Let's take a look at who we should be picking up this week:
QB:
Michael Vick - There's just no way Kevin Kolb will be ready this week. He's not scheduled to practice until Friday at the earliest, and I don't see any reason the Eagles would rush him back to face the Lions. Vick will get at least one start, but as Reid has clearly stated, Kolb is his starter despite Vick's impressive 2nd half. Vick will be an exciting QB1 this week against the Lions, so if you're looking for a 1 week starter, he's your guy. He's also worth hanging onto in case Kolb comes back and falters again. Vick is ready to be a starting QB again in the NFL. He's worth using a waiver claim, but only if you're going to use him this week.
Sam Bradford - Bradford had a solid debut despite the interceptions, and it seems clear that the Rams are willing to let him air it out when necessary, at least for now. If you have someone like Matt Moore on your bench, I think Bradford offers more upside. He's nothing more than a backup at this stage, but he could prove to be useful on a bye week.
RB:
Brandon Jackson - Jackson is the no brainer, #1 waiver claim this week. Even if you don't need a RB, use your #1 claim on him. He's now the every down RB for the Packers, and while he might not get goal line carries as FB John Kuhn is rumored to be the top option for that role, Jackson is going to rack up total yardage and post some scores. He's immediately an every week RB2.
Peyton Hillis - Hillis is the lead RB for the Browns, surprisingly ahead of Jerome Harrison. They're going to split carries pretty much down the middle, but Hillis is the goal line RB, and he can catch passes as well. He's not an exciting pickup, but he can be a decent bye week fill-in.
Fred Taylor - With Maroney gone, the Patriots have successfully increased the average age of the RBs into somewhere near the social security range. All jokes aside, Taylor has even more job security now, and he's clearly the lead back of this offense. He's 34 and injury-prone, but he's a reasonable end-of-the-roster stash and he can be an emergency bye week fill-in during the right matchup.
WR:
Mark Clayton - Clayton emerged as the go-to WR for Bradford and the Rams immediately in week 1, so he's well worth adding for WR depth. Bradford isn't going to throw 50+ times each week, but Laurent Robinson hasn't flashed in his return from a torn ACL, and Danny Amendola is limited in talent. Clayton has a real chance to be this team's top receiver. He's always had the talent, but consistency has eluded him thus far.
Mike Williams (SEA) - Williams legitimately looked good in week 1. He's not going to blow the top off of a defense with his speed, but he flashed solid after-the-catch ability, and much like Clayton above, he doesn't have a lot of talent to compete with for looks. Deion Branch just isn't very good, and Deon Butler isn't starting yet. He's a huge target and could be a great red zone option for the Seahawks. He's good WR depth.
TE:
Tony Scheffler - I drafted him as my TE2 in both of my 12 team/16 roster spot leagues, but I don't think he's owned in a lot of leagues. He's not going to light up the scoreboard, but he's going to consistent gain yardage as essentially a slot receiver in the Detroit offense. He has the speed to make big plays as well. Stafford going out will hurt his big play ability, but he's going to rack up receptions and could be the 2nd leading receiver on the team this season. He's a great TE2.
Marcedes Lewis - I have to list him here as he'll be popular after a 2 TD week 1, but I wouldn't bother. Until I see Lewis used consistently outside of the red zone, he's just not going to be a consistent fantasy factor.
Jermaine Gresham - Gresham is a player. This guy a big-time talent as a receiver, but his upside is limited by two target hounds named Ochocinco and Owens. He's a solid TE2 worth stashing to see what happens this season, but expect inconsistency.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Monday, September 13, 2010
Week 1 Thoughts
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings - Drew Brees started off on fire, but he didn't do much after the first week. No worries here, especially since Meachem and Henderson both dropped big catches in the first half that killed drives. Pierre Thomas put up a goose egg in the first half, but then took over the game in the 2nd half with 80ish total yards, and most importantly, a goal line score. If he maintains goal line duties all season, and there's no reason to think otherwise while he's healthy, then he's going to flirt with RB1 value. He'll score plenty, and while he won't receive workhorse touches, he'll get enough. All of the receivers had down weeks thanks to the low passing totals, but all will be fine. Favre looked very rusty, and he cost his team this game thanks to his selfish offseason bullshit. He was completely out of a sync with a passing game missing it's top play maker in Sidney Rice. It might take a couple weeks to figure out how they're going to move the ball in the air, although Shiancoe looked very good. If he can rack up some yards this season, he could be a nice fantasy TE this season. Percy Harvin owners need to stay patient.
Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans - Darren McFadden can play football, apparently. After 2 lost seasons marred by ineffective play and constant injuries, McFadden racked up a huge game, and he's going to bury Michael Bush if he can stay healthy. Tennessee has a pretty tough defense, so this was an impressive performance. Let's see if he can do it again. Jason Campbell is going to have to check down to McFadden and Miller a lot this year. CJ2K is in prime form already, and Vince Young looked good in his limited opportunities. Kenny Britt is an after thought and only worth an end-of-the roster stash currently.
Carolina vs. NY Giants - Matt Moore looked awful after a rough preseason, so there's cause for concern here. It remains to be seen if he'll start in week 2 thanks to a concussion, but if he's healthy, they're not going to make a switch yet. Steve Smith just needs competent QB play to be a fantasy asset, so let's hope he finds it. DeAngelo Williams dominated the backfield after another lost offseason by Stewart, which personally surprised me. Stewart has never seemed to miss a beat after lost offseasons, but this one cost him, at least for one week. Expect them to get closer to a split as the season moves along.
Indianapolis vs. Houston - Hello Arian Foster! Foster turned in a monster week 1, and boy did he look like a keeper with how his running style fits this offense. He's a keeper, but let's hope Houston doesn't plan on running him this much all season or he'll break down when we need him most. No worries about the passing game...Houston adjusted to control the clock. Peyton was awesome, but his offensive line is a serious concern. It won't do much for his fantasy value as he'll throw plenty, but it'd be nice for them to get their starters healthy.
Denver vs. Jacksonville - One of the most boring games in week 1. MJD handled a big workload just fine, so his knee is a non-issue moving forward. He was productive, but this offense is going to struggle, especially if nobody steps up opposite Mike Sims-Walker and allows him to be doubled relentlessly. Lewis will score some TDs, but he's going to need more catches away from the red zone to be a reliable fantasy option. Kyle Orton was efficient as usual, and Eddie Royal was used extensively in the slot. Royal has a chance to be the most reliable WR on this team as Gaffney will start having to fight for snaps once the rookies Thomas and Decker get healthy and acquainted with the offense.
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh - Mendenhall saved his owners with a 50 yard game-winning TD in OT, but he was mostly bottled up all game. This is a source of concern as Pittsburgh already lost it's RT Willie Colon for the year, and now Max Starks is out a month. He's going to have a tough road ahead until Big Ben gets back. The PIT WRs are dicey fantasy starts until then as well. No worries on the Atlanta offense; they faced an elite defense. Roddy White was a target monster, and expect that to continue all season.
Miami vs. Buffalo - Another snore-fest. Ronnie Brown looks healthy, so treat him as a solid RB2. Henne looked pretty shaky, but he looked Marshall's way often. If you own Marshall, hope he can actually hang onto the big plays he'll receive here. Buffalo is simply an entire mess, and I have a feeling that I messed up going after Lee Evans again. I'll learn one of these days. Maybe.
Detroit vs. Chicago - Stafford got hurt again, but he didn't look that great prior to the injury. The bad news is that he'll be out for a number of weeks, and Shaun Hill is a pretty big downgrade at QB. The good news is that once Hill got in the game, he looked Calvin's way quite often. Hopefully volume will help make up for the lack of big plays with Stafford out. Best is a true feature back getting goal line carries, but he got very little room to run. Against a healthy Chicago defense, that wasn't a big surprise. Better days should be ahead. Cutler put up a huge stat-line, and you can thank Mike Martz for that. He didn't have much time, and while some panic is necessary, you can't just look at the "Lions" and assume the worst as their defensive line is much improved. He was also on the wrong page with his receiver on numerous occasions, and hopefully that will be rectified with time. Forte was a monster in the passing game, and it is clear that he's healthy again. He's a good RB2.
