have been. McNabb will bounce back...he always does. *edit* McNabb lit up the Cardinals on Thursday Night, so hopefully you used him!

Matt Schaub - Schaub has a torn MCL, and he is out in week 13. There is growing concern that he'll be placed on IR, so dump him if you need another QB immediately. *edit* Out of nowhere, Schaub has been taking practice reps and has a chance to play on Monday Night Football. If you have Rosenfels and Schaub is available, grab him immediately.

Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck again looked very rusty, but he seems fine health-wise now. Only use him if you're desparate. *edit* Hasselbeck looked better on Thursday, and he could be an option against the right team moving forward.

Brady Quinn - Quinn has a fractured bone in his right index finger, and it obviously impacted his performance last weekend. Not that you should be starting Quinn anyways, but he's not to be trusted until he proves he's healthy. *edit* Quinn was placed on IR, ending his season.

Marc Bulger - Bulger got concussed again in week 12, and his status for week 13 is iffy, much like the decisions he makes on the field these days. He shouldn't be owned in 12 team/1 QB leagues. *edit* Bulger will start in week 13, but not for your fantasy team. I hope.

RB:

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook continues to battle ankle and knee injuries that have de-railed his season. Given the knee injury that Correll Buckhlater suffered, and his extensive usage in week 12, expect Westbrook to get the short practice week off and be ready on Thursday night. *edit* Westbrook is back in the good graces of his owners with a huge Thursday night game. He's fine moving forward.

Steven Jackson - Jackson's week 13 status is unclear, but there's some optimism in St. Louis that he'll have a shot at returning this week. Keep an eye on his practice schedule. *edit* Jackson did not put in a full practice, but did put in limited practices all week long. The prevailing thought is that he'll play. He has a tough match up against Miami and isn't 100% yet, so be careful using him depending on your options.

Reggie Bush - Bush still hasn't returned, and there's no question in my mind that Bush simply isn't much of a football player unless he's 100%. He's not tough. He seems likely to return this week, but who knows at this point. Keep an eye on his practice schedule. *edit* Bush is listed as questionable, but is expected to go. I'd use him.

Willie Parker - Parker has yet again aggravated his knee injury and is iffy to play in week 13. Owners know the drill....have Mewelde Moore on standby and, at this point with Moore's performance and superior receiving ability, hope Parker sits out until 100%. *edit* Parker put in 2 full practices and appears to be ready in week 13, so use him if you have him.

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs wasn't declared out until right before the game, which violated the trust we put into the "probable" tag. Jacobs himself seemed to indicate he wasn't that close to playing last week. Keep Ward around and monitor his practice schedule. *edit* Jacobs is listed as questionable, but is expected to start. Keep an eye on the game day inactives.

Jonathan Stewart - Stewart was in a walking boot again after Sunday's game, but avoided questions about his ankle/foot/toe. As he proved last week, he's still not ready to consistent contribute with his carries. *edit* Stewart is fine and will play in week 13, but he's not a RB2 option with DeAngelo Williams the clear feature RB.

Selvin Young - Young has a good chance to return in week 13, but that hardly makes him a recommended fantasy play. He'll likely return to the same 10 carry or so role that he held before getting injured. *edit* Young is questionable and hardly worth thinking about this week.

Ahman Green - Green suffered yet another knee injury and has been placed on IR. He is done for the season.

WR:

Plaxico Burress - I apologize for missing him last week. Burress continues to have problems with his hamstring and will be iffy to play in week 13. Keep an eye on him, but you should know better than to rely on him at this point anyways. *edit* Burress is out in week 13. Hixon will start in his place, but has a tough match up. He could be used as a WR3 depending on your options.

Santonio Holmes - Holmes suffered a concussion in week 12, but appears ready to roll in week 13. We'll know for sure later this week. *edit* Holmes will start in week 13, and hopefully he can continue the roll he was on in week 12.

Matt Jones - Jones played and appeared healthy in week 12, but he maintains his week-to-week status thanks to the looming suspension. He seems likely to play in week 13 from all accounts, however. *edit* Jones will start in week 13.

Greg Camarillo - Camarillo was surprisingly an effective possession receiver for the Dolphins this season, but unfortunately this underdog story comes to an end as he tore his ACL in week 12 and is done for the season.

TE:

None

Sunday Morning Injury Update

I have updated all injuries to the best of my knowledge.

Brian Westbrook is active, but do not start him. His role today is unknown, his match up against Baltimore is brutal, and he's far from 100%.

Reggie Bush is out for Monday Night. Pierre Thomas is a solid RB2 play.

Brandon Jacobs, after positive news all week, has been declared inactive in a complete surprise to everyone. Get him out of your lineups ASAP if possible, and Derrick Ward is a decent RB2.

Thursday Night Recap

Let see how I did.

1) Chad Johnson has been deactivated for this game for supposedly sleeping through a team meeting. Remove him from your lineup immediately...not that he should be there anyways.

- This was just news.

2) Start Willie Parker. Not only are the Bengals barely average while allowing 4.2 YPC, but I expect the Steelers to take an early lead and blast the Bengals all game with the rushing attack.

- Blah, although the re-injury of his knee pre-matured ended his night. Cincy loaded up to stop the run, and Pittsburgh did not do a good job adjusting their running calls, instead stubbornly pounding it up the middle despite not having any success doing such. Moore started having success running the ball in the 2nd half as the passing game starting opening up rushing lanes, and I'm sure Parker would have been the beneficiary of that if he had stayed healthy. He had a chance to score a TD on a goal line carry in the first half, but he got stone-walled.