Cincinnati vs. New England - Brady looked great, and he would have had a huge game had it not gotten out of hand so fast. Welker looks healthy, and he was targeted plenty. This offense will be very good this year, but it's clear the entire backfield can be ignored. Palmer had a huge stat line, but don't be fooled into thinking Palmer is back to pre-elbow injury form. He racked up huge numbers during blow out time when he was throwing on every down, but he simply doesn't have that same arm strength anymore. Owens was also the preferred target before garbage time when Palmer locked onto Ochocinco. I'm not complete ruling out somewhat of a Palmer revival, but I still don't think he's gonna be QB1 material this year. We'll see. Benson was mostly taken out of the game thanks to the score, but Bernard Scott did more with less touches. Scott is a play maker and might force his way into a bigger piece of the pie.
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay - Peyton Hillis surprisingly started, and then he also dominated short yardage and goal line work. James Harrison can't be started as he's right back into a time share. Mike Williams looked very good and worth the preseason hype. Once Freeman gets over his thumb injury, Williams will be a fantasy asset. Cadillac Williams looked solid, but he simply doesn't have his speed anymore. Kareem Huggins surprisingly didn't receive a single carry as Earnest Graham was the 2nd RB. If that happens again, you should consider dropping Huggins and finding another sleeper.
San Francisco vs. Seattle - Alex Smith looked like a disaster, although his top WR Michael Crabtree seemed rather disinterested in helping him out, or even being on the football field. I'm starting to get a feeling that Smith is going to be an issue for this offense. Gore got nothing going, but SF simply wasn't ready to play this game. Mike Williams is worth owning from Seattle, and he does indeed look revived. The rest of the offense is worth ignoring for now. Keep the name Deon Butler in the back of your mind in case he wins a job.
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb looked awful being a disgusting offensive line, and then a concussion ended his day and might keep him out for a couple weeks. Michael Vick is most definitely back, and given the shape of Philly's line, he honestly makes better sense as the starting QB. Reid is standing behind Kolb for now, but if Kolb is out for a couple weeks and Vick could play his way into the starting job whether Reid wants to admit it for now. Leonard Weaver suffered a gruesome knee injury and is out for the season, so McCoy could pick up some red zone touches now. He's got a chance to exceed my expectations. Ryan Grant suffered an ankle injury, and he might be out at least a week. The passing attack wasn't as explosive as they were in the preseason, but Philly is a really tough matchup. Finely faced a lot of physicality, but expect GB to adjust and get him open more often. Explosive days are ahead.
Arizona vs. St. Louis - Derek Anderson looked exactly as advertised, and I can't imagine him lasting the season as the starter. Fitzgerald's knee flared up, and it's possible he's in for a slow start. Hopefully he'll get enough TDs to help offset the inevitable drop in yardage he'll suffer from this season. Tim Hightower started for the injured Beanie Wells, and Hightower looked decent, but fumbled twice and will lose feature back duties to Wells once he returns. Bradford looked pretty good for St. Louis despite the interceptions, and he was allowed to throw an awful lot. He'll have some good days and some bad days. Mark Clayton was his favorite receiver and might be the best WR on this team this year. Steven Jackson was productive with his touches and looked healthy. He should be a reliable low-end RB1 this year.
Dallas vs. Washington - This game was a sloppy mess as the defenses dominated. Dallas attempted to offset the offensive line injuries with a lot of short passing, but it bogged down the offense and hurt their ability to move the football. Romo will have better days ahead, and Miles Austin was a monster. He should be a great WR1 this season. Dez Bryant is so much better than Roy Williams already that it's ridiculous. He'll be starting very, very soon. Marion Barber looked healthy and explosive again, but a lack of touches will hurt his value. Still, he should be a solid RB3 this year. Felix Jones saw similar touches, but he's going to need to hit on big plays in order to have fantasy value. He also is nothing more than a RB3. McNabb's ankle looked healthy, and he'll need his mobility to offset his still-gelling line. The Skins badly need another WR as Moss and Cooley are their only capable receivers. Expect lots of targets for them this season, and they should really consider getting Davis more involved. It's clear Davis is not a threat to Cooley, however. Portis got his touches, but he's not explosive at all anymore. He's a low upside RB3.
Baltimore vs. NY Jets - As expected, this was a defensive slugfest, and the only player who posted good stats was Boldin. He's probably not going to play 16 game again, but he looked great and already showed great chemistry with Flacco. Heap also had a big game, but he's nothing more than a TE2 with Mason and TJ Housh also demanding targets. Ray Rice had a rough day, but got plenty of touches. No worries here, but this game again reminded everyone that McGahee is the goal line back. Shonn Greene had a nightmare first game, and his owners should be in full panic mode. He didn't just struggle against a mighty run defense, he flat out played horrible with 2 fumbles and a big dropped pass. LT might see more touches for the immediate future as he looked very good. The Jets passing game can be completely ignore until Sanchez shows a willingness to look downfield.
San Diego vs. Kansas City - The Bolts offense walked into an unexpected buzzsaw in KC and looked pretty lost most of the night. Mathews looked pretty solid, but he was stripped for a fumble in the first half. The announcers brought up a great point that often times rookie RBs lose their "swagger" after an early fumble, so hopefully Mathews can shake it off. Defenses should completely blanket Gates because Rivers just doesn't look comfortable throwing to anyone else yet. Todd Haley is an asshole. Thomas Jones played for 2 series and then the first carry of the 3rd series, but then Charles came in and ran for a first down and then a 56 yard TD. The next series? Thomas Jones was back out there again for the first play, and McCluster even got a carry. If this is how he's going to use Charles, then you can't start him until he's willing to consistently put his best players on the field. Charles obviously cannot sustain fantasy numbers without touches. The KC offensive line cannot pass protect, and it's dragging down the entire passing game. I'm really pissed I screwed myself into taking Bowe again this year.
Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans - Darren McFadden can play football, apparently. After 2 lost seasons marred by ineffective play and constant injuries, McFadden racked up a huge game, and he's going to bury Michael Bush if he can stay healthy. Tennessee has a pretty tough defense, so this was an impressive performance. Let's see if he can do it again. Jason Campbell is going to have to check down to McFadden and Miller a lot this year. CJ2K is in prime form already, and Vince Young looked good in his limited opportunities. Kenny Britt is an after thought and only worth an end-of-the roster stash currently.
Carolina vs. NY Giants - Matt Moore looked awful after a rough preseason, so there's cause for concern here. It remains to be seen if he'll start in week 2 thanks to a concussion, but if he's healthy, they're not going to make a switch yet. Steve Smith just needs competent QB play to be a fantasy asset, so let's hope he finds it. DeAngelo Williams dominated the backfield after another lost offseason by Stewart, which personally surprised me. Stewart has never seemed to miss a beat after lost offseasons, but this one cost him, at least for one week. Expect them to get closer to a split as the season moves along.
Indianapolis vs. Houston - Hello Arian Foster! Foster turned in a monster week 1, and boy did he look like a keeper with how his running style fits this offense. He's a keeper, but let's hope Houston doesn't plan on running him this much all season or he'll break down when we need him most. No worries about the passing game...Houston adjusted to control the clock. Peyton was awesome, but his offensive line is a serious concern. It won't do much for his fantasy value as he'll throw plenty, but it'd be nice for them to get their starters healthy.
Denver vs. Jacksonville - One of the most boring games in week 1. MJD handled a big workload just fine, so his knee is a non-issue moving forward. He was productive, but this offense is going to struggle, especially if nobody steps up opposite Mike Sims-Walker and allows him to be doubled relentlessly. Lewis will score some TDs, but he's going to need more catches away from the red zone to be a reliable fantasy option. Kyle Orton was efficient as usual, and Eddie Royal was used extensively in the slot. Royal has a chance to be the most reliable WR on this team as Gaffney will start having to fight for snaps once the rookies Thomas and Decker get healthy and acquainted with the offense.
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh - Mendenhall saved his owners with a 50 yard game-winning TD in OT, but he was mostly bottled up all game. This is a source of concern as Pittsburgh already lost it's RT Willie Colon for the year, and now Max Starks is out a month. He's going to have a tough road ahead until Big Ben gets back. The PIT WRs are dicey fantasy starts until then as well. No worries on the Atlanta offense; they faced an elite defense. Roddy White was a target monster, and expect that to continue all season.