3) Start Santonio Holmes. More of a stupid hunch than anything else. I think the Steelers will unleash at least one big play-action play to Holmes tonight, and I expect a pretty solid fantasy line from him.

- Pretty solid line, and it would have been even nicer had he not be knocked the fuck out on one of Big Ben's patented hospital balls. The concussion ended his night early, and he might not play next week depending on the severity.

4) Bench all Bengals, except maybe Housh. They will be missing both of their starting offensive tackles, and the Steelers are #1 in the NFL against both the pass and the run. Fitzpatrick is going to be running for his life, Benson will have nowhere to run, and while TJ might seem like a decent play, I'd only use him as a WR3 at the very most. Someone will have to catch the ball with Chad Johnson out, but it's going to make it easier for the Steelers D to key in on him.

- All Bengals looked like crap last night, Housh included.

5) Start the Steelers D. I fear for Fitzpatrick's well being this evening.

- I think everyone was disappointed with the 7 points the PIT D put up in normal Yahoo scoring. Cincy ran a close-to-the-vest offensive scheme very unlikely to turn the ball over, get sacked, or pick up many yards, and it worked on all fronts. Unfortunately, the dominant PIT D last night didn't show up in the fantasy stat sheet, unless you get points for yards allowed.

6) Bet the Steelers. The line is at 11, but this is shaping up to be one ugly game that heavily favors the Steelers. A 31-3 type score would not surprise me at all.

- Nice. I doubled my balance last night with this call, although it did take a final PIT TD to get there. PIT really came out flat in the 1st quarter, and it almost cost us the spread. I have to thank Glenn Holt for this one, as his momentum-killing drop on Cincy's second drive completely drained the life out of their offense until a late 4th quarter drive that got them a FG.

Thursday Night Football: Steelers Vs. Bengals

Thoughts:

--> 1) Chad Johnson has been deactivated for this game for supposedly sleeping through a team meeting. Remove him from your lineup immediately...not that he should be there anyways.

2) Start Willie Parker. Not only are the Bengals barely average while allowing 4.2 YPC, but I expect the Steelers to take an early lead and blast the Bengals all game with the rushing attack.

3) Start Santonio Holmes. More of a stupid hunch than anything else. I think the Steelers will unleash at least one big play-action play to Holmes tonight, and I expect a pretty solid fantasy line from him.

4) Bench all Bengals, except maybe Housh. They will be missing both of their starting offensive tackles, and the Steelers are #1 in the NFL against both the pass and the run. Fitzpatrick is going to be running for his life, Benson will have nowhere to run, and while TJ might seem like a decent play, I'd only use him as a WR3 at the very most. Someone will have to catch the ball with Chad Johnson out, but it's going to make it easier for the Steelers D to key in on him.

5) Start the Steelers D. I fear for Fitzpatrick's well being this evening.

6) Bet the Steelers. The line is at 11, but this is shaping up to be one ugly game that heavily favors the Steelers. A 31-3 type score would not surprise me at all.

Week 12 Waiver Wire Possibilities

QB:

There really isn't anybody worth picking up that I haven't mentioned before. I only mention players once in the week they should be picked up, or at least that's how I've been writing these articles. Late bloomers such as Tyler Thigpen, fairly reliable QB2s such as Shaun Hill, and recovered QBs such as Matt Hasselbeck should all be owned.

RB:

Warrick Dunn - Dunn might have been cut after his neck stinger a couple weeks ago, but with Earnest Graham's season-ending ankle injury, Dunn becomes a featured RB once again. He posted mediocre rushing stats last week, but that's because he faced the monstrous MIN run D. He padded his stats with an excellent receiving line, and he gets the Lions in week 12. He's the top add this week.

Antonio Pittman - Pittman has emerged as the clear top option in the STL backfield with Steven Jackson injured, and his two non-injured starts in weeks 8 and 11 have produced solid rushing numbers. This team is going to struggle to score, and the loss of Pace hurts the line, but Pittman can be a RB2 in the right match up.

Pierre Thomas - He's more of an add for Bush owners, and he's not going to be worth using if Bush returns in week 12. Thomas took McAllister's production in week 11 by looking far better and producing a great overall game. Non-Bush owners cannot rely on him this week, but he would be worth a RB2 start if Bush fails to suit up again.

Ahmad Bradshaw - Another speculative add here. Should Jacobs miss week 12, Bradshaw will split work with Derrick Ward. Ward seems highly likely to take the goal line carries, but Bradshaw could be a lower RB2 if he's evenly splitting time. He's not a great option since he's dependent on Jacobs missing week 12, but he's an interesting stash.

WR:

Justin Gage - Where the hell did that come from? Collins has come alive the past two weeks as opposing defenses are looking to hold down the potent TEN rushing attack, but don't expect Collins to keep tossing multiple TDs. This was a fluke week, and Brandon Jones remains the better bet over the rest of the season.

TE:

Dustin Keller - Simply put, I was dead wrong about Keller last week. Instead of going back into hibernation, Keller exploded again for 8 catches, 87 yards, and a TD that he dropped in the end zone. With Coles and Cotchery demanding outside attention and no Jets WR claiming the middle of the field, Keller has responded by assuming that role. Pick him up if he's still there, and he's worth starting as a lower level TE1 at this point. This week's match up against TEN is very rough, so keep expectations in check.

Ben Watson - Watson exploded with an 8 catch performance in week 12 as Matt Cassel exploded for 400 passing yards. Now his week 12 opponent, the Jets, are a great run D, and the Patriots altered their gameplan to go pass heavy as it presented them their best chance for success. Watson undoubtedly has the talent to put up TE1 production, but his role in the offense varies by week and by game plan. You could stash him, but making him your weekly option would be a desparate move.