Miami vs. Buffalo - Another snore-fest. Ronnie Brown looks healthy, so treat him as a solid RB2. Henne looked pretty shaky, but he looked Marshall's way often. If you own Marshall, hope he can actually hang onto the big plays he'll receive here. Buffalo is simply an entire mess, and I have a feeling that I messed up going after Lee Evans again. I'll learn one of these days. Maybe.
Detroit vs. Chicago - Stafford got hurt again, but he didn't look that great prior to the injury. The bad news is that he'll be out for a number of weeks, and Shaun Hill is a pretty big downgrade at QB. The good news is that once Hill got in the game, he looked Calvin's way quite often. Hopefully volume will help make up for the lack of big plays with Stafford out. Best is a true feature back getting goal line carries, but he got very little room to run. Against a healthy Chicago defense, that wasn't a big surprise. Better days should be ahead. Cutler put up a huge stat-line, and you can thank Mike Martz for that. He didn't have much time, and while some panic is necessary, you can't just look at the "Lions" and assume the worst as their defensive line is much improved. He was also on the wrong page with his receiver on numerous occasions, and hopefully that will be rectified with time. Forte was a monster in the passing game, and it is clear that he's healthy again. He's a good RB2.
Cincinnati vs. New England - Brady looked great, and he would have had a huge game had it not gotten out of hand so fast. Welker looks healthy, and he was targeted plenty. This offense will be very good this year, but it's clear the entire backfield can be ignored. Palmer had a huge stat line, but don't be fooled into thinking Palmer is back to pre-elbow injury form. He racked up huge numbers during blow out time when he was throwing on every down, but he simply doesn't have that same arm strength anymore. Owens was also the preferred target before garbage time when Palmer locked onto Ochocinco. I'm not complete ruling out somewhat of a Palmer revival, but I still don't think he's gonna be QB1 material this year. We'll see. Benson was mostly taken out of the game thanks to the score, but Bernard Scott did more with less touches. Scott is a play maker and might force his way into a bigger piece of the pie.
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay - Peyton Hillis surprisingly started, and then he also dominated short yardage and goal line work. James Harrison can't be started as he's right back into a time share. Mike Williams looked very good and worth the preseason hype. Once Freeman gets over his thumb injury, Williams will be a fantasy asset. Cadillac Williams looked solid, but he simply doesn't have his speed anymore. Kareem Huggins surprisingly didn't receive a single carry as Earnest Graham was the 2nd RB. If that happens again, you should consider dropping Huggins and finding another sleeper.
San Francisco vs. Seattle - Alex Smith looked like a disaster, although his top WR Michael Crabtree seemed rather disinterested in helping him out, or even being on the football field. I'm starting to get a feeling that Smith is going to be an issue for this offense. Gore got nothing going, but SF simply wasn't ready to play this game. Mike Williams is worth owning from Seattle, and he does indeed look revived. The rest of the offense is worth ignoring for now. Keep the name Deon Butler in the back of your mind in case he wins a job.
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb looked awful being a disgusting offensive line, and then a concussion ended his day and might keep him out for a couple weeks. Michael Vick is most definitely back, and given the shape of Philly's line, he honestly makes better sense as the starting QB. Reid is standing behind Kolb for now, but if Kolb is out for a couple weeks and Vick could play his way into the starting job whether Reid wants to admit it for now. Leonard Weaver suffered a gruesome knee injury and is out for the season, so McCoy could pick up some red zone touches now. He's got a chance to exceed my expectations. Ryan Grant suffered an ankle injury, and he might be out at least a week. The passing attack wasn't as explosive as they were in the preseason, but Philly is a really tough matchup. Finely faced a lot of physicality, but expect GB to adjust and get him open more often. Explosive days are ahead.
Arizona vs. St. Louis - Derek Anderson looked exactly as advertised, and I can't imagine him lasting the season as the starter. Fitzgerald's knee flared up, and it's possible he's in for a slow start. Hopefully he'll get enough TDs to help offset the inevitable drop in yardage he'll suffer from this season. Tim Hightower started for the injured Beanie Wells, and Hightower looked decent, but fumbled twice and will lose feature back duties to Wells once he returns. Bradford looked pretty good for St. Louis despite the interceptions, and he was allowed to throw an awful lot. He'll have some good days and some bad days. Mark Clayton was his favorite receiver and might be the best WR on this team this year. Steven Jackson was productive with his touches and looked healthy. He should be a reliable low-end RB1 this year.
Dallas vs. Washington - This game was a sloppy mess as the defenses dominated. Dallas attempted to offset the offensive line injuries with a lot of short passing, but it bogged down the offense and hurt their ability to move the football. Romo will have better days ahead, and Miles Austin was a monster. He should be a great WR1 this season. Dez Bryant is so much better than Roy Williams already that it's ridiculous. He'll be starting very, very soon. Marion Barber looked healthy and explosive again, but a lack of touches will hurt his value. Still, he should be a solid RB3 this year. Felix Jones saw similar touches, but he's going to need to hit on big plays in order to have fantasy value. He also is nothing more than a RB3. McNabb's ankle looked healthy, and he'll need his mobility to offset his still-gelling line. The Skins badly need another WR as Moss and Cooley are their only capable receivers. Expect lots of targets for them this season, and they should really consider getting Davis more involved. It's clear Davis is not a threat to Cooley, however. Portis got his touches, but he's not explosive at all anymore. He's a low upside RB3.
Baltimore vs. NY Jets - As expected, this was a defensive slugfest, and the only player who posted good stats was Boldin. He's probably not going to play 16 game again, but he looked great and already showed great chemistry with Flacco. Heap also had a big game, but he's nothing more than a TE2 with Mason and TJ Housh also demanding targets. Ray Rice had a rough day, but got plenty of touches. No worries here, but this game again reminded everyone that McGahee is the goal line back. Shonn Greene had a nightmare first game, and his owners should be in full panic mode. He didn't just struggle against a mighty run defense, he flat out played horrible with 2 fumbles and a big dropped pass. LT might see more touches for the immediate future as he looked very good. The Jets passing game can be completely ignore until Sanchez shows a willingness to look downfield.
San Diego vs. Kansas City - The Bolts offense walked into an unexpected buzzsaw in KC and looked pretty lost most of the night. Mathews looked pretty solid, but he was stripped for a fumble in the first half. The announcers brought up a great point that often times rookie RBs lose their "swagger" after an early fumble, so hopefully Mathews can shake it off. Defenses should completely blanket Gates because Rivers just doesn't look comfortable throwing to anyone else yet. Todd Haley is an asshole. Thomas Jones played for 2 series and then the first carry of the 3rd series, but then Charles came in and ran for a first down and then a 56 yard TD. The next series? Thomas Jones was back out there again for the first play, and McCluster even got a carry. If this is how he's going to use Charles, then you can't start him until he's willing to consistently put his best players on the field. Charles obviously cannot sustain fantasy numbers without touches. The KC offensive line cannot pass protect, and it's dragging down the entire passing game. I'm really pissed I screwed myself into taking Bowe again this year.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Isaac Redman Wins PIT Short Yardage Role (Not Really?)
Pittsburgh announced today that RB Isaac Redman will get "first crack" at the short yardage role.
Fantasy Impact: It was nice of Pittsburgh to announce this right after the vast majority of fantasy owners, but I've been stating all along that this was an unsettled situation. This obviously delivers a blow to Rashard Mendenhall's fantasy value. Mendenhall will be the 3rd down RB, so he's going to get plenty of touches as the primary ball carrier and primary pass catcher out of the backfield. However, since we all know TDs are very important in fantasy football, it dulls Mendenhall's upside for this season. It's hard to saw what happened in practice, so who knows if Mendenhall lost the job, or they just really love Redman. I assume it was moreso the later as Redman did earn the nickname "Redzone" last preseason. At any rate, I think Mendenhall is still a top 10 RB, but don't get pissed off when Redman replaces him inside the 5.
**EDIT**: A new report has just come out that Mendenhall will maintain goal line duties. Odds are that he won't get every short yardage and goal line carry with Redman taking the ones that he does not get. This is, obviously, good news for Mendenhall's fantasy value. He should end up with a nice amount of TDs, and he's a threat to score 10 or so this year.
**EDIT**: A new report has just come out that Mendenhall will maintain goal line duties. Odds are that he won't get every short yardage and goal line carry with Redman taking the ones that he does not get. This is, obviously, good news for Mendenhall's fantasy value. He should end up with a nice amount of TDs, and he's a threat to score 10 or so this year.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Final Draft Guide Update
I have made my final revisions to my draft guide now that the preseason is over. The biggest stories have been the release and then signing of T.J. Housmandzadeh, although he carries no fantasy value as the 3rd WR for Baltimore, and Hardesty's injury, which has given Jerome Harrison a lot more fantasy value.
I've made edits all over the guide.
I've made edits all over the guide.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Browns RB Montario Hardesty Tears ACL
Cleveland Browns RB Montario Hardesty tore his ACL during the preseason game against the Bears last night.
Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.
Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
My Big Draft
I had my most important league's draft last night, so I wanted to take a step back, examine the results, and see how things went. It's a 12 team league with a standard starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST. Scoring is standard as well with 30 passing yards/1 point, 10 rushing.receiving yards/1 point, 6 points for TDs, and -2 for turnovers. I picked 5th overall.
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Rams WR Donnie Avery Suffers Knee Injury
St. Louis Rams WR Donnie Avery suffered a serious knee injury this evening in his preseason game with the Patriots. Given the nature of the injury, I'm pretty sure he tore his ACL.
Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.
Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.
500th Post: Leinart Sucks More And Gets Demoted
I noticed that this is my 500th on post here. So, for the none of you who follow this, thanks for your support. I'd still be here if it weren't for you.
Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.
Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.
Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.
Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.
WR5 Draft Guide Update 2
I removed Golden Tate. After a very strong start to the offseason, he's fallen behind and will not start when the year begins. He's working on special teams now to increase his gameday value. He's someone to keep an eye on when the regular season begins, but he's not draftable.
I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.
I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.
I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.
I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Sidney Rice Undergoes Hip Surgery
Minnesota WR Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery, and he is expected to be sidelined for at least half of the season.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Matt Leinart Sucks
Yeah, that's about it. He's starting to lose the locker room, and there's no guaranty he's going to last this season as the starter. In fact, it's likely. He's not worth drafting as a QB2, and I'll update my draft guide accordingly.
2010 Preseason Backfield Report Update
I've made updates to the backfield report, so take a gander at teams you're keeping an eye on for the latest information. Good times!
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Brett Favre Returns
It's not official yet, but Brett Favre will be returning to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. It's hardly a surprise, but it gives some concrete information from which to draft Vikings' players. The Vikings will no doubt welcome him back with open arms as they're a Super Bowl contender with him.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Buffalo's RB Situation
I wanted to sum up the mess that is Buffalo's backfield currently. Fred Jackson has broken a bone in his hand, and he is out for the rest of the preseason. He is also in danger of missing a regular season game or two. He was heading into the season as the lead back in this mess, but he is now in danger of losing that role. Marshawn Lynch sprained his ankle, but he is expected back as soon as the last preseason game. C.J. Spiller has a huge opportunity to seize the starting job the next couple weeks. I had originally ranked him as overrated because of all the veteran competition, but he is in complete control of his destiny. He's not going to be a goal line back, so his upside is limited, but he's comparable to someone like Jamaal Charles last season. His play-making ability would fit well into a team that does not have a solid offensive line nor a passing game. I would draft Spiller the first of the three now as I think his talent will win out, and he's got the best upside as a RB3. I wouldn't take Jackson as anything more than a RB4. Lynch is mostly an afterthought. I'm curious to see how Spiller does the next couple weeks.
49ers Sign RB Brian Westbrook
The 49ers signed RB Brian Westbook today. This was a bit surprising after hearing the Rams and Redskins were the front runners to sign Westbrook. Ultimately though, the Rams were a rough fit because they play on turf, which would have been hell on Westbrook's knees, and they are in no shape to contend. The Redskins were a better fit because the play on grass and are closer to contention, but they also have like 8 billion 30+ year old RBs on their team. The 49ers offered both a grass surface and are probably the preseason favorites to win the wide open NFL West.
Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.
Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
2010 Preseason Backfield Report
With the preseason underway and injuries already occurring, I want to go through each team's backfield situation and update things along the way. I will be skipping teams with settled backfields like Tennessee, Minnesota, etc. as their situation is obvious.
Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.
New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.
New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.
Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.
Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.
Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.
Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.
Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.
Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.
New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.
Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.
Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.
New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.
Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.
Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.
Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:
1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.
2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.
3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.
There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.
Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.
New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.
New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.
Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.
Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.
Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.
Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.
Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.
Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.
New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.
Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.
Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.
New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.
Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.
Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.
Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:
1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.
2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.
3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.
There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.
Monday, August 9, 2010
WR5 Draft Guide Update
I have made some slight updates to the WR5 section. I have removed Devin Thomas. He's still running with the third stringers, and he's supposedly having a hard time separating in practice. He's definitely a name to keep in mind, but he's yet again having an unimpressive training camp. I have also removed Arrelious Benn. Tampa Bay is not going to produce 2 starting fantasy WRs, and Mike Williams has looked far more impressive. Williams is a definite starter as to where Benn is still battling for a starting job.
Finally, Johnny Knox's ADP is shooting up draft boards for good reason. He's a very talented WR who, by all accounts, is having an outstanding offseason. He's acclimated very well to Mike Martz's offense, and his skill set is a perfect fit. Like I mentioned in his section, I would have no problem drafting him in the 8th or 9th round as a 3rd WR. I definitely want him on my teams this season.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Brett Favre Says He Will Not Return
Breaking news has Brett Favre informing Vikings' team officials that he will not return this season, citing his ankle as a continued problem. Given this is Brett Favre and how he loves to change his mind to keep himself in the media, I'm sure this isn't the last of the story. For the sake of fantasy football, however, all Vikings outside of Adrian Peterson need to be immediately downgraded until this situation is figured out. Sidney Rice was already overrated because of his continued hip problems, but this will affect Harvin, Berrian, and Shiancoe quite a bit as well should Favre not play. Rice is somewhere between a WR2/3 now, Harvin is a risky WR3, and Berrian is nothing more than a late flier. I was already avoiding Shiancoe as anything other than a TE2, and I wouldn't bother drafting him at all now. Adrian Peterson will resume being the sole focal point of the offense, so I would still take him in the top two picks.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Draft Guide Updates
I made updates to both Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe as I've read nothing but great news about Bowe's dedication this offseason. That's big news considering that has been his biggest enemy in his career. I made updates to both Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens in light of Owens' signing in Cincinnati. Finally, I made updates to both Knowshon Moreno and Dez Bryant as they suffered noteworthy injuries in practice over the weekend.
I completed my draft guide last week, but I will make updates as necessary as news and injuries occur. Enjoy!
I completed my draft guide last week, but I will make updates as necessary as news and injuries occur. Enjoy!
Sunday, July 25, 2010
2010 TE2 Value Analysis
I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier TE2 pick rather than list everyone:
Greg Olsen - It's good to see fantasy nation being smart this year. Mike Martz kills the fantasy value of TEs because he simply values them far more as a blocker than a receiver. Olsen is solely a backup, but his talent is worth a late round flier to see if he can buck the trend.
Dustin Keller - He's a very good young pass catcher at the TE spot, but with the run-first offense combined with the acquisition of Santonio Holmes, there simply won't be enough targets for him to consistently be a fantasy producer. Still, like Olsen, his talent is good enough for a stash.
John Carlson - I'm a big fan of Carlson this year, but I think he's better as a backup to mitigate the risk. He's a very talented pass catcher, but he was mostly used as a blocker last year. With a lower price tag this season, I think Carlson could turn into a TE1 as Carroll will definitely use him more as a receiver after signing Chris Baker to handle blocking duties. He's an ideal TE2.
Heath Miller - He's being buried in drafts this year, but he had a very solid 2009 season. He'll probably start slow until Ben Roethlisberger returns, but he could be valuable depth after that. He's a good stash.
Ben Watson - Watson continuously disappointed in New England despite excellent talent, drawing ire from scouts saying that he's simply not a very good football player. However, he's landed on a team that has very little in terms of receiving talent, and someone will have to catch the ball. He's worth an end-of-draft flier to see if the light turns on for him thanks to a lack of better receiving options.
Tony Scheffler - Scheffler got buried last season by Josh McDaniels whose offense simply does not use the TE much. Detroit traded for him, and while Brandon Pettigrew remains a threat for snaps, I don't think they acquired him to sit on the bench. He's projects more as a slot receiver in Detroit's improved offense, and he could re-emerge as a fantasy threat like he did in Denver during Cutler's final season there. He's another solid TE2 stash.
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